Suwannee County LMS Plan

Transcription

Suwannee County
Local Mitigation Strategy
Prepared by the
Suwannee County
Local Mitigation Strategy Committee
With Assistance from
The Management Experts, LLC
2514 Manassas Way
Tallahassee, Fl 32312
(850) 528-0785
October 2010
2
Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy 2010
Suwannee County
Local Mitigation Strategy
Executive Summary
Suwannee County is threatened by a number of different types of natural hazards. These hazards
endanger the health and safety of the population of the county, jeopardize its economic vitality, and imperil
the quality of its environment. Because of the importance of avoiding or minimizing the vulnerabilities to
these hazards, the public and private sector interests of Suwannee County have joined together to create a
Committee to undertake a comprehensive planning process that has culminated in the publication of this
document: “The Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS).”
This Committee has conducted detailed studies to identify the hazards threatening the jurisdictions
of Branford and unincorporated Suwannee County and to estimate the relative risks posed to the
community by those hazards. This information has been used by the Committee to assess the
vulnerabilities of the facilities and jurisdictions of Suwannee County to the impacts of future disasters
involving those hazards. With these identified, the Committee has worked to identify proposed projects and
programs that will avoid or minimize these vulnerabilities to make the communities of Suwannee County
much more resistant to the impacts of future disasters. These proposed projects and programs are aimed
at reducing the impacts of future disasters are termed “mitigation initiatives” in this document. Mitigation
initiatives have been developed and will continue to be proposed by the Committee for implementation
whenever the resources to do so become available. It is important to note that this mitigation list is not
finalized.
The list of mitigation initiatives will evolve
• as projects are undertaken and completed
• as future disasters affect the county and new needs are identified
• and as local priorities change.
As the mitigation initiatives identified in this plan are implemented, step-by-step, Suwannee
County will become a more “disaster resistant” community.
This document details the work of the Suwannee County LMS Committee over the past year to
develop the planning organization, to undertake the needed technical analyses, and to coordinate the
mitigation initiatives that have been proposed by the participating jurisdictions and organizations.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Florida DCA require that this document
be adopted by the governing bodies City of Live Oak, Town of Branford and Suwannee County. Adoption
of the Suwannee County LMS by the City and County Commissions will not have any legal effect on the
Comprehensive Plan or any other legally binding documents. However, adoption of the LMS will give the
county and its jurisdictions priority with respect to funding for disaster recovery and hazard mitigation from
state and federal sources. Through publication of this local mitigation plan, the Committee continues to
solicit the involvement of the entire community to make the people, neighborhoods, businesses, and
institutions of Suwannee County safer from the impacts of future disasters.
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Table of Contents
Section
Topic
Section One
Introduction and Purpose
2010 Plan Overview
Hazard Mitigation Overview
The Suwannee County Context
The Planning Process
The Committee Organizational Structure
Planning Process
Current Status of Participation in the Committee
Jurisdiction Profiles
Suwannee County (Unincorporated)
City of Live Oak
Town of Branford
Demographic Data
Current Land Use
Future Land Use and Development Trends
Section Two
Section Three
Section Four
Section Five
Section Six
Hazards and Vulnerabilities
Introduction
MEMPHIS Hazard Model Analysis
Recent Disaster History
Natural Hazards
Critical Facilities
Mitigation Goals and Policies
Community Guiding Principals
Goal and Policy Objectives
National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
Repetitive Loss Properties
Compilation of Mitigation Initiatives
Prioritization of Initiatives
Prioritization Criteria
Proposed Projects and/or Initiatives
Mitigation Initiatives by Priority Score
Mitigation for Future Buildings and Infrastructure
Completed Mitigation Initiatives
Page
11
17
25
31
143
154
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Section Seven
Plan Implementation, Maintenance, and Updating
Plan Evaluation Process
Guiding Principles
Plan Updating, Review and Approval
Continued Public Involvement
Plan Approval and Adoption
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Appendices
Appendices A, B
and C
Appendix D
LMS meeting minutes, meeting agendas, attendee lists, sign – in sheets, public
notice and meeting announcements, and 9G-22 reports
Funding Sources by Category
Attachments
Section Three
Section Four
Section Five
Section Six
Current Land Use Maps
Future Land Use Maps (FLUM)
Critical Facilities for Suwannee County
Suwannee County Flood Insurance Study
Suwannee County - FIRM
2010 Suwannee County Mitigation Project List
LMS Guiding Principles
Capital Improvement Projects
Table 6.2 Mitigation Projects by Priority Score
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List of Tables
Table
Description
Page
Table 2.1
Table 3.1
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 3.4
Table 3.5
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 4.3
Table 4.4
Table 4.Flood
Table 4.FLD
Participating Organizations
Suwannee County Population
Average Annual Employment, % by Category, 2008
Average Annual Wage, 2008
USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Agricultural Statistics for Suwannee County
Recent Major Disasters in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Historical Floods on the Suwannee River
Declared Disasters (flood) – Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Historical Crest Elevations (in feet)
Flood Vulnerability Assessment
Potential Losses from Floods
19
26
27
28
29
29
35
41
42
43
45
46-52
Table 4.FLD.1 – Countywide Population at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.2– Countywide Structures at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.3 – Countywide Value of Struct. FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.4 – Unincorp. County Population /FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.5– Unincorp. County Structures / FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.6 – Unincorp. Cty Value of Struct. FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.7 – Live Oak Population at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.8 – Live Oak Structures at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.9 – Live Oak Value of Struct. FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.10 – Branford Population /FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.11 – Branford Structures / FEMA FIRM Zones
Table 4.FLD.12 – Branford Value of Struct. FIRM Zones
Table 4.Sink
Table 4.5
Sinkhole Vulnerability Assessment
Potential Losses from Sinkholes
Table 4.5.1 - Countywide Population at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.2 - Countywide Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.3 - Countywide Value of Structures/Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.4 - Unincorp. County Population/Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.5 - Unincorp. County Structures/Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.6 - Unincorp. County Value Structures/Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.7 – Live Oak Population at risk/Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.8 – Live Oak Struct. at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.9 – Live Oak Value of Struct. Use for Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.10 –Branford Population at risk/Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.11 – Branford Struct. at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Table 4.5.12 – Branford Value of Struct. Use for Sinkhole Risk
56
57-60
6
Table 4.6
Table 4.7
Table 4.Hurr1
Table 4.Hurr2
Table 4.Hurr3
Table 4.Hurr4
Table 4.Hurr5
Table 4.8
Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Occurrences in Suwannee County
(1950 – 2010)
Hurricane Category 1 Vulnerability Assessment
Potential Losses Category 1 Hurricanes
Table 4.9
Table 4.8.1 - Countywide Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.2 - Countywide Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.3 - Countywide Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.4 – Unincorp. County Population at risk for Category 1
Table 4.8.5 – Unincorp. County Structures at risk for Category 1
Table 4.8.6 – Unincorp. County Loss Use for Category 1
Table 4.8.7 – Live Oak Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.8- Live Oak Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.9 – Live Oak Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.10 - Branford Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.11- Branford Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Table 4.8.12 - Branford Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
77-81
Table 4.10
Table 4.9.4 – Unincorp. County Population at risk for Category 2
Table 4.9.5 – Unincorp. County Structures at risk for Category 2
81- 85
Table 4.10.4 – Unincorp. County Population/ risk for Category 3
Table 4.10.5 – Unincorp.County Structures/ risk for Category 3
62
63
68
69
70
71
72
73-77
7
Table 4.11
85–89
Table 4.12
Table 4.11.5 – Unincorp. County Structures/ risk for Category 4
89–93
Table 4.13
Table 4.14
Table 4.Torn
Table 4.12.5 – Unincorp. County Structures/ risk for Category 5
Fujita Tornado Damage Scale
Tornado Occurrences in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Tornado Vulnerability Assessment
95
96
98
8
Table 4.15
Potential Losses from Tornadoes
Table 4.16
Table 4.17
Table 4.15.1 - Countywide Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.2 - Countywide Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.3 - Countywide Value of Structures at risk/Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.4 – Unincorp. County Population at risk/Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.5 – Unincorp. County Structures at risk/Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.6 – Unincorp. County Value Structures/Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.7 – Live Oak Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.8 – Live Oak Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.9 – Live Oak Value of Structures at risk / Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.10 - Branford Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.11 - Branford Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Table 4.15.12 - Branford Value of Structures at risk / Tornado Risk
Lightning Occurrences in Suwannee County (1950 – 2010)
Thunderstorm Occurrences in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Table 4.Thunder
Table 4.18
Thunderstorm Vulnerability Assessment
Potential Losses for Thunderstorm and Hail Risk
99–102
103
104 106
109
110 –
113
Table 4.18.1 - Countywide Population/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.2 - Countywide Structures/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.3 - Ctywide Value of Struct/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.4 – Unincorp. Cty Population/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.5 – Unincorp. Cty Structures/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.6 – Unincorp. Cty Value of Structures/ Thunderstorm
Table 4.18.7 – Live Oak Pop. at risk/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.8 – Live Oak Struct at risk/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.9 – Live Oak Value of Struct/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.10 - Branford Pop. at risk/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.11 - Branford Struct at risk/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.18.12 - Branford Value of Struct/Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Table 4.19
Table 4.20
Table 4.21
Torro Hailstorms Intensity Scale
Hailsize and Diameter
Hailstorm Occurrences in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Table 4.22
Table 4.23
Table 4.24
Table 4.25
Table 4.Fire
Reported Wildfires in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Consequences of Wildfire
Suwannee County Fires (1989 – 2008)
Cost of Wildfire Suppression
Wildfire Vulnerability Assessment
114
115
115 –
116
119
120
120
121
125
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Table 4.26
Potential Wildfire
Table 4.27
Table 4.26.1 - Countywide Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.2 - Countywide Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.3 - Countywide Value of Structures/ for FDOF Fire Risk
Table 4.26.4 – Unincorp. County Population at risk/FDOF Fire
Table 4.26.5 – Unincorp. County Structures at risk/FDOF Fire Risk
Table 4.26.6 – Unincorp. County Value of Structures/ FDOF Fire
Table 4.26.7 – Live Oak Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.8 – Live Oak Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.9 – Live Oak Value of Structures/ for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.10 - Branford Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.11 - Branford Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Table 4.26.12 - Branford Value of Structures/ for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Heat Wave (Extreme Temperature) in Suwannee County (1950 2010)
Index Values (Drought to Moist)
Climate Risk Tool
Average and Deviation
Number of Days below 32 degrees (2005 – 2009)
Guiding Principles for Suwannee County
Suwannee County Mitigation Goals
Mitigation Initiatives and or Projects to Reduce Long-term
Vulnerability
NFIP Policy Statistics
Prioritization Score Sheet
Table 4.28
Table 4.29
Table 4.30
Table 4.31
Table 5.1
Table 5.2
Table 5.3
Table 5.4
Table 6.1
126 –
130
131
132
137
139
140
144
145
146 –
150
151
155 –
156
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List of Figures
Figures
Description
Page
Figure 3.1
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Figure 4.3
Figure 4.4
Figure 4.5
Map of Suwannee County
Hydrography Map of Suwannee County
Flood Map for Suwannee County
Sinkholes in Suwannee County
Sinkhole Risk and Potential
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that passed within 65
miles of Suwannee County
Category 1 Wind Speeds
Tornado Map
Thunderstorms and Hail Risks
Hail Storm Map
Suwannee County FRAS – Level of Concern
Drought Map
Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
Minimum Temperature for Suwannee County, 2005
Minimum Temperature for Suwannee County, La Niña
Years
Minimum Temperature - Probability Distribution –
Suwannee County, La Niña
Years
Minimum Temperature - Probability of Exceedance –
Suwannee County, La Niña Years
25
36
37
53
54
64
Figure 4.6
Figure 4.7
Figure 4.8
Figure 4.9
Figure 4.10
Figure 4.11
Figure 4.12
Figure 4.13
Figure 4.14
Figure 4.15
Figure 4.16
Figure 4.17
Figure 4.18
Figure 4.19
Figure 4.20
Figure 4.21
Figure 4.22
Figure 4.23
Figure 4.24
65
65
65
66
66
94
107
113
121
133
134
137
137
138
138
138
139
139
140
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Section One
Introduction and Purpose
Important Information Regarding Suwannee County: On August 11, 2008, Suwannee County
Emergency Management (EM) office reported that they had a break in sometime over the weekend (8/8/08
– 8/10/08). Several items were stolen and there was damage to the property and items in the office. The
Emergency Manager’s Laptop and tower were stolen and never recovered.
All EM documentation was stored electronically (i.e. old historical data, all signed and filed resolutions,
cameo data, GIS maps, Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) and other important EM plans, any and all data
relating to emergencies within the County over the last 5 years).
Therefore, there is no LMS documentation (meeting minutes, sign-in sheets, agendas, meeting notices,
mitigation project data, photos, summary reports, etc.) for fiscal years 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.
Suwannee County’s LMS plan data will only be the information from 2009 going forward.
See the copy from the Live Oak Police Department, and the Safety Coordinator Incident Report in the
appendices folder.
2010 Plan Overview
The Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Committee reviewed and analyzed each
section of the plan and documented if the section required revisions or updated information. The details are
summarized:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Executive Summary – The Table of Contents was updated to reflect new sections that were
rewritten, and additional tables and figures.
Section One (Introduction and Purpose) – The 2010 Plan Overview was inserted to summarize the
changes made to the LMS plan update. The remaining topics in this section had minimal text
added to the planning process.
Section Two (The Planning Process) – Several areas in the section were updated to include what
jurisdictions participated in the plan; organizations that participated in the planning, Committee
meeting comments, dates of the meetings; Committee meeting notes, sign-in sheets, and agendas
are located in the appendices. There was updated information about neighboring communities and
public participation.
Section Three (Jurisdiction Profiles) – Demographic details were updated to reflect current
statistics for each jurisdiction.
Section Four (Hazards and Vulnerabilities) - This section had extensive updated information to
reflect recent disasters, tables, maps and figures, historical detail data, vulnerability and probability
statements, risk estimates for potential loss information for structures, and extent statements.
Information on selected hazards or event sections were rewritten (i.e. floods, sinkhole, hurricanes,
tornado, thunderstorms/lightning, hailstorms, wildfire, drought/heat wave, riverine erosion, and
winter storms/freezing temperatures). Minimal updated information was provided for dam/levee.
Section Five (Mitigation Goals and Policies) – The Committee reviewed the County guiding
principles, the LMS goals, and the mitigation initiatives to reduce the long-term vulnerability. Also,
•
•
•
•
•
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the National Flood Insurance Program area was added to summarize the flood Insurance data, and
repetitive loss property information.
Section Six (Compilation of Mitigation Initiatives) – This section was updated to include the
completed mitigation initiatives and the current proposed mitigation initiatives for each jurisdiction.
Table 6.2 was updated to include the proposed initiatives with a priority score system.
Section Seven (Plan Implementation, Maintenance, and Updating) - This section was reviewed
and analyzed to see if it meets the need for maintaining and updating the LMS plan. The continued
public involvement section was added to include the current County Emergency Management
website and brochures distributed to the county residents.
The Suwannee County Prioritized Mitigation Project list was updated to reflect information on the
completed mitigated projects, the current mitigated projects, the funding source, timeframe for
completion on the projects, estimated costs, details on the project and their status.
The Critical Facility list was updated and the vulnerability scores assigned.
Flood Study and FIRM – the study and maps for Suwannee County were completed on 9/28/2007
Hazard Mitigation Overview
Hazard mitigation is any action taken to permanently reduce or eliminate long-term risk to people
and their property from the effects of hazards.
Examples of hazard mitigation include land use planning techniques that limit infrastructure in high
hazard areas and programs for retrofitting existing structures to meet new building codes and standards.
Ideally, a community can minimize the effects of future hazards through a mix of code enforcement,
planning, and responsible development.
Every community is exposed to some level of risk from hazards. Floods, severe thunderstorms,
hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, sinkhole events, and lightning are some of the hazards experienced by
Florida communities. It is the goal of the local mitigation strategy to identify local hazards and establish a
local framework to reduce the risk of those hazards.
Local Actions can Reduce Risk
Hazards cannot be eliminated, but it is possible to determine what the hazards are, where the
hazards are most severe, and identify local actions that can be taken to reduce the severity of the hazard.
For example, we know hurricanes are frequent in Florida, that flooding and wind damage are most
severe along the coast, that low intensity storms occur more frequent than high intensity storms, and the
level of coastal flooding is fairly predictable for a given magnitude of storm. Given this knowledge, local as
well as state and federal laws exist to limit the type and amount of development along the coast in areas
that have been identified as high risk to coastal storms (Coastal High Hazard Areas and Velocity Zones are
examples). Furthermore, there are incentives to live in lower risk areas. Insurance rates and taxes are
usually higher in coastal and riverine areas.
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Disasters Cost the Community
Hazards have real costs to businesses and residents. Businesses in high hazard areas can suffer
when damaged or isolated by storms and residents who build in flood prone areas are subject to
evacuation, damage to their homes, lower home values, and higher insurance premiums.
Critical facilities such as hospitals, schools, airports, utilities and major government buildings
should not be placed in high hazard areas because the function these facilities provide are too valuable to
be placed in jeopardy, especially during times of disaster. And of course, community health and safety are
beyond price.
Disasters Cost Local Government
Community infrastructure such as roads, drainage structures, sewer lines, electric lines, telephone
lines that are built in high hazard areas are subject to frequent damage and extremely costly repair. Also, if
a local government belongs to the National Flood Insurance Program and allows development in the
floodplain without proper elevation and construction techniques, the federal government can withdraw the
community's access to federal flood insurance for both public and private structures.
Furthermore, a local government is responsible for as much as 12.5% of their local public cost of a
federally declared disaster and 100% of any damage from smaller events that are not declared disasters.
These costs can put a significant strain on the local government budget.
The Suwannee County Context
The Suwannee County LMS Committee was established to make the population, neighborhoods,
businesses, institutions and critical facilities of the community more resistant to the impacts of future
disasters.
The Committee has been undertaking a comprehensive, detailed evaluation of the vulnerabilities of
the community to all types of future natural, technological and societal hazards in order to identify ways to
make the county more resistant to their impacts. This document reports the results of that planning
process for the current planning period.
The Suwannee County LMS is intended by the Committee to serve many purposes.
These include the following:
Provide a Methodical, Substantive Approach to Mitigation Planning
The approach utilized by the Suwannee County Committee relies on a step-wise application of soundly
based planning concepts in a methodical process to identify vulnerabilities to future disasters and to
propose the mitigation initiatives necessary to avoid or minimize those vulnerabilities. Each step in the
planning and evaluation process builds upon the previous plan, so that there is a high level of assurance
that the mitigation initiatives proposed by the participants has a valid basis for both their justification and
priority for implementation. One key purpose of this plan is to document that process and to present its
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results to the community.
Engage Public Awareness and Understanding
It is essential for the safety of the community that the Committee finds ways to communicate
(possibly through email, informational messages on the County website, brochures on a specific hazard,
etc.) to the citizens as a whole more aware of the natural hazards that threaten the public health and safety,
the economic vitality of businesses, and the operational capability of important institutions.
The plan identifies the hazards that will threaten Suwannee County and provides an assessment of
the relative level of risk they pose. It also details the specific vulnerabilities of the neighborhoods of
Suwannee County and many of the facilities that are important to the community’s daily life.
The plan also includes projects or initiatives that will minimize those vulnerabilities. The completion
of these projects or initiatives is essential for the safety and welfare of the County citizens from the impacts
of future disasters.
The Committee organization also seeks to provide information and education to the public
regarding ways to protect themselves from the impacts of future disasters. The Committee has been active
in communicating with the public and engaging interested members of the community in the planning
process. This document, and the analyses contained herein, is the principal information resource for this
activity.
Create a Decision Tool for Management
The Suwannee County LMS provides information needed by the managers and leaders of local
government, business and industry, community associations, and other key institutions and organizations
to take actions to address vulnerabilities to future disasters. In addition, proposals for specific projects and
programs that are needed to eliminate or minimize those vulnerabilities.
These proposals, called “mitigation initiatives or projects” (as discussed in the previous section) in
the plan, have been justified on the basis of their economic benefits using a uniform technical analysis, as
well as prioritized for implementation using ten objective criteria.
This approach is intended to provide a decision tool for the management of participating
organizations and agencies regarding why the proposed mitigation initiatives should be implemented, which
should be implemented first, and the economic and public welfare benefits of doing so.
Promote Compliance with State and Federal Program Requirements
There are a number of state and federal grant programs, policies, and regulations that encourage
or even mandate local government to develop and maintain a comprehensive mitigation strategy. This plan
is specifically intended to assist the participating local governments to comply with these requirements, and
to enable them to more fully and quickly respond to state and federal funding opportunities for mitigationrelated projects.
The plan will define, analyze and prioritize the mitigation initiatives that have been identified
through a technically valid hazard analysis and vulnerability assessment process. The participating
15
organizations are then better prepared to move more quickly and easily in developing the necessary grant
application materials for seeking state and federal funding.
Enhance Local Policies for Hazard Mitigation Capability
A component of the hazard mitigation planning process conducted by the Suwannee County
Committee is the analysis of the existing policy, program and regulatory basis for control of growth and
development.
This process involves cataloging the current mitigation-related policies of local government so that
they can be compared with the hazards that threaten the jurisdiction and the relative risks they pose to the
community.
When the risks posed to the community by a specific hazard are not adequately addressed in the
community’s policy or regulatory framework, the impacts of future disasters can be even more severe. The
planning process utilized by the Committee supports detailed comparison of the community’s policy
controls to the level of risk posed by specific hazards.
This comparison supports and justifies efforts to propose enhancements in the policy basis for
could or should be promulgated by the involved local jurisdictions to create a more disaster-resistant future
for the community.
Evaluate Inter-Jurisdictional Coordination of Mitigation Projects
An important element of the planning process utilized by the LMS Committee is to ensure that
proposals for mitigation projects are carefully reviewed by the participating jurisdictions within the County.
There is a high level of confidence that mitigation initiatives proposed by one jurisdiction or participating
organization, when implemented, will be compatible with the interests of adjacent jurisdictions and unlikely
to duplicate or interfere with mitigation initiatives proposed by others.
Jurisdiction Specific Mitigation Strategies for Implementation
Each participating jurisdiction will have a specific plan of action that can be adopted and implemented
pursuant to its own authorities and responsibilities. The plan will address mitigation projects for each
separate participating jurisdiction. Initiatives can be adopted and implemented for the jurisdiction’s own
purposes and on its own schedule.
The format of the plan and the operational concept of the planning process will ensure that proposed
mitigation initiatives are coordinated and prioritized effectively among each jurisdiction.
Planning Process
The planning process used by the LMS Committee will meet the analysis and documentation needs of
the planning process. The planning program utilized provides for the creation of this document, as well as
the preparation of numerous other reports regarding the technical analyses undertaken. In this way, the
plan assists the Committee with utilizing a full range of information in the technical analysis and the
formulation of proposed mitigation initiatives for incorporation into this plan.
The following sections of the LMS provide the details needed to support these purposes. The
remainder of the plan describes the planning organization developed by the Committee, as well as its
16
approach to managing the planning process. It will summarize the results of the hazard identification, the
historical event data, the vulnerability assessment process, the impacts of the hazard, and the extent for
each hazard.
The plan concludes by addressing the goals and objectives of the Committee for the next planning
period, during which this plan will continue to be expanded and refined.
17
Section Two
The Planning Process
The Suwannee County Committee is made up of a number of local government agencies, business
interests, community organizations, and institutions. Suwannee County (unincorporated), the Town of
Bradford and the City of Live Oak are continuing jurisdictions and that no new jurisdictions have been
added since the last Local Mitigation Strategy plan. The same three jurisdictions from the 2004 plan
participated in the 2010 LMS update.
This section describes the organizational structure used to complete the public planning process.
The Committee Organizational Structure
The Suwannee County LMS Committee encourages participation by all interested local and
neighboring jurisdictions, agencies, organizations, and individuals. Broad community representation is
promoted in the Committee and at public meetings to provide ample opportunity for public commentary and
consideration of the local mitigation strategy.
The organization is intended to represent a partnership between the public and private sector of
the community, working together to create a disaster resistant community. The proposed mitigation
initiatives developed by the Committee and listed in this plan, when implemented, are intended to make the
entire community a safer from the impacts of future disasters, for the benefit of every individual,
neighborhood, business, and institution.
Suwannee County Emergency Management is primarily responsible for updating the Local
Mitigation Strategy.
The LMS Committee is responsible for:
•
•
•
•
•
making official decisions regarding the planning process
approving the proposed mitigation initiatives for each jurisdiction
determining the priorities for implementation of those initiatives
removing initiatives that are no longer applicable for implementation
and coordinating the technical analysis and planning activities
These activities include conducting the hazard identification and vulnerability assessment
processes, as well as receiving and coordinating the mitigation initiatives for incorporation into this plan.
The Suwannee County LMS Committee worked closely with The Management Experts, LLC in
updating the LMS plan. Extensive research and analysis were performed with the guidance and direction of
the Suwannee County Emergency Management office.
18
Members of each organization were sent invitation letters and/or e-mails explaining the importance
of participating on the Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy Committee. Each jurisdiction was
represented in the LMS Committee. The Suwannee County Mitigation Strategy Committee benefited from
the assistance and support of its many members, Table 2.1 contains a listing of the participating
organizations.
Participation in the Committee is not limited in any manner, and all members of the community,
whether representing the public or private sector, are welcome to participate. Participation from interested
parties, including local/adjacent government representatives and citizens, is solicited via public meeting
advertisements in the local County newspaper.
The general public is encouraged to become involved with the Suwannee County Local
Mitigation Strategy to gauge plan effectiveness and help identify local hazards to be placed on the county
project list. The County citizens can provide valuable information about the past, present, and future
conditions within the community. There were several opportunities to include the public in the LMS
planning.
•
An open invitation to the public for the LMS meetings was posted on was on the County
Emergency Management (EM) website (http://www.suwcounty.org/site/). EM department’s
webpage is one of the main sources of information for the citizens to research and keep informed
on the progress of the LMS planning process.
•
LMS Meeting notices were placed in the local newspaper Suwannee Democrat.
•
LMS Meeting notices were announced at the County Commissioners’ meeting.
•
A copy of the LMS plan will be maintained in the County Clerk’s office and at the local Public
Library.
•
The final LMS plan will be heard and presented for public comment in the 4th Quarter 2010 LMS
meeting.
The citizens have an opportunity are encouraged to provide their input on issues, problems,
and needs related to the hazards in the County. To date, there was no public participation from the
community and no recorded documentation of feedback or comments from the public.
Note for public involvement:
This is an important element for the safety and future in mitigating all types of hazards for the
Suwannee County citizens. Therefore, the Committee determined that they will research and study models
of what other county communities are doing to get their citizens involved. Documentation will follow in the
next LMS plan.
The only participants for the LMS meetings were those member organizations listed in Table 2.1
who provided a great deal of support and assistance. None of the other organizations chose to participate
or be included in the planning process.
19
Table 2.1- Participating Organizations by Jurisdiction
Participating Organizations by Jurisdiction
Suwannee County Board of County Commissioners
Suwannee County Emergency Management
Suwannee County Sheriff’s Office
Suwannee County Planning and Zoning Department
Suwannee County Extension Office
Suwannee County Fire Department
Suwannee County School Board
Suwannee County Parks and Recreation
Suwannee County 911
Suwannee County Public Works
City of Live Oak
Shands of Live Oak
Town of Branford
Florida Division of Emergency Management
Florida Division of Forestry (FDOF)
Columbia County Emergency Management *
Pilgrim’s Pride
* Neighboring jurisdiction
Note:
All meetings of any collegial public body of the executive branch of state government or of any collegial
public body of a county, municipality, school district, or special district, at which official acts are to be taken
or at which public business of such body is to be transacted or discussed, shall be open and noticed to the
public and meetings of the legislature shall be open and noticed as provided in Article III, Section 4(e),
except with respect to meetings exempted pursuant to this section or specifically closed by this Constitution.
Planning Process
Committee meetings
As stated in Section One … “ August 11, 2008, Suwannee County Emergency Management (EM)
office reported that they had a break in sometime over the weekend (8/8/08 – 8/10/08). Several items were
stolen and there was damage to the property and items in the office. The Emergency Manager’s Laptop
and tower were stolen and never recovered. All EM documentation was stored electronically (i.e. old
historical data, all signed and filed resolutions, cameo data, GIS maps, Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) and
other important EM plans, any and all data relating to emergencies within the County over the last 5 years).
Therefore, there is no LMS documentation (meeting minutes, sign-in sheets, agendas, meeting notices,
mitigation project data, photos, summary reports, etc.) for fiscal years 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. The
20
meeting information will be from 2009 going forward.
The LMS Meeting was held at the Emergency Operations Center in 2009. In 2010, the meeting was
discussed via email:
•
•
August 11, 2009
July 21, 2010 (via email)
See Appendices A and B for meeting minutes, agendas, and the attendee sign-in sheet.
It is important to emphasize that the procedure used by the Suwannee County Mitigation
Committee is based on the following important concepts:
•
•
•
•
•
A multi-organizational, multi-jurisdictional planning group establishes specific goals and
objectives to address the community’s vulnerabilities to all types of hazards.
It utilizes a logical, stepwise process of hazard identification, risk evaluation and vulnerability
assessment, as well as review of past disaster events, that is consistently applied by all
participants.
Mitigation initiatives are proposed for incorporation into the plan only by those jurisdictions or
organizations with the authorities and responsibilities for their implementation.
The process encourages participants to propose specific mitigation initiatives that are feasible
to implement and clearly directed at reducing specific vulnerabilities to future disasters.
Proposed mitigation initiatives are characterized in a substantive manner, suitable for this level
of planning, to assure their cost effectiveness and technical merit, as well as coordinated
among jurisdictions to assure that conflicts or duplications are avoided.
The planning process begins with the development of the Committee as an organization and
obtaining participation from the local government jurisdictions and key organizations and institutions. The
planning work conducted to develop this document relies heavily on the expertise and authorities of the
participating agencies and organizations, rather than on detailed scientific or engineering studies. The
Committee is confident that the best judgment of the participating individuals, because of their role in the
community, can achieve a level of detail in the analysis that is more than adequate for purposes of local
mitigation planning. As the planning process described herein continues, more detailed and costly scientific
studies of the mitigation needs of the community can be defined as initiatives for incorporation into the plan
and implemented as resources become available to do so.
Establishing the planning schedule
The Committee initially establishes a planning schedule for the upcoming planning period that
allows the participants to anticipate their involvement in the technical analyses and evaluations that they
will be asked to do. At the outset of the planning period, the Committee defines the goals that the planning
process is attempting to achieve, as well as the specific objectives within each goal that will help to focus
the planning efforts. The goals and objectives established by the Suwannee County Committee for this
planning period are described in Section Five: Mitigation Goals and Policies.
Analyzing the need for the community and then formulating proposed mitigation initiatives to avoid
21
or minimize vulnerability of the community to future disasters is an enormous effort, and an area that will be
reviewed and addressed every six months.
The goals and objectives set by the Committee are intended to help focus the effort of the
participants, for example, by directing attention to certain types of facilities or neighborhoods, or by
emphasizing implementation of selected types of proposed mitigation initiatives.
Hazard Identification and Risk Estimation
The Committee analyzes the natural hazards that threaten all or portions of the community. Where
possible, specific geographic areas subject to the impacts of the identified hazards are delineated. This
general information is used to estimate the relative risk of the various hazards as an additional method to
focus their analysis and planning efforts. They compare the likelihood or probability that a hazard will
impact an area, as well as the consequences of that impact to public health and safety, property, the
economy, and the environment. This comparison of the consequences of an event with its probability of
occurrence is a measure of the risk posed by that hazard to the community.
Depending on the participating jurisdiction, a variety of information is obtained regarding hazard
identification and risk estimation. The planners representing the jurisdiction attempt to incorporate
consideration of hazard specific maps, including flood plain delineation maps, whenever applicable, and
GIS-based analyses of hazard areas and the locations of critical facilities, infrastructure components and
other properties located within the defined hazard areas.
Estimating the relative risk of different hazards is followed by the assessment of the vulnerabilities
in the likely areas of impact to the types of physical or operational agents potentially resulting from a hazard
event.
Vulnerability Assessment
There are two methods available to the Committee to assess the communities’ vulnerabilities to
future disasters.
The first method is a methodical, qualitative examination of the vulnerabilities of important facilities,
systems and neighborhoods to the impacts of future disasters. For the participating jurisdictions and
organizations, this is completed by the individuals most familiar with the facility, system or neighborhood
through a guided, objective assessment process established by committee.
The process ranks both the hazards to which the facility, system or neighborhood is most
vulnerable, as well as the consequences to the community should it be disrupted or damaged by a disaster.
This process typically results in identification of specific vulnerabilities that can be addressed by specific
mitigation initiatives that can be proposed and incorporated into this plan.
As an associated process, the Committee also reviews past experiences with disasters to see if
those events highlighted the need for specific mitigation initiatives based on the type or location of damage
they caused. Again, these experiences can result in the formulation and characterization of specific
mitigation initiatives for incorporation into the plan.
22
The second method for assessment of community vulnerabilities involves comparison of the
existing policy, program and regulatory framework promulgated by local jurisdictions to control growth,
development and facility operations in a manner that minimizes vulnerability to future disasters.
The Committee members can assess the individual jurisdictions’ existing codes, plans, and
programs to compare their provisions and requirements against the hazards posing the greatest risk to that
community. If indicated, the participating jurisdiction can then propose development of additional codes,
plans or policies as mitigation initiatives for incorporation into the Suwannee County Local Mitigation
Strategy for future implementation when it is appropriate to do so.
The following documents were consulted:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Suwannee County Floodplain Ordinance
Suwannee County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
Suwannee County Comprehensive Plan
City of Live Oak Comprehensive Plan
Town of Branford Comprehensive Plan
Suwannee Water Management District Plan
State Comprehensive Plan
State Hazard Mitigation Plan
Developing Hazard Mitigation Initiatives
Developing hazard mitigation initiatives or projects enables the Committee participants to highlight
the most significant vulnerabilities, again to assist in prioritizing subsequent efforts to formulate and
characterize specific hazard mitigation initiatives to eliminate or minimize those vulnerabilities.
Once the highest priorities are defined, the Committee participants can identify specific mitigation
initiatives for the plan that would eliminate or minimize those vulnerabilities. This procedure involves
describing the initiative, relating it to one of the goals and objectives established by the Committee, and
justifying its implementation on the basis of its economic benefits and/or protection of public health and
safety, as well as valuable or irreplaceable resources.
Further, each proposed mitigation initiative is “prioritized” for implementation in a consistent
manner by each participating organization using a set of nine objective criteria.
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
Support Public Health and Safety
Protect Lives
Protect Property
Reduce Future Damage
Protect Natural Resources and Environmental Quality
Protect Cultural Resources
Support Essential Services
Support Community LMS and Community Guiding Principles
Ensure Regional Benefits
23
In characterizing a mitigation initiative for incorporation into the Committee’s plan, it is important to
recognize that the level of analysis conducted by each organization involved has been intentionally
designed to be appropriate for this stage in the planning process.
In the interest of the Committee to have a satisfactory level of confidence that a proposed
mitigation initiative, when it is implemented, will be cost effective, feasible to implement, acceptable to the
community, and technically effective in its purpose. To do this, the technical analyses conducted, including
the development of a benefit to cost ratio for each proposal, have been based on a straightforward,
streamlined approach, relying largely on the informed judgment of experienced local officials.
The analyses have not been specifically designed to meet the known or anticipated requirements
of any state or federal funding agency, due largely to the fact that such requirements can vary with the
agency and type of proposal. Therefore, at the point when the organization proposing the initiative is
applying for funding from any state or federal agency, or from any other public or private funding source,
that organization will then address the specific informational or analytical requirements of the funding
agency.
Developing the Local Mitigation Plan
Once the above procedure is completed by the agency or organization developing the proposed
mitigation initiative, the information used to characterize the initiative is submitted to the Committee for
review and inter-jurisdictional coordination.
The Committee also assures that the proposal is consistent with the goals and objectives
established by each jurisdiction for the planning period. Once the Committee has reviewed and coordinated
the submitted initiative, it is formally considered for incorporation into the Suwannee County Local
Mitigation Strategy. The Committee again can assure that the proposed initiative is consistent with the
goals and objectives for the planning period and would be beneficial for the community as a whole if and
when implemented. If so, the Committee then informally votes to incorporate the proposed initiative into
the strategy.
During routine updates of the Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy, each mitigation initiative
included in the plan is evaluated to determine if it is still valid or should be removed from the plan, or
whether its implementation should be a priority or deferred until a later time.
Approval of the Current Edition of the Plan
At the end of each planning period, a plan document such as this is prepared for release to the
community and for action by the governing bodies of the jurisdictions and organizations that participated in
the planning process.
Implementation of Approved Mitigation Initiatives
Once incorporated into the Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy, the agency or organization
proposing the initiative becomes responsible for its implementation. This could be developing a budget for
24
the effort, or making application to state and federal agencies for financial support for implementation. This
is the approach utilized by the Suwannee County Committee because only the jurisdiction or organization
itself has the authorities or responsibilities to implement its proposed mitigation initiatives.
Current Status of Participation in the Committee
In order to support the participating jurisdictions in the completion of the community profiles and
vulnerability assessments, the Committee sets a schedule for each technical analysis step, provides
training in the evaluations needed, and distributes the necessary forms for completion.
The support staff serving the Committee is from the Suwannee County Emergency Management.
Staff facilitated the work of the Committee by preparing agendas, notifying the Committee of upcoming
meetings, and processing meeting products. In addition they were responsible for the preparation of this
LMS plan.
The participating jurisdictions, organizations, and individuals in the Suwannee County Mitigation
Strategy Committee have all worked diligently to complete this plan, and will continue to do so in the future
to create a truly disaster resistant community for the benefit of all its citizens.
25
Section Three
Suwannee County
Jurisdictional Profile
Figure 3.1 – Map of Suwannee County
Demographic Data
Suwannee County is located in Florida and is bordered by Hamilton County to the north,
Columbia County to the east, Gilchrist County on the southeast, and Lafayette County on the west, and
Madison County on the northwest. Suwannee County was founded on December 21,1858 and was named
after the Suwannee River. The Suwannee River forms the entire northern and western boundaries, and
about 75 percent of the southern boundary of the county.
Suwannee County encompasses 692 square miles (1,792 km²), of which 688 square miles
(1,781 km²) is land and 4 square miles (11 km²) are covered by water. Average temperatures in Suwannee
County range from 71°F to 93°F in the summer and 40°F to 65°F in the winter. The average rainfall for the
County is 53.7 inches.
There are two municipalities in Suwannee County; the City of Live Oak (which is the county
26
seat) and the Town of Branford. The major agricultural crops are timber, poultry, pecans, tobacco, and
watermelons. The principal commodities are wood and lumber, food products and chemicals.
Population
In 2009, the population of Suwannee County was estimated to be 40,230, 59 persons per
square mile. The County has experienced increased growth over the last 20 years, with a 30.1% increase
in population between the years 1990 – 2000. Overall, growth in the county is expected to increase at a
medium rate over the next 20 years.
Table 3.1 - Suwannee County Population
Suwannee
County
Residents
Year
2009
Population
40,230
2010
43,135 –projected
figure
2015
45,304 – projected
figure
Percent Increase
15.9% Percent
Increase between
2000 – 2009
7.2% Projected
percent increase
between 2009 –
2010
5% Projected
percent increase
between 2010 2015
Households and Families
According to the Census, a household includes all of he people who occupy a housing unit. The occupants
may be a single family, one person living alone, two or more families living together, or any group of related
or unrelated people who share living quarters.
In 2009 there were 15,594 total households in Suwannee County, a 15.9% change since 2000.
Poverty
2008 – Living below poverty – 19.9%
2008 – Ages 0-17 living below poverty – 27.4%
Education
Persons aged 25 or over with a highschool degree – 73.2%
Persons aged 25 or over with a bachelor’s degree or higher – 10.5%
27
Infrastructure
Transportation
Major transportation routes in Suwannee County include Federal Interstates I-10 and I-75 (in
the northeast corner of the state). Other major highways include State Roads (SRs) 90, 129 and 51. For the
State Highways, there are 128.9 centerline miles and 332.7 lane miles.
All major transportation systems in the County receive use by passenger and commercial
traffic. These roadways pass through the County’s most densely populated areas as well as
environmentally sensitive lands.
State Facilities
Buildings/Facilities
Square Footage
38
529,164
State Lands
Conservation Lands – Parcels – 41/Acreage – 2885
Non-Conservation Lands – Parcels – 44/Acreage - 809
Employment
Table 3.2 – Average Annual Employment, % by Category, 2008
Natural Resource and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Suwannee County
6.4%
5.9%
N/A
23.7%
0.7%
2.2%
4.8%
14.3%
7.6%
1.9%
18.3%
There are six major private sector employers in the County. The largest private employer is
Pilgrim’s Pride poultry manufacturing plant located in Live Oak. The 2nd is Advent Christian Village, 3rd is
Shands of Live Oak, 4th Florida Sherris Youth Ranch, 5th Musgrove Construction, and the 6h is Suwannee
Valley Electric Co-Op.
The unemployment rate in 2009 was 10.0%.
28
Table 3.3 – Average Annual Wage, 2008
All industries
Natural Resource and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Suwannee County
$28,369
$24,458
$29,957
N/A
$26,593
$38,133
$27,155
$29,481
$26,881
$11,937
$24,084
$37,871
Crime
Crime rate for 2009 (index crimes per 100,000 population)
Admissions to prison FY 2008 – 2009
Admissions to prison for FY 2009 – 2009 (per 100,000 population)
2580.2
228
556.7
Source: Florida Association of Counties - http://www.fl-Counties.com/Pages/About_Floridas_Counties/County_Statistics.aspx
Agriculture in Suwannee County
Average size of farms: 161 acres
Average value of agricultural products sold per farm: $128,995
Average value of crops sold per acre for harvested cropland: $812.18
The value of nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, and sod as a percentage of the total market value of
agricultural products sold: 3.17%
The value of livestock, poultry, and their products as a percentage of the total market value of agricultural
products sold: 76.10%
Average total farm production expenses per farm: $92,649
Harvested cropland as a percentage of land in farms: 23.52%
Irrigated harvested cropland as a percentage of land in farms: 40.41%
Average market value of all machinery and equipment per farm: $46,675
The percentage of farms operated by a family or individual: 92.41%
Average age of principal farm operators: 58 years
Average number of cattle and calves per 100 acres of all land in farms: 24.25
Milk cows as a percentage of all cattle and calves: 21.29%
Corn for grain: 1807 harvested acres
Vegetables: 6945 harvested acres
Land in orchards: 732 acres
29
Source: www.city-data.com/county/Suwannee _County-FL.html
Additional Agricultural Facts:
Table 3.4 – USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Livestock County Estimates – 1/1/2008
County
Suwannee
Cattle All
43,000
Beef Cows
15,000
Milk Cows
9,000
Table 3.5 – Agricultural Statistics for Suwannee County
Suwannee County
Volume (acres,
head)
Agriculture
Bee Colonies
7
Field Crops
Field Corn
6,600
Peanuts
9,100
Rye
350
Soybeans
400
Sorghum for
205
Silage
Tobacco
1,000
Fruit, Nuts and Melons
Cantaloupes
48
Pecans
649
Watermelon
2,038
Horticulture
Acres in open
354
Greenhouses
319,640
/sq ft
Livestock
Beef
33,000
Cattle/Calves
Dairy Cattle
11,000
Goats
1,324
Horse/Ponies
2,203
Poultry –
5,839,793
Broilers
Poultry – Layers 322,268
Sheep
4
Vegetables
Jan – Mar
Apr – Jun
Jul – Sep
Oct - Dec
Dormant
Active
Active
Active
Plant
Plant
Plant
Plant
Plant
Grow
Grow
Grow
Grow
Grow
Harvest
Harvest
Harvest
Harvest
Harvest
Plant
Grown
Harvest
Plant
Dormant
Plant
Harvest
Grow
Harvest
Nut Set
Harvest
In production
In production
In production
In production
In production
In production
In production
In production
Over-winter
Calving
Growing
Growing
In production
Over-winter
Over-winter
In production
In production
Kidding
Foaling
In production
In production
Growing
Growing
In production
In production
Growing
Growing
In production
In production
Over-winter
In production
Lambing
In production
Growing
In production
Growing
30
Cabbage
Cucumbers
Peppers
Squash
Tomatoes
Woodland Crops
Christmas Trees
Undisclosed
Undisclosed
138
54
Undisclosed
Harvest
Harvest
Plant
Plant
Plant
Harvest
Harvest
Harvest
Harvest
Harvest
48
Plant
Grow
Plant
Plant
Grow
Harvest
Source: www.Florida-Agriculture.com (2002 Census of Agriculture; 2004 USDA NASS Quick Stats; 2005 USDA NASS Quick
Stats; 2006 USDA NASS Quick Stats)
Current Land Use
The County is largely rural in nature with large tract of forested and agricultural lands.
Approximately 20 percent of the County population is located within the incorporated municipalities. The
remaining 80 percent of the population resides in unincorporated areas. See table 3.2 for population trends,
projections and percent increase.
In addition, in the attachments, section three, Current Land Use Maps there are two maps
prepared by the Florida Department of Community Affairs, Division of Community Planning identifying the
“existing land use” for flood zones and wildfire susceptible areas.
Future Land Use and Development Trends
See the attachments, section three, Future Land Use Maps (FLUM), SUFU31_letter size
for the FLUM 2021 for Suwannee County. As noted in the FLUM, the county predictions is predominately
forested and agricultural land with the overall population growth expected to increase at a medium rate over
the next 20 years.
Also, in the attachments, section three, future land use maps, there is one map prepared
by the Florida Department of Community Affairs, Division of Community Planning identifying the “future
land use” for potential sinkhole hazard areas.
31
Section Four
Hazard Identification
and Vulnerability Analysis
Important Note for this section: In the previous LMS plan, the committee members identified,
examined and defined hazards that threaten the county.
Selected hazards are summarized with the following:
•
•
•
•
Probability Statement
Vulnerability Assessment
Extent Statement
Potential Loss Assessment
For this updated plan, the county used the “best available data” for the vulnerability in terms of the
types and numbers of existing buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified
hazard areas; in addition to estimating the potential dollar losses to the vulnerable structures. This
data was obtained from the Mapping for Emergency Management Parallel Hazard Information
System (MEMPHIS).
The natural hazards that will have the MEMPHIS data for the County’s infrastructure and critical
facilities are as follows: flood, sinkholes, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hailstorms and
wildfires.
The hazards that do not have a direct impact on structures and therefore will be excluded from
calculating potential dollar losses are as follows: riverine erosion, drought/heat wave, and winter
storms/freezing temperatures.
Introduction
This section of the Local Mitigation Strategy assesses the community’s vulnerability of the hazard’s impact
on the community and its vulnerable structures.
Specifically, this section provides the following:
1. Description of all types of natural hazards that can affect the community.
There were hazards from the previous LMS plan that were combined or deleted for this updated
LMS plan.
(a) Combined hazards – drought was combined with heat wave; lightning was combined
with thunderstorms; and freezing temperatures was combined with winter storms.
(b) Deleted hazards - earthquakes, landslides, tsunami, coastal erosion, and volcanic
32
activity were deleted as these hazards are not considered a risk to the County, therefore they will
not be discussed further.
2. Description of the location, probability and extent of each identified hazard that can affect the
jurisdiction.
3. Description of the community’s vulnerability to each identified hazard.
4. Description of vulnerability in terms of the types and numbers of existing buildings,
infrastructure, and critical facilities located in each identified hazard area; and the vulnerability
in terms of an estimate for each identified hazard of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable
structures using the MEMPHIS data.
5. Identification of the community’s Critical Facilities and an assessment of the vulnerability of
these facilities to various types of natural hazards.
6. An assessment of each jurisdictions risk where they vary from the risks facing the entire
community for each identified hazard.
7. POLICY: As additional data becomes available, Suwannee County will update the vulnerability
in terms of the types and numbers of future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities
located in the identified hazard areas.
Vulnerability Assessments
The vulnerability assessment process for the Suwannee County LMS Committee begins with
profiling the communities of Suwannee County and examining specific characteristics that contribute to the
vulnerability of the structures, people, and functioning of that specific component of the community. These
assessments build on the identification of hazards in the community and the risk that the hazards pose to
the community.
The assessment conducted by the Suwannee County LMS Committee includes determining the
potential cost for property damage as a measure of vulnerability. The summary data of the potential
damage is from the MEMPHIS analysis. The details are in the vulnerability assessment tables in terms of
number of structures and total dollars for the entire county. However, each jurisdiction vulnerability
(structures and total dollars) data is available in the potential loss area at the end of selected hazard
sections.
The critical facilities documents assesses the jurisdictions for the presence of what is termed
“critical facilities,” which are structures whose function is very important to the safety and welfare of the
community. The presence of critical facilities in a jurisdiction increases the importance of mitigating the
potential for future disaster impacts in such area. The critical facility was reviewed and updated for this
LMS plan.
33
The vulnerability assessment process examines more specifically how the facilities, systems and
neighborhoods of Suwannee County would be damaged or disrupted by the hazard events identified during
the earlier work of the Suwannee County LMS Committee participants.
Probability Assessments
Throughout the hazard section, the probability of future events will be determined for the natural
hazards. The probability or “chance of occurrence” is defined using an ordinal scale.
The scale is as follows:
Low = At least 1 occurrence every 10 years
Medium = At least 1 occurrence every 3 years
High = At least 1 occurrence every year
Estimation of Potential Losses
To determine the “risk assessment” for the county, the committee determined that the data would
be obtained from MEMPHIS. The tables within the specific hazard section(s) evaluates the following:
•
•
•
The population at risk in zone areas (very low) to (very high)
The structures at risk in zone areas (very low) to (very high)
The value of the structures at risk in zone areas (very low) to (very high)
Extent Assessment
Throughout the hazard section the extent statements will be determined for the hazards. The
statements will be based on the range of magnitude or severity that the county could experience using a
scientific scale or a quantitative measurement.
Types of scientific scales:
Fujita Scale for tornadoes
TORRO Hail Scale for hailstorms
Saffir-Simpson Scale for hurricanes
Palmer Index for drought
Climate Risk Tool for winter storms/freeze
Quantitative measurements based on historical occurrences:
Flood depth for floods
Acres burned for wildfires
Dimensions (length, width and depth) for sinkholes
or
High, medium or low based on the previous event occurrence
34
MEMPHIS Hazard Model Analysis
The Florida Department of Community Affairs has provided the Mapping for Emergency
Management, Parallel Hazard Information System (MEMPHIS) to model hazards in every county in Florida.
MEMPHIS uses geographical information system technology (GIS) to estimate the potential damage and
dollar losses resulting from a variety of natural hazards. The MEMPHIS hazard model, combined with a
geographical representation of Florida Department of Revenue records, allows MEMPHIS to estimate
damage to all structures on record and their contents, depending on the severity of the hazard event.
The following information is reproduced from the MEMPHIS website methodology reference guide
to explain how hazard potential and dollar losses for specific hazards are generated.
Hurricanes/Winter Storms
Historical storms (past 153 years for tropical cyclones and past 50 years for winter storms) were
simulated using the TAOS model, version 10.2. Winds, wave, rainfall, and storm surge perils were
computed, and hazard zones created. Flood zones and wind layers were created, and tables were created
based on percent damage expected. Additionally, FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Figure (FIRM) data was
ingested, and the tabular data sets were run for comparison.
Tornadoes
Tornado track data since 1950 from the National Weather Service was analyzed to determine the
annual probability that a tornado would cause damage to a structure in each 90m grid cell in Florida. The
data was stratified into four annual probability classes: High risk (1 in 100 or greater), Medium risk (1 in
101 to 1 in 250), or low (1 in 250 to 1 in 500 chance).
Wildfire Potential
The wildfire potential figure was created by reclassifying the land cover data sets created for the
hydrologic models. These data sets were reclassified to equate the Anderson Level II classification to fuel
models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System (Burgan et al, 2000). These fuel models are an
indication of the ability of a fire to start and spread in the given terrain type, and are used as the input to the
Fire Potential Index as well as fire spreading models. The resulting figure was compared with the NFDR
Fuel Model Figure created by the US Forest Service (USFS). The NFDR Fuel Model Figure is used for the
next generation fire danger rating system being developed by USFS, and is a nationwide figure at a
resolution of 1000 meters per grid cell based on data from 1997. The KAC developed figure for Florida is
at a resolution of 90 meters, and compares well the much more general national figure while providing a
great deal of additional detail, as well as being more up to date due to land cover changes.
Each of the fuel models was assigned to a risk code of “low”, “medium”, or “high”, based on fire
spreading potential during a climatologically “dry” year, and processed with the statewide parcel data base
to create the tables supplied with the LMS analysis. The mode of the fuel types within 500 meters of the
parcel was used to determine risk category for the parcel.
Note: In the analysis for the MEMPHIS models; the key code identification is as follows:
DOR – Department of Revenue; KAC – Kinetic Analysis Corporation; Lang Iso – Language Isolated
35
Sing Prnt – Single Parent
Recent Disaster History
When a disaster strikes that overwhelms the ability of local communities to respond, the President
of the United States can declare the affected communities a federal disaster area. This enables local
communities to receive federal disaster assistance. Disaster assistance includes public assistance for
disaster related losses to local governments, family and individual assistance, low interest loans to
businesses to cope with lost revenues during the rebuilding process, and hazard mitigation grants to help
fund projects to reduce local vulnerability to future disasters.
Table 4.1 lists the major disasters that have occurred recently Suwannee County. Previous
occurrences (i.e. historical events) are documented within this section for the following hazards: floods,
sinkholes, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, lightning, hailstorms, wildfire, drought/heat wave, and
winter storms/freezing temperatures.
Table 4.1 Recent Major Disasters in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Declaration
#1785
Date
8/24/2008
Event
Tropical Storm Fay
Primary Damage
Road damage, wind damage,
debris
#1831
4/21/2009
Severe Storms,
Flooding,
Tornadoes and
Straight-line Winds
Road damage, wind damage,
debris
Jurisdiction
Suwannee
County; Live Oak,
Branford
Suwannee
County; Live Oak,
Branford
Suwannee County received federal assistance on two of the above declarations:
Declaration # 1785 - Public Assistance
Declarations # 1831 – Public and Individual Assistance
Source: FEMA - http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters.fema
Natural Hazards
Flood
A flood is an overflow of water onto normally dry land. The inundation of a normally dry area
caused by rising water in an existing waterway, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch, or the ponding of
water at or near the point where the rain fell. Flooding is a longer-term event than flash flooding: it may last
days or weeks.
36
Figure 4.1 was created by FCIT and shows the waterways of Suwannee County. All major rivers,
streams, creeks, lakes, and swamps are labeled. This map features Rocky Creek, Suwannee River, and
Santa Fe River. Place Names: Suwannee, Rocky Creek, Suwannee River, Santa Fe River, Live Oak,
Crawford Lake, McClellan Lake, Peacock Lake, Rocky Creek, Tiger Branch, Tiger Bay.
Figure 4.1 - Hydrography Map of Suwannee County
Source: http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/maps/pages/11200/f11274/f11274.htm
Suwannee County areas of flood probability were identified using the FEMA Flood
Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). See attachments, section four, Suwannee FIRM.
The FIRM
•
•
•
•
Delineates Special Flood Hazard Areas, which are areas with a 1% chance of being flooded in any
given year.
They delineate Floodways, which are the stream channels and those portions of the adjacent flood
plains that must remain open to permit passage of the base flood without raising the water surface
elevation by more than one foot.
Delineates areas of 500-year flood, which are those areas of 100-year flood with average flood
depths of less than 1 foot or with drainage areas of less than one square mile.
Identifies Flood prone areas, for purposes of this plan, include most of those areas within the
Special Flood Hazard Area, the Floodway, and the 500-year flood plain
Due to its inland location, Suwannee County is not subject to coastal flooding, but is subject to
riverine flooding by virtue of the Suwannee River. There is also a significant amount of low-lying area in the
37
center of the county that would be subject to isolated lowland flooding.
The most severe floods near Suwannee River are associated with storms, or sequences of storms,
that produce widespread distribution of rainfall for several days in duration. The area is also subject to
summer and fall tropical disturbances, occasionally of hurricane intensity. Flooding occurs in all seasons,
but maximum annual stages occur most frequently from February through April as a result of a series of
frontal-type rainfall events over the river. Riverine and inland flooding is not only a threat due to tropical
storms and hurricanes, but can also occur from the severe and numerous thunderstorms that can occur
from the spring to the fall months each year. In the spring, thunderstorms occur when warm troughs push
back the cold weather to the north and gathering fuel from the moisture of the gulf. In the summer, short,
but severe rains are generated from the heat of the summer day evaporating moisture into the air. In the
fall, the cooler weather from the north pushes back the warmer weather and again, gathers fuel from the
gulf, creating isolated thunderstorms.
The flood-related areas are generally based on the FIRM. However, another map that was
compiled by Kinetic Analysis Corporation (KAC), a company that provides hazard-related maps for the
Florida Department of Community Affairs, outlines the flood prone areas and associated structural,
population, and valuation data. Flood occurrence probability was divided into four categories: none (100
year), rare (25 year), occasional (10 year), and frequent (2 year). Historical flood occurrence records were
obtained from the Suwannee River Water Management District and the flood study.
Figure 4.2 - Flood Map for Suwannee County
Source: www.lmsmaps.kinanco.com
38
Definitions of FEMA Flood Zone Designations
Flood zones are geographic areas that FEMA has defined according to varying levels of flood risk.
These zones are depicted on a community’s FIRM or Flood Hazard Boundary Map. Each zone reflects the
severity of type of flooding in the area.
The FIRM map indicates that for the Suwannee County, the flood zones are: X , A, and AE
(ZONE X) – Moderate to Low Risk Areas
In communities that participate in the NFIP, flood insurance is available to all property owners and renters
in these zones. ZONE DESCRIPTION X – Area of minimal flood hazard, usually depicted on FIRMS as
above the 500-year flood level. Zone X is the area determined to be outside the 500-year flood and
protected by levee from 100-year flood.
(ZONE A and AE) – High Risk Areas
In communities that participate in the NFIP, mandatory flood insurance purchase requirements apply to all
of these zones. ZONE DESCRIPTION A – Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding and a 26% chance
of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage. Because detailed analyses are not performed for such
areas; no depths or base flood elevation area shown within these zones. ZONE DESCRIPTION AE - The
base floodplain where base flood elevations are provided. AE Zones are now used on new format FIRMs
instead of A1-A30 Zones.
Flood Study
As noted above, Suwannee County and FEMA completed a flood insurance study number
12121CV000A, September 28, 2007. The details on the study are in attachments, section four, Flood
Insurance Study.Suwannee.County.
Elevation and Height Data
A flood map is the final outcome of a multitude of measurement, engineering, and data analysis
tasks. The purpose of a flood study is to predict the height of water and the extent to which it will inundate
the landscape in a modeled flood event. The elevations of the land, water, and hydraulic structures (e.g.,
bridges) are key elements in a flood study, and the accuracy to which these elements are determined is a
critical factor in the accuracy of the final flood map.
The data components of a flood study that involve a measurement of height or elevation can be
grouped into four general categories:
1. Elevation reference surface. Before elevation can be measured or the data used in engineering
analysis, a measurement system must be established. The location of “zero” and a physical reference for
elevation zero (in other words, a vertical datum) must be established on the Earth, where it can be used for
all types of height measurements.
2. Base surface elevation. Two types of base surfaces are important to flood studies: land surface
elevation (topography) and its underwater equivalent (bathymetry). Topography is expressed as the height
39
of a location above the geodetic datum and is in most cases a positive value. Bathymetry is expressed as
the depth of the land surface below rivers, lakes, and oceans; positive depth is equivalent to negative
elevation.
3. Water surface elevation. The depth of water in rivers, lakes, and streams and the point at which
water overtops their banks and spreads across the landscape are the subjects of riverine flood studies. The
depth of water in the ocean and the impact of extreme events such as hurricane-induced storm surge or
earthquake-induced tsunamis are the subjects of coastal flood studies. The height of water surfaces is
measured with stream and tide gages. The location and elevation of the gages themselves must be
determined accurately in order to correctly relate water surface measurements to other elevations.
4. Structure elevation. The vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to flood damage is directly
related to their location with respect to the floodplain and the elevation and orientation of critical structural
components with respect to the height of potential floodwaters. In addition, structures within the floodway
(such as bridges, dams, levees, and culverts) influence the conveyance of water in a stream channel during
a flood event, affecting flood heights.
FEMA Land Surface Elevation Accuracy Standards
FEMA has established two land surface elevation accuracy standards, depending on whether the terrain is
flat or rolling to hilly.
1. Two-foot contour interval equivalent for flat terrain (vertical accuracy = 1.2 feet at the 95 percent
confidence level). This means that 95 percent of the elevations in the dataset will have an error with respect
to true ground elevation that is equal to or smaller than 1.2 feet.
2. Four-foot contour interval equivalent for rolling to hilly terrain (vertical accuracy = 2.4 feet at the 95
percent confidence level.)
These standards provide a benchmark for determining the importance of variations in the way
elevation is measured and defined in the flood mapping process.
Source: The National Academies Press - http://www.nap.edu/
Details from the FEMA Flood Insurance Study
Note: The flood insurance study for Suwannee County provides extensive detail and scientific
data. Highlighted details are provided below.
Community Description
The topography ranges from 10 feet National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NFVD) to about
109 feet NGVD. The county is in the Gulf Coastal Lowlands physiographic area. The stratified components
are mainly basal rocks, clays, and a unique limestone cap, which is thousands of feet deep and extends
over most of the state. The ground water accumulation in the porous limestone forms statewide
40
underground reservoirs known as aquifers. These aquifers feed the numerous springs located in Suwannee
County and throughout much of the state.
Principal Flood Problems
The Suwannee River experiences greater stage variations than any other river in Florida and
creates significant flooding problems.
The most severe floods in the Suwannee River basin are associated with storms or sequences of
storms that produce widespread distribution of rainfall for several days duration. Flooding occurs in all
seasons, but maximum annual stages occur most frequently from February through April as a result of a
series of frontal-type rainfall events over the basin. The area also is subject to summer and fall tropical
disturbances, occasionally of hurricane intensity. Thunderstorms caused by summer air mass activity
produce intense rainfall, but the duration is usually short and the aerial distribution is relatively small. The
coastal reach of the Suwannee River is susceptible to tidal flooding from hurricanes and other low-pressure
systems that produce sustained, strong, westerly component winds.
Historical Flood Events
Flood of 1928
The 1928 flood was higher than the 1973 flood at Branford in the southern part of the county and
nearly as high at Ellaville. The peak discharges for the 1928 flood at Branford and Ellaville were 65,000 and
73,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), respectively.
Flood of 1948
The largest flood known to have occurred on the Suwannee River in Suwannee County was the
flood of March to April 1948. The most intense storm occurred in a 3-day period from March 31 to April 2. A
number of residences and commercial establishments were flooded in small towns that border the
Suwannee River in Suwannee County. Water was 8 feet deep in parts of Dowling Park (near Live Oak),
and 2 to 4 feet deep in Branford and Luraville. Major damage occurred to railroads, highways, bridges,
culverts, drainage ditches, and to property from loss of fills. Three weeks of emergency work were required
to restore minimum transportation and drainage facilities. Rail and highway traffic was detoured around the
area for 2 to 3 weeks, and some rail service was suspended for 6 weeks.
Flood of 1959
March 1959 was the fourth successive month during which rainfall was substantially above
average over most of Florida and Southern Georgia. During the first and third weeks of March, intense
frontal-type storms produced 6 to 8 inches of rainfall over most of the basin. Floodwaters covered an
estimated 350 square miles along the Suwannee River and its tributaries. Major damage was sustained by
urban development. Inconvenience resulted from flooded roads in areas in and adjacent to the flood plain.
Damage and loss of business were experienced by fishing camps, recreational developments, and tourist
and service businesses near a number of natural springs along the flood plain.
41
Flood of 1973
Another large flood occurred on the Suwannee River in Suwannee County in April 1973.
Antecedent conditions were conducive to high surface runoff. The 1973 flood was about 3 feet lower than
the 1948 flood at the southern end of the Suwannee County near the confluence of the Suwannee and
Sante Fe Rivers and about 4 feet lower at Dowling Park. Floodwaters remained over the lowlands for about
1 month. Many people evacuated their homes, and Suwannee County was included in the “major disaster
area” declared by the President.
Flood of 1984
Flooding in the spring 1984 along the Suwannee River was about 5.2 feet lower than 1948 flood at
Branford in the southern part of Suwannee County and about 7.4 feet lower at Ellaville in the northern part
of the county. Stages were 1.5 feet higher than the 959 stages at both Branford and Ellaville.
Table 4.2 – Historical Floods on the Suwannee River
Location
Near Bell
Near Branford
Near Ellaville
Near White Springs
1948
82,300
83,900
95,300
28,500
1928
70,000*
65,000*
73,000
20,600
Annual Peak Discharge (cfs)
1973
1984
54,200*
47,600*
54,700
42,200
77,000
46,000
38,100
26,100
1959
40,200*
34,100
45,200
20,100
* - estimated values
El Nino Floods of 1998
Suwannee County experienced significant flooding as a result of the heavy and prolonged El Nino
rainfalls in 1997 and 1998. Abnormally heavy and prolonged rainfalls from December 1997 through April of
1998 led to significant flooding in the Suwannee basin as well as inland low-lying areas of the county. The
Suwannee and the Withlacoochee both crested, and water levels in both rivers were significantly above
flood stage. Damages to people and structures were present, but not in significant numbers. The majority
of the existing structures in the flooded areas were elevated. The most significant damage from these flood
events was to roads. Many secondary roads and a few primary thoroughfares were underwater for
extended periods of time, causing inconvenience to residents and disruptions to businesses. These floods
also caused negative impacts to active farming operations in the county.
Flood of 2009
In April of 2009 heavy rains in Georgia caused the Withlacoochee and Alapaha rivers to flood,
sending torrents of water downstream to the Suwannee. The Suwannee and the Santa Fe Rivers both
crested, and water levels in both rivers were significantly above flood stage. Damages to people and
structures were present, and were high in numbers. The majority of the existing structures in the flooded
42
areas were elevated. The most significant damage from these flood events was to homes along the
Suwannee and Withlacoochee River. Many secondary roads and a few primary thoroughfares were
underwater for extended periods of time, causing inconvenience to residents and disruptions to businesses.
These floods also caused negative impacts to active farming operations in the county.
Table 4.3 – Declared disasters (flood) – Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Number
1831
Declared
4/21/2009
State
Florida
Description
Severe storms, flooding, tornadoes, and straight-line
winds
Suwannee County received individual assistance in for FEMA-1831 -DR
Source: FEMA – www.fema.gov/femaNews/disasterSearch
Flood Protection Measures
There are no existing or proposed flood protection projects located in Suwannee County in the
Suwannee River Basin.
Table 4.4 shows Historical Crest Elevations obtained from flood marks and estimated peak stages
based on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1974 data and Suwannee River Water Management District 2009
data.
Table 4.4 - Historical Crest Elevations (in feet), Suwannee County, Suwannee River
Source: http://www.mysuwanneeriver.com/index.aspx?nid=253
Data from NOAA:
WGUS82 KTAE 200147
FLSTAE/FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
SUWANNEE RIVER AT BRANFORD AFFECTING SUWANNEE AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES
SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.
Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/warn_archive/TAE/FLS/0420_014729.txt
43
44
Vulnerability for Suwannee Countywide
Vulnerability: The high probability of repeated riverine flooding a high level of vulnerability for
Suwannee County. A significant number of people can be affected by flooding, not only from having their
homes in flood prone areas, but also from the ancillary economic effects of disruptions to businesses
resulting from floods. The economic costs are high and the response costs are moderate. The likelihood of
floods occurring in the County is also high.
The vulnerability assessment in table 4.Flood reflects the types of buildings or structures and the
value of the structures throughout the County.
This data is for Suwannee Countywide, however, unincorporated Suwannee County, City of Live
Oak and Town of Branford structures and loss figures are recorded in the potential loss tables 4FLD (1-12)
at the end of this hazard description.
45
Table 4.Flood – Flood Vulnerability Assessment
for Suwannee Countywide Structures
Types of
Buildings/Land Use
Countywide Structures at Risk/Value of Structures at Risk
Zone AE
Zone
X500
Zone X
Zone A
Zone VE
Zone
UNDES
Zone
AO
Zone D
Zone
100IC
320/$70.42
MI
236/$20.26
MI
75/$24.01 MI
116/$18.
94 MI
81/$7.96
MI
19/$472.
13 TH
4216/$85
9.79 MI
3610/$25
9.07 MI
874/$39.
13 MI
424/$73.64
MI
210/$17.80
MI
62/$1.85
MI
236/$20.26
MI
75/$24.01 MI
81/$7.96 MI
47/$13.15 MI
19/$372.13
TH
25/$6.70 MI
3610/$35
9.07 MI
874/$39.
13 MI
503/$373
.14 MI
210/$17.
80 MI
62/$1.85
MI
91/$29.9
1 MI
75/$24.0
1 MI
47/$13.1
5 MI
73/$50.7
8 MI
Commercial -
47/$13.15 MI
25/$6.70
MI
503$373.
14 MI
91/$29.91
MI
73/$50.78 MI
52/$15.57 MI
509/$319
.45 MI
52/$34.2
6 MI
208/$62.
59 MI
Agriculture -
73/%50.78
MI
52/$15.5
7 MI
509/$319
.45 MI
52/$34.26
MI
208/$62.59
MI
110/$29.08
MI
5465/$1.
45 BI
311/$83.
62 MI
0/$0
Government/
Institutional -
208/$62.59
MI
110/$29.
08 MI
5465/$1.
45 BI
311/$83.62
MI
0/$0
0/$0
0/$0
0/$0
0/$0
Single Family
Mobile Homes
Multi-Family –
Retirement Homes
Multi-family less than 10 units
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Mixed Use (store and office)
Supermarkets
Professional Service Buildings
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Financial Institutions
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Parking and Storage Facilities
Convention Center
Improved Agriculture
Cropland Soil (Class 1 – 3)
Timberland
Ornamentals (Misc. Agric)
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
(Critical Facilities)
Public Schools
School Board Offices
Water Treatment Plants
Water Wells/Water Tanks
Wastewater Treatment Plants
Lift Stations
Radio/Communications Tower
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Maintenance/Natural Office
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Health Care/Medical Services
Coliseum Complex
Landfill Transfer Stations
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
County Emergency Operations
Center
Total of Critical Facilities
Other Government and
Institutional Buildings
Government Buildings
Other County Buildings
Other City Buildings
Public Schools (not critical
facilities)
Club, Lodges and Union Hall
Utilities
Churches
Clubs, Lodges and Union Hall
Forest, Park and Recreational
Library
Post office
Assisted Living Facilities
46
Probability: The flood damage probability is high (at least 1 occurrence every year).
Extent: The Committee determined that flooding due to severe thunderstorms and
hurricane activity could cause severe damage and extent for the county. Major damage could be to
buildings, critical facilities, infrastructure, railroads, highways, bridges, culverts, drainage ditches, and from
loss of fills.
Based on historical events, the largest flood known to have occurred on the Suwannee
River in Suwannee County was the flood of March to April 1948. The most intense storm occurred in a 3day period from March 31 to April 2. A number of residences and commercial establishments were flooded
in small towns that border the Suwannee River in Suwannee County. Water was 8 feet deep in parts of
Dowling Park (near Live Oak), and 2 to 4 feet deep in Branford and Luraville.
See details table 4.4, Historical River Level Elevation (in feet above Mean Sea Level – NGVD
1929). The flood stage levels are the point at which the surface of the river has risen to a sufficient level to
cause damage, and is considered a flood event.
Cities in Suwannee
County
Suwannee Springs
Ellaville
Dowling Park
Luraville
Branford
* Historical peak levels
Flood Stage
April 1948 River Level
Elevations
76.80
68.10*
61.46*
53.50*
38.88*
67
54
50
N/A
29
In April 1948, the river levels reached historical peaks. The Committee determined that this flood
would be the worse case scenario.
Source: The data in the following table(s) are from MEMPHIS
Table 4.FLD – Potential Losses from Floods
(Countywide and Unincorporated Suwannee)
Table 4.FLD.1 – Countywide Population at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
Total
1731
691
31144
1278
0
0
0
0
0
Minority
55
94
4434
700
0
0
0
0
0
Over 65
249
121
5283
236
0
0
0
0
0
Disabled
908
469
15514
608
0
0
0
0
0
Poverty
291
145
5506
383
0
0
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
134
56
1722
131
0
0
0
0
0
47
D
AH
V
100IC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD.2– Countywide Structures at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
Total
959
403
15177
1150
0
0
639
287
10961
726
0
0
403
SF Res
320
116
4216
424
0
0
236
81
3610
210
0
0
75
Mob Home
236
81
3610
210
0
0
75
19
874
62
0
0
47
MF Res
75
19
874
62
0
0
47
25
503
91
0
0
73
Commercial
47
25
503
91
0
0
73
52
509
52
0
0
208
Agriculture
73
52
509
52
0
0
208
110
5465
311
0
0
0
Gov/Instit
208
110
5465
311
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD.3 – Countywide Value of Structures by
DOR Use for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
Total
SF Res
AE
$ 241.20
MI
$ 78.62
MI
$ 3.40 BI
$ 70.42
MI
$ 18.94
MI
$
859.79
MI
$ 73.64
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 20.26
MI
$ 7.96
MI
$
359.07
MI
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
$ 241.09
MI
$0.00
$ 0.00
$ 170.78
MI
$ 59.68
MI
$ 2.54 BI
Mob
Home
$ 20.26
MI
$ 7.96 MI
$ 359.07
MI
$ 17.80
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 24.01
MI
$ 372.13
TH
$ 39.13
MI
MF Res
$ 24.01
MI
$ 372.13
TH
$ 39.13
MI
Commercia
l
$ 13.15 MI
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 50.78 MI
$ 62.59 MI
$ 6.70 MI
$ 15.57 MI
$ 29.08 MI
$ 373.14 MI $ 319.45 MI $ 1.45 BI
$ 1.85 MI
$ 29.91 MI
$ 34.26 MI
$ 83.62 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 13.15
MI
$ 6.70 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 50.78 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 62.59 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 15.57 MI
$ 29.08 MI
$ 0.00
$ 373.14
MI
$ 319.45 MI $ 1.45 BI
$ 0.00
48
D
AH
V
100IC
$ 167.45
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 150.52
MI
$ 17.80
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 24.01
MI
$ 1.85 MI
$ 29.91
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 50.78
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 13.15
MI
$ 34.26 MI
$ 83.62 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 62.59 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Table 4.FLD.4 – Unincorporated County Population at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
Total
1731
0
25864
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Minority
55
0
2314
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Over 65
249
0
4352
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disabled
908
0
12762
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Poverty
291
0
4404
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
134
0
1166
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD.5– Unincorporated County Structures at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
Total
SF Res
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
858
281
12702
545
0
0
586
237
9942
446
0
0
358
272
44
2760
99
0
0
228
74
3381
146
0
0
73
Mob
Home
228
74
3381
146
0
0
73
16
717
29
0
0
25
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
73
16
717
29
0
0
25
4
210
13
0
0
59
25
4
210
13
0
0
59
36
294
8
0
0
201
59
36
294
8
0
0
201
107
5340
250
0
0
0
201
107
5340
250
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49
Table 4.FLD.6 – Unincorporated County Value of Structures
by DOR Use for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
Total
SF Res
AE
$ 222.59
MI
$ 57.78
MI
$ 65.72
MI
$ 9.01
MI
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
$ 2.66 BI $ 613.76
MI
$ 110.04 $ 19.60
MI
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 156.87
MI
$ 48.77
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 19.44
MI
$ 7.36
MI
AO
$ 2.04 BI $ 344.40
MI
D
$ 90.44
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 137.43
MI
AH
V
100IC
$ 14.32
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 23.98
MI
Mob
Home
$ 19.44
MI
$ 7.36
MI
MF Res Commercial
$ 23.98
MI
$
334.22
TH
$ 344.40 $ 22.20
MI
MI
$ 14.32 $
MI
297.33
TH
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 23.98 $ 8.14
MI
MI
$ 334.22 $
TH
768.48
TH
$ 22.20 $
MI
132.72
MI
$ 297.33 $ 2.83
TH
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 8.14
$ 44.72
MI
MI
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 8.14 MI
$ 44.72 MI
$ 60.59 MI
$ 768.48 TH
$ 12.20 MI
$ 28.10 MI
$ 132.72 MI
$ 121.13 MI
$ 1.42 BI
$ 2.83 MI
$ 1.82 MI
$ 71.17 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 44.72 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 60.59 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 12.20 MI
$ 28.10 MI
$ 0.00
$ 121.13 MI
$ 1.42 BI
$ 0.00
$ 1.82 MI
$ 71.17 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 60.59 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Table 4.FLD.7 – Live Oak Population at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
Total
0
0
5280
1278
0
0
0
0
0
0
Minority
0
0
2120
700
0
0
0
0
0
0
Over 65
0
0
931
236
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disabled
0
0
2752
608
0
0
0
0
0
0
Poverty
0
0
1102
383
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
0
556
131
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
AH
V
100IC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD.8– Live Oak Structures at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
Total
0
0
2354
605
0
0
0
0
976
280
0
0
0
SF Res
0
0
1378
325
0
0
0
0
217
64
0
0
0
Mob Home
0
0
217
64
0
0
0
0
148
33
0
0
0
MF Res
0
0
148
33
0
0
0
0
287
78
0
0
0
Commercial
0
0
287
78
0
0
0
0
204
44
0
0
0
Agriculture
0
0
204
44
0
0
0
0
120
61
0
0
0
Gov/Instit
0
0
120
61
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD. 9 – Live Oak Value of Structures by
DOR Use for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
Total
SF Res
AE
X500
X
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 565.78
MI
A
$ 131.04
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 333.58
MI
$ 77.00
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$
232.20
MI
$ 54.04
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 13.38
MI
$ 3.49
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
Mob
Home
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 13.38
MI
MF Res
$ 3.49 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 14.65
MI
$ 1.55 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Commercia
l
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 85.24 MI
Agriculture
$ 1.55 MI
$ 27.08 MI
$ 32.44 MI
$ 12.45 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 85.24
MI
$ 27.08
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 196.88 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 23.43 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 32.44 MI
$ 12.45 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 14.65
MI
Gov/Instit
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 196.88 MI $ 23.43 MI
51
Table 4.FLD.10 – Branford Population at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
Total
0
691
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Minority
0
94
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Over 65
0
121
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disabled
0
469
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Poverty
0
145
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
56
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD.11– Branford Structures at risk for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
Total
SF Res
AE
X500
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
101
122
120
0
0
0
53
50
42
0
0
0
45
48
72
78
0
0
0
8
7
12
0
0
0
2
Mob
Home
8
7
12
0
0
0
2
3
8
0
0
0
22
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
2
3
8
0
0
0
22
21
6
0
0
0
14
22
21
6
0
0
0
14
16
11
0
0
0
7
14
16
11
0
0
0
7
3
5
0
0
0
0
7
3
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.FLD.12 – Branford Value of Structures
by DOR Use for FEMA FIRM Zones
Zone
Total
SF Res
AE
$ 16.02
MI
$ 20.84
$ 4.70
MI
$ 9.93
X500
Mob
Home
$ 822.24
TH
$ 595.47
MF Res Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 22.73
TH
$ 37.92
$ 5.01 MI
$ 3.47 MI
$ 2.00 MI
$ 5.93 MI
$ 3.37 MI
$ 979.90
52
X
A
ANI
IN
VE
UNDES
AO
D
AH
V
100IC
MI
$ 22.70
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 11.33
MI
$ 10.91
MI
$ 8.86
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 10.50
MI
MI
$ 13.83
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 822.24
TH
$ 595.47
TH
$ 1.29
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 22.73
TH
TH
$ 1.29
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 22.73
TH
$ 37.92
TH
$ 2.28
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 5.01
MI
TH
$ 2.28
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 5.01
MI
$ 5.93
MI
$ 2.43
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 3.47
MI
$ 2.43 MI
$ 1.44 MI
TH
$ 1.43 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 3.47 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 2.00 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 3.37 MI
$ 979.90 TH
$ 0.00
$ 1.44 MI
$ 1.43 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 2.00 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Sinkhole
A sinkhole is a natural depression or hole in the Earth's surface caused by karst processes — the
chemical dissolution of carbonate rocks or suffosion processes f.e. in sandstone. Sinkholes may vary in
size from less than 1 to 600 meters (3.3 to 2,000 ft) both in diameter and depth, and vary in form from soillined bowls to bedrock-edged chasms. They may be formed gradually or suddenly, and are found
worldwide.
Sinkholes are a common feature of Florida's landscape. They are only one of many kinds of karst
landforms, which include caves, disappearing streams, springs, and underground drainage systems, all of
which occur in Florida. Dissolution of carbonate rocks begins when they are exposed to acidic water. Most
rainwater is slightly acidic and usually becomes more acidic as it moves through decaying plant debris.
Limestone in Florida is porous, allowing the acidic water to percolate through their strata, dissolving
some limestone and carrying it away in solution. Over eons of time, this persistent erosion process has
created extensive underground voids and drainage systems in much of the carbonate rocks throughout the
state. Collapse of overlying sediments into the underground cavities produces sinkholes.
There are 61 recorded sinkholes in Suwannee County per the Florida Department of
Environmental Protection. Some of the locations that are identified are in Live Oak, Beachville, and
Branford. Sinkholes may occur on private or public property and may or may not impact structures and
people.
The (2005 – 2009) data for the sinkhole events in Suwannee County is provided by the Florida
Center for Instructional Technology, Sinkholes (Tampa, FL: University of South Florida, 2008).
1) Wellborn - N/A, Fl
Longitude: -82.809722
Date of Occurrence: March 23, 2005
Latitude: 30.161389
2) Hildreth - Branford , Fl 32008
Date of Occurrence: November 8, 2006
Latitude: 29.952417
Latitude: 29.952417
Latitude: 29.952417
Latitude: 29.952417
Date of Occurrence: December 26, 2006
Latitude: 29.952417
Figure 4.3 - Sinkholes in Suwannee County
53
54
Source: http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/maps/galleries/sinkholes/index.php
Sinkhole potential was determined according to points assigned to each 90m-grid cell in the state.
Three classes of points were assigned, for distance to historic sinkholes, geology, and soils. Points
assigned and classes of points are as follows:
2 points if cell was within 2000m of an existing sinkhole;
1 point if cell between 2000m and 5000m of an existing sinkhole;
1 point if the cell was in the same USGS surface geologic unit as an existing sinkhole;
1 point if the cell was in the same NRCS soil unit as an existing sinkhole.
Thus, each cell as assigned a value from 0 to 4:
0: no significant risk
1: low risk
2: moderate risk
3: high risk
4: very high risk
Figure 4.4 - Sinkhole Risk and Potential
Source: http://lmsfigures.kinanco.com
Vulnerability for Suwannee Countywide: Sinkholes occur naturally in the County. When they strike
in populated areas or at critical facilities, they can be disastrous. Sinkholes can become disruptive to the
point of creating an emergency. Sinkholes are isolated events and the likelihood of them occurring is high
55
(1 occurrence every year).
The types of structures, the value of the structures and the vulnerability to sinkholes throughout the
County are listed in Table 4.Sink.
The potential loss data for population, number of structures and value of the structures countywide,
unincorporated Suwannee County, City of Live Oak and the Town of Branford are listed in Tables 4.5 (112).
56
Table 4.Sink – Sinkhole Vulnerability Assessment
Types of
Buildings/Land
Use
Zone – Low
Zone –
Medium
Zone – High
Zone – Very
High
Zone –
Extreme
Zone –
Adjacent
Single Family
2776/$627.5
4 MI
2486/$243.2
9 MI
540/$51.59
MI
827/$135.27
MI
235/$22.33
MI
132/$6.36 MI
240/$39.09
MI
70/$5.23 MI
69/$11.85 MI
30/$2.50 MI
3/$749.96
TH
0/$0
Multi-Family –
878/$179.02
MI
1264/$127.90
MI
316/$5.72 MI
17/$441.49
TH
5/$59.66 TH
0/$0
Commercial -
36/$8.18 MI
254/$158.20
MI
155/$187.86
MI
74/$19.72 MI
29/$30.67 MI
1/$12.89 MI
Agriculture -
137/$35.20 MI
270/$172.41
MI
155/$107.70
MI
57/$76.66 MI
19/$5.32 MI
0/$0
Government/
Institutional -
1916/$552.04
MI
3823/$986.5
1 MI
249/$55.45
MI
104/$30.71
MI
36/$6.94 MI
1/$119.50
TH
Mobile Homes
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Center
facilities)
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
57
Probability: The probability of sinkholes events occurring is high (at least 1 occurrence every year).
Extent for Suwannee Countywide: Based on the quantitative measurement, this hazard is
considered a high risk to the county.
a) In 2001, there were two recorded sinkholes with the following measurements:
Length (in feet)
5’
40’
Width (in feet)
5’
50’
Depth (in feet)
60’
50’
b) In addition, the emergency management office reported on a recent event that occurred in
January 2010. The largest number of sinkholes recorded on one property was over 20 sinkholes. The Town
of Branford and the surrounding area had received a measured 6.5” of rain within 2 hours (with the
possibility of more). Due to the amount of rain received a record number of sinkhole openings occurred with
our jurisdiction.
Sinkholes can cause extensive damage to structures and roads resulting in costly repairs. In
addition, they can threaten water supplies by draining unfiltered water from streams, lakes and wetlands
directly into the aquifer (underground water supply). Per the emergency management office, Suwannee
County has had damage to structures and roads from sinkhole events. There is no recorded damage to
vehicles or homes (that have sunk into the ground) in the County due to sinkholes.
Based on this historical data, the worse case scenario would be the sinkhole occurrences in 2001.
Table 4.5 -Potential Losses from Sinkholes
(Countywide, Unincorporated Suwannee, City of Live Oak and Branford)
Table 4.5.1 - Countywide Population at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
Total
8141
20311
3299
1452
0
0
Minority
665
2264
1027
515
0
0
Over 65
1111
3866
433
309
0
0
Disabled
4359
9724
1554
936
0
0
Poverty
1207
3535
741
446
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
342
1101
239
133
0
0
Table 4.5.2 - Countywide Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Total
Low
Medium
High
4547
10149
1753
SF Res Mob
Home
878
1264
2776
2486
827
235
MF
Res
316
540
132
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
36
254
155
137
270
155
1916
3823
249
58
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
562
188
5
240
69
3
70
30
0
17
5
0
74
29
1
57
19
0
104
36
1
Table 4.5.3 - Countywide Value of Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Very High
Mob
Home
$ 908.06 MI $ 179.02 MI $ 127.90
MI
$ 2.24 BI
$ 627.54 MI $ 243.29
MI
$ 514.97 MI $ 135.27 MI $ 22.33
MI
$ 171.85 MI $ 39.09 MI $ 5.23 MI
Extreme
$ 57.33 MI
$ 11.85 MI
$ 2.50 MI
Adjacent
$ 13.76 MI
$ 749.96
TH
$ 0.00
Low
Medium
High
Total
SF Res
MF Res
Commercial Agriculture
$ 5.72 MI
$ 8.18 MI
$ 35.20 MI
$ 51.59 MI
$ 158.20 MI
$ 172.41 MI
$ 6.36 MI
$ 187.86 MI
$ 107.70 MI
$ 441.49
TH
$ 59.66
TH
$ 0.00
$ 19.72 MI
$ 76.66 MI
$ 30.67 MI
$ 5.32 MI
$ 12.89 MI
$ 0.00
Gov/
Instit
$ 552.04
MI
$ 986.51
MI
$ 55.45
MI
$ 30.71
MI
$ 6.94 MI
$ 119.50
TH
Table 4.5.4 - Unincorporated County Population at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
Total
8141
17034
2420
0
0
0
Minority
665
1457
247
0
0
0
Over 65
1111
3086
404
0
0
0
Disabled
4359
8069
1242
0
0
0
Poverty
1207
3023
465
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
342
836
122
0
0
0
Table 4.5.5 - Unincorporated County Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Total
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
4547
9081
588
200
88
3
SF Res Mob
Home
878
1264
2088
2369
163
156
61
36
20
23
2
0
MF
Res
316
467
58
8
3
0
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
36
184
20
6
4
0
137
233
16
11
4
0
1916
3740
175
78
34
1
59
Table 4.5.6 - Unincorporated County Value of Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Total
Low
$ 905.48 MI $ 179.02
MI
$ 1.99 BI
$ 491.96
MI
$ 105.44 MI $ 33.95
MI
$ 44.98 MI $ 11.26
MI
$ 15.98 MI $ 4.18 MI
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
SF Res
$ 580.19
TH
$ 460.69
TH
Mob
Home
$ 127.90
MI
$ 236.40
MI
$ 16.64
MI
$ 3.28 MI
$ 1.94 MI
$ 0.00
MF Res
$ 5.72 MI
$ 8.18 MI
$ 32.62 MI
$ 39.79 MI
$ 122.42 MI
$ 131.31 MI
$ 1.16 MI
$ 4.12 MI
$ 10.28 MI
$ 349.93
TH
$ 28.97
TH
$ 0.00
$ 1.43 MI
$ 3.83 MI
$ 1.26 MI
$ 1.75 MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Gov/
Instit
$ 552.04
MI
$ 969.81
MI
$ 39.30
MI
$ 24.82
MI
$ 6.82 MI
$ 119.50
TH
Table 4.5.7 – Live Oak Population at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
Total
0
3277
879
761
0
0
Minority
0
807
780
421
0
0
Over 65
0
780
29
188
0
0
Disabled
0
1655
312
467
0
0
Poverty
0
512
276
301
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
265
117
77
0
0
Table 4.5.8 – Live Oak Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Total
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
0
1042
982
254
71
2
SF Res Mob
Home
0
0
672
114
568
65
106
27
36
3
1
0
MF
Res
0
72
62
8
1
0
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
66
106
55
22
1
0
37
115
37
7
0
0
81
66
21
2
0
Table 4.5.9 – Live Oak Value of Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Low
Medium
Total
SF Res
Mob
Home
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 245.51 MI $ 134.56 MI $ 6.62 MI
MF
Res
$ 0.00
$ 11.79
MI
$ 0.00
$ 34.93 MI
$ 0.00
$ 41.10 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 0.00
$ 16.52
MI
60
High
$ 226.03 MI $ 88.53 MI
$ 4.29 MI
Very High
$ 104.76 MI $ 15.62 MI
$ 1.08 MI
Extreme
$ 13.05 MI
$ 5.23 MI
Adjacent
$ 456.89
TH
$ 289.27
TH
$ 205.14
TH
$ 0.00
$ 2.88
MI
$ 76.95
TH
$ 7.54
TH
$ 0.00
$ 24.14 MI
$ 92.03 MI
$ 13.87 MI
$ 70.44 MI
$ 4.42 MI
$ 3.07 MI
$ 167.62 TH
$ 0.00
$ 14.15
MI
$ 3.68 MI
$ 113.11
TH
$ 0.00
Table 4.5.10 - Branford Population at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
Total
0
0
0
691
0
0
Minority
0
0
0
94
0
0
Over 65
0
0
0
121
0
0
Disabled
0
0
0
469
0
0
Poverty
0
0
0
145
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
0
0
56
0
0
Table 4.5.11 - Branford Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Total
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Extreme
Adjacent
0
25
186
108
29
0
SF Res Mob
Home
0
0
16
3
98
15
73
7
13
4
0
0
MF
Res
0
0
12
1
1
0
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
4
29
13
3
0
0
0
24
9
8
0
0
2
8
5
0
0
Table 4.5.12 - Branford Value of Structures at risk for KAC Sinkhole Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
Low
Medium
$ 0.00
$ 2.32 MI
$ 0.00
$ 1.03 MI
High
$ 31.19 MI
$ 13.14 MI
Very High
$ 22.10 MI
$ 12.20 MI
Extreme
$ 4.57 MI
$ 2.44 MI
Adjacent
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Mob
Home
$ 0.00
$ 262.87
TH
$ 1.50 MI
$ 870.03
TH
$ 350.06
TH
$ 0.00
MF
Res
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 849.52 TH
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 2.31
MI
$ 14.61
TH
$ 23.16
TH
$ 0.00
$ 6.85 MI
$ 5.39 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 0.00
$ 182.87
TH
$ 2.01 MI
$ 4.41 MI
$ 2.39 MI
$ 2.22 MI
$ 1.26 MI
$ 496.29 TH
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Source: Memphis
61
Hurricane
Tropical storms and tropical cyclones will be profiled within this section. A tropical storm is
classified as a hurricane once winds goes up to 74 miles per hour or higher.
A hurricane is a category of tropical cyclone characterized by thunderstorms and defined surface
wind circulation. Hurricanes develop over warm waters and are caused by the atmospheric instability
created by the collision of warm air with cooler air. Hurricane winds blow in a large spiral around a calm
center, which can be 20-30 miles wide. When a hurricane nears land, it may cause torrential rain, high
wind, storm surge, coastal flooding, inland flooding, and sometimes tornadoes.
Interesting facts on hurricanes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hurricanes are the only weather disasters that have been given their own names.
All hurricanes begin life in a warm moist atmosphere over tropical ocean waters.
A typical hurricane can dump 6 inches to a foot of rain across a region.
The most violent winds and heaviest rains take place in the eye wall, the ring of clouds and
thunderstorms closely surrounding the eye.
Every second, a large hurricane releases the energy of 10 atomic bombs.
Hurricanes can also produce tornadoes. They are not as strong as regular tornadoes and last only
a few minutes.
Slow moving hurricanes produce more rainfall and can cause more damage from flooding than
faster-moving, more powerful hurricanes.
Hurricane Floyd was barely a category I hurricane, but it still managed to mow down 19 million
trees and caused over a billion dollars in damage.
Most people who die in hurricanes are killed by the towering walls of seawater that comes inland.
Source: http://www.hurricane-facts.com/Interesting-Hurricane-Facts.php
Hurricanes are a seasonal occurrence, with the Atlantic Coast/Gulf of Mexico hurricane season
ranging from June 1 to November 30. Hurricanes pose a significant threat to Florida, particularly those
residents living along the coast. Suwannee County is not a coastal county, but is still subject to the wind
and water damage that hurricanes can bring, although to a lesser extent than a coastal Florida county.
Hurricanes are divided into categories based on strength. The following is a synopsis of these
categories as described in the North Central Florida Regional Hurricane Evacuation Study, Technical
Report prepared in 1990.
62
Table 4.6 - Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Tropical
Storm
Definition
Winds 74 – 95
mph
Effects
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.
Damage primarily to shrubbery, trees, foliage, and unanchored
mobile homes. No real damage to other structures. Some damage
to poorly constructed signs.
Winds 96 – 111
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.
mph
Considerable damage to shrubbery and tree foliage, with some trees
being blown down. Major damage to exposed mobile homes.
Extensive damage to poorly constructed signs. Some damage to
roofing materials and some window and door damage. No major
damage to buildings.
Winds 111 – 130
Devastating damage will occur.
mph
Foliage would be torn from trees and some large trees being blown
down. Some damage to roofing materials and some window and
door damage. Some structural damage to small buildings. Mobile
homes would be destroyed.
Winds 131 – 155
Catastrophic damage will occur.
mph
Shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Extensive damage to roofing
materials, windows and doors. Complete failure of roofs on many
small residences. Complete destruction of mobile homes.
Winds greater than Catastrophic damage will occur.
155 mph
Shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Considerable damage to
roofs of buildings. Very severe and extensive damage to windows
and doors. Some complete building failures. Small buildings may
be overturned or blown away. Complete destruction of mobile
homes.
Additional Classifications
Wind speed of 39 – 73 miles per hour; with a 0-3 feet storm surge.
The LMS Committee is aware of the changes to the Saffir Simpson Scale and that the depth or severity of a
storm surge does not always correspond to the category of the hurricane.
A look at the lists of deadliest and costliest hurricanes reveals several striking facts:
•
•
•
•
•
Fourteen out of the fifteen deadliest hurricanes were category 3 or higher.
Large death totals were primarily a result of the 10 feet or greater rise of the ocean (storm surge)
associated with many of these major hurricanes.
A large portion of the damage in four of the twenty costliest tropical cyclones resulted from inland
floods caused by torrential rain.
One-third of the deadliest hurricanes were category four or higher.
Only six of the deadliest hurricanes occurred during the past 25 years in contrast to three-quarters
of the costliest hurricanes (this drops to sixty percent after adjustment for inflation and about one-
63
quarter after adjustment for inflation, population, and personal wealth)
Source: THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES
TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2006, NOAA/NWS/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida
Table 4.7 – Hurricane and Tropical Storm Occurrences in
Suwannee County (1950 – 2010)
Location or
County
Date
Time
Type
Mag
Dth Inj PrD
CrD
1 Palmetto
08/16/1994
0800
Tropical Storm
N/A
0
1
50.0M
0
2 FLZ014>031 - 06/05/1995
034>036 - 039 040 - 042 - 043 048>052
0900
Tropical Storm
N/A
0
0
0.9M
25K
3 FLZ020>025 030>033 035>038 - 040
09/04/2004
09:00 PM Tropical Storm
N/A
4
0
0
0
4 FLZ020>025 030>033 035>038 - 040
09/25/2004
N/A
1
0
0
0
5 FLZ020>025 030>033 035>038 - 040
06/13/2006
06:00 AM Tropical Storm
N/A
0
0
0
0
6 FLZ020>025 030 - 032>033 035>038 - 040
08/21/2008
N/A
0
0
0K
0K
Source: NOAA: http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms
Key Code:
Mag: Magnitude
Dth: Deaths
Inj: Injuries
PdD: Property Damage
CrD: Crop Damage
Event details
Per the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), for the past 60 years, there were six recorded
hurricane and tropical storm events that had some affect on Suwannee County. Specific event details on
property or crop damage on the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms for the County was not available.
64
Figure 4.5 – Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that passed within
65 miles of Suwannee County (1960-2008)
Source: http://csc-s-figures-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html
There have been 24 tropical cyclone events between 1960 and 2008 where the eye of the storm
has passed within 65 miles of Suwannee County. That is roughly one tropical cyclone event every three
years that may impact the county in some way.
Suwannee County has been fortunate in that it has been many years since a powerful tropical
cyclone directly impacted the county, causing significant damage. The only storm that has caused
significant widespread damage in Suwannee County was the Unnamed Storm of 1935. The storm events
identified in Figure 4.5 impact on Suwannee County have generally caused only minor wind damage in
terms of fallen trees and limbs and minor structural damage in isolated cases. The tropical cyclone events
impacting Suwannee County also cause prolonged heavy rains that have caused minor isolated flooding
adjacent to wetlands and low-lying areas, as well as on poorly drained rural dirt roads.
The impacts from tropical cyclones have been broken down into wind and storm surge effects,
while also incorporating flood zone data. In order to identify geographical areas at risk from tropical
cyclones, historical storms (past 153 years for tropical cyclones) were simulated using The Arbiter of
Storms (TAOS) model, version 10.2. Wind, wave, rainfall, and storm surge perils were computed, and
resultant hazard zones were created. In order to estimate people and structures at risk from tropical
cyclones, flood zone and wind layers were created, and tables were created based on percent damage
expected from wind and rain components. Additionally, FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Figure (FIRM) data
was ingested, and the tabular data sets were run for comparison.
Figures 4.6 through 4.10 shows the geographic areas that may be impacted by winds from various
categories of storms. The following figures include unincorporated Suwannee County and the town of
Branford.
All five figures are from: http://lmsmaps.kinanco.com/lmsmaps/
Figure 4.6 - Category 1 Wind Speeds
65
66
The important thing to note with the tropical cyclone wind impact figures is that the darker red
colors correlate to higher speed wind impacts, probably due to topography variations. The highest wind
speed areas are generally the same on each figure, although the maximum estimated wind speeds vary by
the storm strength.
There are two components to tropical cyclone impacts: wind and storm surge. The wind impacts
have been discussed and graphically depicted for Suwannee County using the TAOS model.
Consequently, figures and associated data are not provided for the storm surge (water) impacts from
tropical cyclones.
Suwannee Countywide will not get a direct hit from any category of tropical cyclone because it is
an inland county, and winds generally diminish as storms move further inland. The TAOS model indicates
that Suwannee County could still experience damaging winds from a tropical cyclone. The area that would
67
be impacted by the most severe winds is a wide north-south corridor down the center of the county. There
is also a large area in the east part of the county that is particularly vulnerable to wind damage from tropical
cyclones. The entire county, however, is subject to some degree of high winds resulting from a tropical
cyclone.
Vulnerability for Suwannee Countywide
The vulnerability assessment table’s 4.Hurr1 – 4.Hurr5 reflect the types of buildings or structures,
the different winds, flood data, the total dollar exposure, the dollar loss and percent loss for all five
categories of hurricanes.
This data is for Suwannee Countywide, however, specific jurisdiction structure and loss figures are
recorded in the potential loss tables (4.8 – 4.12 ) at the end of this hazard description.
68
Table 4.Hurr1 – Hurricane, Category 1 Vulnerability Assessment
Types of Buildings/Land
Use
TS Wind
Hur Wind
Ext Wind
Flooded
Exposure
Loss
Single Family
Mobile Homes
Multi-Family –
5128
4181
1051
609
608
127
0
0
0
0
0
0
$1.04 BI
$409.10 MI
$65.63 MI
$10.32 MI
$22.76 MI
$656.64
TH
Commercial -
671
74
0
0
$271.40 MI
$3.04 MI
1.1%
Agriculture -
6144
910
0
0
$418.26 MI
$4.43 MI
1.1%
Government/Institutional
696
122
0
0
$1.63 BI
$17.05 MI
1.0%
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
County Emergency Operations Center
Other Government and Institutional
Buildings
Public Schools (not critical facilities)
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
Percent
Loss
1.0%
5.6%
1.0%
69
Use
TS Wind
Hur Wind
Ext Wind
Flooded
Exposure
Loss
Single Family
Mobile Homes
Multi-Family –
5128
4181
1051
5113
4161
1048
0
0
0
0
0
0
$1.04 BI
$409.10 MI
$65.63 MI
$36.87 MI
$62.32 MI
$2.36 MI
Percent
Loss
3.6%
15.2%
3.6%
Commercial -
671
666
0
0
$271.40 MI
$10.69 MI
3.9%
Agriculture -
6144
6106
0
0
$418.26 MI
$15.72 MI
3.8%
696
694
0
0
$1.63 BI
$60.13 MI
3.7%
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Buildings
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
70
Use
TS Wind
Hur Wind
Ext Wind
Flooded
Exposure
Loss
Single Family
Mobile Homes
5128
4181
5128
4181
64
113
0
0
$1.04 BI
$409.10 MI
Multi-Family –
1051
1051
20
0
$65.63 MI
$95.70 MI
$139.74
MI
$6.07 MI
Commercial -
671
671
14
0
$271.40 MI
$27.32 MI
10.1%
Agriculture -
6144
6144
205
0
$418.26 MI
$41.05 MI
9.8%
696
696
29
0
$1.63 BI
$155.61
MI
9.5%
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Buildings
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
Percent
Loss
9.2%
34.2%
9.2%
71
Use
TS Wind
Hur Wind
Ext Wind
Flooded
Exposure
Loss
Single Family
5128
5128
4709
1
$1.04 BI
Mobile Homes
4181
4181
3838
0
$409.10 MI
Multi-Family –
1051
1051
991
1
$65.63 MI
$233.83
MI
$303.18
MI
$14.59 MI
Commercial -
671
671
632
0
$271.40 MI
$66.01 MI
24.3%
Agriculture -
6144
6144
5715
0
$418.26 MI
$99.40 MI
23.8%
696
696
668
0
$1.63 BI
$377.97
MI
23.1%
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Buildings
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
Percent
Loss
22.5%
74.1%
22.2%
72
Use
Hur Wind
Ext Wind
Flooded
Exposure
Loss
Single Family
TS
Wind
5128
5128
5127
1
$1.04 BI
Mobile Homes
4181
4181
4181
0
$409.10 MI
Multi-Family –
1051
1051
1051
1
$65.63 MI
$433.11
MI
$403.63
MI
$27.20 MI
Commercial -
671
671
671
0
$271.40 MI
$123.87
MI
45.6%
Agriculture -
6144
6144
6144
0
$418.26 MI
$183.47
MI
43.9%
Government/Institutional -
696
696
696
0
$1.63 BI
$701.09
MI
42.9%
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Buildings
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
Percent
Loss
41.7%
98.7%
41.4%
73
Probability: Suwannee County is in a location that has been previously impacted by many tropical
storms or cyclones. Based on past occurrences, a significant storm is likely to impact Suwannee County
about every three years, generating damaging winds. The probability of a hurricane occurrence is medium
(at least 1 occurrence every 3 years).
Extent: In a quantitative measurement, these hazards are considered a high risk for the county.
The Committee determined that hurricanes could cause severe damage and extent for the county in
reference to single family homes, mobile homes, manufacture homes, commercial and government
buildings and agriculture (especially in unincorporated Suwannee County). See the tables below 4.8 to 4.12
for estimated potential loss figures.
Based on historical data, the worse case scenario for Suwannee County would be a Category 5
hurricane. As recent as July 2005, Hurricane Dennis, a Category 3 hurricane had rainfall totals ranged from
6 to 10 inches in the Florida Big Bend area. Within the past ten years, Suwannee County has had six
tropical storms and three hurricanes all of which have had property damage to the county.
Source: The data in the following table(s) are from MEMPHIS for Categories 1 - 5
Potential Losses for Hurricanes (Categories 1-5)
(Countywide, Unincorporated Suwannee, City of Live Oak and the Town of Branford)
Table 4.8 - Potential Losses Category 1 Hurricanes
(A) Countywide for Category 1
Impact Summary
Peak winds 77.mph, peak water depth 0.0ft.
Category 1 MaximaDamage Summary:
Tax Parcel based Wind Damage: $58.26 Million
DOR based Flood Damage: $0.00 dollars
DOR Structures in Flood Zone: 0
Census based Wind Damage: $72.54 Million
Census based Flood Damage: $0.00 Dollars
Uninhabitable Housing Units: 96 (0.6% of total HU)
Table 4.8.1 Countywide Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Total
34844
5283
5889
17499
TS Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
Hur Wind
5276
1034
1278
2646
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
74
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
6325
0
2043
6325
0
2043
1128
0
352
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.2 Countywide Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
TS Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Hur Wind
609
608
127
74
910
122
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.3 Countywide Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Exposure
$ 1.04 Billion
$ 409.10 Million
$ 65.63 Million
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 271.40 Million
$ 418.26 Million
$ 1.63 Billion
Loss
$ 10.32 Million
$ 22.76 Million
$ 656.64
Thousand
$ 3.04 Million
$ 4.43 Million
$ 17.05 Million
Percent Loss
1.0%
5.6%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
(B) Unincorporated for Category 1
Impact Summary
Table 4.8.4 Unincorporated County Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Total
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
TS Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
Hur Wind
4230
442
1072
2059
819
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
75
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
0
1300
0
1300
0
245
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.5 Unincorporated County Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
TS Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Hur Wind
477
572
117
52
897
95
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.6 Unincorporated County Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
Exposure
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 722.75 Million
$ 389.35 Million
$ 47.08 Million
$ 145.71 Million
$ 180.66 Million
$ 1.59 Billion
Loss
$ 7.23 Million
$ 21.69 Million
$ 501.87 Thousand
$ 1.81 Million
$ 2.00 Million
$ 16.66 Million
Percent
Loss
1.0%
5.6%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
(C ) Live Oak for Category 1
Impact Summary
DOR based Flood Damage: $0.00 Dollars
Table 4.8.7 Live Oak Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Total
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
TS Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
Hur Wind
1046
592
206
587
309
0
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
76
Sing Pnt
687
687
107
0
0
Table 4.8.8 Live Oak Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
1703
281
181
365
181
248
TS Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Hur Wind
132
36
8
22
13
26
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.9 Live Oak Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
Exposure
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 286.24 Million
$ 16.87 Million
$ 16.19 Million
$ 112.32 Million
$ 229.32 Million
$ 35.88 Million
Loss
$ 2.84 Million
$ 920.85 Thousand
$ 130.20 Thousand
$ 1.13 Million
$ 2.36 Million
$ 351.78 Thousand
Percent
Loss
1.0%
5.5%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
(D ) Branford for Category 1
Impact Summary
Tax Parcel based Wind Damage: $662.12 Thousand
Census based Wind Damage: $674.54 Thousand
Table 4.8.10 Branford Population at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Total
Total
Minority
Over 65
691
94
121
TS Wind
691
94
121
Hur Wind
0
0
0
Ext Wind
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
77
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
469
145
0
56
469
145
0
56
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.11 Branford Structures at risk for Category 1 Maxima
Total
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
TS Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
200
29
14
49
15
41
Hur Wind
0
0
1
0
0
1
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.8.12 Branford Loss by DOR Use for Category 1 Maxima
Exposure
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 28.81 Million
$ 2.98 Million
$ 2.35 Million
$ 13.37 Million
$ 8.28 Million
$ 4.41 Million
Loss
$ 256.06 Thousand
$ 152.34 Thousand
$ 24.45 Thousand
$ 113.29 Thousand
$ 74.76 Thousand
$ 41.23 Thousand
Percent
Loss
0.9%
5.1%
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
Table 4.9 Potential Losses Category 2 Hurricanes
Impact Summary
78
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
TS Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Hur Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
TS Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Hur Wind
5113
4161
1048
666
6106
694
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 1.04 Billion
$ 409.10 Million
$ 65.63 Million
$ 271.40 Million
$ 418.26 Million
$ 1.63 Billion
Loss
$ 36.87 Million
$ 62.32 Million
$ 2.36 Million
$ 10.69 Million
$ 15.72 Million
$ 60.13 Million
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
3.6%
15.2%
3.6%
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
79
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
TS Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Hur Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
TS Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Hur Wind
3212
3852
852
253
5910
406
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Exposure
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 722.75 Million
$ 389.35 Million
$ 47.08 Million
$ 145.71 Million
$ 180.66 Million
$ 1.59 Billion
Loss
$ 25.78 Million
$ 59.39 Million
$ 1.79 Million
$ 6.27 Million
$ 7.10 Million
$ 58.72 Million
(C ) Live Oak for Category 2
Impact Summary
Percent
Loss
3.6%
15.3%
3.8%
4.3%
3.9%
3.7%
80
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
TS Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Hur Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
1703
281
181
365
181
248
TS Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Hur Wind
1703
281
181
364
181
247
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Exposure
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 286.24 Million
$ 16.87 Million
$ 16.19 Million
$ 112.32 Million
$ 229.32 Million
$ 35.88 Million
Loss
$ 10.09 Million
$ 2.50 Million
$ 489.24 Thousand
$ 3.98 Million
$ 8.33 Million
$ 1.23 Million
(D ) Branford for Category 2
Impact Summary
Percent
Loss
3.5%
14.8%
3.0%
3.5%
3.6%
3.4%
81
Total
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
TS Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Hur Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
TS Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
200
29
14
49
15
41
Hur Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
Exposure
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
$ 28.81 Million
$ 2.98 Million
$ 2.35 Million
$ 13.37 Million
$ 8.28 Million
$ 4.41 Million
Loss
$ 1.00 Million
$ 441.99 Thousand
$ 80.74 Thousand
$ 440.48 Thousand
$ 287.21 Thousand
$ 169.63 Thousand
Percent
Loss
3.5%
14.8%
3.4%
3.3%
3.5%
3.9%
Impact Summary
Peak winds 114 mph, peak water depth 0.0ft.
82
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
TS Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Hur Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
TS Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Hur Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Ext Wind
64
113
20
14
205
29
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 1.04 Billion
$ 409.10 Million
$ 65.63 Million
$ 271.40 Million
$ 418.26 Million
$ 1.63 Billion
Loss
$ 95.70 Million
$ 139.74 Million
$ 6.07 Million
$ 27.32 Million
$ 41.05 Million
$ 155.61 Million
DOR based Flood Damage: $0 00 dollars
Percent Loss
9.2%
34.2%
9.2%
10.1%
9.8%
9.5%
83
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
TS Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Hur Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
TS Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Hur Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Ext Wind
64
113
20
14
205
29
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 722.75 Million
$ 389.35 Million
$ 47.08 Million
$ 145.71 Million
$ 180.66 Million
$ 1.59 Billion
Loss
$ 66.98 Million
$ 133.17 Million
$ 4.58 Million
$ 15.52 Million
$ 18.81 Million
$ 151.89 Million
(C) Live Oak for Category 3
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
9.3%
34.2%
9.7%
10.7%
10.4%
9.5%
84
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
TS Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Hur Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
1703
281
181
365
181
248
TS Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Hur Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 286.24 Million
$ 16.87 Million
$ 16.19 Million
$ 112.32 Million
$ 229.32 Million
$ 35.88 Million
Loss
$ 26.22 Million
$ 5.62 Million
$ 1.28 Million
$ 10.66 Million
$ 21.48 Million
$ 3.31 Million
(D) Branford for Category 3
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
9.2%
33.3%
7.9%
9.5%
9.4%
9.2%
85
Total
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
TS Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Hur Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
TS Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
200
29
14
49
15
41
Hur Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
Ext Wind
0
0
0
0
0
0
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 28.81 Million
$ 2.98 Million
$ 2.35 Million
$ 13.37 Million
$ 8.28 Million
$ 4.41 Million
Loss
$ 2.51 Million
$ 968.16 Thousand
$ 213.99 Thousand
$ 1.14 Million
$ 751.69 Thousand
$ 401.04 Thousand
Percent Loss
8.7%
32.5%
9.1%
8.6%
9.1%
9.1%
Table 4.11 Potential Losses Category 4 Hurricane
Impact Summary
Tax Parcel based Wind Damage: $1.09 Billion
DOR based Flood Damage: $115.81 Thousand
Census based Wind Damage: $1.13 Billion
86
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
TS Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Hur Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Ext Wind
33892
5076
5799
17290
6109
0
1964
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
TS Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Hur Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Ext Wind
4709
3838
991
632
5715
668
Flooded
1
0
1
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 1.04 Billion
$ 409.10 Million
$ 65.63 Million
$ 271.40 Million
$ 418.26 Million
$ 1.63 Billion
Loss
$ 233.83 Million
$ 303.18 Million
$ 14.59 Million
$ 66.01 Million
$ 99.40 Million
$ 377.97 Million
Percent Loss
22.5%
74.1%
22.2%
24.3%
23.8%
23.1%
87
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
TS Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Hur Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Ext Wind
26643
2162
4511
13461
4479
0
1221
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
TS Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Hur Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Ext Wind
2894
3542
800
228
5527
387
Flooded
1
0
1
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 722.75 Million
$ 389.35 Million
$ 47.08 Million
$ 145.71 Million
$ 180.66 Million
$ 1.59 Billion
Loss
$ 163.23 Million
$ 288.66 Million
$ 10.88 Million
$ 37.51 Million
$ 44.50 Million
$ 368.99 Million
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
22.6%
74.1%
23.1%
25.7%
24.6%
23.2%
88
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
TS Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Hur Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Ext Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
1703
281
181
365
181
248
TS Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Hur Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Ext Wind
1626
270
178
356
173
243
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 286.24 Million
$ 16.87 Million
$ 16.19 Million
$ 112.32 Million
$ 229.32 Million
$ 35.88 Million
Loss
$ 64.39 Million
$ 12.42 Million
$ 3.18 Million
$ 25.63 Million
$ 53.04 Million
$ 8.00 Million
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
22.5%
73.6%
19.7%
22.8%
23.1%
22.3%
89
Total
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
TS Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Hur Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Ext Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
TS Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
200
29
14
49
15
41
Hur Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
Ext Wind
189
26
12
48
15
38
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 28.81 Million
$ 2.98 Million
$ 2.35 Million
$ 13.37 Million
$ 8.28 Million
$ 4.41 Million
Loss
$ 6.26 Million
$ 2.14 Million
$ 528.35 Thousand
$ 2.87 Million
$ 1.86 Million
$ 974.35 Thousand
Percent Loss
21.7%
71.9%
22.5%
21.4%
22.5%
22.1%
Impact Summary
90
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
TS Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Hur Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Ext Wind
34844
5283
5889
17499
6325
0
2043
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
TS Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Hur Wind
5128
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Ext Wind
5127
4181
1051
671
6144
696
Flooded
1
0
1
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 1.04 Billion
$ 409.10 Million
$ 65.63 Million
$ 271.40 Million
$ 418.26 Million
$ 1.63 Billion
Loss
$ 433.11 Million
$ 403.63 Million
$ 27.20 Million
$ 123.87 Million
$ 183.47 Million
$ 701.09 Million
Percent Loss
41.7%
98.7%
41.4%
45.6%
43.9%
42.9%
91
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
TS Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Hur Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Ext Wind
27595
2369
4601
13670
4695
0
1300
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
TS Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Hur Wind
3227
3872
855
257
5948
407
Ext Wind
3226
3872
855
257
5948
407
Flooded
1
0
1
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 722.75 Million
$ 389.35 Million
$ 47.08 Million
$ 145.71 Million
$ 180.66 Million
$ 1.59 Billion
Loss
$ 301.90 Million
$ 384.05 Million
$ 20.23 Million
$ 70.87 Million
$ 80.85 Million
$ 684.46 Million
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
41.8%
98.6%
43.0%
48.6%
44.8%
42.9%
92
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
Total
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
TS Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Hur Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Ext Wind
6558
2820
1167
3360
1485
0
687
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Total
1703
281
181
365
181
248
TS Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Hur Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Ext Wind
1703
281
181
365
181
248
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 286.24 Million
$ 16.87 Million
$ 16.19 Million
$ 112.32 Million
$ 229.32 Million
$ 35.88 Million
Loss
$ 119.67 Million
$ 16.74 Million
$ 5.90 Million
$ 47.92 Million
$ 99.32 Million
$ 14.83 Million
Impact Summary
Percent Loss
41.8%
99.2%
36.5%
42.7%
43.3%
41.3%
93
Total
Total
Minority
Over 65
Disabled
Poverty
Lang Iso
Sing Pnt
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
TS Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Hur Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Ext Wind
691
94
121
469
145
0
56
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
200
29
14
49
15
41
TS Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
Hur Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
Ext Wind
200
29
14
49
15
41
Flooded
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF Res
Mob Home
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Gov/Instit
Exposure
$ 28.81 Million
$ 2.98 Million
$ 2.35 Million
$ 13.37 Million
$ 8.28 Million
$ 4.41 Million
Loss
$ 11.63 Million
$ 2.92 Million
$ 1.06 Million
$ 5.08 Million
$ 3.30 Million
$ 1.80 Million
Percent Loss
40.4%
97.9%
45.2%
38.0%
39.9%
40.9%
Source: MEMPHIS
Tornado
Tornadoes are nature’s most violent storms. Spawned from powerful thunderstorms, tornadoes can
cause fatalities and devastate a neighborhood in seconds. A tornado appears as a rotating, funnel-shaped
cloud that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground with whirling winds that can reach 300 miles per
hour. Damage paths can be in excess of one mile wide and 50 miles long. Every state is at some risk from
this hazard. Some tornadoes are clearly visible, while rain or nearby low-hanging clouds obscure others.
94
Occasionally, tornadoes develop so rapidly that little, if any, advance warning is possible. Before a tornado
hits, the wind may die down and the air may become very still. A cloud of debris can mark the location of a
tornado even if a funnel is not visible. Tornadoes generally occur near the trailing edge of a thunderstorm. It
is not uncommon to see clear, sunlit skies behind a tornado.
Figure 4.11 – Tornado Map
Source: http://www.tornadochaser.net/images/frequency.gif
The following are facts about tornadoes:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
They may strike quickly, with little or no warning.
They may appear nearly transparent until dust and debris are picked up or a cloud forms in the
funnel.
The average tornado moves Southwest to Northeast, but tornadoes have been known to move in
any direction.
The average forward speed of a tornado is 30 MPH, but may vary from stationary to 70 MPH.
Tornadoes can accompany tropical storms and hurricanes as they move onto land.
Waterspouts are tornadoes that form over water.
Tornadoes are most frequently reported east of the Rocky Mountains during spring and summer
months.
Peak tornado season in the southern states is March through May; in the northern states, it is late
spring through early summer.
Tornadoes are most likely to occur between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m., but can occur at any time.
Source: FEMA http://www.fema.gov/hazard/tornado/index.shtm
The most common, least destructive tornadoes are warm weather tornadoes that occur between
95
May and August. Cool season tornadoes are the most destructive, occurring between December and April.
Suwannee County is extremely vulnerable to these wind disasters due to a high concentration of the
population residing in manufactured or mobile homes. A tornado or a series of tornadoes could affect
twenty (20) percent of the population if it should occur in a highly populated area. Damage has occurred
from tornadoes in the county.
Possible consequences of tornadoes include: power outages, infrastructure damage (road/culvert
washout), erosion, property damage/loss from wind, water and fires, fresh water flooding, evacuations
(day/night, road congestion), agricultural damage/loss, economic loss, and debris.
In order to assess tornado probability and vulnerability, tornado track data since 1950 from the
National Weather Service was analyzed to determine the annual probability that a tornado would cause
damage to a structure in each 90m grid cell in the county. The data was stratified into four annual
probability classes: High risk (1 in 100 or greater), Medium risk (1 in 101 to 1 in 200), low (1 in 250 to 1 in
500 chance), or very low (1 in 501 or greater chance).
Table 4.13 -Fujita Tornado Damage Scale
Scale
F0
Wind Estimate
<73
Typical Damage
Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; branches broken off trees; shallowrooted trees pushed over; signboards damaged.
F1
73 – 112
Moderate damage. Peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off
foundations or overturned; moving autos blown off roads.
F2
113 – 157
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes
demolished; boxcars overturned; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object
missiles generated; cars lifted off ground.
F3
158 – 206
Severe damage. Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains
overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off the ground and
thrown.
F4
207 – 260
Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak
foundations blown away some distance; cars thrown and large missiles
generated.
F5
261 - 318
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept
away; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters
(109 yds); trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur.
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f-scale.html
96
Table 4.14 - Tornado occurrences in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Location or
County
Date
Time
1 Houston
07/09/2005
2 Live Oak
Typ
Mag
Dth
Inj
PrD
CrD
09:40 PM Tornado
F0
0
0
0
0
07/10/2005
04:40 PM Tornado
F0
0
0
0
0
3 Wellborn
03/02/2007
04:00 AM Tornado
F0
0
0
10K
0K
4 Wellborn
03/07/2008
09:30 AM Tornado
F0
0
0
0K
0K
5 Live Oak
Suwane Arpt
04/28/2008
13:25 PM Tornado
F0
0
0
0K
0K
6 Ellaville
03/31/2009
19:45 PM Tornado
F1
0
0
0.8M
0K
Key Code:
Mag: Magnitude
Dth: Deaths
Inj: Injuries
CrD: Crop Damage
Event record details with significant property damage
1. 3/31/2009 – Tornado - The tornado touched down as an EF-0 in an open field just east of the Suwannee
River and south of the Progress Energy power plant. It increased to intensity becoming a low end EF-1
tornado several hundred feet down track where it impacted several farm buildings and mobile homes.
Several small farm structures were destroyed and winds here we estimated to be between 86 and 90 mph.
The tornado continued moving northeastward as an EF-0 snapping trees along its path near the entrance
to the Suwannee River State Park and along Stagecoach Road. It then went through a wooded area
emerging along West Tower Road where it began the occlusion process. The rear flank downdraft heavily
damaged two chicken houses with a loss of about a quarter million dollars. At this point the tornado took a
northward turn toward the Jenkins Farm house destroying a large work shed with heavy machinery and
damaging the home. The tornado was rated as an EF-1 here with winds of 95 to 100 mph. Debris from the
shed was strewn across the field north of the Jenkins Farm house to Stagecoach Road.
The six reported tornado occurrences in Suwannee County are spread throughout the county.
There are no particular areas where tornados are more likely than others. This hazard is applicable to all
jurisdictions.
97
Probability: Suwannee County is in a location that has been previously impacted by relatively few
tornados. Due to volatile tropical weather conditions between May and September, however, there is
always a possibility that tornadoes could form in association with tropical thunderstorms that occur almost
daily during these months. The probability of tornado occurrence in the county is medium risk (at least 1
occurrence every 3 years).
Vulnerability: Even though the probability of tornado occurrence is medium, the damage to people
and property could be high and the economic costs could be high. The entire County is particularly
vulnerable to tornados because of the presence of a high number of mobile homes as a percentage of the
housing inventory. Mobile homes are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of tornados because of their
construction. The vulnerability for Suwannee Countywide to the impacts of a tornado is high.
The vulnerability assessment table 4.Torn reflect the types of buildings or structures at risk, and
the value of the structures at risk. There were recorded figures for two zones (low – 1 in 500) and medium
(1 -250).
recorded in the potential loss tables at the end of this hazard description.
98
Table 4.Torn– TORNADO Vulnerability Assessment
Single Family
Mobile Homes
Multi-Family –
Countywide Structures at Risk/Value
of Structures at Risk
Zone – Low
Zone – Medium
(1 in 500)
(1 in 250)
83/ $14.51 MI
5045/ $1.02 BI
115/ $10.46 MI
4066/ $398.65 MI
39/ $387.19 TH
1012/ $65.25 MI
Commercial -
3/ $670.04 TH
668/ $270.73 MI
Agriculture -
12/ $4.64 MI
684/ $416.20 MI
204/ $60.48 MI
5940/ $1.57 BI
Types of Buildings/Land Use
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Other Government and Institutional Buildings
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
99
Extent for Suwannee Countywide: This hazard is considered a medium to high risk countywide.
The Committee determined that tornadoes and high winds could be a severe extent risk in reference to
damage to structures see tables 4.15.
Based on historical data for tornadoes for the last 60 years, the highest magnitude recorded by the
NCDC was a F2 tornado on June 10, 1954; September 24, 1956; June 15, 1965; December 21, 1972; and
February 6, 1975 all identified in Suwannee County. And on September 29, 1998 an F2 tornado occurred in
Live Oak with five injuries and over $600,000 in damage.
On March 31, 2009, there was an F1 tornado that occurred in Ellaville with over $800,000 in
damage. However, on March 13, 1993, the “Storm of the Century” occurred with tornadoes, thunderstorm
winds, and hail damage resulting in property damage of $1.6 billion dollars for numerous counties in
Florida. Property damage figures specifically for Suwannee County was not available. In addition, the
magnitude reading for the tornadoes were not identified.
From the available magnitude data, the Committee determined that a F2 tornado would be the
worst-case scenario.
Table 4.15 Potential Losses Tornadoes
(Countywide, Unincorporated Suwannee, City of Live Oak and Town of Branford)
Table 4.15.1 Countywide Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Low (1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50))
Total
3316
31528
0
0
Minority
100
5183
0
0
Over 65
1041
4848
0
0
Disabled
1672
15827
0
0
Poverty
455
5870
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
174
1869
0
0
Table 4.15.2 Countywide Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
MF
Res
39
1012
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
456
17415
SF Res Mob
Home
83
115
5045
4066
Low (1 in 500)
Medium (1 in
250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in
50))
3
668
12
684
204
5940
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
Table 4.15.3 Countywide Value of Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
Low (1 in 500)
$ 91.14 MI
Medium (1 in
250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in
50)
$ 3.75 BI
$ 14.51
MI
$ 1.02 BI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Mob
Home
$ 10.46
MI
$ 398.65
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
MF Res
$ 387.19
TH
$ 65.25 MI
$ 670.04 TH
$ 4.64 MI
$ 270.73 MI
$ 416.20 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 60.48
MI
$ 1.57 BI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Table 4.15.4 Unincorporated County Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Low (1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50)
Total
3316
24279
0
0
Minority
100
2269
0
0
Over 65
1041
3560
0
0
Disabled
1672
11998
0
0
Poverty
455
4240
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
174
1126
0
0
Table 4.15.5 Unincorporated County Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
Low (1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50))
456
14110
0
0
SF
Res
83
3144
0
0
Mob
Home
115
3757
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
39
816
0
0
3
254
0
0
12
395
0
0
204
5744
0
0
Table 4.15.6 Unincorporated County Value of Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
Low (1 in 500)
$ 88.56 MI
Medium (1 in
250)
$ 2.99 BI
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in
50)
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
SF Res
Mob
Home
$ 14.51 MI $ 10.46
MI
$ 708.24 MI $
378.89
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
MF Res
$ 387.19
TH
$ 46.70 MI
$ 670.04 TH
$ 2.06 MI
$ 145.04 MI
$ 178.61 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 60.48
MI
$ 1.53 BI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
101
Table 4.15.7 Live Oak Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Low ( 1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50)
Total
0
6558
0
0
Minority
0
2820
0
0
Over 65
0
1167
0
0
Disabled
0
3360
0
0
Poverty
0
1485
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
687
0
0
Table 4.15.8 Live Oak Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
Low ( 1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50)
0
2959
0
0
SF
Res
0
1703
0
0
Mob
Home
0
281
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
181
0
0
0
365
0
0
0
248
0
0
0
181
0
0
Table 4.15.9 Live Oak Value of Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
Low ( 1 in 500)
Medium (1 in
250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in
50)
$0.00
$696.82 MI
$0.00
$286.24 MI
Mob
Home
$0.00
$16.87 MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
MF
Res
$0.00
$16.19
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$112.32 MI
$0.00
$229.32 MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Gov/
Instit
$0.00
$35.88
MI
$0.00
$0.00
Table 4.15.10 Branford Population at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Low ( 1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50)
Total
0
691
0
0
Minority
0
94
0
0
Over 65
0
121
0
0
Disabled
0
469
0
0
Poverty
0
145
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
56
0
0
102
Table 4.15.11 Branford Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
Low ( 1 in 500)
Medium (1 in 250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in 50)
0
348
0
0
SF
Res
0
200
0
0
Mob
Home
0
29
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
14
0
0
0
49
0
0
0
41
0
0
0
15
0
0
Table 4.15.12 Branford Value of Structures at risk for KAC Tornado Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
Low ( 1 in 500)
Medium (1 in
250)
High (1 in 100)
Very High (1 in
50)
$0.00
$60.18 MI
$0.00
$28.81 MI
Mob
Home
$0.00
$2.98 MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
MF
Res
$0.00
$2.35
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$13.37 MI
$0.00
$8.28 MI
Gov/
Instit
$0.00
$4.41 MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Source: Memphis
Thunderstorms/Lightning
Severe thunderstorms occur in all seasons of the year. Many of the storms are accompanied by
high wind, hail, flooding and dangerous lightning. Thunderstorms and lightning occur mostly in the months
of May through October. The storms have the potential of causing power outages and destruction or
damage to buildings and can result in loss of life.
Florida is the nation's leader in lightning injuries and fatalities. Between 1959 and 2007, there
were 449 lightning-related deaths and 1788 lightning-related injuries in Florida (NOAA Technical
Memorandum NWS SR-193). Thunderstorms can affect a large portion of the county's population. Minor
damage occurs from thunderstorms each year.
The following are facts about lightning:
• Lightning’s unpredictability increases the risk to individuals and property.
• Lightning often strikes outside of heavy rain and may occur as far as 10 miles away from any
rainfall.
• “Heat lightning” is actually lightning from a thunderstorm too far away for thunder to be heard.
However, the storm may be moving in your direction!
• Most lightning deaths and injuries occur when people are caught outdoors in the summer months
during the afternoon and evening.
103
•
•
Your chances of being struck by lightning are estimated to be 1 in 600,000, but could be reduced
even further by following safety precautions.
Lightning strike victims carry no electrical charge and should be attended to immediately.
Table 4.16 – Lightning Occurrences in Suwannee County (1950 – 2010)
Location or
County
1 Live Oak
2 Live Oak
Date
Time
Type
05/28/1996
03/07/2008
07:20 PM Lightning
09:55 AM Lightning
Mag
Dth Inj
PrD
CrD
N/A
N/A
0
0
250K
1K
0
0K
0
0
Key Code:
Mag: Magnitude
Dth: Deaths
Inj: Injuries
CrD: Crop Damage
Event details with property damage
1. 5/28/1996 – Lightning -Lightning struck the St. Luke's Episcopal Church steeple at around 8:20 PM EDT,
traveled into the electrical system, set fire to the organ and spread to the surrounding area in the foyer.
Lightning Can Strike Twice
Cloud-to-ground lightning bolts are a common phenomenon—about 100 strike Earth’s surface
every single second—yet their power is extraordinary. Each bolt can contain up to one billion volts of
electricity.
This enormous electrical discharge is caused by an imbalance between positive and negative
charges. During a storm, colliding particles of rain, ice, or snow increase this imbalance and often
negatively charge the lower reaches of storm clouds. Objects on the ground, like steeples, trees, and the
Earth itself, become positively charged—creating an imbalance that nature seeks to remedy by passing
current between the two charges.
A step-like series of negative charges, called a stepped leader, works its way incrementally
downward from the bottom of a storm cloud toward the Earth. Each of these segments is about 150 feet (46
meters) long. When the lowermost step comes within 150 feet (46 meters) of a positively charged object it
is met by a climbing surge of positive electricity, called a streamer, which can rise up through a building, a
104
tree, or even a person. The process forms a channel through which electricity is transferred as lightning.
Some types of lightning, including the most common types, never leave the clouds but travel
between differently charged areas within or between clouds. Other rare forms can be sparked by extreme
forest fires, volcanic eruptions, and snowstorms. Ball lightning, a small, charged sphere that floats, glows,
and bounces along oblivious to the laws of gravity or physics, still puzzles scientists.
Lightning is extremely hot—a flash can heat the air around it to temperatures five times hotter than
the sun’s surface. This heat causes surrounding air to rapidly expand and vibrate, which creates the
pealing thunder we hear a short time after seeing a lightning flash.
Lightning is not only spectacular, it’s dangerous. About 2,000 people are killed worldwide by
lightning each year. Hundreds more survive strikes but suffer from a variety of lasting symptoms, including
memory loss, dizziness, weakness, numbness, and other life-altering ailments.
Source: National Geographic - http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/lightning-profile.htm
From 1950 to April 2010, there have been 120 thunderstorms documented in Suwannee County,
and there are many more that have not been documented. Table 4.17 shows the report thunderstorms/high
winds recorded in the past five years in Suwannee County.
Facts About Thunderstorms - FEMA
•
•
•
•
•
They may occur singly, in clusters, or in lines.
Some of the most severe occur when a single thunderstorm affects one location for an extended
time.
Thunderstorms typically produce heavy rain for a brief period, anywhere from 30 minutes to an
hour.
Warm, humid conditions are highly favorable for thunderstorm development.
About 10 percent of thunderstorms are classified as severe—one that produces hail at least threequarters of an inch in diameter, has winds of 58 miles per hour or higher, or produces a tornado.
Source: FEMA - http://www.fema.gov/hazard/thunderstorm/index.shtm
Table 4.17 - Thunderstorm Occurrences
in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Location or Date
County
1 Hildreth
06/16/2005
2 Suwannee 04/08/2006
Spgs
Time
Type
02:30 PM Tstm Wind
06:45 PM Tstm Wind
Mag
Dth
Inj
PrD
CrD
50 kts.
50 kts.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
105
3 Obrien
4 Live Oak
5 Live Oak
6 Dowling
Park
7 Live Oak
8 Ellaville
05/28/2006
06/22/2006
07/27/2006
08/04/2006
05:15 PM
01:55 PM
09:30 PM
04:00 PM
08/04/2006
10/27/2006
9 Branford
10/27/2006
10 Live Oak
12/25/2006
11 Live Oak
03/02/2007
12 Houston
03/02/2007
13
Lancaster
14 Branford
03/02/2007
06/25/2007
15 Falmouth 07/13/2007
16 Live Oak
07/28/2007
17 Live Oak 08/25/2007
Suwane
Arpt
18 Falmouth 02/26/2008
19 Obrien
02/26/2008
20 Branford
03/07/2008
21 Live Oak
03/07/2008
22 Obrien
03/07/2008
23 Wellborn
04/05/2008
24 Wellborn
04/05/2008
25 Branford
06/12/2008
26 Branford
06/12/2008
Tstm Wind
Tstm Wind
Tstm Wind
Tstm Wind
50 kts.
45 kts.
50 kts.
50 kts.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2K
0
0
0
0
0
0
04:20 PM Tstm Wind
20:45 PM Thunderstorm
Wind
Wind
07:43 AM Thunderstorm
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
50 kts.
50 kts.
0
0
0
0
0
5K
0
0K
50 kts.
0
0
5K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
10K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
52 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
52 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
52 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
52 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
52 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
106
27 Branford
06/26/2008
28 Live Oak
06/28/2008
29 Rixsford
07/22/2008
30 Live Oak
08/13/2008
31 Ellaville
02/19/2009
32 Falmouth 02/19/2009
33 Live Oak
02/19/2009
34 Obrien
05/17/2009
35 Obrien
06/17/2009
36 Obrien
06/18/2009
37 Live Oak
Suwane
Arpt
38 Live Oak
07/09/2009
39 Padlock
12/02/2009
40 Live Oak
12/25/2009
41 Hildreth
01/21/2010
42 Wellborn
01/21/2010
43 Branford
04/30/2010
44 Branford
04/30/2010
08/19/2009
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
52 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
Wind
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
45 kts.
0
0
2K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
50 kts.
0
0
0K
0K
61 kts.
0
0
68K
0K
61 kts.
0
0
2K
0K
Key Code:
Mag: Magnitude
Dth: Deaths
107
Inj: Injuries
CrD: Crop Damage
Event Record Details with the highest magnitude and property damage
1. 4/30/2010 – Thunderstorm Wind - An approximate seven square mile area of straight-line wind damage
occurred as a result of a bowing line of thunderstorms. The area of most substantial damage had dozens of
large trees uprooted and snapped. A total of 18 structures sustained damage with one mobile home
destroyed by a large oak tree that fell through it. Damage indicators suggested maximum winds of around
70 mph. The cost of damage was estimated.
There is no effective way of predicting the future probability of thunderstorm or lightning occurrence
because they can strike at any time and impact any part of the county with equal probability. The probability
and vulnerability is the same for all parts of county, including the Town of Branford. Previous occurrence
records are the only factor that can be used to estimate future thunderstorm occurrence probability.
Figure 4.12 Thunderstorms and Hail Risks
Source: http://lmsfigures.kinanco.com/lmsfigures/final_cty/067/windp_067/index.html
Suwannee County, including its municipalities, has been impacted by many thunderstorms in the
past.. There are many documented cases of thunderstorms impacting the county, but there are also many
more cases that are not documented or reported. During the months of May through October,
thunderstorms may impact some portion of the county almost daily.
Severe thunderstorms, causing damage to people and property, may occur less frequently, but are
still far more likely to occur in the county than any other hazard. The expected impacts of thunderstorms
are primarily lightning strikes and wind damage, and consequently, fallen trees.
Due to the unpredictability of thunderstorms, there are no specific areas of the county that are
108
more vulnerable to thunderstorms and lightning than others. It is not possible to determine where in the
county a thunderstorm is going to strike. All people and structures are equally vulnerable to the impacts of
a severe thunderstorm throughout the county, therefore, this hazard is applicable to all jurisdictions.
Probability: Suwannee County is in a location that has been previously impacted by a high number
of documented thunderstorms, including lightning. Based on past occurrences, the probability of
thunderstorm and lightning occurrence in Suwannee Countywide is high (at least 1 occurrence every year).
Vulnerability: Thunderstorms occur frequently and have the potential to impact a large land area
with damaging wind, lightning, and rainfall. Consequently, the vulnerability of Suwannee County at the
Town of Branford is high.
The vulnerability assessment table 4.Thunder reflect the types of buildings or structures at risk,
and the value of the structures at risk. There were recorded figures for one zone high risk (1 n 100 or
greater).
Table 4.Thunder – Thunderstorm Vulnerability Assessment
Types of Buildings/Land Use
Single Family
Mobile Homes
Multi-Family –
Zone – High
5128/ $1.04 BI
4181/ $409.10 MI
1051/ $65.63 MI
Commercial -
671/ $271.40 MI
Agriculture -
696/ $418.26 MI
6144/ $1.63 BI
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Other Government and Institutional Buildings
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
109
110
Extent for Suwannee Countywide: This hazard is considered a medium to high risk countywide.
The Committee determined that thunderstorms and high winds would be a moderate extent risk in
reference to damage to structures see tables 4.18. Based on historical data for thunderstorms and high
winds for the last 60 years, the highest magnitude (recorded data available per the NCDC) was 80 kts. on
December 7, 1996 in Bradford. The Committee determined that a magnitude of 80 kts. would be the worstcase scenario.
Table 4.18 Potential Losses for Thunderstorm and Hail Risk
(Countywide, Unincorporated Suwannee, Live Oak and Branford)
Table 4.18.1 Countywide Population at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
Total
0
34844
0
0
0
Minority
0
5283
0
0
0
Over 65
0
5889
0
0
0
Disabled
0
17499
0
0
0
Poverty
0
6325
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
2043
0
0
0
Table 4.18.2 Countywide Structures at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
0
17871
0
0
0
SF
Res
0
5128
0
0
0
Mob
Home
0
4181
0
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
1051
0
0
0
0
671
0
0
0
0
696
0
0
0
0
6144
0
0
0
Table 4.18.3 Countywide Value of Structures by DOR Use for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
V. High (25)
High (50)
$ 0.00
$ 3.84 BI
$ 0.00
$ 1.04 BI
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
Mob
Home
$ 0.00
$ 409.10
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
MF
Res
$ 0.00
$ 65.63
MI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 271.40 MI
$ 0.00
$ 418.26 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 0.00
$ 1.63 BI
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
111
Table 4.18.4 Unincorporated County Population at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
Total
0
27595
0
0
0
Minority
0
2369
0
0
0
Over 65
0
4601
0
0
0
Disabled
0
13670
0
0
0
Poverty
0
4695
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
1300
0
0
0
Table 4.18.5 Unincorporated County Structures
at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
0
14566
0
0
0
SF
Res
0
3227
0
0
0
Mob
Home
0
3872
0
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
855
0
0
0
0
257
0
0
0
0
407
0
0
0
0
5948
0
0
0
Table 4.18.6 Unincorporated County Value of Structures
by DOR Use for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
V. High (25)
High (50)
$0.00
$3.08 BI
$0.00
$722.75 MI
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Mob
Home
$0.00
$385.35
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
MF
Res
$0.00
$47.08
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$145.71 MI
$0.00
$180.66 MI
Gov/
Instit
$0.00
$1.59 BI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Table 4.18.7 Live Oak Population at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
Total
0
6558
0
0
0
Minority
0
2820
0
0
0
Over 65
0
1167
0
0
0
Disabled
0
3360
0
0
0
Poverty
0
1485
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
687
0
0
0
112
Table 4.18.8 Live Oak Structures at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
0
2959
0
0
0
SF
Res
0
1703
0
0
0
Mob
Home
0
281
0
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
181
0
0
0
0
365
0
0
0
0
248
0
0
0
0
181
0
0
0
Table 4.18.9 Live Oak Value of Structures by DOR Use
for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
V. High (25)
High (50)
$0.00
$696.82 MI
$0.00
$286.24 MI
Mob
Home
$0.00
$16.87 MI
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
MF
Res
$0.00
$16.19
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$112.32 MI
$0.00
$229.32 MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Gov/
Instit
$0.00
$35.88
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Table 4.18.10 Bradford Population at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
Total
0
691
0
0
0
Minority
0
94
0
0
0
Over 65
0
121
0
0
0
Disabled
0
469
0
0
0
Poverty
0
145
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
56
0
0
0
Table 4.18.11 Bradford Structures at risk for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
V. High (25)
High (50)
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
0
348
0
0
0
SF
Res
0
200
0
0
0
Mob
Home
0
29
0
0
0
MF Res
Commercial
Agriculture
Government
0
14
0
0
0
0
49
0
0
0
0
41
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
113
Table 4.18.12 Bradford Value of Structures by DOR Use
for KAC Thunderstorm Damage Risk
Zone
Total
SF Res
V. High (25)
High (50)
$0.00
$60.18 MI
$0.00
$28.81 MI
Mob
Home
$0.00
$2.98 MI
Medium (100)
Low (200)
V. Low (500)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
MF
Res
$0.00
$2.35
MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$13.37 MI
$0.00
$8.28 MI
Gov/
Instit
$0.00
$4.41 MI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Hailstorms
Hail is precipitation in the form of lumps of ice produced by convective clouds. Hail typically
accompanies thunderstorms. Because hail needs convective clouds and strong updrafts to increase in
size, hail storms are more frequent in warmer months (spring and early summer) when these conditions are
present.
Hail can damage aircraft, homes and cars, and can be deadly to livestock and people. One of the
people killed during the March 28, 2000 tornado in Fort Worth was killed when struck by grapefruit-size hail.
While Florida has the most thunderstorms, New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming usually have the
most hail storms. Why? The freezing level in the Florida thunderstorms is so high, the hail often melts
before reaching the ground.
Source:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tstorms/hail.htm
Figure 4.13 – Hailstorm Map
114
Hail Scale
(The information regarding the scale and tables 4HAIL and 4HAIL2 are from The Tornado & Storm Research
Organisation)
The scale extends from H0 to H10 with its increments of intensity or damage potential related to
hail size (distribution and maximum), texture, numbers, fall speed, speed of storm translation, and
strength of the accompanying wind. The characteristic damage associated with each increment in
Britain is listed in the table but may need to be modified for other countries to reflect differences in
building materials and types; e.g. whether roofing tiles are predominantly slate, shingle or concrete.
An indication of equivalent hail kinetic energy ranges (in joules per square metre) has now been
added to the first six increments on the scale, and this may be derived from radar reflectivities or
from hail pads. The International Hailstorm Intensity Scale recognizes that hail size alone is
insufficient to accurately categorize the intensity and damage potential of a hailstorm, especially
towards the lower end of the scale.
For example, without additional information, an event in which hail of up to walnut size is reported
(hail size code 3: hail diameter of 21-30 mm) would be graded as a hailstorm with a minimum
intensity of H2-3. Additional information, such as the ground wind speed or the nature of the
damage the hail caused, would help to clarify the intensity of the event. For example, a fall of
walnut-sized hail with little or no wind may scar fruit and sever the stems of crops but would not
break vertical glass and so would be ranked H2-3. However, if accompanied by strong winds, the
same hail may smash many windows in a house and dent the bodywork of a car, and so be graded
an intensity as high as H5.
However, evidence indicates that maximum hailstone size is the most important parameter relating
to structural damage, especially towards the more severe end of the scale. It must be noted that
hailstone shapes are also an important feature, especially as the "effective" diameter of nonspheroidal specimens should ideally be an average of the co-ordinates.
The TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale (H0 to H10) in relation to typical damage and hail size
codes. See table 4.19.
Table 4.19 - Torro Hailstorm Intensity Scale
Intensity Category
H0
H1
Typical Hail
Diameter
(mm) **
5
5 - 15
Probable
Kinetic Energy,
J-m2
0 – 20
> 20
Typical Damage Impacts
10 - 20
20 - 30
> 100
> 300
> 500
> 800
Significant damage to fruit, crops, vegetation
Severe damage to fruit and crops, damage to glass and
plastic structures, paint and wood scored
Widespread glass damage, vehicle bodywork damage
Wholesale destruction of glass, damage to tiled roofs,
significant risk of injuries
Bodywork of grounded aircraft dented, brick wall pitted
H2
H3
Hard Hail
Potentially
Damaging
Significant
Severe
H4
H5
Severe
Destructive
25 – 40
30 – 50
H6
Destructive
40 – 60
No damage
Slight general damage to plants, crops
115
H7
H8
H9
Destructive
Destructive
Super Hailstorms
50 - 75
60 – 90
75 – 100
H10
Super Hailstorms
> 100
Severe roof damage, risk of serious injuries
Severe damage to aircraft bodywork
Extensive structural damage. Risk of severe or even fatal
injuries to persons caught in the open
Extensive structural damage. Risk of severe or even fatal
injuries to persons caught in the open
** Approximate range (typical maximum size in bold), since other factors (e.g. number and density of
hailstones, hail fall speed and surface wind speeds) affect severity.
Table 4.20 - Hail size and diameter in relation to
Torro Hailstorm Intensity Scale
Size code
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Maximum Diameter mm
5 -9
10 – 15
16 – 20
21 – 30
31 – 40
41 – 50
51 – 60
61 – 75
76 – 90
91 – 100
> 100
Description
Pea
Mothball
Marble, grape
Walnut
Pigeon’s egg > squash ball
Golf ball > Pullet’s egg
Hen’s egg
Tennis ball > cricket ball
Large orange > Soft ball
Grapefruit
Melon
The size code is the maximum reported size code accepted as consistent with other reports and
evidence.
Source: http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hscale.php
There was one recorded hail storm in Branford in the last five years (2005 – 2009). The data is
from the National Climatic Data Center. There were no property or crop damages reported in this hail
storm.
Table 4.21 - Hail Storms Occurrences in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Location
1 Dowling Park
2 Dowling Park
3 Live Oak
4 Live Oak
5 Live Oak
6 Live Oak
7 Live Oak
8 Live Oak
9 Live Oak
10 Mc Alpin
Date
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
03/25/2005
Time
03:10 AM
03:10 AM
03:15 AM
03:15 AM
03:25 AM
03:30 AM
03:45 AM
07:05 AM
09:00 AM
09:00 AM
Type
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Mag
1.75 in.
1.75 in.
0.88 in.
1.25 in.
1.75 in.
2.75 in.
2.75 in.
1.75 in.
1.75 in.
0.88 in.
Dth
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Inj
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PrD
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CrD
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
116
11 Live Oak
12 Suwannee
Spgs
13 Dowling
Park
14 Live Oak
15 Live Oak
16 Wellborn
17 Mc Alpin
18 Live Oak
19 Lancaster
20 Branford
21 Live Oak
22 Mc Alpin
03/31/2005
02/03/2006
05:10 PM
06:00 PM
Hail
Hail
0.75 in.
0.75 in.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
02/03/2006
07:37 PM
Hail
1.00 in.
0
0
0
0
02/03/2006
02/03/2006
05/15/2006
07/27/2006
05/05/2007
03/07/2008
06/09/2008
06/18/2008
05/16/2009
07:40 PM
07:49 PM
12:20 PM
08:00 PM
15:40 PM
09:18 AM
20:40 PM
14:25 PM
16:30 PM
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
Hail
0.75 in.
0.88 in.
0.75 in.
0.75 in.
1.00 in.
0.75 in.
0.75 in.
0.88 in.
0.75 in.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0K
0K
0K
0K
0K
0
0
0
0
0K
0K
0K
0K
0K
Source: www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms
Key Code:
Mag: Magnitude
Dth: Deaths
Inj: Injuries
CrD: Crop Damage
Event record details with the highest magnitude
1. 3/25/2005 – Hailstorm - Baseball size hail reported near Pine Grove.
Analysis of the hail storms: If we take the recorded measurements on the last five years for hail
storms in Suwannee County, the conversion of inches in mm; the results would be 2.75 inches = 69.85 mm.
This would be a category H7 to H8, destructive hailstorm with a typical damage impact (severe roof
damage, risk of serious injuries to severe damage to aircraft bodywork).
Probability: Suwannee County is in a location that has been previously impacted by hailstorms.
This hazard is applicable to all jurisdictions. Based on past occurrences, the probability of a hailstorms
within the past five years would be considered a high risk (at least 1 occurrence every year).
Vulnerability: See table’s 4.Thunder and 4.18 (1 -12), which reflects the types of buildings or
structures at risk and the value of the structures for hail.
The data is for Suwannee Countywide, however, specific jurisdiction structure and loss figures are
recorded the potential loss tables at the end of the thunderstorm and lightning hazard description.
Extent for Suwannee Countywide: This hazard is considered a medium risk countywide. The
Committee determined that hailstorms could be a moderate extent risk in reference to damage to structures
see tables 4.18 (1- 12). Based on historical data for hailstorms for the last 60 years, the highest magnitude
117
(recorded data available) was 2.75 inches in March 2005 in Suwannee County. The Committee determined
that a magnitude of 2.75 inches would be the worst-case scenario.
Riverin e Ero sion
Erosion is the removal of surface material from and the subsequent transportation of the eroded
materials by natural agencies from the point of removal. Erosion is generally caused by wind action, river
and stream processes (waves), and rainfall sheet flow. The complementary actions of erosion and
deposition or sedimentation operate through wind and moving water to alter existing landforms and create
new landforms.
Moving water is the most likely natural agent of erosion. Erosion by rivers is caused by the
scouring action of the sediment-containing flowing water. Human intervention, as by the removal of natural
vegetation for farming or grazing purposes, can lead to or accelerate erosion by wind and water.
Riverine erosion can occur in the County as a result of floods and heavy rain. The County is
bounded to the north, west and south by the Suwannee River. Numerous smaller rivers and streams are
located within the County. There is no known incidents of significant riverine erosion events along the rivers
in the unincorporated county, but given the high number of river miles that border the county, there is
potential for adverse impacts from riverine erosion. All land bordering the county by the Suwannee River is
considered to be vulnerable to riverine erosion.
Probability: The probability of riverine erosion is medium (at least 1 occurrence every 3 years).
Vulnerability/Extent: Riverine erosion can occur in the County as a result of floods and heavy rain.
Due to the number of thunderstorms and heavy rains over the past five years, and the significant floods that
the County has experienced, the quantitative measurement for riverine erosion hazard is considered a
medium risk to the county.
The Suwannee River Water Management District states … “Loss of soils due to riverine erosion
under paved roads, bridge abutments and approaches, bridge pilings and other structural pilings, can
cause structural failures that endanger public safety. Washouts of boat ramps can restrict access for
emergency personnel. Riverine erosion can increase the debris flow of trees and structures like docks that
can pile up against structures in the floodway, increasing stresses on the pilings and possibly contributing
to failures. An extreme example would be a log jam of trees and other debris against a bridge.”
The worst-case scenario for riverine erosion would occur during a flood, “greater losses in size
than 3 feet.” In addition, road washout erosion could occur during both the rising and falling of floods, and
the extent could be approximately three feet.
118
Wildfire
A wildfire is any uncontrolled fire in combustible vegetation that occurs in the countryside or a
wilderness area. Other names such as brush fire, bushfire, forest fire, grass fire, hill fire, peat fire,
vegetation fire, veldfire and wildland fire may be used to describe the same phenomenon depending on the
type of vegetation being burned. A wildfire differs from other fires by its extensive size, the speed at which it
can spread out from its original source, its potential to change direction unexpectedly, and its ability to jump
gaps such as roads, rivers and fire breaks. Wildfires are characterized in terms of the cause of ignition,
their physical properties such as speed of propagation, the combustible material present, and the effect of
weather on the fire.
Florida’s ecosystems are dependent on natural fire. These low intensity fires re-nourish soil, thin
abundant vegetation, and provide proper conditions for reproduction and forage. However, since the early
1950’s when Floridians actively began to suppress all fires to protect newly planted forest areas and keep
newly built dwellings safe, vegetative fuel has become dense and thick. Natural fires have given way to
dangerous wildfires, which often damage rather than benefit natural surroundings. Every year in Florida,
an average of 5,000 wildfires burn nearly 200,000 acres and affect residential and commercial areas over
85% of the time.
The growing number of people relocating to Florida adds to the wildfire problem. About 1,000
people move to Florida each day. Additionally, Floridians who are tired of big-city life are moving to rural
areas to “get back to nature”. Many of them choose to live in areas where natural vegetation meets homes
and communities. These areas are called the Wildland-Urban Interface. Many of these new residents are
unaware of the natural role of fire in Florida and therefore are unprepared.
Wildland-Urban Interface fires are fast moving fires that often require many pieces of fire fighting
equipment, and suppression is a difficult and time-consuming operation. Wildfire suppression must also
take on the challenge of home protection during almost every fire that is detected. The cost of these
operations grows proportionally with their complexity.
Suwannee County encompasses 688 square miles. According to 2009 population estimates by the
Office of Economic and Demographic Research, 40,230 persons live in 15,994 households in Suwannee
County. This is a 15.9 % population increase since 2000, and reflects 15 persons per square mile. The
majority of this county is comprised of rural areas. These locations have the highest wildfire risk in the
county due to the agricultural land usage.
119
Table 4.22 Reported Wildfires in Suwannee County (2005 – 2009)
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total
Number of Fires
61
91
56
61
60
329
Number of Acres
317.3
387.6
251.7
256.5
263.9
1477
Source: Florida Division of Forestry website. http://tlhforweb03.doacs.state.fl.us/PublicReports/FiresByCause.aspx
According to the data provided by the Division of Forestry 52% of the fires during 2005 – 2009 were caused
by debris burning which was authorized (21%) and (31%) was unauthorized, lightning (4%); and unknown
sources (11%). The remaining 33% of the fires were caused by miscellaneous (14%); incendiary (3%);
equipment (11%); and (5%) was from camping, children or smoking.
Table 4.23 Consequences of Wildfire
Infrastructure
power outages
water/gas/communication
lines disrupted
road closures
roadway destruction
Environmental
erosion
wildlife destruction
Human
smoke inhalation
personal injury
Vegetative
crop damage
timber damage
Economic
business disruption
property loss
habitat loss
species endangered
human evacuation
animal evacuation
species endangered
invasive species
increased
economic loss
suppression cost
Risk Analysis:
Wildfires occur in Florida throughout the entire year. Typically, North Florida, including Suwannee
County, sees the greatest number of wildfires occurring during the months of April, May and June. During
the 20-year period from January 1, 1989 through December 31, 2008, Suwannee County saw a total of
1,762 wildfires that burned 9,484 acres. This is an average of 88 wildfires each year, burning an average of
474 acres per year. There were no singularly significant wildfire events in Suwannee County during the
period. The primary cause of wildfires in Suwannee County is “Escaped Debris Burning” (40%). Lightningcaused wildfires account for only 4% of the total fires in Suwannee County; the remaining 96% are humancaused.
120
Table 4.24 - Suwannee County Fires (1989 – 2008)
Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
20 Yr Total
20 Yr Average
Number of
Fires
181
110
90
76
70
41
73
138
83
99
127
127
101
64
55
58
61
91
56
61
1762
88
Acres Burned
1,027
832
799
607
453
211
497
820
369
247
739
461
375
346
309
179
317
388
252
256
9,484
474
Risk analysis for wildfires takes into account fuel types and density, fire history, and dwellings
within the area. These factors as well as others are combined in the Florida Fire Risk Analysis System
(FRAS) developed by the Florida Division of Forestry. FRAS displays maps depicting the greatest areas of
concern in Suwannee County. The FRAS Map for Suwannee County appears below.
The Level of Concern (LOC) is an integer scaled from 0 to 9 indicating the relative risk of Wildland
Fire, and is an output of the Florida Division of Forestry Fire Risk Assessment System (FRAS). The Level
of Concern Scale runs from low concern (1) to high concern (9). More information on FRAS and the LOC
value is available at:
http://www.fl-dof.com/wildfire/wf_pdfs/FRAS_User_Guide.pdf
This data set is courtesy of the Florida Division of Forestry, and comes with the following declaimer:
The user assumes the entire risk related to their use of the FRAS published maps. The Florida Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services is providing these data as is and disclaims any and all warranties, whether
expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for any particular
purpose. In no event will the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services be liable to you or to any third
121
party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any
use of misuse of this data.
Figure 4.14 – Suwannee County FRAS -Levels of Concern
Costs of Suppression:
As local and state budgets come under pressure, the cost of wildfire suppression becomes more
significant. As more homes are built in the Wildland-Urban Interface to keep pace with the growing
population, the need for home wildfire protection increases. As a result, the overall cost of wildland fire
suppression also increases. Table 4.25 details a representation of Division of Forestry wildfire suppression
costs. Each wildfire has its own particular cost structure, depending on size, duration and complexity.
Table 4.25 Cost of Wildfire Suppression
Equipment
Wildland Engine (Type 6)
Dozer/Plow (Type 2)
Fixed Wing Aircraft (Type 3)
Helicopter (Type 2)
Hourly Total
Hourly Grand Total
Hourly Rate
$ 48.00
$ 108.00
$ 110.00
$ 900.00
$ 1,166.00
$ 1,254.00
Personnel
Ranger
Ranger
Pilot
Pilot
Hourly Rate
$ 22.00
$ 22.00
$ 22.00
$ 22.00
$ 88.00
122
Even a small 10 – 20 acre wildfire can require a staffing compliment as listed above and take 4 – 5
hours to suppress. The cost estimates above do not include the cost borne by local fire services or those
responding as mutual aid to the wildfire.
Wildfire Mitigation Strategies:
Wildfire mitigation strategies fall into three major categories:
1. Fuel reduction activities in the Wildland-Urban Interface.
2. Activities to educate homeowners about wildfires and the need for vegetation management
programs such as prescribed fire.
3. Development and retrofit strategies incorporating Firewise construction and landscaping
techniques.
Fuel Reduction:
The Division of Forestry uses several methods for fuel reduction. The most efficient, most
economical and most effective method of fuel reduction is prescribed burning. Mechanical treatment of fuel
includes mowing, mastication and roller chopping.
Homeowner Education:
Firewise education and training is available to homeowners providing the knowledge they need to
prepare their homes to survive a wildfire. Firewise is a proactive program that has been shown to be very
effective. The basic Firewise message is that each homeowner has a personal responsibility to make sure
that their home is prepared to withstand a wildfire disaster, even if fire services cannot get to them.
Additional education about the benefits of prescribed fire is equally important to enable good land
management and fuel reduction activities to continue.
Firewise Development:
The Local Mitigation Strategy and the Suwannee County Comprehensive Plan should address
issues connected to wildfire activity, prevention and suppression. The following are items that Suwannee
County can consider when amending their local Land Development Codes or Comprehensive Plan:
In those geographic areas predominately shown on the DOF FRAS LOC as level 7, 8, and 9
(medium, high and extreme):
•
All new developments will comply with NFPA 1144 Standard for Reducing Structure
Ignition Hazards from Wildland Fire, 2008 Edition and NFPA Standard 1141 Standard for
Fire Protection Infrastructure for Land Development in Suburban and Rural Areas, 2008
Edition. The previous version of these standards, NFPA 299 Standard for Protection of Life
and Property from Wildfire 1997 Edition, was adopted by reference in the Florida Fire
Code effective January 1, 2001.
•
•
•
•
•
•
123
All new residential structures will comply with NFPA 1144 Standard for Reducing Structure
Ignition Hazards from Wildland Fire, 2008 Edition.
Developers wishing to obtain a permit to build in these high-risk areas should be required
to create a wildfire hazard mitigation plan that addresses at a minimum: access,
vegetation, building construction and fire protection.
Existing structures will be retrofitted to meet these Standards through the adoption of
appropriate language in the building codes. Permits for structure improvement or repair
should require adherence to these Standards.
Vacant properties should be maintained in accordance with acceptable fire prevention
practices. This would include the reduction of the density of highly flammable vegetative
fuels. Disincentives to the maintenance of such properties should be replaced with an
incentive system to facilitate the removal of high-risk vegetation.
County owned property should have an active, on-going management plan to help reduce
the liability for damage caused by wildfires coming off county owned properties.
The County should embark on a vigorous education program to help residents know and
understand the value and need for prescribed burning in these high-risk fire areas.
Source(s): NFPA 1141 Standard for Fire protection Infrastructure for Land Development in Suburban and Rural Areas,
2008 Edition Approved as an American National Standard June 24, 2007 National Fire Protection Assn.
NFPA 1144 Standard for Reducing Structure Ignition Hazards from Wildland Fire, 2008 Edition Approved as an
American National Standard June 24, 2007 National Fire Protection Assn.
www.dnrc.mt.gov/forestry/fire/Prevention/WUIguidelines.asp .
In addition, Suwannee County will consider as mitigation strategies:
•
•
•
Implement programs to increase public awareness of prescribed burning and require management
plans for conservation easements that address the reduction of wildfire fuels.
Participation in the Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPP) and the Firewise Community
USA recognition program to reduce risks within the Wildland-Urban Interface.
Issue notices of proximity to be recorded in the deed or rental agreement on all properties adjacent
to wildland areas where prescribed fire is commonly used as a land management technique.
Note: This hazard is applicable to all jurisdictions in Suwannee County.
Probability: The probability of wildfires occurrence in Suwannee Countywide is high (at least 1
occurrence every year) and could have a severe impact of the community
124
Vulnerability:
The types of structures, the value of the structures and the vulnerability to wildfires throughout the
County are listed in Table 4.Fire. The vulnerability data is based on nine zone levels.
The data is for Suwannee Countywide, however, specific jurisdiction structure and loss figures are
125
Table 4.Fire – Wildfire Vulnerability Assessment
Types of
Buildings/Land Use
Zone
Level 1
(low)
Countywide Structures at Risk/Value of Structures at Risk
Zone
Zone
Zone
Zone
Zone
Zone
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4 Level 5
Level 6 Level 7
(medium)
Single Family
23/
$5.18 MI
449/
$99.51 MI
1000/
$211.58 MI
425/ $81
MI
521/
$111.16 MI
Mobile Homes
312/
$55.56
MI
286/
$26.98
MI
646/
$84.99 MI
1163/
$143.63 MI
336/
$32.85 MI
330/
$47.27 MI
346/
$18.84 MI
242/
$22.39
MI
70/ $1.75
MI
Commercial -
106/
$2.12 MI
112/
$11.05 MI
119/
$28.03 MI
113/
$38.63
MI
Agriculture -
35/
$7.28 MI
62/
$11.60 MI
165/
$206.70 MI
Government/
Institutional
74/
$23.46
MI
776/
$218.90 MI
1046/
$273.51 MI
Multi-Family –
Retirement Homes
Nursing Homes
Retail Stores
Supermarkets
Office Buildings
Restaurants
Nightclubs
Bowling Alleys
Hotels, Motels
Gas Station
Convention Center
Timberland
Poultry
Dairies, Feed Lots
Livestock Pavilion
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
Center
facilities)
Utilities
Churches
Library
Post office
Zone
Level 8
Zone
Level 9
143/
$30.89
MI
172/
$17.94
MI
41/
$727.77
TH
312/
$55.56
MI
286/
$26.98
MI
106/
$2.12 MI
646/
$84.99
MI
330/
$47.27
MI
112/
$11.05
MI
1163/
$143.63 MI
66/
$30.63 MI
18/
$4.08 MI
35/
$7.28 MI
62/
$11.60
MI
165/
$206.70 MI
50/
$19.38
MI
52/
$80.20 MI
10/
$1.90 MI
74/
$23.46
MI
776/
$218.90
MI
1046/
$273.51 MI
303/
$73.93
MI
423/
$110.96 MI
264/
$66.06
MI
296/
$79.40
MI
226/
$59.38
MI
171/
$40.20 MI
82/
$2.24 MI
346/
$18.84 MI
119/
$28.03 MI
126
As populations’ increase and development continues to push into the rural wildland areas, it will be
necessary to take active steps to reduce the wildfire risk to Suwannee County residents. Through land
development regulations, vegetative fuel reduction, and on-going public education programs in high-risk
areas, the potential for loss of human life and property from wildfire can be greatly reduced.
Extent for Suwannee Countywide: This hazard is considered a high risk for the county. The
Division of Forestry reported that the largest wildfire in the county was approximately 300 acres with no
significant loss. Escaped Debris Burning is the greatest cause of wildfire, and lightning is the only natural
cause of which accounts for only 4% of the county’s fire. The remaining 96% were human caused.
The current climate phase is in La Niña. The potential forecast during the La Niña episodes could
set the stage for greater than normal wildfire activity in 2011. This potential could be compounded in areas
that are already abnormally dry or experiencing moderate drought. The Committee determined that
wildfires extent could be severe for the homes, structures and agriculture especially during this climate
phase. Based on the historical data from the Division of Forestry on the wildfires, the worse case scenario
would be a wildfire of approximately 300 acres.
Table 4.26 Potential Wildfire
(Countywide, Unincorporated Suwannee, Live Oak and Branford)
Table 4.26.1 Countywide Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
1731
5754
5158
4211
3120
0
1395
81
2529
Minority
55
755
889
699
118
0
587
0
1288
Over 65
249
735
867
742
974
0
168
14
426
Disabled
908
3025
2201
2084
1585
0
528
26
1306
Poverty
291
979
1031
680
442
0
325
0
737
Lang
Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing
Pnt
134
290
301
324
121
0
115
0
251
Table 4.26.2 Countywide Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Total
836
2375
3839
1203
1480
SF
Res
23
449
1000
425
521
Mob
Home
312
646
1163
242
336
MF
Res
286
330
346
70
82
Commercial
106
112
119
113
66
Agriculture
35
62
165
50
52
Gov/Instit
74
776
1046
303
423
127
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
648
1109
2152
3010
143
312
646
1163
172
286
330
346
41
106
112
119
18
35
62
165
10
74
776
1046
264
296
226
171
Table 4.26.3 Countywide Value of Structures by DOR Use for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1
(low)
Level 2
Total
$ 120.58 MI
SF Res
$ 5.18 MI
Mob
Home
$ 55.56 MI
MF Res
$ 26.98 MI
Com
mercial
$ 2.12 MI
Agricul
ture
$ 7.28 MI
$ 473.32 MI
$ 99.51 MI
$ 84.99 MI
$ 47.27 MI
$ 11.05 MI
$ 11.60 MI
Level 3
$ 882.29 MI
$ 211.58
MI
$ 143.63
MI
$ 18.84 MI
$ 28.03 MI
$ 206.70 MI
Level 4
$ 237.09 MI
$ 81.00 MI
$ 22.39 MI
$ 1.75 MI
$ 38.63 MI
$ 19.38 MI
Level 5
(medium)
$ 368.04 MI
$ 111.16
MI
$ 32.85 MI
$ 2.24 MI
$ 30.63 MI
$ 80.20 MI
Level 6
$ 121.59 MI
$ 30.89 MI
$ 17.94 MI
$ 727.77 TH
$ 4.08 MI
$ 1.90 MI
Level 7
$ 194.81 MI
$ 55.56 MI
$ 26.98 MI
$ 2.12 MI
$ 7.28 MI
$ 23.46 MI
Level 8
$ 433.18 MI
$ 84.99 MI
$ 47.27 MI
$ 11.05 MI
$ 11.60 MI
$ 218.90 MI
Level 9
(high)
$ 710.91 MI
$ 143.63
MI
$ 18.84 MI
$ 28.03 MI
$ 206.70 MI
$ 273.51 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 23.46
MI
$
218.90
MI
$
273.51
MI
$ 73.93
MI
$
110.96
MI
$ 66.06
MI
$ 79.40
MI
$ 59.38
MI
$ 40.20
MI
Table 4.26.4 Unincorporated County Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
1731
5754
3684
2152
3120
0
728
81
508
Minority
55
755
616
98
118
0
0
0
143
Over 65
249
735
445
390
974
0
139
14
91
Disabled
908
3025
1247
1081
1585
0
264
26
224
Poverty
291
979
760
356
442
0
120
0
84
Lang
Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing
Pnt
134
290
193
100
121
0
39
0
14
128
Table 4.26.5 Unincorporated County Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
685
2263
2993
776
1068
637
948
2069
2504
SF
Res
23
414
638
185
277
132
207
602
928
Mob
Home
207
602
928
213
295
172
273
323
296
MF
Res
273
323
296
54
65
41
99
102
46
Com
mercial
99
102
46
21
19
18
16
48
80
Agri
culture
16
48
80
17
25
10
67
774
1005
Gov/Instit
67
774
1005
286
387
264
286
220
149
Table 4.26.6 Unincorporated County Value of Structures by DOR Use for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Total
$ 97.95 MI
SF Res
$ 5.18 MI
Mob
Home
$ 40.65 MI
MF Res
$ 25.71 MI
Commercial
$ 2.06 MI
Agricul
ture
$ 3.21 MI
Level 2
$ 460.42 MI
$ 97.46 MI
$ 78.48 MI
$ 46.99 MI
$ 9.94 MI
$ 9.18 MI
Level 3
$ 638.75 MI
$ 150.08
MI
$ 103.26
MI
$ 17.11 MI
$ 6.17 MI
$ 97.39 MI
Level 4
$ 150.61 MI
$ 43.61 MI
$ 20.54 MI
$ 1.63 MI
$ 8.63 MI
$ 4.65 MI
Level 5
(medium)
$ 217.86 MI
$ 67.88 MI
$ 29.87 MI
$ 1.62 MI
$ 7.85 MI
$ 9.07 MI
Level 6
$ 119.69 MI
$ 28.99 MI
$ 17.94 MI
$ 727.77 TH
$ 4.08 MI
$ 1.90 MI
Level 7
$ 170.36 MI
$ 40.65 MI
$ 25.71 MI
$ 2.06 MI
$ 3.21 MI
$ 21.15 MI
Level 8
$ 421.47 MI
$ 78.48 MI
$ 46.99 MI
$ 9.94 MI
$ 9.18 MI
$ 218.37 MI
Level 9
(high)
$ 522.69 MI
$ 103.26
MI
$ 17.11 MI
$ 6.17 MI
$ 97.39 MI
$ 264.73 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 21.15
MI
$
218.37
MI
$
264.73
MI
$ 71.57
MI
$
101.57
MI
$ 66.06
MI
$ 77.58
MI
$ 58.50
MI
$ 34.01
MI
129
Table 4.26.7 Live Oak Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
0
0
783
2059
0
0
667
0
2021
Minority
0
0
179
601
0
0
587
0
1145
Over 65
0
0
301
352
0
0
29
0
335
Disabled
0
0
485
1003
0
0
264
0
1082
Poverty
0
0
126
324
0
0
205
0
653
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
0
52
224
0
0
76
0
237
Table 4.26.8 Live Oak Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
113
67
786
410
402
11
123
73
486
SF
Res
0
0
322
232
239
11
85
42
229
Mob
Home
85
42
229
27
40
0
8
6
49
MF
Res
8
6
49
16
16
0
5
5
68
Commercial
5
5
68
91
46
0
10
12
81
Agriculture
10
12
81
28
25
0
5
2
37
Gov/Instit
5
2
37
16
36
0
10
6
22
Table 4.26.9 Live Oak Value of Structures by DOR Use for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1
(low)
Level 2
Total
$ 16.21 MI
SF Res
$ 0.00
Mob Home
$ 12.09 MI
MF Res
$ 720.09 TH
Commercial
$ 35.09 TH
Agriculture
$ 2.22 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 1.15 MI
$ 8.55 MI
$ 0.00
$ 6.21 MI
$ 277.41 TH
$ 115.70 TH
$ 1.42 MI
Level 3
$ 54.62 MI
$ 39.56 MI
$ 1.72 MI
$ 18.03 MI
$ 108.69 MI
Level 4
Level 5
(medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
$ 230.91
MI
$ 83.86 MI
$ 148.27
MI
$ 1.90 MI
$ 18.03 MI
$ 9.42 MI
$ 525.93
TH
$ 8.30 MI
$ 36.17 MI
$ 42.44 MI
$ 1.65 MI
$ 2.84 MI
$ 126.38 TH
$ 613.59 TH
$ 29.21 MI
$ 22.22 MI
$ 14.39 MI
$ 70.77 MI
$ 2.32 MI
$ 9.39 MI
$ 1.90 MI
$ 12.09 MI
$ 6.21 MI
$ 0.00
$ 720.09 TH
$ 277.41 TH
$ 0.00
$ 35.09 TH
$ 115.70 TH
$ 0.00
$ 2.22 MI
$ 1.42 MI
$ 0.00
$ 1.15 MI
$ 525.93 TH
Level 9
(high)
$ 182.47
MI
$ 39.56 MI
$ 1.72 MI
$ 18.03 MI
$ 108.69 MI
$ 8.30 MI
$ 0.00
$ 1.82 MI
$ 874.92
TH
$ 6.18 MI
130
Table 4.26.10 Branford Population at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
0
0
691
0
0
0
0
0
0
Minority
0
0
94
0
0
0
0
0
0
Over 65
0
0
121
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disabled
0
0
469
0
0
0
0
0
0
Poverty
0
0
145
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lang Iso
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sing Pnt
0
0
56
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.26.11 Branford Structures at risk for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1 (low)
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5 (medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9 (high)
Total
38
45
63
17
9
0
38
10
21
SF
Res
0
35
42
8
5
0
20
2
7
Mob
Home
20
2
7
2
1
0
5
1
1
MF
Res
5
1
1
0
0
0
2
5
5
Commercial
2
5
5
1
1
0
9
2
4
Agriculture
9
2
4
5
2
0
2
0
4
Gov/Instit
2
0
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
Table 4.26.12 Branford Value of Structures by DOR Use for FDOF Fire Risk LOC
Zone
Level 1
(low)
Level 2
Level 3
Total
$ 6.01 MI
SF Res
$ 0.00
Mob Home
$ 2.82 MI
MF Res
$ 548.27 TH
Commercial
$ 32.21 TH
Agriculture
$ 1.45 MI
Gov/
Instit
$ 1.16 MI
$ 4.35 MI
$ 11.65 MI
$ 2.05 MI
$ 7.23 MI
$ 298.15 TH
$ 900.19 TH
$ 5.71 TH
$ 14.61 TH
$ 999.59 TH
$ 2.40 MI
$ 991.02 TH
$ 619.53 TH
Level 4
$ 2.61 MI
$ 1.22 MI
$ 201.40 TH
$ 0.00
$ 797.61 TH
$ 337.82 TH
Level 5
(medium)
Level 6
Level 7
Level 8
Level 9
(high)
$ 1.56 MI
$ 844.22 TH
$ 131.70 TH
$ 0.00
$ 228.28 TH
$ 355.35 TH
$ 0.00
$ 489.12
TH
$ 46.67
TH
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 6.01 MI
$ 2.29 MI
$ 4.43 MI
$ 0.00
$ 2.82 MI
$ 298.15 TH
$ 900.19 TH
$ 0.00
$ 548.27 TH
$ 5.71 TH
$ 14.61 TH
$ 0.00
$ 32.21 TH
$ 999.59 TH
$ 2.40 MI
$ 0.00
$ 1.45 MI
$ 991.02 TH
$ 619.53 TH
$ 0.00
$ 1.16 MI
$ 0.00
$ 489.12 TH
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
$ 0.00
131
Dam or L evee F ailu re
Suwannee County does not have any large dams or levees associated with rivers in the area.
Therefore, this hazard will not be fully profiled.
Vulnerability/Probability/Extent: Given that Suwannee County does not have any large dams or
levees, the vulnerability, probability, and extent does not apply.
Drought/Heat W ave
Temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region
and last for several weeks are defined as extreme heat. Humid or muggy conditions, which add to the
discomfort of high temperatures, occur when a "dome" of high atmospheric pressure traps hazy, damp air
near the ground.
Table 4.27 – Heat Wave (Extreme Temperature)
in Suwannee County (1950 – 2010)
Location or
County
1 SUWANNEE
Date
Time
Type
Mag
Dth
Inj
PrD
CrD
08/15/1995
0000
Heat
N/A
1
0
0
0
Key Code:
Mag: Magnitude
Dth: Deaths
Inj: Injuries
CrD: Crop Damage
Event detail
1. 8/15/1995 – A Suwannee County man died, apparent victim of heat stroke. Afternoon temperatures in
reached 103 degrees.
Excessively dry and hot conditions can provoke dust storms and low visibility. Droughts occur
when a long period passes without substantial rainfall. A heat wave combined with a drought is a very
dangerous situation.
In 2005 and in 2009 (data available was only recorded through October 2009) there was no
recorded drought data for Suwannee County for those specific years - 2005 and 2009.
132
Droughts did occur in Suwannee County in 2006; 2007; and 2008.
The drought data was derived from the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI) is an indicator of the relative dryness or wetness effecting water sensitive
economies. The PDSI indicates the prolonged and abnormal moisture deficiency or excess. This indicator
is of general conditions and not local variations caused by isolated rain. Calculation of the PDSI is made for
350 climatic divisions in the United States and Puerto Rico. Input to the calculations include the weekly
precipitation total and average temperature, division constants (water capacity of the soil, etc.) and
previous history of the indices.
The PDSI is an important climatological tool for evaluating the scope, severity, and frequency of
prolonged periods of abnormally dry or wet weather. It can be used to help delineate disaster areas and
indicate the availability of irrigation water supplies, reservoir levels, range conditions, amount of stock
water, and potential intensity of forest fires.
The equation for the index was empirically derived from the monthly temperature and precipitation
scenarios of 13 instances of extreme drought in western Kansas and central Iowa and by assigning an
index value of -4 for these cases. Conversely, a +4 represents extremely wet conditions. From these
values, 7 categories of wet and dry conditions are defined (Table 4.28). The index is a sum of the current
moisture anomaly and a portion of the previous index to include the effect of the duration of the drought or
wet spell. The moisture anomaly is the product of a climate weighting factor and the moisture departure.
The weighting factor allows the index to have a reasonably comparable local significance in space and
time. A value for a division in Florida would have the same local implication as a similar value in a more
arid division in western Kansas. The moisture departure is the difference of water supply and demand.
Supply is precipitation and stored soil moisture and demand is the potential evapotranspiration, the amount
needed to recharge the soil, and runoff needed to keep the rivers, lakes, and reservoirs at a normal level.
Table 4.28 – Index Values (Drought to Moist)
Index Values – Drought to Moist
-4. 0 or less
Extreme Drought
-3.0 or -3.9
Severe Drought
-2.0 or -2.9
Moderate Drought
-1.9 or +1.9
Near Normal
+2.0 or +2.9
Unusual Moist
+3.0 or +3.9
Very Moist
+4.0 or above
Extremely Moist
Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/palmer_drought/wpdanote.shtml
The Palmer drought severity index data for Suwannee County on years (2005 – 2009) are as follows:
(2005)
In 2005 the drought index fluctuated between near normal (-1.9 to +1.9) to very moist range (+3.0 to 3.9);
there was no drought recorded in 2005.
133
(2006)
In 2006 the drought index fluctuated between near normal (-1.9 to 1.9) to extreme drought range (-4.0 – or
less).
There was a recorded period of time in 2006 ( May, June, July, September, October and November and
one week in December) with moderate to severe drought. In (November one week and December three
weeks) had extreme drought. Some normal data occurred in the months of (May and June).
(2007)
In 2007 the drought index fluctuated between near normal (-1.9 to +1.9) to extreme drought range (-4.0 or
less). There was a recorded period of time in 2007 (January, February, March, April, May, June, July,
August, September, October and November) with moderate to extreme drought. Some normal data
occurred in the months of (February, August and December).
(2008)
In 2008 the drought index fluctuated between unusual moist (+2.0 to 2.9) to moderate drought (-2.0 to -2.9).
Throughout most of the year the drought index was in the normal range. In (May and June) had some
moderate drought, however, normal data also occurred during those months. In August two of the weeks
had unusual moist.
(2009)
In 2009 the drought index fluctuated between near normal (-1.9 to 1.9) to unusual moist range (+2.0 to 2.9).
The data was only available until mid-October 2009. All of the data recorded was in the normal range for
the months (January – October). In (May and June) were the only months with the unusual moist range for
one week.
Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer/2005/2009
Figure 4.15 – Drought Map
Source: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/archive.html
The County rarely experiences substantial depth drops in the water table beneath it minimizing
residential damage.
134
According to the National Drought Mitigation Center:
The Status of State Drought Plans
Because water shortfalls are initially local and regional issues, and because of the lack of a
cohesive U.S. water policy, states have emerged as important innovators in devising ways to
reduce long-term vulnerability to drought. As of October 2006, the State of Florida is currently in
the process of developing a formal drought plan. Research has shown that the frequency of
drought in a state does not necessarily explain how committed a state is to drought planning. The
occurrence of drought since 1996 has led to a rapid increase in drought planning in the southwest,
south central, and southeast.
Figure 4.16 Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
Source: http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/4km_main.html
The direct physical effects of drought in Suwannee County typically include poor crops and foliage,
increased fire danger, less water in the soil, streams and reservoirs, and less water available for livestock
and wildlife. These lead to indirect effects such as reduced farm income and reduced revenues for vendors
and retailers who serve agricultural producers. G Ham Suwannee County would experience particularly
damaging impacts from droughts due to the importance of the agricultural industry in the county.
The impact to Suwannee County, therefore, would be focused on its agricultural base. A large part
of the County supports agriculture operations, making Suwannee County particularly vulnerable to drought
conditions. Due to constant changes in crop choices in the county, a figure was not created that would
show the types of crops grown in Suwannee County or their economic impacts.
In 2001, however, Florida experienced its worst drought in 100 years, causing crop and pasture
damage costs of approximately $574 million. Suwannee County felt some of the impact of this drought.
The estimated damage cost figures directly for the county was not available.
135
Long-term impacts of drought include reduced supplies of potable water for domestic use. All of
the residents in the unincorporated areas of the county get their water from private individual wells, making
all residents dependent on rainfall for their residential water use.
Suwannee County has experienced mainly seasonal droughts over the past ten years. There have
been several periods of two to three months in recent years when rainfall levels are well below normal,
leading to short periods with drought conditions. One period of drought conditions will typically occur once
per year. Generally, drought conditions have not lasted for prolonged periods because of heavy tropical
rains that typically last from June through September of each year.
In 1998 and 2000, there was a U.S. Department of Agriculture Disaster Declaration for most of the
State of Florida, including Suwannee County. Recently Florida has entered into a second year of drought
conditions, as statewide average rainfall deficits during 2006-07 are the largest observed since the mid
1950s. According to the National Drought Monitor, approximately 20% of Florida is experiencing severe to
extreme drought conditions as of January 1st, 2008.
Suwannee County monitors the drought index using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) that
is updated each day by the Florida Division of Forestry. KBDI is a good indicator of the drought/moisture
conditions for agricultural purposes, and it also provides a planning tool for the risks of wildfire. This index
provides a numerical scale of 1 through 800, with 800 being the driest and 1 being wettest.
Suwannee County is in a location that has been previously impacted by drought. This hazard is
applicable to all jurisdictions. Due to the fact that local drought conditions are dependent on rainfall, and
rainfall is very unpredictable in the area, there is no accurate way to create a hazard figure for drought
hazards. Due to the widespread nature of the potential impacts of a drought, the entire population of the
county could potentially be affected by a severe drought occurrence. It is most likely, however, that
droughts in Suwannee County will be minor and short-lived. Their impacts would be limited to agricultural
operations and fires that may occur resulting from drought conditions.
Probability: Based on past occurrence, the probability of drought occurrence in Suwannee County,
including its three municipalities, is medium (at least 1 occurrence every 3 years). All areas are equally
likely to experience drought.
Vulnerability: Drought presents a medium risk for Suwannee County. The greatest economic
threat would be to the agricultural products and the timber industry. Based on the data from the last five
years in 2006 and 2007 from Spring to the late Fall were the driest months with ranges reaching into the
severe to extreme drought range.
In addition, Suwannee Countywide has a significant amount of acreage that is used for active
agricultural crops. When this acreage becomes parched during a drought, the area becomes vulnerable to
wildfires and to the economic costs of decreased agricultural production.
The committee team recognizes that they need to closely monitor and review the drought plan for
Florida and the impact that drought will have on the county.
Extent for Suwannee Countywide: This hazard is considered a medium risk to the county. The
136
Committee determined that drought could be a severe extent according to the palmer drought scale in
reference to the agriculture industry based on the historical occurrence and data that drought has occurred
in years 2006, 2007 and 2008. In 2006 and 2007, the County experienced extreme drought periodically
through the year. The current climate phase is in La Niña, which could bring abnormally dry periods and
moderate drought, especially in 2011 for the County.
Winter Storms/F reezing T emp eratures
Winter storms may include extreme cold temperatures (freeze), high winds, snow, and ice, all of
which have the potential to impact people, structures, and infrastructure.
During the winter North Florida is occasionally invaded by massive cold fronts that originate far to
the north. Although the temperature within these air masses rises significantly during their passage to
Florida, they are capable of bringing intense cold to the State.
The State’s record minimum temperature was set in February 1899 when Tallahassee experienced
-2° F. Once cold waves move onto the peninsula the relatively warm waters of the Atlantic and the Gulf of
Mexico exert their influence, and the airmass’ temperature rises.
Not a year goes by when there is not some damage to the citrus or vegetable crop somewhere in
the State. Severe freezes in the 19th and 20th centuries gradually drove the center of citrus production
southward from the Orlando area to southern Polk County. Winter vegetable growers have long
concentrated their production south of Lake Okeechobee, where they gamble each year that their crop will
be spared a severe blow from freezes.
Source: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center/index.shtml
Of the dozen or so devastating freezes that have impacted the citrus industry and other agriculture
concerns over the last century or in the Southeast, nearly all of them occurred during times of Neutral
conditions in the Pacific Ocean, when there is neither El Niño or La Niña present.
An in-depth analysis of weather observations from across the Southeast over the last 60 years
shows that the risk of severe freezes in Florida is up to three times greater during Neutral conditions in the
Pacific Ocean. Being in a Neutral year this winter, the risk for a severe freeze event is higher. The details
on probabilities for specific extreme temperatures in Suwannee County, see the Climate Risk Tool, Table
4.29.
137
Table 4.29 - Climate Risk Tool
Suwannee County - Extreme Minimal Temperature (2005 – 2009)
Year
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Jan
21
23
27
29
21
Feb
20
27
21
24
31
Mar
29
33
29
31
28
Apr
33
35
31
42
38
May
55
47
49
42
50
Jun
63
65
63
60
64
Jul
64
64
65
62
71
Aug
63
70
70
69
70
Sep
52
57
64
54
62
Oct
38
31
48
36
36
Nov
35
22
32
33
32
Figures 4.17 – 4.21 are the monthly minimum temperatures for Suwannee County (2005 – 2009).
Figure 4.17 – Monthly minimum temperature for Suwannee County - 2005
Dec
22
29
31
29
24
Figure 4.19 –Monthly minimum temperature for Suwannee County - 2007
138
139
Table 4.30 - Average and Deviation
Avg
Dev
Jan
23.6
0.8
Feb
24.2
-1.7
Mar
30.6
-0.2
Apr
38.9
0
May
49.7
0.5
Jun
60.5
0
Jul
65.7
-0.1
Aug
66.6
0.9
Sep
56.4
-1.4
Oct
40.6
0.6
Figure 4.22 – Average Minimum Temperature –
Suwannee County, La Niña Years
Figure 4.23 - Average Minimum Temperature Probability Distribution – Suwannee County, La Niña Years
Nov
28.8
-1.1
Dec
25.2
0.8
140
Figure 4.24 - Average Minimum Temperature Probability of Exceedance – Suwannee County, La Niña Years
Source: http://agroclimate.org/forecasts/freeze_forecast.php
Important Note: The Current Climate Phase is La Niña.
.
Suwannee County’s geographic location in north Florida makes it immune to many of the severe
impacts of freezes and winter storms that much of the United States experiences during the winter months.
With the recorded data for five years (2005 – 2009) in Suwannee County, there was an average of 4.4
days every year when the temperature fell below 32 degrees. See table 4.31.
Table 4.31 – Number of Days Below 32 degrees (2005 – 2009)
Year
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
# of days below 32 degrees
4
5
5
4
4
Temperatures may fall below 20 degrees once every few years, however the data recorded above
does not show extreme minimum temperatures below 20 degrees for the last five years. Although
temperatures do fall into the freezing range on rare occasions, the freezing temperatures last only for
several hours in the late night and early morning hours. Brief occurrences of sub-freezing temperatures do
not necessarily result in freezes. Suwannee County generally experiences a freeze once every two years.
Suwannee County has experienced very rare occurrences of snow and ice.
Suwannee County can expect crop damage, minor roadway icing, ruptured pipes in structures, and
increased threats to sick and elderly. With about 60% of the county being agricultural land, Suwannee
County could be particularly vulnerable to a freeze, in terms of its economic impacts on the agricultural
141
industry. Because freezing temperatures in the area are brief in duration, this distinction is not significant in
terms of one area being more vulnerable to freezing temperatures than another.
Additional information about freezing temperatures
Florida has experienced occasional cold fronts that can bring high winds and relatively cooler
temperatures for the entire state, with high temperatures that could remain into the 40s and 50s (4 to 15
°C) and lows of 20s and 30s (-7 to 4 °C) for few days in the northern and central parts of Florida, although
below-freezing temperatures are very rare in the southern part of the state. Low temperatures have been
10's and high temperature in the upper 30s.
Probability: This hazard is applicable to all jurisdictions. Based on past occurrences, the County’s
geographic location, and that the current climate phase is La Niña, the probability of winter storm and
freeze occurrence in Suwannee County is high (at least 1 occurrence every year).
Vulnerability: While the probability of freeze or winter storm is high, the economic impacts could be
great because of the large amount of agricultural land in the county. The vulnerability to freeze and winter
storm is medium to high (at least 1 occurrence every 3 years to every year).
It is important to note that structures are not the most vulnerable thing when it comes to winter
storms and freezes. There could be a risk to electrical outages, frozen or broken water pipes, and road
closures due to ice or debris on the roads or highways.
Extent: This hazard is considered a medium to high risk for the county, especially for the
agricultural crops. The Committee determined that the extent in terms of damage to agriculture could be
medium to high. Based on historical data for the State of Florida, the coldest temperature was -2 degrees F
in February 1899. This recorded temperature would be the extreme and worst-case scenario. As noted
above, low temperatures of the 20s and 30s can last for a few days.
Critical Facilities
Note: The critical facilities information and location for Suwannee County are in the attachments, section
four, Critical Facilities for Suwannee County area of the plan.
Critical Facilities are defined for the purpose of the LMS plan are those facilities essential
to the preservation of life and property during a hazard event and or those facilities critical to the continuity
of government as well as those necessary to ensure timely recovery. They are essential to the
maintenance of health, safety and welfare of the county residents.
The facilities include essential services for the community such as:
Public Schools
Lift Stations
Radio Station
City Halls
Public Works
Court House
Fire Stations/Depot
Fuel Stations
Coliseum Complex
Police Dept.
Sheriff Offices
Tax Collector
Property Appraiser
142
143
Section Five
Mitigation Goals
and Policies
This section of the Suwannee County Local Mitigation Strategy describes the goals established by
the Committee and the current policy objectives that support mitigation. The goals are intended to reduce
or avoid the effects of the profiled hazards addressed in the risk assessment area in Section Four.
In the planning process the Committee establishes goals for the entire planning area and all of the
participating jurisdictions. The following was noted for the goals and objectives that were identified in the
previous approved LMS plan:
• They reflect the updated risk assessment
• They were analyzed and re-evaluated which lead to the current mitigation projects that will reduce
the vulnerability for each jurisdiction
• They did support to the changes made in the mitigation priority list, and
• They provided the direction needed to reflect the current State of Florida goals for mitigating
hazards within the counties
Community Guiding Principles
The guiding principles were reviewed and referenced for this LMS plan. They are a broad
philosophy that guides the county through the years. Suwannee County and its Municipalities have the
following list of plans and policies currently enacted:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Suwannee County Comprehensive Plan
City of Live Oak Comprehensive Plan
Town of Branford Comprehensive Plan
County and Municipal Land Development Regulations
County Building Code
County Housing Code
County and Municipal Code of Ordinances
Suwannee County 5-Year Strategic Plan
Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
The guiding principles for the county provide the policy and objectives from public health, safety
and welfare to response time to disaster preparedness. A brief outline in table 5.1 details the policies for the
county and the plans, regulations and codes for source location. A detailed list of the objectives are located
in the attachments, section five, LMS Guiding Principles.
As Suwannee County’s LMS plan is reviewed and updated by the Committee, the guiding
principles will be reviewed to ensure that they are applicable to meeting the unique needs, interests, and
desires of the community.
144
Table 5.1 – Guiding Principles for Suwannee County
Policy/ Objective
1. Public Health, Safety, and Welfare
2. Stormwater Management
3. Floodplain Management
4. Natural Resource Protection
5. Land Development Regulation
6. Infrastructure/Critical Facilities
7. Construction Codes
8. Affordable Housing
9. Post-Disaster Redevelopment
10. Hazards Awareness
11. Historical and Cultural Resources
12. Governmental Coordination
13. Disaster Preparedness
Source and Location in Source
County and Municipal Comprehensive Plans; Live Oak
Comprehensive Plan; Branford Comprehensive Plan;
Future Land Use Element; Housing Element; Public
Facilities Element; County and Live Oak Land
Development Regulations, Article 4, Article 6, Article 7,
Article 8, Article 9, Article 10, Article 14; Branford Land
Development Code, Article 7; Live Oak, Standard
Housing Code, Ordinance 803; Conservation Element;
County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan;
Basic Plan, Response Action, F(3)(a) Sheltering,
Section VI, II A (1 – 12), II E (1 -3), III A (1-3), B (1-3),
III C (1-2), III E (1 - 2), Notification and Warning, III F (2
a-c) Evacuation , Appendix Page 21, 50; Annex I;
Annex II – Recovery and Mitigation Actions D(1), D(2),
D(4), (c) Infrastructure, Sections B(5), Damage
Assessment Functions; County 5-Year Strategic Plan,
Goal III, Shelter Space for Residents, Goal IV Critical
Facilities, Goal V, Public Information Program; Goal
VII, Goal VIII; County & Municipal Codes and
Ordinances; Live Oak, Ordinance 803;
Intergovernmental Coordination Element; County, City
of Live Oak & Town of Branford
Local Mitigation Strategy Goals
Suwannee County established a number of goals to guide its work in the mitigation planning effort.
As stated above, the mitigation goals were re-evaluated and they were determined to remain and effective
for the updated plan. Goals for thunderstorms/lightning and hailstorms were added for the updated plan.
Over the last five years, significant progress has been achieved in reducing the long-term
vulnerability to the natural hazards. A detailed description of the completed mitigation initiatives or projects
are located in the attachments, section five, 2010 Suwannee County Mitigation Project List.
The LMS goals to reduce or avoid long-term vulnerabilities, by specific hazard type are listed in
table 5.2.
145
Table 5.2 – Suwannee County Mitigation Goals
Hazard
Flood
Goals
Goal 1.1
Goal description
Minimize damage to existing and future buildings and
infrastructure as a result of flooding.
Sinkhole
Goal 2.1
Hurricane
Goal 3.1
Minimize damage to future buildings and infrastructure by
identifying and mapping sinkholes and areas of known
sinkhole formation and providing policy direction in local
government comprehensive plans which limits and guides
development away from such areas.
Reduce the number of buildings without public utility services
in the aftermath of a hurricane.
Goal 3.2
Reduce the length of time buildings are without public utility
services in the aftermath of a hurricane.
Goal 3.3
Reduce the susceptibility to damage of existing and future
buildings to damage caused by high winds associated with
hurricanes.
Minimize loss of life as a result of tornado events.
Maintain current levels and rates of riverine erosion by limiting
development within, and directing development away from the
100-year floodplains of rivers, streams, and creeks.
infrastructure as a result of wildfires.
Minimize declines in water table levels as a result of drought.
Minimize loss of lives as a result of droughts and heat waves.
Minimize loss of lives as a result of winter storms and freezes.
Tornado
Riverine Erosion
Goal 4.1
Goal 5.1
Wildfire
Goal 6.1
Drought/Heat Wave
Goal 7.1
Goal 7.2
Goal 8.1
Winter Storms/ Freezing
Temperatures
Thunderstorms/Lightning
Hailstorms
Dam/Levee Failure
Goal 9.1
Goal 10.1
infrastructure as a result of thunderstorms and lightning.
infrastructure as a result of hailstorms.
N/A
The Committee reviewed the goals established and determined and identified the projects with the
natural hazards. A comprehensive range of specific mitigation projects address the goals to reduce or avoid
long-term vulnerability. Some of these initiatives are continuing projects from the previous Local Mitigation
Strategy plan. See table 5.3.
Table 5.3 – Mitigation Initiatives and or Projects to Reduce
Long-term Vulnerability
Types of
Hazards
Current mitigation project list for each jurisdiction to
reduce long-term vulnerability
Suwannee County
Flood
Flood
All Hazards
Flood
All Hazards
Wildfire
Reduce or eliminate the long-term risk of flood damage to residences
with repetitive losses by retrofitting, elevating structures, and/or by
purchase of properties.
Incorporate into local floodplain mitigation programs all updated and
digitized Federal Emergency Management Agency floodplain maps as
they become available from the FEMA Flood Map Modernization
Program.
Encourage and engage the Suwannee County citizens in the
Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) training program.
Conduct educational updates and recertification.
Maintain local government comprehensive plan policies, which limit the
allowable use and intensity of use of lands within the 100-year flood
plains of the Ichetucknee, Santa Fe and Suwannee Rivers as
Environmentally Sensitive on the Future Land Use Plan Map.
Conduct a comprehensive public education program to inform the entire
county residents on how to be self-sufficient for 72 hours, and to reduce
vulnerability to all hazards that affect the County.
Work with the Florida Division of Forestry on the Community Wildfire
Protection Plan (CWPP) to reduce wildfire risk within the WildlandUrban Interface.
Wildfire
Promote Florida Division of Forestry programs to inform the public of
Firewise Building and Landscape design principles.
Sinkhole
Map areas of sinkholes (countywide) using the geographic information
system (GIS).
All Hazards
Upgrade communications systems to assure communications are
maintained among emergency service providers during and after a
natural disaster.
Provide wind resistant retrofitting, including hurricane shutters, fuel
system and a backup electrical generator at the County Public Works
Department.
Provide wind retrofitting, including hurricane shutters, at the Office of
the Sheriff.
Construct a new hazard-resistant building for the County Emergency
Management, Emergency Operations Center.
Tornado, Hurricane
Tornado, Hurricane
All Hazards
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All Hazards
Install a backup electrical generator and shutters for the County
Administration Building.
Flood
Evaluate possible implementation of a reverse 911 emergency
telephone warning system to inform citizens of dangerous or hazardous
events.
Conduct hazardous materials training programs for first responders and
operational level personnel.
All Hazards
All Hazards
All Hazards
Flood
Flood
Flood
Wildfire, Drought
Flood
Provide a backup generator at the County Public Health Department.
Insert important emergency contact information and mitigation fact
sheet in all Suwannee County newcomer package. In addition, the fact
sheet will be posted on the Suwannee County website and the City of
Live Oak’s website.
Request a drainage study of the Little River Basin from the Suwannee
River Water Management District to identify future projects that may
alleviate repetitive road damage, such as additional or larger culverts,
grade elevation and bridges on flooded road segments.
Maintain requirements for 75-foot natural vegetated buffers from the
Ichetucknee, Sante Fe and Suwannee Rivers, 50-foot natural
vegetative buffers from all perennial rivers, streams, and creeks.
Continue participation in the FEMA NFIP and require all habitable
structures built within the 100-year floodplain be evaluated no lower
than 1 foot above the base flood elevation and increase from 1 foot to 2
feet minimum height above the 100-year floodplain required for the first
floor of all structures.
Enforce local laws, which allow local governments to enact, burn bans
during periods of drought.
Continue policies, which limit development to low-density and nonintensive uses in high aquifer, recharge areas in order to maintain high
rates of water recharge, and support compliance with water
conservation programs and emergency water conservation efforts
established by the Suwannee River Water Management District.
City of Live Oak
All Hazards
Construct an additional ingress/egress road (Silas Drive extension) for
schools as outlined in the FDOT traffic/safety report.
Flood
Make various modifications/additions to City of Live Oak Lift Stations
consisting of raising the wet well elevation at Lift Station #4, purchasing
6 portable generators (3 phase, 60-Hz, 230-Volt) and modifying
generator receptacles at 13 lift stations
Flood
Enlarge an existing retention pond and construct a positive drainage
outflow drainage system on Marymac Street between Pine Avenue and
Ohio Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
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All Hazards
Encourage and engage the City of Live Oak citizens in the Community
Emergency Response Team (CERT) training program. Conduct
educational updates and recertification.
Flood
Construct a positive outflow drainage system at the intersection of Scott
Street and Tarver Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Construct a positive drainage outflow drainage system at the
intersection of Martin Street and Anna Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Flood
Enlarge existing retention pond and construct a positive drainage
outflow drainage system on Duval Street between Eva Avenue and Lee
Street in the City of Live Oak.
Enlarge existing retention pond and construct a positive drainage
outflow drainage system in the area containing Hillman Avenue
between First Street and Beech Street in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
intersection of Lake Avenue and Ruby Street in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Flood
Flood
Flood
intersection of Railroad Avenue and Colonial Street in the City of Live
Oak.
intersection of Westmoreland Street and Myrtle Avenue in the City of
Live Oak.
intersection of Colonial Street and Weller Avenue in the City of Live
Oak.
outflow drainage system on Walker Avenue south of Pinewood Drive in
the City of Live Oak.
Tornado
Encourage the construction of tornado safe rooms in habitable
buildings and shelters in mobile home parks for tornado emergencies.
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Flood
outflow drainage system on Johnson Avenue and Booker Avenue
between 7th and 8th Streets in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Construct a retention pond and a positive drainage outflow drainage
system on Old Madison Road in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
intersection of 2 nd Street and Walker Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Tornado, Hurricane
Enlarge existing retention pond and construct a positive outflow
drainage system near the intersection of Darrow and Marymac Streets
in the City of Live Oak.
Install hurricane shutters at Live Oak City Hall, Annex and the Police
Department.
Flood
intersection of 8th Street and Lincoln Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Enlarge an existing retention pond and a positive outflow drainage
system on County Road 136 (11th Street) in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
system on Santa Fe Street between Pearl and Manor Streets in the City
of Live Oak.
Flood
intersection of 7th Street and Lincoln Avenue.
Wildfire
Flood
intersection of 7th Street and Walker Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
intersection of 6th Street and Green Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
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Flood
Flood
intersection of 5th Street and Green Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
system at the intersection of Main Street and Cypress Street in the City
of Live Oak.
Flood
intersection of 5th Street and Madison Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Construct a positive drainage outflow drainage system along Peavy
Street in the City of Live Oak.
Flood
Hurricanes,
Tornado
system at the intersection of King Street and Anna Avenue in the City of
Live Oak.
Install hurricane shutters and a “life safety” backup generator at
Suwannee High School.
Hurricanes,
Tornado
Suwannee Middle School.
Town of Branford
Flood
Provide a backup generator and flood proof the Town of Branford 2nd
Avenue and 1st Street sewer lift station.
Hurricane
Install Hurricane Shutters and pre wire the building for a generator at
the Town of Branford Community Center.
Encourage and engage the Town of Branford citizens in the Community
Emergency Response Team (CERT) training program. Conduct
educational updates and recertification.
Branford High School.
All Hazards
Hurricanes,
Tornado
Wildfire
Construct new Fire Station for Town of Branford; the existing building
doors are too small for the engines.
Wildfire
All Hazards
Install metal roof to Branford Community Center Building, which serves
as the alternate for the Town of Branford Town Hall.
Tornado
Encourage the construction of tornado safe rooms in habitable
buildings and shelters in mobile home parks for tornado emergencies.
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National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
Floodplain management is the operation of a community program of corrective and preventative
measures for reducing flood damage. These measures take a variety of forms and generally include
requirements for zoning, subdivision or building, and special-purpose floodplain ordinances. A community's
agreement to adopt and enforce floodplain management ordinances, particularly with respect to new
construction, is an important element in making flood insurance available to home and business owners.
Currently over 20,100 communities voluntarily adopt and enforce local floodplain management ordinances
that provide flood loss reduction building standards for new and existing development.
Source: FEMA - http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/floodplain/index.shtm#4
Continuing compliance with NFIP
•
•
•
•
Suwannee County, City of Live Oak and the Town of Branford are active participants in the
NFIP.
The flood insurance rate maps (FIRM) for Suwannee County were updated September 28,
2007. The County citizens were notified on the map updates.
Suwannee County is CRS rated:
CRS entry date: 10/1/96
CRS effective date: 10/1/00
Current class: 8
% discount for SFHA: 10
% discount for Non-SFHA: 5
Status: Current
The County continues to promote the Flood Insurance for all properties. See table 5.4
Table 5.4 - NFIP Policy Statistics as of 3/31/2010
Community Name
Policies In-Force
Suwannee County
City of Live Oak
Town of Branford
•
•
•
•
376
112
15
Insurance In-force whole $
$60,662,000
$15,104,900
$2,585,000
Written premium In-force
183,000
91,171
10,495
The County will continue to enforce their adopted Floodplain Management Ordinance
requirements, which include regulating all new development and substantial improvements
in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA).
The Community Assistance Visit (CAV) is a major component of the NFIP’s Community
Assistance Program (CAP). The County will work with FEMA or the State on the CAV
program to assure hat the community is adequately enforcing the floodplain management
regulations.
The County will continue to reach out to the citizens and keep them informed on NFIP and
encourage participation.
Each jurisdiction will continue the implementation of policies for preserving and enhancing
•
•
•
•
•
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the natural environment (i.e., 100-year floodplain) through the enforcement of land
development regulations for floodplain management and stormwater management to
maintain the natural functions.
Each jurisdiction will continue to require that the County maintain an inventory of
environmentally sensitive areas, which shall include 100-year floodplains.
Each jurisdiction will continue to adopt or amend land development regulations, which limit
the density of dwelling units within FEMA designated 100-year floodplains such that
existing flood storage is maintained and allowable densities do not create potential flood
hazards, or degrade the natural functions of the floodplain.
Each jurisdiction will continue to require that all structures built in the 100-year floodplain
include at least one-foot freeboard.
Each jurisdiction will consider requiring areas that have not established base flood
elevations to be studied prior to development.
Each jurisdiction will consider policies that include preparation of a stormwater master plan
to further mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community.
Severe Repetitive Loss
The definition of severe repetitive loss as applied to this program was established in section 1361A
of the National Flood Insurance Act, as amended (NFIA), 42 U.S.C. 4102a. An SRL property is defined as
a residential property that is covered under an NFIP flood insurance policy and:
(a)That has at least four NFIP claim payments (including building and contents) over $5,000 each,
and the cumulative amount of such claims payments exceeds $20,000; or (b) For which at least two
separate claims payments (building payments only) have been made with the cumulative amount of the
building portion of such claims exceeding the market value of the building; or both (a) and (b) above, at
least two of the referenced claims must have occurred within any ten-year period, and must be greater than
10 days apart.
Source: FEMA - http://www.fema.gov/government/grant/srl/index.shtm
Repetitive Flood Loss Properties
A Repetitive Loss (RL) property is any insurable building for which two or more claims of more
than $1,000 were paid by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) within any rolling ten-year period,
since 1978.
There are several risk reduction strategies for Repetitive Flood Loss Properties. FEMA has
placed special emphasis on addressing repetitive flood loss properties through the mitigation planning
process; therefore, it is important to identify strategies to lower the number of repetitive loss properties
within the County.
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The following are examples of actions that can be taken to lower or eliminate both the number of repetitive
loss claims and properties in the County.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
acquisition;
building codes;
detention basins;
drainage culverts;
drainage system maintenance;
setback regulations;
elevation;
firebreaks;
floating zones;
floodplain management plans;
flood proofing;
moratoria;
real estate disclosure requirements;
relocation;
sewage lift stations; and
stormwater drainage maintenance.
Repetitive Loss Property
There were 27 known repetitive loss properties in Suwannee County with a total loss of
$1,236,544.89. The details are as follows:
•
•
•
Branford – there were 10 properties (nine residential and one non-residential) in zip code 32008
Live Oak – there were 12 properties (all residential) in zip code 32060
Suwannee County (Unincorporated) – there were 5 properties (all residential) in zip codes 32055,
32071, 32094
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Section Six
Compilation of
Mitigation Initiatives
This section of Suwannee’s LMS contains the Committee’s decision on the mitigation initiatives that
address hazards presenting a significant threat to County communities. Each hazard is evaluated as not
every hazard or “event” will have an affect on the jurisdictions.
Prioritization of Initiatives
Threshold Criteria for Project Evaluation
It is imperative to have a well thought out prioritization and ranking methodology to aid the Local
Mitigation Strategy Committee and local governments in developing a prioritized list of projects and
initiatives, some of which may have to compete for limited funds. The threshold criteria described below
can be used to prioritize Local Hazard Mitigation projects and initiatives.
There are 15 factors to consider for mitigation projects or initiatives. A project or initiative must
meet at least a majority of the following threshold criteria.
1) Is the project or initiative listed in the local government Comprehensive Plan?
2) Is the project or initiative consistent with the local government Emergency Management Plan?
3) Is the project or initiative consistent with the local government regulatory framework, building codes
and Land Development Regulations?
4) Does the project or initiative result in credit points for the Community Rating System?
5) Does the project or initiative reduce loss?
6) Does the project or initiative mitigate a frequently occurring, high risk or specific problem?
7) Does the project or initiative have a cost-benefit ratio greater than 1?
8) Will the community continue to receive the benefits for more than a year?
9) Is there public demand or support for the project or initiative?
10) Is there a local sponsor for the project or initiative?
11) Is funding currently available for the project or initiative?
12) Is there an identified funding source or entity for the project or initiative?
13) Does the project or initiative have no environmental drawbacks?
14) Will the project or initiative be completed within one year?
15) Does the project or initiative have any regional significance?
Prioritization Criteria
The Committee develops an initial list of mitigation projects or initiatives. Each mitigation project or
initiative identified for funding will be cost-effective, technically feasible, contribute to the overall strategy
outlined in the Local Mitigation Strategy, and be acceptable to regulatory agencies.
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Projects or initiatives are then prioritized utilizing the prioritization criteria outlined below. The Local
Mitigation Strategy Committee may evaluate these criteria annually, recommending changes to
prioritization criteria that are deemed necessary.
Initiatives are prioritized using the following criteria:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
Protect Lives
Protect Property
Support Essential Services
Support Community LMS and Community Guiding Principles
Ensure Regional Benefits
Table 6.1 - Prioritization Score Sheet
Item
Criteria
Measure
Points
1
Supports Public Health and
Safety
1. Short Term - Alleviates existing health or safety hazard
2. Intermediate - Alleviates potential health or safety hazard
3. Long term - Promotes or maintains health or safety
1. Short Term
(100 points)
2. Intermediate
(75 points)
3. Long Term
(50 points)
4. Total points if all three
areas apply (225 points)
2
Protects Lives
Number of people protected
1. More than 500 lives
(50 points)
2. 101 to 500 lives
(40 points)
3. 11 to 100 lives
(30 points)
4. 10 or less lives
(20 points)
3
Protects Property
Type of properties protected
1. Residential - 4 points
per property (max of 80
points); or (20 points for
one residential property)
2. Commercial - 3 points
points)
3. Second Home - 2 points
1.
2.
3.
4.
4
Reduces Future Damages
Residential Properties - including rentals
Business Properties - commercial/non-profit
Second Homes - cabins, retreats, etc.
Vacant Lots/Acreage
Reduces risk of repetitive damages and is cost-effective1.
(e.g., reduces development in the 100-year floodplain)
1. Significant reduction in
risk (60 points)
2. Little to no risk reduction
(0 points2)
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Item
Criteria
Measure
5
Protects Natural Resources and
Environmental Quality
1.
2.
3.
4.
6
Protects Cultural Resources
1. Protects historical buildings or structures
2. Protects archaeological sites
1. 4 points/unit
(max of 40 points)
2. 3 points/unit
(max of 30 points)
7
Supports essential or critical
services
1. Essential services (gas, electric, garbage, sewer, roads,
water, fire, police/sheriff, shelters, designated public
facilities, and/or emergency operations) provided by local
government
2. Businesses designated as essential in the
Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
1. Essential public service
(20 points)
2. Essential business
service
(15 points)
3. Total points if both areas
apply (35 points)
8
Supports Local Mitigation
Strategy and Community
Guiding Principles
Number of Community Guiding Principles the project
supports
5 points for each principle
supported (max of 30
points)
9
Provides Regional Benefits
Benefit extends beyond the local government boundaries
25 points
Improves stormwater management
Improves flood management
Protects water quality
Protects forest lands from wildfires
Points
1.
2.
3.
4.
20 points
20 points
20 points
20 points
Total Number of Points
Date Completed: __________________________________
Scoring Performed By: Local Mitigation Strategy Committee
Committee Chair:
_____________________________________________
Printed Name
1. Provides for minimal cost vs. benefit consideration; not based on the detail analysis required for
cost-benefit considerations.
2. No reduction in risk or if reduction is not cost-effective; actual cost-benefit analysis may yield
different results.
Proposed Projects and/or Initiatives
The Local Mitigation Strategy Committee utilized the Hazard Mitigation Project Prioritization
Threshold and Project Prioritization Criteria, included within the Prioritization of Projects and Initiatives
Section of this document, to prioritize projects and/or initiatives. In addition, vulnerability scores provided
within the Vulnerability Assessment Section were used where appropriate.
The mitigation projects identified by the Local Mitigation Strategy Committee are listed in the
attachments, section five, 2010 Suwannee County Mitigation Project List. The goals for these projects
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are completion dates within the next 5 years as funding is available.
Mitigation Initiatives by Priority Score
After the Committee reviews the projects, they are assigned a priority score as a result of the
common process to characterize and prioritize mitigation initiatives that are used by the Committee
participants.
The priority is intended to serve as a guideline for the Committee regarding the implementation of a
specific project and/or initiative.
The priority scoring is based on the following areas:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Protect Lives
Protect Property
Support Essential or Critical Services
Support LMS and Community Guiding Principles
Provides Regional Benefits
Attachments, section six, Table 6.2 Mitigation Projects by Priority Score will provide a
breakdown of the priority scores. These scores have been assigned according to the knowledge of
the Committee and are not to be considered technical estimates.
Mitigation initiatives with higher points will be considered a higher priority depending on the funding
sources, see appendix D, funding sources by category list. However, other projects and/or initiatives
with lower scores could be prioritized based on the need for the county. It is important to note that when a
project is selected for the jurisdiction that they get the most “value” for the mitigation money they receive.
An initiative may yield significant benefits over the lifetime of the project that far outweighs the
initial costs. In lieu of conducting formalized benefit-cost analyses, order of magnitude cost estimates were
made by Suwannee County Committee assuming that less expensive projects would be easier to obtain
funding for and could be implemented more readily.
Mitigation for Future Buildings and Infrastructure
Information on the County Capital Improvement Plan
In the attachments, section six, Capital Improvement Projects folder, it provides a five-year
schedule of improvements for the County.
funding.
At the present time the Suwannee County Capital Improvement projects are deferred due to lack of
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The LMS will reference the Capital Improvement Plan in future updates to identify anticipated
growth and ensure it is accounted for when mitigating hazards within the jurisdictions.
Suwannee County Building Department will continue to update the information in the Capital
Improvement Plan which will state that all future development will be reviewed by the county planning
department and code enforcement who implement policies such as the Florida Building Code as well as
other local codes and requirements which reduce the effects of natural hazards on future structures with
the county.
When development planning for future projects of critical facilities and infrastructure are identified,
the vulnerability of the structures will be submitted through Local Mitigation System Committee for
incorporation in the Comprehensive Development Plan. The Suwannee County Building Supervisor will
insure that all future building code rules will be adhered to and all regulations will be strictly enforced.
Suwannee County is not expecting much growth within the next planning cycle. The County has
very a very small population with limited funds, and tax revenue from its’ citizens.
Completed Mitigation Initiatives
The projects or initiatives that are implemented over the years, the facilities, systems, and
neighborhoods of the participating jurisdictions will become less vulnerable to the impacts of future
disasters, and the communities of Suwannee County will become increasingly more disaster resistant.
Suwannee County has completed seven projects and/or initiatives for the jurisdictions over the last five
years. Specific details on what hazard it mitigated, the funding source, the estimated cost, the completion
date and comments are listed in the attachments, section five, 2010 Suwannee County Mitigation
Project List.
The list is as follows:
1. Provide backup electrical generators and flood proof two Town of Branford sanitary sewer lift
stations.
2. Acquire property on 139th Drive and repair sections of 80th Terrace near the County Airport to
reduce flooding around the airport to improve access to Fire Rescue.
3. Construction a retention pond and positive drainage outflow drainage system on Howard Street
(US Hwy 90) between Walker Avenue and Houston Avenue in Live Oak.
4. Retrofit the chlorination system to improve wind resistance at the Town of Branford water well to
notify if a loss of chlorine occurs.
5. Provide wind resistant retrofitting and fuel system at the County Airport.
6. Replace windows in the old Live Oak City Hall historic building.
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8. Construct a positive drainage outflow drainage system in an area containing Winderweedle
Street, King Street and Walker Avenue in the City of Live Oak.
Deleted or Removed Mitigation Initiatives from the previous LMS Plan
These mitigation projects were removed from the previous LMS mitigation action list.
They were reviewed, analyzed and determined that other current mitigation projects replaced the
identified project; or the project was incorporated and noted in the evaluation process of other County
plans, or the project was deemed unnecessary for the County going forward in mitigating the natural
hazards.
1. Evaluate the feasibility of hiring a full-time emergency management planner to assist in maintaining
the LMS and the CEMP, in addition to applying for FEMA grants and other natural-disaster
planning activities.
2. Encourage the County school board to, when building new schools, install backup generators and
hurricane shutters.
3. Consider amendments to local governments comprehensive plans and land development
regulations to require underground cable, electrical and telephone lines in new subdivisions.
4. Consider amendments to local government comprehensive plans to provide density bonuses and
other incentives to encourage the placement of hurricane shutters on buildings.
5. Request the Florida DOT to place evacuation route signs on County Hurricane Evacuation Routes
and educate the public on evacuation routes to be used during emergencies.
6. Consider working with local public utilities to place cable, electric and telephone utility lines
underground in existing urban areas.
7. Evaluate County and municipal local government comprehensive plans for consistency with the
LMS and amend the local government comprehensive plans to improve long-term mitigation of
natural hazards, with a special emphasis on existing and future buildings and infrastructure.
8. Maintain local government minimum housing codes, which establish minimum performance
standards for the heating of dwelling units.
9. Open public warming shelters when temperatures drop to 35 degrees.
10. Consider a feasibility study of railroad overpasses to alleviate delays to emergency vehicles.
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Section Seven
Plan Implementation,
Maintenance, and Updating
The Suwannee County LMS serves as a guide for hazard mitigation activities on a community-wide
basis. The LMS strategy is intended to be a dynamic document that will be referenced.
This section will review the details in how the Suwannee County LMS plan will be implemented,
maintained, and updated. The implementation process contains the proposed mitigation initiatives or
projects for each jurisdiction included in this plan.
The maintenance is the process in which the Suwannee County LMS Committee will continue to
monitor, improve, evaluate, and update the mitigation planning process. The Department of Emergency
Management with the guidance of the key LMS Committee members will be responsible for the plan
implementation, the maintenance, the monitoring, and the updating of the next LMS plan.
Suwannee County has an extensive mitigation project or initiative list to reduce vulnerability to the
hazards that affect the County. The Department of Emergency Management will review the mitigation
project list (via email) every six months from the date of approval (to include removal of completed projects,
to check on the status of the projects that are currently in progress, and to delete the projects that are no
longer needed). In addition, on an annual review, data will be collected and recorded in files on current
hazard or event data, to review meeting documentation, and to analyze the public participation in order to
keep accurate records for the next major LMS update in five years.
It will also be further refined as more experience is gained in the implementation of mitigation
initiatives to reduce vulnerability to hazards. The Suwannee County LMS Committee will be the
organization responsible for the ongoing monitoring of the Strategy. The Committee will be coordinated
through the Suwannee County Department of Emergency Management.
Monitoring the Plan
The LMS Committee will meet at least once a year and conduct meetings via email to review and
evaluate the status of the proposed initiatives, to analyze any areas for improvements, and to update and
review the effectiveness of the LMS. In addition, Local Mitigation Strategy Reports will be submitted to the
Florida Division of Emergency Management.
These annual reports will contain the following information:
1)
2)
3)
4)
Meeting summaries of any Committee meetings conducted during the calendar year
List of completed mitigation initiatives
Addition of any new mitigation initiatives approved by the Committee
Any changes in the priority ranking of mitigation initiatives
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5) Updates to the County’s critical facilities list, as needed
6) Updated vulnerability assessment data and maps, if necessary
7) Review public participation from the County citizens
On an ongoing basis, new mitigation initiatives will be considered by the Committee for inclusion
into the strategy. New initiatives within identified hazard areas and the highest risk areas will be the highest
priority when adding new initiatives. Completed initiatives will be removed from the initiatives list and any
new initiatives will be added as they are identified and approved by the Committee. Mitigation initiatives
may only be added or removed by affirmative vote of the majority of the Committee members.
If implementation experience indicates a need to modify the strategy in any way, a special meeting
of the Committee may be called. Any Committee member may request a special meeting. Suwannee
County Emergency Management will coordinate the scheduling for the meetings and make announcements
to the County citizens of the upcoming meetings. A minimum of 30-days advance notice will be given for
annual meetings.
Every five years, the LMS will undergo a comprehensive evaluation and will be resubmitted to
municipal councils and commissions to the Board of County Commissioners for re-adoption.
The criteria used to evaluate the LMS document and activities should include, but not be limited to the
following:
1) Federal and/or State requirements
2) Changes in development trends and land use that could affect infrastructure
a. (Water, sewer, stormwater, roads, traffic, etc.)
3) Storms or other natural processes that have altered Suwannee County’s hazard areas
a. (Wind damage, flooding, erosion, wildfires, drought, etc.)
4) Completion of existing mitigation projects and introduction of new goals
5) Changes in policy
6) Changes in building codes and practices
7) Review of legislative actions that could affect mitigation efforts
8) Changes in Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM’s), National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), etc.
Plan Evaluation Process
As noted in the monitoring section, the LMS Committee will meet at least once a year and conduct
meetings via email every six months to monitor and assess the mitigation projects and to evaluate the
changing needs of the community. A comprehensive evaluation and revision of the Local Mitigation
Strategy will be completed every five years.
Changes in land use and development can affect a variety of infrastructure issues such as potable
water, sewer, roads, storm water runoff patterns, and ecological considerations such as water quality.
Storms and other natural processes, like erosion, continually alter a community’s hazard areas.
In addition, policies and programs should help achieve some of a community’s mitigation objectives
and may present the opportunity for new goals and objectives. Because so many factors will affect the
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success of mitigation efforts, a planned evaluation of the guiding principles and mitigation initiatives of the
Local Mitigation Strategy is essential.
Guiding Principles
A. Evaluation of Existing Goals and Objectives
Analysis of existing goals and objectives; determine to what extent the various goals and objectives
contained in this section have been achieved; identify any goals or objectives that have not been
satisfactorily met; identify any unforeseen or unexpected consequences of Local Mitigation Strategy
projects or policies
B. Update and Revise Goals and Objectives
Obtain public and private input into the development of additional goals and objectives; identify
goals and objectives, which are outdated, irrelevant, or are otherwise no longer applicable and remove
them from the Local Mitigation Strategy.
C. Update the Plan, Policy, and Ordinance Index
Update the index that relates the content recommendations of the Local Mitigation Strategy on the
revised and added goals and objectives. In addition, update on the new objectives based on any new
plans, policies, or ordinances that may have been added since the last Local Mitigation Strategy revision.
D. Update Mitigation Strategy Narrative Description
Based on the subsequent revisions to the Local Mitigation Strategy, update the narrative
description of how these linkages (in the index) contribute to the development of the comprehensive
mitigation strategy.
E. Identify Impediments
Evaluate the existing list of programs and policies that are at variance with the Local Mitigation
Strategy and determine if they are still at variance; determine what effects the new Local Mitigation
Strategy revisions might have on this list; also determine any new programs or policies that might be at
variance with the Local Mitigation Strategy based on the new revisions.
Plan Updating, Review, and Approval
The maintenance and revision process is in recognition of the likelihood of change and the need to
refine the strategy over time. Furthermore, it is a requirement of the County’s Comprehensive Emergency
Management Plan (CEMP) to address hazard mitigation and to review the CEMP on an annual basis.
Suwannee County’s CEMP plan was updated and adopted in July 2006. The details on the hazard
and risk assessment for the CEMP plan was obtained from the previous Suwannee County LMS plan.
Each hazard and risk determination was reviewed and analyzed for the CEMP plan. Suwannee County is
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currently updating their CEMP and will be completed the 4th Quarter of 2010. The details and information
from this LMS plan were referenced and will be incorporated into the CEMP.
It is important to note that the LMS plan be reviewed and a hazard or event analysis occurs every
year to ensure that it remains current and reflects changing conditions within the community. The climate
phases and weather patterns are essential to monitor as selected hazards can be affected as noted in
Section Four. The current climate phase is La Niña, which could bring warm and dry winters and set the
stage for drought and wildfire conditions for the County. By monitoring the weather patterns, the County
can prepare and watch for potential hazards that pose the highest risk to the counties citizens and
infrastructure.
In order to ensure that the local mitigation strategy remains updated, the Suwannee County
Emergency Management and Planning and Building staffs have agreed to review and revise the strategy
every year as part of the CEMP review.
To assist in this process, the Committee developed the following procedures.
 Review and update all hazard historical event and maps (if needed).
 Review and analyze the prioritization of the mitigation projects or initiatives, the current
status of the initiatives, removing completed projects, or proposing new initiatives.
 Conducting preliminary cost-benefit analysis for the projects that are technically feasible,
cost-effective and environmentally sound.
 Review grant applications for mitigation funding programs. See Appendix D: Funding
Sources by Category.
 Analyze and update funding source list for a potential match with the mitigation initiatives.
 Submit the updated LMS for public review and adoption by each jurisdiction’s Board of
Commissioners.
In addition, there are other types of planning mechanisms that Suwannee County used to
incorporate the hazard identification and risk assessment from the LMS plan.
They plans and programs are as follows:
The Local Comprehensive Plan
Capital Improvements Plan
Post-Disaster Redevelopment/Recovery Plan
Flood Mitigation Plan
Evacuation Plan
Transportation Improvement/Retrofit Program
Firewise and other Fire Mitigation Plan
The codes, regulations and procedures are:
Zoning Ordinance
Building Code/Permitting
Storm water Management
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Further detail on specific procedures
(A) Mapping
Update Maps
Update the land use, multi-hazard, flood prone areas, and other pertinent maps so that they reflect
the most current data available and the new revisions to the LMS.
Analyze and Update the Community’s Geographic Information
The technology status will evaluate the community’s current access to and ability to use
geographic information technology to support hazard identification and risk assessment; describe any
changes improvements or setbacks the community may have made in this area since the last Local
Mitigation Strategy revision.
(B) Inventory
Update National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Flood Depth Data
Update the NFIP information required in the Local Mitigation Strategy; and the historical flood
depth information required in the LMS. Note any obvious discrepancies between the data and the historical
events since the last Local Mitigation Strategy revision.
Update Inventory and Map of all Critical Facilities
Update this information based on construction, modification or demolition of structures since the
last revision, or based on any situational change since the last revision.
Evaluate and Identify Topic Areas Requiring Additional Research
Evaluate any progress that has been made on the existing topics since the last revision; identify
any new areas, which require further research.
(C) Modeling
Update Information and Apply Models
Input any applicable updated data and apply the storm damage and population growth models;
identify any areas of damage, which were not shown in the model from the last Local Mitigation Strategy
revision.
Evaluation of Economic Profile
Evaluate the existing economic and demographic profile based on the most up- to-date data
165
currently available; identify differences between this new profile and the last profile; determine the amount
of damage that has been mitigated since the last Local Mitigation Strategy revision if applicable.
(D) Summary
Evaluate the Vulnerability Assessment Summary
Identify any outcomes that have taken place that were not anticipated in the last Local Mitigation
Strategy revision; and identify any new outcomes, which might be a result of the new revisions.
Mitigation initiatives or projects
(A) Policies
Reevaluation and Identification of Policies
Evaluate the applicability of the policies listed in the existing Local Mitigation Strategy and
determine whether they continue to be relevant or whether they have become irrelevant; identify any new
policies that might not be listed in the existing Local Mitigation Strategy either due to the new Local
Mitigation Strategy revisions or because they are new policies.
(B) Programs
Reevaluate and Identify Building Codes
Evaluate any changes to the general building codes for the community and to the building codes
that are applied to any of the special areas listed in the Local Mitigation Strategy if applicable; pay particular
attention to the codes as they relate to hazard mitigation.
Review Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) Studies Procedures
Reevaluate and identify any changes to the procedures in the existing Local Mitigation Strategy for
requesting limited revised FIRM studies from Federal Emergency Management Agency; or identify other
funding sources for this type of project.
Identify Procedures to Earn Community Rating System (CRS) Points from National Flood Insurance
Program.
Evaluate the existing procedures and identify any new procedures based on changing conditions or the
new Local Mitigation Strategy revisions.
Evaluate Business Community Mitigation Activities
Evaluate existing procedures to coordinate with local businesses to develop mitigation activities;
determine the extent to which these procedures have been successful; identify any additional procedures
166
that may be applicable due to changing conditions or the new Local Mitigation Strategy revisions.
Evaluate Land Acquisition Program
Evaluate the effectiveness of the existing land acquisition program in the Local Mitigation Strategy;
determine which, if any, of the lands in high-hazard areas have been acquired; if no lands have been
acquired determine why they have not been.
(C ) Projects
Evaluation of Prioritized List of Mitigation Projects
Evaluate the existing list of prioritized mitigation projects and determine the status of each using an
evaluation priority score worksheet. In addition evaluate the costs of each project and update the costs to
reflect the most current estimates.
(D) Funding
Evaluate the Mitigation Expenditures Estimates
Evaluate the estimated one-time and annual local expenditures on mitigation programs and
projects; compare the new estimates to the existing estimate and note the reason for any discrepancy.
Evaluate Funding Mechanism List and External Funding List
Evaluate the existing list of funding mechanisms and the list of external funding sources that could
be used to fund hazard mitigation programs and projects. Identify any mechanisms or sources that are no
longer applicable and any mechanism or source that is applicable now that did not used to be applicable.
Evaluate Economic Incentives
Evaluate the list of economic incentives that could be used to discourage development in high
hazard areas; and identify any new incentives or incentives which are no longer applicable.
Continued Public Involvement
A noted in Section Two of the LMS plan, the general public is encouraged to become involved with
the Suwannee County LMS to gauge the plan effectiveness and help identify local hazards to be placed on
the county project list. The County citizens can provide valuable information about the past, present, and
future conditions within the community.
167
Opportunities to include the public in the LMS planning would include:
•
An open invitation to the public for the LMS meetings posted on the County Emergency
Management (EM) website (http://www.suwcounty.org/site/); and the City of Live Oak’s website.
The EM department’s webpage is one of the main sources of information for the citizens to
research and keep informed on the progress of the LMS planning process.
•
LMS Meeting notices will be placed in the local newspaper Suwannee Democrat.
•
LMS Meeting notices will be announced at the County Commissioners’ meeting.
•
A copy of the LMS plan will be maintained in the County Clerk’s office and at the local Public
Library for review.
•
The EM staff will go out to the community and talk about the local mitigation strategy efforts to the
local clubs, organizations, trade groups, associations, etc within each jurisdiction.
•
Encourage the citizens to become more involved with Community Emergency Response Team
(CERT), which could result in greater participation in the LMS plan.
The County will continue to pursue new ideas on how to get the public more involved in the LMS
planning.
Plan Approval and Adoption
In the overview of the plan, it is noted that FEMA and Florida DCA require that the governing
bodies City of Live Oak, Town of Branford and Suwannee County adopt the updated LMS plan. Adoption
of the Suwannee County LMS by the City and County Commissions will not have any legal effect on the
Comprehensive Plan or any other legally binding documents. However, adoption of the LMS will give the
county and its jurisdictions priority with respect to funding for disaster recovery and hazard mitigation from
state and federal sources. Through publication of this local mitigation plan, the Committee continues to
solicit the involvement of the entire community to make the people, neighborhoods, businesses, and
institutions of Suwannee County safer from the impacts of future disasters.
After FEMA conducts their review of the LMS and Suwannee County receives the “Approved
Pending Adoption” letter from FEMA, the County, the City of Live Oak and the Town of Branford will
formally adopt the newly updated LMS plan. The county has within one calendar year after receiving the
approved pending adoption letter to formally adopt the LMS plan before they are required to revise and
resubmit the plan for approval.

Suwannee County LMS Plan

Transcription

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