An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography

An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology
and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)
16 August 2010
Mike Clancy
Technical Director
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Fleet Numerical…
• The U.S. Navy’s Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Center
–
–
–
–
Global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models
Weather satellite imagery products
Tactical decision aids
High Performance Computing (HPC) at all levels of classification
(UNCLAS, SECRET, TOP SECRET)
– The only global NWP Center protected from cyberwarfare attack
to DoD Information Assurance (IA) Standards
– Closely partnered with the Marine Meteorology Division of NRL
(R&D support) and the Naval Oceanographic Office
(co-production of operational products)
...enabling fleet safety & warfighting effectiveness
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
2
Naval Meteorology & Oceanography
FNMOC is the Key Enabler
for the Top 3 CNMOC Priorities
Maritime Operations
Aviation Operations
Fleet Safety1 and Near-Term
Operational Readiness
Fleet Operations
Precise Time and Astrometry
National Missions
Navigation
ISR
Naval Special Warfare
Today’s Fight
Anti-Submarine Warfare
Navy Operations
Mine Warfare
1Keeping
the Navy’s new Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) safe
from weather threats is an area of growing concern.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
4
Organizational Profile
• Highly technical, educated, and warfare
experienced workforce consisting of military,
civilians, and contractors
– ~20 Officers
• 55% with MS Degree
• 25% will attend NPS next tour
• Wardroom includes: 1 UK Exchange Officer and 1
USAF Exchange Officer
– ~20 Enlisted
• 63% with Advanced Navy Specialty Training
• Several on Individual Augmentation (IA)
assignments overseas
– ~140 Government Civilians & Contractors:
• Predominantly Physical Science and IT specialties
(Meteorology, Oceanography, Computer Sciences)
• PhD – 3%, MS Degree - 23%, BS Degree - 34%
• ~$25M annual budget
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
5
Models
Surface Pressure and Clouds
Predicted by NOGAPS
• FNMOC operates a highly integrated and
cohesive suite of operational global and
regional weather and ocean models:
– Navy Operational Global Atmospheric
Prediction System (NOGAPS)
– Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale
Prediction System (COAMPS)
– Navy Atmospheric Variational Data
Assimilation System (NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR)
– Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System 15 km
(NAAPS)
10 km
– GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model
– WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model
5 km
– Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation
(NCODA) System
– Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)
0 km
60 m s-1
l~30 km
40 m s-1
Obs ~28 km
Mountain
Wave
Sierra
Owens
Valley
20 m s-1
0 m s-1
Cross section of temperature and wind speeds from
COAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Naval Meteorology and
Oceanography Concept of Operations
Linking Forecasts to Decisions
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
7
High-Level View of Navy Modeling
Architecture
Piracy Performance
Surface
Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB,
ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR)
Acoustic
Performance
Surface
Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS,
BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts)
Other ASW, MIW
and Ocean Products
Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP)
BonD Tier 1 Database
GFDN
WW3
COAMPS
Theater and OnScene Weather
and Ocean
Forecasting
NOGAPS
NAAPS
Sat Imagery
NAVO
Ocean Models
Fleet Numerical…
Ensemble
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
8
High-Level View of Navy Modeling
Architecture
Piracy Performance
Surface
Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB,
ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR)
Acoustic
Performance
Surface
Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS,
BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts)
Other ASW, MIW
and Ocean Products
Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP)
BonD Tier 1 Database
GFDN
WW3
COAMPS
Theater and OnScene Weather
and Ocean
Forecasting
NOGAPS
NAAPS
Sat Imagery
NAVO
Ocean Models
Fleet Numerical…
Ensemble
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
9
Navy Operational Global Atmospheric
Prediction System (NOGAPS)
Fleet Numerical…
Surface Pressure and Clouds from NOGAPS
Improvement of NOGAPS Forecast Skill
1
0.95
0.9
Forecast Skill
• State-of-the-art global
spectral model
• Run 4 times per day with
forecasts to 180 hours
• Provides lateral boundary
conditions for COAMPS
• Drives global WW3 at FNMOC
• Drives global ocean circulation
models at NAVO
• One of the leading tropical
cyclone track forecast models
in the world
• Developed and supported by
NRL
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
24 HR
48 HR
72 HR
Forecast Time
96 HR
120HR
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Modeling Changes in Past Year
• NAVDAS
– Local Area Coverage Winds
– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)
• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009)
• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)
• EFS
– Banded ET (Feb 2010)
– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)
– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)
• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)
• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)
• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10)
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation SystemAccelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR)
The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation
Monthly Averaged NOGAPS
SHEM TAU120 500 hPa Height
Anomaly Correlation by Year
Fleet Numerical…
NAVDAS-AR
Effective 28 September
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
2010 Atlantic (to date..7/26)
Homogeneous TC Forecast Error
Forecast Error (nm)
400
350
MODELS
300
NGPI
AVNI
GFDI
HWFI
TVCN
OFCL
NOGAPS
250
200
150
100
NOGAPS
GFS
GFDL
HWRF
Consensu
s+ECMWF
Official
50
0
Fleet Numerical…
24
48
72
96
28
19
14
10
120 Forecast Hour
4
Number of Forecasts
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
2010 Western North Pacific (to date..7/26)
Homogeneous TC Forecast Error
800
Forecast Error (nm)
700
600
NOGAPS
MODELS
500
NGPI NOGAPS
AVNI GFS
CONW Consensus
OFCL Official
400
300
+ECMWF
200
100
0
Fleet Numerical…
24
48
72
96
120
51
37
25
13
5
Forecast Hour
Number of Forecasts
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
2010 Eastern North Pacific (to date..7/26)
Homogeneous TC Forecast Error
Forecast Error (nm)
250
NOGAPS
200
MODELS
NGPI
AVNI
GFDI
HWFI
TVCN
OFCL
150
100
50
NOGAPS
GFS
GFDL
HWRF
Consensu
s+ECMWF
Official
0
Fleet Numerical…
24
48
72
96
120
73
54
40
27
18
Forecast Hour
Number of Forecasts
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
NOGAPS 850 mb Wind AC Scores
NOGAPS low-level wind fields have always been as good as, or
better than, GFS and others.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
16
NOGAPS 500 mb Height AC Scores
Though NOGAPS 500 mb height skill generally lags that of
GFS, there are months where it equals or betters GFS.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
17
Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)
•
•
•
•
•
Based on NOGAPS Forecasts, twice per
day to16 days, 20 members, T119L30
resolution
Ensemble Transform perturbations in 5
latitude bands
Also includes WW3 (WaveWatch III)
Forecasts, twice per day, 10 days, 20
members
Gridded mean and standard deviation
products for winds, air temp, pressure,
heights, humidity available via CAGIPS
and METCAST
Web Graphics of means and standard
deviations for standard WxMAP areas
and variables; plus probability of wind
speed exceeding 20, 35 and 50 kt, and
probability of wave height exceeding 4,
8, 12, 18 and 24 ft
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
18
Modeling Changes in Past Year
• NAVDAS
– Local Area Coverage Winds
– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)
• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009)
• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)
• EFS
– Banded ET (Feb 2010)
– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)
– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)
• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)
• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)
• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10)
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
WxMap EFS Products
• Ensemble Mean and Spread (stdev) Areas
– N. Atlantic, S. Atlantic, W. Pacific, E. Pacific, Conus, Europe,
Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Asia, Global, N. Hemisphere
• Ensemble Mean and Spread (std dev) Variables
– MSL pressure
– 500 mb geopotential height
– 1000 mb geopotential height
– 6 hr accumulated precipitation
– 2 m air temperature
– 850 mb air temperature
– 10 m wind speed
– 250 mb wind speed
– 500 mb relative vorticity
– 1000 – 500 mb thickness
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
20
Example Products
Probability of 10 m winds > 20 kt
2010080400 tau 72
Probability of Sig Wave Height > 8 ft
2010080400 tau 72
Ensemble Mean and
Ensemble Spread
2010080400 tau 72
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
21
MISSION SUCCESS
Navy Risk Management Matrix
Impossible
Fleet Numerical…
Very
Difficult
Moderately
Difficult
Problematic
or Non-Issue
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
22
FNMOC and NUOPC
• FNMOC is committed to the success of NUOPC.
• Operational incorporation of the NOGAPS Ensemble into
the North American Ensemble forecast System (NAEFS)
at NCEP will constitute NUOPC IOC-1.
• The data exchange requirements required to achieve
NUOPC IOC-1 are stressing the IT infrastructures at both
Navy and NOAA, but progress is being made.
• We expect to leverage AFWA ensemble postprocessing, in accordance with the NUOPC Unified
Ensemble Operations (UEO) Committee Report.
• Most of the FNMOC NUOPC requirements identified in
the UEO Report (personnel and computer hardware)
remain unfunded.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
23
Global Multi-Model Ensemble
Experience from NAEFS
Baseline Skill of Raw NCEP Ensemble
Statistical correction of Raw NCEP
ensemble improves skill
Addition of FNMOC (NOGAPS)
Ensemble to the Statistically
Corrected NCEP Ensemble
Increases skill dramatically (by
~ 1.25 days) beyond 6 days
Addition of CMC Ensemble to the
Statistically Corrected NCEP
Ensemble increases skill slightly
more than the addition of NOGAPS
(by ~1.75 days)
Combination of the NCEP,
FNMOC and CMC
Ensembles produces the most
skillful forecasts (~2.0 days better
than the statistically corrected
NCEP Ensemble) beyond 6 days
From NCEP’s presentation “Evaluation for Inclusion of FNMOC Ensemble into NAEFS”, 1 Oct 2009, unpublished.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
24
NAEFS/NUOPC Data Transfer Status
• 72 height/variable combinations for 0 to 384 hours every
6 forecast hours
• Approximately 4.6 GB twice/day
• Transfer begins 4 hr 30 min after analysis time,
completes at FNMOC external server at 5 hr 30 min and
completes at NCEP operations at 6 hr 30 min
• GRIB2 format JPEG 2000 compression
• Packaged as all variables/levels for each
member/forecast tau (1300 files)
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
25
Near-Term FNMOC Ensemble
Plans in Support of NUOPC
• 9 band Ensemble Transform perturbations (Sep/Oct 2010)
• Stochastic physics (stochastic kinetic energy backscatter)
(Sep/Oct 2010)
• Verification system (Nov/Dec 2010)
• T159L42 (mid 2011), may be delayed to also include SemiLagrangian/Semi-Implicit formulation
• Bias correction (mid 2011)
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
26
Results from Combined FNMOC and
NCEP Global WW3 Ensemble
•
•
•
•
•
Based on comparison against
~325,000 Jason 1, Jason 2 and
Envisat altimeter wave height
observations.
FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows
more skill than FNMOC WW3
deterministic run for forecast lead
times greater than 72 hours.
FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows
more skill than NCEP WW3
Ensemble for all lead times.
Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3
Ensemble shows most skill of all for
forecast lead times greater than 72
hours.
Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3
Ensemble gains about 48 hours of
skill relative to the NCEP WW3
ensemble.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
27
Ensembles - Ocean Circulation
• Currently supporting Navy ops
– 32 members of regional model with
perturbations of surface fluxes and
initial conditions
– Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
(EnTKF) approach
– Primary application: adaptive
sampling, i.e. where to direct
measurement assets, such as
gliders
• Current Navy R&D
– Mesoscale & coastal focus
– Expansion of perturbations to
include boundary conditions and
bathymetry
• Future
– Coupled models (esp. regional /
mesoscale) are viable candidates
for ensemble methodologies
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Model Transition Process
Phase
Item
Resource
Sponsor
(Funding
Category)
Objective
Demonstration &
Validation
Exploratory/
Advanced Tech.
Development
ONR/NRL/Other
CNO N84 or Other
Agent
(6.4 RDT&E)
(6.2 S&T)
Initial Development
Through Proof-OfConcept
Complete Development
Validation
Demonstration in
Simulated Ops
review
TRL
Participants
2-3
ONR PIs
NRL Developers
Non-Navy S&T
Fleet Numerical…
CNMOC
(6.4 RDT&E;
(O&M,N)
O&M,N)
OPEVAL
– Beta Run
– OPTEST
Full Operational
Integration
Operation &
Maintenance
Life-Cycle Support
Technical Support & “Warranty” Service
Journal, Publication
or Technical Report
Software
Operations
CNMOC
Rapid Transition Process
Requirements
Deliverables
Operational
Implementation
Source Code
Model Transition Plan
Validation Test Report
4-6
Final DOD-STD
Documentation
OPTEST Report
7-9
Administrative Model Oversight Panel
Tech Validation Panel
Chair, NRL Developer
Upgrades and Fixes
Implementation Panel
Chair, FNMOC
10
FNMOC
Configuration
Control Board
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
FNMOC HPC Systems
NAME
TYPE
CPUs
MEMORY
(GB)
PEAK
(TFLOPS)
Disk
(TB)
FS1
SGI ORIGIN 3900
256
256
0.7
30
TRIX
FS2
SGI ORIGIN 3900
256
256
0.7
30
TRIX
ATOS2
IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s
438
645
2.2
40
Linux
CAAPS
IBM e1350s
148
272
0.7
10
Linux
A2 OPAL
Dell Linux Cluster System
928
1800
10.0
65
Linux
A2 RUBY
Dell Linux Cluster System
1168
1170
12.0
56
Linux
A2 TOPAZ
Dell Linux Cluster System
280
1200
3.0
16
Linux
A2 EMERALD
Dell Linux Cluster System
1224
3672
13.0
65
Linux
A2 ZIRCON
Dell Linux Cluster System
TBD
TBD
TBD
20
Linux
4,698
~9300
~ 45
~ 330
TOTAL
OS
Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space.
FS = File Server / Cross Domain
ATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem
CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System
A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System
UNCLAS
SECRET
UNCLAS and SECRET
TS/SCI
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
30
Summary
• FNMOC is the U.S. Navy’s global NWP Center.
• FNMOC operates a closely integrated suite of global and
regional meteorological and oceanographic models in
support of Fleet Safety and Warfighting Effectiveness.
• NOGAPS, the FNMOC global NWP model, is competitive
with other operational global models, and the only such
model protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD IA
standards.
• The NOGAPS ensemble is currently being folded into
NAEFS to constitute NUOPC IOC-1.
• A formal and effective process is used to manage the
transition of new science and technology from the R&D
community into operations at FNMOC.
• FNMOC is committed to vendor-neutral Linux Cluster
architectures to meet its HPC infrastructure needs.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
31
Questions?
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…32
32