The Pan-Eurasian Experiment

The Pan-Eurasian Experiment – an Arctic
and boreal regional node for Future
Earth?
Tanja Suni
Executive Officer
Integrated Land Ecosystem – Atmosphere Processes Study (iLEAPS)
On behalf of
Finnish National Committee for Global Change Research
Council of Finnish Academies (ICSU National Member; secretariat for
the Group of the European members of ICSU 2011-2014)
The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)
Outline
• The Finnish National Committee for Global Change
Research: why an Arctic and boreal regional node?
• Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) – a new multidecadal
programme for the Arctic and boreal zone
• How PEEX could support an Arctic and boreal regional
node for Future Earth
Finnish National Committee for Global Change Research
Core group
Chair: Prof Markku Kulmala (atmosph.
sciences)
Prof Jari Niemelä (biodiversity, ecology)
Prof Eeva Furman (Director, Finnish Env.
Institute)
Dr Sirkku Juhola (social sciences, urban issues)
Prof Olli Varis (urban and water technology)
Expert member: Dr Tanja Suni (iLEAPS)
Structure: to be decided after consulting with current nat. committee chairs (incl. WCRP)
Aim: to have an active role in national science and co-design with funders & policy-makers
Why a regional node for the
Eurasian Arctic and boreal zone?
Views by the Finnish National Committee, the Council of Finnish
Academies (ICSU national member), iLEAPS, and PEEX:
• Europe too varied climatically, ecologically, and
socioeconomically to be represented by just one node in FE
• Northern Eurasia a rather uniform region with arctic, boreal, and
sub-boreal climate zones and with a limited number of countries
with long histories of co-operation
• Climate change influence strongest at high latitudes – need for
coordinated research efforts
• A regional secretariat is not enough: a regional scientific body is
important as well!
A champion organisation to ‘host’ regional efforts necessary
– John Ingram, GECAFS, this morning
A candidate for an Arctic and boreal
regional node: PEEX
• The Nordic countries, Russia, China, and the Baltic encompass the
target regions (arctic, boreal, sub-boreal) and the main source
regions
• The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) has been in preparation for
more than a year; clear links with Future Earth aims: co-design,
sustainability
• Aim: to integrate bottom-up initiatives into a coherent and
strong programme targeting global change in the region with input
from scientists, stakeholders, funders, and policy-makers
• Science plan led by the preparatory committee but developing
as a bottom-up initiative of the partners
• iLEAPS one of the main collaborators of PEEX; also SOLAS and
IGAC interested in participating
Outline
• The Finnish National Committee for Global Change
Research: why an Arctic and boreal regional node?
• Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) – a new multidecadal
programme for the Arctic and boreal zone
• How PEEX could support an Arctic and boreal regional
node for Future Earth
PEEX
Pan Eurasian Experiment
 A bottom up initiative by several European, Russian and Chinese research
organizations and institutes
 Aim: resolving the major uncertainties in the Earth system science and global
sustainability questions in the Arctic and boreal Pan-Eurasian region
1st PEEX Workshop
in Helsinki 2-4.Oct 2012
• Kick off for PEEX Science Plan
• Over 80 participants
• 42 research institutes
from Russia, China and 11
European countries
•
2nd PEEX Workshop
in Moscow 12-14.Feb 2013
•
3rd PEEX Workshop in
Helsinki 24-26 Aug 2013
•
PEEX
Pan Eurasian Experiment
Novgorod
Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS,
Alfred Wegener Institute, ECRA
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC)
A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
Institute of Geography, RAS
AARI
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological
AEROCOSMOS
Systems, Siberian Branch
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
Institute of Oceanology, RAS
Borok Geophysical Observatory, O.Yu. Schmidt Institute of
International Institute of Forests, Siberia
Physics of the Earth, RAS
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research
CEA
Lomonosov Moscow State University
China Science Centre of IEAS, Institute of Geography, CAS
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
CICERO
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
CNRS
NILU
Danish Meteorological Institute
Russian Academy of Sciences
Director of Siberian Center for Environmental Research &
Russian State Hydrometeorological University
Training
Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of
Directorate of the earth, Social and Economic Sciences
Sciences, SSC RAS, MMBI ICSC RAS
Division of Earth Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
Stockholm University
ECRA
Univeristy of Helsinki
Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University
University of Leeds
Finnish Meteorological Institute
University of Reading / NERC
Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences,
University of Tyumen
Estonian University of Life Sciences
V.E.Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB,
Institute of Applied Physics RAS / University of Nizhny
CONTRIBUTING INSTITUTES
PEEX Geographical region
http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew121130/ew121130b.html
Why PEEX ?
 Very important area: Arctic, boreal
 4 forces shaping civilization’s Northern future (ref. Smith 2010)
1.DEMOGRAPHY
Technology
Human industrial activity
changing the chemical
compositions of the atmosphere
•
Greenhouse gases
•
Short-lived climate forcers
•
Aerosol particles
•
Oxidation capacity
Variation & movements of
populations
• birth rate
• Income
• age structure
• migration flows
3.GLOBALIZATION
International trade &
Capital flow
• Economic process
• Social process
• Technological process
which make world
inter-connected
2.CLIMATE CHANGE
4. NATURAL
RESOURCES
Geoengineering – biotech – nanotech
– energy production - – material
sciences
Finite & renewable assets
• Fossil fuels, mineral
resources, ground water
• Photosynthesis – carbon
fixation
• Gene pools
• Renewable energy sources
PEEX Science Plan
 4 Focus areas




Focus - 1 PEEX research agenda
Focus – 2 PEEX Infrastructures
Focus – 3 Society dimension
Focus – 4 Knowledge Transfer
F – 1 PEEX
Research Agenda
F – 4 PEEX
Knowledge
Transfer
F – 3 PEEX Society
Dimension
F – 2 PEEX
Research
Infrastructures
PEEX Science Plan – Focus 1
Research Agenda
PEEX RESEARCH QUESTIONS
1.
How are the main climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, snow cover, cloudiness) changing in the Pan-Eurasian region over
the next decades?
2. What are the important feedbacks in the Pan-Eurasian climate system and how they are related
human activities and ecosystem behaviour in short (decades) and long (millennia) time scales?
3.
4.
5.
6.
How will the cryosphere, including the Arctic sea ice extent, snow cover and permafrost, change with changing climate?
How fast will the permafrost thaw proceed and how will it affect ecosystem processes and ecosystem-atmosphere feedbacks,
including the hydrology and greenhouse gas fluxes?
How could the regions and processes especially sensitive to climate change be identified, and what are the best methods to analyse
their responses?
Will there be tipping points in the future evolution of the Pan-Eurasian ecosystems and demographic development?
7. What are the present stage and expected changes of environmental pollution (air, water, soil) and
related stresses on population and ecosystems in Eurasia, and how will these changes affect societies
(livelihoods, agriculture, forestry, industry)
8.
9.
How will human actions influence further environmental change in the region?
How do the fast climatic changes affect the physical, chemical and biological state of the different ecosystems, inland water, coastal
areas, and the economies and societies in the region?
10. How could one identify the environmental and socioeconomic areas most vulnerable to climate
change, and how could their adaptive capacities be improved?
PEEX Science Plan – Focus – 2
Research Infrastructure
 Continuous comprehensive measurements : Powerful tool
 Based on existing environmental research infrastructure
 Vision of PEEX stations networks – supersites every 2000 km
Tiksi station
on the coast of the
Arctic Ocean
PEEX Science Plan – Focus 3
Environment-Society Interactions
Problems of atmosphere
and river pollution and
transboundary transport of
atmospheric pollutants
Impacts of natural and
human-induced
disturbances
Problems of
Transboundary
River transport of
pollutants
Snow impact on
river runoff
Engineering problems
initiated by the permafrost
changes due to global
warming
Harmful
algae
blooms,
Problem of
Deforestation of Region
Zones of
vegetation:
Positive
change of
wood net
production
at 20462065 years.
(?)
Depletion of Fish
Resources
PEEX Science Plan – Focus – 4
Knowledge Transfer
 Establishing a PEEX Education Programme
MSc level


PhD level
Postdoc level
Professor level
• Specializing in one
topic
• Learning general
scientific practices
• Further
specialization,
learning
independent
research
• Getting the big
picture
• Establishing own
research
• Obtaining funding
• Building research
group
• Building and
maintaining
international
networks and
research consortia
• Top-level initiative
preparation
• Joint programmes
• Local programmes
• International
courses
• Joint programmes
• Local / national
programmes
• Workshops
• International
courses
• Science workshops
• Teacher workshops
• International
courses
• Science workshops
• Teacher workshops
• International
courses
Recognizing research career as a whole
In collaboration with Nordic CoEs (CRAICC)
Outline
• The Finnish National Committee for Global Change
Research: why an Arctic and boreal regional node?
• Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) – a new multidecadal
programme for the Arctic and boreal zone
• How PEEX could support an Arctic and boreal regional
node for Future Earth
PEEX will contribute to Future
Earth goals
PEEX will:
•
Develop and integrate research on the interactions among land, ocean,
atmosphere, people, and economies in the arctic, boreal, and subboreal regions in order to find sustainable solutions to the major
challenges influencing human and environmental well-being in the
region
•
Build on existing networks and create new ones by integrating
bottom-up initiatives into one coordinated and coherent
programme to answer the main sustainability challenges in the region
•
Build on existing observation and modelling infrastructures and
add to them to cover the region over the next 20 yrs
PEEX is more than a regional node, but its existing structures could be
naturally linked to regional node activities to bring benefits such as active
interaction with Russia and China.
Co-designing PEEX with funders
Co-designing with scientists and funders (Xavier Le Roux, this morning):
•
EU-Russia joint calls being prepared (matching funds principle)
•
Bilateral calls such as Finland-China and Finland-Russia being prepared
•
JPI Climate (EU member states activity) calls being prepared
•
Russian funders actively participating in PEEX planning (Russian Foundation
for Basic Research, Russian Academy of Sciences)
•
Large support from Russian partners in Nordforsk co-alignment activity
(Nordic countries & Russia); similar in planning with JPI Climate
Co-designing with policy-makers
•
Existing channels to Finnish policy-making:
– The Finnish National Committee
– Council of Finnish Academies
•
As part of Future Earth – regional node coordination & programme
Secretarial potential
Full financial support for PEEX office:
– Finnish Ministry of Culture and Education
– University of Helsinki
– Finnish Meteorological Institute
Fully funded PEEX office (3 staff -> 5 staff) interested in forming
part of Future Earth regional node for Eurasia
PEEX programme, infrastructure, and networks interested in being
part of Future Earth regional scientific agenda – Future Earth and
Belmont forum representatives invited to next PEEX meeting 2628 August in Finland
PEEX
Pan Eurasian Experiment
Preparatory Committee
Academy Prof. Markku Kulmala Univ.Helsinki , Finland
Prof. Sergej Zilitinkevich FMI, Finland
Director Yrjö Viisanen FMI, Finland
Prof. Vladimir Kotlyakov Inst. of Geography, Russia
Prof. Nikoly Kasimov Moscow State University, Russia
Prof. Valeriy Bondur AEROCOSMOS, Russia
Prof. Gennady Matvienko Inst. of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, Russia
EU contribution
China Contribution
PEEX Project Office
Heads Prof. M. Kulmala Univ. Helsinki ATM, Prof. S. Zilitinkevich FMI
Executive Officer, Research Coordinator Dr. Hanna Lappalainen, Univ. Helsinki ATM FMI
Science Officer, Head of Measurement Group, Dr. Tuukka Petäjä, Univ. Helsinki ATM
Project Officer, Dr. Joni Kujansuu, Helsinki ATM
www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex