Elisabeth Gauffin

Global Outlook‐
Future Competition for Land
Opportunities and challenges for farmers researchers and business in
farmers, researchers and business in the agricultural sector
Elisabeth Gauffin 2013‐01‐29
Challenges for all farmers… and the rest of the world...
• 3
3 billion more people 2050, will need billion more people 2050 will need
double the amount off food
• Produce more with less
d
hl
• Mitigate and adapt to climate change g
p
g
• Limit negative environmental impact from agriculture
• Energy transition‐ reduce fossil energy increase renewable
increase renewable
• To understand the world around and how it will influence agriculture in the future
Good or bad true or false
Good or bad, true or false…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
High food prices?
High
food prices?
Bioenergy‐versus food?
Land grabbing?
Climate change?
Climate change?
Lack of R & D?
CAP?
S ll h ld f
Small holder farmers suppressed by giants?
db i t ?
“Livestock’s long shadow”?
g
A Swedish farmer looking at her g
country….
• Food prices‐
d
f d
food security
• Urbanisation
Urbanisation‐ land
land use
use
• Animal production‐eating meat
WYSIWYG
or
YGWYPF
SVD 17 oktober 2012
Food prices
Food prices
Cheap food cost. It might not cost you and your f l h
family here and right now, more than what it says d h
h
h
on the price tag.
But it might have caused a high price for someone else, her or his family somewhere else in the world l h
hi f il
h
l i h
ld
being produced in a unsustainable way. For example waste of natural recourses low wages bad
waste of natural recourses, low wages, bad condition for workers, low profit in the agricultural sector negative environmental impact and lack of
sector, negative environmental impact and lack of good animal welfare.
Most likely, it will cost us all in the future.”
Free trade and market liberalization but
liberalization, but at what price and responsibility?
– Vi måste ta strid mot jordbrukssubventionerna, säger Birgitta Ohlsson, Sveriges nya EU‐minister, som inte är rädd att ta strid med fransmän och andra sydeuropéer om EU:s omfattande stöd till
fransmän och andra sydeuropéer om EU:s omfattande stöd till bönderna. Foto: Annica Jönsson
Ministern vill banta böndernas EU‐bidrag
Sveriges EU‐minister Birgitta Ohlsson (FP) vill stärka motståndet inom EU mot unionens omfattande jordbruksstöd. – Vi måste ta strid mot subventionerna genom att bygga kloka allianser Jordbruket måste klara
subventionerna genom att bygga kloka allianser. Jordbruket måste klara sig på egna ben, säger hon till Sydsvenskan.
Sydsvenskan 2013‐01‐27
Food security to whom and why?
Food security‐
to whom and why?
CAP
What is there to defend if there is no food f d
production and
production and energy supply?
Still confused, but on a higher level….
SVD Brännpunkt 2013‐01‐27
”I’m
I m a vegetarian. But
a vegetarian. But I eat
I eat approx. approx.
22 kg of meat every year”
Vaclav Smil, Professor at Univeristy of
Manitoba, Canada at Stockholm Water week
2007
Maybe it’s all about attitudes, understanding and lack of
understanding and lack of knowledge and a holistic view?
Maybe this is the Maybe
this is the
largest challenges and the biggest threats to a
the biggest threats to a sustainable future for the sector….
“In the long run, only those “In
the long run only those
who sell real goods and
who sell real goods and services to real customers and get paid in real money survives””
Peter Drucker 1909‐2005, g
American Management Consultant Thank you for listening