Global Change Research in the Carpathian Mountain

Mountain Research and Development (MRD)
An international, peer-reviewed open access journal
published by the International Mountain Society (IMS)
www.mrd-journal.org
MountainNotes
Global Change Research in the Carpathian
Mountain Region
Astrid Björnsen Gurung1, Anita Bokwa2, Wojciech Chełmicki2, Marine Elbakidze3, Manuela Hirschmugl 4*, Patrick Hostert5,
Pierre Ibisch6, Jacek Kozak2, Tobias Kuemmerle7, Elena Matei8, Katarzyna Ostapowicz2, Joanna Pociask-Karteczka2,
Lars Schmidt6, Sebastian van der Linden5, and Marc Zebisch9
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
1
Mountain Research Initiative (Europe), IGF Innsbruck, Austria
2
Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland
3
Ivan Franko University of Lviv, Ukraine
4
Joanneum Research, Graz, Austria
5
Geomatics Lab, Geography Department, Humboldt–Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
6
Faculty of Forest and Environment, University of Applied Sciences Eberswalde, Eberswalde, Germany
7
Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Wisconsin, USA
8
Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
9
European Academy, Bolzano, Italy
Open access article: please credit the authors and the full source.
The Carpathian Mountains in Europe
are a biodiversity hot spot; harbor many
relatively undisturbed ecosystems; and
are still rich in seminatural, traditional
landscapes. Since the fall of the Iron
Curtain, the Carpathians have
experienced widespread land use change,
affecting biodiversity and ecosystem
services. Climate change, as an
additional driver, may increase the effect
of such changes in the future. Based on a
workshop organized by the Science for
the Carpathians network, this paper
reviews the current status of global
change research in the Carpathians,
identifies knowledge gaps, and suggests
avenues for future research.
Introduction
The Carpathians are Europe’s largest
mountain range, spanning Austria,
Slovakia, the Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Ukraine, Romania,
and Serbia (Ruffini et al 2006). They
hold tributaries of four main
European watersheds and, although
not glaciated, include distinctly
alpine regions (eg Tatra Mountains,
Fagaras). The region is important for
biodiversity, hosting the largest
unmanaged old-growth (‘‘virgin’’)
forests of Western and Central
Europe, many endemic species, and
Europe’s largest wolf and brown bear
populations (Csagoly 2007). Diverse
cultural landscapes offer important
ecosystem services to both local and
national economies, including
agriculture, timber production, and
tourism.
The fall of the Iron Curtain in
1989 profoundly changed Carpathian
societies and economies (Turnock
2002). The complexity of recent
history; the coexistence of rapidly
developing and marginal areas;
emerging conflicts between nature
conservation and tourism, industry,
and transportation; and drastic
changes in governance systems
challenge the region’s sustainable
development, especially in view of
increasing vulnerability due to
climate change (Hostert et al 2008).
In response to these challenges,
the Carpathian countries issued the
Framework Convention on the
Protection and Sustainable
Development of the Carpathians
(Carpathian Convention) in Kiev,
Ukraine, on 22 May 2003, to promote
the region’s sustainable development.
Research needs to provide the
scientific foundation for stakeholders
and policy-makers to facilitate this
development. The Interim
Secretariat for the Carpathian
Convention therefore encouraged
scientists from within and outside the
Carpathians at the Forum Alpinum
2007 to lead research efforts, which
Mountain Research and Development Vol 29 No 3 Aug 2009: 282–288
282
brought forth the regional science
network Science for the Carpathians
(S4C) at a follow-up meeting at the
European Academy (EURAC) in
Bolzano, Italy. S4C was officially
launched during a workshop at the
Institute of Geography and Spatial
Management (IG&SM), Jagiellonian
University, Kraków, Poland, in May
2008.
This paper summarizes the
outcomes of this workshop by
reviewing the current status of global
change research in the Carpathians
in the fields of (1) climate, (2) water,
(3) land use and land cover change
(LUCC) and forestry, (4) biodiversity
and conservation, (5) tourism, and (6)
ecosystem services. By identifying
main research gaps, it also provides a
basis for developing a Carpathian
research strategy similar to the
Research Strategy for Global Change
in Mountain Regions (Björnsen
Gurung 2005).
Current status of global
change research
Climate
The majority of the mainly national
climatological projects have focused
on single countries and areas not
representative of the Carpathians as
a whole. Bilateral projects
implemented between Poland and
http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1659/mrd.1105 ß 2009 by the authors
MountainNotes
the former Czechoslovakia resulted
in a climatic monograph on the Tatra
Mountains (Koncek 1974; Niedźwiedź
1992). In 1981–1982, the Polish–
Czechoslovakian research program
TATREX investigated the influence of
mountains on the atmosphere. After
1994, the national meteorological
services of both countries continued
these studies within the project
Climate Changes and Variability in
the Western Carpathians.
International cooperation during that
time was often limited to cyclic
conferences on Carpathian
meteorology organized in parallel
with the International Conferences on
Alpine Meteorology (ObrebskaStarkel 1983).
At the European scale, regions of
the Carpathians have been included in
projects dealing with mountain
climates. Various studies showed
warming in the annual temperature
variability from 1962 to 2000 (eg 0.3–
0.5uC in the Bucegi Mountains, 0.5–
0.7uC in the Semenic Mountains, and
0.8–0.9uC in the southern Carpathians
and Apuseni Mountains; Csagoly
2007). However, a pan-Carpathian
research program is lacking.
Climatological maps for the whole
Carpathians are not available, as no
complete, international climatological
database with long-term monitoring
results exists. The Carpathians
Environment Outlook characterizes
the Carpathian climate on the basis of
few nonrepresentative case studies
(Csagoly 2007).
Given the geographical extent and
climate variability, there is a great need
to (1) establish a joint, international
climatological database of long-term
data; (2) set up additional
meteorological stations at higher
altitudes; and (3) make data freely
available for scientists (in post-Socialist
countries meteorological data are still
not publicly available). In parallel,
existing case studies should be
coordinated at the international level
to establish common research
protocols. This approach would
provide a more comprehensive
understanding of Carpathian climate,
FIGURE 1 Trend in ice cover duration in the Morskie Oko Lake, High Tatra
Mountains, 1971–2005. (Graph by A. Choiński and J. Pociask-Karteczka)
which is necessary for developing and
verifying regional climate models.
Water systems
The frequency of extreme
hydrological events in the
Carpathians has been increasing over
the last decades and is likely
connected to recent climate changes.
Floods often jeopardize people’s
safety and cause economic loss (eg in
agriculture or infrastructure).
Compared to floods, environmental
and economic consequences of
droughts are more substantial, but
also difficult to mitigate (Tallaksen
and van Lanen 2004). Snowmelt
during spring and summer is an
important component of the
hydrological cycle, but snow depth
has decreased in the eastern and
southwestern Carpathians (related to
the tendency toward the positive
phase of the North Atlantic
Oscillation, resulting in warmer
winters; Bojariu and Dinu 2007).
Snow-cover analysis in the
southeastern part of the Carpathians
from 1962 to 2001 does not reveal
significant trends in snow-water
equivalents. However, differences
between snow-rich and snow-poor
winters were more extreme in the
period 1982–2001 than in 1962–
283
1981. Furthermore, duration of ice
cover and ice thickness have recently
been reported as decreasing in the
High Tatra mountain lakes
(Figure 1).
Average annual precipitation
increased slightly in the Romanian
and Czech Carpathians from 1991 to
2005, while winter precipitation
decreased in the mountains after
1970 (Busuioc and von Storch 1996).
Despite positive precipitation trends,
maximum runoff in the Carpathian
basins in Poland remained relatively
stable (Pociask-Karteczka and
Nieckarz 2006), although greater
variability in extreme precipitation
events was observed in the period
1995–2006 than previously
(Niedźwiedź et al 2006).
To better understand
hydrological systems in the
Carpathians, research should first
focus on precipitation and runoff
(amount, variability, intensity,
frequency, temporal and spatial
distribution), taking into account
data from the entire Carpathian
range. Furthermore, research needs
to develop adaptation and mitigation
strategies for potential changes in
water resources. Such strategies will
be required at regional and national
levels.
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FIGURE 2 (A) Large-scale clear-cutting in Rakchiv district, Ukraine; (B) forest expansion on former
farmland in the Polish Bieszczady Mountains. (Photos by P. Ibisch and T.
Kuemmerle, respectively)
Land use and land cover change
and forestry
LUCC is widespread in the
Carpathians, mainly due to
transformations of land use systems
after 1990 (eg land reforms, policy
changes, socioeconomic
transformation, accession to the
European Union [EU], international
agreements) and land use legacies
from Austro-Hungarian and Socialist
times. Main processes include
farmland abandonment (and forest
expansion; Figure 2A) and
agricultural parcelization (Turnock
2002; Kuemmerle et al 2008). In some
parts, forest cover has been reduced
due to logging (Figure 2B),
infrastructure development, or
urban sprawl (Turnock 2002; Kozak
et al 2007b; Kuemmerle et al 2007).
LUCC research in the
Carpathians has so far mainly
focused on local and regional scales.
Contemporary statistical data from
standard surveys are available for all
Carpathians within the EU, but
consistent data for Ukraine and
Serbia and pre-1990 data are largely
lacking. More importantly, panCarpathian studies are missing.
Short-term LUCC research (,10
years) mostly focused on land cover
conversions, especially concerning
forest disturbance. Extreme events
such as windstorms and pests appear
284
especially widespread in spruce
monocultures established during the
last 100 to 200 years. Pollution has
resulted in a deterioration of forest
health (Badea et al 2004), sometimes
resulting in forest dieback (Grodzki
2007). Excessive forest exploitation
occurred under Socialism and
continued in some places after 1989,
and illegal logging increased in the
Ukrainian Carpathians (Kuemmerle
et al 2007). At medium term time
scales (10–50 years), remote sensing
helped to map farmland
abandonment and forest expansion
(Kozak et al 2007b; Kuemmerle et al
2008). Long-term studies of LUCC
suggest a slow forest transition in the
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FIGURE 3 The endemic Carpathian blue slug, Bielzia coerulans. (Photo by P. Ibisch)
Carpathians (Kozak et al 2007a); for
such studies, access to historic
Austro-Hungarian maps is crucial.
It is essential to improve
communication and collaboration
between scientists studying the
spatial patterns and rates of LUCC
and those searching for its
underlying drivers. Therefore, the
most urgent challenges in LUCC
research in the Carpathian
Mountains are (1) the integration of
disciplines, themes, and scientific
communities and (2) an increase in
the reliability of LUCC models and
their value for stakeholders,
especially at the pan-Carpathian
scale.
Biodiversity and conservation
The Carpathians’ exceptional
biodiversity results from high
geodiversity, marked environmental
gradients, and historical climate
variations. While Carpathian
ecosystem diversity is relatively well
understood (Perzanowski and Jerzy
2001), species inventories are
incomplete. Still, new species—
mainly invertebrates and microorganisms—are being added to the
endemic taxa list (Figure 3).
Biodiversity research refers mainly to
faunistics, floristics, or
phytosociology (eg Liana 2007; Minář
et al 2007). Applied biodiversity
conservation research has so far
mostly been promoted by
nongovernmental organizations.
Most importantly, the WWF Danube
Carpathian Programme helped
establish the Natura 2000 protected
area network, and the Carpathian
EcoRegion Initiative compiled the
first comprehensive assessment of
the region’s biodiversity, endangered
species, and their conservation (CERI
2001; Witkowski et al 2003).
So far research has paid little
attention to global change processes,
including climate change. This is
unfortunate because the latter is
285
particularly threatening for montane
habitats and their biodiversity
(Csagoly 2007). For example, alpine
species, often occurring in small,
isolated populations, are highly
vulnerable to climate change (eg
Thuiller et al 2005), while invasives
often benefit from changing
conditions. Concerning plant
diversity, some efforts to assess
climate threat, such as the
EUROMONT initiative and the
Global Observation Research
Initiative in Alpine Environments
(GLORIA), are underway. A future
activity could also be the extension of
the Global Mountain Biodiversity
Assessment network (GMBA) to the
Carpathians. Last, future research
activities should address the
adaptation of conservation strategies
to anticipated global and regional
changes related to biodiversity threats
in the Carpathians, specifically
including emerging topics such as
increasing biofuel demand.
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FIGURE 4 The village of Volosyanka in Ukraine, 2007: ecosystem services in the Carpathians are
a basis for traditional cultural landscapes. (Photo by M. Elbakidze)
Tourism
During Socialist times, tourism was
politically promoted throughout the
region, particularly focusing on
health, social, and mass tourism. Yet
tourism was poorly diversified, and
related research was conducted at the
national level. After 1990,
ecotourism, winter sports, and rural
tourism emerged in the Carpathians
(Kurek 1996). Mountain communities
often considered tourism as the first
option for development, provided
that environmental impacts are
minimized and tourism enterprises
are accessible to local investors and
communities. Today, numerous
businesses are registered in mountain
resorts, and tourism’s contribution to
EU gross domestic product is
expected to rise to 10.2% in 2008
(compared to 9.9% globally, 12.6% in
Slovakia, or 5.8% in Romania; WTTC
2008).
Tourism research should
contribute to the development of
national and international tourism
strategies (Mika and Pawlusiański
2003). After 1989, most Carpathian
countries had common research
interests in the field of ecotourism,
tourism potentials, and the
relationship between tourism and the
environment, and important crossborder research projects have
emerged (Ptaszycka-Jackowska and
Baranowska 2003). Central research
issues related to tourism in the
Carpathians include defining how
sustainable tourism can be achieved
and how negative environmental and
sociocultural impacts of tourist
infrastructure can be avoided. As a
precondition, social processes in
transboundary areas have to be
analyzed and adequate steering
measures identified. Future research
also needs to focus on the protection
of natural and cultural values, the
integration of tourism in mountain
economies, and joint research
protocols.
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem services are the benefits
humans receive, directly or
286
indirectly, from ecosystems
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2005). The post-Socialist Carpathian
countries need to adapt their
‘‘societal system of values’’ to new
political and socioeconomic
conditions. This societal system
includes the value attributed to
ecosystem services as defined for
each nation. Assessments of
ecosystem services require estimates
of changes in ecosystem processes
and structures and in the resulting
flows of services. Studying the
relationship between ecosystem
services and human wellbeing has
recently received increased attention
in the Carpathians; however, until
now there have been no examples of
ecosystem service research in the
region.
Concerning ecosystem services,
research needs include (1)
disciplinary research on water
quantity and quality, hazard and
erosion regulations, biodiversity
conservation and creation of
functional networks of protected
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areas, and local inventories of natural
resources and (2) interdisciplinary
research on the role of traditional
village systems in sustainable forest
landscapes (Figure 4), resilience of
natural ecosystems to natural
hazards, gaps in sustainable forest
management implementation, and
trends and drivers of land use
changes. An ecosystem assessment
specifically targeted at the
Carpathian ecoregion has not been
carried out. The Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment (2005), the
largest study ever conducted on the
linkages between ecosystems and
human wellbeing, highlights the
importance of incorporating an
understanding of ecosystem
dynamics into governance systems
when managing ecosystem services.
Research on governance of natural
resources is thus an important basis
on which to evaluate ecosystem
services, but only a few projects
focusing on local stakeholder
involvement in natural resources
management and forest governance
have been conducted. Due to the
ongoing radical changes in the
political, social, and ecological
environments in all Carpathian
countries, there is an urgent need to
develop an ecosystem services
approach for the entire ecoregion, by
both scientific communities and
governmental organizations.
Outlook
The Carpathian region today faces
manifold challenges arising from
socioeconomic transformation;
institutional change; shifting policy
frameworks; demographic change;
dynamics in land use systems; and,
increasingly, climate change and
globalization. Meeting these
challenges and identifying possible
future pathways to sustainability
require better knowledge about how
socioecological systems react to these
transformations, how they affect
ecosystems services and biodiversity,
and how they link to human
wellbeing. Carpathian research has so
far been mostly disciplinary and has
studied socioecological systems at a
single scale. What is urgently needed
is interdisciplinary and
transdisciplinary research that:
1. Studies complex and nested human–environment systems as
such, not merely their constituents;
2. Assesses the entire Carpathian
ecoregion by synthesizing from a
multitude of local case studies;
3. Links knowledge about ecological
and economic systems across
multiple scales;
4. Addresses multiple ecosystem
services, human wellbeing, and
biodiversity conservation simultaneously;
5. Produces scenarios for different
future climate, land use, and
socioeconomic trajectories; and
6. Bridges the gap between researchers, policy-makers, and
stakeholders.
Only if global change research in
the Carpathians starts addressing
these issues will policy-makers and
stakeholders be able to evaluate the
trade-offs and synergies connected to
future pathways. Much is at stake,
because the Carpathians harbor
exceptional natural and social
treasures. The formation of the
network initiatives such as S4C is a
first step in the direction outlined by
this agenda, and we hope it will grow
further and facilitate productive
cooperation.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This paper is the product of the first S4C workshop,
financially supported by the Interim Secretariat of
the Carpathian Convention; the Mountain Research
Initiative; EURAC; and the IG&SM, Jagiellonian
University.
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