fairmodel

Reduction p
potential and costs based on
the IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR model
Michel den El
Elzen
en
Outline presentation
1. Methodology
2. Analysis
•
Low stabilisation scenarios
•
Carbon tax scenarios (OECD Environmental Outlook)
3. Conclusions
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1.Baseline
1
Baseline and
MACs
2. Global emission
pathway, regional
targets and costs
3. Energy and
land use changes
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Va
an Vuuren ett al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse ga
as concentra
ations, Clima
atic Change
Part of integrated IMAGE model to develop
climate mitigation scenarios
Regions
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ƒ Energy CO2 emissions from energy models TIMER and POLES
ƒ accounting
ti technological
t h l i l iimprovements,
t energy iinertia
ti and
d
learning effects
ƒ Manyy sectors and mitigation
g
options
p
((inc. CCS,, renewables))
ƒ Non-CO2 emissions based on extended EMF non-CO2 MAC
curves
ƒ accounting technological improvements and removal of
implementation barriers
ƒ Avoiding deforestation based on MAC curves of GCOMAP
model (LBNL), IIASA DIMA forest sector model
ƒ Reforestation MAC based on IMAGE runs
ƒ accounting difference in productivity between existing
vegetation and new forests (at grid-level).
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de
en Elzen et a
al., 2007, Multi-gas emiss
sion envelop
pes, Global E
Environmenttal Change
Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves
ƒ Costs vary depending on what happened in previous years
ƒ ITC – Induced Technological Change
ƒ Inertia in energy system – lifetimes times for power plants etc
ƒ Using static MACs does not capture this
ƒ But FAIR tries to take into account by interpolating between 3
“standard” MAC curves,, based on 3 “standard” historical price
p
paths
$/
MACCs construction in 2050
tCO2e
MAC 1: cubic
price path
MAC 3:
$ /tC
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
MAC 2: linear price path
de
en Elzen et a
al., 2007, Multi-gas emiss
sion envelop
pes, Global E
Environmenttal Change
Path Dependency of MAC curves
2010
2020
2030
Linear
cube
Cubic (3)
root
Cube root
price
2040
2050
path
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GtCO2e
ƒ Abatement costs include direct costs for climate policy, but do not
include: macro-economic effects, gains of ancillary benefits and
cost/gains of changes fuel trade
ƒ using Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves and calculating
demand & supply curves
ƒ Discount rate of 5%, but energy system also 10% (investments
made by private parties)
ƒ Include Transaction costs and CDM accessibility
ƒ Emission trading
ƒ full trading in case regions participate
ƒ limited trading for non-participants (CDM)
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Va
an Vuuren ett al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse ga
as concentra
ations, Clima
atic Change
Methodology Abatement costs model
Baseline – developments without Climate Policy
B2 Baseline and other baselines
Central case B2:
Population 2100: 9 billion
(
(UN
medium))
Emissions (GtC-eq
q)
30
IMAGE 2.3
2 3 B2
IMAGE 2.3 A1b
IMAGE 2.3 B1
20
GDP growth: 2% per year
10
Grey area indicates
EMF21 range
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Energy:
gy near IEA until 2030,,
conventional development
2100
after 2030
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Va
an Vuuren ett al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse ga
as concentra
ations, Clima
atic Change
40
index(1990=1)
Relative CO2-eq emisions(incl. LUCF CO2)
1.6
1.4
+35%
1.2
+20%
1
-5%
0.8
650
-35%
06
0.6
550
0.4
450
0.2
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
time(years)
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de
en Elzen et a
al., 2007, Multi-gas emiss
sion envelop
pes, Global E
Environmenttal Change
Pathways for stabilisation at 450,550 and 650 ppm CO2equivalent
700
600
Carbon tax
650 CO2-eq
CO2 eq
550 CO2-eq
450 CO2-eq
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Abatement costs (%GDP)
2.5
Mitiigaations costts (% GDP
P
Carbbon tax ($/tC-eq)
800
2.0
650 CO2-eq
CO2 eq
550 CO2-eq
450 CO2-eq
15
1.5
1.0
0.5
00
0.0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
ƒ Carbon taxes in the order of 200 (650) to 600-800 (450) $/tC
ƒ Abatement costs as % of GDP vary over time – and peak around
2030-2050
2030
2050
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Va
an Vuuren ett al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse ga
as concentra
ations, Clima
atic Change
Global abatement costs for meeting 450ppm
increase up to 2% of world GDP
1600
Baseline
1400
1200
1200
Renew
Bio
1000
Energy use (EJ)
450 ppm CO2-eq
1400
Nuclear
800
NGas
600
Nuclear
1000
Energy use (EJ)
E
1600
800
Bio
Renew
NGas+CCS
Coal+CCS
600
Oil
400
400
Coal
200
200
NGas
Bio
Oil
Coal
0
0
Nuclear
Biofuels + CCS
Oil+CCS
Biofuels
Oil
Renewables
Natural gas+CCS
Coal+CCS
Natural gas
Coal
ƒ Energy
E
use iin b
baseline
li vs. mitigation
i i i scenario
i
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Va
an Vuuren ett al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse ga
as concentra
ations, Clima
atic Change
Major changes in the global energy system are
required to meet 450ppm
25
E
Emissions
s (GtC-eq
q)
20
15
10
Contributions of reduction measures
Sinks/
avoided defor
defor.
Non-CO 2
Fuel switch
CCS
Bio energy
Bio-energy
Solar, wind, nuclear
Energy efficiency
baseline
450 ppm
stabilization
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ƒ Main options short term: non-CO2, fuel switch and efficiency
ƒ Main
M i options
i
llong term: CCS
CCS; Bi
Biofuels,
f l renewables
bl & nuclear
l
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va
an Vuuren et al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse gas concentrations, Clima
atic Change
Energy efficiency improvements, bio-energy and
CCS contribute the most in the reductions
450 ppm CO2-eq
Forests
Grass
D
Desert
t
Ice
Tundra
Agriculture
A
i lt
Ext. grassland
Bio-energy
Bi
C-plantation
ƒ Land
L d use pattern
tt
iin 450 ppm scenario
i iin 2100
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va
an Vuuren et al, 2007, Sta
abilising gre
eenhouse gas concentrations, Clima
atic Change
Meeting 450ppm also leads to major changes in
land use, i.e. bio
bio-energy
energy and C-plantations
C plantations
450 ppm
CC OECD
CC Global
CC global
(phased)
CC global
(delayed)
reduce emission in order to stay within 2oC
with a 50% probability
Increasing carbon tax in OECD only (2008)
Increasing carbon tax in al countries (2008)
Increasing carbon tax, all countries (but
phased): OECD 2008; BRIC 2020; Rest of
World 2030
Increasing tax, but all countries starting in
2020
ƒ Starting at 25 US$/tCO2, increasing with 2.4%/yr (Social
C t off Carbon
Cost
C b (SCC) iin IPCC’
IPCC’s 4th A
Assessmentt R
Report)
t)
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Bakkes e
et al, 2008, B
Background report to the
e OECD Environmental O
Outlook to 2030, MNP
Carbon tax scenarios (OECD Environmental
Outlook)
ƒ The difference in implementation in 2008 and 2020 corresponds
more or less to stabilization at 550 and 650 ppm CO2-eq.
ƒ No carbon tax scenario meets 2 degree
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Bakkes e
et al, 2008, Background report to the
e OECD Environmental O
Outlook to 2030, MNP
Carbon tax scenarios (OECD Environmental
Outlook)
Reduction compared to 1990 emissions in 2020 (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
50
-60
-70
Equal MAC (0US$)
Equal MAC (60US$)
Equal MAC (150US$)
Canada
USA
EU
Russian
Federation
Japan
Oceania
Ukraine
region
Annex I
ƒ Tax levels corresponds to baseline, and 20% and 30% Annex I
reduction scenario
ƒ No emissions trading
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De
en Elzen et a
al, 2008, Exploring comp
parable post--2012 efforts
s, MNP reporrt
Comparable effort analysis: Mitigation reduction
potential & Costs for 0, 60 and 150US$/tCO2
-reduction comp. 1990 level
ƒ reductions dependent on the assumed Marginal Abatement Costs
curves
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De
en Elzen et al, 2008, Exploring comp
parable post--2012 efforts
s, MNP reporrt
Comparable effort analysis: reductions for Annex I
countries
Conclusions
ƒ Stabilizing GHG concentration at low levels (about 450 ppm
CO2 ) iin order
CO2-eq)
d tto meett 2 degree
d
target
t
t technically
t h i ll feasible
f
ibl
possible with ‘known techniques’
ƒ P
Portfolio
tf li off options
ti
needed:
d d substantial
b t ti l contribution
t ib ti CCS and
d
efficiency. Multi-gas approach.
ƒ Abatement
Abatement-costs
costs for 450 ppm are in the order of a few percent
of world GDP, strongly depending on baseline developments
ƒ E
Early
l participation
ti i ti off llarge emitting
itti countries
t i iis needed
d d ffor
meeting the low stabilisation levels
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Thank y
you for y
your attention
Report (www.mnp.nl¥en):
ƒ den Elzen, M.G.J, Höhne, N., van Vliet, J. and Ellerman, C., 2008.
Exploring comparable post-2012 efforts for Annex I countries.
ƒ Bakkes et al, 2008, Background report to the OECD Environmental
Outlook to 2030.
Paper:
ƒ van Vuuren
Vuuren, D
D.P.,
P den Elzen
Elzen, M
M.G.J.,
G J Eickhout
Eickhout, B
B., Lucas
Lucas, P
P.L.,
L
Strengers, B.J., 2007. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations.
Assessment of different strategies and costs using an integrated
assessment framework
framework. Climatic Change
Change, 81: 119
119-159.
159
ƒ Contact: [email protected]
This research was p
performed with the support
pp of the Dutch Ministry
y of
Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM)
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Back-up
Back
up slides: for information
www.mnp.nl¥fair
Publications (www.mnp.nl¥fair):
ƒ
den Elzen, M.G.J. and Höhne, N.: 2008, 'Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in
Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting concentration stabilisation targets',
Cli ti Ch
Climatic
Change, iin press htt
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9484-z.
//d d i
/10 1007/ 10584 008 9484
ƒ den Elzen, M.G.J., Höhne, N. and Moltmann, S.: 2008a, 'The Triptych approach
revisited: a staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation', Energy Policy 36 (3):
1107 1124
1107-1124.
ƒ den Elzen, M.G.J. and Lucas, P., 2005. The FAIR model: a tool to analyse
environmental and costs implications of climate regimes. Environmental Modeling and
Assessment, 10(2): 115-134.
ƒ den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P. and van Vuuren, D.P.: 2008c, 'Regional abatement
action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low
CO2-equivalent concentrations', Climatic change 90 (3): 243–268
ƒ den Elzen, M.G.J., Meinshausen, M. and van Vuuren, D.P., 2007. Multi-gas emission
envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: costs versus certainty of
limiting temperature increase. Global Environmental Change, 17: 260–280.
ƒ Lucas, P., van Vuuren, D.P., Olivier, J.A. and den Elzen, M.G.J.: 2007, 'Long-term
reduction p
potential of non-CO2 g
greenhouse g
gases', Environmental Science & Policy
y
10 (2): 85-103.
ƒYOU
van CAN
Vuuren,
D.P., den Elzen,
M.G.J.,OR
Eickhout,
B., Lucas,
P.L., Strengers,
B.J., 2007.
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PAPERS
CONTACT:
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Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Assessment of different strategies and
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Historical
emissions
Climate assessment
model
Climate attribution
model
1. Global emission pathway
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Baseline
scenario
Multi-stage
approach
Emissions
pathways
Per capita
C
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
South-North
di l
dialogue
proposall
2. Regional emissions targets
Triptych
approach
h
before emissions trading
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
3. Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
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den Elzen, Lu
d
ucas, 2005, T
The FAIR 2 m
model, Enviro
onmental Mo
odelleing As
ssessment
FAIR 2.0 model: to assess regional emissions and
costs for post-2012 mitigation regimes
Objective Abatement costs model
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den Elzzen, Lucas and van Vuurren, 2005, Ab
batement cos
sts, Energy P
Policy
ƒ To calculate abatement costs and permit price (multi-gas)
ƒ To
T calculate
l l t th
the b
buyers and
d sellers
ll
and
d fifinancial
i l flflows on th
the
international permit market
ƒ To distribute the global reduction objective over the different
regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making
use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms
Choice of MAC curves matters: POLES gives
lower p
prices till 2035-2040,, and higher
g
later
Equilibrium Carbon Price [2005US$/tCO2]
250
200
450
POLES MAC CO2
TIMER MAC CO2
150
450
550
100
550
50
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Global costs are manageable for POLES and
TIMER MAC curves
Global costs as %-GDP [2005US$]
2.0
1.5
POLES MAC CO2
TIMER MAC CO2
450
450
1.0
550
550
0.5
0.0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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