Meerjarenplan 2012-2015 Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid

Transcription

Meerjarenplan 2012-2015
Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid
27 januari 2012
Acroniem van het consortium - Acronym of the consortium:
SPRINT1
Promoter – coordinator:
Universiteit Hasselt - IMOB, Instituut voor Mobiliteit / Transportation Research Institute
Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6
3590 Diepenbeek
dr. Stijn Daniels
Tel.: 011/26.91.56, Fax: 011/26.91.99, E-mail: [email protected]
URL: www.imob.uhasselt.be
Consortium members:





1
Universiteit Hasselt – IMOB: Instituut voor Mobiliteit / Transportation Research Institute
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven – SADL: Divisie voor Ruimtelijke Informatieverwerking / Spatial
Applications Devision Leuven
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven – ETE: Onderzoeksgroep Energie, Transport en Milieu /
Energy, Transport & Environment
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven – CIB: Centrum voor Industrieel Beleid, Verkeer &
Infrastructuur / Centre for Industrial Management, Traffic and Infrastructure
Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek – VITO
Scientific and Policy relevant Research IN Traffic Safety
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
NEDERLANDSE SAMENVATTING ........................................................................................................... 4
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7.1
1.7.2
1.7.3
2
THE CONSORTIUM ............................................................................................................................ 21
2.1
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.3
2.4
3
Werkpakket 1: Data & Indicatoren .......................................................................................................................... 4
Werkpakket 2: Risico-analyse ................................................................................................................................. 6
Werkpakket 3: Menselijk gedrag met betrekking tot systeem componenten voertuig-milieu .................................. 8
Werkpakket 4: Ontwikkeling van verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen ....................................................................... 11
Werkpakket 5: Ranking en evaluatie van de maatregelen .................................................................................... 14
Werkpakket 6: Valorisatie ..................................................................................................................................... 17
Werkpakket 7: Projectmanagement ...................................................................................................................... 17
Externe aansturing van het Steunpunt door de opdrachtgever ........................................................................ 18
Interne projectorganisatie ................................................................................................................................. 18
Extern overleg op projecten werkpakketniveau ............................................................................................. 19
Composition of the consortium .............................................................................................................................. 21
Justification of the choice of the consortium ......................................................................................................... 21
Brief introduction of the participating research groups ..................................................................................... 21
Justification ....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Distribution of tasks among the entities and the partner, and the modus operandi .............................................. 23
Distribution of resources among the participating research groups ...................................................................... 24
THE TRAFFIC SAFETY POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE ............................................................................. 25
3.1
Aims and intended results of the Policy Research Centre .................................................................................... 25
3.1.1 General aims for a Policy Research Centre ..................................................................................................... 25
3.1.2 Specific aims for the Traffic Safety Policy Research Centre ............................................................................ 25
3.2
Synthesis: issues to be addressed in the Traffic Safety Policy Research Centre ................................................. 26
4
RESEARCH PROGRAMME .................................................................................................................. 27
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.3.1
4.3.2
4.3.3
4.3.4
4.3.5
4.3.6
4.3.7
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
5
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 27
Schematic representation of the research programme ......................................................................................... 27
Introduction of the content of the research programme ........................................................................................ 29
Work package 1: Data and Indicators .............................................................................................................. 34
Work package 2: Risk Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 42
Work package 3: Human behaviour in relation to system components vehicle-environment .......................... 54
Work package 4: Development of road safety measures................................................................................. 71
Work package 5: Ranking and evaluation of measures ................................................................................... 83
Work package 6: Valorisation ........................................................................................................................... 98
Work package 7: Project management ............................................................................................................ 98
Short term questions ........................................................................................................................................... 101
Transversal societal themes ............................................................................................................................... 102
Knowledge management .................................................................................................................................... 103
Method of evaluation and possible amendments to the programme .................................................................. 103
COMMUNICATION, VALORISATION AND QUALITY CONTROL ................................................................. 105
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Publication and valorisation of the scientific knowledge generated .................................................................... 105
How the results will be made available to the responsible minister .................................................................... 107
How the Policy Research Centre will implement consultation with and the participation of the Flemish
government and other concerned actors. ........................................................................................................... 108
The quality-assurance system (general measures to ensure research quality) .................................................. 109
Multiannual programme and budget
Theme: Traffic safety - Acronym: SPRINT
2
6
OVERZICHT VAN DE LOGISTIEKE EN MATERIËLE INBRENG (DUTCH) ..................................................... 110
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
7
Huisvesting van het Steunpunt ........................................................................................................................... 110
Mate waarin het Steunpunt een beroep kan doen op algemene diensten en faciliteiten van de deelnemende
entiteiten.............................................................................................................................................................. 110
Mate waarin leden van het omkaderend personeel tijd zullen besteden aan het Steunpunt .............................. 111
Eigen logistieke en materiële inbreng van de deelnemende entiteiten ............................................................... 112
PLANNING AND BUDGET.................................................................................................................. 114
7.1
7.2
Timing and allocation of personnel across the different tasks and researchers ................................................. 114
Budgeting of the expenditure of the assigned resources .................................................................................... 117
APPENDIX 3.A: REFERENCE LIST ............................................................................................................. 123
3
1 NEDERLANDSE SAMENVATTING
1.1 WERKPAKKET 1: DATA & INDICATOREN
In dit werkpakket worden verkeersveiligheidsdata en -indicatoren verzameld, geanalyseerd en
ontsloten. Op basis van de uitgevoerde analyses wordt een verkeersveiligheidsmonitor voor
Vlaanderen ontwikkeld, en publiceert het steunpunt het jaarrapport verkeersveiligheid.
Het werkpakket omvat 2 taken:
De Vlaamse verkeersveiligheidsmonitor
In dit project wordt een instrument ontwikkeld dat (1) harmonisatie van data, indicatoren en
analysemethodes voor de verkeersveiligheid in Vlaanderen mogelijk maakt; (2) de transfer van
onderzoeksresultaten van het Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid naar het beleid en de administratie
mogelijk maakt.
Indicatoren analyse
Het jaarrapport verkeersveiligheid geeft een actueel overzicht van de situatie op het vlak van
verkeersveiligheid in Vlaanderen. Een aparte analyse zal zich toespitsen op specifieke weggebruikers.
Door de jaarlijkse systematische publicatie van een basisset van indicatoren, kunnen besluiten
genomen worden over de evoluties van de situatie, de mate waarin doelstellingen worden bereikt, en
de beleidsimpact.
P ROBLEEMSTELLING
Verkeersveiligheid kan door tal van indicatoren worden weergegeven. In het steunpunt zullen
bestaande en nieuwe indicatoren onderzocht en ontwikkeld worden om het fenomeen beter te
begrijpen. Dit zal verder gaan dat de gebruikelijke indicatoren zoals ongevallenregistraties, die vooral
het eindeffect meten. Naar analogie met de monitoring van het Mobiliteitsplan Vlaanderen (Hermans,
2011), zullen ook performantie-, beleid- en contextuele indicatoren aan bod komen.
Dankzij de monitoring en analyse van een uitgebreide set van verkeersveiligheidsindicatoren, kunnen
de beïnvloedende factoren beter begrepen worden, en is een meer proactief beleid mogelijk. De mate
waarin doelstellingen worden bereikt en de effectiviteit van programma‟s en maatregelen worden
duidelijker.
Jarenlang heeft het departement MOW geïnvesteerd in de ontwikkeling en het beheer van relevante
databanken voor verkeersveiligheid. Daarbij werden GEO-ICT instrumenten ontwikkeld voor de
validatie, de verbetering en de actualisatie van de data (ongevallen locatie, verkeersborden, kwaliteit
van het wegdek, …). Er zal gezocht worden naar synergie tussen deze inspanningen voor
dataverzameling, indicatoren selectie en dataverwerking, en de onderzoeksresultaten van het
Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid.
De ontwikkeling van databanken en de ruimtelijke analyses van verkeersveiligheid gebeuren in een
GIS omgeving, en het Internet en het worldwide web maken de communicatie en data transmissie
mogelijk. Men kan dus stellen dat de verschillende componenten samen een specifiek
informatiesysteem voor verkeersveiligheid vormen. Echter, de conceptualisering van
verkeersveiligheid in de verschillende componenten van het informatiesysteem kan verschillend zijn
omwille van verschilllende percepties, indrukken of conventies. In een geavanceerd monitoringsysteem is er nood aan een semantische uitdieping van de concepten om verschillende
conceptualisaties met elkaar te associëren of integreren. Hiervoor dient een domein-specifieke
ontologie opgebouwd te worden die de concepten duidelijk definieert en met elkaar associeert.
D OELSTELLINGEN
•
•
EN BEL EIDSRELEVANTIE
Ontwikkeling van een semantisch referentiesysteem als fundering voor de betekenis van
termen en voor de vertaling tussen verschillende gebruikersgemeenschappen;
Harmonisatie van data, indicatoren en analysemethoden in het domein van verkeersveiligheid
in Vlaanderen;
4
•
•
•
Transfer van onderzoeksresultaten (nieuwe indicatoren, nieuwe evaluatie en
modelleringstechnieken) en expertise van het Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid naar het beleid en
de administratie;
Ontwikkeling van een geavanceerd Geo-ICT monitoring systeem voor verkeersveiligheid,
rekening houdend met bestaande databanken, instrumenten en systemen gebruikt bij de
Vlaamse overheid en waarbij een pragmatische interoperabiliteit nagestreefd wordt;
Publicatie van het jaarrapport verkeersveiligheid dat de actuele situatie op het gebied van
verkeersveiligheid op de Vlaamse wegen weergeeft, en de evolutie in termen van resultaat-,
performantie-, context- en beleidsindicatoren.
P ROJECTEN
In het eerste project ligt de nadruk op de ontwikkeling van een instrument, de veiligheidsmonitor voor
Vlaanderen. Het doel daarbij is om een actieve gemeenschap op te starten, waarin data,
analysetechnieken en resultaten worden ontwikkeld, toegepast, geëvalueerd, verfijnd en gedeeld. Dit
instrument wordt ontwikkeld in een GIS omgeving en laat nieuwe ontwikkelingen toe van bestaande
instrumenten in het domein van mobiliteit en verkeersveiligheid in Vlaanderen. Dat vereist een eigen
ontologie en semantiek in het domein van verkeersveiligheid, en data (en meta-data) harmonisatie.
Het instrument wordt geïntegreerd in een GIS, met semantische documentatie en communicatie
mogelijkheden (veel gestelde vragen, forum, …).
Het tweede project gaat over de evolutie van verkeersveiligheid, uitgedrukt in indicatoren. Dat wordt
als tastbaar resultaat gepubliceerd in het jaarrapport verkeersveiligheid. Dit rapport geeft inzicht in het
profiel van verkeersslachtoffers, de soorten ongevallen, de overtreders, de handhaving, enz. Een
aparte analyse zal zich toespitsen op specifieke doelgroepen zoals fietsers of kinderen. Bovendien
zal, door het systematisch gebruik van eenzelfde basis set van indicatoren, de evolutie verduidelijkt
worden, alsook de beleidsimpact en de mate waarin beleidsdoelstellingen worden bereikt.
J AARPLAN 2012
De volgende taken zijn gepland voor 2012:
-
Analyse van huidige data, indicatoren, instrumenten en systemen gebruikt bij MOW (taak 1.1
en 1.2);
Uitwerken van een eerste versie van de ontologie voor verkeersveiligheid (taak 1.1);
Toevoegen van resultaat-, performantie-, context –en beleidsinformatie en dataverzameling
(taak 1.2);
Publicatie van het jaarrapport verkeersveiligheid (taak 1.2)
5
1.2 WERKPAKKET 2: RISICO-ANALYSE
P ROBLEEMSTELLING
Het verbeteren van de verkeersveiligheid in Vlaanderen vereist gedetailleerd inzicht. De analyse van
data levert hierbij waardevolle informatie op. Gegeven de inspanningen die worden geleverd met
betrekking tot dataregistratie, is het van belang om ten volle gebruik te maken van de beschikbare
informatie en zoveel mogelijk hieruit te halen. Door het beschouwen van ongevallen- en
blootstellingsdata kan het relatieve veiligheidsniveau op verschillende locaties berekend worden. Door
ook infrastructurele kenmerken op te nemen in de analyse kan een nog volledigere
verkeersveiligheidsscore berekend worden voor een weglocatie. Bovendien kan nagegaan worden of
het verkeersveiligheidsniveau op een bepaalde locatie het aantal ongevallen dat verwacht kan worden
op zulke locatie al dan niet overstijgt.
Bovendien is het nuttig om verkeersveiligheid ook op een meer detailniveau te analyseren waarbij een
ongevallocatie (vb. een door verkeerslichten geregeld kruispunt) verder opgedeeld is in
locatiesegmenten. De mate van verwonding voor bepaalde groepen van weggebruikers alsook de
ongevallenpatronen verschillen mogelijk sterk tussen deze verschillende secties. Tot slot zou een
ruimtelijke benadering van verkeersveiligheid interessante inzichten opleveren betreffende de relatie
tussen verkeerskenmerken en de omliggende omgeving, de interacties tussen landgebruik,
transportinfrastructuur, gedrag van weggebruikers en hun veiligheidsimpact, alsook effecten van
verkeersmanagement- en verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen op meerdere niveaus.
D OELSTELLINGEN
EN BEL EIDSRELEVANTIE
De analyse van verkeersongevallen vormt een belangrijk instrument voor het verbeteren van de
verkeersveiligheid (zie vb. Vlaamse overheid, 2011). Dit houdt de toepassing van state-of-the-art
technieken in op bestaande data (zoals ongevallendata, blootstelling, infrastructurele kenmerken) en
de verdere studie van veelbelovende methodes zoals videoanalyses. In werkpakket 2 worden drie
projecten die hieraan gerelateerd zijn ontwikkeld.
Een veilige infrastructuur is één van de prioriteiten voor de Vlaamse overheid (zie vb. Vlaams
Parlement, 2009). Meer bepaald wordt de identificatie en rangschikking van secties met een hoge
ongevalconcentratie vermeld in de Europese richtlijn 2008/96/EC en een Vlaams Decreet uit juni
2011. Project 2.1 “veiligheidsmanagement van het netwerk” is erop gericht om beleidsmakers te
adviseren bij de identificatie van secties met een hoge ongevalconcentratie op het Vlaamse netwerk
(van autosnelwegen en gewestwegen) die een hoog veiligheidspotentieel hebben. Een tweede
doelstelling van project 2.1 is het bepalen van het veiligheidsniveau van een weg op een meer
gedetailleerde manier. Door middel van het verzamelen en combineren van gedetailleerde
infrastructurele kenmerken en blootstellingsdata zal een verkeersveiligheidsscore berekend worden
voor een selectie van wegsecties.
Waardevolle verkeersveiligheidsdata bestaan in Vlaanderen. Toch worden deze data nog niet volledig
benut. Project 2.2 “analyseren van ongevalpatronen door gebruik van manoeuvrediagrammen”
maakt gebruik van de exacte locatie van ongevallen en door middel van manoeuvrediagrammen kan
een beter inzicht geboden worden in de ongevalpatronen en hun voorkomen (zowel in het algemeen
als voor bepaalde types van weggebruikers) op verschillende secties van een weglocatie. Door
ongevallendata op een zodanig gedetailleerd niveau van weglocatiesecties te analyseren, wordt het
mogelijk om specifiekere aanbevelingen in termen van ontwerp van weginfrastructuur te doen.
Bruikbare resultaten uit de geplande gevalstudies (vb. rotondes, door verkeerslichten geregelde
kruispunten) kunnen opgenomen worden in bestaande richtlijnen (zie vb. AWV, 2009).
Vlaanderen streeft naar een dynamische samenleving (e.g. ViA, 2011). Dit impliceert een efficiënt,
veilig en aantrekkelijk transportsysteem. Het bestaande landschap (o.a. dichtbevolkte stadswijken
nabij autosnelwegafritten en toegangswegen) hindert dit echter in bepaalde mate. Dit vereist het
inzoomen op specifieke locaties om inzicht te verkrijgen in lokale omstandigheden, perceptie en
verplaatsingsgedrag en om de interactie tussen verkeer en de omgeving goed te begrijpen. Een ander
6
aspect van project 2.3 “ruimtelijke benadering van verkeersveiligheid” is het onderzoeken van het
potentieel van nieuwe dataverzamelings- en analysetechnieken zoals videobeelden verzameld voor
„mobile mapping‟ doeleinden. Tot slot wordt de overdraagbaarheid (van de resultaten van de
gevalstudie en de beoordelingsmethode voor andere locaties in Vlaanderen) bestudeerd.
J AARPROGRAMMA 2012
In 2012 zal onderzoek gebeuren met betrekking tot project 2.1, project 2.2 en project 2.3.
Beide taken in project 2.1 zullen van start gaan. Ten eerste zullen gevaarlijke wegsecties geselecteerd
worden (taak 2.1a). Meer bepaald zal een lijst bestaande uit gevaarlijke autosnelwegsegmenten in
Vlaanderen opgesteld worden in 2012. Dit vereist het bepalen van de databehoeften en de
verzameling van data. Daarnaast zullen state-of-the-art methodologieën bestudeerd en toegepast
worden om zo de meest gevaarlijke segmenten te identificeren en te rangschikken. Deze segmenten
zullen in detail bestudeerd worden om hun veiligheidspotentieel te bepalen. Ten tweede zal onderzoek
uitgevoerd worden in verband met de berekening van de verkeersveiligheidscore (taak 2.1b) voor een
bepaalde wegsectie. In het bijzonder zullen relevante infrastructuurelementen geïdentificeerd worden
en zullen methodes voor het combineren (of wegen) van informatie alsook voor validatie onderzocht
worden.
Project 2.2 analyseert ongevalpatronen aan de hand van manoeuvrediagrammen. In 2012 zal een
gevalstudie gebeuren. Meer bepaald zullen de ongevalkenmerken, locatiekenmerken en de exacte
positie van het ongeval bepaald worden voor een subset van locaties. Ook wordt een protocol
geformuleerd om de locatie in verschillende secties onder te verdelen. Tot slot worden de data
geanalyseerd en de resultaten besproken.
Project 2.3 handelt over een ruimtelijke benadering van verkeersveiligheid. Ten eerste zal een stateof-the-art overzicht opgesteld worden van de belangrijkste relevante parameters en van de mogelijke
(kwantitatieve en kwalitatieve) analysemethodes. Aangezien er gebruik wordt gemaakt van
gevalstudies in dit project, worden ook geschikte locaties en tijdstippen voor landelijke en stedelijke
gevalstudies bepaald. Deze omgevingen worden vervolgens bestudeerd aan de hand van lokale
observaties. In 2012 ligt de focus op „eye-tracking‟ technieken toegepast om het gedrag van
verschillende niet-gemotoriseerde doelgroepen te verklaren.
7
1.3 WERKPAKKET 3: MENSELIJK GEDRAG MET BETREKKING TOT
SYSTEEM COMPONENTEN VOERTUIG-MILIEU
P ROBLEEMSTELLING
De rol van de mens kan niet worden onderschat in de verkeersveiligheid. Recent onderzoek geeft aan
dat menselijke fouten tot maar liefst 75% bijdragen aan alle verkeersongevallen (Medina et al. 2004).
Het meeste onderzoek over menselijke fouten heeft daarom een benadering gevolgd die de persoon
centraal stelt. Niettemin is het vaak de wisselwerking tussen (ongepast) menselijk gedrag en de
andere systeemcomponenten (weginfrastructuur, omgeving, voertuig) die uiteindelijk leidt tot een
verkeersongeval. Daarom bestuderen meer en meer studies de verkeersveiligheid op de weg vanuit
een systeemperspectief, eerder dan elk van de onderliggende elementen individueel te bekijken. De
systeembenadering erkent dat feilbaarheid deel uitmaakt van de menselijke kenmerken en dat fouten
het onvermijdelijk gevolg zijn van ontoereikende omstandigheden die aanwezig zijn in complexe
systemen (zoals het wegverkeer)
Een algemeen bekende systeembeschrijving hiervoor is Reason‟s “Zwitserse kaas-model” voor het
veroorzaken van ongevallen (Reason, 1990). De systeembenadering van verkeersongevallen op de
weg stelt dat de fouten die mensen maken, het gevolg zijn van fouten-veroorzakende of latente
omstandigheden die aanwezig zijn in het (verkeers)systeem. Anders dan bij de persoonsbenadering,
worden menselijke fouten niet langer gezien als de voornaamste reden van ongevallen, maar als het
gevolg van de latente omstandigheden binnen het systeem (Salmon et al., 2005). Volgens het model
gebeuren de ongevallen wanneer de gaten in de verdediging van het systeem elkaar, in zeldzame
gevallen, zo opvolgen dat het traject van de aanloop naar het ongeval elk van de verschillende
verdedigingslagen kan doorbreken. In de meeste gevallen zal het traject van de aanloop naar een
ongeval echter gestopt worden door de verdedigingen die in elke verdedigingslaag van het systeem
ingebouwd zijn.
Figuur 2: Aanpassing van het “Zwitserse kaas-model” van Reason
Een algemeen bekende systeembeschrijving in de literatuur over de verkeersveiligheid, hier toegepast
op het Zwitserse kaas-model in Figuur 2, is de “bestuurder-omgeving-voertuig” benadering (Carsten et
al., 1989). Derhalve vinden verkeersongevallen plaats ten gevolge van een fout in een of meerdere
elementen (bestuurder, omgeving of voertuig) van het wegsysteem. Beleidsmakers moeten daarom
vanuit een holistisch standpunt kijken naar het verkeersveiligheidsprobleem en oplossingen vinden op
de verschillende niveaus van het verkeersveiligheidssysteem.
8
D OELEN
EN BELEIDSRELE VANTIE
Zoals beschreven in de probleemstelling, zijn innovatieve oplossingen nodig voor elk van de drie
dimensies (bestuurder, omgeving en voertuig) van het verkeersveiligheidssysteem om de “gaten te
vullen” in het Zwitserse kaas-model.
In project 3.1 ligt de nadruk op de menselijke gedragscomponent in het veiligheidssysteem. Meer
specifiek heeft dit project tot doelstelling om de relaties tussen ouders en hun kroost inzake
verkeersveiligheid te onderzoeken. Het wil specifieke beleidsaanbevelingen formuleren voor een
doeltreffend management van het ouderschap als strategie voor gedragsverandering in opvoedingsen bewustmakingscampagnes. Er is aangetoond dat ouders via hun rol als opvoeder een unieke
opportuniteit hebben om het gedrag van hun kinderen vorm te geven en te beïnvloeden. (Taubman –
Ben-Ari, Mikulincer, & Gillath, 2005). Bovendien, vermits ouders de voornaamste invloed uitoefenen bij
de socialisering van hun kinderen, blijven zij een impact hebben op het gedrag gedurende het hele
leven van hun kinderen (Bartholomew et al., 2006). Studies hebben aangetoond dat, wanneer zij
goed worden toegepast, de opvolging en het opleggen van beperkingen door ouders de
verkeersovertredingen, risicovol gedrag en het aantal voertuigongevallen van adolescenten kunnen
verminderen (Hartos et al., 2000, 2001). Daarom geloven we dat in de context van de beleidsstrategie
„levenslang leren‟ (FCVV, 2011; Vlaams Parlement, 2009) het onderzoek van deze relatie tussen
ouders en kinderen (de zogenaamde ouders-kroost socialisering) van cruciaal belang is.
Ook in de Europese beleidslijnen voor verkeersveiligheid 2011-2020 (Europese Commissie, 2010)
wordt meer aandacht besteed aan de rol van de begeleidende persoon in de rijopleiding. Positieve
attitudes, vaardigheden en gedrag aangeleerd door professionele leraars (bv. leerkrachten op school,
professionele rijinstructeurs) kunnen inderdaad versterkt (of verzwakt) worden als ouders het juiste
gedrag zelf tonen en toepassen (of niet). Sociale leertheorie heeft echter aangetoond dat een
positieve overdracht van attitudes, vaardigheden en gedrag afhankelijk is van een aantal voorwaarden
en dat dit niet automatisch verzekerd is. Daarom zullen we in dit project nagaan in hoeverre er aan
deze voorwaarden voldaan is en hoe beleidsmakers concrete acties kunnen ondernemen om het
socialiseringsproces tussen ouders en hun kroost te verbeteren.
Project 3.2 legt de nadruk op de wisselwerking tussen de omgeving en de gedragscomponent in
het verkeersveiligheidssysteem. Meer bepaald is het de doelstelling van dit project om een beter
inzicht te krijgen in de factoren die een ongeval veroorzaken en dit met behulp van de (videogebaseerde) observatie en analyse van verkeersconflicten en van normaal interactief gedrag op
geselecteerde delen van de weginfrastructuur. Het gebruik van technieken voor de observatie van
conflicten in plaats van klassieke ongevallengegevens wordt gemotiveerd door het feit 1) dat er
verschillende nadelen verbonden zijn aan het gebruik van ongevallengegevens om tijdig een inzicht te
krijgen in de oorzaken van ongevallen of de doeltreffendheid van veiligheidsmaatregelen, en 2) dat
nieuwe methoden en technieken voor de observatie van conflicten het stadium van maturiteit bereiken
en inzichten mogelijk maken die niet kunnen gerealiseerd worden door het klassiek onderzoek van
ongevalgebaseerde gegevens.
De relevantie voor beleidsmakers kan op verschillende manieren worden gemotiveerd. Eerst en vooral
wijst de oproep tot voorstellen voor het nieuwe Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid op de nood tot diepteanalyses van verkeersongevallen als een van de twee grote onderzoeksonderwerpen. Ten tweede
vraagt de oproep tot voorstellen expliciet dat er bijkomend onderzoek gebeurt naar de
doeltreffendheid van verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen. Dit project komt tegemoet aan beide
doelstellingen omdat 1) het de analyse van nieuwe datatypes (bijna-conflicten en normaal interactief
gedrag) onderliggend aan het veroorzaken van ongevallen mogelijk maakt, en 2) het toelaat om de
doeltreffendheid van verschillende types van verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen veel sneller in te
schatten dan met de klassieke benadering waarin voldoende ongevallengegevens (dikwijls voor
verschillende jaren) moeten verzameld worden vooraleer statistisch onderbouwde conclusies kunnen
getrokken worden.
Tenslotte, legt project 3.3 de nadruk op de wisselwerking tussen drie componenten van het
verkeersveiligheidssysteem: het gedrag van de weggebruiker, het voertuig en de infrastructuur.
Meer bepaald wordt de rode lijn in het project gevormd door het onderzoek naar de verwachte impact
op de verkeersveiligheid van een nieuwe elektrische transportmodus, namelijk de elektrische fiets. Het
project brengt eerst en vooral de beschikbare gegevens en kennis samen over functioneel
fietsgebruik, -veiligheid en –infrastrucuur in Vlaanderen. Deze informatie wordt aangevuld met nieuwe
gegevens, verzameld via GPS-logging en Stated Preference enquêtes. Gebaseerd op de empirische
9
analyse van deze informatie wordt vervolgens een verfijnd fietsmodel ontwikkeld dat kan geïntegreerd
worden in het Multi-modaal planningsmodel van Vlaanderen. Dit omvat eerst en vooral een
beschrijving van het fietsnetwerk en de ontwikkeling van een adequaat routekeuze model voor de
fietsmodus. Daaruit kunnen de weerstandsmatrices voor fietsverplaatsingen afgeleid worden die een
input leveren in de modale keuze en toelaten om het effect te simuleren van aanpassingen in het
fietsnetwerk op de modale keuze. Daarnaast kan op basis van de verzamelde gegevens de module
voor de modale keuze geüpdated en indien nodig verfijnd worden. Dit alles moet toelaten om een
kwantitatieve analyse te maken van de impact op de verkeersveiligheid van veranderingen in
functioneel fietsgebruik veroorzaakt door veranderingen in fietsen infrastructuurbeleid en een meer
verspreid gebruik van elektrische fietsen.
De relevantie van dit project voor de beleidsmakers is direct gerelateerd aan de oproep tot voorstellen
voor het nieuwe Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid vermits onderzoek naar nieuwe innovatieve
transporttechnologieën werd gevraagd. Ten tweede is de keuze voor elektrische transportmodi
gemotiveerd door de recente toegenomen belangstelling van beleidsmakers, zowel op regionaal als
op internationaal niveau, voor een snelle toename van de elektrificatie van transportmodi met het oog
op het verkrijgen van schonere en energie-efficiënte voertuigen voor de toekomst (bv. zie blz. 8 van
European Commission, 2010; blz. 37-38 van Vlaams Parlement, 2009). Bovendien heeft de Vlaamse
regering recent vijf proeftuinen opgestart om de innovatie en het gebruik van elektrische voertuigen
aan te moedigen. Hierbij wordt ook het belang van bijkomend onderzoek in dit domein benadrukt. Op
dit moment is het nog niet geweten wat de gevolgen zullen zijn voor de verkeersveiligheid van een
toepassing op grotere schaal van deze nieuwe transportmodi (Schoon & Huijskens, 2001). Tenslotte,
zal dit project met nieuwe data en kennis bijdragen aan de Multi-modale planningsmodellen voor
Vlaanderen, wat ex-ante evaluaties mogelijk maakt van de impact op verkeersveiligheid van
infrastructurele en andere maatregelen en trends zoals een toename van het elektrisch fietsverkeer.
J AARPLAN 2012
Project 3.3 gaat van start in 2012. Dit jaar zal in hoofdzaak besteed worden aan de voorbereiding van
de testpopulatie van elektrische fietsen, en een deel gericht literatuuronderzoek. Dit omhelst meer
concreet de volgende activiteiten:
-
-
Inventaris en keuzebepaling van technologische oplossingen voor gps-logging and data
management
Ontwikkeling van een plan van aanpak voor de installatie van de loggers
Voorbereiden van de samenstelling van de testpopulatie
o Screen van kanalen voor het vinden van testpersonen (Fietsersbond, fietswinkels,
enz.)
o Bepaling van een relevante samenstelling van de testpopulatie (leeftijd, sexe, gebruik
van de fiets, gezinssamenstelling, enz.)
o Opzetten van een procedure voor het recruteren van testpersonen
Literatuuroverzicht van GPS-gebaseerde gedragsanalyse
Voorbereiding van de dagboeken voor de testpopulatie
Voorbereidende ontwikkeling van de stated preference vragenlijsten
10
1.4 WERKPAKKET 4: ONTWIKKELING VAN
VERKEERSVEILIGHEIDSMAATREGELEN
P ROBLEEMSTELLING
Het verkeerssysteem in zijn geheel bestaat uit drie interagerende componenten: voertuigen,
weggebruikers en de wegomgeving. Elke verkeerssituatie kan omschreven worden als de interactie
tussen deze drie systemen (Wierwille et al., 2002). Een beruchte studie uitgevoerd door Sabey &
Taylor (1980), stelde vast dat in niet minder dan 96% van de gevallen, de zogenoemde menselijke
factor (i.e., de weggebruiker) beschouwd kan worden als een bijdragende component in het
plaatsvinden van een ongeval. In 65% van de gevallen zou onaangepast weggedrag zelfs de enige of
belangrijkste oorzakelijke factor zijn. Bij het onder handen nemen van het probleem van gevaarlijk
weggedrag beveelt het bekende Swiss Cheese Model (Reason, 1997) beleidsmakers inzake
verkeersveiligheid aan om een zogenoemde systeembenadering aan te nemen. In essentie
impliceert een systeembenadering dat met het oog op het succesvol monitoren van weggedrag, men
zou moeten vermijden om individuen geïsoleerd van de andere componenten binnen het
verkeerssysteem (i.e., voertuig en wegomgeving) te behandelen. Ondersteuning voor een
systeembenadering jegens het begrijpen en veranderen van menselijk gedrag komt van specialisten
binnen de gezondheids- en sociaal-psychologie (Bartholomew et al., 2006).
Verscheidene strategische documenten geven aan dat de Vlaamse Overheid zulk een
systeembenadering waardeert als een belangrijk beleidsgegeven (Departement MOW, 2003;
Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2009). Dit blijkt ondermeer uit de variëteit aan
maatregelen die worden voorgesteld om het aantal ongevallen, gewonden en doden terug te brengen.
Meer in detail rust het Vlaams beleid inzake de promotie en het behoud van de verkeersveiligheid op
vier basispilaren, i.e., wetgeving, ordehandhaving, techniek en educatie. Volgens Delhomme et al.
(2009) dienen wetgeving en ordehandhaving voornamelijk om af te schrikken: door middel van codes,
regels, beperkingen en bestraffingsmechanismen (boetes, strafpunten, intrekking van rijbewijs,
etcetera) wordt risicovol gedrag onder weggebruikers ontmoedigd.
Belangrijk is dat specialisten in de gedragspsychologie beweren dat afschrikking op zichzelf
onvoldoende blijkt om een duurzaam gewenst gedragspatroon te bewerkstelligen (Bartholomew et al.,
2006). Om ervoor te zorgen dat veilig gedrag duurzaam is, zouden weggebruikers daartoe zelfbereid en intrisiek gemotiveerd moeten zijn (Deci & Ryan, 1985). Het belang van maatregelen die
gericht zijn op het creëren van intrinsiek gemotiveerde weggebruikers wordt sterk benadrukt in
Vlaamse beleidsdocumenten (Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2009). Eerder dan
wetgeving en ordehandhaving worden zowel techniek als educatie aanzien als meer geschikt om
vrijwillig veilig gedrag te induceren (Delhomme et al., 2009).
Dit werpakket concentreert zich daarom op de technologische en educatieve beleidspilaren (het
aspect ordehandhaving zal dus niet afgedekt worden in dit werkpakket, maar zal behandeld worden in
project 5.1 en in werkpakket 5). Meer in het bijzonder zullen drie verschillende benaderingen inzake
gedragsbeïnvloeding (i.e., simultorgebaseerde training, voertuig-interne technologie en wegontwerp &
infrastructuur) onderzocht worden. Belangrijk vanuit een methodologisch standpunt is dat de drie
projecten binnen dit werkpakket allen een rijsimulator-component in hun opzet zullen voorzien.
Vergeleken met andere methoden (veldstudies, direkte wegobservaties, naturalistisch rijden) is
simulatoronderzoek veilig, adaptief, kostenefficiënt, gemakkelijk herneembaar en voorzien van de
mogelijkheid om gecontroleerde studies uit te voeren die op een wetenschappelijk zeer degelijke
manier geëvalueerd kunnen worden (Fisher et al., 2011). Ten slotte zal doorheen dit werkpakket de
notie ex-ante evaluatie centraal staan. Zoals aangegeven door Delhomme et al. (2009, p.23) is het
belangrijk voor overheden om op tijd te weten of investeringen al dan niet de moeite waard zijn, zodat
beschikbare budgetten zo goed mogelijk kunnen worden gespendeerd.
D OELEN
Dit werkpakket bevat drie projecten die het nut onderzoeken van educatieve en technologische
strategieën die bestuurders intrinsiek zouden kunnen motiveren tot veilig gedrag. De
geselecteerde strategieën zullen onderworpen worden aan een ex-ante evaluatie in een simulatorgebaseerd opzet. Over de drie projecten zullen verschillende bestuurderssegmenten bestudeerd
11
worden. Project 4.1 is gesitueerd binnen de educatieve beleidszuil en zal een simulator-gebaseerde
zelf-commentaar training met het oog op verbeterde gevaardetectievaardigheden bij jonge
onervaren bestuurders voorstellen, implementeren en evalueren. Project 4.2 houdt verband met de
technologische beleidszuil en meer specifiek met de toepassing van verkeerssignalisatie en andere
soorten begeleidende verkeersmaatregelen in de nabijheid van hoogbelastende situaties (zoals
werfzones op snelwegen), met het oog op het (opnieuw) alert maken van weggebruikers en het
oproepen van gepast rijgedrag. Project 4.3 ressorteert ook onder de technologische beleidszuil, maar
hier ligt de focus meer in het bijzonder op wegontwerp en infrastructuur.
Project 4.1
Project 4.1 is gesitueerd binnen de educatieve beleidszuil en heeft zijn startpunt in enkele van de
meest recente ontwikkelingen binnen het domein van educatie van bestuurders. Over de laatste jaren
zijn zogenoemde cognitief-perceptuele trainingsprogramma‟s enorm in aantal toegenomen onder
impuls van de Goals for Driving Education (GDE) matrix (Hatakka et al., 2002). Cognitief-perceptuele
programma‟s focussen op hogere orde vaardigheden en meer specifiek op informatieverwerking,
gevaardetectie, omgevingsbewustzijn, aandachtscontrole, tijdsverdeling en zelf-calibratie (Senserrick
& Haworth, 2005). Deze programma‟s zijn meer in het bijzonder gericht op de doelgroep van jonge
onervaren bestuurders, aangezien het aangetoond is dat zij significant slechter presteren op dit
soort hogere orde cognitief-perceptuele vaardigheden in vergelijking met meer ervaren bestuurders
(Whelan et al., 2002). De meeste bestaande trainingsprogramma‟s hebben foto‟s (Pollatsek et al.,
2006b), videobeelden (Chapman et al., 2002) en on-road commentaar (Crundall et al., 2010) gebruikt
als trainingsmateriaal en bleken positieve maar slechts beperkte effecten te hebben op gevaardetectie
bij onervaren bestuurders. Interessant hierbij is dat binnen een degelijke virtuele omgeving, simulatorgebaseerde training enkele moeilijkheden verbonden aan de hierboven genoemde trainingsmethoden
kan overkomen. Bijvoorbeeld, foto‟s en videobeelden als trainingsmateriaal zijn minder interactief en in
veel van de tot dusver uitgevoerde trainingsstudies komt de manier waarop men met gevaar omgaat
al helemaal niet aan bod. Bijgevolg is het zo dat, alhoewel deelnemers aan dergelijke
trainingsprogramma‟s gevaren sneller detecteren, deze slechts minimaal verbeteren daar waar het
aankomt op hoe men gepast op de opgespoorde gevaren dient te reageren.
In navolging van de laatste trend waarbij simulatoren meer en meer ingezet worden als educatieve
hulpmiddelen binnen de (privé)sector aangaande het trainen van rijvaardigheid (Fisher et al., 2011;
Groot et al., 2001), zal dit project (1) een simulatorgebaseerde zelf-commentaar training voorstellen en
implementeren die als bedoeling heeft onervaren bestuurders te verbeteren in hun gevaarperceptie
vaardigheden, en (2) een follow-up survey aangaande het rijverleden om na te gaan in welke mate de
training transfereert en het effect behouden blijft.
Het belang van het trainen van cognitief-perceptuele vaardigheden komt ondermeer van de bevinding
e
ste
dat ongevalsaantallen verdubbelen tussen het 5 en het 95 percentiel op gevaarperceptie scores
(Quimby et al., 1986). Daarnaast zijn (GDE-gebaseerde) educatieve strategieën die toegespitst zijn op
jonge onervaren bestuurders een voorname beleidsprioriteit (Departement MOW, 2003; Departement
MOW, 2008).
Project 4.2
Project 4.2 houdt verband met de technologische beleidszuil en meer specifiek met de toepassing van
verkeerssignalisatie en andere soorten begeleidende verkeersmaatregelen in de nabijheid van
hoogbelastende situaties (zoals werfzones op snelwegen), met het oog op het (opnieuw) alert maken
van weggebruikers en het oproepen van gepast rijgedrag. Begeleidende verkeersmaatregelen kunnen
allerhande vormen aannemen, gaande van allerlei soorten wegmarkeringen zoals transversale
trilstrooken, tot meer traditionele verkeerstekens zoals adviserende snelheidslimieten,
trajectbegeleidende (vis)graatmarkeringen en aflijningen, etcetera. Meer en meer bekend zijn de
zogenoemde digitale informatiepanelen. Eén van de meest recente trends in het domein van
operationeel verkeersmanagement, is het gebruik van zogenaamde variabele of dynamische
informatieborden. Deze kunnen bijzonder nuttig zijn in situaties waar een dynamische regeling van
snelheid gewenst is, zoals bijvoorbeeld, in het geval van wegenwerken in een snelwegomgeving.
Dit project stelt een experiment voor dat plaats zal vinden in de rijsimulator. Rijsimulatoren bieden de
mogelijkheid om zowel de mentale toestand als het rijgedrag van bestuurders te bestuderen en het
12
effect van bijkomende begeleidende maatregelen zoals markeringen, borden en displays te verifiëren
in een veilige en gecontroleerde omgeving. In nauw overleg met het Agentschap Wegen en Verkeer
en afhankelijk van de technische uitvoerbaarheid zullen zowel de specifieke begeleidende
maatregelen of ingrepen, als de specifieke verkeerssituaties en de doelpopulatie(s) die getetst moeten
worden, bepaald worden. In termen van de te testen verkeerssituaties, zouden werfzones in een
snelwegomgeving een te onderzoeken potentiële kandidaat kunnen zijn. In termen van te
onderzoeken testsamples zouden verschillende bestuurdersprofielen een optie kunnen zijn, gaande
van jongeren tot volwassen of oudere bestuurders, zowel als professionele bestuurders zoals
vrachtwagenchauffeurs.
De relevantie van dit project kan afgeleid worden van het feit dat het Vlaams beleid de belangrijkheid
van een “hoogwaardig verkeerssysteem” (“hoogwaardig verkeerssysteem”; Departement MOW, 2008;
Vlaams Parlement, 2010) benadrukt. Het adequaat ontwerp van infrastructuur is één van de
belangrijkste precondities voor de ontwikkeling van een veiliger verkeerssysteem. Infrastructuur zou
weggebruikers moeten informeren over (on)verwachte verkeerscondities of conflicten en het gewenste
gedrag aanmoedigen, daarbij steeds rekening houdend met de capaciteiten en beperkingen van de
mens. Daarnaast biedt de simulator de mogelijkheid tot ex-ante evaluaties, i.e., evaluaties van
maatregelen die nog niet geïmplementeerd zijn. Bijkomende begeleidende maatregelen kunnen
alsdus eerst geëvalueerd worden alvorens enige defintieve beslissingen gemaakt moeten worden.
Deze evaluaties kunnen plaatsvinden op korte termijn en kunnen relatief snel uitgevoerd worden. Dit
zal van groot belang zijn om toekomstige beleidsintenties te onderbouwen in de juiste richting, en dat
op een snelle en efficiënte manier (Dutch Department of Finances, 2003).
Project 4.3
Project 4.3 houdt ook verband met de technologische beleidszuil, met de focus in dit project gericht op
wegontwerp en infrastructuur. De Vlaamse (Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2009 &
2010), Federale (FCVV, 2009 & 2011), en Europese overheden (European Commission, 2010)
formuleerden beleidsintenties gebaseerd op een variëteit aan infrastructurele maatregelen om de
gestelde doelstellingen inzake verkeersveiligheid te realiseren. Mogelijke maatregelen zijn de
verbetering en uitbreiding van voetgangers- en fietsersfaciliteiten, de implementatie van dynamisch
verkeersmanagement, de optimalisatie van signalisatie in werkzones en tunnels, de ontwikkeling van
zelf-verklarende en vergevingsgezinde wegen opdat het wegnetwerk correct kan worden
gecategoriseerd, etcetera.
Samen met AWV zal beslist worden welke maatregelen er geëvalueerd kunnen worden. In dit project
wordt een dubbele aanpak voor de ex-ante evaluatie van een specifieke maatregel voorgesteld: een
simulatorexperiment en een voor- en na veldstudie m.b.t. de testsetting.
Ex-ante of proactieve evaluatie van dergelijke maatregelen wordt internationaal aanbevolen
(AASHTO, 2010; ETSC, 1997; SafetyNet 2009c (p.24); PIARC, 2003 (p.128)) omdat het
beleidsmakers toelaat om (1) beter inzicht te verkrijgen omtrent de effecten van beleidsintenties, te
leveren prestaties en middelen te gebruiken, (2) richting te geven aan strategische beslissingen in de
fase van beleidsvoorbereiding, en (3) rekenschap geven en nemen van het uitgevoerde beleid (Dutch
Department of Finances, 2003).
13
1.5 WERKPAKKET 5: RANKING EN EVALUATIE VAN DE MAATREGELEN
P ROBLEEMSTELLING
Binnen het ViA heeft de Vlaamse Overheid amibiteuze doelstellingen voorop gesteld om de
verkeersveiligheid te verbeteren. In het publieke debat alsook in de wetenschappelijke literatuur
worden heel wat maatregelen naar voren geschoven. Als een gevolg daarvan worden beleidsmakers
geconfronteerd met het moeilijke probleem om de relatieve meerwaarde van deze verschillende
maatregelen onderling te evalueren alsook een keuze te maken tussen deze mogelijke maatregelen
zodat de vooropgestelde objectieven op de meest efficiënte wijze worden gehaald en op een manier
die door het brede publiek wordt geaccepteerd.
In het oproepdocument voor het nieuwe Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid wordt daarom expliciet de
noodzaak vermeld om verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen te evalueren. Volgens het oproepdocument
dienen ook nieuwe financieringsmechanismes, andere dan de publieke financiering, verkend te
worden. Beide aspecten worden in dit werkpakket behandeld.
D OELEN
De doelstelling van dit werkpakket bestaat erin om verschillende verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen te
evalueren en een rangschikking op te stellen van maatregelen die door het brede publiek
geaccepteerd worden teneinde bij te dragen aan de vooropgestelde verkeersveiligheidsdoelstellingen
in Vlaanderen en daarbij tegelijkertijd ervoor te zorgen dat de beschikbare middelen op de best
mogelijke manier worden aangewend. Door een diepgaande evaluatie uit te voeren. zullen we zorgen
voor een gefundeerde onderbouwing van het Vlaams beleid op deze domeinen.
We beschouwen drie grote categorieën van verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen: handhaving (publieke en
private), infrastructurele maatregelen en educatieve sensibiliseringscampagnes. Daarnaast
introduceren we het concept „amenability to treatment‟ (of vrij vertaald: de opportuniteit tot het nemen
van een bepaalde maatregel) teneinde beleidsmakers te ondersteunen in het besluitvormingsproces.
Het leidmotief binnen dit werkpakket is de effectiviteit en efficiëntie van
verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen.
Zoals in meer detail wordt gemotiveerd in de projectbeschrijvingen corresponderen deze drie
categorieën met belangrijke invalshoeken voor verkeersveiligheid zoals die worden vooropgesteld
door de Vlaamse Overheid (Vlaams Parlement, 2009; Departement MOW, 2008). Het onderzoek
behandelt daarnaast ook de financiering van maatregelen (door middel van het
verkeersveiligheidsfonds).
Meer specifiek worden volgende projecten gedefinieerd:
In project 5.1 ligt de focus op handhaving. In Belgie worden de inkomsten t.g.v. verkeersboetes
toegewezen aan politiezones op basis van vastgelegde criteria. Elke politiezone kan deze inkomsten
gebruiken voor wel afgeleide taken. Voor sommige prioritaire acties zijn extra fondsen beschikbaar.
Dit project tracht een antwoord te zoeken op de volgende concrete vragen gerelateerd aan het
efficiënt gebruik van deze middelen:
a) Wat is de meest efficiënte allocatie van de inkomsten uit verkeersboetes over de verschillende
politiezones en de verschillende taken?
b) Is er een rol weggelegd voor private handhaving in een efficiënt verkeersveiligheidsbeleid?
In project 5.2 ligt de focus op het concept „amenability to treatment‟ (Elvik, 2008c), of vrij vertaald: de
opportuniteit tot het nemen van een bepaalde maatregel. We stellen een algemeen kader voor om een
keuze te maken uit verschillende verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen. Ten eerste wordt de omvang van
het verkeersveiligheidsprobleem gemeten en de publieke aanvaarding om er iets aan te doen. Deze
kunnen gebruikt worden om te beslissen of men een specifiek verkeersveiligheidsprobleem wenst aan
te pakken of niet. Ten tweede, wanneer dit antwoord positief is, kan het concept „amenability to
treatment‟ helpen om te bepalen welke maatregelen meest aangewezen zijn. Daarbij worden drie
belangrijke elementen in overweging genomen:
14



Effectiviteit: in hoeverre leidt een maatregel tot de vooropgestelde doelen?
Publieke aanvaarding: wordt de maatregel ondersteund door de bevolking en zijn ze bereid
hem te accepteren?
Kosten: wat is de kostprijs van de maatregel?
We integreren de beschikbare expertise over deze drie elementen en stellen een bruikbaar
evaluatiekader voor dat toelaat om op een eenvoudige manier de sterktes en zwaktes van specifieke
maatregelen te evalueren.
In project 5.3 ligt de focus op de evaluatie van infrastructurele verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen.
Heel wat inspanningen worden immers genomen om de Vlaamse weginfrastructuur te verbeteren
teneinde de verkeersveiligheid te verhogen. Echter, het is niet altijd goed geweten wat precies de
effecten op de verkeersveiligheid zijn van deze genomen infrastructuurmaatregelen. Ex-post evaluatie
van infrastructurele ingrepen is daarom noodzakelijk om eventuele bijsturingen van maatregelen te
kunnen doen en om lessen te trekken naar de toekomst. Bovendien kunnen ex-ante en ex-post
evaluatie helpen om na te gaan of de beschikbare middelen efficiënt ingezet worden rekening
houdend met de beleidsdoelen die men heeft vooropgesteld. In dit project zullen we daarom
wijzigingen in de weginfrastructuur en het beheer ervan evalueren in termen van hun effectiviteit en de
kosten en baten voor het geheel van de Vlaamse gemeenschap. Waar relevant zullen we aandacht
hebben voor de ruimere netwerkeffecten van lokale maatregelen die kunnen ontstaan wanneer lokale
maatregelen leiden tot herroutering van verkeer naar andere delen van het netwerk.
Tot slot, in project 5.4, ligt de focus op de evaluatie van de effectiviteit van educatieve
sensibiliseringsprogramma‟s. Dit soort programma‟s hebben recent in aandacht gewonnen onder
de impuls van de ruimere verspreiding van de Goals for Driving Education (GDE) matrix (Hatakka et
al., 2002). Deze programma‟s focussen op hogere orde vaardigheden en spitsen zich toe op de
motivationele aspecten van rijgedrag. Echter, ondanks hun toenemende populariteit ook in
Vlaanderen is er weinig geweten over hun effectiviteit. Het is daarom aangewezen om een evaluatie
van dit soort programma‟s uit te voeren zoals ook aangegeven in de beleidsnota Mobiliteit en
Openbare Werken 2009-2014 (Vlaams Parlement, 2009) teneinde hun meerwaarde in te kunnen
schatten. In dit project wordt voorgesteld om het Vlaamse educatieve sensibiliseringsprogramma
„Verkeersgetuigen‟ te evalueren. Verkeersgetuigen is een educatief programma gericht op scholen
waarbij verkeersslachtoffers getuigen over hun ervaringen. Het resultaat is een effectevaluatie op
basis waarvan beleidsaanbevelingen kunnen opgesteld worden om bestaande of nieuwe educatieve
programma‟s te verbeteren.
J AARPLAN 2012
In 2012 worden volgende onderzoeksactiviteiten gepland:
Voor project 5.1: dit project dat handelt over de effectiviteit en efficiëntie van
verkeersveiligheidshandhaving zal volledig worden uitgevoerd in 2012. Alle onderzoeksactiviteiten die
voor dit project worden gepland worden daarom uitgevoerd in 2012.
Voor project 5.2 over het concept „amenability to treatment‟ worden nog geen onderzoeksactiviteiten
gepland in 2012. Dit project wordt pas opgestart in de tweede helft van 2014.
Voor project 5.3 dat handelt over de evaluatie van infrastructurele verkeersveiligheidsmaatregelen zal
in 2012 een topic voor een eerste case study worden geselecteerd in overleg met de opdrachtgever.
Daarnaast voorzien we in 2012 tevens reeds een deel van de dataverzameling voor deze case, alsook
enkele eerste analyses op de verzamelde data.
Tot slot, voor project 5.4 dat handelt over de effectiviteit van educatieve sensibiliseringsprogramma‟s
zullen de eerste onderzoeksactiviteiten reeds worden opgestart in 2012 en vervolgens verder gezet in
2013. We beogen de evaluatie van het programma „Verkeersgetuigen‟. Meerbepaald plannen we de
ontwikkeling van het onderzoeksdesign voor de effectevaluatie in 2012. Rekening houdend met de
timing van de educatieve campagne zelf zal echter gestreefd worden naar een synchronisatie van de
onderzoeksactiviteiten met de feitelijke uitrol van de campagne. Ze kunnen immers niet los gezien
worden van elkaar.
15
16
1.6 WERKPAKKET 6: VALORISATIE
Het opleveren van onderzoeksrapporten is een noodzakelijke, maar onvoldoende voorwaarde in het
kader van de doelstellingen van een Steunpunt Beleidsrelevant Onderzoek. Het louter produceren van
onderzoeksrapporten leidt hoogstwaarschijnlijk uitsluitend tot kennisontwikkeling bij een beperkte
groep van ingewijden. Daarom wordt een communicatiestrategie opgezet die erop gericht is om de
onderzoeksresultaten zoveel mogelijk te laten doorstromen naar de eindgebruikers. De Vlaamse
overheid heeft evenwel ook uitdrukkelijk aangegeven dat beleidsrelevant onderzoek ook
wetenschappelijk onderzoek zijn, wat er ondermeer op neerkomt dat het onderzoek in
overeenstemming moet zijn met de eisen of regels van de wetenschap. De beleidsgerichte en
wetenschappelijke communicatie van het onderzoekswerk zal op verschillende manieren gebeuren.
Met valorisatie bedoelen we het gebruik, voor sociaal-economische doeleinden, van de resultaten
van publiek gefinancierd onderzoek. Valorisatie heeft te maken met de directe en indirecte opbrengst
van investeringen van de publieke sector in onderzoek en ontwikkeling. In het perspectief van een
Steunpunt Beleidsrelevant Onderzoek kunnen we valorisatie bijgevolg interpreteren als de transfer
van onderzoeksresultaten naar de eigenlijke implementatie binnen het Vlaamse
verkeersveiligheidsbeleid.
Valorisatie en disseminatie zijn bijgevolg nauw met elkaar verbonden. Een doeltreffende
disseminatiestrategie draagt duidelijk bij tot de valorisatie van het geleverde onderzoek. Niettemin
betekent een succesvolle valorisatie méér dan het louter communiceren van onderzoeksresultaten. De
activiteiten van het Steunpunt Verkeersveiligheid m.b.t. valorisatie en disseminatie worden in detail
beschreven in hoofdstuk 5.
1.7 WERKPAKKET 7: PROJECTMANAGEMENT
Het Steunpunt wordt aangestuurd volgens het model voorgesteld in onderstaande figuur. Dit model
gaat uit van de beheersstructuur die wordt beschreven in de modelbeheersovereenkomst. Het model
beschrijft zowel de externe aansturing van het Steunpunt door de opdrachtgever als de interne
projectorganisatie.
Figure 1: Externe & Interne projectorganisatie
17
1.7.1 EXTERNE AANSTURING VAN HET STEUNPUNT DOOR DE OPDRACHTGEVER
De strategische doelstellingen van het Steunpunt, evenals het globale tijdskader waarbinnen deze
dienen te worden nagestreefd of verwezenlijkt, worden opgenomen in het meerjarenplan dat als
bijlage bij de beheersovereenkomst wordt gevoegd. Jaarlijks worden een jaarplan en een begroting
opgesteld volgens de modaliteiten zoals aangegeven in de modelbeheersovereenkomst. Jaarlijks
worden eveneens een jaarverslag en een financieel verslag opgesteld, eveneens volgens de
modaliteiten in de modelbeheersovereenkomst.
De stuurgroep is het forum waarop het strategische niveau en het onderzoeksniveau overleg plegen.
Zoals voorzien in de modelbeheersovereenkomst, staat de stuurgroep de beleidsraad bij in de
inhoudelijke aansturing van de werking van het Steunpunt. De samenstelling van de stuurgroep zal
gebeuren zoals voorzien in de modelbeheersovereenkomst. Er zal met de diensten van de functioneel
bevoegde minister overleg gepleegd worden in verband met het aantal vertegenwoordigers vanuit het
Steunpunt.
De beleidsraad Mobiliteit en Openbare Werken waakt over de afstemming tussen en de
doorstroming van en naar Steunpunt en beleid. Dit houdt participatie in agendasetting en
programmering in, maar ook zorg voor doorstroming, verwerking en gepaste opvolging van het
beleidsrelevant onderzoek naar het beleid en de zorg voor geschikte absorptiecapaciteit (binnen het
bestaande personeelskader van de Vlaamse administratie). Deze taak wordt uitgevoerd door de
vertegenwoordiger van het functioneel bevoegd beleidsdomein uit de beleidsraad en de
vertegenwoordiger van de functioneel aansturende minister uit de beleidsraad. De promotorcoördinator zal op vraag van de beleidsraad het Steunpunt op een beleidsraad vertegenwoordigen.
1.7.2 INTERNE PROJECTORGANISATIE
De interne projectorganisatie werkt op 3 niveau‟s: projecten, werkpakketten en het Steunpunt als
geheel. Het Steunpunt omvat 5 inhoudelijke (WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5, zie deel 3) en 2
ondersteunende werkpakketten (WP6 valorisatie en WP7 management) met telkens een
werkpakketleider. Elk van de 5 inhoudelijke werkpakketten is onderverdeeld in een aantal projecten
met een projectverantwoordelijke op senior-niveau.
A. S TEUNPUNT ALS GEHEEL
Het bestuur van het Steunpunt wordt opgedragen aan het Dagelijks Bestuur. Het Dagelijks Bestuur
wordt (conform de modelbeheersovereenkomst) belast met de volgende taken:
1. het vaststellen van een institutionele langetermijnstrategie;
2. de bewerkstelliging van een structurele interactie tussen de onderzoekers en
onderzoeksgroepen, over de betrokken instellingen heen;
3. de bewerkstelliging van een structurele betrokkenheid van de onderzoeksgroepen bij de
beslissingen op het vlak van:
a. het institutioneel concipiëren van het Steunpunt,
b. de inhoud van het georganiseerde wetenschappelijk onderzoek;
4. het uitbouwen van structurele interactie met andere Steunpunten voor Beleidsrelevant
Onderzoek, waarvan de opdrachten inhoudelijke raakpunten vertonen met deze van het
Steunpunt.
De samenstelling van het Dagelijks Bestuur is als volgt:








Stijn Daniels (UHasselt-IMOB)
Thérèse Steenberghen (KUL-SADL)
Elke Hermans (UHasselt-IMOB)
Inge Mayeres (VITO)
Kris Brijs (UHasselt-IMOB)
Tom Brijs (UHasselt-IMOB)
Edith Donders (UHasselt-IMOB)
Stef Proost (KUL-ETE)
(promotor-coördinator)
(werkpakketleiders)
18



Yves De Weerdt (VITO)
Chris Tampère (KUL-CIB)
Tim De Ceunynck (UHasselt-IMOB)
(projectleiders)
(doctorandus)
Het Dagelijks Bestuur kan desgewenst bijkomende deskundigen uitnodigen.
Het Dagelijks Bestuur zal een intern huishoudelijk reglement opstellen met betrekking tot de interne
organisatie van zijn activiteiten en de besluitvorming.
Alle werkpakketleiders maken deel uit van het Dagelijks Bestuur en alle deelnemende
onderzoeksgroepen aan de betrokken instellingen zijn vertegenwoordigd. Het voorzitterschap van het
dagelijks bestuur berust bij de promotor-coördinator. Het secretariaat wordt waargenomen door de
betrokken doctorandus.
De operationele leiding van het Steunpunt berust bij de promotor-coördinator. De promotorcoördinator heeft naar de Vlaamse overheid toe de rol van vertegenwoordiger en uniek aanspreekpunt
van het Steunpunt. Binnen het consortium is de promotor-coördinator gemandateerd om de dagelijkse
leiding van het Steunpunt op te nemen. De promotor-coördinator is aanspreekbaar en
verantwoordelijk tegenover de Vlaamse overheid als opdrachtgever. De promotor-coördinator
engageert zich ervoor om deze rol op te nemen voor de volledige erkenningstermijn van het
Steunpunt.
De promotor-coördinator wordt bijgestaan door een deeltijdse projectsecretaris, een deeltijdse
financiële medewerker en door de communicatieverantwoordelijke.
B. W ERKPAKKETTEN
De werkpakketleiders zijn de eindverantwoordelijken voor de inhoudelijke uitvoering van de
projecten in hun werkpakket en in het bijzonder voor de interactie en de interne kennisoverdracht
tussen de verschillende projecten binnen hetzelfde werkpakket. In de regel omvat een werkpakket
meerdere projecten die van diverse aard kunnen zijn zoals aangegeven in het meerjarenprogramma.
Werkpakketleiders zijn senior-onderzoekers die in vast dienstverband verbonden zijn aan de
deelnemende instellingen. Hun inbreng als werkpakketleider in het Steunpunt is onbezoldigd.
C. P ROJECTEN
Elk project wordt geleid door één projectleider. Van een projectleider wordt een reële aansturing van
het onderzoek en een sterke affiniteit hiermee verwacht. De projectleiders zijn senior-onderzoekers uit
het vaste personeelskader van de onthaalinstellingen. Projectleiders en werkpakketleiders kunnen,
maar hoeven niet dezelfde personen te zijn.
Een gedetailleerde lijst van onderzoekers, projectleiders en werkpakketleiders is opgenomen in de
beschrijving van werkpakket 7 (projectmanagement) in hoofdstuk .4 (sectie 4.3.7).
1.7.3 EXTERN OVERLEG OP PROJECT- EN WERKPAKKETNIVEAU
Op niveau van de werkpakketten zal gestructureerd overleg tussen de betrokken onderzoekers,
projectleiders en een groep van relevante kennisgebruikers uit het werkveld worden georganiseerd.
Het consortium zal dit overleg formaliseren in gebruikersgroepen. Relevante deelnemers voor deze
gebruikersgroepen zijn alleszins ambtenaren uit diverse geledingen van de Vlaamse overheid (bv. de
afdeling Beleid Mobiliteit en Verkeersveiligheid binnen het departement MOW, de afdelingen Expertise
Verkeer en Telematica (EVT) en Electromechanica en Telematica (EMT) binnen het Agentschap
Wegen en Verkeer of het Vlaams Verkeerscentrum), eventueel aangevuld met externen zoals
bijvoorbeeld leden van het Vlaams Forum Verkeersveiligheid, provinciale en gemeentelijke
ambtenaren of politiemensen.
19
De gebruikersgroepen vormen een geschikt inhoudelijk klankbord en valorisatiekanaal voor de
verschillende onderzoeksprojecten, van bij de start tot bij de oplevering van de resultaten. Zo zal er
typisch voor elk onderzoeksproject op drie momenten overleg worden gepleegd: bij de opstart waarbij
het onderzoeksplan wordt toegelicht, vanaf het ogenblik dat er enig zicht is op tussentijdse resultaten
(interimoverleg) en in de eindfase van het project, op het ogenblik dat een eerste versie van het
onderzoeksrapport afgewerkt is en er – op basis van het advies van leden van de gebruikersgroep –
nog aanpassingen in het onderzoeksrapport mogelijk zijn.
Het werken met gebruikersgroepen heeft bijgevolg een drievoudig doel:
1) het maximaal afstemmen van het onderzoekswerk binnen het Steunpunt op vragen en
kennisbehoeften bij potentiële eindgebruikers;
2) fungeren als een instrument van kwaliteitszorg door de toetsing van het onderzoekswerk aan
de mening van derden;
3) het laten doorstromen van onderzoeksresultaten naar gebruik in Vlaanderen (=valoriseren).
Langs de zijde van het Steunpunt is de werkpakketleider het aanspreekpunt en de inhoudelijke
verantwoordelijke voor de gebruikersgroep. De onderzoekers uit het betreffende werkpakket zijn
aanwezig in functie van de concrete agenda. Voorstel is om de gebruikersgroepen 2 tot 3 keer per
jaar te laten samenkomen. Aangezien niet alle projecten in het Steunpunt gelijktijdig lopen, kan een
dynamiek gecreëerd worden waarbij volgens een stramien Steunpuntprojecten kunnen worden
opgevolgd, een redelijke spreiding van de vergaderlast mogelijk is en een voldoende mate van
inhoudelijke opvolging kan gebeuren.
Om het opzet en de invulling van de gebruikersgroepen te concretiseren, zal het consortium een
voorstel doen aan de stuurgroep en de beleidsraad MOW.
20
2 THE CONSORTIUM
2.1 COMPOSITION OF THE CONSORTIUM
The proposal is being submitted by a consortium of two universities (Hasselt University (UHasselt) and
Catholic University Leuven (KU Leuven)) supplemented with one partner (the Flemish Institute for
Technological Research (VITO)).
1. The participation of Hasselt University is through the Transportation Research Institute
(IMOB). UHasselt also provides the promoter - co-ordinator of the Policy Research Centre: dr.
S. Daniels.
2. Catholic University Leuven is participating through its research groups KUL-SADL (Spatial
Applications Division Leuven) headed by Prof. dr. T. Steenberghen, KUL-ETE (research
group Energy, Transportation and Environment) headed by Prof. dr. S. Proost and KUL-CIB
(Centre for Industrial Management / research group Traffic and Infrastructure) headed by Prof.
dr. C. Tampère.
The consortium is being expanded with one partner: The Flemish Institute for Technological
Research (VITO), and more specifically, the centre of expertise Transition Energy and Environment‟
Unit - Transport & Mobility team headed by L. Govaerts.
2.2 JUSTIFICATION OF THE CHOICE OF THE CONSORTIUM
In the light of the scope and diversity of the different projects presented in this proposal, the lead
contractor has opted to cooperate with a number of partners to form a project consortium.
The consortium partners were chosen based on their complementarities in scientific expertise and
experience with policy oriented work needed to fulfill the variety of research topics as proposed by the
call document for the new Policy Research Center.
2.2.1 BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF THE PARTICIPATING RESEARCH GROUPS
UHasselt-IMOB
Hasselt University‟s Transportation Research Institute (IMOB) currently has approximately 55 staff
members, making it one of the largest research institutions in Belgium that is active in the field of
transportation .The researchers in the institute are coming from fields such as transportation,
economics, psychology, engineering, mathematics, sociology, architecture, informatics, …. This
multidisciplinary approach allows to deal with transportation research questions in a multidisciplinary
way. The institute has a great deal of experience in several quantitative methodologies (e.g. data
mining, microsimulation, Bayesian statistics, operations research) to model travel behavior, traffic
safety and logistics. Furthermore, the institute has a strong relationship with the Bachelor Master
Transportation Sciences programme at Hasselt University, the only academic full-time bachelor and
master Transportation Sciences programme in Belgium. Finally, IMOB also has experience with
co-ordinating large research projects, such as the European FP7 DATASIM project (2,3 million €), the
IWT - Strategic Basic Research projects on activity-based modelling of travel behavior (2,3 million €)
and on the evaluation of the safety and environmental effects of traffic policy measures (2,1 million €),
the Policy Research Centre for Traffic Safety (4,5 million €) and the Policy Research Centre for
Mobility and Public Works – research track Traffic Safety (3,3 million €). In both Policy Research
Centres, the institute provided the promoter – co-ordinator and the director.
KU Leuven-SADL
SADL is a collaboration between research groups from the Department of Earth and Environmental
Sciences at the K.U.Leuven, specialized in the transfer of research results and expertise from the
university to society. The main emphasis is on the application of Geographic Information Science
21
and Technology in the fields of land management and of the socio-economic environment. This is
achieved through applied research and scientific services for governments and non-governmental
organisations and companies, and through post and para-academic course programmes.
KU Leuven-CIB
The research unit Traffic and Infrastructure of the Centre for Industrial Management (CIB) at
KULeuven specializes in (dynamic) traffic modeling tools supporting research on three main topics:
development and application of uni- and multimodal transportation network design and
optimization models, Intelligent Transportation Systems and external effects of transportation.
Of special importance for this call is the group‟s expertise with the relation between road network
design (topology, structure, connectivity, hierarchy, capacity distribution) and the use patterns that
emerge in regular and perturbed (incidental) conditions.
KU Leuven-ETE
The Energy Transport Environment (ETE) research group of the KULeuven focuses on Energy,
Transport and Environmental problems and consists of the researchers of the CES and the
associated researchers of the HUB (some 15 to 20 people). The group specializes in the use of
modelling tools (general equilibrium, partial equilibrium) to address pricing, regulation and
investment problems. It has developed transport policy models such as TRENEN, TREMOVE and
MOLINO that are used for policy making by the EU, OECD and different member states in Europe as
well as in the US. Research activities are almost fully covered by external funds. The group is also one
of the co-founders of the spin off Transport Mobility Leuven.
The research group is imbedded in the Department for economics that hosts some 18 full time
professors in economics.
VITO
VITO is a leading independent European research and consulting centre developing sustainable
technologies in the area of energy, environment, transport, materials and remote sensing. VITO
provides objective research, studies and advice enabling European, national and regional authorities
to establish future policies. VITO counts approximately 600 highly qualified employees from diverse
specializations.
The „Transition Energy and Environment‟ Unit of VITO groups 70 researchers who scientifically
underpin the transition to a more sustainable society. Its research focuses on an integrated analysis of
(i) transport and mobility, (ii) energy use and supply, (iii) resources management, (iv) industrial
emissions, (v) living and building and (vi) climate change and land use. The Transport & Mobility
team analyses transport in connection with technology, energy and the environment. It has been
active since many years in the field of clean vehicles and transport modelling: exhaust emissions,
technical follow-up of the market, fleet consultancy, green car taxation (with the Belgian Ecoscore
database and website), emission modelling, activity-based modelling, etc.
2.2.2 JUSTIFICATION
1.
UHasselt-IMOB has broad competencies and research experience in the areas of traffic safety
and mobility. The group especially has a strong background in quantitative modeling and
evaluation techniques and in driving simulator research. It has built up an extensive amount of
road safety and related data, has carried out several policy evaluation studies in the past and has
built up extensive know-how on methodologies for studying accidents and driving behavior.
Furthermore, given the available experience with managing comparable large scale and complex
projects, such as the two previous editions of the Policy Research Center, IWT Strategic Basic
research projects dealing with activity-based travel behaviour, etc., the project management for
this new Policy Research Centre has been assigned to UHasselt-IMOB. Apart from that, IMOB is
also involved in several research projects of this proposal.
22
2.
KULeuven-SADL is highly recognized in the field of geographic information science and
technology. In this area, they have a long history of research, applied projects and services
toward government and non-government institutions (including e.g. the development of the
analytical GIS and the WebGIS for the Spatial Monitor of Flanders, the development and
maintenance of MOBGIS, FIETSGIS, ONGEVALLENGIS for the Department of Public Works in
the Flemish Administration). This expertise is highly valuable in the consortium more specifically
in projects 1.1 (road safety monitor for Flanders) and 2.3 (Spatial approach to traffic safety ).
3.
KULeuven-CIB has specific expertise about the relation between road network design (topology,
structure, connectivity, hierarchy, capacity distribution) and the use patterns that emerge in
regular and perturbed (incidental) conditions. This expertise is of particular interest for project 5.3
where measures such as dynamic traffic management are evaluated on their effectiveness in
terms of traffic safety, but also in terms of intermediate measures such as traffic flow, speed or
route choice behavior.
4.
KULeuven-ETE has a specific and internationally accepted expertise in socio-economic
evaluation methods (CBA), pricing, regulation and investment problems with applications in the
field of transportation. This expertise is of particular interest in project 5.1 (Efficiency of road
safety enforcement) where research is carried out to determine the most efficient allocation of fine
revenues over different police zones and tasks and where the role of private enforcement is
examined in a modern traffic safety policy.
5.
VITO has built up specific expertise over the years into modeling the relationship between
transport and the environment and in economic impact evaluation. For the project on electric
bicycles (project 3.3), the data for electric bicycles will be compared with reference data from the
VITO SHAPES project, which contain similar data for ordinary bikes, allowing for thorough
comparison of driving behavior and accident incidence between „normal‟ and e-bikers. VITO will
also specifically contribute to project 5.3 (Impact of infrastructural road safety measures on traffic
safety) with respect to societal cost-benefit analysis of policy measures.
Some of the consortium partners already have experience working together on previous projects. So
have UHasselt-IMOB and VITO already collaborated in the past two Policy Research Centres for
Traffic Safety. Furthermore, UHasselt-IMOB and VITO have also collaborated in the context of two
IWT SBO projects and the EU FP7 DATASIM project. IMOB and SADL have already worked together
on a European COST-project regarding safety of pedestrians. VITO and KUL-ETE have close
collaboration with VITO on economic evaluation methods.
2.3 DISTRIBUTION OF TASKS AMONG THE ENTITIES AND THE PARTNER,
AND THE MODUS OPERANDI
The formal direction of the policy research centre will be carried out by the executive committee, The
executive committee sets down the internal long-term strategy and administers operational issues in
the Policy Research Centre. Moreover, the executive committee decides about internal procedures for
templates of research reports, preparation of the annual research program and preparation of annual
reports. Furthermore the executive committee watches over the engagements in the multi-year
program and the subsequent annual programs. The executive committee is chaired by the promotercoordinator.
The daily management of the policy research centre will be carried out by the promoter – co-ordinator.
He has all the required research and management expertise, and through his involvement in the
previous policy research centre for traffic safety, he is familiar with the day-to-day management and
ongoing work in a policy research centre.
The promoter – co-ordinator will be assisted by a parttime (0.3 FTE yearly ) project secretary, a
financial collaborator (0.2 FTE yearly ) and a communication representative (0.25 FTE yearly). This
person is WP leader of WP6 Valorization. The promoter – co-ordinator is also the direct point-ofcontact for the funding organization, for instance for short term questions that need to be answered
within the context of the research budget that can be freely allocated.
23
UHasselt-IMOB provides general and specific expertise on traffic safety research related to crash and
behavioural analysis, driving simulator research and effectiveness evaluation in the Policy Research
Centre. IMOB contributes to WP1 by the yearly report in project 1.2. In WP2 IMOB contributes to the
projects 2.1 and project 2.2. Furthermore, IMOB contributes to WP3 on projects 3.1 and 3.2. In this
WP IMOB cooperates with VITO and KUL-CIB in project 3.3. IMOB is also involved in WP4 in project
4.1., 4.2 and 4.3. Finally IMOB is involved in WP5 in the projects 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4..
KUL-SADL provides an important contribution to the consortium by its expertise on spatial research
methods (e.g. GIS). This results in research in WP1 (project 1.1), and (project 2.3).
KUL-ETE provides specific expertise for the projects on economical evaluation methods. That
expertise is used in project 5.1. to optimize road safety enforcement.
KUL-CIB provides expertise in traffic modeling tools supporting research on three main topics:
development and application of uni- and multimodal transportation network design and optimization
models, Intelligent Transportation Systems and external effects of transportation. This expertise is
used in projects 2.3 and 5.3. These projects will be carried out in collaboration with VITO and IMOB.
VITO contributes to WP3 in project 3.3. The expertise of VITO with respect to economical evaluation
methods will be used in project 5.3. These projects will be carried out in collaboration with VITO and
IMOB
For a detailed description of the work packages and projects outlined, we refer to Chapter 4 –
Research Programme. For a table with the allocation of personnel and involvement of the different
partners over the different research projects, we refer to Chapter 7. The allocation of personnel and
involvement of the different partners is also shown at the end of each project sheet in Chapter 4.
2.4 DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES AMONG THE PARTICIPATING
RESEARCH GROUPS
The total budget for this Policy Research Centre amounts to 2 350 000.00 €, while the total general
project costs amount to 386 159.40 €. This yields a remaining budget of 1 963 840.60 € to be
distributed among the seven consortium partners. The total number of FTE to be performed amounts
to 35 FTE (excl. co-financing of the input of promoter-coordinator, WP-leaders and project leaders by
UHasselt-IMOB, KUL-SADL, KUL-ETE and KUL-CIB).
The distribution of the resources among the five participating research groups and the number FTE
per research group is summarized in the next table.
Table 1: Overview of the distribution of resources among the participating research groups
Partner
UHasselt-IMOB project co-ordination
Budget
FTE
386 159.40 €
16%
5
1 202 821.60 €
51%
19
VITO
240.840,00 €
10%
3
KUL-SADL
323.697,00 €
14%
4.5
KUL-ETE
49.852,00 €
2%
1
KUL-CIB
146.630,00 €
6%
2.5
UHasselt –IMOB research
Total
2.350.000,00 €
35
A more detailed overview of the distribution of resources among the participating research groups can
be found in section 7.2 – Budgeting of the expenditure of the assigned resources.
24
3 THE TRAFFIC SAFETY POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE
3.1 AIMS AND INTENDED RESULTS OF THE POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE
3.1.1 GENERAL AIMS FOR A POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE
The Flemish government has formulated the following main aims for Policy Research Centres:
a.
Collecting, analysing and disseminating data (longitudinally, as well).
That may, among others, refer to developing indicators, providing benchmarks, carrying out
surveys…
b.
Conducting problem-specific scientific research (short term).
This relates to conducting scientific research related to concrete policy questions in the short term.
c.
Conducting policy-specific scientific research that is relevant over the longer term for the Flemish policy.
That may relate to developing new research methodologies and indicators, as well as to analysing
developments and challenges that Flemish policy may be confronted with over the medium term.
d.
Providing scientific services.
That may relate to knowledge-transfer tasks, training, methodological recommendations with
respect to data-collection and analysis, providing information on an ad-hoc basis, setting up and
administering a documentation centre, …
These elements should be present in the programme of each Policy Research Centre. However the
focus of each Policy Research Centre and consequently the balance between the included tasks may
differ. Moreover the content of each Policy Research Centre can be determined flexibly, depending on
the developments and the needs in a certain domain.
According to the call document, the Policy Research Centres should accumulate the expertise and
innovative knowledge required, partly by integrating itself into international networks. A Policy
Research Centre is therefore also expected to profile itself as the specialised centre of expertise for
the policy area concerned in Flanders.
The Flemish government requires the Policy Research Centres also to pay attention to transversal
societal themes, more specifically the themes that are mentioned in the Governing agreement
(Vlaamse regering, 2009).
In support of the plan Flanders in Action, PACT2020 (ViA, 2011) experts of the Policy Research
Centre will, as requested in the call document, on demand take part as scientific expert to the
meetings of the Council of the Wise
3.1.2 SPECIFIC AIMS FOR THE TRAFFIC SAFETY POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE
In the call for proposals, the Flemish Government has set out a specific research agenda for the subtheme of traffic safety. This research agenda is split into vertical and horizontal themes:
a. Vertical themes

Reference database on traffic safety data
Collection and dissemination of relevant indicators and data registration.

Traffic crash analysis
In-depth research, target group oriented and area based approach.
b. Horizontal themes

Innovation
New technologies to improve traffic safety.
25

Financing and cost calculation
Financing of traffic safety measures and calculation of internal and external costs of the road
safety problem.

Policy impact measurement
Evaluation of traffic safety measures, development and monitoring of traffic safety indicators.
3.2 SYNTHESIS: ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE TRAFFIC SAFETY
POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE
Based on general and specific aims as represented in the previous section 3.1 and also based on a
thorough analysis of societal challenges that was done by the consortium, a number of important
areas can be defined that need to be addressed for policy oriented research related to traffic safety.
Logically, these issues should be reflected in the research program of the Traffic Safety Policy
Research Centre.
These areas include:
1. Basic data, indicators and benchmarks between countries and regions with respect to road
safety. This topic is mentioned both in the general and specific aims of the Traffic Safety
Policy Research Centre. This topic is also explicitly listed in the goals of the relevant policy
plans on the Belgian and Flemish level (FCVV, 2011; Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams
Parlement, 2009).
2. Traffic crash analyses form an explicit part in the call document and are useful to obtain
relevant insights in many aspects of the traffic safety problem. These analyses can be defined
in different ways according to the level of aggregation of information, varying from a network
or country level to a very detailed, in-depth level.
3. New technologies (both in-car and roadside) provide new possibilities (but sometimes also
challenges) for road safety, if correctly used. The potential effectiveness and public
acceptability of such new technologies is therefore of specific interest to policy makers and
road safety researchers. New means of transportation will likely change the way how we travel
in the future (e.g. electric vehicles, electric bikes…). However, the safety effects of these new
types of transportation means (and their effects on liveability of urban areas) are not yet fully
understood (European Commission, 2010);
4. A deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms of traffic behaviour enables policy
makers to follow an evidence-based approach in taking road safety measures. Research
shows that different intended or unintended violations of traffic rules remain the most
important contributing factor to traffic crashes (Evans, 2004; Shinar, 2007). Advanced
scientific approaches (e.g. in-depth crash investigation, conflict observation, driving
simulation) enable to study road safety in a different way (proactively) rather than based on
crash data only (reactively). This enables policy makers to act faster and more effectively;
5. Much attention in the policy plans (Departement MOW, 2008; European Commission, 2010;
FCVV, 2011; Vlaams Parlement, 2009) is given to specific target groups. These groups are
typically defined based on age (youngsters, elderly) or road user type (pedestrians, bicyclists,
moped rider, motorcyclists, truck drivers...).
6. Accurate estimates of the effectiveness and efficiency of road policy measures form an
integral part of modern policy-making. This will enable policy makers to invest scarce
resources more efficiently and effectively. Both effectiveness (policy impact assessment) and
efficiency issues (financing and cost calculation) are of importance.
7. A need for a scientific approach is emerging, not only in the domain of problem analysis, but
also in order to define, shape and evaluate adequate countermeasures to tackle road safety
problems (WHO, 2004; Departement MOW, 2008; Elvik & Vaa, 2004). These measures are
most often organised around the 3 E‟s Education-Engineering-Enforcement.
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4 RESEARCH PROGRAMME
4.1 INTRODUCTION
This section discusses the Policy Research Centre‟s‟ research programme.Given the available budget
to ensure the depth and the scientific quality of the research to be carried out, choices must be made
from a large set of potential themes. To justify the choices made in that process and to ensure that the
choices meet the requirements set by the Flemish government as much as possible, we have applied
the following general considerations in selecting the different work packages and the associated
research projects:
1. First and foremost, the research programme is connected as much as possible with the
assignments contained in the original call document for the policy research centres in
general, and that were formulated more specifically for the Traffic Safety Policy Research
Centre.
2. The proposed research programme should be relevant in the sense that it addresses those
aspects that reflect societal needs and challenges. That appears from the contents of the call
document, but it was at the same time, thoroughly tested against the analysis of societal
challenges and existing policy documents at different policy levels (ranging from Flemish to
international). This resulted in a list of important issues to be addressed in the Traffic Safety
Policy Research Centre as indicated in the previous section 3.2.
3. The proposed research programme should be scientifically sound. As it is indicated in the
call document, this means that research needs to correspond with the requirements and rules
of scientific inquiry. As it is also indicated in the call document, PhD research remains an
important element in the Policy Research Centre, although it is not a main objective.
Moreover, PhD projects should generate intermediate results that are relevant for policymaking.
4. The proposed research programme should add to existing knowledge. As this will be the
third Flemish Policy Research Centre on Traffic Safety, the research program should integrate
the acquired knowledge from its predecessors and – where appropriate - elaborate on the
work that has been done in the past without duplicating efforts that were already done
4.2 SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAMME
In view of the stated selection principles and bearing in mind the synthesis of the elements in the call
document and the policy documents, the research programme was selected that is graphically
depicted in Figure 2. This research programme is based on a hierarchy of two levels, namely:

Work packages: A work package comprises a logically cohesive part of the research in the
Policy Research Centre. The research content is organised in 5 work packages (1-5). Work
packages 6 and 7 deal with valorisation and project management.

Projects: within each work package, different projects are defined. Figure 2 provides a
comprehensive overview of the different projects in each work package.
27
Figure 2: Research programme Policy Research Centre Traffic Safety
28
4.3 INTRODUCTION OF THE CONTENT OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAMME
As indicated in Figure 2, the work packages are organized according to the main horizontal
(innovation, financing and cost calculation, policy impact assessment) and vertical (data, accident
analysis) objectives of the Policy Research Centre. The organization of the work packages is formally
structured according to the vertical themes, due to two reasons: (1) this appeared the most
appropriate in the perspective of the content of the call document and the above described societal
challenges (2) if our proposal would be accepted, we will create an operational project organisation
according to these themes.
WP1 on data and indicators covers the requirements on data collection and dissemination. As
indicated in the call document, the vertical theme “accident analysis” makes up the main objective of
the scientific research on road safety. Therefore, this theme is split up in four work packages, each
organized around a relevant dimension: WP2 focuses on risk analysis, WP3 on human behaviour in
relation to the system components vehicle and environment, WP4 on the development of relevant
countermeasures, WP5 on the evaluation and ranking of measures.
In what follows, a brief description of the content of the work packages is given. For each of the
selected work packages it will also be indicated how the work package and the included projects
respond to the stated issues (see section 3.2) that need to be addressed in the Traffic Safety Policy
Research Centre. Subsequently, we indicate how the different projects and work packages are
related to each other. Since the organisation of the work packages is basically done according to the
vertical themes in the call document, we also argue specifically how our research program is
related to the different horizontal themes.
Finally, we indicate how our proposal addresses the transversal societal themes that are listed in the
Flemish governing agreement (Vlaamse regering, 2009) and the Flanders in Action Plan (ViA, 2011).
Work package 1: Data and indicators
This work package consists of the collection, analysis and dissemination of data and indicators
concerning traffic safety. These analyses will be used to develop a road safety monitor for Flanders
and to produce a yearly road safety report.
This work package consists of 2 projects:
1.1. A road safety monitor for Flanders
In this project an instrument will be developed that enables (1) the harmonization of data,
indicators and analysis methods used in the field of traffic safety in Flanders, and (2) the
transfer of research results and expertise from the policy research centre to policy makers
and public administrations.
1.2. Yearly report
The yearly road safety report will provide an up-to-date overview with respect to the road
safety situation in Flanders.
Work package 2: Risk analysis
The objective of this work package is to respond to the stated need in the call document for a thorough
analysis of accident data. A communal aspect in this work package is the analysis of crash data,
varying from analyses on a network level to research based on detailed crash data. This will be done
through different analysis techniques and designs. This is not only in line with the call document, but is
also strongly emphasized in various policy documents (European Commission, 2010; FCVV, 2011;
Vlaams Parlement, 2010) Moreover, these analyses will support the government in the application of
the EU directive on road safety management and the related Flemish Decree (Vlaamse Overheid,
2011).
29
Four projects are defined within this work package:
2.1. Network safety management
Road infrastructure design influences road safety. In this project two complementary tools
will be developed and applied in order to quantify the safety level of road stretches. The
first subtask will focus on safety management on an aggregate, network level. In the
second subtask a tool to measure the safety of individual road sections will be developed
and validated.
2.2. Analyzing road crash patterns by using collision diagrams
Many road safety studies only take into account total crash counts at specific locations. A
lot of more detailed crash information is, although increasingly available, rarely analyzed.
This can result in overlooking important insights in road safety. By analyzing road crashes
using their exact position at a particular type of road location, new insights will be gained to
improve road design from a safety perspective.
2.3. Spatial approach to traffic safety
The main objective of this project is to elaborate a territorial approach in order to improve
traffic safety in Flanders, through analyses of (1) the relation between traffic characteristics
and the surrounding urban, suburban or rural environments, (2) interactions between land
use, transport infrastructures, road user behaviour and their traffic safety impacts and (3)
multi-level effects of traffic management and traffic safety measures.
Work package 3: Human behaviour in relation to the system components vehicle and environment
A classic framework in road safety analysis proceeds from the interaction among humans, vehicles
and the environment. It refers basically to the fact that the traffic system is composed of different
components interacting with each other, thus not acting independently. This work package aims to
investigate relevant aspects of this framework from its different sides in order to explain traffic safety in
a system‟s perspective. The main purpose of this approach is to gain a better insight in the nature of
human behaviour in traffic in response to different and changing conditions.
The specific objective of this work package is to describe and analyse human behaviour as an element
of the traffic system (human-vehicle-environment). As a result of this, this work package consists of 3
projects:
3.1 Parent-offspring socialization as a lifelong learning strategy to promote traffic safety: opportunities & threats.
The primary aim of this project is to explore parent-offspring relationships with respect to
traffic safety and to come up with specific policy recommendations for an effective
management of parenting as a behavioural change strategy to increase traffic safety.
3.2 Evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures using on-site behavioural observation
This project makes use of on-site behavioural observation and conflict observation to
gather detailed information related to road users behaviour, which can be used to evaluate
the safety impact of the measure of interest.
3.3 Transition to electric bicycles: what does it imply for traffic safety?
The aim of this project is to shape an image of the policy and infrastructure requirements
needed to safeguard the numerous positive effects of a possible breakthrough of electric
bikes as a basic link of a sustainable mobility system. A research design combining high
resolution gps-logging, test-rider surveys, and modelling, offers a flexible and thorough
basis for the scientific exploration of the formulated research questions
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Work package 4: Development of road safety measures
In this work package projects are defined that support the development of innovative countermeasures
to tackle road safety problems. This work package contains three projects, investigating the
usefulness of education and engineering strategies that might intrinsically motivate drivers to behave
safely. The strategies selected for study will be subjected to an ex-ante evaluation within a simulatorbased design. Across the three projects, different driver segments will be studied.
4.1 Simulator-based training for young novice drivers to reach higher level “Goals for Driver Education (GDE)”
Driving simulators offer a unique chance for drivers to experience dangerous situations
safely during a limited learning period. Therefore, we propose a simulator-based training
program on hazard perception with a promising commentary technique to promote young
novice driver‟s higher level driving skills.
4.2 Assessing effects of signage at road construction work zones on road user mental state and behaviour
Some traffic situations (i.e., demanding situations) require drivers to pay extra attention.
Alerting drivers might then serve traffic safety, and especially in case of driver fatigue or
distraction. The aim of this project is to compare road environment adjustments with ITS
warning signals in specific demanding driving situations to establish the most effective way
of enhancing attention.
4.3. Ex-ante evaluation of the impact of road infrastructure on traffic safety
An ex-ante evaluation of road infrastructure on traffic safety is the process of estimating the
impact of infrastructural measures which are not implemented yet. This project includes
both driving simulator research and field experiments.
Work package 5: Evaluation and ranking of measures
The central objective of work package 5 is to evaluate various traffic safety measures and to provide a
ranking of publicly acceptable measures in order to reach the traffic safety objectives that are put
forward by the Flemish government, while ensuring that the best use is made of the available
resources.
This work package considers different three broad categories of policies: enforcement, infrastructural
road safety measures and educative insight programs. In addition, it introduces the concept of
amenability to treatment in order to help policy-makers in the decision process. The guiding principle
throughout the work package is the efficiency and effectiveness of the traffic measures.
5.1 Efficiency of road safety enforcement
In this project the efficiency of road safety enforcement is investigated. It focuses on
possible budget allocation schemes for traffic fine revenues.
5.2 Amenability to treatment
To increase traffic safety efficiently, it might be not only important to select measures that
reach the highest possible effects with as less means as possible. Also the level of public
acceptance for countermeasures might be decisive. These dimensions can be expressed
by the amenability to treatment, which is defined as the prospects of implementing
measures that will reduce a road safety problem, or, at best, eliminate the problem.
5.3 Impact of infrastructural road safety measures on traffic safety
This project can help to get a better sight on the effectiveness of different measures that
are already widely implemented, from which it can be examined which effects these have
on the number of crashes and the severity of these crashes and on other, more
intermediate outcomes, such as speeds. Moreover this project will deals with possible
31
network effects. The project will also include societal cost-benefit analyses of the
investigated measures.
5.4 Effectiveness evaluation of an educative insight program
The objective of this project is to subject a Flemish educational insight program to an
outcome effect evaluation on the basis of which policy recommendations can be proposed
as to how the program studied could be (further) improved.
Work package 6: Valorisation
This workpackage contains the dissemination and valorisation activities of the Policy Research Centre.
Details about the content of this WP are given in chapter 5.
Work package 7: Project management
Work package 7 includes the project management of the Policy Research Centre. More details about
project management can be found in the following sections:

Section 4.3.7: about the project management structure

Section 7.1: about the timing of the different projects, as well as the allocation of personnel
over the different tasks and researches in the multi-year programme

Section 7.2: about the estimation of the spending of allocated financial resources
Interactions between the different work packages
The work packages and the projects are defined in a way that different research activities are clearly
distinguished from each other. We have tried to do this by elaborating each project already in a
sufficient level of detail. We consider this to be an important element in the project management not
only because this enables to allocate research time and budgets efficiently, but also because this
facilitates the detailed project planning, indicates clearly which tasks are to be done by who and thus
sets clear responsibilities for everyone involved.
However this does not mean that all the research activities will be executed independently from each
other. As indicated in section 4.3.7 the project organisation will enable and encourage the exchange of
knowledge and insights between the involved researchers and research groups.
Also with respect to the content of the research program clear links between projects are present.
These interactions happen on two levels: (1) within work packages and (2) between work packages
For the interactions between the different projects within a work package we refer to the descriptions
of the work packages and to the project organisation that includes the coordination by the WP leader.
A first important relation between work packages concerns the exchange of information between the
work package data and indicators (WP1) and the different content-based work packages. WP 1 is
both a „supplier‟ of relevant data to the different projects in the other work packages and a „client‟ of
results that are obtained in the other work packages and that are included in the road safety monitor
(project 1.1) and in the yearly road safety reports (project 1.2).
A second important relation concerns the input that the different work packages deliver to WP6 on
valorisation. More details about this relation and how this valorisation is carried out can be found in
chapter 5.
A third important relation concerns the interdependence of WP 2 (Risk Analysis), WP3 (human
behaviour in relation to the system components vehicle and environment), WP4 (development of
policy measures) and WP5 (evaluation and ranking). In fact, these work packages refer to a typical
32
Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) policy cycle in which problems are defined and investigated (WP2 and
WP3), measures are developed (WP 4), implemented and subsequently evaluated (WP5).
Way in which the horizontal themes in the call document are included in the research programme.
As indicated in the introduction to the research program, the work packages are organised according
to the vertical themes in the call document. However, the call document also contains horizontal
themes that are equally important. In this section we describe how the different horizontal themes in
the call document are reflected into the proposed research program.
Horizontal theme 1: Innovation
Innovative technologies aim to improve safety for all types of road users, both motorised and nonmotorised. Through research into technological developments and innovations, in particular Intelligent
Transport Systems (ITS), it will be possible to make the traffic system flexible, dynamic and – most
importantly – safer. According to the call document, the focus in this kind of research should be on the
impact of ITS-applications that specifically aim to improve traffic safety. In the proposed research
program, innovative technologies are investigated in WP 3 (project 3.3) for e-bikes. Moreover project
4.3 on ex ante evaluation of infrastructural measures and project 5.3 on ex post evaluation aim to
investigate the effects of various dynamic traffic management systems.
Horizontal theme 2: Financing and cost calculation
A second horizontal theme is the financing of road safety measures to be taken and a cost calculation
with respect to internal and external costs that are generated by traffic unsafety. The call document
indicates that it needs to be investigated based on a cost benefit model which initiatives to enhance
traffic safety primarily are to be undertaken. Apart from public funding, other funding schemes are
possible.
We address the issue of cost benefit analysis in project 5.3 on ex post evaluation. Also project 5.2 on
the amenability to treatment of road safety problems takes into account both cost and effectiveness
elements in order to rank road safety measures. The aspect of financing road safety measures,
possibly apart from public funding, is included in the approach in project 5.1. on efficiency of road
safety enforcement.
Horizontal theme 3: Policy impact measurement
An effective traffic safety policy pays sufficient attention to the evaluation of policy measures and the
impact measurement of policy measures that were taken in the past or will be taken in the future. The
call document states that a collection of the most relevant indicators with respect to traffic safety will
allow measuring the policy impact in an integrated way. This data collection can continue from already
existing and developed indicators, but can also considered being a dynamic whole that is continuously
enriched with new indicators and additional data. In the research program, the impact of policy
measures is a main topic in project 5.1 (efficiency of policy measures), in project 5.3 on impact of
infrastructural road safety measures on traffic safety and in project 5.4 on the evaluation of educational
strategies. The development and monitoring of indicators is the central aim of WP1. Finally, ex ante
evaluation of possible future policy measures will be done in the different projects in WP4 on policy
measure development.
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4.3.1 WORK PACKAGE 1: DATA AND INDICATORS
A BSTRACT
This work package consists of the collection, analysis and dissemination of data and indicators
concerning traffic safety. These analyses will be used to develop a road safety monitor for Flanders on
the one hand and to produce a yearly road safety report with respect to road safety and its underlying
factors on the other hand
1.1. A road safety monitor for Flanders
In this project an instrument will be developed that enables (1) the harmonization of data, indicators
and analysis methods used in the field of traffic safety in Flanders, and (2) the transfer of research
results and expertise from the policy research centre to policy makers and public administrations.
1.2. Indicator analysis: yearly road safety report Flanders
This project deals with the creation of a yearly road safety report providing an up-to-date overview with
respect to the road safety situation in Flanders. A separate analysis will be performed for particular
groups of road users. Furthermore, by including the same basic set of indicators each year,
conclusions can be drawn in terms of evolution (towards targets) and policy impact.
P ROBLEM
STATEMENT
Road safety is a phenomenon that can be captured by various indicators. In the Policy Research
Centre, existing and new indicators will be developed and analyzed in order to gain more insight in the
road safety phenomenon. This will go further than the commonly used indicators reflecting the
outcome of road unsafety (i.e. accidents), and include – in correspondence to the monitoring of the
Mobility Plan Flanders (Hermans, 2011) – performance indicators, policy indicators and contextual
indicators.
The monitoring and analysis of this more extensive set of road safety related indicators enables a
more proactive view on road safety and a stronger understanding of the influencing factors. Gaining
insight in the progress towards the targets, the arrears compared to better performing countries and
regions, and the effectiveness of launched programs and measures are relevant aspects.
For decades, the department of public works invested time and effort to develop and maintain
databases relevant for the field of traffic safety. Most of the GEO-ICT applications are designed for the
validation, correction and update of data (traffic accident location, traffic signs, road network
infrastructure, …). The efforts taken regarding data collection, indicator selection, developed methods
and tools, and generated results within the Policy Research Centre for Traffic Safety need to be joined
in order to offer a user-friendly road safety monitoring tool for Flanders.
While GIS allowed the development of databases and spatial analyses of traffic safety based usually
on infrastructure and traffic characteristics, the Internet and the World-Wide Web have solved the
basic problems of information transmission. The next major advance will come from resolving the
deeper issues of semantic interoperability. Semantic interoperability can and should be addressed by
the application of shared terminologies and ontologies.
A IMS AND
POLICY RELEVANCE
This work package deals with monitoring and reporting based on traffic safety data and indicators. The
following key issues will be addressed in this work package:
•
•
•
•
Develop a semantic reference system to ground the meaning of terms and translate them
between different information communities;
harmonization of data, indicators and analysis methods used in the field of traffic safety in
Flanders;
transfer of research results (new indicators, new assessment and modeling techniques) and
expertise from the Policy Research Centre to policy makers and public administrations;
development of a state-of-the-art Geo-ICT based safety monitoring system, compatible with
existing databases, tools and systems of the Department of Mobility and Public Works;
34
•
a yearly report on the current level of road safety in Flanders, presenting and discussing the
evolution in the (outcome, performance, policy and contextual) indicator values, the progress
towards the targets set and quantifying the gap with the best performers;
In project 1.1 a Road Safety Monitor will be created for Flanders. This project aims to initiate and to
promote an interactive user community where data, analysis techniques and results are developed,
applied, updated, discussed and shared. It will be developed as a digital, user-friendly GIS tool
package to support policy making in the field of mobility and road safety in Flanders. This requires
domain ontology and semantics, data (and meta-data) harmonization, the development and
integration of analysis tools in a GIS, systematic documentation and communication tools (FAQ,
forum, …).
Project 1.2 deals with the analysis of indicators over time. In particular, a yearly road safety report
providing an up-to-date overview with respect to the road safety situation in Flanders will be
composed. This report provides more insight in the profile of the people involved in accidents, the type
of collision, the profile of offenders, the enforcement efforts, etc. A separate analysis will be performed
for particular groups of road users (such as cyclists or children). Furthermore, by including the same
basic set of indicators each year, conclusions can be drawn in terms of evolution (towards targets) and
policy impact.
A NNUAL
PROGRAMME
2012
This work package will perform the following tasks in 2012:




Analysis of the current data, indicators, tools and systems used in the Department of Mobility
and Public Works (project 1.1 and project 1.2);
Produce a first version of an ontology for traffic safety (project 1.1);
Inclusion of outcome, performance, policy and contextual information and data gathering
(project 1.2);
Produce the 2012 road safety report for Flanders (project 1.2).
35
P ROJECT
DESCRIPTION
Project (1.1): A road safety monitor for Flanders
Abstract
In this project, a road safety monitor is created for Flanders. The road safety monitor will be developed
as a semantic GIS to support policy making in the field of mobility and road safety in Flanders. The
system‟s architecture will be based on domain ontology and semantics to facilitate interoperability and
allow for the integration of existing relevant traffic and mobility databases, new quantitative safety
analysis tools, new research results from case studies, and modelling of safety effects of a number of
measures, developed in the various research projects of the Policy Research Centre. Technically, it
takes advantages of the Semantic web and provides a common framework that allows spatial data –
relevant for traffic safety and support analysis - to be shared and reused across application and
community boundaries.
The integration requires that data and metadata are given a well-defined consistent meaning enabling
computers, applications and people to work in cooperation. It shall require a well-defined approach, ,
next to the actual development. The initial user group of the spatial monitor consists of civil servants of
the Flemish Department of Mobility and Public Works, as well as the researchers within the Policy
Research Centre, but can be extended as the project evolves. Moreover, this project will aim to initiate
and to promote an interactive user community where data, analysis techniques and results are
developed, applied, updated, discussed and shared.
Problem statement
The overall objective of this project consists of the development of an instrument to support:


Semantic interoperability and harmonization of data, indicators and analysis methods used in
the field of traffic safety in Flanders, and
Transfer of research results and expertise from the Policy Research Centre to policy makers
and public administrations.
This overall objective is further specified as:


To design and develop a Geo-ICT safety monitoring and information system which is
interoperable with existing databases, tools and systems of the Department of Mobility and
Public Works;
To transfer new safety analysis tools based on new and existing data sources to the
Department of Mobility and Public Works and the policy makers.
Traffic safety is complex and cannot be treated in full by a single scientific discipline. Each discipline
has developed its own methods of observation and analysis, with specific theories and specialised
research tools. Knowledge generation for spatial monitoring can be obtained through integration of
statistical and pictorial representations of areal distributions (remote sensing, video images,…) (see
http://www.mobielvlaanderen.be/verkeersbordendatabank).
A state-of-the-art safety monitoring and information system should go further than applying state-of-the
art GIS analyses of traffic accidents (Elvik, 2008a & 2008b; Steenberghen et al., 2010), and be
capable of processing and sharing new insights obtained from experiments and studies.
The INSPIRE directive came into force on 15 May 2007 and will be implemented in various stages,
with full implementation required by 2019. The INSPIRE directive aims to create a European Union
spatial data infrastructure. This will enable the sharing of environmental spatial information among
public sector organisations and better facilitate public access to spatial information across Europe. A
European Spatial Data Infrastructure will assist in policymaking across boundaries. Therefore, the
spatial information considered under the directive is extensive and includes a great variety of topical
and technical themes. (http://inspire.jrc.ec.europa.eu).
INSPIRE is based on a number of common principles:


Data should be collected only once and kept where it can be maintained most effectively.
It should be possible to combine seamless spatial information from different sources across
36



Europe and share it with many users and applications.
It should be possible for information collected at one level/scale to be shared with all
levels/scales; detailed for thorough investigations, general for strategic purposes.
Geographic information needed for good governance at all levels should be readily and
transparently available.
It should be easy to find what geographic information is available, how it can be used to meet
a particular need, and under which conditions it can be acquired and used.
The implementation of these principles requires harmonisation of data and of metadata. In the
SPATIALIST research project (www.SPATIALIST.be) the relation between a spatial data infrastructure
and public sector innovation in Flanders was examined.
Published findings of this project offer a good frame to start developing the traffic safety monitor of
Flanders in an SDI approach to data sharing (see e.g. Crompvoets et al.,2010; Dessers et al., 2010).
Another key issue is to introduce the Linked Data practise on the Semantic Web to lower the barriers
to linking related data.
Policy relevance
For decades, the department of public works invested time and effort to develop and maintain
relevant, accurate and up-to-date databases for the field of traffic safety. Most of the GEO-ICT
applications are designed for validation, correction and update of data (traffic accident location, traffic
signs, road network infrastructure, …). In the previous Policy Research Centre, a pilot application was
produced, the „road accident analyzer‟ (Van Raemdonck & Macharis, 2011). This tool demonstrates
the potential of geographic analyses in GIS, based on accident, traffic and infrastructure data.
Moreover, a prototype of a web-based tool (http://alpha.uhasselt.be/~mforward/MoFor/ov/) for
visualizing dangerous accident locations and highway segments on Google maps was developed
(Moving Forward, 2011; Van Raemdonck & Hermans, 2011).
The problem concerning the current flow of traffic safety data in Flanders has received considerable
attention in the past, such as within the AGORA-project (2004), the Traffic Safety Policy Research
Centre (e.g. Van den Bossche, 2007) and the SPATIALIST project (e.g. Januarius et al., 2011). Now
that the problem has been analysed, it is time to move on towards solutions. In line with the
international developments in traffic safety research, the principle „don‟t wait for accidents to happen‟
can be applied to further elaborate on these GIS exercises. The traffic safety monitor will be developed
as a portal in which all relevant information is joined. The tool will contain traffic safety related data,
indicators, methods and results generated within the Policy Research Centre. That way, the efforts
taken (e.g. in terms of data gathering) and the output produced can be retrieved in the road safety
monitor.
The road safety monitor will not interfere with the ongoing efforts in the Flemish administration to
optimize data exchange. We will make sure not to further fragment the data flows, and guarantee that
monitoring of new safety risk factors based on the research conducted in the Policy Research Centre,
will be compatible with the SDI efforts in the administration.
Methodology
Task (1.1)a: To design and to develop a Geo-ICT safety monitoring system which can be plugged into the existing
databases, tools and systems of the Department of Mobility and Public Works
Phase 1 consists of a thorough analysis of the current data, tools and systems used in the Department
of Mobility and Public Works (MOW): traffic signs database, MOBGIS, Mercator databank,
OngevallenGIS and FietsGIS, … . That will lead to the identification of opportunities to integrate
existing systems (such as the kijk and edit modules of the traffic signs database) and relevant data
into the new Safety Monitor.
In order to provide a solid basis for the development of the Safety Monitor, an in-depth study will take
place on how a semantic GIS can be developed. Also, ontology for traffic safety will be developed.
This ontology needs to reflect a common understanding of all the research of the policy research
centre, and will be performed in close collaboration with the other work packages, especially with
project 1.2.
An architecture will be created, paying attention to maximum compatibility with existing (sub)systems.
37
The safety monitor can make the reference database of road safety data accessible to a predefined
user community through web services and meta-data search engines. The software will be selected,
after analysis of the existing GIS applications at MOW in order to guarantee maximal compatibility and
to minimize the introduction threshold for new users. The tool will be compatible and complementary
with the EditGIS and KijkGIS developed for the traffic signs database.
Moreover, the developments will be in line with the European INSPIRE and LinkedDATA principles.
The road safety monitor can be developed in more than one form, each with a different functional
character (e.g. for advanced users with full analysis functionality or consultation users for restricted
functionality). Ample experience in this type of monitor design and development was gained for the
Spatial Monitor Flanders (www.ruimtemonitor.be) in the Policy Research Centre for Space and
Housing, 2007-2011. Consistency between both systems will be ensured, to facilitate the dialogue
between spatial planning and mobility, especially when road safety is concerned.
In the next phase, a production environment for the safety monitor at MOW is set up and the use of
the safety monitor is promoted. Furthermore, all installation procedures will be documented and
necessary training provided to different users at different user levels (users, editors, ict system
administrators,…). The safety monitor will be integrated into the existing service and network
architecture of MOW.
Meanwhile, the development environment will be further elaborated at the K.U.Leuven, further refining
the toolbox, and following up updates of the applied software.
Task (1.1)b: Add new data, indicators and safety analysis tools to the safety monitoring system
Newly obtained data, developed indicators, produced tools and generated results in the various
projects of the Policy Research Centre will be as much as possible incorporated in the road safety
monitor of project 1.1. This is further illustrated by means of three examples below. Furthermore,
modules will be added to the safety monitor to exchange research results, ideas, documents,
Questions & Answers and feedback between the research groups and the Department of Mobility and
Public Works (e.g. web forum, blackboard,…).
In general, project 1.1 will harmonize (spatial) data collected in other projects of the Policy Research
Centre and perform a quality control. Harmonization can also concern lay-out, map elements and
meta-data. Spatial data will be made available through interactive web maps so that they can be
shared and discussed.
After the safety monitor is operational, possible automation of input for the recurrent parts of the yearly
road safety report Flanders will be examined along with project 1.2.
Project 2.1 will identify dangerous road locations at the underlying network in Flanders based on a
state-of-the-art method. The implementation of the method and the visualization of the results will be
integrated into a user friendly toolbox or extension of the current system (ArcGIS using ModelBuilder),
to enable (re)calculations of dangerous locations at any given time when updates of the base data
become available. The calculation processes will be completely documented, archived and automated
so that future adjustments or updates can be performed easily and efficiently, and shared with the
community of researchers and policy makers.
A third application concerns the storage of collected data by means of video images, eye-tracking,…
from other research tasks (such as 2.3). Moreover, the possibilities of image processing and image
searching are investigated.
Data
The existing databases used in the Department of Mobility and Public Works (MOW): traffic signs
database, MOBGIS, Mercator databank, OngevallenGIS and FietsGIS.
When relevant for traffic safety analysis links to other databases will be created such that the different
stakeholders (researchers, administration, …) can always use a profusion of recent traffic safety
related data.
38
Output
2012
2013
2014
2015
J F M A M J J A S O N D Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1.1
1
A road safety monitor for
Flanders
Type
PY
Name
Diederik Tirry 2
70%
60%
60%
60%
Researcher
2,5
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Thérèse
Steenberghen2
UHasselt-IMOB, 2 KUL-SADL, 3 KUL-ETE, 4 KUL-CIB, 5 VITO
The output for 2012 will consist of a written report and an oral presentation of the interim-results to the
relevant user group.
39
Project (1.2): Indicator analysis
Abstract
Developing and monitoring road safety indicators is considered to be a valuable aspect in terms of
policy making (see e.g. Vlaamse overheid, 2011). This project deals with road safety indicator analysis
and will result in a yearly road safety report. In particular, a yearly road safety report providing an upto-date overview with respect to the road safety situation in Flanders will be composed. This report
provides more insight in the profile of the people involved in accidents, the type of collision, the profile
of offenders, the enforcement efforts, etc. A separate analysis will be performed for particular groups
of road users (such as cyclists or children). Furthermore, by including the same basic set of indicators
each year, conclusions can be drawn in terms of evolution (towards targets) and policy impact.
Problem statement
Road safety is a phenomenon that can be captured by various indicators (such as the number of
fatalities, the seat belt wearing rate, the hours of alcohol enforcement, etc). Monitoring the evolution in
a number of key indicators often occurs nowadays (for example in Sweden (Berg et al., 2009), Norway
(Elvik, 2008d) and the United States (NHTSA, 2008)). In this project, a broad set of indicators is
analyzed in order to gain more insight in the road safety phenomenon. Attention is not only paid to the
commonly used indicators reflecting the outcome of road unsafety (such as the number of injury
accidents, casualties and fatalities) but also to the underlying performance indicators (such as the
share of persons driving under influence of alcohol or driving at excessive speed) and contextual
influencing factors (for example related to the economic situation). A fourth type of indicators that is
considered, is associated with policy making. That way, the impact of the efforts made can be
assessed and more efficient action (targeted towards the main road safety issues) is possible. In the
second generation of the Policy Research Centre, research has been performed with respect to
indicator selection. More specifically, using the framework of the road safety target hierarchy (including
the following five layers: social costs, final outcomes, intermediate outcomes, programmes/measures
and structure/culture) (National Road Safety Committee, 2000; Koornstra et al., 2002; Vis, 2005)
relevant Flemish road safety indicators at the five mentioned layers have been identified (Wilmots et
al., 2011d). Furthermore, the categories of outcome indicators, performance indicators, policy
indicators and contextual indicators are also used for the monitoring of the Mobility Plan Flanders
(Hermans, 2011).
At the Flemish level, the road safety plan Flanders was published (Departement MOW, 2008). In this
plan, the road safety situation in Flanders (based on accident data up to 2005) was analyzed. In a
subsequent report of the Policy Research Centre Mobility and Public Works, track Traffic Safety, an
update of the analyses (using data up to 2007) took place (Wilmots et al., 2009b) and a third version
of the report, giving a state of the art on the road safety situation in Flanders anno 2009, is foreseen
by the beginning of 2012. The focus in these documents is merely on accident data (referring to the
situation in which the accident already took place). In order to obtain a broader and more proactive
view, and a stronger understanding of road safety in Flanders, not only outcome indicators should be
analyzed, but also underlying performance indicators, policy indicators and contextual indicators.
Moreover, relationships between these indicators need to be investigated.
Policy relevance
Policymaking benefits from relevant, up-to-date road safety information. In the yearly road safety
report, the current level of road unsafety in Flanders will be described (in absolute and relative terms
(risk) as well as at the aggregated and more disaggregated level (e.g. per transport mode)). By
presenting and discussing the evolution in the indicator values, the progress towards the targets set
(see e.g. Departement MOW, 2008; ViA, 2011) can be followed up and the gap with the best
performers quantified. Moreover, the inclusion of underlying performance, policy and contextual
indicators helps in explaining road safety changes over time and assessing the effectiveness of
launched programs and measures taken.
40
Methodology
Road safety indicator data for Flanders will be analyzed in order to describe and explain the current
level of road safety, the past evolution and the projected trend. Given the fact that, in the past,
accident data were the main source of information to be analyzed (see Departement MOW, 2008;
Wilmots et al., 2009b) the inclusion of outcome, performance, policy and contextual information will
provide more detailed insights and enable more specific policy recommendations.
Since a yearly road safety report will be produced (each time including the most recently available
road safety data), there will be a fixed, recurring part as well as a variable part in which a particular
topic can be examined in more detail (e.g. a road user group for which there is a lot of progress to
gain).
Data
For the identified set of outcome (e.g. accident data), performance (e.g. behavioral data), policy (e.g.
enforcement data) and contextual indicators (e.g. mobility and demographic data), up-to-date figures
need to be collected. All this information will be stored in the road safety monitoring tool of project 1.1.
Given the diversity of the indicator set (capturing road safety in a broad perspective), different data
sources need to be consulted. The knowledge obtained in terms of indicator data collection and
(pre)processing (e.g. for the work package on data and on road safety indicators of the Policy
Research Centre 2007-2011) will be used.
Output
The output of this project relates to the yearly road safety report for Flanders. In addition to each
report, a concise factsheet (1 to 2 pages) clearly visualizing and summarizing the main findings will be
provided (both in Dutch). In this yearly report, the following aspects will be handled:




a description of the past evolution and the current (most recent) level of road safety (and risk)
in Flanders
a quantification of the progress towards the targets set
more insight in the developments in road safety by linking the outcome level with performance,
policy efforts and contextual factors.
policy recommendations in terms of problem areas (such as road user groups with an
increased risk) as well as remedial actions and measures to further improve the level of road
safety in Flanders.
In 2012, the first report will be composed. 2010 accident data (and even more recent data if available)
will be requested and analyzed. In addition, data collection and analysis efforts will take place
regarding Flemish performance indicators, policy indicators and contextual indicators. That way, a
broad and up-to-date road safety report for Flanders can be created.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.2 Yearly report
1
Type
PY
Name
50%
50%
50%
50%
Researcher
2
N.1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Elke Hermans1
41
4.3.2 WORK PACKAGE 2: RISK ANALYSIS
P ROBLEM
STATEMENT
Improving the level of road safety in Flanders requires detailed insights. Valuable information can be
deduced from analyzing data. Given the efforts put in accident data registration, it is important to fully
use the available information and extract as much as possible from it. By taking accident and exposure
data into account, the relative safety level at various locations can be computed. When incorporating
infrastructural characteristics in the analysis a more complete road safety score can be computed for a
road location. Moreover, it can be assessed whether the road safety level at a certain location exceeds
the number of accidents which can be expected at such a location.
Furthermore, it might be valuable to analyze road safety at a more detailed level in which an accident
location (e.g. a signalized intersection) is further divided into location sections. The level of injury for
specific groups of road users as well as the accident patterns might differ substantially between these
different sections. Finally, a spatial approach of traffic safety would produce interesting insights
regarding the relation between traffic characteristics and the surrounding environment, the interactions
between land use, transport infrastructure, road user behaviour and their safety impacts as well as the
A IMS AND
POLICY RELEVANCE
Traffic accident analysis is an important tool for improving road safety (see e.g. Vlaamse overheid,
2011). This involves the application of state-of-the-art analysis techniques on existing data (e.g.
accident data, exposure, infrastructural characteristics) as well as the further exploration of promising
methods such as video-analyses. In work package 2, three projects related to this are developed.
Safe infrastructure is one of the priorities for the Flemish government (see e.g. Vlaams Parlement,
2009). More specifically, the identification and ranking of high accident concentration sections is
mentioned in the European directive 2008/96/EC and a Flemish Decree in June 2011. Project 2.1
“network safety management” aims to advise policymakers by identifying high accident
concentration sections on the Flemish network (of highways and regional roads) with a high safety
potential. A second aim of project 2.1 is to assess the safety level of a road in a more detailed way. By
collecting and combining detailed infrastructural characteristics and exposure data a road safety score
will be calculated for a selection of road sections.
Valuable road safety data exist in Flanders. Nevertheless, they are not entirely exploited yet. Project
2.2 “analyzing road crash patterns by using collision diagrams” makes use of the exact location
of accidents and by means of collision diagrams better insight is offered in the accident patterns and
accident propensity (in general as well as for particular types of road users) at different sections of a
road location. By analyzing accident data at such a detailed level of road location sections, more
specific recommendations in terms of road infrastructure design become possible. Valuable results
from the planned case studies (e.g. roundabouts, signalized intersections), can be incorporated in the
existing guidelines (see e.g. AWV, 2009).
Flanders aims for a dynamic society (e.g. ViA, 2011). This implies an efficient, safe and attractive
transport system. However, the existing landscape (e.g. densely populated suburban areas near
highway exits and access roads) hampers this to some extent. This requires zooming in to specific
locations to gain insights in local circumstances, perception and travel behavior and really understand
the interaction between traffic and the environment. Another aspect of project 2.3 “spatial approach
of traffic safety” is the exploration of the potential of new data collection and analysis techniques,
such as video images collected for mobile mapping purposes. Finally, issues of transferability (of the
case study results and of the assessment method for other locations in Flanders) will be examined.
A NNUAL
PROGRAMME
2012
42
In 2012, research will be performed with respect to project 2.1, project 2.2 and project 2.3.
Both tasks in project 2.1 will start. First of all, hazardous road sections will be selected (task 2.1a). In
particular, a list consisting of dangerous highway segments in Flanders will be created in 2012. This
requires the determination of data needs and the gathering of data. In addition, state-of-the-art
methodologies will be studied and applied in order to identify and rank the most dangerous segments.
These segments will be studied in detail to determine their safety potential. Secondly, research will be
performed with respect to the calculation of the road safety score (task 2.1b) for a specific road
section. In particular, relevant infrastructure elements will be identified and methods for combining (or
weighting) information as well as validation will be examined.
Project 2.2 analyzes road crash patterns by using collision diagrams. In 2012, a case study will be
executed. More specifically, for a subset of locations, crash characteristics, location characteristics
and the exact position of the crash will be determined. Next, a protocol will be formulated to divide the
location into different sections. Finally, the data are analyzed and the results documented on.
Project 2.3 deals with a spatial approach of traffic safety. First of all, a state-of-the art overview on the
most important parameters to take into account and possible (quantitative and qualitative) methods will
be identified. Since case studies will be used in this project, suitable locations and times for rural and
urban case studies will be identified. These environments will then be studied through local
observations. In 2012, the focus is on eye-tracking techniques applied to explain the behavior of
different non-motorized target groups.
43
P ROJECT
DESCRIPTION
Project (2.1): Network safety management
Abstract
According to the current EU and Flemish legislation, road authorities have to identify and rank high
accident concentration sections on their TransEuropean Network roads. This project aims at providing
such a list for the Flanders region, not only for TEN-roads, but also for regional roads (all roads owned
by the Flemish authority).
Although the approach of identifying high accident concentration sections is highly informative it still is
an ex-post approach. Therefore, in this project also another, more predictive approach is described.
To this end, the safety level of a road is described in a more detailed way for a selected number of
road segments based on detailed infrastructural characteristics and exposure data. Then, a Road
Safety Score will be calculated for a selection of road sections.
Problem statement
The European directive 2008/96/EC on road infrastructure safety management has recently been
adopted into Flemish legislation (Vlaamse Overheid, 2011). This legislation requires road authorities to
compose a list of high accident concentration sections.
Network Safety Management (NSM) comprises a methodology to analyze existing road networks from
the traffic safety point of view (BASt & Sétra, 2005). It is a method to identify, localize and rank road
sections with the highest priority for improvements and where an improvement of the infrastructure is
expected to be highly cost efficient.
Within the previous generations of the Traffic Safety Research Centre initial initiatives to develop a
NSM-tool have been taken. Van Geirt (2005) has developed risk models for accidents on Flemish
motorways. Geurts (2006) investigated how dangerous locations are identified and ranked in Flanders.
Furthermore, recently a Road Accident Analyzer has being developed (Van Raemdonck & Macharis,
2011; Van Raemdonck & Hermans, 2011). This tool calculates and visualizes the accident risk on
highways in Flanders based on historical crash data and traffic intensities. However, the current tool
has some limitations. The proposed project will therefore build further upon these previous research
projects.
Elvik (2008a) conducted a survey of operational definitions of hazardous road locations in a number of
European countries. He concluded that most of the approaches that are nowadays used are primitive
and likely to involve substantial inaccuracies, compared to the state-of-the-art techniques for
identifying hazardous road locations. This observation is also confirmed by Cheng and Washington
(2008). They studied four commonly applied methods for hot spot identification: accident frequency
ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential and an empirical Bayes (EB) approach.
They indicated this last method as the most consistent and reliable one for identifying dangerous
locations. Ranking locations based on accident rates, despite their widely use, is discouraged by the
authors. Inclusion of some infrastructural characteristics is also needed to link the safety outcome to
infrastructure change (which will provide extra policy relevance) and to better predict the number of
accidents in the EB-approach.
In addition, an extension to other road categories seems to be appropriate since, according to the
official crash data (Statistics Belgium, 2007), only 13% of accidents with killed or seriously injured
people in Flanders occur on motorways (Wilmots et al, 2009b).
Consequently, the first objective in the current project is to define a list of high accident concentration
sections on the Flemish network of regional roads, based on a state-of-the-art analysis technique.
Besides having an ex-post technique to identify dangerous road sections it is also interesting to
develop an ex-ante technique. This technique will allow to calculate an upfront Road Safety Score for
a road segment based on detailed infrastructural characteristics and exposure data. As a case study,
in this project we will calculate such a Road Safety Score for 100 segments. Internationally, such
techniques have already been developed by SWOV and EuroRAP.
Since 1992, Sustainable Safety is the key concept in Dutch road safety programs (Dijkstra &
Louwerse, 2010). The main concepts in relation with the infrastructure are functionality, homogeneity,
recognazibility/predictability and forgivingness. For each principle, functional requirements are drawn
44
up that should reflect in the infrastructural characteristics and traffic situations. The Sustainable Safety
Test is an instrument to determine whether infrastructural traffic facilities meet these requirements.
The test can be applied during different phases of the design or on existing roads.
Also the European cooperative EuroRAP has developed a method to systematically estimate the
extent to which the road design and layout offer protection (from severe injury when a crash occurs) to
vehicle occupants. The protection level is expressed in the Road Protection Score (RPS): a number of
stars with a maximum of four (Vlakveld & Louwerse, 2011). A new version which scores not only
protection but also crash likelihood measures (elements of primary and secondary safety) has been
introduced since the end of 2009.
Both the Road Protection Score and the Sustainable Safety Test are interesting techniques but they
should be further developed to better suit the Flemish situation. The RPS is calculated based on three
types of accidents, only taking into account car occupants. Since vulnerable road users are a major
concern in the Flemish region, an extension of the method is envisaged which also includes other
types of accidents involving vulnerable road users. Relevant road infrastructure features have to be
determined in that respect. Some typical Flemish features such as “ribbon building” should also be
included.
Policy relevance
In the Policy note Mobility and Public works (Vlaams Parlement, 2009) it is indicated that safe
infrastructure is an important priority for the Flemish government. To this end, Flanders has set up a
hotspot program in which 800 dangerous locations (mainly intersections) were identified. At the end of
2011 most of the 800 locations will be tackled. Therefore, to make further progress it is important to
extend this approach and focus on dangerous sections rather than spots. Also the European directive
2008/96/EC on road infrastructure safety management (converted into a Flemisch Decree in June
2011) requires that member states identify and rank high accident concentration sections. In order to
make this ranking as effective as possible, it is important to include infrastructural elements (such as
homogeneity, recognazibility and forgivingness) to the ranking procedure. This will help the road
administration to better assess the safety potential of infrastructural changes (Reurings et al., 2006).
Furthermore, in the Policy note Mobility and Public works (Vlaams Parlement, 2009) in accordance
with European directive 2008/96/EC on road infrastructure and safety management also road safety
audits are pushed to be an integrative part of the design process. A standardization according to
objective criteria is aimed for when redesigning roads. Among other points of interest the safety of
cyclists and pedestrians is hereby an important topic in the Flemish policy on sustainable mobility.
The tool/methodology that will be developed within this project will help objectify the safety effects of
road designs by audit committees and road designers.
Methodology
Task (2.1)a: Identifying and ranking of hazardous road sections
Data preparation
First of all, the data that is currently available at the Flemish level (e.g. speed limits, number of driving
lanes, presence of a barrier) should be used as much as possible. Nevertheless, some important
parameters may not be available (e.g. the number of junctions alongside a road segment) and shall
have to be determined based on available road maps.
For the motorways, traffic intensities will be obtained from the traffic counts made by the Flemish
administration. On the other hand, for the regional roads those traffic counts are in most cases not
available. Therefore, we will have to rely on estimates made by traffic models.
It should be noted that the data (as well as the computational tool) will be added to the road safety
monitoring tool developed in project 1.1. This also enables a repetition of the procedure when new
(accident, exposure or infrastructure) data become available.
Identification of hazardous road sections
The next step in the analysis is the identification of the hazardous road segments. Sorensen & Elvik
(2007) state that the state-of-the-art approach involves an identification in terms of the expected
number of accidents (for the current configuration) estimated by using an empirical Bayes method.
The number of accidents is hereby estimated based on the number of accidents on the specific
45
location and the number of accidents on similar locations. The EB approach requires safety
performance functions that predict the expected number of accidents.
Moreover, accident severity will be included in the identification of the hazardous road sections. A
hierarchical 2-level binomial logistic model, which includes crash and crash site characteristics, can be
used for this purpose (Daniels et al, 2010c).
Selection and ranking of hazardous road sections
After the identification, the top 10% (to be determined) of the hazardous road sections will be studied
into further detail to determine the safety potential, i.e. the difference between actual (for the current
configuration) and expected (for a best practice design) accident costs (Figure 3). When needed the
data that are used in the identification stage will be detailed via on-site analysis to further elaborate on
the ranking of these most dangerous segments.
Actual
accident
cost
Safety
potential
Expected
accident cost
for a best
practice design
Figure 3: Safety potential (Ganneau & Lemke, 2006)
Task (2.1)b: Road Safety Score
The Sustainable Safety Test will act as a starting point for this task. From there, the methodology will
be further elaborated and adapted to the Flemish situation and points of interest. In view of the
detailed description of the road segments in this task the analysis is restricted to 100 road segments.
The road segments for which the method will be elaborated will be chosen in dialogue with the Roads
and Traffic Agency.
Identifying relevant infrastructure elements
The Sustainable Safety Test starts from the four main principles of Sustainable Safety (functionality,
homogeneity, recognazibility/predictability and forgivingness) (Dijkstra & Louwerse, 2010).
Relevant features, adapted to the chosen road segments and the Flemish circumstances, will be
selected based on a literature review and expert opinion.
Computing the Road Safety Score
Typically, several features are combined into the Road Safety Score in order to reflect the actual
accident risk (and severity) of the road segment (see e.g. Pardillo-Mayora et al., 2010). Exposure
information and infrastructural characteristics reflecting the key safety principles and requirements will
be considered. After deducing appropriate weights (e.g. based on expert opinion; see e.g. Hermans et
al., 2008b) the Road Safety Score can be computed for the selected road segments.
Validation
The Road Safety Score should reflect the probability of getting injured on a road section with certain
characteristics. Since the RSS is based on road and traffic characteristics and not on accident data, a
validation is needed.
This validation will be twofold. On the one hand, overall scores will be given by experts based on
photos (or videos) of the road segments. These scores will be compared to the calculated RSS. A
second validation will be executed where the values of the RSS will be matched with the actual
accident numbers at those road segments.
Based on this validation procedure the method will be adjusted (by changing the weights), if needed,
to make sure the RSS represents the actual accident risk.
46
Data
For the identification of dangerous road sections (task (2.1)a) as well as the validation of the results
from task (2.1)b the most recent localized accident data will be used. In addition, data on traffic
volumes will be obtained from traffic counts or from the traffic models if traffic counts are not available.
For determining the safety potential and subsequent ranking of the road sections additional data on
road infrastructure and surrounding are needed. In view of the scope of task (2.1)a the data will be
restricted to the data that are readily available in Flanders within the relevant departments (such as
speed limits, presence of barriers, number of lanes). In addition, some missing variables (e.g. number
of junctions alongside road segments) will be constructed from available network data. These data will
be added to the road safety monitor in project 1.1.
For task (2.1)b data will be collected on site for 100 road sections. These data include infrastructural
characteristics such as the presence of cycling and pedestrian facilities, barriers, obstacles, … and
exposure data. For the exposure data a manual count during one (representative) hour with respect to
cars, cyclists and pedestrians will be held on each of the sites.
Output
The main output of task (2.1)a is a prioritized list of dangerous road sections. In 2012 this list will, in
accordance with the requirements of the European directive on road infrastructure safety
management, in the first place consist of dangerous highway segments. The list will be provided in a
form that is consistent with the tools used by the Flemish administration (GIS-layers or IT application).
The possibilities for a more dynamic tool as an aid to calculate rankings and monitor improvement will
be explored. Apart from the list, a report (in Dutch) will be delivered where the used data and the
methodology are described. For task (2.1)b, a report will be developed in which the technique to
calculate the Road Safety Score for a specific road section will be described. In the framework of this
project (related to task 2.1b) at least one paper will be submitted for publication in a scientific journal.
The implementation of the NSM and RSS tool and the visualization of the results will also be
incorporated in the road safety monitoring tool created in project 1.1.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.1 Network safety management
1
50%
75%
100%
p.m.
Type
PY
Name
75%
75%
75%
Researcher
3
Kurt Van Hout1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
47
Project (2.2): Analyzing road crash patterns by using collision diagrams
Abstract
Available crash data is still often underutilized. Most road safety studies making use of crash data only
take into account crash counts. A lot of more detailed crash information is, although available,
rarely analyzed. This can result in overlooking important insights in road safety. In the studies
proposed in this project, the position of the crash at the road location is analyzed. Most of the required
data, including collision diagrams, are collected from local police zones. A standard road location
type is segmented into different sections, that are used to cluster the crashes. A statistical analysis
making use of detailed infrastructural and crash characteristics is applied to gain detailed insights in
the crash patterns at these types of locations. The results from the project will help to design roads
safer, because it will show what parts of typical road locations require what particular attention
from road designers.
Problem statement
Road safety analysis often makes use of crash data to evaluate the safety performance of
intersections. Often, these analyses do not make use of detailed information of the crashes, but
take the total number of crashes at a certain location as unit of analysis (the total number of crashes,
or the number of crashes of a certain type) (Elvik, Høye, Vaa, & Sørensen, 2009). Some of these
techniques that usually take the number of crashes as unit of analysis are before-after studies (e.g.
Daniels et al., 2008b) and risk model analyses (e.g. De Ceunynck et al., 2011a; Daniels et al., 2010d).
However these types of analysis are often subject to limitations of the datasets where they are applied
for (Washington et al., 2003). As opposed to road safety studies making use of aggregated crash data,
there is in-depth crash research. In-depth research can be described as a detailed research that is
executed mostly at the crash scene, including a reconstruction of all phases and events of a crash
(OECD, 1988). In contrast to regular crash registration, many additional variables are recorded in indepth research to better understand what exactly happened (e.g. personal characteristics, origin,
destination, state of mind, use of restraint systems, interpretation of the situation, behaviour prior to
the crash, vehicle characteristics and condition, familiarity with the location and infrastructural
information) (Davidse, 2007). Because of the requirement of highly detailed information about the
crashes, the gathering of relevant data is an important issue. Data gathering is laborious, requires a
high level of expertise and is very costly (Hagstroem et al., 2010). In many cases, the extent of the
available data is disproportional to the number of crashes analyzed, i.e. the number of (possible)
variables for analysis can be higher than the number of data records. This can be problematic for
quantitative analysis of the data.
This project will make better use of available detailed crash data than most aggregated road safety
studies. In that sense, the project takes a step towards in-depth studies, however without losing
two of the main advantages of the aggregated analyses, i.e.:


The data is already largely available in official databases, no additional data gathering is
required
Quantitative analyses can be better and more reliably executed
The most important crash feature that will be included in this project, but that is rarely included in
aggregated crash studies, is the exact position of the crash. This information can be collected from
collision diagrams that are recorded by the local police. Crashes at different parts of a specific type
of road location can have different crash characteristics. Therefore, different parts of the type of
road location can have other crucial points of attention in the road design. Furthermore, the method
allows to explore specific differences between different types of road users (e.g. motorcyclists) at that
type of location in detail. Insights into crash characteristics for specific road users could also reveal a
need for non-infrastructural measures, e.g. influencing driver behaviour in case of an
overrepresentation of crashes involving alcohol or drugs.
Dividing a road location into different sections has been applied before in naturalistic driving studies,
focusing on driver behaviour (e.g. Gstalter & Fastenmeier, 2010), but not in road infrastructure studies.
Policy relevance
By analyzing road crashes using their exact position at a particular type of road location, new insights
will be gained to improve road design from a safety perspective. Analysis of crash data is of crucial
importance to be able to improve road safety (Vlaamse Overheid, 2011). This project makes use of
48
data that are available, but that are currently not yet brought together and are insufficiently used. The
project is therefore data-driven and leads to a better use of already available data. The case
studies will present the Flemish Government a detailed insight in the crash propensity of the
different sections of a standard type of road location. The information in the final reports of these
studies will improve knowledge about the safety impact of road infrastructure design. Depending on
the study subject, the findings will be useful to verify and improve the guidelines presented in the
guideline book of safe roads and intersections (Vademecum Veilige Wegen en Kruispunten (AWV,
2009)) or other guideline books such as the guideline book of bicycle facilities (Vademecum
Fietsvoorzieningen (AWV, 2008)).
Methodology
Task (2.2)a: Data gathering
Quite some information about crashes is registered in the information processing system for police
zones (Vlaams Ministerie van Mobiliteit en Openbare Werken, 2008), but is not yet sufficiently
exploited. The analyses will make maximal use of available data by analyzing the information
from these new, rich crash databases in detail.
Research questions that need to be answered by the data analysis are formulated before the data
gathering to ensure that all required data are collected. Crash data will be obtained from local police
zones. A reliable data set should contain at least about 30 locations and about 400 crashes.
Information that will be collected contains at least the following information:



Exact position of the crash, determined from collision diagrams. Since this is the most critical
information for this research, and not all local police forces systematically accumulate this
information, this is a special point of attention.
Crash characteristics: time of crash (day and hour), condition of pavement and light, crash
severity, types of road users involved, alcohol or drugs involved.
Location characteristics: partly depend on the type of location that is analyzed, but usually
contains traffic flow, speed limit, number of lanes, head-of-way regulation, type of bicycle
facilities, presence of a median, etc. These characteristics will be collected from available
databases if possible, or observed on-site
Task (2.2)b: Development of study framework
After the data gathering, a protocol is formulated to divide the type of location into different
sections. This will be based both on a review of existing scientific literature and on preliminary
analyses of the dataset. Based on collision diagrams that are obtained from the local police, the
crashes of the dataset are assigned to one of the sections.
Task (2.2)c: Data analysis
A number of possible techniques can be used to analyze the data. Chi-square tests for independence
can be used to statistically test specific hypotheses and answer specific research questions (Daniels,
Brijs, & Casters, n.d.; Washington, Karlaftis, & Mannering, 2003). I.e., is the number of crashes at a
certain section significantly higher than on other sections, is the crash severity for a particular type of
road user (e.g. motorcyclists) higher than for other types of road users, do locations with a particular
design characteristic have a different crash rate than other locations, etc. Alternatively, data mining
techniques can be used to discover useful patterns or information from the database (Zhang & Zhang,
2002). A number of data mining techniques could be used to analyze the data of this project, a.o.
latent class clustering (Depaire, Wets, & Vanhoof, 2008), association rules algorithms (De Ceunynck
et al., 2011c; Geurts, 2006), and decision-tree based classification such as (CART) (Breiman et al.,
1984; De Ceunynck et al., 2011b).
The selection of the investigated cases will be done by mutual agreement between the researchers
and the Flemish authority. A list of locations for which the proposed technique is applicable, includes:



Signalized intersections (conflict-free or not conflict-free)
Priority intersections
Zebra crossings
49
This list is not limitative. The proposed research methodology is comparable for the different projects.
Data
The case studies make maximally use of data that are available in official databases, but that are
currently not yet sufficiently used. The study is therefore data-driven and results in a more efficient use
of existing data. Data about the position and other characteristics of the crash are gathered from the
databases of local police zones. The infrastructural characteristics of the location will be collected from
available databases if possible, or observed on-site.
Output
The project will consist of 2 case studies. Each case study executed in this project results in a
research report with a separate section of policy recommendations that specifies whether changes to
existing guideline books (e.g. AWV, 2008, 2009) are desirable. The report will be written in Dutch.
The intention is to write also an scientific journal publication based on each of the studies.
Furthermore, the studies will also be offered to one or more popular-scientific publications in order to
disseminate the results of the studies to a wider audience.
It is proposed to dedicate the first case study to priority intersections. The content of the second case
study will be defined when drawing up the yearly program for 2013.
Team & Planning
In the assigned time frame of this project, it is estimated that two case studies can be performed. One
of these case studies will be executed in 2012, and the second one in 2013.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.2
1
Analyzing road crash patterns
by using collision diagrams
Type
PY
Name
1
N.1
50%
50%
Ph. D. student
p.m.
p.m.
Ph. D. student
p.m. Tim De Ceunynck1
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
50
Project (2.3): Spatial approach of traffic safety
Abstract
In this project, an area based approach towards traffic safety is elaborated. We will analyze:



the relation between traffic characteristics and the surrounding urban, suburban or rural
environments;
interactions between land use, transport infrastructures, road user behaviour and their safety
impacts.
This in depth analysis will be elaborated through a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis
techniques in case studies, selected in urban, suburban and rural environments. Typical problem
areas for Flanders, which will lead to the selection of the cases are:



densely populated suburban areas near highway exits and access roads, with complex
networks of local roads cut through by congested regional roads;
popular recreational roads attracting large quantities of cyclists;
crowded urban public spaces designed for mixed use of road infrastructure.
These analyses will explore the gaps in existing data to properly assess traffic safety in specific
locations, and the potential for improvement by using new data collection and analysis techniques,
such as video images collected for mobile mapping purposes. The findings from these case studies
will be compared to the safety characteristics obtained from geostatistical analyses of accident data
and road infrastructure characteristics to explore complementarity.
Problem statement
Differences in terms of location can be expected when analyzing traffic safety. Road accident risk is
determined by traffic conditions and exposure (Posner et al., 2002). Traffic conditions and exposure
depend largely on local characteristics and circumstances, which are not measured by standardized
statistics, and can best be understood through in-depth qualitative methods, such as field tests and
surveys, interviews or focus group interviews. Field tests can provide useful information about the
behavior of road users but people often behave differently when knowing being tested; this is also true
for surveys were people may give socially correct answers which do not necessarily reflect what they
really think or feel. Some existing techniques can overcome these disadvantages but are not tested
full for their suitability in traffic safety studies. Video-analyses and eye-tracking are promising methods
to overcome above mentioned disadvantages and start analyses from more objective data. In the
literature, interesting techniques are described, using „moving object‟ recognition and tracking
techniques in videos to calculate exposure, simulate time to collision, etc. (e.g. Laureshyn, 2010; Lin et
al., 2011; Reulke et al., 2008; Ryan et al., 2007). These are mostly working with fixed cameras, using
bird-eye views. Meanwhile, the mobile mapping techniques are increasingly used to produce and
update road network databases. In Flanders, the most comprehensive mobile mapping project was
conducted to produce a database of road traffic signs (http://verkeersbordendatabank.be/).
Video images are useful on their own to analyze the perception of the environment. By working with
images at road user height, visibility can also be assessed. The combination with eye-tracking
techniques offers an additional dimension in the understanding of road use behavior (Nevelsteen et
al., 2010). In this research project, the use of video images and photographs such as those used for
mobile mapping, will be combined with analyses approaches used to assess traffic safety effects of
land use and traffic conditions in a specific area. Also, images analyzed from the point of view of a
specific group, help to better understand the perception of those groups of specific environments and
traffic conditions.
Eye-tracking will deliver objective data on perception and attention in specific traffic environments and
is therefore a promising tool to evaluate traffic scene more quantitative and objective.
Policy relevance
Flanders aims for a dynamic society (e.g. Flanders in action http://vlaandereninactie.be/). This implies
an efficient, safe and attractive transport system. Flanders‟ constructed landscape makes it difficult to
combine these characteristics, due to local complex situations, such as: 1) densely populated
suburban areas near highway exits and access roads, with complex networks of local roads cut
through by congested regional roads; 2) popular recreational roads attracting large quantities of
51
cyclists; 3) crowded urban public spaces designed for mixed use of road infrastructure.
Even after improving and harmonizing existing databases (WP1), local (un)safety conditions cannot be
fully understood. They require zooming in to specific locations to really understand the interaction
between traffic and the environment. New insights can then be found to better understand local
circumstances, perception and travel behavior, which are not yet expressed in indicators used in
existing databases. Qualitative research can contribute to the existing more quantitative measures.
The obtained insights in local circumstances, perception and travel behavior will complement the
current classification of Flanders‟ road network.
Mobility plans can be adapted to gain better insight in the behavior of people in specific locations.
Evenly important, is the framing of local safety analysis in macro and meso scale conditions. The
multi-level approach will search for impacts of traffic management measures on one level of roads, to
underlying levels (see also 5.3). These impacts will be examined in terms of the local conditions: how
are the existing interactions between traffic and land use affected by infrastructure measures taken
elsewhere, and how does this affect the safety?
Methodology
This project explores the behavior of specific groups in existing traffic situations in terms of traffic
safety in an urban versus rural area. The influence of transport policies in this respect as well as
guidance on how to take traffic safety and environmental equity issues into account in the transport
policy process will be handled. Therefore, three tasks are defined.
Task (2.3)a: Information gathering and first assessment
In the first task of the project, based on literature review, a state-of-the-art overview on the most
important parameters to take into account and possible (quantitative and qualitative) methods, will be
identified. A thorough enumeration of currently used traffic safety indicators and assessment tools is
made. What is the base of decision making concerning the adaptation of current road infrastructure to
current traffic situations? Which statistics can be extracted from those measures and which analyses
are made to serve the objectives? Based on this review, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities and Potential) analysis of current traffic safety assessment methods for spatial and
circumstantial differentiation of traffic safety, will be determined. Finally, suitable locations and times
for the rural and urban case study will be identified
Task (2.3.)b: Case studies
In the case studies, the environments will be studied through local observations, combined with videoanalyses of mobile mapping images and eye tracking methods of specific groups of road users. The
aim is to explore the possibilities of both techniques and to propose improvements for currently used
safety indicators and assessment tools.
The video images are not taken from above, but show the environment from a horizontal adult
viewpoint (child viewpoint is also possible). One of the main advantages of recording from a horizontal
viewpoint is that the behavior of road users becomes easier to understand. It is possible to observe
individual behavior of different road users and their interactions with features in the environment. This
can be useful to assess safety effects of morphological elements, both on and near the road (visual
barriers, physical thresholds, …).
With eye tracking, attention allocation can be measured. To what features on the road and in the
surroundings do people (pedestrians, cyclists, …) pay attention? In combination with the observation
of their behavior, the attentional statistics offer significant information of what features of an
environment determine the behavior of people the most. In summary the goal of the case studies is to
provide new information about a certain traffic environment that allows for a more detail evaluation of
that environment.
Task (2.3)c: Interaction between levels and generalization
The third part of the research will examine issues of transferability of the case study results and of the
assessment method for other locations in Flanders.
52
Data
Firstly, currently existing information will be used (such as socio-economic and sociodemographic data
from ADSEI (Belgium Statistics) and the Studiedienst van de Vlaamse Regering (Research
Department of the Flemish Government), localized accident and infrastructural data.
The potential of streetview images obtained through mobile mapping techniques, will also be
examined.
New images will be recorded in the case studies, using different cameras on tripods to record videos
of the road from different road user perspectives.
Output
The output will of a report discussing the results and policy recommendations based on the collection
and analysis of data from the case studies as well as an evaluation of the new data collection
techniques (such as video images). Through WP1, this output will contribute to further elaboration of
the road safety databases and assessment tools.
2012: report on eye-tracking techniques applied to explain behavior of different non-motorized target
groups.
2013: report on interactions of non-motorized road users among each-other and with their environment
in different circumstances, based on eye-level videos
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.3 Spatial approach to traffic safety
1
Type
PY
100%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Name
Kristof Nevelsteen2
Thérèse
Steenbergen2
53
4.3.3 WORK PACKAGE 3: HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN RELATION TO SYSTEM COMPONENTS
VEHICLE-ENVIRONMENT
P ROBLEM
STATEMENT
The role of the human being cannot be underestimated in traffic safety. Recent research indicates
that human error contributes to as much as 75% of all road crashes (Medina et al., 2004). Most
research on human error has therefore followed a „person-centered‟ approach. Nevertheless, it is often
the interaction of (improper) human behaviour with other system components (road infrastructure,
environment, the vehicle) that finally lead to a road crash. Therefore, instead of looking at different
contributing elements individually, it has become more popular to look at road safety from a systems
perspective. The latter approach recognizes that fallibility is part of the human condition and that errors
are the inevitable consequence of inadequate conditions residing within complex systems (such as the
road transport system). A well-known system description in this respect is Reasons “Swiss cheese
model” of accident causation (Reason, 1990). The systems approach to road accidents purports that
the errors made by individuals at the sharp end are a consequence of the error-causing or latent
conditions residing within the (traffic) system. Unlike the person approach, human error is no longer
seen as the primary cause of accidents, rather it is treated as a consequence of the latent conditions
within the system (Salmon et al., 2005). According to the model, accidents occur when, on rare
occasions, the holes in the system‟s defences line up in a way that allows the accident trajectory to
breach each of the different defence layers. However, on most occasions, accident trajectories are
halted by defences built in in each of the defence layers of the system.
Figure 2: Adaptation of Reason‟s Swiss Cheese Model
A well-known systems description in traffic safety literature, and here applied to the Swiss cheese
model in Figure 2, is the driver-environment-vehicle (Carsten et al., 1989). Consequently, road
accidents occur as the result of a failure in one or more elements (driver, environment, vehicle) of the
road system. Policy makers should therefore look at the road safety problem from a „holistic‟ point of
view and find solutions at all the different levels of the road safety system.
A IMS AND
POLICY RELEVANCE
54
As described in the problem statement, innovative solutions are needed on each of the 3 dimensions
(driver, vehicle and environment) of the road safety system in order to „fill the holes‟ in the Swiss
cheese model.
In project 3.1, the focus is on the human behaviour component in the safety system. More
specifically, the objective is to explore parent-offspring relationships with respect to traffic safety and to
come up with specific policy recommendations for an effective management of parenting as a
behavioural change strategy in education and awareness campaigns. It has been shown that through
their educative responsibility, parents have a unique opportunity to shape and influence their children‟s
behaviour (Taubman – Ben-Ari, Mikulincer, & Gillath, 2005). In addition, since parents are the primary
influence for socialization of children, they continue to have an effect on behaviour throughout life
(Bartholomew et al., 2006). Studies have shown that, when appropriately practiced, parental
monitoring and restriction can reduce adolescent traffic violations, risky driving behaviours, and motor
vehicle crashes (Hartos et al., 2000, 2001). We therefore believe that in the context of a policy
strategy of „lifelong learning‟ (FCVV, 2011; Vlaams Parlement, 2009), the investigation of this
relationship between parents and children (called parent-offspring socialization) is of crucial
importance. Also in the European policy orientations for road safety 2011-2020 (European
Commission, 2010) more attention is devoted to the role of the accompanying person in the driver
training. Indeed, positive attitudes, skills and behaviour taught by professional educators (e.g.
teachers in school, professional driving educators) might well be reinforced (or offset) if parents do (or
do not) show and carry out the correct behaviour themselves. Social learning theory has
demonstrated however that a positive transfer of attitudes, skills and behaviour is subject to some
conditions and does not happen automatically. Therefore, in this project we will investigate to what
extent these conditions are currently met, and how policy makers can take concrete actions to improve
the socialization process between parents and their offspring.
In project 3.2, the focus lies on the interaction between environmental and the behavioural
component in the safety system. More specifically, it is the objective of this project to gain a deeper
insight in crash causation factors based on the (video-based) observation and analysis of traffic
conflicts and of normal interactive behaviour on designated parts of the road infrastructure. The use of
conflict observation techniques instead of classical accident data is motivated by the fact that 1) there
are several drawbacks with the use of accident data to gain timely insight information on accident
causes or the effectiveness of safety interventions and 2) new methodologies and techniques of
conflict observation are reaching the stage of maturity and provide insights that cannot be provided by
the classical accident based data investigation. The relevance for policy makers can be motivated in
several ways. First of all, in the call document for proposals for the new Policy Research Center for
Traffic Safety, the need for in-depth accident analysis is requested as one of the two major topics for
research. Secondly, the call document also explicitly asks for additional research into the effectiveness
of road safety interventions. This project meets both of these objectives because 1) it enables the
analysis of new types of data (near conflicts and normal interactive behaviour) underlying the process
of accident causation and 2) it also enables to assess the effectiveness of different types of road
safety interventions much more quickly compared to the classical approach in which sufficient
amounts of accident data (often over several years) need to be collected before any statistically valid
conclusions can be drawn.
Finally, in project 3.3 the focus lies on the interaction between road user behaviour, the vehicle
and the infrastructure component in the road safety system. More specifically, the main thread in
the project is research into the expected safety impacts of a new electrified transport mode, namely
electric bicycles. The project first of all brings together the existing data and knowledge on functional
bicycle use and safety and cycling infrastructure in Flanders. This information is complemented by
new data, collected via GPS logging and Stated Preference surveys. Based on the empirical analysis
of this information, a refined bicycle model is developed to be integrated in a multimodal planning
model of Flanders. This should enable the quantitative analysis of the safety impacts of changes in
functional bicycle use brought about by changes in bicycle policy and infrastructure, and more
widespread use of electric bicycles.
The relevance of this project towards policy makers relates directly to the call document for proposals
for the new Policy Research Center for Traffic Safety since additional research is called for in the area
55
of innovative technologies in transportation. Secondly, the motivation to choose for electric modes of
transportation is inspired by the recent increased policy attention, both internationally and regionally,
into the quickly increasing electrification of transportation modes in the light of obtaining clean and
energy efficient vehicles of the future (e.g. see page 8 of European Commission, 2010; page 37-38 of
Vlaams Parlement, 2009). Furthermore, the Flemish Government just recently started up 5 „living labs‟
to facilitate innovation and adoption of electric vehicles, which also stresses the importance of
additional research into this domain. It is not yet understood at this moment what will be the safety
consequences of a larger scale adoption of these new modes of transport (Schoon & Huijskens,
2011). Finally, new data and knowledge will be contributed to the multimodal planning models of
Flanders, allowing ex-ante assessment of the safety impacts resulting from infrastructural and other
measures and trends such as an increase in electric cycling.
A NNUAL
PROGRAMME
2012
Project 3.3 will start in 2012. This year will mainly be devoted to the preparation of the test population
launch, complemented with literature review. This comprises following activities:
-
-
Inventory and choice of technological solutions for GPS-logging and data management
Development of approach for the installation of the loggers on the bikes
Preparation of composition of test population
o Screen channels to find test persons (Fietsersbond, Bicycle shops selling electric
bicycles, …)
o Define a relevant composition of test population (age, sex, main use of bicycle,
houdehold composition,…)
o Setup contact methodoly for recruitment of test population
Literature review on GPS-based behavior analyses
Preparation of diaries for test population
Preparatory development of questionnaires for stated preference survey
56
P ROJECT
DESCRIPTION
Project (3.1): Parent-offspring socialization as a lifelong learning strategy to promote traffic safety: opportunities &
threats
Abstract
Parental support and monitoring might be a very fruitful strategy to further increase the effectiveness
of intervention programs focused on the promotion of traffic safety. This counts for a wide variety of
traffic-related behaviours and applies to children throughout their whole lifespan as active participants
in traffic. The successfulness of parenting however is dependent upon a set of critical conditions.
Parents should convey guidance and support appropriately, i.e., with a minimum of respect and sense
of autonomy. Additionally, parents have to provide a solid, positive role model, meaning they should
consistently show the desired behaviour and reinforce it among their children. Finally, in order for
parenting to result in a behavioural change that is persistent over time, parents should focus also on
their children‟s overall attitude (or mental disposition) towards the desired behaviour. Without the
proper motivation, safe behaviour cannot be sustained.
The primary aim of this project is to explore parent-offspring relationships with respect to
traffic safety and to come up with specific policy recommendations for an effective
management of parenting as a behavioural change strategy to increase traffic safety.
Problem statement
Scientists have long noted an association between social relationships and health (House, Landis &
Umberson, 2004). Individuals indeed exist and behave as part of larger social webs of
interdependencies. From social learning theory, we know that individuals acquire new behaviours
and change old ones through direct experience and positive feedback offered by others, through selfreinforcement, or through indirect or vicarious experiences of others being reinforced (or not punished)
for particular behaviours (Bandura, 1986).
Social learning, intergenerational, and socialization theories have placed significant emphasis on
intra-familial processes of behaviour transmission and focused more particularly on parents as
offspring role models (Kandel & Andrews, 1987). Through their educative responsibility, parents
have a unique opportunity to shape and influence their children‟s behaviour (Taubman – Ben-Ari et al.,
2005). In addition, since parents are the primary influence for socialization of children, they continue to
have an effect on behaviour throughout life (Bartholomew et al., 2006).
Parent-offspring socialization mechanisms, going from vicarious learning to social support and
enforcement have been explored and investigated for different types of traffic-related behaviours such
as pedestrian competence (Lam, 2000, 2005; Morrongiello, & Barton, 2009; Rosenbloom et al., 2009),
bicycle helmet wearing (Loubeau, 2000), in-vehicle restraint use (Agran et al., 1998) and driving style
(Bianchi, & Summala, 2004; Ferguson et al., 2001; Miller, & Taubman – Ben-Ari, 2010; SimonsMorton, & Hartos, 2003; Williams et al., 2006; Wilson et al., 2006) and with respect to different age
categories (i.e., pre-schoolers, children, teenagers, late adolescents, young adults, etcetera).
The majority of prior research concentrates on parental influence with respect to driving behaviour of
late adolescents, most of which are in the age of learning to drive, or having obtained a licence only
recently (i.e., so-called young novice drivers). In general, it is found that parents‟ driving style
transfers to their children (Bianchi, & Summala, 2004; Ferguson et al., 2001; Miller & Taubman –
Ben-Ari, 2010; Taubman – Ben-Ari et al., 2005). Next to that, research looking at the role of parents as
safety enforcers indicates that parent-imposed rules regulating teen driving could indeed be effective
in limiting exposure to higher-risk driving conditions, as long as these rules are strict enough, clearly
stated and based on mutual parent-teen agreement (Hartos et al., 2004). When appropriately
practiced, parental monitoring and restriction can reduce adolescent traffic violations, risky
driving behaviours, and motor vehicle crashes (Hartos et al., 2000, 2001).
As a consequence, specialists worldwide have started to explore the usefulness of parent-offspring
socialization as a strategy for traffic safety education and promotion. For instance, various Graduated
Driver Licensing (GDL) programs (e.g., the Connecticut Checkpoints Program or the Israelian Green
Light for Life Program) are experimenting with more intimate involvement of parents as additional
supervisors of young drivers‟ compliance with GDL-imposed driving restrictions (Brookland, & Begg,
2011; Hartoset al., 2005; Simons-Morton, 2007; Simons-Morton et al., 2006; Taubman – Ben-Ari, &
Lotan, 2011). Senserrick (2007) confirms this trend for Australian young driver education, training and
licensing. A nation-wide survey on current programs brings her to the conclusion that there is a clear
57
shift towards more actively including parents in teen driving. A recent approach in the U.S. and
Israel is to extend parental mentoring by means of event-triggered video devices and in-vehicle driving
monitoring technologies (Guttman, & Gesser-Edelsburg, 2011; Guttman, & Lotan, 2011; McGehee et
al., 2007).
Importantly however, the successfulness of increased parental involvement in young novice
driver education and training is subject to various critical conditions. As demonstrated by
Wortman, & Lehman (1985), positively intended social support is not always perceived or experienced
as helpful by the receiver and can even result in negative perceptions and aversive reactions.
Firstly, when mentoring young novice drivers it is important that guidance and advise are offered in
the appropriate manner, i.e., with a minimum of respect and sense for autonomy. For instance,
young novice drivers‟ attitude to accompanied driving by parents, is largely determined by perceived
parenting styles (Taubman – Ben-Ari, 2010; Taubman – Ben-Ari & Lotan, 2011).
Secondly, it is essential that parents themselves behave appropriately in traffic. Unfortunately,
this is not always the case. The intergenerational transmission of reckless behaviours such as
impaired driving (Gulliver, & Begg, 2004; Maldonado-Molina et al., 2011; Rosenbloom et al., 2010;
Shope et al., 2001), riding with drinking drivers (Chen et al., 2008), speeding (Fleiter et al., 2010),
vehicle moving offenses such as incorrect turns, crossing solid lines, or unsafe lane changes (Wilson
et al., 2006), dangerous overtaking (Forward, 2009), etcetera, is well documented.
Finally, research into health behaviour and education shows that, for a desired behavioural change to
be durable, parents in their role of road safety mentors should not only focus on their children‟s
behaviour itself, but on their underlying motivation as well. This motivation in turn, is dependent
upon a series of so-called socio-cognitive determinants that have been well described in various
theoretical models such as the Theory of Planned Behaviour, Protection Motivation Theory, Health
Belief Model, Social Cognition Theory, or Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour (Bartholomew et al.,
2006).
Prior studies show how parents themselves are not always scoring well on these socio-cognitive
determinants and motivation. For instance, parents sometimes do not have sufficient understanding of
traffic hazards in order to adequately promote safety. While a national U.S.-survey reported that
parents have little knowledge of pedestrian and bicycle hazards (Eichelberger, & Gotschall, 1990),
studies done by Simons-Morton & Hartos (2003) and Williams et al. (2006) showed that parents do not
appear to appreciate just how risky driving is for novice drivers and that they tend to exert less control
over their teenage children‟s driving than might be expected. Another problem relates to parents‟
personal norms and values and the willingness to implement their own safety principles. Hellinga et al.
(2007) for example established how the majority of parents understands important criteria for choosing
safe vehicles for their teenagers, even though they actually select vehicles that provide inferior crash
protection. Still another issue is the lack of teaching skills and self-confidence among parents.
Morongiello, & Barton (2009) for instance, found that parents generally do know how to safely cross
streets and that they are motivated to model and supervise, but that only few actually provide
instructions when crossing with their children. With respect to parenting while driving, Tronsmoen
(2011) asserted how, contrary to professional instructors, lay instructors (such as parents) often avoid
the most challenging aspects of driver training, probably because they do not feel very comfortable
about it. Finally, safety-related opnions and risk perceptions can substantially differ between
generations (Rafaely et al., 2006). Parents are not always fully aware of how their children look at
safety and sometimes hold biased views on how well they think their children cope with danger or
resist to unfavourable pressures in the (social) environment (Taubman – Ben-Ari, 2010; Taubman –
Ben-Ari & Lotan, 2011).
The primary aim of the project further outlined below, is to explore parent-offspring relationships with
respect to traffic safety. More in particular, the focus will be on the critical conditions (outlined above)
to which a succesfull implementation of parenting strategies is subject.
58
Policy relevance
Policy relevance for this project can be motivated as follows:
Firstly, parent-offspring socialization is applicable to a wide variety of traffic-related behaviours. As
such, it can be used for educative initiatives focusing on the more vulnerable road users (such as
pedestrians, cyclists, moped drivers, motorcyclists) as well. Useful strategies to further improve
prevention and education initiatives tailored more specifically at these road users, is a major policy
priority (Departement MOW, 2003; Departement MOW, 2008).
Secondly, Flemish policy explicitly promotes a segmented approach towards the development and
implementation of traffic safety-oriented interventions (Vlaams Parlement 2009; Departement MOW,
2008). Parent-offspring socialization fits perfectly within this view since parents remain in close contact
with their children at each stage of their life as an active participant in traffic. As such they continue to
have detailed insight into the specific ideas, needs, opinions and desires of their children as well as on
how these evolve over time.
Thirdly, since parents continue to have an effect on their children‟s behaviour throughout life, parentoffspring socialization matches perfectly with the philosophy of lifelong learning, which is heavily
supported and encouraged by the Flemish policy (Vlaams Parlement 2009; Departement MOW,
2008).
Fourthly, the Flemish Foundation for Traffic Knowledge (FFT) currently already has implemented
different educational initiatives that are fundamentally based on parent-offsrping relationships. While
Verkeersouders is a primary- and secondary school-based progam focusing on the role of (grand)
parents as role models for their children, Start to Drive is related to youngsters in the age of 17-22
and experiments with more narrow parent involvement in the process of learning how to drive.
Methodology
Task (3.1)a: Selecting the target group(s)
The more precise type(s) of traffic-related behaviour(s) to be studied are primarily dependent upon the
target group‟s age range (i.e., preschoolers, children, teenagers, late adolescents, young adults) and
the role they take up as a road user (i.e., pedestrian, cyclist, motorcyclist, car driver, car passenger).
This can be determined in narrow consultation with the Flemish Government.
Task (3.1)b: Selecting the target behaviour(s)
Once the target group is determined (for instance, child pedestrians, teenage cyclists, adolescent
moped drivers, or young novice drivers), a decision has to be made in terms of the level(s) at which
behaviour is to be studied (i.e., general vs. specific). Studying behaviour at the general level would for
instance mean we look at driving or cycling while at the specific level, we would be looking at more
detailed aspects of those general types of behaviours. In case of driving for example, this could be
speeding or impaired driving or non-use of safety restraints, etcetera.
Task (3.1)c: Identifying the key-determinants of the target behaviour(s)
In order to be able to understand parents‟ and childrens‟ behaviour(s) under study and to avoid an
eventual intervention program based on the principle of parenting to address the wrong variables, the
key-determinants of the target behaviour(s) have to be identified. To that purpose, a thorough review
of the literature will be conducted. In order not to miss any important variables, the research team will
not limit its scope to literature within traffic safety. Besides that, literature within the fields of health- &
social psychology will be consulted as well because it contains several useful models for the prediction
and understanding of human behaviour (e.g., Theory of Planned Behaviour, Protection Motivation
Theory, Health Belief Model, Social Cognition Theory, Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour, etcetera). In
combination, a round of focus group discussions (parents and children should give their opinion
independently in order not to have them influence each other) could be organized with representatives
of the target group in order to comment on what comes out of the literature and to further complete the
list of key-determinants if necessary.
59
Task (3.1)d: Constructing a theoretical model
Once the key-determinants of the behaviour(s) under study have been identified, they wil be related
with each other in a theoretical model that will be empirically verified. In determining these mutual
relationships, we will adopt an evidence-based approach (Bartholomew et al., 2006). That is, the
available literature will be consulted in order to find support for the proposed structure of the
theoretical model.
Task (3.1)e: Questionnaire development
The concepts included in the theoretical model will be operationalised by means of multiple-item
measurement scales. Besides the fact that the existing literature contains reliable and validated
measurement instruments for a wide range of concepts involved in this kind of research, IMOB can
build upon quite an extensive prior experience with traffic safety-related questionnaires alike (Brijs et
al., forthcoming a; Brijs et al., 2010a; De Jong et al., 2010). Before its final implementation, a first
version of the questionnaires (i.e., one for the parents and one for their children) will be subjected to a
small-scale pilot test.
Task (3.1)f: Pilot testing
A subsample of representatives (i.e., parents and their children in separate groups) of the target group
will fill out their version of the questionnaires (i.e., one for the parents and one for the children).
Afterwards, they can comment on the selection and wording of items, scale formats and instructions,
etcetera, and the questionnaires will be modified accordingly.
Task (3.1)g: Sample recruitement
Since the whole project builds upon parent-children dyads, the best way to proceed in terms of sample
recruitement (we will recruit at least 200 respondents) would be to involve the existing school network.
This could be done for instance, in narrow partnership with the Flemish Foundation for Traffic
Knowledge (FFT). IMOB and FFT have cooperated successfully in other projects before (Brijs et al,
2010a): Evaluation of the On the Road post-license education program).
Task (3.1)h: Data collection & analysis
Cf. section below
Data
Data for this project will be collected within a classic cross-sectional survey design. The questionnaires
will be self-administered by the respondents and can be offered in paper-pencil or digital format.
Respondents, will receive a series of statements and/or questions and can indicate their answer on
traditional uni- and/or bipolar 5- or 7-point scales in Likert or semantic differential style.
The data analysis, will go through five steps: (1) screening and cleaning, (2) descriptive statistics
(means, standard deviations, etcetera), (3) validity and reliability of the different concepts included in
the theoretical model by means of principal component exploratory factor analysis with varimax
rotation and Cronbach‟s alpha, (4) Pearson‟s correlation, and (5) ordinary least squares regression
analysis.
The research team will also apply advanced statistical techniques such as Structural Equation
Modelling ). Examples of the application of this technique by the research team can be found in (e.g.,
Brijs et al., 2011c; Cools et al., 2011).
Output
A Dutch research report and an English journal article to appear in an international peer reviewed
traffic safety journal.
60
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.1
1
Parent-offspring socialization as
a lifelong learning strategy to
promote traffic safety:
opportunities & threats
Type
PY
Name
50%
50%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
N.1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
61
Project (3.2): Evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures using on-site behavioural observation
Abstract
Because of restrictions to the availability of crash data (e.g. the absence of most behavioural and
situational aspects), it is often difficult to obtain a fast evaluation of the impact of a particular
infrastructural measure or change in traffic regulation. This project makes use of on-site
behavioural observation and conflict observation to gather detailed information related to road
users behaviour, that can be used to evaluate the safety impact of the measure of interest. Some
interesting topics that could be dealt with in this project are suggested, but the proposed techniques
are flexible enough to be applied to a wide number of measures. The Flemish government can
choose the measures that they consider most important or most urgent to evaluate. The studies gather
behavioural information using a standardized form that is formulated in advance, identifying
behavioural aspects that are most important to the study. Gathered video footage is analyzed by a
subcontractor using automated video processing to provide objective measurements of serious
conflicts (near-crashes). The project offers the advantage that a fast evaluation of policy or road
design measures is obtained, that not only provides an outcome evaluation of the measure (“does
the measure improve road safety or not?”), but also a process evaluation (“why does the measure
(not) improve road safety?”).
Problem statement
Traditionally, most road safety research makes use of crash data, not only to determine locations that
require attention because they are unsafe, but also to evaluate measures that have been taken to
improve road safety. Although research based on crash data has proven very useful and made
significant contributions to road safety, the use of crash data suffers from some important issues.
The rare nature of crashes results in a low number of registered crashes, making the analyses
vulnerable to the influence of random variation (Laureshyn et al., 2010). The underreporting of
crashes is another issue (Daniels et al., 2010b; Lammar, 2006b). Furthermore, an ethical issue
arises, because the evaluation of measures requires several years of crash data (Chin & Quek, 1997).
Therefore, it will take several years before a measure that is evaluated to be unsafe is reconsidered,
or a measure that is evaluated to be beneficial to road safety can be implemented in a larger scale or
at other locations. In both cases, the time delay allows a number of serious crashes to occur that could
have been avoided in case a faster evaluation tool could be used. And finally, possibly the most
important issue is that crash data usually cover little behavioral or situational characteristics of the
event, which strongly limits the possibilities for analysis (Laureshyn et al., 2010). Therefore, some
measures are very difficult to evaluate using traditional crash data analyses. It mainly concerns
the evaluation of infrastructural design particularities or details, and changes in legislation that will
have an impact on the way road users behave or interact in traffic. For instance, Van Campenhout
(2011) from the Flemish Ministry of Mobility and Public Works conducted a crash data analysis to
evaluate the safety effects of bending bicycle paths inwards or outwards at intersections, but she
concluded that insufficient data could be gathered to draw strong conclusions.
An approach that can be used for this type of evaluation studies, and that is currently gaining a
renewed interest is on-site behavioural observation. It makes use of data about road user behaviour
that is gathered on field at particular sites of interest.
Originally, researchers mainly observed traffic interactions to identify so-called serious conflicts. The
Swedish Traffic Conflict Technique (Hydén, 1987) is one of the techniques that has been developed in
the past that makes use of serious conflicts as a proxy for crashes. A conflict is defined as an event
where two road users with crossing courses would have collided if they had continued with unchanged
speed and direction (Guttinger, 1984). The reasoning behind the emergence of traffic conflicts
techniques is that serious conflicts are more common than crashes, and therefore allow the gathering
of more relevant events in a shorter time frame than crash data. Serious conflicts are considered as a
valid proxy for crashes to evaluate road safety (Hauer & Garder, 1986). In the framework of the policy
research centre for traffic safety, our institute has already gained experience with this technique,
and two reports have been published (Gysen et al., 2007; de Jong et al., 2007). An issue with traffic
conflict studies has always been that they made use of human observers to measure the conflicts,
which implied a risk of subjective judgments and a high data gathering cost. However, recent
advances in automated video processing have strongly increased the possibilities to measure
conflicts reliably and more cost-effectively based on video footage that is shot at the location of
interest (Ismail et al., 2009; Kastrinaki, Zervakis, & Kalaitzakis, 2003; Laureshyn, 2010; Saunier &
62
Sayed, 2007; Saunier, Sayed, & Ismail, 2010). This allows a more objective and detailed analysis of
traffic conflicts than possible in the previous traffic conflict studies that have been executed in the
policy research centre for traffic safety.
The usefulness of near accidents as a proxy for accidents is common use in safety studies in fields,
like for instance health care (Kessels-Habraken et al., 2010)
In addition to investigating serious conflicts, research incorporating normal interactive behaviour
between road users extends this approach by not only analyzing dangerous (extreme) events. The
observation of normal interactive behaviour can be particularly relevant to reveal the underlying
causes of why a particular measure is an improvement to road safety or not. As opposed to crash
data analyses, the observation of interactive behaviour therefore provides an insight into the road
safety process, not only the road safety outcome. In some recent studies, behavioural observation has
been used for instance to analyze illegal street crossing behaviour (Lange et al., 2011) and the
reliability of drivers in urban intersections (Gstalter & Fastenmeier, 2010).
Policy relevance
In Vlaams Parlement, 2009 and Vlaams Parlement, 2010 the importance of monitoring for the Flemish
transportation policy is highlighted. Not only road design is important, but also the way road users
react to this design (Vlaams Ministerie van Mobiliteit en Openbare Werken, 2008). This is analyzed indepth in this project. The project allows the Flemish government to obtain a fast evaluation of the
effectiveness of a number of road safety measures that are very difficult to evaluate using traditional
crash data. It involves new measures (chosen by the Flemish government) that are not yet
implemented on a large scale, and for which therefore little crash data is available, and measures for
which crash data is available but is insufficiently detailed for a good evaluation.
Methodology
In this project, case studies are executed to evaluate measures or changes in legislation that are
difficult to assess using crash data. Some suggestions of measures for which the proposed techniques
are very relevant as an evaluation tool, are for instance:




Right turn lane outside traffic light regulation at signalized intersections
Safety performance of bending bicycle paths in and out at intersections
Road user behaviour in a shared space environment
Road safety impact of legal proposition to permit bicyclists to turn right on a red light
This list is not limitative and it can be modified in consultation with the Roads & Traffic Agency of
the Flemish government, that needs to decide what measures or topics are considered most urgent or
most relevant. The research methodology that is formulated below is comparable for the different
projects.
Task (3.2)a: Development of study framework
In the first step, a scientifically sound protocol is developed to evaluate the measure of interest.
International literature is explored for relevant research about the topic. In this first step, the behaviour
of interest is defined and delimited, and the behaviour of interest and potentially interacting behaviours
are subdivided into relevant sub-behaviours. These sub-behaviours are translated to (binary or
categoric) variables that can be objectively observed or measured. Observation forms are
designed to standardize the data gathering process, which improve the reliability of the data.
Task (3.2)b: Selection of study locations
The data gathering starts by identifying relevant research locations. In evaluation studies using
crash data, typically data about a large number of locations is gathered to obtain a sufficiently large
dataset. A number of these locations has the measure or characteristic of interest, and the rest does
not. For instance, a number of intersections has bicycle paths bended out, while the rest of the
intersections does not. Using statistical techniques, it is identified whether the measure or
characteristic of interest has a significant impact on traffic safety or not. A disadvantage is, however,
that this dataset can never be completely homogeneous; the locations will differ from each other in a
number of characteristics that can have a confounding impact on the study results.
In an on-site behavioural observation study, the number of locations that are studied is a lot smaller,
63
because more useful data can be gathered from each individual location. One or two research
locations that have the measure or design characteristic of interest applied to it will be analyzed for
each case study. The road users‟ behaviour at these locations is then compared with one or two
comparison locations that do not have the measure or design characteristic. All locations are selected
in such a way that they are as comparable as possible, except for the measure or characteristic of
interest. For instance, if the study objective is to investigate whether bending out separated bicycle
paths at intersections improves road safety, one or two intersections with bent out separated bicycle
paths are compared with one or two intersections with regular separate bicycle paths. The locations
are as identical as possible, except for their bicycle path design. This implies that they will need to
have the same number of lanes, head-of-way regulation, lane width, speed limit, vehicle flows,…
Task (3.2)c: Data collection
At the location, an observer records the defined variables of the interactions of interest using
standardized forms. Depending on the number of variables that need to be collected, and the extent to
which these variables can be collected simultaneously, each study location will be analyzed for about
10 hours. One full week of video footage is shot at each location. This footage will allow to verify
information that is missing from the field observation, and to objectively measure the conflict severity
(see next task). Information about vehicle flows will be collected from the road authority, supplemented
with own countings.
Task (3.2)d: Data analysis
Data about conflicts is processed in a two-step process using the video footage. Due to the high level
of required expertise, this data processing is subcontracted to experts in the field of automated video
processing in traffic studies. Some possible candidates are Trafvid (a spin-off company of Lund
University, Sweden), TNO (The Netherlands) or the University of British Columbia (Canada). In a first
step, the video data are scanned for potential conflicts using automated software. In a second step,
the severity of the conflicts is measured. This is done in a semi-automated process using state-ofthe-art software that can measure trajectories, speed profiles and conflict indicators (e.g. Time-toCollision, Time Advantage, Post-encroachment Time…).
The data about normal interactive behaviour is analyzed by applying statistical analysis
techniques such as logistic regression models, ordered logit models, probit models or ANOVA
analysis. This way, it can be evaluated whether statistically significant differences in variable values
are observed between both types of locations (Washington, Karlaftis, & Mannering, 2003).
Data
As explained in the methodology section, two types of data are gathered. For the analysis of
interactive behaviour, on-field observations are executed using standardized forms. Video footage is
gathered to supplement these observations, and to analyze them for traffic conflicts using automated
video processing.
Output
The case studies in this project provide the Flemish government with a quick scientific evaluation
about the effectiveness of some new measures or changes in legislation, or an evaluation of the road
safety impact of measures or infrastructure design details that have been difficult to formally assess
before. Typically, this evaluation can be executed within a year after the implementation. This
feedback is, depending on the study subject, useful to adjust traffic regulation or guidelines presented
in the guideline book of safe roads and intersections (Vademecum Veilige Wegen en Kruispunten
(AWV, 2009)) or other guideline books such as the guideline book of bicycle facilities (Vademecum
Fietsvoorzieningen (AWV, 2008)).
It is aimed to execute 2 case studies within this project. For each case study, the output will consist of
a research report written in Dutch including a management summary Moreover, the results for each
case study will be submitted to a scientic journal for publication. Additionally it will be checked whether
other dissemination activities can be developed such as conference presentations or a popularscientific contribution to the Flemish journal „Verkeersspecialist‟.
64
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Evaluating the effectiveness of
3.2 road safety measures using onsite behavioural observation
1
50%
p.m.
100%
p.m.
Type
PY
Name
Ph. D. student
1,5
N.1
50%
Researcher
p.m.
Project leader
0,5 Tim De Ceunynck1
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
65
Project (3.3): Transition to electric bicycles: what does it imply for traffic safety?
Abstract
This project collects the wealth of existing data and knowledge on functional bicycle use and safety
and bicycle infrastructure in Flanders, and expands it with new data and knowledge on the use, safety
and infrastructural requirements of electric bicycles. Based on that, a refined bicycle model is
developed for use in the Flemish multimodal planning models, enabling quantitative analysis of safety
impacts of changes in functional bicycle use caused by changes in bicycle policy and infrastructure,
and more widespread use of electric bicycles.
Problem statement
The most recent research into commuting characteristics shows that over 81% of the Flemish labour
force works at less than 30 km from their workplace (Cools et al., 2010). The same likely holds for
most other activities, for which the trip distance is usually even shorter than for labour. Still, the
majority of people still prefer to use the car, even for short trips.
On the one hand, Flemish, provincial and municipal authorities encourage the functional use of the
bicycle (i.e. as a means of transport, in addition to recreational use), among others by building
adequate bicycle infrastructure (e.g. “Bovenlokaal functioneel fietsroutenetwerk”). On the other hand,
the electric bicycle makes cycling available to a larger group of potential users, while at the same time
increasing potential reach and travel speed. Finally, recreational cycling is on the rise, herewith also
increasing the interest for functional use of the bicycle. These aspects combined make functional use
of the bike more attractive and increased bicycle use in Flanders can therefore be expected.
However, cyclists are also more vulnerable, certainly if the e-bike renders cycling also interesting for
less skilled persons, e.g. elderly people. It is therefore of paramount importance to gain insight into the
potential safety impact of a modal shift towards more functional use of the (electric) bicycle. Clearly,
the gain in sustainability of such transition should not lead to a higher price in terms of casualties. An
instrument is needed that allows policy makers in Flanders to anticipate the safety impact of increased
functional cycling, and evaluate ex-ante their policy measures aimed at making cycling more attractive
and safe (e.g. locations and types of infrastructure adaptations).
Much research has been done into the preferences for using bicycles, safety and health issues, and
infrastructural characteristics that affect bicyclists‟ safety, both in Belgium and abroad (a.o. the
SHAPES project, fietsGIS).
Yet, little of this knowledge has been made systematically available in the planning models used for
policy support in Flanders („multimodaal model Vlaanderen‟ and the provincial spin-offs thereof). The
planning models do contain a modal choice and route choice component. However, only distance
along the shortest route in a rather rough network (conceived for assignment of motorized traffic) is
taken into account. As a consequence, the model predicts roughly the modal split, but cannot be used
for more detailed analyses of bicycle use in the network, like routes utilized, impact of other attributes
than distance that are relevant for cyclists‟ choice (e.g. presence and type of bicycle path, quality of
intersections,…). Neither can conclusions be drawn about safety, since no sufficiently accurate
estimate of exposure to risk can be made for two reasons: (i) no accurate prediction of routes and
flows is available, hence no quantification of potential conflicts can be made, (ii) many relevant
attributes are missing in the description of bicycle and other infrastructure (e.g. network layer of local
roads and bicycle trails, lay-out of intersections, presence of obstacles,…). Finally, even if the
multimodal planning tools would contain a more accurate layer describing the current practice of
bicycles, updates would be required for anticipating the changes in the system induced by electric
biking.
The objective of this project is therefore to:





make a systematic inventory of existing data and knowledge on functional cycling in Flanders
and abroad
collect data on usage and risks of electric bicycles
combine these into a new, more refined and detailed bicycle layer/module for the Flemish
multimodal planning models
complement the planning modules in these multimodal models with a bicycle safety impact
module
case studies: analyze quantitatively the safety impacts of some current and new policy
measures intended to stimulate (electric) bicycle usage on some pilot regions in Flanders
66
Policy relevance
New and existing knowledge and data will be made available in the multimodal planning models of
Flanders, allowing ex-ante evaluation of safety impacts (among others, note that the model may also
be further developed for mobility analyses) resulting from policy measures, both infrastructural
measures (further expanding functional bicycle routes) and other measures or trends like increased
use of the electric bike.
Methodology
The project consists of several tasks:





Collecting and integrating available data and knowledge on ordinary bicycle use and safety
Data collection on electrical bicycle use and safety
empirical research on electrical bicycle use and safety
Model development
case studies
Task (3.3)a: Collecting and integrating available data and knowledge on ordinary bicycle use and safety
This task consists of a thorough literature survey on bicycle use and bicycle safety with focus on
Flanders. In addition, important data sources and policy initiatives aimed at promoting bicycle use and
increase safety of cycling (e.g. infrastructural measures) are inventoried.
The result of this task should be an integration of the many recent initiatives on ordinary bicycle
research in Flanders (e.g. SHAPES, fietsGIS) with the aim of being input for comparison with newly
collected data on electric bicycles on the one hand, and model development for planning tools on the
other hand.
Task (3.3)b: Data collection on electrical bicycle use and safety
The aim of this task is to collect data on electrical bicycle use in a similar way as has been done in the
SHAPES project for ordinary bicycles. By doing so, comparison can be made between both data sets
and conclusions can be drawn on expected changes in bicycle use and safety, as a result of
introducing electrical bicycles. Combined, these existing and new data sources will feed into the model
development of task (3.3)d.
Fitting e-bikes with tracking devices
In a first stage, we need to find volunteers who are willing to participate in this research by giving us
the permission to track & trace the use of their e-bikes over a certain period (probably a year to be
able to take into account seasonal differences). Therefore, we use tracking devices which will be
attached to a fleet of electric bicycles. The fleet has to be large enough to cover different target groups
relevant to the research (commuters, elderly, other to be decided based on literature review) and
different uses of the e-bikes (commuting, recreative, groceries, and others). The battery-powered
tracking device can easily be mounted and removed from the bicycle frame, so that battery
replacements and data extractions pose no major impediments. In addition, it allows for rotation in the
testing population, using one tracker for more than one test person. As an alternative, we could use
smaller devices with wireless data transfer capability (GPRS). However, the initial installation efforts
are significantly higher for this case. In total we aim at collecting data from about 300 electric bikes
over a one year period.
The information obtained from the tracking devices is complemented by accident information written
up by the volunteers in their cycling diaries. The diary procedures followed in the SHAPES project
(Systematic analysis of Health risks and physical Activity associated with cycling PoliciES) can be of
great help in this respect.
Stated preference survey on mobility and safety attitudes and behaviour amongst test population
GPS-logging constitutes a sound basis for mobility analysis of e-bike use. Still, mobility and safety
have an important behavioural and attitudinal component. In order to produce balanced and useful
recommendations, it is necessary to complement the logging data with data from stated preference
surveys. The questionnaires for these surveys will be developed based on the literature review, and
67
will be adapted during the research to the developing insights from the gps-logging.
Task (3.3)c: Empirical research on electrical bicycle use and safety
In this task, the data sets collected in the previous task are analyzed.
Analyzing data from tracking field test
The goal of this part of the project is twofold: first the data allow evaluating the use of the electric bikes
(mean distance of trips, functional versus recreational, impact of weather conditions, etc.). Secondly,
the data enable to reveal determining factors of traffic safety, related to characteristics of the (urban)
environment. Of course, the focus will be on electric bicycles, but this will always be investigated in
comparison with traditional bikes and in relation to other traffic actors (e.g. motorized vehicles).
We expect for example that there is a link between cycling speed and age, but also between speed
and accidents. On the other hand, younger cyclists tend to have a better overview of traffic situations.
All these factors together make that the relation between age and accident risk needs further
investigation.
The bunch of data obtained from the tracking device will also provide information on the specific
location at each moment (usually at a frequency of 1 Hz) of the route followed. In this case, we hope to
find a link between certain types of traffic situations (e.g. busy intersections, with or without traffic
lights, with or without a clear bicycle path) and the risk of accidents.
Analysis of surveys on mobility and safety attitudes and behaviour amongst test population
GPS-logging constitutes a sound basis for mobility analysis of e-bike use. Still, mobility and safety
have an important behavioural and attitudinal component. In order to produce balanced and useful
recommendations, it is necessary to complement the logging data with data from stated preference
surveys. The questionnaires for these surveys will be developed based on the literature review, and
will be adapted during the research to the developing insights from the gps-logging.
Task (3.3)d: Model development
Based on the existing and newly collected data on ordinary and electric bicycle use and safety, a
model structure is developed that can be integrated in the multimodal planning models of Flanders.
For one, those models currently contain a modal choice model that accounts for bicycle use. This
model will be updated – and if needed refined – based on the collected data. More importantly,
whereas the current multimodal model does not aim at realistic assignment of bicycle trips to the
network, a realistic prediction of paths is of utmost importance for ex-ante safety analyses. For this
purpose, a detailed bicycle layer for the multimodal models is developed. This layer consists of three
components:



detailed bicycle network description: in order to be able to reflect cyclists‟ route choice, which
tends to prefer smaller roads and dedicated links (trails), the level of detail of this network is
much finer than that of the existing provincial and global multimodal models in Flanders.
Moreover, as route choice is driven by different factors than other modes, attributes need to
be added like availability and type of bicycle path, characteristics of the pavement and
intersections etc. Data on loads of vehicular traffic is inherited from the multimodal assignment
model, as it is an important quality aspect of infrastructure for cyclists. Likely, a bicycle model
will require more data than what is currently available for all regions in Flanders. A
compromise will be sought between what is theoretically desirable, and what is feasible. In
order to allow regional differences (data availability is not heterogeneous over regions), it is
investigated whether more than one level of detail for the bicycle network and corresponding
models is a viable option.
route choice model: the path choice by cyclists is determined by characteristics of the
individual, the type of bicycle and trip purpose, and characteristics of the links and
intersections along the route. Adequate choice models will be developed and estimated based
on the data collected in the previous tasks.
post-processing: two types of outputs are generated: (i) bicycle trip impedance matrices and
(ii) safety parameters. The former is needed for feedback into the modal choice model; as
such, the combined models can be used to predict modal shift from and towards cycling as a
function of the attractiveness of the assigned bicycle trips. It becomes possible to simulate the
68
impact of changes in the network on the attractiveness of the bicycle mode and on modal
choice.The safety parameters are derived from the assignment of trips and the resulting
exposure of cyclists to potential conflicts, as can be quantified from the data collected in the
previous tasks. This is another reason why the link attributes of the bicycle network should
contain data on the traffic volumes of motorized traffic.
Task (3.3)e: Case studies
As a last task, a pilot implementation of the bicycle model is made and applied to some pilot regions
(those on which the data collection was focused). In negotiation with the client, some relevant
infrastructural or policy measures will be evaluated in one or more case studies with this model. This
should illustrate the capability of the model, as well as provide insight into the effect on bicycle use and
safety of the policy measures analyzed.
Data
As mentioned under the methodology section, the majority of the data will originate from a bikemounted tracking device. These are complemented with regular online surveys among the test-riders
on safety issues, behavioural change, trip-tagging, and so on. The main parameters collected from
these sources will consist of the following: speed, location (via built-in GPS), accident, trip purpose,
etc.
In addition to these data, survey data will be used, targeting the behavioural and attitudinal compound
of the shift to electric bicycle mobility.
Finally, reference data will be used from the SHAPES project, which contain similar data for ordinary
bikes, allowing for thorough comparison of driving behavior and accident incidence between „normal‟
and e-bikers.
Output
The project will produce the following outputs:



Database on use and safety of electric bicycle
research report describing:
o inventory of available literature and data on bicycle use and safety in Flanders and
abroad (if relevant)
o literature survey on use and safety of electric bicycles
o model description of the new bicycle layer for the Flemish multimodal planning model
o case studies with the pilot implementation of the new bicycle layer for the Flemish
multimodal planning model
pilot implementation of the new bicycle layer for the Flemish multimodal planning model
Moreover, the research will be input for a PhD (additional funding for at least 1 year will need to be
acquired) based on papers resulting from this project. The data collection, as well as the case studies,
provide sufficient input for additional scientific analyses aimed at journal papers and a PhD
dissertation based on these papers. These extra outputs however are considered a product of the
additional funding.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
100%
100%
100%
100% 100%
Transition to electric bicycles:
3.3 what does it imply for traffic
safety?
1
Type
PY
Name
Ph. D. student
2
N.5
Ph. D. student
1
N.4
Project leader
0,5
Yves Deweerdt5
25%
25%
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Co-Project leader
(promotor)
p.m.
Chris Tampère4
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Co-Project leader
(co-promotor)
p.m.
Davy Janssens1
69
70
4.3.4 WORK PACKAGE 4: DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD SAFETY MEASURES
P ROBLEM
STATEMENT
The traffic system as a whole is composed of three interactive parts: vehicles, road users and the road
environment. Any traffic situation can be described as the interaction between these three systems
(Wierwille et al., 2002). Interestingly, a famous study performed by Sabey & Taylor (1980), found that
in no less than 96% of the cases, the so-called human factor (i.e., the road user) could be considered
as a contributing component in the occurrence of accidents. In 65% of the cases, inappropriate road
user behaviour would even be the sole or main causative factor. In addressing the problem of
dangerous road user behaviour, the popular Swiss Cheese Model (Reason, 1997), recommends traffic
safety policy makers to adopt a so-called system approach. In essence, a system approach, implies
that in order to successfully monitor road user behaviour, one should avoid treating individuals in
isolation from the other traffic system components, i.e., the vehicle and the road environment. Support
for a system approach towards understanding and changing human behaviour comes from specialists
within health- and social psychology (Bartholomew et al., 2006).
Various strategic documents indicate that the Flemish Government values such a system approach as
an important policy concern (Departement MOW, 2003; Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement
2009). This reflects in the variety of measures that is being proposed to bring back the number of
accidents, injuries and fatalities. More in detail, Flemish policy with respect to the promotion and
maintenance of traffic safety rests on four basic pillars, i.e., legislation, enforcement, engineering and
education. According to Delhomme et al. (2009), legislation and enforcement mainly serve to deter: by
means of codes, rules, constraints and punitive mechanisms (fines, demerit points, license withdrawal,
etcetera), risky behaviour among road users is discouraged.
Importantly, specialists in behavioural psychology claim that, deterrence by itself will fail to elitic
sustained desired behaviour (Bartholomew et al., 2006). In order for safe behaviour to endure, road
users should be self-determined and intrinsically motivated to do so (Deci & Ryan, 1985). The
importance of measures aimed at creating intrinsically motivated road users is strongly emphasized in
Flemish policy documents (Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2009). Rather than
legislation and enforcement, both engineering and educative strategies are considered to be more
appropriate for inducing voluntary safe behaviour (Delhomme et al., 2009).
This work package therefore concentrates on the engineering- and the education policy pillars (the
enforcement pillar of the road safety system will thus not be covered in this work package, but it will be
treated in project 5.1 in work package 5) . More in particular, three different approaches towards
behavioural influence (i.e., simulator training, in-vehicle technology, road design & infrastructure), will
be investigated. Important from a methodological perspective is that the three projects within this
workpackage will all contain a driving simulator component in their design. Compared to other
methods (field studies, on-road observations, naturalistic driving) simulator research is safer, adaptive,
cost-effective, easy to repeat, and also enables to conduct controlled studies that can be evaluated in
a scientifically sound way (Fisher et al., 2011). Finally, throughout this workpackage, the notion of exante evaluation will be central. As indicated by Delhomme et al. (2009, p. 23) it is important for
governments to know on time whether investments are worthwhile or not, so that the available budgets
can be spend wisely.
A IMS AND
POLICY RELEVANCE
This workpackage contains three projects, investigating the usefulness of education and engineering
strategies that might intrinsically motivate drivers to behave safely. The strategies selected for
study will be subjected to an ex-ante evaluation within a simulator-based design. Across the three
projects, different driver segments will be studied. Project 4.1 is situated within the educational policy
pillar and will propose, implement and evaluate a simulator-based self-commentary training to help
young novice drivers improve their hazard perception skills. Project 4.2 relates to the engineering
pillar, and more specifically to the application of traffic signage and other types of additional traffic
control devices nearby highly demanding traffic situations (such as highway contruction work
zones), aimed at (re-) alerting road users and inducing appropriate driving behaviour. Project 4.3 also
relates to the engineering pillar, only here, the focus is more specifically on road design and
infrastructure.
71
Project 4.1
Project 4.1 is situated within the educational pillar and has its starting point in some of the most recent
developments within the field of driver education. Over the last few years, so-called cognitiveperceptual trainings have flourished enormously under impulse of apparition of the Goals for Driving
Education (GDE) matrix (Hatakka et al., 2002). Cognitive-perceptual programs focus on higher-order
skills, and more in particular on information processing, hazard perception, situational awareness,
attentional control, time sharing and self-calibration (Senserrick, & Haworth, 2005). These programs
are aimed more specifically at young novice drivers, since these have been found to be significantly
poorer in this sort of higher-order cognitive-perceptual skills, compared to more experienced drivers
(Whelan et al., 2002). Most existing training programs have used pictures (Pollatsek et al., 2006b),
video clips (Chapman, Underwood, & Roberts, 2002) and on-road commentaries (Crundall et al.,
2010) as training materials and were found to have positive yet only limited effect on hazard
perception among novice drivers. Interestingly, with a suitable virtual setting, simulator-based training
can overcome limits of the aforementioned training methods (Underwood, Crundall, & Chapman, in
press). For instance, pictures and video clips as training tools are less interactive and in many of the
training studies so far, hazard handling has not been trained at all. Consequently, although trainees
may detect hazards faster, they improve only minimally on how to subsequently respond to them
appropriately.
Following the latest trend of using driving simulators as education tools in the (private) training market
(Fisher et al., 2011; Groot et al., 2001), this project will (1) propose and implement a simulator-based
self-commentary training to help novice drivers to improve their hazard perception skills, and (2) a
follow-up survey on driving history to assess training transfer and retention.
The importance of training cognitive-perceptual skills comes from the finding that crash rates double
th
th
between the 5 and 95 percentile of hazard perception scores (Quimby et al., 1986). In addition to
that, (GDE-based) educational strategies tailored more specifically at young novice drivers, are a
major policy priotity (Departement MOW, 2003; Departement MOW, 2008).
Project 4.2
Project 4.2 relates to the engineering pillar, and more specifically to the application of traffic signage
and other types of additional traffic control devices nearby highly demanding traffic situations (such as
highway contruction work zones), aimed at (re-) alerting road users and inducing appropriate driving
behaviour. Additional traffic control devices can take many forms, going from all sorts of road
pavement markings such as transverse rumble strips, to more traditional traffic signs such as advisory
speed limits, (chevron) alignment signs and delineators, etcetera. More and more popular are the socalled digital information displays. One of the latest trends in the area of operational traffic
management, is the use of so-called variable or dynamic information signs. These can be particularly
useful in situations where a dynamic management of speed limits is warranted, such as for instance, in
case of highway work zones.
The present project proposes an experiment that will take place in the driving simulator. Driving
simulators offer the opportunity to study both drivers‟ mental state and their behaviour and to verify the
effect of supplementary control devices such as markings, signs and displays in a safe and controlled
environment. In narrow conversation with the Roads and Traffic Agency and depending upon the
technical feasibility, the very precise devices or adaptations, as well as the specific traffic situations
and the target population(s) to be tested, will be determined. In terms of traffic situations to be
selected, one potentially interesting candidate to be investigated, could be highway work zones. In
terms of samples to be tested, different motorist profiles can be an option, ranging from younger to
adult or older drivers as well as professional drivers such as truck drivers.
The relevance of this project derives from the fact that Flemish policy addresses the importance of a
“high-quality traffic system” (“hoogwaardig verkeerssysteem”; Department MOW , 2008; Vlaams
Parlement, 2010). The adequate design of infrastructure is one of the main preconditions for the
development of a safer traffic safety system. Infrastructure should inform road users about
(un)expected traffic conditions or conflicts and encourage the desired behaviour, always taking into the
capacities and limitations of human beings. Next to that, the driving simulator offers the opportunity of
ex-ante evaluations, i.e. evaluations of measures that are not yet implemented. Additional traffic
control devices can thus be evaluated first and compared before any definitive choices are made.
72
These evaluations can take place on short terms and can be conducted relatively fast. This will be of
great importance to support future policy intentions in the right direction in a fast and efficient way
(Dutch Department of Finances, 2003).
Project 4.3
Project 4.3 also relates to the engineering pillar, only here, the focus is more specifically on road
design and infrastructure. The Flemish (Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2009 &
2010), Federal (FCVV, 2009 & 2011) and European government (European Commission, 2010)
formulated policy intentions proposing a variety of infrastructural measures to achieve the stated road
safety objectives. Possible measures are the improvement and extension of pedestrian and bicycle
facilities, the implementation of dynamic traffic management, the optimalization of signalization in work
zones and tunnels, the development of self-explaining and forgiving roads in order to categorize the
road network correctly, etcetera.
Together with the Roads and Traffic Agency it will be decided which measures are to be evaluated. In
this project, we propose a double approach for the ex-ante evaluation of a measure: a driving
simulator experiment and a before- and after field study of the test setting.
Ex-ante or proactive evaluation of such measures is internationally recommended (AASHTO, 2010;
ETSC, 1997; SafetyNet, 2009c (p. 24); PIARC, 2003 (p. 128)) because it allows policy makers to (1)
obtain better insight into the effects of policy intentions, performances to deliver and means to use, (2)
give direction to strategic choices at policy preparation, and (3) take and give account of the executed
policy (Dutch Department of Finances, 2003).
73
P ROJECT
DESCRIPTION
Project (4.1): Simulator-based training for young novice drivers to reach higher level “Goals for Driver Education
(GDE)”
Abstract
Compelling scientific evidence suggests that the high crash rate of young novice drivers is at least
partially caused by their lack of higher order safe driving skills especially when confronted with
dangerous situations (e.g. hazard perception failure). However, at this moment driver education
programs hardly provide an adequate training for higher level skills. With new advances in technology,
it has now become possible to use simulators as part of the driver education curriculum. Particularly,
driving simulators offer a unique chance for drivers to experience dangerous situations safely during a
limited learning period. Therefore, we propose a simulator-based training program on hazard
perception with a promising commentary technique to promote young novice driver‟s higher level
driving skills.
Problem statement
Recently, the use of driving simulators as driver education tools in the private training market has
largely increased worldwide (Fisher et al., 2011). For example, in the Netherlands, there are at least
150 simulators in-service at different driving schools (SWOV Fact sheet, 2010). In China, the driving
school association of the city of Hangzhou (8,700,400 inhabitants, 2010) owns 192 simulators (HENG
YING, 2009). According to the Goals for Driver Education (GDE) matrix (Hatakka et al. 2002), a
hierarchy of four levels of skills is required for successful and safe driving. It consists of two lower,
basic levels of „vehicle maneuvering‟ and „mastering traffic situations‟ and two higher levels of
„managing goals and context of driving‟ and „achieving goals for life, and acquiring skills for living‟.
Most private simulator practice however still limits to the basic maneuvering and procedural aspects of
vehicle operation, i.e., the lower levels of the Goals for Driver Education (GDE) matrix. Whereas there
is evidence that simulator training during basic driver education helps to speed up maneuvering skill
acquisition, it not necessarily makes young novice drivers to be safer drivers (Vlakveld, 2006).
Meanwhile, experimental studies demonstrated that novice drivers have more higher order skill
failures such as poor visual search skills (Crundall & Underwood, 1998), hazard anticipation (Pollatsek
et al, 2006a), attention maintenance (Chan et al., 2010) and traffic context comprehension (Borowsky,
Shinar, & Oron-Gilad, 2010) especially when facing dangerous situations. It has been suggested that
young novice drivers are lacking higher order skills rather than basic maneuvering skills (Engström et
al., 2003; McKnight & McKnight, 2003) which can explain their overrepresented crash rates
(OECD/ECMT, 2006; AXA, 2008). Unfortunately, current driver education programs have not provided
sufficient practice to improve novice drivers‟ higher order skills.
Other than the basic maneuvering training application, driving simulators offer the unique chance for
the driver to experience many dangerous situations safely during a limited learning period. In fact,
driver simulator training has also been applied for promoting safe behavior among professional drivers
by presenting complex situations (Dorn & Barker, 2005; Fisher et al., 2011), or for the rehabilitation of
stroke drivers (Akinwuntan et al., 2005; Devos et al., 2011). Given the safety advantage and
applicative experiences, simulator-based training for young novice drivers on higher order skills of the
GDE matrix such as hazard perception, situation awareness, route planning therefore merits further
exploration.
Hazard perception, defined as the driver‟s alertness and reaction to a dangerous configuration of
roadway and other road users (Grayson et al., 2003), is undoubtedly one of the most important safe
driving skills and covers the first three levels of the GDE matrix (Hatakka et al., 2002). Some training
programs have focused on hazard perception by using pictures (Pollatsek et al., 2006b), video clips
(Chapman, Underwood, & Roberts, 2002) and on-road commentaries (Crundall et al., 2010). However,
these have shown a positive yet only limited effect on hazard perception among novice drivers.
Moreover, in these training studies, driving simulators typically were only used as an assessment tool
to evaluate driving performance before and after training. Interestingly, with a suitable virtual setting,
simulator-based training itself can overcome many limits of the aforementioned training methods
(Underwood, Crundall, & Chapman, in press). For instance, pictures and video clips as training tools
are less interactive and in many of the training studies so far hazard handling has not been trained at
all. Therefore, although trainees may detect hazards faster, they improve only minimally on how to
subsequently respond to them appropriately. Compared to on-road commentary training, simulatorbased training is safer, adaptive, cost-effective, easy to repeat, and also enables to conduct controlled
74
studies that can be evaluated in a scientifically sound way. Such compatibility is also valid for low-cost
but high fidelity simulators (Reed & Green, 1999; Ivancic & Hesketh, 2000; Wang, Zhang, & Salvendy,
2010; Underwood et al., in press).
Our laboratory is currently conducting a simulator-based correlation study on hazard perception
among young novice drivers (Phd project Weixin Wang). One of the aims is to find out good indicators
to distinguish better or poor hazard perception skills. With the help of an eye-tracking system, we also
expect to disengage the timing of hazard perception skill failure. Does it happen at a perceptual
detection stage or action implementation (hazard handling) stage. Following the guidance of scientific
literature and our own results, we thereby propose a simulator-based training to help novice drivers
improve their hazard perception skills.
In the present project, we will focus on the promising training technique of commentary based training
in the driving simulator. Commentary training is a technique that is used to train people to improve
their vehicle control skills by verbally commenting potential hazardous situations while driving.
Commentary training has been used in on-road training (Crundall et al., 2010) and video-based
training (McKenna, Horswill, & Alexander, 2006; Isler, Starkey, & Williamson, 2009) studies. There are
two types of commentary training. The participants can either provide a verbal comment themselves
(think aloud or concurrent verbalization) under certain instruction, or they receive verbal comments
from a trained professional. In particular, the idea behind self-commentary emphasizes self-control
processing explicitly guided by one‟s own language. Actually, everybody has used such private
speech strategy to learn motor behavior as a child (Meacham, 1979). It reflects a top-down goaldirected cognitive regulation strategy. This type of training is thought to make novice drivers more
aware of the consequences of their behavior in a hazardous context beyond the scope of simply
improving hazard handling skills. Thus it makes the training reach a higher level of driver education
goals.
Policy relevance
In 2011, The Federal Road Safety Commission produced 20 high priority recommendations for road
safety policy for the coming years (FCVV, 2011). The first recommendation in this series calls for the
implementation of the “goals for driver education” matrix (GDE) into driver education and driver
examination, and the introduction of a graduated driver licensing system in Belgium. More specifically,
the incorporation of so-called higher order skills of the GDE matrix is considered as important to
improve driver training and examination which is currently is largely based on the learning and
examination of operational and tactical skills of driving. Moreover, in the policy orientations for road
safety 2011-2020, the European commission also stresses the importance of integrating higher order
skills into driver education. The European Commission “will consider how to also include broader
driving skills, or even an evaluation of values and behavior related to road safety (awareness of the
risks) and defensive, energy-efficient driving (reinforcement of the key elements of eco-driving within
the curricula of the theoretical and practical tests).” (European Commission, 2010, pg. 5).
Furthermore, the use of driving simulators as an instrument to train young novice drivers on these
higher order skills of the GDE matrix has recently received increased attention. In 2009, a public
consultation was carried out by the European Commission on driver training and traffic safety
education (European Commission, 2009) stating that driving simulators might play a useful role as part
of a driver education program.
Methodology
Objective
The objectives of this simulator-based self-commentary training on hazard perception study are 1)
using the simulator to train in-loop situational behaviors, i.e. hazard detection and hazard handling; 2)
combining the training with a self-reflective strategy to make the motor learning transfer to an even
higher level of the GDE matrix, i.e., understanding the goal and context of driving.
Target group
Age range: 17-25 years old
Driving experience requirement: learner drivers those having minimum maneuvering skills to develop
higher driving skills (10 hours practice experience) and post-licence novice drivers with less than 1
year driving experience.
75
Group size: 25 participants for training group, and 25 for control group
Study design
Double-blinded controlled pre-post test design. Participants are randomly assigned to the training
group and control group. During the pre and post training assessments, the examiner will have no clue
about who is coming from which group. Participants from both groups will drive through all the
simulated hazards, however, only the training group will receive self-commentary instruction and will
conduct their self-commentaries aloud during the training.
Training tool
The advanced STISIM 400 driving simulator at IMOB, along with a 180-degrees horizontal view curved
screen that ensures a highly-realistic visual context.
Training technique
Self-commentary training under instruction. The instruction for the training group will help them to
develop suitable self-commentaries during and after simulated driving through each hazard. The
instruction will focus on 1) visual search of hazards, 2) hazard prediction, 3) intended action of hazard
handling, 4) consequences of those handling.
Training evaluation
The lower and intermediate level skills will be tested by pre-post training driving and eye behavior
tests. The higher level skills and driver attitudes will be tested by means of questionnaires.
Pre-post driving tests: simulator-based driving assessment using the performance matrix from the
current study running in our laboratory.
Pre-post eye behavior tests: eye-tracking matrix from the running study.
Pre-post driver behavior and attitude questionnaires: Driver behavior questionnaire (Lajunen, Parker,
& Summala, 2004); Attitude questionnaires coming from the literature.
Data
Data collection & analysis
Behavioral data (driving performance and eye-movement) will be collected by STISIM 400 driving
simulator software and Facelab 5.0 software. Those data will be analysed in Matlab software. Other
data will be analysed by means of the statistical software package SPSS 17.0.
The analysis steps will include: (1) data reduction and screening, (2) descriptive statistics (means,
standard deviations, etc.), (3) inferential statistics (ANOVA, MANOVA, etc) (4) correlation and
regression analysis.
Output
A Dutch research report and an English journal article to appear in an international peer reviewed
traffic safety journal.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Simulator-based training for
young novice drivers to reach
4.1
higher level “Goals for Driver
Education (GDE)"
1
100%
100%
p.m.
p.m.
75%
p.m.
Type
PY
Name
Ph. D. student
2
N.1
Project leader
p.m.
Ellen Jongen1
76
Project (4.2): Assessing effects of signage at road construction work zones on road user mental state and
behaviour
Abstract
Some traffic situations (i.e., demanding situations) require drivers to pay extra attention. Traffic
situations can be qualified as demanding in function of what the complexity or difficulty imposed upon
the driver is like. The complexity or difficulty of a situation experienced by the driver in turn is
dependent upon various possible factors. On the one hand, these can be related to the traffic situation
itself. On the other hand, the complexity of a traffic situation can be a function of how attentive the
driver is. For instance, under conditions of distraction (e.g., when using a phone or a gps), reduced
alertness (e.g., when having been driving in a monotonous environment for quite some time),
tiredness (e.g., after a long day of work), sleepiness (e.g., when lacking sufficient rest), or drowsiness
(e.g., in case of cortical de-arousal), drivers might react less than optimal to a specific situation or
event. Alerting and preparing drivers to undertake the appropriate actions on time might then
substantially improve traffic safety. Adjustments of the road environment by means of additional traffic
control devices nearby demanding or high risk situations in order to (re-) alert and prepare drivers to
undertake the appropriate actions, are a well-described phenomenon in the literature.
The aim of the present project is to explore and compare different sorts of road environment
adjustments in specific demanding driving situations (for instance highway work zones) to
establish the most effective way of enhancing attention and inducing the behaviour that is
expected from road users.
The present project will take place in the driving simulator. Driving simulators offer the opportunity to
study both drivers‟ mental state and their behaviour and to verify the effect of supplementary
measures such as markings, signs and displays in a safe and controlled environment.
Problem statement
The traffic system as a whole is composed of three interactive parts: vehicles, road users and the road
environment. Any traffic situation can be described as the interaction between these three systems.
On the side of the road user, safe driving requires the integration of visual, motoric, and cognitive
functioning. According to Fuller‟s task-capability interface model (Fuller, 2005), which is a general
theory of driver behaviour, the (visual, motoric and cognitive) capabilities of the road user and task
demands (i.e., task difficulty) are to be compared if one wishes to evaluate the level of risk in a certain
traffic situation. When capability is too low in relation to imposed task demands, dangerous traffic
situations may occur.
As already indicated previously, a person‟s capability to address a specific traffic situation is
dependent upon the complexity of the situation itself as well as upon the driver‟s mental state at the
moment he is confronted with a certain situation. As for cognition, attention is an important function for
driving. Deficits in attention have been frequently related to crash involvement (Daigneault et al., 2002;
Lundberg et al., 1998; Sims et al., 2000; Stutts et al., 1998) and diminished driving performance
(Baldock et al., 2007; De Raedt and Ponjaert-Kristoffersen, 2000; Janke, 2001; Jongen et al., in press)
and thus pose a threat to traffic safety. The complexity or difficulty of a situation experienced by the
driver in turn is dependent upon various possible factors such as for instance, a sharp curve following
a long tangent, dense traffic, unsteady flow, bad wheather, an unexpected event, a temporary change
of the road‟ s normal geometrical alignment such as in case of work zones where lanes can be closed
or realigned, etcetera).
Adjustments of the road environment by means of additional traffic control devices nearby demanding
or high risk situations in order to (re-) alert and prepare drivers to undertake the appropriate actions,
are a well-described phenomenon in the literature.These additional traffic control devices can take
many forms, going from all sorts of road pavement markings such as transverse rumble strips, to more
traditional traffic signs such as advisory speed limits, (chevron) alignment signs and delineators,
etcetera. More and more popular are the so-called digital information displays. One of the latest trends
in the area of operational traffic management, is the use of so-called variable or dynamic information
signs. These can be particularly useful in situations where a dynamic management of speed limits is
warranted, such as for instance, in case of highway work zones. Variable digital panels can be of
various kinds. A Speed Indicator Device (SID) is a radar activated sign that dynamically depicts
oncoming vehicle speeds on a large digital display. Studies concluded that these devices have a
77
positive effect in reducing traffic speed and that they are especially effective on speeding drivers. SIDs
are most often used at problematic locations such as school zones, dangerous intersections or
hazardous curves. A so-called Variable Speed Limit (VSL) or a Dynamic Speed Display Sign (DSDS)
is a system that provides real-time information on appropriate speeds for current driving and road
conditions. Credible speed limits are essential to obtain that the driver will trust and obey the variable
speed limit. VSLs are being used mainly in working zones, school zones, and under bad weather
conditions. Prior research indicates that dynamic speed limits lead to an increase in homogeneity of
the driving speeds and that road users are positive in terms of acceptance of this type of dynamic
speed limit system. Finally, Variable Message Signs (VMS) digitally display any kind of (textual or
symbolic) message that might concern the safety of its readers. To illustrate the latter, think of smogwarnings where besides a pictogram of a warning sign, the reason (i.e., SMOG) and the reduced
speed limit (MAXIMUM 90 km/h) is shown.
The aim of the present project is to explore and compare different sorts of road environment
adjustments in specific demanding driving situations (for instance highway work zones or
traffic congestion) to establish the most effective way of enhancing attention and inducing the
behaviour that is expected from road users. The present project will take place in the driving
simulator. Driving simulators offer the opportunity to study both drivers‟ mental state and their
behaviour and to verify the effect of supplementary infrastructural measures such as markings, signs
and displays in a safe and controlled environment.
Policy relevance
The investigation and comparison of road environment adjustments in specific demanding driving
situations to establish the most effective way of enhancing attention, and inducing appropriate
behaviour will be of great relevance for traffic safety and will have policy relevance for a number of
reasons.The Flemish policy addresses the importance of a “high-quality traffic system” (“hoogwaardig
verkeerssysteem”; Department MOW , 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2010). The adequate design of
infrastructure is one of the main preconditions for the development of a safer traffic safety system.
Infrastructure should inform road users about (un)expected traffic conditions or conflicts and
encourage the desired behaviour, always taking into account the capacities and limitations of human
beings.
Importantly, the driving simulator offers the opportunity of ex-ante evaluations, i.e. evaluations of
measures that are not yet implemented (Van Malderen & Macharis, 2009). Traffic control devices and
environment adjustments can thus be evaluated first and compared before any definitive choices are
made. These evaluations can take place on short terms and can be conducted relatively fast. This will
be of great importance to support future policy intentions in the right direction in a fast and efficient
way .
In narrow conversation with the Roads and Traffic Agency and depending upon the technical
feasibility, the very precise devices or adaptations, as well as the specific traffic situations and the
target population(s) to be tested, will be determined. In terms of traffic situations to be selected, one
potentially interesting candidate to be investigated, could be highway work zones. A rough estimation
shows that on a yearly basis, about 800 accidents would happen at work zones on highways and that
17 road workers would decease, mostly due to inappropriate speed, or to the fact that motorists react
too late. In terms of samples to be tested, different motorist profiles can be an option, ranging from
younger to adult or older drivers as well as professional drivers such as truck drivers. As for the latter,
it appears that demanding situations specifically problematic for this group are traffic congestion and
road works.
Methodology
Research for this project will be conducted in the advanced state-of-the-art STISIM 400 driving
simulator at IMOB, with a 180-degrees horizontal view curved screen that ensures a highly-realistic
context. Depending upon the precise research questions and issues to be investigated, the driving
simulator could be equipped with an eye- and head tracking device and devices to measure
(psycho)physiological responses, such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrodermal activity, and
heart rate activity. In a driving simulator experiment the effect on driver behaviour of a number of traffic
control devices still to be determined will be examined in a (number of) driver sample(s) still to be
agreed upon. If it would be of interest, study participants‟ mental state or head- and eye movements
could be monitored as well and there are options to induce distraction while driving. The type of design
78
(i.e., within- between-subjects or mixed design) will also depend upon what the precise research
questions will be formulated like. As already stated, examples of demanding driving situations that can
be evaluated are: work zones at highways, dangerous curves, sudden traffic jam, etc. Options are
infinite and together with the Roads and Traffic Agency it can be decided which specific situations will
be of interest for evaluation.
Data
The driving simulator records a number of driving parameters (e.g., speed, acceleration, lane position,
steering wheel counts). Traffic safety will be represented by the effect on different driving parameters.
Relevant driving parameters for analyses will be determined based on the driving literature and will
also depend on the specific demanding traffic situation of interest. For example for dangerous curves,
speed at the road segments before and in the curve will be the main interest as well as the way drivers
reduce their speed while approaching the curve (i.e., (standard deviation of) deceleration) (Ariën et al.,
2011a). Data will be analyzed using repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA)
and subsequent univariate ANOVA analyses. A MANOVA will be used to provide an overall measure
of driver performance across all included parameters as a function of experimental conditions.
MANOVA provides an assessment of the unique variance and the overall effect size associated with
the experimentally manipulated variables.
Output
The results of these experiments will be published under the form of a Dutch research report, and an
English journal article in the international traffic safety literature (e.g., Accident Analysis and
Prevention, Journal of Safety Research, Transportation Research Part F, Safety Science) and, on
demand, can be presented in Dutch and/or English.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Assessing effects of signage at
4.2 road construction works on
distraction/road user behaviour
1
Type
PY
Name
100%
Ph. D. student
1
N.1
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
79
Project (4.3): Ex-ante evaluation of the impact of road infrastructure on traffic safety
Abstract
Within Flanders‟ evidence-based policy culture it is important to evaluate and monitor infrastructural
measures to ensure that the implemented measure effectively and efficiently tackle road safety. An exante evaluation of road infrastructure on traffic safety is the process of estimating the impact of
infrastructural measures which are not implemented yet. Shortly three main purposes can be stated for
ex-ante evaluation. That is first getting sight on the effects of policy intentions, performances to deliver
and means to use, secondly giving direction to strategic choices at policy preparation and thirdly giving
account about the executed policy. Driving simulator research and field experiments are described in
this project as possible approaches to ex-ante evaluate the effectiveness of new road infrastructure on
driving behavior.
Problem statement
The Flemish (Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2009 & 2010), Federal (FCVV, 2009 &
2011) and European government (European Commission, 2010) formulated policy intentions
proposing a variety of infrastructural measures to achieve the stated road safety objectives. Possible
measures are the improvement and extension of pedestrian and bicycle facilities, the implementation
of dynamic traffic management, the improvement of signalization in work zones and tunnels, the
development of self-explaining and forgiving roads in order to categorize the road network correctly,
etc.
Whereas the previous Traffic Safety Policy Research Centre focused on a variety of studies on expost evaluation of infrastructural measures (Van Malderen & Macharis, 2009; De Pauw, work in
progress), is this project specifically concentrating on the ex-ante evaluation of infrastructural
measures on road safety. Ex-ante evaluation is defined as the process of estimating the impact of
infrastructural measures which are not implemented yet. An important reason for evaluation is to learn
from for future, which can help to see what is effective and how future initiatives can be made more
effective (Tones en Green, 2004). It can also help to learn from for similar or related measures to
make them as effective as possible or to learn not to make the same mistakes again in future
measures (DVS, SWOV & KiM, 2011). Next to this, evaluation is important to give account and explain
why certain means are used for a specific purpose (Brug, Assema & Lechner, 2008). A good
evaluation is important to determine which interventions are worth to be performed and to decide if
means are invested well.
Ex-ante or proactive evaluation is internationally recommended (AASHTO, 2010; ETSC, 1997;
SafetyNet, 2009c (p. 24); PIARC, 2003 (p. 128)), both by means of driving simulator research (FHWA,
2007; for an overview see Fisher, Rizzo, Caird and Lee, 2011) as before- and after studies for test
settings (Elvik, Hoye, Vaa and Sorensen, 2009). However, Flanders‟ contribution to this research field
is relatively limited. The Traffic Safety Policy Research Centre did an ex-ante evaluation of additional
road markings as an indication of speed limits, both by means of a field experiment (Dreesen and
Daniels, 2007) and a driving simulator study (Vanrie, 2008) (Daniels et al., 2010a). In addition, IMOB
carried out a field experiment on the effect of speed enforcement by means of manned speed control
or digital panels (Wilmots et al., 2011b) and some driving simulator studies to investigate the effect of
a 70kph speed limit on a former 90kph regional road (Jongen, Brijs, Mollu, Brijs & Wets, 2011), traffic
calming measures in throughways (Ariën, Jongen, Brijs, Brijs & Wets, 2011) and additional pavement
marking in dangerous curves (Ariën, Brijs, K. Ceulemans et al., 2011). Currently, IMOB has also
evaluated the signalization from the roadwork on the viaduct in Vilvoorde (Brijs et al., 2011a) and the
industrial site in Genk (Brijs et al., 2011b) by means of the signalization simulator. However the
number of ex-ante effectiveness measurements of adaptations of road infrastructure in Flanders is still
limited and future research is needed.
Policy relevance
Within Flanders‟ evidence-based policy culture it is important to evaluate and monitor infrastructural
measures to ensure that the implemented measure effectively and efficiently tackle road safety. This
evaluation should be implemented during the different policy processes. Ex-ante evaluations are
executed for measures that are not implemented yet, whereas ex-post evaluations are done after a
measure, project or activity is completely executed. Shortly three main purposes can be stated for exante evaluation (Dutch Department of Finances, 2003). That is first getting sight on the effects of
policy intentions, performances to deliver and means to use, secondly giving direction to strategic
80
choices at policy preparation and thirdly giving account about the executed policy. More information
about ex-post evaluation can be found in project 5.3.
Examples of measures that can be evaluated are: (messages on) digital panels as a speed
management tool in highway work zones, tunnels or at secondary roads, transversal rumble strips and
digital panels to warn drivers for work zones at highways, 50kph speed limit on former 70kph roads,
non compulsory cycle lanes, speed adaptation measures for self-explaining roads, new traffic
regulations, design of highway exits, etc. This list is not limitative and can be changed or expanded in
consultation with parties, such as the Roads and Traffic Agency.
The evaluation of infrastructural measures can be a major contribution for the formulation or update of
reference works, such as road design manuals (Flemish vademeca). These reference works are
essential in the resource allocation and they make it possible to circulate the gathered knowledge in
Flanders. In addition, these impact evaluations can contribute to road safety audits (SafetyNet, 2009c;
ETSC, 1997). Ex-ante evaluation by means of driving simulator research and field experiments
provides also the opportunity to receive study results in the short term.
Methodology
Together with the Roads and Traffic Agency it can be decided which measures are evaluated. We
propose a double approach for the ex-ante evaluation of a measure: driving simulator research and
before- and after studies of test settings.
Driving simulator studies offer a lot of research possibilities because the researcher has total control
over the independent variables (i.e., different infrastructural measures) and environmental conditions
(such as weather conditions, behavior of other road users, etc.). In addition, a driving simulator study
is safe and cost efficient because high implementation costs of possible inefficient measures are
avoided and results are available in the short term. Limitations associated with driving simulator
studies are the possibility of simulator sickness, the physical limitations and the validity of the driving
simulator (Godley, 1999).
IMOB disposes of two type of driving simulators (i.e., STISIM driving simulator and signalization
simulator). During a STISIM driving simulator experiment, a test sample is exposed to several
infrastructural measures which are developed in the virtual simulator scenario. Based on blueprints
and detailed field measurements real-world driving environments are replicated and new infrastructural
measures are designed in these scenarios. During the experimental trip the simulator logs data about
the driving behavior such as speed, acceleration and deceleration, lateral lane position, braking force,
lateral velocity, steering behavior etc. Repeated-measure MANOVA and ANOVA analysis are used to
compare the driving behavior data in the different conditions (i.e., control condition without
infrastructural measures versus different test conditions with a variety of measures). Based on these
results, the effects on traffic safety will be assessed. Besides the STISIM driving simulator which is
based on virtual programmed driving scenarios, a signalization simulator can be used to specifically
evaluate the effect of signalization in both a quantitative and qualitative way (Brijs, et al., 2010b). For
this research, films of the Flemish road network are used as driving scenarios and the signalization
under investigation is added in the scenario by means of 3D modeling. Based on the participants‟
driving behavior (i.e., speed, route choice, etc.) and surveys an evaluation of the signalization is made.
Both simulators can be used for ex-ante evaluation in a cross-sectional or longitudinal design. The
former refers to studies in which driving behavior data is collected at a particular time moment for a
particular subject. Whereas in a longitudinal study subjects are measures repeatedly through time and
examines thus the durability of the effectiveness of the selected infrastructural measure (Everitt and
Skrondal, 2010).
The driving simulator tests can be supplemented with field experiments in which a test setting of an
infrastructural measure is applied on one or more pilot roads and evaluated by means of a before- and
after study. In contrary with the standard ex-post before- and after studies on accident data (Elvik,
2002; Shinar, 2007) is this study based on driving behavior. Driving behavior (such as speed, lane
choice or deceleration and acceleration) before the implementation of the infrastructural measure is
compared with the driving behavior after the intervention. The research has a quasi-experimental
design with a comparison group (Shadish, Cook and Campbell, 2002; Nuyts, 2006; Wilmots et al.,
2011b). The comparison group consists of actual roads or locations which are comparable with the
study location, but where the measure under investigation has not been applied. The time period of
the measurement (i.e., before intervention, 1, 2, 3 … week(s) after intervention, day or night ect.) and
the traffic flow can for instance be used as independent variables, whereas the driving behavior
parameter (such as speed, lane choice or deceleration and acceleration) is used as dependent
81
variable.
Data
The data for driving simulator research is primarily provided by the driving simulator itself because it
logs driving behavior data (i.e., speed, acceleration and deceleration, lateral lane position, braking
force, lateral velocity, steering behavior etc.) during the simulator trips. However, the definition of a
virtual STISIM scenario, which corresponds highly to reality, requires data about road characteristics
concerning the cross section and longitudinal design, such as speed limits, number and width of lanes,
infrastructure of intersections and work zones, curve radii and super elevation, etc. Plans and
blueprints of the concerning locations will be obtained from the Roads and Traffic Agency. In case of
the use of the signalization simulator, videos should be collected and processed with 3D modeling,
which is not yet budgeted in the current proposal and will be outsourced.
The field experiments require driving behavior data (such as mean speed, V50, V85, lane choice or
acceleration and deceleration datat) and traffic flow rates from the test location and the control group,
both before and after the implementation of the infrastructural measure. It is assumed that these data
will be provided by the Flemish Traffic Centre (Vlaams Verkeerscentrum) or the Roads and Traffic
Agency.
The selection of the location which are virtually simulated or examined in a field experiment will be
based on consultation with parties (such as the Roads and Traffic Agency), on geo-coded accident
data or on speed and flow rates of potential locations.
Output
The results of this project will be disseminated in one Dutch research report and an English journal
article to be published in an international peer-reviewed journal within the field of traffic safety. On
demand, results, can be presented in Dutch and/or English.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Ex-ante evaluation of the impact
4.3 of road infrastructure on traffic
safety
1
Type
PY
Name
100%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
N.1
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
82
4.3.5 WORK PACKAGE 5: RANKING AND EVALUATION OF MEASURES
PROBLEM STATEMENT
Within ViA the Flemish government has put forward ambitious objectives for improving traffic safety. In
the public debate and scientific literature many measures are put forward. Consequently, policy
makers are faced with the difficult problem of assessing the relative merits of the various measures
and of choosing among them in order to reach the objectives in the least costly way and in a way that
is accepted by the public.
In the call document for the new Policy Research Center, Government has therefore explicitly stated
the need for evaluating traffic safety measures. According to the call document, also new financing
mechanisms should be explored, other than just public financing. Both aspects will be treated in this
work package.
A IMS AND
POLICY RELEVANCE
The aim of this work package is to evaluate various traffic safety policies and to provide a ranking of
publicly acceptable measures in order to meet the traffic safety targets of the Flemish government,
while ensuring that the available resources are used in the best possible way. By making a thorough
evaluation, we will provide a sound underpinning of the Flemish policy in these domains.
We consider three broad categories of safety measures: enforcement (public and private),
infrastructural measures and educative insight programs. In addition, it introduces the concept of
amenability to treatment in order to help policy-makers in the decision process. The guiding principle
throughout the work package is the efficiency and effectiveness of the traffic measures.
As is motivated in more detailed way in the project descriptions below, the three categories
correspond with important approaches put forward by the Flemish government to improve traffic safety
(Vlaams Parlement, 2009; Departement MOW, 2008). The research furthermore covers the financing
of the measures (through the traffic safety fund).
More specifically, the following projects are defined:
In project 5.1 the focus is on enforcement. In Belgium, the traffic fine revenues are allocated to the
police zones according to a given scheme. Each of the police zones can use the fine revenue for welldefined tasks. For some priority actions extra funds are available. This project aims to answer the
following questions related to the efficient use of these funds:
a) what is the most efficient allocation of the fine revenues over different zones and tasks?
b) is there any role for adding private enforcement in an efficient traffic safety policy?
In addition, a literature survey will be conducted about the effectiveness of enforcement measures.
In Project 5.2, the focus is on the concept of „amenability to treatment‟ (Elvik, 2008c), i.e., the
prospect of implementing measures that will reduce a road safety problem . We propose a general
framework for the choice among policy measures. First of all, by measuring the size of the problem
and the public support to do something about it, the concept can be used to decide whether to tackle a
certain traffic safety problem or not. Secondly, when the answer is positive, amenability to treatment
can help to decide which measures are the most appropriate, considering three important elements:



Effectiveness: to what extent does a measure lead to the predefined goals?
Public support: do people support this measure and are they willing to accept it?
Costs: how much does the measure cost?
We will integrate the available expertise about these three elements and create an accessible
evaluation framework that allows assessing easily the strengths and weaknesses of particular
measures.
83
In project 5.3, the focus is on the evaluation of infrastructural road safety measures. A lot is being
done to improve the Flemish road infrastructure and consequently to improve traffic safety. However,
the impacts on safety of these investments often are not known very well. Ex-post evaluation of the
infrastructural interventions is important so that one can adapt the measures where necessary and
one can learn from it for the future. In addition, ex-ante and ex-post evaluation help to ensure that the
available resources are used well given the policy targets that are put forward. In this project we
therefore evaluate changes in the road infrastructure and its management in terms of their
effectiveness and the costs and benefits for the Flemish society. Where relevant, we pay attention to
network effects of local measures, which may arise when such measures cause traffic to reroute.
Finally, the focus in project 5.4 is on the evaluation of the effectiveness of educative insight
programs. Educative insight programs have flourished recently under impulse of the apparition of the
Goals for Driving Education (GDE) matrix (Hatakka et al., 2002) . The programs focus on higher-order
skills and address the motivational orientations behind driving. Despite their rising popularity, also in
Flanders, there is no clear view on their effectiveness. It is therefore recommended to carry out an
evaluation of these programs (see also pg. 23 of Vlaams Parlement, 2009). We propose to subject the
Flemish educational insight program Verkeersgetuigen (an educational program in which traffic victims
are involved in traffic safety education) to an outcome effect evaluation on the basis of which policy
recommendations can be proposed as to how the program studied could be (further) improved.
A NNUAL
PROGRAMME
2012
In 2012, the following research activities are programmed:
For project 5.1: this project on the effectiveness and efficiency of road safety enforcement will be
carried out entirely in 2012. All research activities planned for this project are therefore situated in the
year 2012.
For project 5.2 on amenability to treatment no research activities are planned in 2012. This project will
start in the second half of 2014.
For project 5.3 on the evaluation of infrastructural road safety measures, a topic for a first case will be
selected in negotiation with the Flemish Government in 2012. Furthermore, in 2012 the data collection
for the selected case will be started as well as some preliminary data analysis.
Finally, for project 5.4 on the evaluation of an educative insight campaign research activities will be
started up in 2012 and will continue in 2013. It is the aim to evaluate the effectiveness of the „Traffic
Informers‟ (verkeersgetuigen) educative insight campaign. More specifically in 2012 the research
design for the evaluation of the campaign will be prepared. Depending on the timing of the actual
campaign as carried out by the Government, research activities will be synchronized as much as
possible with the timing of the campaign.
84
P ROJECT
DESCRIPTION
Project (5.1): Efficiency of road safety enforcement
Abstract
The aim of road safety enforcement is to reduce the number of road traffic offences and finally to
reduce the number of accidents and crash victims. In order to maximize the results an efficient
deployment of effective measures is necessary. Both efficiency and effectiveness of enforcement
activities will be handled in this project.
In Belgium, the revenue of traffic fines is returned to the police zones according to a given allocation
scheme. Each of the police zones can use the fine revenue for well defined tasks. For some priority
actions extra funds are foreseen.
The two research questions on the efficiency part are:
a) what is the most efficient allocation of the fine revenue over different zones and tasks?
b) is there any role for adding private enforcement in an efficient traffic safety policy?
Problem statement
In the meetings of the Federal Committee on Road Safety priorities of actions are listed to improve
road safety in Belgium. An increase of controls on speeding, seat belt use and drink driving is included
in the Federal and Flemish road safety plans. Since enforcement resources are limited, an efficient
and effective use of these means is requested.
Since Becker (1968), Polinsky & Shavell (2000) and Shavell (2004) etc. we know that individuals react
to the expected fine PF, which is the product of the enforcement probability (P) and the fine (F). The
most efficient policy is in general a policy that for a given deterrence (PF) minimizes the costs of
achieving this level. This means using a high fine so that the costly enforcement efforts are minimized.
Operationalising this principle is made difficult by several factors. A first element is that the agencies
(police) responsible for the enforcement actions have their own objectives and need to be monitored
and incentivized. A second element is the large diversity of traffic risks. Traffic accident risks are a
function of different factors (alcohol, speeding, lack of attention and experience, weather conditions).
The different influencing factors can be additive but also multiplicative. In addition besides
enforcement by the police also other factors (insurance contracts, education, ..) affect the accident
risks.
For some countries (Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, ...) there is a good knowledge on the overall
model driving the accident rates and the cost benefit ratios of certain enforcement actions (Elvik &
Amundsen, 2000; European Commission, 2004; van den Hauten & Rademaker, 2005). The specific
role of police enforcement has also been studied in several countries, mainly for the US but also for
Belgium (Eeckhout et al (2010)).
There is a well developed agency theory in economics that tells us how to incentivize workers and
managers in a firm such that they maximize the corporate goal. The straightforward application of this
theory to a public agency is not appropriate because these agencies have a multi-tasking problem and
there is an asymmetry in the enforcement errors: convicting someone who is innocent is far more
damaging for the reputation of the police officer than releasing a criminal (Prendergast, 2001). How to
manage optimally a public agency remains therefore a difficult problem.
Privatizing enforcement is already a widespread practice for parking and for many other fields (private
enforcement of business contracts, employment contracts etc.). What matters is to get the incentives
right and this is easy when the task is unidimensional (Landes & Posner, 1974).
In the past several studies were conducted on the effectiveness of certain enforcement measures (de
Waard & Rooijers (1994); Vaa, T. (1997); Tay (2005)). In these studies the effect of enforcement
actions on driving behavior and number of accidents is evaluated. The results should still be
assembled and made available to law enforcement people who are responsible for the planning of
enforcement activities.
Policy relevance
In the Flemish road safety policy (Department MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement, 2010) an effective and
efficient legal and organizational framework is among the measures to improve road safety. This study
will deliver policy recommendations on possibilities of improving enforcement strategies. Furthermore
85
it will provide law enforcement officers an overview of effective measures to reduce the number of
accidents/victims.
Methodology
Task (5.1)a: Efficiency of the enforcement system
Survey of the literature on police enforcement
In this short survey, we pay particular attention to the agency issues when police zones are
incentivized by returning part of the revenues. What is the objective function driving a police zone and
what to expect from current incentive mechanisms
Optimization of enforcement efforts
We propose a methodology to optimize enforcement efforts. Using the relationship between
enforcement efforts and accident rates, adding cost functions for enforcement as well as benefits of
reduced accident rates and the opportunity cost of public funds, one can formulate a straightforward
optimization problem.
Privatization of enforcement
On the basis of a survey of the literature we suggest possible options for privatizing certain tasks and
the potential efficiency gains that may be associated to this.
International comparison of traffic law enforcement – what explains the differences?
We use a political economy model to explain the wide differences in traffic law enforcement. This in
line with the work of Ovaere et al. (2011) for environmental law enforcement (Rousseau & Proost,
2009).
Task (5.1)b: Effectiveness of enforcement measures
A review of the international literature on the effectiveness of enforcement measures will be
conducted.
Data
3 sources of data will be used:



the international literature will be reviewed
accident data will be obtained from the national crash statistics of the Federal government
data of enforcement activities will be obtained from federal Public Service of Justice or from
local police zones
Output
One report for each of the tasks will be delivered. Both will contain the study results and the policy
recommendations that can be drawn from them.
Publication as discussion paper and later in international journal – language will be English
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Type
PY
Name
100%
Ph. D. student
1
N.3
p.m.
Researcher
p.m.
Project leader
Efficiency of road safety
5.1
enforcement
1
p.m. Sandra Rousseau3
p.m.
Stef Proost3
86
Project (5.2): Amenability to treatment
Abstract
To increase traffic safety as much as possible with the available means, it is important to tackle traffic
safety problems that have a high impact, and to choose measures that reach the highest possible
effects, with as less means as possible. This is often a difficult task, as different elements have to be
taken into account. Some measures might have an high effectiveness, but gain no public support or
vice versa. This is a typical problem in road safety policy making. Measuring the amenability to
treatment can help to give a sight on these elements and can help to make adequate choices.
When a certain traffic safety problem is planned to be tackled, the “amenability to treatment” can be
assessed. This can support policy makers to decide which measure is the most appropriate in a
certain situation. Therefore, amenability to treatment handles three important elements, that is:



Effectiveness of the measure: to what extent does the measure leads to the predefined
goals?
Public support for the measure: does people support this measure and are they willing to
accept it?
Cost of the measure: how much does the measure cost?
Problem statement
Road safety problems are multidimensional and may be viewed from different perspectives.
Dependent on the focused dimension, different measures may be seen as important for solving a
certain problem. One of these dimensions is magnitude, which is the size of the contribution it makes
to crashes, another dimension is severity, that calculates the contribution it has to fatalities and serious
injuries. However even if a problem has a high contribution to crashes or injuries this does not mean
that it is easy to solve or reduce. This can be expressed by the amenability to treatment, which is
defined as the prospect of implementing measures that will reduce a road safety problem, or, at best,
eliminate the problem (Elvik, 2008c).
The amenability to treatment of various problems can be assessed by combining the information on
the size of these problems with information on the level of support for stronger policy interventions.
This relation between size of the problem and public support is not always proportional. For example,
Elvik (2008c) showed that speeding is an important attributable risk for fatalities, but has a low support
for stronger policy interventions. Cyclists accidents is something of which the risk is lower, however,
the support for implementation of measures to tackle this problem is much higher than for speeding
(Elvik, 2008c). A high attributable risk for fatalities does not necessarily means that measures to
tackle this problem are strongly supported by the public.
Next to the general evaluation of a traffic safety problem, amenability to treatment is especially
important to examine specific measures. Therefore two main factors can be distinguished (Elvik,
2008c), that is 1) effectiveness of the measure to reduce road casualties and 2) the public support
for a specific measure.
However, given the fact that also the costs are of major importance to take policy decisions a third
dimension, i.e. the costs of the measures will be added to the framework that was proposed by Elvik.
Subsequently, based on these three dimensions, the best measure to tackle a certain problem can be
determined. For example Intelligent Speed Adaptation systems may be expected to be both effective
and advisable in terms of cost, but lack public support (Elvik, 2008c). Imprisonment for drunk-driving is
widely supported, but not (cost)effective (Ross & Klette, 1995). Even if a measure seems promising in
terms of effectiveness, also a certain minimum of public acceptance is necessary to introduce a traffic
safety measure.
Policy relevance
In the decision to implement a certain measure, usually three main elements are taken into
consideration:



the size of the problem and the extent to which the measure can help to reduce the problem
(effectiveness)
the cost of the measure
the support for implementation of the measure
As is noted in Vlaams Parlement, 2009 and Vlaams Parlement, 2010 in our current society the
87
public support for a measure becomes more and more important to increase the probability
that a measure can be implemented successfully. Therefore it is argued that the public should
be involved as early as possible while preparing policy decisions. However, in many cases it is
rather difficult to use this involvement of the public in an objective manner.
By assessing the amenability to treatment of the problem and the measure, one gains insight in each
of those three elements, and one can consequently provide policy-makers with useful and objective
information in order to select the most promising measures. Obviously, this has intrinsic strong policy
relevance.
Methodology
Public support is not easy to define, nor to measure. Public support for road safety is defined as the
positive valuation of road safety and of measures that evidently increase road safety. This positive
valuation leads, under favorable conditions, to an increased willingness to accept a measure and even
to an active support (Goldenbeld, 2002). Different elements can be taken up when defining public
support. However, from the perspective of traffic safety, more interest is put in defining the social
aspects that could lead to public support. The sum of the degree of acceptance by individuals
indicates whether there is public support for the measure or not. Therefore, public support can be
examined through measuring acceptability of individuals (Vlassenroot et al., 2006). A written survey is
the most frequently used method to do this. Other methods that could be used are surveys over
telephone, discussion groups, experimental sessions, etc. More structural methods (such as a list with
predetermined possibilities to answer) can be used for studies of measures of which respondents
already have experience. For new measures, methods with more freedom to answer are more suitable
(Goldenbeld, 2002).
Goldenbeld (2002) has noted that opinion and attitude studies are the most adopted research
methodologies to measure public support for road safety measures. One can distinguish between
different opinions and attitudes, that each have a different level of abstraction and include different
aspects of the support, that is: view on traffic safety as a common problem, compared to other
problems (for example unemployment, hart diseases…); opinions of the specific problem of road
unsafety (for example speeding, not wearing a seatbelt); opinions about certain solutions for specific
safety problems, such as effectiveness, justice and proportionality of the solution and at last opinions
about the expected own behavior and behavior of others when a new measure would be implemented.
Next to this public support, effectiveness and cost should be measured. The evaluation of
effectiveness of both new measures (ex-ante research) and measures that are already implemented
(ex-post research) will be done in projects 4.3 (ex-ante) and 5.3 (ex-post). In addition, published
research results for a wide range of measures are available in the scientific literature (e.g. Elvik et al.,
2009).
Thirdly, the cost of the measure plays an important role and needs to be considered when assessing
amenability to treatment. That way, the results can be balanced against the invested means. In the
end, we aim for the highest possible effects within a certain amount of financial means, or minimal
necessary means to reach a certain purpose (Nas, 1996).
The three dimensions mentioned above (public support, effectiveness and cost) are all of importance
for assessing the amenability of treatment. However, in order to decide on the most appropriate
measure in a certain situation, a global score could be helpful. This score takes all three dimensions
into account to some extent and measures can be ranked based on a numerical score. In the
computation of this score the assigned weights to each dimension as well as the type of aggregation
play an important role. Different techniques exist for deducing the importance of the dimensions
according to policy makers or experts (see e.g. Saaty, 1980; Hermans et al., 2008b). In terms of
aggregation, the idea that each dimension should at least be sufficiently fulfilled before a measure can
obtain a high global score, can be incorporated by means of special aggregation operators (see e.g.
Hermans et al., 2010). In the end, a sensitivity analysis will be performed (see e.g. Saltelli et al., 2008).
That way, an interval can be composed around the global score for each measure. The boundaries of
the interval indicate the minimum and maximum amenability to treatment score for each measure
given the selected weights and aggregation operators.
This approach can be applied on different traffic safety problems, from which several measures can be
88
evaluated. It can be applied both on new measures, as on widely implemented measures. One
example can be speeding at road works on highways, for which different measures could be
evaluated, such as education, dynamic traffic management, mobile speed controls, transversal rumble
strips… Here the same measures can be evaluated, as will be done in project 4.3, because from these
measures effectiveness will be extensively examined, which can be complemented with an evaluation
of public support a cost-effectiveness evaluation.
Data
In Flanders different studies are already being executed to examine the (cost)effectiveness of different
measures. Reecurrent evaluation gives an insight in attitudes towards a number of traffic safety
measures. However, all of them are only examined in a limited way. Also the relation between these
elements, and the application of this in the policy of traffic safety, has hardly been elaborated. The
present project will however not be limited to existing results in Flanders but will benefit also from
research results and data abroad.
To get a sight on the public support, the Belgian Road Safety Institute (IBSR) executes a triennial
measurement of attitudes towards traffic safety, which also obtains attitudes towards different traffic
safety measures. Different elements are examined, such as attitudes against fixed cameras, safer
infrastructure and more police controls. Also other available surveys will be included. A list of inclusion
criteria for potential data will be made. The examination of effectiveness will be based on exisiting
literature and research results from the previous Policy Research Centres in Flanders. Additional
results on the effectiveness of measures will be collected in projects 4.3 and 5.3 (ex-ante and ex-post
evaluation). Finally, also data about the costs of measures will be collected.
Output
The main result of this project will be a report that indicates the usefulness of the amenability to
treatment approach in Flanders with respect to traffic safety and provides an “amenability to treatment”
score for several road safety problems. Furthermore, the results of this project will be disseminated in
a journal paper and a presentation on a conference.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
1
100% 100%
p.m.
p.m.
Type
PY
Name
Ph. D. student
1
Ellen De Pauw1
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
89
Project (5.3): Impact of infrastructural road safety measures on traffic safety
Abstract
A lot is done to improve the infrastructure of the Flemish roads and consequently to improve traffic
safety. However, the impacts of these adaptations are not always clear, because an evaluation is not
always executed. Moreover, some infrastructural measures (either intended as safety improvement or
for some other purpose like better throughput) induce changes in the use of infrastructure like route
swaps to higher or lower category roads, herewith possibly affecting safety elsewhere in the network in
a positive or negative way. This evaluation is important to possibly adapt the measures, to learn from
for future measures and to invest the available means well. This project can help to gain a better
insight in the effectiveness of different measures that are already widely implemented, from which it
can be examined which effects these have on the number of crashes and the severity of these
crashes and on other, more intermediate outcomes, such as speed.
Problem statement
A permanent purpose in traffic safety is lowering the number of accidents, in order to reduce the
number of killed and injured road users. Different purposes are stated, of which the most recent one is
that of the Federal Commission of Traffic Safety, that endorses the purposes of the European
Commission and states the target to lower the number of deaths in 2020 by 50% against the number
in 2010, which will be a maximum of 420 (FCVV, 2011). The Flemish government takes different
initiatives to reach this goal, of which one is the adaptation of the infrastructure (Departement MOW,
2008; FCVV, 2011), for which the government has an important and direct impact at the Flemish,
provincial and local level.
It is important to implement infrastructural measures that effectively tackle road safety. An essential
element in setting up effective measures is evaluation, which is important during all steps of the policy
process. When a measure is not implemented yet, and its effectiveness and efficiency are to be
examined, an ex-ante research can be executed (for more information, see project 4.3). During the
process of adoption, to see to what extent planned activities or intervening purposes are reached, an
ex-durante evaluation can be used. Ex-post evaluation can be done after a project or activity is
completely executed (Van Malderen & Macharis, 2009).
Past research concluded that ex-post policy evaluation is not common (DVS, SWOV & KiM, 2011).
This has different causes, such as the fact that there is often more attention for future, and less for
executed activities. Also organizational problems can bring about some problems, for example lack of
money (DVS, SWOV & KiM, 2011).
However, there is a trend toward an increasing degree of evaluation of traffic safety measures. In
recent years evaluations of different measures were executed of which the Traffic Safety Policy
Research Centre carried out several. Examples are studies about the effect of conflict-free traffic
lights on traffic safety (Dreesen & Nuyts, 2006), the traffic safety effect of roundabouts in Flanders (De
Brabander et al., 2005; Daniels et al, 2006; Daniels et al., 2008b), reorganization of throughways (Van
Hout & Brijs, 2008b), lowering speed limit from 90 to 70 km/h (Van Geirt & Nuyts, 2006); possible
evaluation methods when evaluating the black spot program (Moons, 2009), etc. Next to this, different
evaluations are planned in the near future, such as the evaluation of speed and red light cameras and
the effectiveness of the black spot program. Still, the number of effectiveness measurements of road
infrastructure adaptations in Flanders remains limited and more extensive research is needed.
Examples of measures that are extensively examined abroad in an ex-post evaluation study are
variable speed limits (Bertini et al., 2007; Buddemeyer et al., 2010), signalization at work zones (Li &
Bay, 2009) or restricting speed limits (Bhatnagar et al., 2010; Ragnoy, 2011).
Often disregarded in safety analyses are network effects. It is frequently assumed that local measures
merely have local impacts, and therefore local data are collected and analyzed (e.g., on the impact of
a speed limit reduction on a dangerous N-road). However, systematically deploying local measures
(e.g. frequent use of speed reduction as a means to fight unsafety on N-roads, systematically
rebuilding unsafe intersections as roundabouts) might cause traffic to avoid this road and reroute over
other road types that might be safer (e.g. rerouting to motorways) or less safe (e.g. local roads). A
similar network effect might cause unexpected (positive or negative) safety impacts of measures that
were not even conceived for safety reasons; e.g. capacity increase of a congested motorway may
improve travel times and hence attract former rat-running traffic from lower category, less safe roads.
The interplay between structure of the road network, traffic flow conditions (including traffic
management) and route choice behavior and its consequent impact on network traffic safety has been
90
described by Dijkstra (2010) for Dutch conditions. Also Immers et al. (2009) highlight the importance of
these effects. A thorough analysis for Flanders is however lacking.
Policy relevance
An important reason for evaluation is to learn from for the future, which can help to see what is
effective and how future initiatives can be made more effective (Tones & Green, 2004). Evaluation can
show whether and how the existing measure should be adapted at different elements, such as the
purposes, the process and the products. Also it can help to learn from for similar or related measures
to make them as effective as possible or to learn not to make the same mistakes again in future
measures. At last it can help to gain an insight in evaluation itself (DVS, SWOV & KiM, 2011). Next to
this, evaluation is important to give account and explain why certain means are used for a specific
purpose (Brug et al., 2008). A good evaluation is important to determine which interventions are worth
to be performed and to decide if means are invested well. In the recent past, ex-post evaluation has
been considered as important by the Flemish Government, who commissioned the evaluation of the
black spot program and the speed and red light cameras (Vlaams parlement, 2010).
Ex-post research can have four main purposes. First, it can examine if the right purposes and target
groups are reached, and if measures are executed as planned. Secondly, it can help to determine
whether this achievement of goals is attributable to the measure, since at the same time different
measures can be executed. Thirdly, the suitability of the policy can be examined and whether the
effects are in proportion to the costs. When execution is suitable, fourthly the proportion of costs and
quality of performances, products and services can be evaluated. Therefore, a social cost-benefit
analysis can be executed, where the effects on society are expressed in monetary terms (DVS, SWOV
& KiM, 2011).
Finally, network effects of safety measures, (dynamic) traffic management or infrastructure changes
are highly relevant for Flanders, given its dense network of highly interconnected roads and high
congestion levels. Ex-post evaluation of network effects can help understanding the nature and extent
of this phenomenon in Flanders. This knowledge helps anticipating and avoiding undesirable network
effects, and will provide suggestions on how to exploit network effects to induce desirable safety
effects.
Methodology
The most reliable method to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention, such as a traffic safety
measure, is an experimental study. Because it is ethically unacceptable to randomly decide which
dangerous traffic points will be handled, using this method is often not possible. Subsequently, the
most appropriate non-experimental study is a before-after study (Elvik, 2002; Shinar, 2007), in which
the number of crashes before an intervention is compared to the number of crashes after that
intervention. This method uses the same objects before and after the introduction of a measure, so a
kind of causality can be identified. When choosing before-after studies, different methods can be used,
dependent on the extent to which they control for confounding variables. To take confounding effects
into account, the Empirical Bayes (EB) method is assumed to be the most appropriate one. This
method takes the general trends in traffic into account. Also regression to the mean is controlled,
because some interventions are set up at places with an extensively high number of crashes.
However, since chance plays an important role in the occurrence of accidents, it can be expected that
the number of crashes will decrease, irrespective of the measures that took place. Also, the EB
method controls for traffic volumes, which can be an important factor in the occurrence of crashes. To
control for confounding factors, the EB method uses a control group, which consists of actual locations
in the area that are comparable with the locations under study, but where the measure under study
has not been applied.
Next to the examination of the effect on crashes, which is the final outcome of traffic safety measures,
it would also be interesting to examine the effect on more intermediate outcomes, such as speed.
Therefore, speed data from existing measurement equipment could be used, which can be
complemented with extra speed measurements on places where no equipment is present. Because of
high costs, this has to be well considered, but examining the effects of certain measures, such as
dynamic traffic management, could give more advanced results.
In addition, the final and intermediate outcomes of a measure will be set off against the costs of that
measure. A social cost-benefit analysis of a measure will reveal whether invested means are in
91
proportion to the results that are reached.
In consultation with the customer, it can be decided which measures are to be evaluated, and how this
will be done. Examples of measures that can be evaluated are: digital panels as a speed management
tool in highway work zones or at secondary roads, transversal rumble strips and digital panels to warn
drivers for work zones at highways, 50 km/h speed limit on former 70 km/h roads, lower speed limit in
the Kennedytunnel in Antwerp and dynamic traffic management on highways. This list is not limitative
and can be changed or expanded in consultation with parties, such as the Agency of Roads and
Traffic.
Especially dynamic traffic management (DTM) at highways on the one hand and at work zones on the
other hand seem to be important subjects. DTM is an important element to improve traffic safety
through warnings for congestion or hazards and homogenized traffic flows, which is more and more
widely implemented in Flanders. This can be examined in cooperation with the Flemish Traffic Centre.
An evaluation of the DTM can be executed in two ways: directly, through analyzing the number of
crashes according to the application of the DTM tools in different traffic situations (working zones,
weather conditions, traffic flows); and also indirectly, through analyzing the impact of DTM deployment
on intermediate outcomes such as traffic flows, shock waves, speeds (e.g. Corthout & Tampère,
forthcoming), choice of alternative routes etc. and then statistically linking those to traffic safety (e.g.
using surrogate safety measures).
For the analysis of network effects, a methodology is developed based on approaches known in the
literature combined with the expertise of the consortium. In order to fine tune and validate the
methodology, a case study will be selected in close consultation with the client. Since route choice in
networks is concerned with focus on switches between different road categories, the selection of the
case study will be affected among others by factors such as data availability of traffic volumes on the
lower category roads and existence of/feasibility to build (dynamic) traffic models with sufficient
network detail. Examples of measures that may induce significant network effects are: systematic
replacement of signalized intersections with roundabouts, 70 km/h speed limit in the Kennedy tunnel,
systematic introduction of conflictless traffic signal control (that increases average intersection delays),
systematic introduction of modern, efficient vehicle actuated control (that decrease average
intersection delays).
Data
A lot of data are available in the current Traffic Road Safety Policy Research Centre. On the one hand
the Policy Research Centre has carried out a lot of research, on which proposals in this project can
build, both qua method and data. On the other hand, the Policy Research Center has closely
cooperated with a number of local police districts, provincial and regional departments of the
Infrastructural Agency of the Flemish Government, the department of Mobility and Public Works and
the BRSI (Belgian Road Safety Institute). These data are largely available for further research.
Available data that are of great importance in an ex-post research is the number of crashes and more
specific geo-coded crash data. Next to this final outcome, also intermediate outcomes such as speed,
would help to execute some interesting evaluations. Therefore, existing speed rates could be used,
which can be supplemented with additional speed measurements. To measure the effectiveness of
DTM, information about traffic flows, measured speeds, etc. from the data warehouse of the Flemish
Traffic Centre is necessary. Next to this, data are necessary of road characteristics, such as speed
limits, number of lanes, intersections with traffic lights, etc.. In addition, the location of the measure
and the time of introduction are of crucial importance. Finally opportunities for extra data (such as
police districts carrying out measurements, small interventions that must be evaluated) will certainly be
seized. For the analysis of network effects, additional measurements on the lower road categories
may be required. These can be acquired by the specialized services of the Flemish Government
(Afdeling Verkeer & Telematica) or by private traffic data providers (TomTom, Be-Mobile). The latter
might be more expensive, but private providers might deliver invaluable information on route choice
along with pure traffic data records. A budget for acquiring additional measurements is included in this
offer.
For the social cost-benefit analysis, data on the costs of the infrastructural measures are required. For
these we will base ourselves on information for the selected case studies at the Infrastructural Agency
92
of the Flemish Government and the department of Mobility and Public Works. In addition, we will base
ourselves on the scientific literature to derive estimates of the value of a change in accident risks, the
value of time savings, the marginal cost of public funds, etc.
Output
Two case studies will be set up in this project. The topics of these case studies will be determined in
consultation with the Flemish administration. A suggestion for a first topic to start with in 2012 and to
finish by the end of 2013, can be the evaluation of dynamic speed management on motorways in the
Antwerp area.
The main output for both case studies in this project will consist of a research report, written in Dutch.
This report will contain a dedicated section with policy recommendations.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Name
100%
Ph. D. student
2
Ellen De Pauw1
100%
50%
Ph. D. student
1,5
N.4
20%
20%
40%
Researcher
0,5
Inge Mayeres5
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Chris Tampère4
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Co-Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
100%
1
PY
100%
100%
Impact of infrastructural road
5.3
safety measures on traffic safety
Type
93
Project (5.4): Measuring is knowing: evaluating the effectiveness of an educative insight program
Abstract
Over the last few years, so-called insight programs have flourished enormously under impulse of the
apparition of the Goals for Driving Education (GDE) matrix. Insight programs focus on higher-order
skills and address the motivational orientations behind driving. Despite their rising popularity, there is
no clear view on the effectiveness of these programs. Scientists therefore recommend that educators
and policy makers evaluate their work in order to obtain directions for improving it and to document its
effectiveness.
The Flemish Government‟s substantial investments in traffc safety education in general, and more
particularly, in insight programs as the ones described above (e.g., Horen, zien en rijden:
voorbereiding op verkeersvaardigheid in het kleuteronderwijs; Bike@School!; Stappen en fietsen:
samen denken, uitwerken en doen!; On the Road; Mobiplus; Ready to ride; Verkeersgetuigen, etc. ),
motivates the need to carry out program evaluations even more.
The final objective of this project will be to subject an already existing (or newly developed) Flemish
educational insight program to an outcome effect evaluation on the basis of which policy
recommendations can be proposed as to how the program studied could be (further) improved.
Problem statement
At the end of the ‟90, the European Commission launched the GADGET-project (Guarding Automobile
Drivers through Guidance Education and Technology) with the end-purpose of increasing road safety
by means of driver-oriented behavioural change strategies (Hatakka et al., 2002). Besides
investigating engineering & technology-based strategies, the focus was on education & training-based
approaches as they were organized at that time across Europe. In that context, an inventory of
existing education & training programs was made. These programs in turn, were screened into the
detail with respect to content, materials, objectives, teaching methods, practical formats, etc.
The screening tool developed to this purpose, was the so-called Goals for Driving Education (GDE)
matrix (Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, 2009). It was based on risk factors gleaned
from accident data and on existing research which identified the operational, tactical and strategic
levels of driver behaviour. This GDE-matrix has been instrumental in subsequent EU projects such as
DAN (Bartl, 2000), BASIC (Hatakka et al., 2003), Advanced (Sanders, 2003) and NovEV (Sanders &
Keskinen, 2004) and in providing conceptual support for countries wishing to confront the issue of
accident reduction. It identifies 4 levels of driver behaviour: the operational, tactical, strategic and
lifestyle/personality levels and the knowledge and skills required on each level (including risk factors
and an ability to perceive one‟s strengths and weaknesses).
Benchmarking the GDE-matrix with most European countries‟ driver licensing systems leads to one
basic conclusion: current driver training and testing focuses primarily on the lower levels of driver
behaviour, namely the operational and tactical levels (vehicle control and driving in traffic), and fails to
address the higher levels of behaviour (trip-related issues and the influence of personality and lifestyle,
self-evaluation etc). Comparable conclusions were reported in U.S. (McKnight, 2001) and Australian
studies (Senserrick & Haworth, 2005). Senserrick & Haworth (2005, p.5), reviewing literature on
international driver education, licensing and regulatory systems, summarized the state-of-the-art as
follows:


Traditional driver training tends to concentrate on physical vehicle-related skills and lowerorder cognitive skills, without attending to other higher-order skills (Herregods et al., 2001),
and usually includes some teaching of road and traffic laws.
Motivational orientations behind driving are generally overlooked, making it less likely that
optimal safe driving practices will be adopted regardless of the level of congruity between
driving skills and task demands of the (young) driver (Peräaho et al., 2003).
In response to these findings, worldwide, academics as well as practitioners and policy makers started
to explore and invest in new methods and strategies. In general, this generated a shift from training
towards education. Even though both terms are used interchangeably, each represents
distinguishable concepts (Christie, 2001; Horneman, 1993; Siegrist, 1999). While driver training refers
to a specific instructional program or a set of procedures that relates more specifically to car control or
„craft‟, driver education encompasses a more contemplative and value-based instruction of knowledge
and attitudes relating to safe driving behaviour. Education generally covers a broader range of topics
94
than training and is carried out over a longer period.
Characteristic for the education paradigm are so-called insight programs. The term stems from the
Swedish Insight Program (Gregersen, 1996a, 1996b) with the central objective of these programs
being to address poor driving-related attitudes and motivational orientations associated with greater
risk-taking behaviour, including overconfidence, overestimation of skills, and underestimations of risk.
Put differently, insight programs intend to raise awareness and improve insight into factors that
contribute to road trauma (Senserrick & Haworth, 2005). The underlying key-assumption is that it is
not the amount or level of skill that is important, but rather when and to what extent that skill is
implemented to achieve and maintain safe driving (Dols, et al., 2001).
Over the last few years, such insight programs have flourished enormously (Carcary et al., 2001;
Catchpole & Coutts, 2002; Catchpole & Stephenson, 2001; Fisher et al, 2002; Fisher et al., 2006;
Isler, 2009; Isler et al., 2009; Kjelsrud & Sandvik, 2009; Kuiken & Twisk, 2001; Lough et al., 2002;
Molina et al., 2007; Nolén et al., 2002; Nyberg & Engström, 1999; Regan et al., 2000; Senserrick &
Swinburne, 2001; Stanton et al., 2007). Despite their rising popularity however, there is no clear view
on the effectiveness of these programs. The least one can say is that the literature remains undecided.
While some studies (Ker et al., 2005; Sanders, 2003) state it is too early to conclude that educational
courses and programs reduce accident involvement, the EU-NovEV-project team (Sanders &
Keskinen, 2004) argues that such interventions can indeed positively influence driving behaviour. As
the consortium continues, the reason why some studies have not found any substantial effects can be
due to one of the following reasons:

From a methodological perspective, some studies have chosen accidents or injuries as
outcome variables to examine program effectiveness. Yet, as indicated by Willems & Cuyvers
(2005) and Dragutinovic & Twisk (2006), the number of accidents/injuries that occurs during
the evaluation period, is often too low in order to be able to detect any serious effects.

From a practical perspective, effectiveness is largerly dependent upon the way in which these
educational programs are being implemented. Indeed, even though one might come up with a
perfect program format, programs on paper can be differently implemented in practice
(Sanders & Keskinen, 2004, p.7).

From a theoretical perspective, intervention effectiveness is dependent upon the variables that
are being targeted by program developers (Delhomme, et al., 2009). Unfortunately, the
selection of these target variables is not always sufficiently evidence-based. This in turn,
increases the risk of ending up with a good intended and attractive, but ineffective program,
simply because the true key-variables are not being addressed (Brijs et al., 2009b).
This brings Delhommet al. (2009, p.23) to plead in favour of investing more time and effort in decently
evaluating education programs: “Governments and authorities at different levels invest a great
deal of money and effort in changing the behaviour of road users. […] Do we really know if the
many current efforts are successful? In our minds, the answer is no. Without rigorous
evaluation and reporting, it is very difficult to know whether a campaign is successful or not.
Evaluations also tell us whether the investment was worthwhile, a fact which in turn may affect
future funding.” Dragutinovic & Twisk (2006, p.13) draw a comparable conlusion: “Professional
educators must evaluate their work in order to obtain directions for improving it and to document its
effectiveness.” According to Delhomme et al. (2009, p.289) an important additional motivation behind
evaluation is that it allows to find out what elements did not work, since this information will permit
campaigners to avoid similar mistakes in future campaigns.
As further outlined below, this project will pick in on these recent developments within the field of traffic
safety education.
Policy relevance
In line with insights behind the GDE-matrix, the Flemish Government has inscribed target-group
specific sensibilization and education initiatives, focused more specifically at the induction and
maintenance of intrinsic safe mentalities and behaviours, as a top priotity in several of its strategic
policy documents (Departement MOW, 2003; Departement MOW, 2008; Vlaams Parlement 2009).
Currently already, the Flemish Government substantially invests in traffc safety education in general,
and more particularly, in insight programs as the ones described above. For instance, the Flemish
Foundation for Traffic Knowledge (FFT) has developed a whole series of such insight courses for
various road user populations and for different age categories (e.g., Horen, zien en rijden:
voorbereiding op verkeersvaardigheid in het kleuteronderwijs; Bike@School!; Stappen en
95
fietsen: samen denken, uitwerken en doen!; On the Road; Mobiplus; Ready to ride).
We retake scientists‟ explicit recommendation to evaluate these programs in order to be able to
document their effectiveness and to find out what elements did (or did not) work, so that directions for
future improvements can be formulated (Delhomme et al., 2009; Dragutinovic & Twisk, 2006).
Methodology
The final objective of this project will be to subject an already existing (or newly developed) Flemish
educational insight program to an outcome effect evaluation according to the (well-known) procedure
outlined by Sentinella (2004), and with a focus, not only on (self-reported) behaviour, but also on the
underlying motivation and its most important socio-cognitive determinants (Bartholomew et al., 2006).
Since both motivation and most of its underlying socio-cognitive determinants (such as knowledge,
attitudes, beliefs, self-efficacy, anticipated emotions, etc.) are changeable, the advantage of such an
evaluative approach is that potentially realizeable policy recommendations can be proposed as to how
the program studied could be (further) improved.
Task (5.4)a: Selecting a test case
As already indicated, there are several potential candidate programs for this project. Final selection of
the test case will be determined in narrow consultation with the Flemish Government. However, for
several reasons, the program called Verkeersgetuigen might be of special interest, in which traffic
victims are involved in traffic safety education. Contrary to most road users, traffic victims can be
considered as a special type of experts since they have had the unfortunate experience of being
involved in (traumatizing) accidents.
First and most importantly, special care and attention towards traffic victims as well as the intention to
involve them more narrowly into traffic safety education (, is stipulated as a policy priority (Vlaams
Parlement, 2009) and corresponds to an internationally increasing trend (e.g., the Dutch program
Traffic Informers, the U.S. Victim Impact Panels, or the Australian program Never the Same Again)
(Van Vlierden, 2006).
Secondly, Verkeersgetuigen continues to grow with sessions organized in other Flemish provinces as
well. The Minister has therefore decided to further invest into the program.
Thirdly, in the stage of still being a pilot project (Povincie Limburg: 2005-2006), Verkeersgetuigen was
evaluated a first time in 2006. The evaluation itself was mostly based on qualitative techniques (i.e.,
focus group discussions and a small-scale questionnaire) and found effects rather on program
reception-specific aspects such as perceived usefulness, believeability, empathy, and satisfaction,
than on behaviour, or motivation, or deeper situated socio-cognitive determinants. Thus, participants
were enthusiastic and appreciative towards both content and format (i.e., interpersonal, face-to-face
group discussions), but further improvements were recommended (Petermans & Gysen, 2006). A
decent evaluation of the program as it currently runs, could provide valuable insight in its effectiveness
and any eventual strengths or weaknesses.
Task (5.4)b: Identifying the evaluation measures
The final objectives and key-determinants of the behaviour(s) targeted by the program have to be
identified. To that purpose, the program itself (i.e., brochures, websites, course materials, interviews
with program adopters and implementers, etcetera) will be reviewed, in combination with relevant
literature on comparable programs. In order not to miss any important variables, the research team will
also look at literature within the fields of health- & social psychology because it contains several useful
models for the prediction and understanding of human behaviour (e.g., Theory of Planned Behaviour,
Protection Motivation Theory, Health Belief Model, Social Cognition Theory, Theory of Interpersonal
Behaviour, etcetera). In combination, a round of focus group discussions could be organized with
representatives of the target group (i.e., secondary school attenders in case of Verkeersgetuigen in
order to comment on what comes out of the program and literature screening and to further complete
the list of key-determinants if necessary.
Task (5.4)c: Constructing a theoretical model
Once the key-determinants of the behaviour(s) under study have been identified, they wil be related
with each other in a theoretical model that will be empirically verified. In determining these mutual
relationships, we will adopt an evidence-based approach (Bartholomew et al., 2006). That is, the
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available literature will be consulted in order to find support for the proposed structure of the
theoretical model.
Task (5.4)d: Questionnaire development
The concepts included in the theoretical model will be operationalised by means of multiple-item
measurement scales. Besides the fact that the existing literature contains reliable and validated
measurement instruments for a wide range of concepts involved in this kind of research, IMOB can
build upon quite an extensive prior experience with traffic safety-related questionnaires alike (Brijs et
al., 2011c; Brijs et al., 2010a; De Jong et al., 2010). Before its final implementation, a first version of
the questionnaire will be subjected to a small-scale pilot test.
Task (5.4)e: Pilot testing
A subsample of representatives of the target group will fill out the questionnaire. Afterwards, they can
comment on the selection and wording of items, scale formats and instructions, etcetera, and the
questionnaire will be modified accordingly.
Task (5.4)f: Sample recruitement
In case of Verkeersgetuigen, the best way to proceed in terms of sample recruitement would be to
involve the existing secondary school network. This could be done for instance, in narrow partnership
with the Flemish Foundation for Traffic Knowledge (FFT). IMOB and FFT have cooperated
successfully in another intervention evaluation project before (Brijs et al, 2010a:Evaluation of the On
the Road post-license education program).
Task (5.4)g: Data collection & analysis
Cf. section below
Data
In terms of internal validity, it would be best to collect data within a fully randomized experimental
control vs. test group design with a before and after measurement. In addition to that, if the intention
would be to examine the durability of any potential program effects, a longitudinal set-up would be
required with supplementary after measurements (for instance 3 months following the test group‟s
exposure to the program), preferably in both test- and control groups.
The questionnaires will be self-administered by the respondents and can be offered in paper-pencil or
digital format. Respondents, will receive a series of statements and/or questions and can indicate their
answer on traditional uni- and/or bipolar 5- or 7-point scales in Likert or semantic differential style.
The data analysis, will go through six steps: (1) screening and cleaning, (2) descriptive statistics
(means, standard deviations, etcetera), (3) validity and (test- re-test) reliability of the different concepts
included in the theoretical model by means of principal component exploratory factor analysis with
varimax rotation and Cronbach‟s alpha, (4) (M)AN(C)OVA, (5) Pearson‟s correlation, and (6) ordinary
least squares regression analysis.
Output
The main output of this project will be a policy report (written in Dutch) to provide guidelines to improve
an educational program such as Verkeersgetuigen. Besides that an English paper in a specialist
scientific journal will be published and a presentation at an international conference will be given.
Team & Planning
2012
2013
2014
2015
Measuring is knowing:
5.4 evaluating the effectiveness of
an educative insight program
1
Type
PY
Name
100%
100%
Researcher
1
A. Cuenen1
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
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4.3.6 WORK PACKAGE 6: VALORISATION
This workpackage deals with the dissemination and valorisation of the research results within the
Policy Research Centre.
To maximise the societal benefits from research, findings need to be disseminated as broadly as
possible to allow access by other researchers and the wider community.
Valorisation is the use, for socio-economic purposes, of the results of research financed by public
authorities. It represents society's direct and indirect return on the public sector's investment in
research and development. In the perspective of the Policy Research Centre‟s objectives, valorisation
is mainly related towards the transfer of research results to actual implementation in the Flemish road
safety policy.
Consequently, clear links can be seen between valorisation and dissemination. An effective
dissemination strategy clearly contributes to research valorisation. However, a successful research
valorisation strategy should go further than merely communicating research results.
The dissemination and valorisation activities of the Policy Research Centre are extensively described
in section 5.
4.3.7 WORK PACKAGE 7: PROJECT MANAGEMENT
4.3.7.1 M ANAGEMENT STRUCTURE AND SUPERVISION OF THE P OLICY R ESEARCH C ENTRE
The Policy Research Centre is managed according to the model presented in Figure 4. This model
assumes the management structure which is described in the call document and the model
management agreement. The model describes both the external supervision of the Policy Research
Centre by the constituent and the internal project organisation.
Figure 4: External and internal project organisation
4.3.7.2 E XTERNAL SUPERVISION OF THE P OLICY R ESEARCH C ENTRE BY THE CONSTITUENT
The strategic objectives of the Policy Research Centre, as well as the overall time span within which
these must be pursued or realised, are incorporated in the multi-year plan that is attached to the
management agreement. Each year an annual plan and budget are established according to the
modalities in the model management agreement. Furthermore, each year an annual report and a
financial report will be established, also according to the modalities in the management agreement.
98
The Steering Committee is the platform where the strategic level and the research level hold
consultations. As foreseen in the model management agreement, the Steering Committee assists the
policy council in the supervision of the functioning of the Policy Research Centre at research level. The
Steering Committee will be composed as foreseen in the model management agreement. There will
be consultation with the services of the functional minister concerning the number of representatives of
the Policy Research Centre.
The MOW (Mobility and Public Works) Policy Council watches over the harmonisation between
and the flow of and to the Policy Research Centre and policy. This implies participation in
agendasetting and programming, but also care for flow, processing and appropiate follow-up of the
research into policy and the care for suitable absorption capacity (within the existing staff frame of the
Flemish administration). This task is carried out by the Policy Council‟s representative of the
functionally competent administration and the representative of the functionally heading minister.
4.3.7.3 I NTERNAL PROJECT ORGANISATION
The internal project organisation operates at 3 levels: projects, work packages and Policy Research
Centre as a whole. The Policy Research Centre includes 5 substantive (WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5,
see PART 3) and 2 supporting work packages (WP6 Valorization and WP7 Project management),
each headed by a work package co-ordinator. Each of the 5 substantive work packages has been
subdivided in a number of projects, each with its own project leader at senior level.
A. P OLICY R ESEARCH C ENTRE AS A WHOLE
The management of the Policy Research Centre is in the hands the Executive Committee. The
Executive Committee is in charge of the following tasks (in accordance with the management
agreement):
1. determining an institutional long-term strategic orientation;
2. realizing a structural interaction between the researchers and the research groups of the
involved institutions;
3. realizing a structural involvement of the research groups in the decision-making process of:
a. institutionally conceiving the Policy Research Centre,
b. the contents of the organised scientific research;
4. developing structural interaction with other Policy Research Centres for policy-relevant
research, of which the tasks show substantive common grounds with the ones of this Policy
Research Centre.
The composition of the Executive Committee is as follows:











Stijn Daniels (UHasselt-IMOB)
Thérèse Steenberghen (KUL-SADL)
Elke Hermans (UHasselt-IMOB)
Inge Mayeres (VITO)
Kris Brijs (UHasselt-IMOB)
Tom Brijs (UHasselt-IMOB)
Edith Donders (UHasselt-IMOB)
Stef Proost (KUL-ETE)
Yves De Weerdt (VITO)
Chris Tampère (KUL-CIB)
Tim De Ceunynck (UHasselt-IMOB)
(promoter – co-ordinator)
(work package coordinators)
(project leaders)
(Ph. D. student)
Furthermore the Executive Committee may invite extra experts to join the Committee.
The Executive Committee will draw up internal regulations with respect to the internal organization of
its activities and decision taking.
99
All the work package coordinators are part of the Executive Committee and all participating research
groups concerned have been represented. The chairmanship of the Executive Committee rests with
the promoter – coordinator. The secretariat is manned by the involved PhD-student.
The operational control of the Policy Research Centre rests with the promoter – coordinator. He is the
Policy Research Centre‟s representative and the unique contact point for the Flemish Government.
Within the consortium the promoter – coordinator has been authorised to handle day-to-day
management. He is accessible and responsible with respect to the Flemish Government (the
constituent). The promoter - coordinator is mandated by the consortium for the full project term.
The promoter - coordinator is assisted by a part-time project secretary, a part-time financial
employee and by the communication specialist.
B. W ORK PACKAGES
The work package coordinators are responsible for the execution of the projects in their work
package and in particular for the interaction and the internal knowledge transfer between the different
projects within the same work package. As a rule a work package includes multiple projects of
different nature as indicated in the multi-year programme. Work package coordinators are senior
researchers who are employed on a permanent basis at the participating institutions. Their input as a
work package coordinator of the Policy Research Centre is unpaid.
C. P ROJECTS
Each project is headed by a project leader. The project leader is expected to supervise the research
and have a strong affinity with the research. They are senior researchers from the permanent staff of
the participating institutions. The work package coordinators and the project leaders can, but do not
need to be the same person. A detailed list of the work package coordinators, project leaders and
researchers is depicted here below.
Table 2: Detailed list of WP co-ordinators, project leaders and researchers
WP co-ordinators
Project leaders
Researchers
WP1
T. Steenberghen
(KUL-SADL)
1.1
T. Steenberghen (KUL-SADL)
D. Tirry (KUL-SADL)
1.2
E. Hermans (UHasselt-IMOB)
N. (UHasselt-IMOB)
E. Hermans
(UHasselt-IMOB)
2.1
S. Daniels (UHasselt-IMOB)
K. Van Hout (UHasselt-IMOB)
2.2
T. De Ceunynck + N. (UHasselt-IMOB)
2.3
T. Steenberghen (KUL-SADL)
K. Nevelsteen (KUL-SADL)
3.1
K. Brijs (UHasselt-IMOB)
N. (UHasselt-IMOB)
3.2
3.3
Y. De Weerdt (VITO)
C. Tampère (KUL-CIB)
D. Janssens (UHasselt-IMOB)
N. (VITO)
N. (KUL-CIB)
4.1
E. Jongen (UHasselt-IMOB)
N. (UHasselt-IMOB)
4.2
N. (UHasselt-IMOB)
4.3
N. (UHasselt-IMOB)
5.1
S. Proost (KUL-ETE)
S. Rousseau + N. (KUL-ETE)
5.2
E. De Pauw (UHasselt-IMOB)
5.3
C. Tampère (KUL-CIB)
N. (KUL-CIB)
E. De Pauw (UHasselt-IMOB)
I. Mayeres (VITO)
5.4
A. Cuenen (UHasselt-IMOB)
6.1
E. Donders (UHasselt-IMOB)
E. Donders (UHasselt-IMOB)
P. Hellriegel (UHasselt-IMOB)
N. Smeyers (UHasselt-IMOB)
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
WP6
I. Mayeres
(VITO)
K. Brijs
(UHasselt-IMOB)
T. Brijs
(UHasselt-IMOB)
E. Donders
(UHasselt-IMOB)
100
WP7
S. Daniels
(UHasselt-IMOB)
6.2
All researchers
7.1
N. Smeyers (UHasselt-IMOB)
7.2
A. Jacobs (UHasselt-IMOB)
7.3
4.3.7.4 E XTERNAL CONSULTATION AT PROJECTS AND WORK PACKAGE LEVEL
At the level of the workpackages, structured consultation will be organised between the researchers,
project leaders and a group of relevant users from the domain. The consortium will formalise this
consultation in user groups. Relevant participants are in any case officials from several sections of
the Flemish Government (e.g. the unit Policy Mobility and Road safety from the MOW department, the
departments Expertise Traffic and Telematics (EVT) and Electromechanics and Telematics (EMT)
withing the Agency Roads and Traffic of the Flemish Traffic centre), possibly completed with external
members such as the Flemish Forum Traffic Safety, provincial and municipal officials or policemen.
The user groups are a suitable forum for consultation and valorization of the different research
projects, from start to delivery of the results. Typically there will be three consultation moments for
each research project: at start up where the research plan is commented, when there is some
visibility on interim results (interim consultation) and in the end phase of the project, when a first
version of the research report is available and – based on the reccomendations of members of the
user group – adaptions in the research report are still possible.
Consequently, working with user groups has a triple aim:
1) tuning the Policy Research Centre‟s research work as much as possible to questions and
knowledge needs of potential end-users;
2) acting as a quality control instrument by matching the research work with the opinion of third
parties;
3) making sure the research results are used in Flanders (= valorization).
A work package coordinator of the Policy Research Centre is the contact point for the user group.
Researchers of the work package in question are present in function of the concrete agenda. We
propose to organise user group meetings two to three times a year. Since not all Policy Research
Centre‟s projects run simultaneously, some dynamics can be created where projects can be followedup along established lines, a reasonable spread of meeting burden is established and substantive
follow-up of projects on the content level is possible.
In order to make set-up and interpretation of user groups conrete, the consortium will formulate a
proposal to the Steering Committee and the MOW Policy Council
4.4 SHORT TERM QUESTIONS
As contracted in the management agreement, the Policy Research Centre for Traffic Safety reserves
capacity to provide an informed answer to emerging policy questions on the short term. 0,5 full-time
equivalent (FTE) researcher is reserved annually to handle these short-term questions. This allows the
Policy Research Centre to deal flexibly with arising questions that are unknown at the time the multiyear program is established or to handle questions that are relatively separate from the topics being
treated in the multi-year program projects.
The short-term questions are expected to be principally questions of knowledge-transfer of state-ofthe-art information about particular sub-aspects of road safety policy. Answering these questions will
require a thorough investigation of national and international literature and some specific analysis of
existing data sources such as the detailed road accident database. An example of such a question is
for instance: “What is the safety impact of turning off the street lighting during the night, and what are
crucial points of attention” or “what does the scientific literature say about the effect of a free right turn
for bicyclists at signalized intersections”? Answering these questions might also (additionally) or
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separately) require some data analysis, in particular by means of extracting specific information from
the Belgian road crash data set. .
It is expected that the dedicated research capacity is sufficient to answer about 4 of these questions
per year. The output is a brief executive summary of facts that provides a concise overview of the
current knowledge on the topic.
A procedure for organizing the information flow with respect to the short-term questions will be
elaborated and proposed to the Steering Committee.
4.5 TRANSVERSAL SOCIETAL THEMES
The policy Research Centre commits itself to pay attention to thethe transversal societal themes that
are listed in the Flemish governing agreement (Vlaamse regering, 2009) and the Flanders in Action
Plan (ViA, 2011).
13 transversal themes are listed in the Flanders in Action Plan: New industrial policy, international
breakthrough of enterprises, Innovation centre Flanders, learning society, poverty, Flanders‟ care,
renewable energy and smart grid, sustainable housing and living, sustainable materials management,
spatial planning, smart mobility, accelerated investment projects, towards a sustainable and creative
city.
Hereunder we describe how the research programme establishes links to these themes:







Smart mobility is present in projects 4.3 (Ex-ante evaluation of the impact of road
infrastructure on traffic) and 5.3 (Impact of infrastructural road safety measures on traffic
safety), in particular related to dynamic traffic management systems;
Project 2.3 (Area based approach towards traffic safety and livability) faces urban mobility and
is related to the theme “towards a sustainable and creative city”;
Project 3.3. (Transition to electric bicycles: what does it imply for traffic safety? ) relates to the
possible consequences of an extended adoption of electric bikes in the Flemish population.
This aspect relates to the horizontal theme Flanders care;
Aspects of innovation are present both in the research programme (project 3.3 on e-bikes,
project 5.3 on dynamic traffic management) and in the adopted research methods (driving
simulator research, automated image processing, gps-logging and behavioural observation
methods such as eye tracking);
Project 5.4. on the evaluation of an educational insight program, typically set up in secondary
schools, relates to the learning society theme;
Renewable energy is incorporated in the projects 3.3 on e-bikes;
Project 2.3 Area based approach towards traffic safety and livability is related to Spatial
planning and land use, but is also likely to deliver insights in aspects of sustainable housing
and living.
The theme of accelerated investment projects is referring to efficiency issues of government
expenditures. In that sense the project 5.1. on efficiency of road safety measures could contribute to
this theme. Also project 4.3 on ex ante evaluation of infrastructural measures can contribute to a faster
policy cycle.
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4.6 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
Arrangements on knowledge management (kennisbeheer) are described in detail in the cooperation
agreement that was signed by the partners in the consortium and submitted with the proposal.
4.7 METHOD OF EVALUATION AND POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE
PROGRAMME
The multi-year programme that is being proposed has the ambition of being sufficiently cohesive and
sector-encompassing to serve as a solid base for research in the next few years. Nevertheless, an
effective multi-year programme should also provide the flexibility needed to be able to react to
changing circumstances. Changed circumstances could relate to unforeseen evolutions (e.g. drastic
increase in the risk of congestion, unsafe situations among specific age groups or groups of roadusers), but also with changed opportunities or policy choices, for example, at European level. In
addition, the progress of the research itself (data problems or opportunities, intermediate results …)
may create a need to amend the research programme.
In that regard, the multi-year programme is ideally an instrument that provides, on the one hand,
sufficient stability for research over the long term, but, on the other hand, is flexible enough to allow
changes and evaluation. Such an evaluation and change process should be organised efficiently to
avoid the situation where improvisation and an exclusively ad-hoc approach drive the programme.
A procedure for possible amendments to the multi-annual programme and the yearly programme is
described in the administration agreement.
In addition, the consortium proposes to deal with possible amendments to the multi-year programme in
various ways:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Provide capacity to respond to short-term questions in the multi-year programme.
Incorporated flexibility in the proposed multi-year programme.
Formally streaming the consultation between the client and the contractor.
Setting up a system for scientific feedback.
Creating user groups with relevant partners.
a. Provide capacity to respond to short-term questions in the multi-year programme.
The Policy Research Centre is required to be capable to deliver policy support, apart from longer-term
research, also concerning emerging policy questions on the short term, through short-term tasks or ad
hoc tasks. In order to respond flexibly to these short-term questions, we have decided to keep
available the capacity of 0.5 full-time equivalent researcher yearly to be spent on answering
short-term questions.
As already indicated in section 4.4, the short-term research offers the advantage in comparison with
the long-term research of dealing flexibly with policy questions that are unknown at the time that the
multi-year programme is set or that are relatively separate from the topics that are being dealt with in
the multi-year programme projects. Such policy questions could be two-fold in nature: on the one
hand, questions of short-term research, e.g. into the known safety effects of a specific measure, an
analysis of safety data for a particular group of road users… On the other hand, questions of
knowledge-transfer of state-of-the-art information concerning sub-aspects of the policy. For example:
„what does the scientific literature say about the effect of a free right turn for bicyclists at
intersections‟?
b. Incorporated flexibility in the multi-year programme
The multi-year programme provides a direction for the work throughout the duration of the Policy
Research Centre. Nevertheless, the consortium is aware of the fact that modifications might be
103
required. The research proposals like included in the mulit-year program will be discussed with the
commissioner and be converted into more definitive projects in the annual research programmes.
Logically, the annual plans are based upon the multi-year programme, but they should also make it
possible to incorporate new questions and insights in the research to be carried out. When the annual
plan is being prepared, it is the ideal moment for the client to set priorities, make choices and
identify new research requirements. We have tried to anticipate to this by typically elaborating
research projects in which a possible framework for scientific analysis is described that can flexibly be
adapted to address various types of research questions. We always suggest in the project descriptions
possible cases of application for the analysis methods in order to show which the relevance of a
specific approach for policy making in Flanders could be, but explicitly don‟t limit ourselves to those
particular cases.
c. Formally streaming the consultations between the client and the contractor through the Steering
group and the Policy Council
As indicated in the administration agreement, both the Steering Group and the Policy Council (in the
present case: the Policy Council of the Department Mobility and Public Works) will formally manage
the Policy Research Centre. As indicated above a clear procedure for possible amendments to the
multi-annual programme and the yearly programme is described in the administration agreement.
These elements shape a clear formal framework that covers possible modifications in the research
programme.
d. Setting up a system for scientific feedback.
Establishing a system of quality control is indispensable in order to assure and harmonise the quality
level of the scientific output. We propose a quality control-system at 5 levels. We refer to section
5.4 for the details of this quality system.
e. Structural consultations with possible users in Flanders.
The research carried out by the Policy Research Centre should concentrate on usability and relevance
for Flemish policy. Where the scientific feedback includes a system for quality control in respect of the
quality of the research that is planned and being carried out, the consortium also wants to elaborate a
similar instrument to monitor the policy relevance of the research. Feedback from end users of the
research in Flanders is an important condition for developing a sufficiently demand-driven research
programme and, furthermore, presents opportunities for data acquisition and knowledge dissemination
to the work area concerned.
The consortium intends to set up specific user groups for the different work packages consisting of
relevant stakeholders (e.g. Agencies and divisions within the Department of Mobility and Public Works,
members of the Flemish Forum for Traffic Safety, experts). It is important for potential user groups to
add value in respect of the substance to the benefit of the interaction between the research in the
Policy Research Centre and the practical working environment. The user groups complement and not
replace any new or existing channels and forums for consultation.
Also the involvement of the user groups could finally result in some, presumably, slighter
recommendations to the steering group and the Policy council for modifications in the annual
programs.
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5 COMMUNICATION, VALORISATION AND QUALITY CONTROL
5.1 PUBLICATION AND VALORISATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
GENERATED
The dissemination and valorisation of the results of the research can be done in a variety of ways,
from direct information and communication with the customer or with the individuals and organisations
concerned, through conferences and symposia, to communication via the popular media.
The results of each study will be bundled into a research report. In principle, all research reports
produced by the Policy Research Centre are accessible to the public. The website of the Policy
Research Centre (www.roadsafetyresearch.be) will be the ideal medium to ensure that access. Also
journal publications and the policy research centre memoranda and press releases can be accessed
via this website.
Producing research reports is a necessary, but insufficient condition for disseminating the knowledge
acquired by the Policy Research Centre. On its own, producing research reports will most likely lead to
developing expertise among a limited group of the initiated. For this reason a communication strategy
will be set up who aims at passing on the the research results to the end-users as much as possible.
There are several reasons why such scientific communication is important (FWO, 2001):

Accountability to society: society has the right to know that government resources are being
used productively.

Influencing policy makers and those responsible for implementing policy: just as it is the
case with the majority of the population, policy makers are also strongly influenced by what
they read, see and hear in the media. A survey from the University of Loughborough shows
that politicians obtain the lion‟s share of their information from the press, and not from
university theses (FWO, 2001).

Stimulating additional funding: publishing research results can create interest from other
associations and business sectors who may wish to finance additional research. Inasmuch as
there is an increasing demand on public funds, this could be an interesting alternative for
expanding research work.

Stimulating the creation of a culture of „to measure is to know‟: organisations and
administrations read about the research and are stimulated to collect accurate data
themselves and to use them in their own work process or to make them available for research.

Increased control: by making the research public ourselves, the information can be
controlled better and uncontrolled or flat-out wrong communication can be avoided to a large
extent.
Nevertheless, policy-relevant research must be scientific research as well, which means that the
research has to comply with scientific requirements and rules.
Below we indicate how we will organize policy-specific and scientific communication of the research
results.
W EBSITE
An easy-to-use and user-friendly website shall become the reference point for publishing the
knowledge gathered by the Policy Research Centre. Except information on the contents and the
organisation of the Policy Research Centre, this website will integrate the full text of all research
reports and other publications which have come about within the framework of the Policy Research
Centre. Specific attention will go out to the clear organization and the accessibility of the information
on the website for the different end users (professionals with a wide range of interests and
backgrounds). The lay-out of the existing website will be refreshed and there will be consultation with
the user groups about the expectations with respect to the contents of the Policy Research Centre‟s
105
website. Fundamentally, all research reports of the Policy Research Centre will be made publicly
accessible.
Within the framework of projects 1.1. (Road Safety Monitor) and 1.2 (Yearly Report), the Policy
Research Centre will publish and regularly update a number of available and relevant statistics and
indicators (based on those statistics) with respect to road safety.
The website will be available in Dutch and English and will systematically be actualised so the
available information is always up-to-date and relevant.
A digital newsletter (see further) will be accessible via the website..
A RTICLES IN
PUBLICATI ONS
In contemporary science, publications in peer reviewed international journals are the most important
output indicators. Since such publications also imply an important element of quality control, it is
important for a Police Research Centre to develop an active publication policy. The submitting
consortium strives for a number of 15 international publications during or shortly after the duration of
the Policy Research Centre.
Relevant scientific publications in the road safety field are for example Accident Analysis and
Prevention, Traffic Injury Prevention, Transportation Research Record, Journal of Safety Research
and Safety Science.
Besides contributions in scientific publications, we will also contribute in Dutch language journals such
as Verkeerskunde or Verkeersspecialist.
Essentially for each research project we have chosen to submit at least one synthesis article for
publication in a scientific and/or popularising publication with a relevant target audience.
P ARTICIPATION
IN NATI ONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIA AND CONFERENCES
Papers will be submitted for conferences in Belgium and abroad. Here, too, both (national and
international) scientific conferences and more policy related traffic conferences will be targeted.
M EDIA
COMMUNICATION
In consultation with the offices of the responsible minister, reports with news value will be
communicated to the Flemish media. The Policy Research Centre will therefore formulate policy
recommendations, which will enable the ministry to communicate about the research results and take
appropriate action where and when needed.
D IGITAL
NEWSLETTER
At least twice a year a digital newsletter will appear. The newsletter will be distributed to relevant
users, such as the members of the Flemish Parliament, cabinet members‟ offices, officials at various
levels, municipal administrations, police districts, libraries, universities, consultants and anyone else
who subscribes via the website. The newsletter contains a popularising summary of the research
results. The emphasis will be on the accessibility of the presented information for the target audience.
By means of digital references in the newsletter, the interested reader can immediately access the
website for more information. Each time an article appears in the digital news letter, interested readers
can interact with the researchers involved through a forum on the website.
A NNUAL (F LANDERS ) CONFERENCE
ON TRAFFIC SAFETY
The consortium wants to organise at least one annual conference or other dissemination event aimed
specifically at the stakeholders in Flanders. Target audiences include officials, business, traffic
experts, policy makers, researchers and consultants who are concerned in one way or another with
mobility and traffic safety policy. Firstly we think of the Flanders conference on traffic safety that will be
106
th
organised for the 10 time in 2012 in partnership between the Flemish Foundation for Traffic
Knowledge (VSV) and the Policy Research Centre for Traffic Safety.
Also, national or international conferences and symposia with a specific focus (e.g. aimed at specific
target audiences) could be (co-)organised. An example is the yearly workshop of the International
Cooperation on Theories and Concepts in Traffic Safety (ICTCT).
R ESPONDING
TO EXTERNA L QUESTIONS
On request, Policy Research Center‟s personnel will provide information at meetings, courses,
symposia and other relevant fora. Questions from the functionally authorised minister, the Policy
Council, the Steering Committee and the Flemish administration (for example the Advisory Group
Road Safety on Flemish district ways) are given precedence.
T RAINING
DAYS AND SHORT - TERM COURSES
When a certain research project leads up to the development of applicable insights or methods at a
certain moment, training days and short-term courses will be offered. A possible partner in this, is the
Flemish Foundation for Traffic Knowledge (VSV).
I MPACT
ON THE ORGANIZATION
At the Policy Research Center‟s level, the operational management of the scientific communication will
be carried out by a part-time (0.25 FTE) scientific communication-employee and the required
budgetary resources are provided for publishing the newsletter, expanding the website, organizing an
annual conference and the publication of a yearbook. Although a specific person will be in charge of
this task, this does not mean that the valorization strategy of the Policy Research Centre should be
limited to this contribution. The different Policy Research Center‟s researchers will all contribute on
regular basis to provide to these valorization activities. This includes the making of policy relevant
summaries of research reports, preparing and giving presentations also in non-academic
environments, write contributions for the news letter and interact with the user groups. The working
time, required for these type of activities, will be an essential part of the work that is expected of the
researchers and is included in the provided man-years in section 7.1.
5.2 HOW THE RESULTS WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THE RESPONSIBLE
MINISTER
The consortium looks at the Flemish responsible minister – in addition to the status as formal
constituent – as the first user of all possible research results generated by the Policy Research
Centre. That means that all research results will be transferred in the most complete and direct form to
the minister .
All of the proposed forms of communication with respect to the research results will be announced in
advance to the minister responsible according to the statements of the administration agreement and
to the procedures that will be agreed upon in the steering committee. All communication will state
explicitly that the research was done as part of the programme „Policy Research Centres for Policyrelevant Research‟.
107
5.3 HOW THE POLICY RESEARCH CENTRE WILL IMPLEMENT
CONSULTATION WITH AND THE PARTICIPATION OF THE FLEMISH
GOVERNMENT AND OTHER CONCERNED ACTORS.
The Policy Research Centre will basically use three different channels to implement consultation with
and the participation of the Flemish government and other concerned actors. The Steering Group and
the Policy Council of the Department Mobility and Public Works have both a well-described formal
competence in the management of the Policy Research Centre. In addition to this, we propose to set
up user groups with relevant stakeholders at the operational level.
The Steering group will be the level on which the strategic level and the research level will meet. As
indicated in the administration agreement, the steering group assists the Policy Council of the
Department Mobility and Public Works in the management of the Policy Research Centre. The
composition of the steering group will be done according to the statements in the model of
administration agreement. The consortium will compose its delegation in accordance with the
statements in the administration agreement. Preferably each participating institution should be
represented.
The steering group plays an important role in the context of the contractual relationship between the
Flemish government as client and the operating consortium as contractor: monitoring the financial
planning and reporting of the formal terms of the administration agreement to be drawn up.
Moreover the steering group advises the Policy Council on the drafts of the annual programme, the
budget and the activity reports. The Steering group advises the Policy Council also on modifications to
the multi-annual programme.
The Policy Council of the Department Mobility and Public Works takes care of the interaction
between the Traffic Safety Policy Research Centre and the Policy level. As indicated in the model of
consortium agreement, this includes participation in the agenda setting and programming, but also the
care about the assimilation and follow-up of the policy relevant research to the Flemish policy including
the concern about suitable absorption capacity, given the existing personnel capacity within the
Flemish administration. This task will be executed by the representative of the functionally competent
policy domain in the Policy Council and the representative of the functionally competent minister. The
promoter-coordinator will represent the Traffic Safety Policy Research Centre at the Policy Council on
request.
The Policy Research Centre delegates the promoter-coordinator as its single contact point for the
relations with other actors, in particular the Flemish authority.
The research carried out by the Policy Research Centre should concentrate on usability and relevance
for Flemish policy. Where the scientific feedback includes a system for quality control in respect of the
quality of the research that is planned and being carried out, the consortium also wants to elaborate a
similar instrument to monitor the policy relevance of the research. Feedback from end users of the
research in Flanders is an important condition for developing a sufficiently demand-driven research
programme and, furthermore, presents opportunities for data acquisition and knowledge dissemination
to the work area concerned.
The consortium intends to set up specific user groups for the different work packages consisting of
relevant stakeholders. User groups typically gather three times per research project within the work
package: at the start up where the research plan is commented, when there is some sight on interim
results (interim consultation) and in the end phase of the project. User groups add content value
due to the interaction between the Policy Research Centre‟s research and the practical working
environment. These user groups complement and not replace any new or existing channels and
forums for consultation. Suggested members of the user groups could be civil servants of the
Agencies and divisions within the Department of Mobility and Public Works, members of the Flemish
Forum for Traffic Safety, experts from the Mobility Council Flanders (MORA).
108
5.4 THE QUALITY-ASSURANCE SYSTEM (GENERAL MEASURES TO ENSURE
RESEARCH QUALITY)
In our view, five elements are important in achieving the quality of the research output.
1. Embedding in well-established existing research groups
In implementing the different work packages in the proposed Policy Research Centre, a great
deal of reliance will be placed on the knowledge and competences in the different participating
research groups. A description of the competences of the participating research groups is
given in section 2.2.1.
2. Interaction among the participating researchers
One of the motivating factors for the Flemish government in setting up the Policy Research
Centres for Policy-Relevant research was to counteract fragmentation (so-called research
islands). The interaction among the researchers within a Policy Research Centre offers
powerful possibilities for creating specialized research teams comprising members with
complementary competencies. The systematic exchange of research results through internal
consultations and presentations makes it possible to provide scientific feedback at an early
stage.
3. Review procedure for all research reports
The consortium will apply a review procedure for all research reports produced. Whenever
possible, external reviewers will be invited for this purpose. Relevant Dutch-speaking contacts
for this purpose exist with the Dutch SWOV, the Belgian Road Safety Institute, the Flemish
Foundation for Traffic Knowledge, road user groups and officials.
4. Publications in scientific journals
In the scientific community, publications in peer-reviewed international journals are the most
important output indicator. With that thought in the back of our minds, the consortium wants to
develop an active policy with respect to generating international publications. The consortium
is of the opinion that regular publication in scientific journals should be an important aim of the
Policy Research Centre because such publications act as a strong and internationally
accepted barometer for the content quality of the research. The aim is to publish 15
publications in peer-reviewed international scientific journals over the course of the following
Policy Research Centre.
5. Mid-term scientific review of the Policy Research Centres
In addition to the scientific feedback at micro-level on the basis of specific publications, it is
important to also review the research programme periodically. For that reason, the consortium
proposes an external evaluation at mid-term (spring 2014). The modalities of this evaluation
will be stated by the constituent. The Executive Committee will submit a proposal to the
Steering Committee. The timing is such that the results of the evaluation can be taken into
account when working out the annual programmes for the sub-theme areas. A written report of
the evaluations will be prepared and formally discussed in the Steering Committee..
109
6 OVERZICHT VAN DE LOGISTIEKE EN MATERIËLE INBRENG
(DUTCH)
In dit deel wordt een overzicht gegeven van de logistieke en materiële inbreng in het Steunpunt door
de leden van het consortium. Achtereenvolgens worden de huisvesting, de dienstverlening door de
verschillende entiteiten, de inbreng door het omkaderende personeel en de eigen logistieke en
materiële inbreng van de leden van het consortium besproken.
6.1 HUISVESTING VAN HET STEUNPUNT
Het Steunpuntsecretariaat wordt gehuisvest bij de Universiteit Hasselt - Instituut voor Mobiliteit in
gebouw 5 op het Wetenschapspark in Diepenbeek. Op deze werkplaats zullen de promotorcoördinator, de administratieve en financiële medewerkers en de communicatieverantwoordelijke
werkzaam zijn. De zetel van het Steunpunt zal als dusdanig naar de buitenwereld worden
gecommuniceerd via de verschillende communicatiemiddelen: drukwerken, website, nieuwsbrieven
etc. Het Steunpunt krijgt een eigen algemeen telefoonnummer dat tijdens de kantooruren steeds
bemand is (administratieve medewerker of via doorschakeling naar een aanwezig personeelslid).
Buiten de reguliere arbeidstijd wordt dit nummer doorgeschakeld naar een antwoordapparaat. De
inbreng van de drie instellingen die deel uitmaken van het consortium zal duidelijk gecommuniceerd
worden via de diverse communicatiekanalen (website, onderzoeksrapporten, presentaties etc.).
Het consortium opteert ervoor om de onderzoekers te huisvesten bij de onderzoeksgroep van
herkomst. Dit biedt het voordeel dat de aanwezige kennis bij de onderzoeksgroepen maximaal kan
benut worden en dat kan teruggevallen worden op de faciliteiten van de betrokken onthaalinstellingen
(personeelsdiensten, financiële diensten etc). Bovendien garandeert deze werkwijze voldoende
directe contacten tussen onderzoekers en de verantwoordelijke projectleiders. De onthaalinstellingen
blijven formeel verantwoordelijk voor bezoldiging, werktijdregeling, sociale dienstverlening,
personeelsstatuut e.d. van de betrokken onderzoekers.
Contacten tussen onderzoekers uit de verschillende onderzoeksgroepen verlopen via de
onderzoekersbijeenkomsten, interimvergaderingen in het kader van specifieke werkpakketten en
andere, ad hoc georganiseerde, activiteiten.
6.2 MATE WAARIN HET STEUNPUNT EEN BEROEP KAN DOEN OP
ALGEMENE DIENSTEN EN FACILITEITEN VAN DE DEELNEMENDE
ENTITEITEN
Alle onderzoekers van het Steunpunt genieten van de typische ondersteuning waarop elke
onderzoeker aan de betrokken onthaalinstellingen kan beroep doen: aangepaste huisvesting,
bureaumateriaal, hard- en software, klein kantoormateriaal, communicatiefaciliteiten (telefoon, fax, email/internet), bibliotheek, elektronische tijdschriftentoegang, afdruk- en kopieerfaciliteiten. Reeds
beschikbaar materiaal wordt kosteloos in het Steunpunt ingebracht. Enkel verbruiksgoederen,
hardware, software en klein kantoormateriaal kunnen worden vergoed via de werkingsmiddelen van
het Steunpunt. De onthaalinstellingen staan in voor een aangepaste huisvesting voor de betrokken
onderzoekers.
Voor de boekhouding van het Steunpunt wordt beroep gedaan op de financiële diensten van de
betrokken onthaalinstellingen. Deze inbreng gebeurt kosteloos. Voordeel is dat kan teruggevallen
worden op bestaande expertise en routines en dat geen bijkomend budget dient voorzien te worden
voor financiële planning en verslaggeving. De coördinatie van de financiering en de rapportering
110
gebeurt via het projectmanagement dat daartoe de nodige afspraken maakt met de opdrachtgever
enerzijds en de betrokken financiële diensten anderzijds. Op centraal niveau is hiertoe een beperkte
personeelsinzet voorzien.
Het Steunpunt kan tevens kosteloos beroep doen op vergaderruimtes, leslokalen en aula‟s met
bijhorende faciliteiten (beamers, smartboards, flip-charts etc …), IT-ondersteuning (aankoop, upgrade,
netwerk, helpdesk) via de informaticadiensten van de deelnemende instellingen en andere logistieke
diensten zoals de drukkerij (rapporten, posters,…), telefonie en onderhoud.
Aanwervingen en andere contractuele personeelsaangelegenheden
personeelsdiensten van de deelnemende instellingen.
verlopen
via
de
Indien dit nuttig zou blijken, kunnen andere voorzieningen die bij de betrokken onthaalinstellingen
aanwezig zijn worden ingezet ten bate van het Steunpunt. Daarbij geniet het Steunpunt dezelfde
voorwaarden die van toepassing zijn voor interne onderzoeksgroepen van de betrokken instelling.
6.3 MATE WAARIN LEDEN VAN HET OMKADEREND PERSONEEL TIJD
ZULLEN BESTEDEN AAN HET STEUNPUNT
De promotor-coördinator en de verschillende inhoudelijke werkpakketleiders zijn vaste
personeelsleden van de betrokken instellingen. Dit is eveneens het geval voor verschillende
projectleiders. De tijd die de betrokken werkpakketleiders en projectleiders zullen besteden aan het
Steunpunt is weergegeven in onderstaande tabel. Deze werktijd wordt niet vergoed met
Steunpuntmiddelen.
Naam
Functie
S. Daniels (UHasselt)
Promotor-coördinator
50%
T. Steenberghen (KU Leuven)
Werkpakketleider
10 %
E. Hermans (UHasselt)
Werkpakketleider
10%
K. Brijs (UHasselt)
Werkpakketleider
10%
T. Brijs (UHasselt)
Werkpakketleider
10%
E. Donders(UHasselt)
Werkpakketleider
10%
E. Jongen (UHasselt)
Projectleider
5%
S. Proost (KU Leuven)
Projectleider
5%
C. Tampère (KU Leuven)
Projectleider
5%
G. Wets (UHasselt)
Projectleider
5%
% tijd besteed
aan Steunpunt
111
6.4 EIGEN LOGISTIEKE EN MATERIËLE INBRENG VAN DE DEELNEMENDE
ENTITEITEN
UHasselt-IMOB
De Universiteit Hasselt-IMOB beschikt sinds 2008 over een rijsimulator die kosteloos wordt
ingebracht in de onderzoeksprojecten 4.1, 4.2 en 4.3. De rijsimulator omvat eveneens een systeem
voor de detectie van hoofd- en oogbewegingen (eye tracker) en fysio en biomechanische
monitoring. In 2009 werd een EEG systeem aangekocht t.b.v. non-intrusieve meting van
hersenactiviteit. Deze apparatuur maakt het mogelijk om diepgaand onderzoek uit te voeren naar het
rijgedrag van mensen. Dankzij de rijsimulator kunnen onderzoekers in een gecontroleerde
experimentele omgeving onderzoek doen naar de effecten van fysieke, mentale of visuele
beperkingen op het rijgedrag, of om de effecten van wegontwerp en omgeving op het rijgedrag te
onderzoeken.
UHasselt-IMOB beschikt eveneens over onderzoeksapparatuur voor de uitvoering van
snelheidsmetingen en verkeerstellingen (speedguns en een TIRTL-meetapparaat op basis van
infraroodtechnologie voor gecombineerde snelheids- en intensiteitsmetingen)
Bij alle betrokken onderzoeksgroepen kan eveneens worden beroep gedaan op ondersteunende inzet
van junior- en seniorpersoneel voor specifieke doeleinden: methodologische ondersteuning, software,
GIS, expertise met databanken. Tenzij expliciet vermeld in het meerjarenprogramma gebeurt deze
inzet kosteloos.
KUL-SADL
Voor de onderzoeksactiviteiten kan gebruik gemaakt worden van de bibliotheek van de KULeuven en
collectie van de promotoren, van het intern computernetwerk en de beschikbare software (voor zover
de licenties dit toelaten), en van de toegangsmogelijkheden waarover de KULeuven beschikt tot het
internet in het algemeen. Wat betreft ArcGIS wordt momenteel onderhandeld voor de aankoop van
een campuslicentie, inclusief een ARCGIS developer software seat licentie. Deze kan voor de
ontwikkeling van de monitor ingezet worden
SADL beschikt over webservers en database servers met voldoende capaciteit om de ontwikkeling
van een nieuwe monitor te starten. Er wordt wel verwacht dat de server capaciteit zal moeten
uitgebreid worden bij het einde van jaar 1.
Drie 3D video camera‟s met aangepast statief en projectiesysteem laten toe om 160° beelden op te
nemen en in 2D of 3D te projecteren.
SADL beschikt tevens over een TOBII T120 eye tracker en 2 mobile eye systemen met bijhorende
software voor de analyse van oogbewegingsregistratie.
Naast de eigen 10 GPS trackers van SADL kunnen binnen het Geo-Instituut allerlei meet– en
projectietoestellen (GPS toestellen, camera‟s, … ) geleend worden..
VITO
VITO beschikt over een voertuiglogging platform. Hierin maakt VITO gebruik van dataloggers, die
kunnen aangesloten worden op het elektronisch netwerk van een voertuig en die klein genoeg zijn om
weggeborgen te worden in bv. het handschoenkastje. De loggers stellen ons instaat om een aantal
eerder technische kenmerken op te volgen (SOC van de batterij, energieverbruik, …), maar ook een
aantal gedragsgerelateerde bestuurderskenmerken. Daartoe is de logger uitgerust met een GPSfunctionaliteit, die ons toelaat om het verplaatsingsgedrag van de bestuurder gedetailleerd op te
volgen. VITO voorziet niet enkel de hardware maar ook de software voor de verwerking en
interpretatie van de data (algorithmes, user interfaces, datavisualisatie). De data verzameling gebeurt
via een VITO server en de data kunnen geconsulteerd worden via een dedicated web-applicatie.De
bestuurders kunnen via een interactieve website een overzicht van hun trips raadplegen en via deze
website bevraagd worden. Dit wordt zoveel mogelijk geautomatiseerd om de last voor de bestuurders
112
tot een minimum te beperken. De back office voor het verwerken en interpreteren van data kunnen
voor voertuigdata en mobiele loggers gebruikt worden.
VITO brengt ook de instrumenten in voor de bevraging van fietsers die werd opgebouwd in het kader
van het SHAPES project (www.shapes-ssd.be). In dit project werd een web en e-mail gebaseerd
registratiesysteem gebruikt waarop fietsers werden ondervraagd naar hun verplaatsingen en hun
ervaringen met ongevallen. Het systeem was toegankelijk voor iedereen en wie de website bezocht
kon deelnemen aan het onderzoek indien er aan bepaalde criteria werd voldaan.
113
7 PLANNING AND BUDGET
7.1 TIMING AND ALLOCATION OF PERSONNEL ACROSS THE DIFFERENT
TASKS AND RESEARCHERS
Table 3 provides an overview of the project planning for the different work packages and projects
identified in the multi-year programme.
On the one hand, the table provides an overview of the project planning for the different work
packages and projects identified in the multi-year programme.
On the other hand, the table provides detailed information about the allocation of personnel and
involvement of the different project partners across the different parts of the multi-year research
programme down to the level of the different projects within each work package. The names of the
involved work package leaders, project leaders and researchers are indicated as far as they can be
set presently.
114
Table 3: Timing and allocation of personnel across the different tasks and researchers
2012
2013
2014
2015
WP1 DATA AND INDICATORS
1.1
1.2 Yearly report
50%
60%
60%
Researcher
2,5
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
50%
50%
50%
50%
Researcher
2
N.1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Elke Hermans1
75%
75%
75%
Researcher
3
Kurt Van Hout1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
1
N.1
75%
100%
p.m.
50%
Ph. D. student
p.m.
p.m.
Ph. D. student
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
100%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
Kristof Nevelsteen2
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN
RELATION TO SYSTEM
COMPONENTS VEHICLEENVIRONMENT
Parent-offspring socialization as
a lifelong learning strategy to
promote traffic safety:
opportunities & threats
50%
50%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
N.1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
50%
100%
Ph. D. student
1,5
N.1
p.m.
100%
Researcher
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
Ph. D. student
2
N.5
Ph. D. student
1
N.4
Project leader
0,5
Yves Deweerdt5
p.m.
100%
100%
25%
25%
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Co-Project leader
(promotor)
p.m.
Chris Tampère4
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Co-Project leader
(co-promotor)
p.m.
Davy Janssens1
Ph. D. student
2
N.1
Project leader
p.m.
Ellen Jongen1
100%
Ph. D. student
1
N.1
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD
SAFETY MEASURES
WP4
Simulator-based training for
young novice drivers to reach
higher level “Goals for Driver
Education (GDE)"
Assessing effects of signage at
4.2 road construction works on
distraction/road user behaviour
Ex-ante evaluation of the impact
4.3 of road infrastructure on traffic
safety
1
0,5 Tim De Ceunynck1
50%
100% 100%
Transition to electric bicycles:
3.3 what does it imply for traffic
safety?
Thérèse
Steenbergen2
WP3
Evaluating the effectiveness of
3.2 road safety measures using onsite behavioural observation
4.1
Thérèse
Steenberghen2
50%
2.3 Spatial approach to traffic safety
WP4
Diederik Tirry 2
60%
WP2
Analyzing road crash patterns
2.2
by using collision diagrams
3.1
Name
70%
WP2 RISK ANALYSIS
WP3
PY
WP1
A road safety monitor for
Flanders
2.1 Network safety management
Type
100%
100%
p.m.
p.m.
75%
p.m.
100%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
N.1
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
115
2012
2013
2014
2015
Type
PY
Name
100%
Ph. D. student
1
N.3
p.m.
Researcher
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stef Proost3
Ph. D. student
1
Ellen De Pauw 1
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
WP5
RANKING AND EVALUATION
OF MEASURES
WP5
Efficiency of road safety
5.1
enforcement
100% 100%
p.m.
100%
100%
Ph. D. student
2
Ellen De Pauw 1
100%
50%
Ph. D. student
1,5
N.4
20%
20%
40%
Researcher
0,5
Inge Mayeres5
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Chris Tampère4
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Co-Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
100%
100%
Impact of infrastructural road
5.3
safety measures on traffic safety
Measuring is knowing:
5.4 evaluating the effectiveness of
an educative insight program
6.2 Valorisaton
100%
100%
Researcher
1
A. Cuenen1
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Kris Brijs1
Science
communication
1
Patricia Hellriegel1
WP6
WP6 VALORISATION
6.1 Research dissemination
25%
25%
25%
25%
Edith Donders1
Nadine Smeyers1
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Researcher
p.m.
All
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
p.m.
Project leader
p.m.
Stijn Daniels1
WP7
WP7 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
7.1 Project administration
30%
30%
30%
30%
Admin
1,2
Nadine Smeyers1
7.2 Financial planning and reporting
20%
20%
20%
20%
Finance
0,8
André Jacobs1
p.m.
p.m.
Ph. D. student
50%
50%
Researcher
1
N.1
Researcher
1
Tim De Ceunynck1
7.3 Short term questions
50%
1
p.m.
p.m. Sandra Rousseau3
50%
116
7.2 BUDGETING OF THE EXPENDITURE OF THE ASSIGNED RESOURCES
The tables on the following pages show the allocation and distribution of the available budgets for the
life of the Policy Research Centre (2012-2015). Table 4 shows the global budget for every partner
totalised for the lifetime of the Policy Research Centre. The subsequent tables 5, 6, 7 and 8 clarify the
budget for each year separately during the period 2012-2015. The budget is split up in personnel
budget, operation budget (consumables, small equipment, IT, travel and subsistence etc) and
overhead costs.
With respect to the financing the consortium takes into account a yearly available budget of 587.500
EUR as mentioned in the administration agreement.
As it was prescribed by the governing the financial balance should not be zero for each year
separately, but for the project time as a whole. This means that the reserve for each year separately
can be slightly positive or negative, but is not likely to be zero. Nevertheless, the accumulated reserve
for the project as a whole is zero as the complete budget will be used at the end.
The general project costs (see upper left corner of the tables) consist of the personnel costs that are
provided for administration and finance, for the communication staff member and for answering the
short-term questions. Moreover these costs include general administration costs such as a particular
budget for construction and exploitation of the website, printing, lay-outing, the newsletter and the
organisation of conferences.
The yearly budgets in the tables below comply with the project planning and personnel allocation as
they are reflected in the tables 1 and 2 under the previous section 7.1.
The calculation of the personnel costs has been carried out according to the salary scales that are in
use in the participating entities. A distinction has been made between doctoral students, junior
researchers, senior researchers and administrative personnel. The applied salary scales are estimated
averages for the period 2012-2015 and take into account expected and foreseeable salary increases.
117
Table 4: Global budget for every partner totalised for the lifetime of the Policy Research Centre (2012-2015)
TOTAAL BUDGET
2012-2015
2.350.000,00
ALGEMENE WERKINGSMIDDELEN
VTE
Budget
Secretariaat & Financiën
2,00
103.400,00 €
Valorisatie & communicatie
1,00
54.000,00 €
KT-vragen
2,00
129.184,00 €
Alg. werking
64.470,00 €
Overhead
TOTAAL algemene kosten
Reserve
35.105,40 €
386.159,40 €
€ 0,00
UHasselt
IMOB
VTE
19,00
Personeel
922.656,00 €
Werking
170.818,18 €
VITO
KUL-SADL
KUL-ETE
KUL-CIB
TOTAAL
VTE
3,00
Personeel
189.840,00 €
Werking
51.000,00 €
VTE
4,50
Personeel
271.770,00 €
Werking
22.500,00 €
VTE
1,00
Personeel
40.320,00 €
Werking
5.000,00 €
VTE
2,50
Personeel
100.800,00 €
Werking
32.500,00 €
VTE
30,00
Personeel
€ 1.525.386,00
Werking
€ 281.818,18
Overhead
109.347,42 €
Overhead
0,00 €
Overhead
29.427,00 €
Overhead
4.532,00 €
Overhead
13.330,00 €
Overhead
€ 156.636,42
Totaal
1.202.821,60 €
Totaal
240.840,00 €
Totaal
323.697,00 €
Totaal
49.852,00 €
Totaal
146.630,00 €
Totaal
€ 1.963.840,60
118
Table 5: Budget for every partner (2012)
Jaarbudget
2012
587.500,00 €
VTE
0,50
25.850,00 €
0,25
13.500,00 €
KT-vragen
0,50
32.296,00 €
Alg. werking
Budget
16.000,00 €
Overhead
8.764,60 €
Reserve
96.410,60 €
69.545,86 €
UHasselt
IMOB
VTE
2,50
Personeel
137.535,00 €
Werking
18.900,00 €
Overhead
15.643,50 €
VITO
KUL-SADL
KUL-ETE
KUL-CIB
TOTAAL
VTE
0,60
Personeel
31.080,00 €
Werking
43.500,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
1,70
Personeel
93.836,40 €
Werking
8.500,00 €
Overhead
10.233,64 €
VTE
1,00
Personeel
40.320,00 €
Werking
5.000,00 €
Overhead
4.532,00 €
VTE
0,25
Personeel
10.080,00 €
Werking
1.250,00 €
Overhead
1.133,00 €
VTE
6,05
Personeel
€ 312.851,40
Werking
€ 77.150,00
Overhead
Totaal
172.078,50 €
Totaal
74.580,00 €
Totaal
112.570,04 €
Totaal
49.852,00 €
Totaal
12.463,00 €
119
€ 31.542,14
Totaal
€ 421.543,54
Jaarbudget
2013
€ 657.046
VTE
0,50
25.850,00 €
0,25
13.500,00 €
KT-vragen
0,50
32.296,00 €
Alg. werking
Budget
16.000,00 €
Overhead
8.764,60 €
Reserve
96.410,60 €
-76.439,56 €
UHasselt
IMOB
VTE
5,75
Personeel
268.575,00 €
Werking
85.200,00 €
Overhead
35.377,50 €
VITO
KUL-SADL
KUL-ETE
KUL-CIB
TOTAAL
VTE
1,45
Personeel
89.460,00 €
Werking
5.000,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
1,60
Personeel
86.191,20 €
Werking
8.000,00 €
Overhead
9.419,12 €
VTE
0,00
Personeel
0,00 €
Werking
0,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
1,00
Personeel
40.320,00 €
Werking
5.000,00 €
Overhead
4.532,00 €
VTE
9,80
Personeel
€ 484.546,20
Werking
€ 103.200,00
Overhead
Totaal
389.152,50 €
Totaal
94.460,00 €
Totaal
103.610,32 €
Totaal
0,00 €
Totaal
49.852,00 €
120
€ 49.328,62
Totaal
€ 637.074,82
Jaarbudget
2014
511.060,44 €
VTE
0,50
25.850,00 €
0,25
13.500,00 €
KT-vragen
0,50
Alg. werking
Budget
32.296,00 €
16.000,00 €
Overhead
8.764,60 €
Reserve
96.410,60 €
-104.504,98 €
UHasselt
IMOB
VTE
5,75
Personeel
268.575,00 €
Werking
35.250,00 €
Overhead
30.382,50 €
VITO
KUL-SADL
KUL-ETE
KUL-CIB
TOTAAL
VTE
0,95
Personeel
69.300,00 €
Werking
2.500,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
0,60
Personeel
45.871,20 €
Werking
3.000,00 €
Overhead
4.887,12 €
VTE
0,00
Personeel
0,00 €
Werking
0,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
0,75
Personeel
30.240,00 €
Werking
23.750,00 €
Overhead
5.399,00 €
VTE
8,05
Personeel
€ 413.986,20
Werking
€ 64.500,00
Overhead
Totaal
334.207,50 €
Totaal
71.800,00 €
Totaal
53.758,32 €
Totaal
0,00 €
Totaal
59.389,00 €
121
€ 40.668,62
Totaal
€ 519.154,82
Jaarbudget
2015
482.995,02 €
VTE
0,50
25.850,00 €
0,25
13.500,00 €
KT-vragen
0,50
Alg. werking
Budget
32.296,00 €
16.470,00 €
Overhead
8.811,60 €
Reserve
96.927,60 €
0,00 €
UHasselt
IMOB
VTE
5,00
Personeel
247.971,00 €
Werking
31.468,18 €
Overhead
27.943,92 €
VITO
KUL-SADL
KUL-ETE
KUL-CIB
TOTAAL
VTE
0,00
Personeel
0,00 €
Werking
0,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
0,60
Personeel
45.871,20 €
Werking
3.000,00 €
Overhead
4.887,12 €
VTE
0,00
Personeel
0,00 €
Werking
0,00 €
Overhead
0,00 €
VTE
0,50
Personeel
20.160,00 €
Werking
2.500,00 €
Overhead
2.266,00 €
VTE
6,10
Personeel
€ 314.002,20
Werking
€ 36.968,18
Overhead
Totaal
307.383,10 €
Totaal
0,00 €
Totaal
53.758,32 €
Totaal
0,00 €
Totaal
24.926,00 €
122
€ 35.097,04
Totaal
€ 386.067,42
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