East Africa Briefing

East Africa Briefing
February 2015
January at a Glance
February 2015
SUDAN, January 30: 115 villages in North Darfur were evacuated or
burned to the ground at the hands of the Janjaweed, the Sudanese
militia group responsible for over 10 years’ worth of ethnic cleansing in
western Sudan, now reincarnated as the Rapid Support Force (RSF).
DJIBOUTI, January 12: It was announced that Djibouti will be
sending an additional 1000 troops to Somalia to serve with the
African Union’s Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in the fight against
Al Shabab. Djibouti currently has 1950 troops serving in the 22,000
strong peacekeeping mission.
Somalia, January 27:
Zakria Ismail Hersi, a senior
leader in Somalia extremist movement Al Shabab,
announced his resignation
from the group, in a move
that was welcomed by the
Somali Government.
South Sudan, January 27: Some 3000 child soldiers were released
in South Sudan in what has been hailed as one of the largest ever
demobilizations of children in a conflict zone. In the last year alone,
12,000 children, mostly boys, have been recruited and used as soldiers
by armed forces and groups in South Sudan.
Uganda, January 26: Ex Lord’s Resistance Army leader Dominic
Ogwen appeared in the dock at the International Criminal Court
in The Hague to face war crimes charges. He faces a total of seven
counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes, including murder
and enslavement.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO, January 21: Violence
erupted in Kinshasa as anti-government protesters rallied against legislation set to extend the presidential term of Joseph Kabila. At least 42
people are believed to have died in the four days of violence.
RWANDA, January 2: The six month grace period for the full
and unconditional surrender of the Democratic Forces for the
Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) armed group expired on January 2.
There are an estimated 1400 FDLR rebels still operating in eastern
DRC, contributing to the ongoing violence which has plagued the
Great Lakes region for over 20 years.
Zambia, January 25: After weeks of political wrangling and
tensions, patriotic front leader Edgar Lungu was sworn in as Zambia’s new president. Lungu secured 48.3 percent of the vote, compared to the 46.7 percent gained by his main opponent, Hakainde
Hichilema of the United Party for National Development.
Kenya, January 11:
Unknown gunmen killed a
church official in Majengo,
Mombasa county. It is
believed the assailants could
be members of active Islamic
extremist cells operating along
Kenya’s eastern coast.
Regional Overview
by Geoff Pugh, CC BY-2.0 via Flickr
February 2015
Children collecting water - South Sudan
Executive Summary
Key Trends
•The risk of violence increases in Mozambique, as
opposition leader Afonso Dhlakama threatens to
create an autonomous state in the north of the
country.
•Hopes are high for an end to the conflict in South
Sudan, as warring leaders take steps towards signing a comprehensive peace agreement.
250
•Falling global oil prices are damaging East Africa’s oil
prospects as investors appear reluctant to invest in
new critical infrastructure projects.
•Malawi is facing a year of economic difficulty as
flooding destroys cash crops and international agencies continue to refuse to resume aid donations amid
accusations of high-level corruption.
221
200
150
100
0
52
40
50
7
2
ETHIOPIA
KENYA
Reported Violent Incidents
6
MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE SOMALIA
SOUTH
SUDAN
13
9
TANZANIA
UGANDA
19
ZAMBIA
Source: EI, ACLED data
Politics and Security
February 2015
Mozambique
Mozambique’s New Cabinet Angers Former Rebels
include Dhlakama or any Renamo representatives has been
seen by the rebels as a controversial move and a signal that
Nyusi is not committed to a peaceful, inclusive future for
Mozambique. In the wake of this announcement Dhlakama
revealed his plans to establish an autonomous region in
areas of central and northern Mozambique, incorporating
the provinces of Sofala, Manica, Tete, Zambezia, Nampula
and Niassa, where he polled higher than Nyusi. The economic issues that continue to plague Mozambique are likely
playing a significant role in Renamo’s renewed popularity in
these areas, meaning Dhlakama may well find a receptive
audience in the northern regions. Despite Mozambique
being set to be one of the
largest global producer
of liquefied natural gas
by 2018, behind only the
US and Russia, the vast
majority of Mozambicans,
particularly those in the
north where the majority
of exploration is concentrated, have seen few
signs that this new found
prosperity will trickle down
to the general population.
by Voice of America, Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons
Mozambique’s new president was
sworn into office this month in a
controversial move which saw the
main opposition party boycott the
ceremony. Filipe Nyusi, leader of
the ruling Frelimo party, returned
57 percent of the vote to take over from outgoing president Armando Guebuza on January 15, extending Frelimo’s
40-year hold on power in the former Portuguese colony.
However, the former rebel movement turned political party,
Renamo, led by Afonso Dhlakama, are continuing to reject
the results of October’s elections, claiming the vote was
fraudulent and accusing Nyusi
of rescinding on his pledge
to promote peace. Dhlakama
has now threatened to split
the country in two and form a
parallel government, in a move
which could threaten Mozambican stability and raise concerns for international investors
looking to reap the rewards of
Mozambique’s developing oil
and gas industry.
Although Dhlakama has contested every election since the
Although dialogue
culmination of the 1977-1992
between Renamo and the
civil war between Frelimo and
government has resumed
Renamo, the critical difference
once again, this is the 91st
Mozambique’s President Armando Guebuza and
this time is the longstanding
round of talks since April
RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama
leader’s apparent resurgence
2013 and it is likely the
in popularity, particularly in the under-developed central and
government will continue to reject Renamo demands for
northern parts of the country. He gained 37 percent of the
senior military and governmental positions. While it remains
2014 vote, more than double the 16 percent he received in
to be seen whether Dhlakama will act on his plan to form
2009, with Renamo winning 89 assembly seats, up from 51.
a parallel government, further violence cannot be ruled out
As a result, Renamo was expecting a significant presence in
in the short term, particularly in the central and northern
Nyusi’s newly formed cabinet, however the decision not to
regions of the county.
Politics and Security
February 2015
South Sudan
South Sudan Leaders Sign Peace Agreement
Amid Warnings of Tougher Sanctions
1.5 million have been displaced and many more are struggling with crippling food insecurity across the country.
Details of this latest agreement have not yet been made
public, but it is believed to set out how the two leaders would share power once an interim government is
formed, with Kiir remaining as President and Machar
re-adopting the Vice President role. The two sides need
to agree on a provisional government ahead of July’s
elections, when Kiir’s presidential term will come to an
end, as well as a range of comprehensive political reforms
which are needed to facilitate the conduct of the vote.
However, the rebels have warned that many more details
need to be discussed before the deal can be labelled a
“power-sharing” agreement, and that disagreements
remain over the proposed structure of the transitional
government and division of responsibilities within the
administration. Despite these concerns and South Sudan’s
history of failed ceasefires, regional and international observers seem confident that these discussions will mark a
turning point in the history of the world’s newest country.
It is also hoped that, even if either side considers a return
to violence, the threat of strict sanctions will be enough to
discourage the outbreak of further fighting.
by Al Jazeera CC BY-SA-2.0 via Flickr
South Sudan’s President Salva
Kiir and rebel commander Riek
Machar have signed another deal
committing to end the conflict
that has devastated the country since December 2013.
Under the terms of the agreement a complete cessation of
hostilities will begin on February 2, ahead of a final round
of talks on February 20 which mediators are hoping will
finally result in a comprehensive and lasting conclusion
to the crisis. In light of the two sides’ apparent inability to
uphold previous pledges to halt the fighting, the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) and African Union (AU)
have warned that South Sudan will face tough sanctions if
Kiir and Machar fail again. Previously, the government and
rebels have signed at least three peace deals which were
quickly broken.
Clashes in South Sudan erupted several months after Kiir’s
decision to dismiss his entire cabinet, including his Vice
President Machar, whom he accused of plotting a coup
against him. Machar denied the allegations and raised a
rebel force, largely comprised of fighters from his Nuer ethnic group, to fight government troops. More than 10,000
people have died in the 13 months of fighting, about
South Sudan’s Flag
Business and Regulation
February 2015
East African Community
Falling Global Oil Prices are Damaging
East Africa’s Oil Prospects
The World Bank’s recently
released 2015 Global Economic Prospect Report has
highlighted East Africa as a ‘new frontier’ for economic growth, predicting that several low-income
countries in the region may graduate to middle-income status thanks to substantial oil and gas discoveries. However, the report also warns that falling oil
prices and a weak global economy may mean that
East Africa’s oil dreams will now only be realized at
the end of the decade, into 2020 and beyond, and
not by 2017 as had previously been hoped.
Global oil prices have dropped sharply over the past
seven months by more than half since June 2014.
With projections pointing to further declines thanks
to weakening demand, an unstable Russian economy
and surging levels of US production, East Africa’s
oil boom may be delayed for at least another five
years. The East African Community (EAC) countries of
Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania are among those hoping
that their recently discovered oil reserves will be able
to increase national revenues and kick-start development across the region. For example, in 2013, Uganda
estimated the value of its oil at $150 billion, but at
that time a barrel was worth over $110, rather than
the $41 it is worth today. However, if recent speculations, which suggest that oil may never rise above
$100 per barrel again, prove correct, EAC member
countries may have to rethink their future plans,
which currently tie national and regional development to the profitable production and exportation of
oil.
As well as the falling price of oil, East Africa’s exports
are currently dominated by agricultural commodities
and there is an absence of the infrastructure required
for oil production and distribution, such as roads,
ports, refineries and pipelines. With little to no capital
to devote to these critical projects, EAC members will
be reliant on significant external investment to assist
the development of necessary infrastructure. However, tumbling oil prices are likely to make international investors reluctant to embark on new projects
in the EAC, meaning that oil production in East Africa
may be delayed as investors wait for the market to
grow again and seek assurance that they will not be
investing in a commodity that may further decline
in value. This could result in a lost decade for East
Africa’s oil prospects at a time when oil revenue is
desperately needed to help EAC members make the
transition from a low to middle-income countries.
Business and Regulation
February 2015
Malawi
Is Malawi Heading for an Economic Disaster
Following Devastating Floods?
So far over 200 people are believed to have died and
another 200,000 have been displaced in the floods,
which have been declared the worst to hit the country since 1964. 15 of Malawi’s 28 national districts
have been declared disaster zones by President Peter
Mutharika. While floods occur annually in Malawi, this
year’s rainfall was unprecedented and the government
has been criticized for being under prepared to deal
with the emergency. The floods have destroyed homes,
infrastructure and livestock, swept away thousands
of hectares of cultivated land and devastated critical
tea, maize and tobacco
crops, as well as closing
major roads and causing
flight cancellations. It has
also led to a 35 percent
reduction in electricity
production, meaning
many small and medium
sized businesses are
unable to open as they
cannot afford the necessary generators. The
International Monetary
Fund had previously predicted a GDP growth rate
of 5.8 percent for Malawi in 2015, thanks to a stabilizing exchange rate and higher crop production levels in
2014. However, this now seems unlikely.
by Lars Plougmann,CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Economists have raised the
alarm as Malawi struggles to
cope with widespread flooding
and a shortfall in international
funding. The south-eastern African nation has declared a state of emergency following
weeks of heavy rains which
have destroyed a large
portion of the country’s
essential cash crops. Malawi’s economy is heavily
reliant on agriculture, with
more than one-third of
the country’s GDP and 90
percent of export revenues agrarian based. The
country’s economy has also
historically been dependent
on a substantial amount
of foreign aid, however in
Hauling water in Malawi
the wake of the ‘Cashgate’
scandal of 2013, in which more than $30 million was
looted from state coffers, international partners’ suspended donations, leaving Malawi’s national budget with
a 40 percent deficit. So far, the Malawian government
has not heeded calls from financial experts to diversify
the economy to prevent it being overly dependent on
agriculture and donors and there are concerns that these
latest floods may be the catalyst for economic disaster in
a country already struggling in the face of a huge funding shortfall.
Instead, the government is struggling to raise the $81
million of humanitarian aid needed to support flood
survivors; just $2 million has been pledged so far.
With international agencies still flatly refusing to deal
with the Malawian government (many are instead
choosing to directly fund locally operating NGOs), it
seems safe to assume the resumption of regular aid
donations to Malawi is still some way off. With cash
crops destroyed, businesses unable to operate, a raft
of socio-economic challenges, a growing humanitarian disaster and a huge funding shortfall to deal with,
Malawi is already bracing itself for a difficult 2015.
Regional Forecast
February 2015
Upcoming Key Events
Somalia
As AMISOM continues offensives
against Al Shabab in southern Somalia,
there is an increased risk of violence in
affected areas. Recent air strikes have
been reported in Dinsoor and Saacow, and fighting is likely to continue
throughout February.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC) AND Rwanda
Troops in the DRC have reportedly launched a military offensive
against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)
rebel fighters in the east of the country, with logistical support
from the United Nations. Dealing with the FDLR is seen as a key
step to ending decades of conflict in the Great Lakes region. Previous fighting has frequently spilled over the Congolese border into
western Rwanda and occasionally into Uganda, and there is an
increased risk of violence in these areas in the coming weeks.
SOMALIA
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC
OF CONGO
KENYA
RWANDA
MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique
Following Dhlakama’s pledge to set up
the “Republic of Central and Northern
Mozambique” across the provinces of
Sofala, Manica, Tete, Zambezia, Nampula and Niass, there is the potential for
further violence in northern and central
Mozambique. Although Dhlakama has
yet to reveal how he is planning to
create this autonomous state, he has
promised that it will be formed in the
near future and that the rebels will fight
Frelimo for control of the region.
Kenya
The trial of Kenyan Vice President
William Ruto has been adjourned for
two weeks and is now set to resume
on February 23. Ruto stands accused
of crimes against humanity, committed
during Kenya’s 2007-2008 post-election violence. The International Criminal Court (ICC) dropped their case
against President Uhuru Kenyatta late
last year citing bribery, intimidation of
witnesses and a lack of cooperation
by the Kenyan Government. There are
concerns that, should the ICC convict
Ruto, further protests and violence will
follow and a number of Kenyan elders
have called on the ICC to drop Ruto’s
case in the interests of national unity
and peace.
Editor: James Borrelli
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