Evolución de las aportaciones en embalses de cabecera del

INCLUSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT BASIN
MANAGEMENT PLANS IN SPAIN. THE CASE OF THE OF GUADALQUIVIR
MÓNICA AGUILAR* and LEANDRO DEL MORAL**
* Department of Physical Geography
** Department of Human Geography
University of Sevilla
15th Seminar on “Geography of Water”
Munich/Upper Bavaria 2012
The timetable of Water Framework Directive implementation.
2000
•Directive entered into force
2003
Transposition in national legislation
•Identification of River Basin Districts and Authorities
2004
•Characterization of river basin: pressures,
impacts and economic analysis
2006
•Establishment of monitoring network
•Start public consultation (at the latest)
2008
•Significant Water Management Issues
River basin management plan draft
•Finalise river basin •management plan
including programme of measures
2009
2010
• Introduce pricing policies
2012
• Make operational programmes of measures
2015
• Meet environmental objectives
First management cycle ends
Revision
each 6 years
Background
•
Scientific , administrative and regulatory (normative) recognition of climate
change impacts on water resources: “All the evidence and climate projections
suggest that water resources will be severely affected by climate change”
(Ministry of Environment Rural and Marine , 2008).
•
Water Framework Directive (WFD) does not specifically encompass global and
climate change effects, however some actions are being implemented, at
European level as well as at Spanish one, to avoid this absence hinders WFD
objectives. For instance:
–
EC 2009: Common implementation strategy for the Water Framework
Directive (2000/60/ec). Guidance document no. 24 River basin management
in a changing climate.
– Agencia Catalana de l’Aigua , 2009: “Water and climate change. Diagnosis
of foreseen impacts in Catalonia” (3er Convenio con la Fundación Nueva
Cultura del Agua)
1.-
Climate change in river basin planning documents
1.1.-.National normative framework makes explicit references to the need to
assess climate change impacts on water resources.
- Water Planning Regulation (Royal Decree 907/2007).
- Water planning Instruction (Order ARM/2656/2008) that
Basin planning has to take into account the
runoff longer available records (from 1940/41 to the present)
but contrasting them with those for the
recent period (from 1980/81- to the present)
The latter has to be used to define
hydrological budgets and water resources allocation
1.- Climate
change in the Guadalquivir basin planning documents
1.2.- In the Guadalquivir basin. Throughout the process of implementing the WFD
prior to the submission of the Basin Plan draft (Decembre 2010) the need for
comparison between historical and recent runoff series was not accomplished.
– Guadalquivir River Basin General Study, as established by article 5 of the
WFD (March 2007)
– Guadalquivir River Basin. Significant Water Management Issues Draft as
established by article 14 b of the WFD (July, 2008).
In these phases of the planning process the Water Planning Instruction were
not addressed: No special treatment or consideration is given to the runoff
recent records
The timetable of Water Framework Directive implementation.
2000
•Directive entered into force
2003
Transposition in national legislation
•Identification of River Basin Districts and Authorities
2004
•Characterization of river basin: pressures,
impacts and economic analysis
2006
2008
2009
2010
•Establishment of monitoring network Start public
consultation (at the latest)
•Significant Water Management Issues
River basin management plan draft
•Finalise river basin •management plan
including progamme of measures
• Introduce pricing policies
2012
• Make operational programmes of measures
2015
• Meet environmental objectives
First management cycle ends
Revision
each 6 years
We added what was missing in the analysis and diagnosis phases:
the contrast between the long and recent records of precipitation and runoff
Comparing the long and short data records
Average precipitation (mm/year)
Average runoff (hm3/year)
Period
Total stations
Period
Total stations
Complete series
687,5
Complete series
1.093
1981/82-2005/06
614,0
1981/82-2005/06
908
Decrease (%)
Complete / Recent series
Decrease (%)
11,9 %
Complete / Recent series
20,4 %
Promedio de aportaciones a emblases
Average flows inputs in the basin head reaches reservoirs (hm3/year)
300.000
1961-80
1945-80
250.000
200.000
1945-80
x 1.000 m 3
1970-80
Complete
Serie
series
Completa
1948-80
150.000
Up to1980
1980
Hasta
series
1967-80
100.000
In white just
since 1980
1945-80
1970-80
1948-80
50.000
0
Standardized precipitation and runoff annual series of La Bolera
La Bolera
6,0
Z_Bolera_P
Z_Bolera_Ap
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
A ńo s
2.-Guadalquivir Water Plan Proposal. PROGRESS
The publication of the Guadalquivir Water Plan Project on 15 December 2010 meant a significant
change compared to the previous planning phases:
1. Compliance with the Hydrological Planning Instruction. Consideration of the risk of
overvaluing the available resources when contrasting the longest series of data with the
more recent 1980/81-2005/06 series (Report and Annex No. 2 Inventory of water resources)
Recursos
disponibles
enGuadalquivir
la DHG
Availablehídricos
water resources
in the
river basin
Serie de Aportaciones (Hm3/año)
1980/82-2005/2006
1940/41-2005/2006
Media
5.754
7.043
Mediana
3.851
5.078
Fuente: Basado en la Tabla 18. Memoria de P.H. del Guadalquivir (71).
Diferencia
1.289 (18,3 %)
1.227 (24,16%)
2. The text includes some considerations of climate change impacts. Project Report
includes a section devoted specifically to the "Impacts of Climate Change" which makes a
slight incursion into the assessment of effects on demand of the irrigation land.
2.- Guadalquivir Water Plan Proposal. PROGRESS
3. Inclusion of future decrease of water resources in the basin using an overall runoff reduction
of 8% , assuming the conclusions of the study by the Centre for Hydrographic Studies of
CEDEX on the evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resources.
Based on this reduction, the increase in the "gap“ (“brecha”) between demands and resources
in 2027 is quantified as follows:
Efectos
del change
cambio effects
climático
Climate
Cuenca
Brecha (hm3/año)
With
climate
change
Sin cambio
Con
cambio
climático
Without
climateclimático
change
Demandas Aguas Reguladas
287
330
Demandas Aguas No Reguladas
124
153
Fuente: Memoria P.H de la DHG. Tabla 87.
%
15
20
4. Setting of water demand supply limits, contrasting real demand trends with those resulting
from the application of water demand management policies(especially relevant in urban
supplies).
3.- Guadalquivir Water Plan proposal. DEFICIENCIES
. No consideration of climate change in the entire planning process (diagnosis, objectives, impacts
on the demands, on water quality, measures, economic assessment, etc..).
• Absence of references to climate change studies on scenarios and action plans at both state and
regional level. Striking fact as Andalusia has been pioneer in having a “Regional strategy on
climate change" and Regionalized Climate Change Scenarios for region.
•No in depth consideration of water demand increase. Although measures to decrease demand
are included it is neglected the consideration of the impact of climate change on the demand.
•Unclear information on the hypothesis of a global water resources reduction factor of 8%
•The lack of regionalizationi nto the basin . Recent climate studies show that there are significant
spatial differences in precipitation trends detected in the Guadalquivir basin. It may be necessary
to propose a regionalization of the overall coefficient of reduction applied.
• Infrastructure remains an important section of the battery of measures to correct the "gap"
without assessing the feasibility , efficiency and security of this alternative.
Final remarks
1.
Resistance to incorporate climate change scenarios in the estimation of
the variables values for water management and planning. “Ideological”
cultural constraints? Pressures of the serious current problems?
2.
Climate change could affect the definition of the types of water bodies and
the identification of reference conditions used to define the objectives of good
ecological status to be accomplished.
3.
Need for consideration of climate change on the program of monitoring
and control. It is necessary to establish the mechanisms for periodic review
of the effects of action on climate change.
4.
Great lack of knowledge and lots of work to be done still exist in this field