proteus - Knowledge on Line

PROTEUS
NEW CONCEPTS FOR A NEW AGE
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteus
1
Proteus USA
The Future
“We're entering an age of acceleration. The models
Complexity
and Uncertainty
underlying
society
at every level, which are largelySurprise
based on
a linear model
of change, are going to have to be redefined.
Future Environment Characteristics
Because of•Actor’s
the explosive
power of exponential growth, the
Attributes
•Planes
Influence
21st century
will ofbe
equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at
•Complex
discreet
today's rate of progress;Relationships
organizations have to be able to
redefine themselves at a faster and faster pace.”
— Ray Kurzweil 2003
Complexity Challenge
“What we think of as design is based
on hidden patterns, once
Mitigating Impact, Shaping Environment
understood we will be able to achieve the desired effect.”
— Telecommunications
Systems Engineer
Futuring (Reducing Uncertainty).
Gaining Foresight to prevent
Strategic Surprise
Foresight
2050 beyond ?
“The goal of “futuring” is not to predict the future but to
Time and Event Horizon
improve it. We want to
anticipate possible or likely future
conditions so that we can prepare for them. We especially
want to know about opportunities and risks that we should
be ready for. ”
--Ed Cornish “Futuring: Exploration of the Future”
2
History of Proteus
1999-2002: National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) initiated a
study to examine the future geo-strategic landscape and its
characteristics out to 2020.
Experts in U.S. Government/DOD, Private Sector and Academia
teamed with TASC and developed:
9 Five futuristic world scenarios and gathered information and knowledge
on the future complex environment, actors and relationships out to 2020.
9 Observed the importance of how to think versus what to think in solving
future complex issues.
2003 – 2004: International Consortium (US & Canada) formed to
study and collaborate on the practical application of Proteus
insights:
9 In future strategic intelligence, decision making and technology efforts
9 To better understand and deal with future ambiguity and uncertainty
2005: Proteus Canada followed by Proteus USA (U.S.+ Canada)
Sponsored by the NIU, ODNI and CSL, USAWC
Board Membership: NIU, CSL, NSA, NPS, Cebrowski Institute,
Honorary Members: Chris Schroeder, TASC, Dr. Bill Nolte UMD
3
Proteus USA
Charter and Objectives
Proteus USA is an international consortium and “think tank” that
promotes further discourse, study, and research, focusing on the
refinement , development, and application of new and emerging
“futures” concepts, methods, processes, and scenarios that will:
¾ Assist strategic and high-operational level decision makers, planners,
and analysts in “outside the box” consideration and critical analysis of
National military and intelligence issues within the Joint, Interagency,
Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) environment by encouraging
them to:
9 Consider differing values and perceptions of future target audiences by
systematically looking “outside” of the values contained in Western Civilization
when considering the application of all elements of national power (Diplomatic,
Informational, Military, and Economic).
9 Frame complex issues holistically, to identify and consider the 2nd and 3rd order
effects and unintended consequences of policy and strategy decisions.
9 Scan the horizon and define the future environment and scenarios to
systematically identify discrete threats and capitalize on hidden
opportunities
4
“The Proteus Consortium”
“It’s the and
Network”
@ 570 Associates
Fellows from:
Collaborative
Affiliations
and Associations
Boeing Company
Franklin
and Marshall College
US Army War College (lead and PM)
Joint Special Ops University
National
Intel University
(IC Colleges)
CSL,
DNSS, DCLM, SSI Global Futures
Government:
Partnership,
IARPA,
CAE/ODNI,
NIO-Warning,
Northrop
Grumman
National
Defense
Intel
College
National Security Agency
Open
Source
Academy,
NCTC,
NDIC/DIA,
ADET/NSA,
SPP/DOS,
EESO/ICGlobal Futures Partnership
Applied Futures
LLC.
Office, Director National Intelligence
Joint Staff 5/7/8
DOE,
OSD/PP,
CETO/USMC,
ARCIC/USA, CNO
SSG/Navy,
Center,
International & Strategic
National
Research
CouncilUSJFCOM,
of Canada
Naval War
CollegeSSI/USAWC
Studies
(Proteus
& Foresight Canada)
MOVES/NPS,
CTC, NDU, JSOU,
NWC,
University of Maryland
Nat’l Counter-Terrorism Center
Royal Military College CA
Universities:
JHU/APL,
UMD,
JMU,
GMU,
GWU,
WVU,
Georgetown,
George
Mason
University
Open Source Academy
Royal Military College, UK
George
Washington
University
Center,
Emerging
Threats
CalState,
Mercyhurst,
Notre
Dame
College, Purdue,
New
Haven
Central
IntelligenceCalTech,
Agency
UT Dallas
/Opportunities,
USMC
National
Geospatial University
Intel Agency of Houston,
University,
Institute
For
the
Future/AACC,
Jebsen
University of West Virginia
Notre Dame College
Naval Postgraduate School
Center/Fletcher School, UT-Dallas,
SHSU/ISVG
Mitre
MORS
Cebrowski Institute
School,
Tufts
L3
Communications
International:
CA, NSA/CA, RMC/CA, ICT/Israel,Fletcher
MDC/Tel
Aviv
National
ReconnaissanceProteus
Office
INSCOM
White Wolf Security
TRADOC
Futures /DCSINT
& CACAcademy/UK,
University,
Defence
DSTO/LWCD/DOD/
Australia,
LockheedArma
Martin
Alidade Inc.
Army G2/G3/5/7
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Allied
Defense
Staffs
Carabinieri/Italy,
MOD/Italy,
MOD/France,
ISN/CSS--ETH
Zurich,
Centrum
Pearson Analytical Solutions
Joint Staff J5, JFCOM J9
IBM
New England
Complex
Sys. Institute
Catolica/Peru,
of Public
Administration,
Ukraine, UN, Intus
Dept.
of State SPP & S&TNational Academy
W & E Carolina Universities
Mercyhurst
College
Defense
Science Board
Inst. for the Study of Violent Grps
Legere.eu
USMA:
CTC,
Political
Science
Dept.
W. Michigan. University
Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Private
Sector:
Applied
Futures,
New
England
Complex
Systems
Institute,
Center
of
Army
Analysis
All US Combatant
Commands
MOD , France, Australia, UK, Spain
James
University
Institute
for Countering
Terrorism
(IS)
Police Futurist Int’l, World
Future
Society,
Association
of Madison
Professional
WestlAFIE,
Virgina University
NH
University
Countering Terrorism Center, USMA
Futurist,
Forecasting
Ltd, Public Policy Forecasting
Inc., Mountain
Pub Policy
ForecastingInternational
LLC.
U. of Houston
Global Futures Partnership
Mountain Quest
Canadian
Foresight
Quest,
Washington Center for
Complexity
Lockheed
Martin,
Notre
Dame College & Public Policy, Henley
Wash. Ctr, C&PP
Putnam Col
HopkinsWhite,
APL
Alidade
Inc.,
Serious
GamingJohns
Summit,
Wolf SecurityOthers…
Institute
of World
Politics
Forecasting International Ltd.
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The Future Environment
Original Proteus Insights
(“Proteus; Insights from 2020,” pages 15- 81)
Starlight: “Foresight and Uncertainty Management”
• Today’s technologies and methods to focus on seeing events yet to
occur versus strictly on events, which have already occurred .
Sanctuary: “They Can Run and They Can Hide”
• The ability to hide origins, discrete events, and broad trends despite
ever-increasing globalization and worldwide connectivity
Sweat the Small Stuff: “Cyber Beings, Biotech, Nanotech”
• The double-edged sword nature of cyber technology, biotechnology,
and nanotechnology; macro-effects will result in new threats and
opportunities
Veracity: “The Challenge of Truth and Knowledge”
• In a future of complex, interconnected global networks where the
speed, pace, and rate of change challenges the importance of “truth”
Power: “The Secret of Cortez’s Gold”
• If our focus is only on the instruments of power instead of the values
from which they spring, we risk strategic surprise
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The Future Environment
Original Proteus Insights
(“Proteus; Insights from 2020,” pages 15- 81)
Wealth: “Its Not Just Money”
• We need to understand the flows of non-traditional currencies (e.g.,
knowledge, safety, health, genes, personal networks, etc.)
Herds: “People and Ideas on the Move”
• The nature of people and groups (their ideas, beliefs, loyalties,
and affinities) is complex and dynamic
Parallel Universe: “From Networks to Cyber Life”
• Cyberspace becomes less a communications network and more a parallel
universe coexisting and influencing every aspect of the physical world
Bedfellows: “The Significance of Teaming”
• The need for organizational agility – new partners, new customers, new
relationships, and new appreciation for the speed, rate and pace of
change
Threat: “The Obverse of Opportunity”
• The Proteus Study groups had a propensity to find – or even create –
traditional threats. In doing this, they tended to either miss or
misconstrue the non-traditional threats – and the corresponding
opportunities – in all of the venues.
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The Future Environment
Original Planes of influences
(“Proteus; Insights from 2020,” page 19)
“Places” where friendly, hostile, or neutral actors seek to
influence others (similar to the Information Age Warfare Domains)
Terrestrial: The classic military and geo-political domains of
land, air, sea as well as the physical concentrations of
wealth (e.g., sea lanes, oil fields)
Space: The domain of satellites and future space platforms
Spectral: The electromagnetic spectrum where EW,
bandwidth, frequency management, and sensing occur
Virtual: The global world of networks and connectivity
Psychological: The media and info conduits used to
influence the hearts and minds of people
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Five Scenarios
Amazon Plague: A world wracked by highly contagious, deadly
viruses that flare up, die, then return in mutated form. Trade has
dried up and global economy is in a serious, long-term recession.
The Enemy Within: The US has quite dramatically unraveled.
Ethnic tensions and single-issue politics have torn the social fabric.
Racial and inter-generational strife, compounded by record
unemployment, tears apart society. USG in never ending crisis.
Militant Shangri-la: A world of unexpected events and difficult-to-trace villains. The
world is influenced by the “Alliance of the Southern Constellation,” nations considered
pariahs by the West. The Alliance’s strategy is to keep the world on the edge of chaos.
New Camelot: The world enjoys economic growth, international stability, technological
progress, and the fruits of an energy breakthrough that promises cheap fuel and a clean
environment. The US is no longer dominant militarily or economically, but no one cares.
Yankee Going Home: The US withdraws from the world after a series of foreign policy
blunders and a deep recession. The world is experiencing chaos. The world is now controlled
by both traditional and nontraditional actors who compete for position and control.
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Know Thyself; Know Thy Enemy
The Nature of Blindness in Intelligence
During the Proteus Study, the workgroup participants had a
propensity to find—or even create—traditional threats. In
doing this, they tended to miss or misconstrue the
nontraditional threats. Observations from the study :
9 When the problem—the background forces for change—is clear
and the threat is clear, the group is comfortable but moves only
slightly out of the box. (Amazon & New Camelot)
9 When the problem is clear and the threat is ambiguous, the
group is uncomfortable, but engages in innovative thinking.
(Militant Shangri-la & Yankee Going Home)
9 When the problem and the threat are ambiguous, there is a high level of
discomfort and a tendency to default to the box. (New Camelot + Yankee
Going Home)
9 When the problem is ambiguous and the threat is clear, debates about the mission
ensue. (The Enemy Within)
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Proteus USA
Exploring the Possibilities
9 Topical
Study Areas:
Educational
Exercises/Experiential Learning. Learning role playing,
games, and simulations that either require user/student input in the
•Innovation
in Strategic
Intelligence
Analysis
simulation,
course work,
hypothetical
case studies/scenarios that
•Complexity
& Complex
Adaptive
Systemsnational
Theory
Application
holistically
frame and
examine complex
and&global
and Security
issues
•CriticalIntelligence
and Creative
Thinking
Methods and Practices
•Advanced
Futures
and Foresight
Methods and
Processes
Analysis
and Decision
Support. Applicability
of advance
concepts
deal with
complexityinand
uncertainty inPolitics,
strategic and
and
•Future that
Trends
andfuture
Implications
Governance,
Conflictoperational analysis and decision-making; i.e. decision-making
agents, modelsin
and/or
simulation and
a future and
•Future toolkits,
Trendsexpert
and Implications
Demography,
Societies
“Proteus Gaming.”
Cultures
Proteus
related publications
in experiential
learning
•Future Publication.
Trends and
Implications
in Globalization
and Economics
decision
analytical support
tools usingAvailability,
new and emerging
•Future and
Trends
andand
Implications
in Resources
Energy
concepts
and
processes
and
technologies
and the Environment.
Research.
Study into new
and work
•Future Future
Trends
and Implications
in concepts
Scienceand
andprocesses
Technology
on future Proteus related applications in solving future complex
geo-strategic problems.
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Functional Focus
Strategic and High Operational Level
Analysts, Planners and Decision Makers
#1
“How to think about Future Complexity and Uncertainty “
#2
•
•
•
•
•
New Concept, Processes, Methods,
Strategic and Operational Intelligence
Interagency Planning and Decision-making Processes
Joint Forces planning and decision making (Adaptive and
Contingency Planning across the range of military
operations)
Strategic Communications and Public Diplomacy
Information Operations: Civil Military Affairs, Psychological
Operations
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The Future Challenge
•Mid to Senior
Level:
•Analysts
•Planners
•Decision makers
Who understand Future Complexity and Complex Adaptive
Systems, their relationships and interdependencies in order to:
2020
and Beyond
?
-- Develop
dynamic
integrated
intelligence estimates, policies and
plans that can actively adapt to the constant and emergent,
expediential change over time
Complexity
Uncertainty
2020 - 2030 – 2050 - ?
•Renaissance
•Multi disciplined
•Theorist
•Technician /Techniques
•Critical & Creative
•Thinker, intuition
•Futurist
“To operate in an uncertain
world, people need to be
able to reperceive—to
question their assumptions
about the way the world
works, so that they can see
the world more clearly.”
Peter Schwartz
Technology Convergence
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Proteus USA
Proteus USA Program Highlights
• Research and Publication: Proteus Monographs Series Fellows Program
(PMSFP), Proteus Writing Excellent Award (PWEA), Articles and Papers,
Series, Books: Workshop Proceedings, and Anthologies, “Proteus Revisited”
• Outreach : Workshops, Co-sponsorship of Protean related events
Intelligence Futures Curriculum Development: Senior Analyst oriented,
focused on Future Complexity and Uncertainty
• Proteus USA Website: Papers, Articles, Monographs, Studies, links,
announcements and events. Moving toward a “fully collaborative” site
• Complexity Gaming and Role Playing Simulations: Protean Media Critical
Thinking Game improvements and the “Complexity Gaming Enterprise”
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Proteus USA
Publication and Research
Funded Proteus
Monographs
Proteus Writing
Excellence Award
Proteus Workshop Reports
and Digests
Newsletters
Proteus Future
Trends Series
Articles
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Proteus USA
Annual Proteus Futures Academic Workshops
“A forum that provides scholars from various organizations
and institutions from across government, academia and the
private sector the opportunity to present papers on topics and
issues that explore complexity in the future global security
environment as well as to examine Proteus related new and
innovative concepts, strategies and processes to meet 21st
century United States national security challenges.”
3rd Annual Proteus Futures Academic Workshop
16-18 September 2008
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Proteus USA
2008 Proteus Futures Academic Workshop
“Analyzing Future 21st Century National Security Challenges:
Strategic Reconnaissance and Creative Thinking to Prevent
Strategic Surprise”
5 Topical Panel Discussions
1. Future Trends and Implications in Governance, Politics, and
Conflict
2. Future Trends and Implications in Demography, Societies and
Cultures
3. Future Trends and Implications in Economics, Resources,
Globalization and the Environment
4. Future Trends and Implications in Science and Technology
5. Advanced Futures and Foresight in Analytical Methods,
Processes and Approaches
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Proteus USA
Outreach
Proteus Event Co-sponsorship Program: Designed to assist
other organizations within government and academia in co-hosting and
co-sponsoring Proteus related events such as conferences, seminars,
colloquiums and symposiums offering.
• Secondary funding
• Administrative support for event planning and execution.
• Alternative venues and locations
FY 2008
9IAFIE 10th Colloquium on Intelligence, University of New Haven and IAFIE
• (T) Futures Global Complex Systems Analysis Workshop: Finland
Foresight and Washington Center for Complexity & Public Policy
• (T) Applications in Education Seminar on Serious Gamimg:Virtual Worlds,
Mega-verses and Multi-player Online Games: White Wolf Security
International Association For
Intelligence Education
University of New Haven
Washington Center for Complexity & Public Policy
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Proteus USA
Futures Intelligence Curriculum
• Classroom seminar + PM Game: 3, 6 & 15 Hour POI’s
•Classes within the curricula are built modularly
with the capability to be standalone or expanded or
condensed based on needs of the students and
faculty
•Classes focus on How to think vs. What to Think
•Class Titles/Subject Areas:
“Focused on Mid
to Senior Level
Analysts and
Decision makers”
•Proteus Overview
•Critical Thinking
•Innovative Analytical Techniques
•Forecasting/Foresight
•Global Futures
•Protean Media Game
Futures Research
Studies, Advanced
Analytical Techniques
Future Environment:
actors, domains/planes
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Intelligence Futures Curriculum
15 Hour Curriculum
6 Hour Curriculum
3 Hour Curriculum
Hrs
Hrs
Hr
Title
Title
2 Proteus Overview
1 Proteus Overview
2 Critical Thinking
1 Critical Thinking
2 Analytic Techniques
1 Analytic Techniques
2 Forecasting
1 Forecasting
2 Global Futures
1 Global Futures
5 Proteus Media
Game
1 Proteus Media
Game
Title
1 Proteus Overview
Proteus Media Game
1 Critical Thinking
Analytic Techniques
1 Forecasting
Global Futures
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Intelligence Futures Curriculum
Critical Thinking
Designed to strengthen critical-thinking skills for
analyzing and evaluating complex issues. Students will
apply methods learned in a variety of cases/scenarios.
• Parts and standards of thinking
• Inferences, Probability, and Biases
•Overcoming Mindsets, Fallacious Reasoning, Egocentric &
Ethnocentric Thinking
• Strategic Intuition and Judgment Calibration
• Complexity in Analysis and Decision-making
• Critical Thinking Exercise: Case Study/Scenario,
Protean Media
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Intelligence Futures Curriculum
Analytic Techniques
Introduces senior analysts to several analytic methods and
techniques for analyzing threats and opportunities, and
discusses methods to focus analysis without skewing
results towards a desired conclusion.
• Key Problems with Analysis: Qualitative vs. Quantitative?
• Profiling International Change Processes
• Effects Based Thinking, Scenario Fusion/CounterFactual Reasoning
• Data Mining
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Intelligence Futures Curriculum
Forecasting
Introduces several methods of forecasting future events
and situations, to better prepare analysts to deal with
ambiguity in the contemporary operating environment.
• Forecasting Principles
• Forecasting Methods
• Gaining Acceptance of Forecasts
• Maintaining Currency
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Intelligence Futures Curriculum
Global Futures
Introduces and summarizes the main concepts involved
and techniques associated with futures studies.
Focuses on how to think about the future during times
of increasingly rapid change.
• Technology Revolutions and Supertrends
• “55 Mega Trends, 22 Signatures of Change”
• Developing
and
Using
IBM
ShellThey are
Scenarios
are not used
to predict
the Scenarios:
future or even the
mostand
probable.
used
to hold “strategic
among decision makers and to stimulate
•Inventing
the conversations”
Future
organizational learning. They challenge “mental models” about the world and
•Futures Reports and Studies
blinders that often limit creativity.
Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View
•“Project Horizon, NIC 2020, A New World Coming,
•UN Millennium Project
UK DCDC Strategic Trends Programme” and others
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Proteus USA
Website Enhancements
“New Home Page”
•Events
•Announcements
•PMG Members’ Pubs
•Research Links
•Articles, Documents
Bibliographies, etc.
“Dynamic Workshop
Online Registration”
Moving to
“Full Collaboration”
•Online Blog
•CGE Forum
•Web-based Gaming
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteus
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Proteus USA
Blog: Discussion Groups
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Proteus USA
Complexity Gaming Enterprise
A Concept for a Community of Practice
• NDIC/JMITC, NSA, IARPA, DIA, DOS S&T, DMSO, NPS,
Cebrowski Institute, DARPA, CNA, US Army TRADOC,
USJFCOM J9, J8 SAGD, RMC Canada, UT Dallas, JHU APL,
Serious Games Summit, BAH, others…
“Complex Adaptive”
Systems
PMESII System Behavior Models
• An Online Forum for sharing and examining ideas and
initiatives on serious gaming to enhance modeling and
simulation efforts for experiential education decision making
Economic/
Infrastructure
Social/
Culture
Information
Irregular
Military,
Groups
Political/
Religious
• Focus is on developing interactive Role Playing Simulations
(RPS) or a family of RPS that portray a Regional Synthetic
Environment that displays with fidelity the physical and virtual
domains as background and emphasizes entity belief systems,
their resultant actions, interactions, and interrelationships
within complex adaptive systems
•CGE Forum Online: 31 MAY 08
•Seminar: TBA “Complexity Gaming: Educational Applications
for Analysts, planners and Decision-makers”
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Proteus USA
Complexity Gaming Enterprise Forum
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Proteus USA
“Protean Media Critical Thinking Game”
Game Design and Play
Wrapper: Iraq (8 Entities)
•Stability & Reconstruction
•Tactical -Strategic
Beliefs/Perceptions
Direct or Indirect Actions
“Political Military
Economic Social
Informational and
Infrastructure Effects”
PMESII System Behavior Models
Entity
Entity
Entity
Entity
Kurds
Coalition
Insurgents
Shia (2)
Economic/
Infrastructure
Social/
Culture
Information
Entity
Entity
Entity
Entity
NGOs
Iraq Gov
Sunni
Shia (1)
Interaction/Relationships
13 Entity Actions
•Hard to soft
•Persuasive/ Coercive
•Multiple action modifiers
Irregular
Military,
Groups
Political/
Religious
Reactions
“DIME Actions”
•Meetings
•Negotiations
Participants: Proteus & NPS/MOVES/White Wolf Security
Resources: Proteus & other customers
Timelines: PM Design Improvement Plan
Scripting and Programming - TBA
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Proteus USA
Scalable “Wrappers”
Provide capability to vary and scale “wrappers,” easily.
Tactical to Strategic; More Entities (25+)
Entity
City/Province
Country
Entity
Entity
Iran
Turkey
Jordan
Syria
Entity
Entity
Arab
League
Shia (2)
Entity
Kurds
Entity
Imir
Entity
Palestine
Entity
Iraq Gov
Suadi Arabia
Militia (1)
Entity
City
Entity
Region
Entity
Coalition
Entity
Entity
EntityQ
atar
Entity
Entity
Entity
Kuwait
Insurgents
Entity
Algeria
Entity
Local Gov’t
Crime
GCC
Entity
Sunni
Entity
Country
Egypt
Entity
Entity
Shia (1)
NGOs
Entity
Region
AU/ECOWAS
Entity
Environment and Entities:
•Planes of Influence Actions
•Relationships/Patterns
•Complex Characteristics
•Finite Threats/Opportunities
•2nd/3rd Order Effects
•Unintended Consequences
Entity
Bahrain
Entity
Israel
Somalia
Countries/ Regions : Africa, European/Eurasia, East Asia, South Asia, Near
East, Western Hemisphere and “Generic” (Freedonia)
•Complex Crisis Scenarios: HA, Disaster Relief, PKSO, Major War, etc
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Protean Media
Data Collection and Analysis
Provide an analytical function for player or assessor review
City/Province
Data Collection
Game Play
Country
Environment and Entities:
•Planes of Influence Actions
•Relationships/Patterns
•Complex Characteristics
•Finite Threats/Opportunities
•2nd/3rd Order Effects
•Unintended Consequences
Region
Identify, Sort and Quantify:
•Regional/Country stability
•Population Support
•Planes of Influence Actions
•Relationships, Patterns, Threads
•Finite Threats/Opportunities
•2nd/3rd Order Effects
•Unintended Consequences
Assessment/
AAR Information
•Actions/Effects:
•What
•When
•Where
•Why
Game Play
Data Collection
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Proteus USA
“It is change , continual change, inevitable change that
is dominant in society today. No sensible decision can
be made any longer without taking into account not only
what the world is but the world as it will be… This, In
turn, means that our statesman, our businessman, our
everyman must take on a science fiction way of
thinking.”
Isaac Asimov
Questions?
Call:
717-245-3366
carl_proteus.conus.army.mil
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