An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography
Transcription
An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography
An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) 16 August 2010 Mike Clancy Technical Director Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Fleet Numerical… • The U.S. Navy’s Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Center – – – – Global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models Weather satellite imagery products Tactical decision aids High Performance Computing (HPC) at all levels of classification (UNCLAS, SECRET, TOP SECRET) – The only global NWP Center protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD Information Assurance (IA) Standards – Closely partnered with the Marine Meteorology Division of NRL (R&D support) and the Naval Oceanographic Office (co-production of operational products) ...enabling fleet safety & warfighting effectiveness Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 2 Naval Meteorology & Oceanography FNMOC is the Key Enabler for the Top 3 CNMOC Priorities Maritime Operations Aviation Operations Fleet Safety1 and Near-Term Operational Readiness Fleet Operations Precise Time and Astrometry National Missions Navigation ISR Naval Special Warfare Today’s Fight Anti-Submarine Warfare Navy Operations Mine Warfare 1Keeping the Navy’s new Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) safe from weather threats is an area of growing concern. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 4 Organizational Profile • Highly technical, educated, and warfare experienced workforce consisting of military, civilians, and contractors – ~20 Officers • 55% with MS Degree • 25% will attend NPS next tour • Wardroom includes: 1 UK Exchange Officer and 1 USAF Exchange Officer – ~20 Enlisted • 63% with Advanced Navy Specialty Training • Several on Individual Augmentation (IA) assignments overseas – ~140 Government Civilians & Contractors: • Predominantly Physical Science and IT specialties (Meteorology, Oceanography, Computer Sciences) • PhD – 3%, MS Degree - 23%, BS Degree - 34% • ~$25M annual budget Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 5 Models Surface Pressure and Clouds Predicted by NOGAPS • FNMOC operates a highly integrated and cohesive suite of operational global and regional weather and ocean models: – Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) – Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) – Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR) – Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System 15 km (NAAPS) 10 km – GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model – WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model 5 km – Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) System – Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) 0 km 60 m s-1 l~30 km 40 m s-1 Obs ~28 km Mountain Wave Sierra Owens Valley 20 m s-1 0 m s-1 Cross section of temperature and wind speeds from COAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Concept of Operations Linking Forecasts to Decisions Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 7 High-Level View of Navy Modeling Architecture Piracy Performance Surface Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB, ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR) Acoustic Performance Surface Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS, BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts) Other ASW, MIW and Ocean Products Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP) BonD Tier 1 Database GFDN WW3 COAMPS Theater and OnScene Weather and Ocean Forecasting NOGAPS NAAPS Sat Imagery NAVO Ocean Models Fleet Numerical… Ensemble Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 8 High-Level View of Navy Modeling Architecture Piracy Performance Surface Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB, ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR) Acoustic Performance Surface Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS, BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts) Other ASW, MIW and Ocean Products Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP) BonD Tier 1 Database GFDN WW3 COAMPS Theater and OnScene Weather and Ocean Forecasting NOGAPS NAAPS Sat Imagery NAVO Ocean Models Fleet Numerical… Ensemble Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 9 Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) Fleet Numerical… Surface Pressure and Clouds from NOGAPS Improvement of NOGAPS Forecast Skill 1 0.95 0.9 Forecast Skill • State-of-the-art global spectral model • Run 4 times per day with forecasts to 180 hours • Provides lateral boundary conditions for COAMPS • Drives global WW3 at FNMOC • Drives global ocean circulation models at NAVO • One of the leading tropical cyclone track forecast models in the world • Developed and supported by NRL 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 24 HR 48 HR 72 HR Forecast Time 96 HR 120HR 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Modeling Changes in Past Year • NAVDAS – Local Area Coverage Winds – NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009) • NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009) • NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009) • EFS – Banded ET (Feb 2010) – Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010) – Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010) • GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009) • WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009) • NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10) Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation SystemAccelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation Monthly Averaged NOGAPS SHEM TAU120 500 hPa Height Anomaly Correlation by Year Fleet Numerical… NAVDAS-AR Effective 28 September Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Tropical Cyclone Track Errors 2010 Atlantic (to date..7/26) Homogeneous TC Forecast Error Forecast Error (nm) 400 350 MODELS 300 NGPI AVNI GFDI HWFI TVCN OFCL NOGAPS 250 200 150 100 NOGAPS GFS GFDL HWRF Consensu s+ECMWF Official 50 0 Fleet Numerical… 24 48 72 96 28 19 14 10 120 Forecast Hour 4 Number of Forecasts Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Tropical Cyclone Track Errors 2010 Western North Pacific (to date..7/26) Homogeneous TC Forecast Error 800 Forecast Error (nm) 700 600 NOGAPS MODELS 500 NGPI NOGAPS AVNI GFS CONW Consensus OFCL Official 400 300 +ECMWF 200 100 0 Fleet Numerical… 24 48 72 96 120 51 37 25 13 5 Forecast Hour Number of Forecasts Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Tropical Cyclone Track Errors 2010 Eastern North Pacific (to date..7/26) Homogeneous TC Forecast Error Forecast Error (nm) 250 NOGAPS 200 MODELS NGPI AVNI GFDI HWFI TVCN OFCL 150 100 50 NOGAPS GFS GFDL HWRF Consensu s+ECMWF Official 0 Fleet Numerical… 24 48 72 96 120 73 54 40 27 18 Forecast Hour Number of Forecasts Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… NOGAPS 850 mb Wind AC Scores NOGAPS low-level wind fields have always been as good as, or better than, GFS and others. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 16 NOGAPS 500 mb Height AC Scores Though NOGAPS 500 mb height skill generally lags that of GFS, there are months where it equals or betters GFS. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 17 Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) • • • • • Based on NOGAPS Forecasts, twice per day to16 days, 20 members, T119L30 resolution Ensemble Transform perturbations in 5 latitude bands Also includes WW3 (WaveWatch III) Forecasts, twice per day, 10 days, 20 members Gridded mean and standard deviation products for winds, air temp, pressure, heights, humidity available via CAGIPS and METCAST Web Graphics of means and standard deviations for standard WxMAP areas and variables; plus probability of wind speed exceeding 20, 35 and 50 kt, and probability of wave height exceeding 4, 8, 12, 18 and 24 ft Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 18 Modeling Changes in Past Year • NAVDAS – Local Area Coverage Winds – NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009) • NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009) • NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009) • EFS – Banded ET (Feb 2010) – Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010) – Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010) • GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009) • WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009) • NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10) Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… WxMap EFS Products • Ensemble Mean and Spread (stdev) Areas – N. Atlantic, S. Atlantic, W. Pacific, E. Pacific, Conus, Europe, Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Asia, Global, N. Hemisphere • Ensemble Mean and Spread (std dev) Variables – MSL pressure – 500 mb geopotential height – 1000 mb geopotential height – 6 hr accumulated precipitation – 2 m air temperature – 850 mb air temperature – 10 m wind speed – 250 mb wind speed – 500 mb relative vorticity – 1000 – 500 mb thickness Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 20 Example Products Probability of 10 m winds > 20 kt 2010080400 tau 72 Probability of Sig Wave Height > 8 ft 2010080400 tau 72 Ensemble Mean and Ensemble Spread 2010080400 tau 72 Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 21 MISSION SUCCESS Navy Risk Management Matrix Impossible Fleet Numerical… Very Difficult Moderately Difficult Problematic or Non-Issue Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 22 FNMOC and NUOPC • FNMOC is committed to the success of NUOPC. • Operational incorporation of the NOGAPS Ensemble into the North American Ensemble forecast System (NAEFS) at NCEP will constitute NUOPC IOC-1. • The data exchange requirements required to achieve NUOPC IOC-1 are stressing the IT infrastructures at both Navy and NOAA, but progress is being made. • We expect to leverage AFWA ensemble postprocessing, in accordance with the NUOPC Unified Ensemble Operations (UEO) Committee Report. • Most of the FNMOC NUOPC requirements identified in the UEO Report (personnel and computer hardware) remain unfunded. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 23 Global Multi-Model Ensemble Experience from NAEFS Baseline Skill of Raw NCEP Ensemble Statistical correction of Raw NCEP ensemble improves skill Addition of FNMOC (NOGAPS) Ensemble to the Statistically Corrected NCEP Ensemble Increases skill dramatically (by ~ 1.25 days) beyond 6 days Addition of CMC Ensemble to the Statistically Corrected NCEP Ensemble increases skill slightly more than the addition of NOGAPS (by ~1.75 days) Combination of the NCEP, FNMOC and CMC Ensembles produces the most skillful forecasts (~2.0 days better than the statistically corrected NCEP Ensemble) beyond 6 days From NCEP’s presentation “Evaluation for Inclusion of FNMOC Ensemble into NAEFS”, 1 Oct 2009, unpublished. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 24 NAEFS/NUOPC Data Transfer Status • 72 height/variable combinations for 0 to 384 hours every 6 forecast hours • Approximately 4.6 GB twice/day • Transfer begins 4 hr 30 min after analysis time, completes at FNMOC external server at 5 hr 30 min and completes at NCEP operations at 6 hr 30 min • GRIB2 format JPEG 2000 compression • Packaged as all variables/levels for each member/forecast tau (1300 files) Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 25 Near-Term FNMOC Ensemble Plans in Support of NUOPC • 9 band Ensemble Transform perturbations (Sep/Oct 2010) • Stochastic physics (stochastic kinetic energy backscatter) (Sep/Oct 2010) • Verification system (Nov/Dec 2010) • T159L42 (mid 2011), may be delayed to also include SemiLagrangian/Semi-Implicit formulation • Bias correction (mid 2011) Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 26 Results from Combined FNMOC and NCEP Global WW3 Ensemble • • • • • Based on comparison against ~325,000 Jason 1, Jason 2 and Envisat altimeter wave height observations. FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows more skill than FNMOC WW3 deterministic run for forecast lead times greater than 72 hours. FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows more skill than NCEP WW3 Ensemble for all lead times. Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3 Ensemble shows most skill of all for forecast lead times greater than 72 hours. Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3 Ensemble gains about 48 hours of skill relative to the NCEP WW3 ensemble. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 27 Ensembles - Ocean Circulation • Currently supporting Navy ops – 32 members of regional model with perturbations of surface fluxes and initial conditions – Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (EnTKF) approach – Primary application: adaptive sampling, i.e. where to direct measurement assets, such as gliders • Current Navy R&D – Mesoscale & coastal focus – Expansion of perturbations to include boundary conditions and bathymetry • Future – Coupled models (esp. regional / mesoscale) are viable candidates for ensemble methodologies Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… Model Transition Process Phase Item Resource Sponsor (Funding Category) Objective Demonstration & Validation Exploratory/ Advanced Tech. Development ONR/NRL/Other CNO N84 or Other Agent (6.4 RDT&E) (6.2 S&T) Initial Development Through Proof-OfConcept Complete Development Validation Demonstration in Simulated Ops review TRL Participants 2-3 ONR PIs NRL Developers Non-Navy S&T Fleet Numerical… CNMOC (6.4 RDT&E; (O&M,N) O&M,N) OPEVAL – Beta Run – OPTEST Full Operational Integration Operation & Maintenance Life-Cycle Support Technical Support & “Warranty” Service Journal, Publication or Technical Report Software Operations CNMOC Rapid Transition Process Requirements Deliverables Operational Implementation Source Code Model Transition Plan Validation Test Report 4-6 Final DOD-STD Documentation OPTEST Report 7-9 Administrative Model Oversight Panel Tech Validation Panel Chair, NRL Developer Upgrades and Fixes Implementation Panel Chair, FNMOC 10 FNMOC Configuration Control Board Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… FNMOC HPC Systems NAME TYPE CPUs MEMORY (GB) PEAK (TFLOPS) Disk (TB) FS1 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX FS2 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX ATOS2 IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s 438 645 2.2 40 Linux CAAPS IBM e1350s 148 272 0.7 10 Linux A2 OPAL Dell Linux Cluster System 928 1800 10.0 65 Linux A2 RUBY Dell Linux Cluster System 1168 1170 12.0 56 Linux A2 TOPAZ Dell Linux Cluster System 280 1200 3.0 16 Linux A2 EMERALD Dell Linux Cluster System 1224 3672 13.0 65 Linux A2 ZIRCON Dell Linux Cluster System TBD TBD TBD 20 Linux 4,698 ~9300 ~ 45 ~ 330 TOTAL OS Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space. FS = File Server / Cross Domain ATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System UNCLAS SECRET UNCLAS and SECRET TS/SCI Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 30 Summary • FNMOC is the U.S. Navy’s global NWP Center. • FNMOC operates a closely integrated suite of global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models in support of Fleet Safety and Warfighting Effectiveness. • NOGAPS, the FNMOC global NWP model, is competitive with other operational global models, and the only such model protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD IA standards. • The NOGAPS ensemble is currently being folded into NAEFS to constitute NUOPC IOC-1. • A formal and effective process is used to manage the transition of new science and technology from the R&D community into operations at FNMOC. • FNMOC is committed to vendor-neutral Linux Cluster architectures to meet its HPC infrastructure needs. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 31 Questions? Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…32 32