Update Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO) Activities

LADCO
Update on Projects
and Activities
Rob Kaleel
Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium
Air Quality Advisory Committee Meeting
March 25, 2014
Regional Planning Organizations
LADCO – On-Going Projects
Develop 2011 Modeling Platform
Ozone
PM
Regional Haze
ERTAC EGU Model Development
Development of a
2011 Modeling
Platform
Ozone
Expected Implementation Timeline for
2008 Ozone NAAQS
Milestone
Date
Final NAAQS
2008
Final Designations
2012
Attainment SIPs Due
2015
Attainment Dates:
-Marginal Areas
2015
-Moderate Areas
2018
Nonattainment Areas for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
Tuscan Buttes
Sacramento
Sheboygan
Upper Green River
Basin
Chico
Jamestown
Allentown
Chicago
Calaveras Co
Mariposa Co
Denver
San Joaquin
Valley
San Luis Obispo
Pittsburgh
Uintah Basin
St. Louis
West Mojave
Cincinnati
Knoxville
Morongo Tribe
LA-South Coast
Charlotte
Riverside Co
Memphis
Pechanga Tribe
San Diego
Imperial Co
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas
Baton Rouge
Houston
Seaford DE
Washington Baltimore
DC/VA
E. Kern Co
Ventura Co
New York
Philadelphia
Columbus
San Francisco
Dukes MA
Reading
Lancaster
Cleveland
Nevada Co
Greater
Connecticut
Average Max. Temperature Departure from Mean, June-August
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2005
8-Hour Ozone Design Values
2011-2013
Northeast States’ 176A Petitions


On December 9, 2013, the Governors of 8
Northeastern States petitioned EPA for the
addition of 9 Midwestern and Southeastern
States to the Ozone Transport Region (OTR)
Inclusion in the OTR would require:
◦ Enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenance
programs in metropolitan areas with populations
greater than 100,000
◦ Statewide VOC RACT
◦ Statewide Stage II Vapor Recovery
◦ Statewide NAA New Source Review for VOC
◦ OTC consultation and regulatory process
States Potentially Affected by 176A Petitions
Particulate
Matter
Expected Implementation Timeline for
Revised PM2.5 NAAQS
Milestone
Date
Final Rule
December 2012
State NAA Designation
December 2013
Recommendation to EPA
Final Designations
December 2014
(Effective
2015)
Attainment Demonstration
2016
SIPs Due
(18 months from designations
Attainment Date
2020
becoming effective)
(5 years from designations
PM2.5 Design Values,2010-2012
2012 Annual NAAQS
PM2.5 Design Values,2011-2013
2012 Annual NAAQS
Regional Haze
Regional Haze
5-Year Progress Report

Elements
• Status of control strategies
• Emissions reductions from SIP strategies
• Visibility progress
• Emissions progress
• Assessment of recent changes with adverse impacts
• Assessment of current strategy
• Review of monitoring strategy
• Determination of adequacy
• Procedural Requirements: administrative process,
FLM consultation
Visibility Trend - Mingo
Visibility Trend – Buffalo Wilderness
Visibility Trend – Mammoth Cave
Coal EGU Annual Emissions (tons / year)
LADCO States
23
Development of the
ERTAC EGU Growth
Model
Origins and Goals of ERTAC EGU Group

EGU group convened in 2009
◦ Participants: States, MJOs, Industry reps.

Project goal: Build a low cost and
transparent alternative to EPA’s Integrated
Planning Model (IPM)

IPM issues:
◦ Proprietary model
◦ Shut downs, fuel switches, controls applied
based on modeled economic assumptions
25
How the Model Works

Starting point: CEM data by source and region
◦ Units processed from max to min generation hours

States provide information: new units, shut
downs, controls & other changes

Regional growth rates
◦ Base - Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual
Energy Outlook (AEO)
◦ Peak - North American Electric Reliability Corporation
(NERC)

Future hourly estimates based on
base year activity
26
EIA EMM(NEMS) Map – 2011, 2012, 2013
& Update to ERTAC Core Regions - 2013
Energy Information Administration (EIA)
2013 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)
Current and Future SO2 Emissions
from EGU’s - 2011 & 2018
Annual SO2 Emissions from EGU’s2011 & 2018
700000
SumOfBY Annual SO2 (tons)
SumOfFY Annual SO2 (tons)
600000
500000
2011 Annual SO2 (tons)
400000
2018 Annual SO2 (tons)
300000
200000
100000
0
IA
IL
IN
MI
MN
MO
OH
WI
Current and Future NOx Emissions
Annual NOx Emissions2011 & 2018
from EGU’s - 2011 & 2018
140000
SumOfBY Annual NOx (tons)
SumOfFY Annual NOx (tons)
120000
100000
80000
2011 Annual NOx (tons)
2018 Annual NOx (tons)
60000
40000
20000
0
IA
IL
IN
MI
MN
MO
OH
WI
Questions???