this PDF file - International Arctic Research Center

ARCTIC MARINE BIOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY WORKSHOP
University of Alaska, Fairbanks 22-24 February, 2011
International Arctic Research Center,
Pew Foundation & CNSM Sidney Chapman Chair
Henry P Huntington, Eddy Carmack, Larry Hinzman, Jackie Grebmeier John Walsh,
Rolf Gradinger, Georgina Gibson, Meibing Jin, Terry Whitledge,
Paul Wassmann, Clara Deal, Cary Rea, Jody Deming, Sei-Ichi Saitoh,
Connie Lovejoy, Bill Li, Katya Popova, Marit Reigstad, Jean-Eric Tremblay,
Sang H Lee, Kohei Mizobata, Naomi Harada, Bill Williams, Harald Loeng,
Bill Streever, Eva Leu, Sue Moore, Jia Wang, Dean Stockwell, Shige Nishino,
Takashi Kikuchi, Keitaro Matsumoto, Kattsuhito Shimmoyo
WORKSHOP KEY QUESTIONS
How will Arctic marine ecosystems respond to
warming climate and decreasing sea ice?
What are the critical needs and new directions to
improve our understanding and predictive
capability of arctic marine biological systems?
Why Worry?
For the first time in human
history, a new ocean is opening
to us. The progressive loss of
the sea ice cover over the Arctic
Ocean gives an unprecedented
opportunity to explore an ocean
changing before our eyes.
The effective management of
emerging Arctic Ocean
ecosystem services to the
Northern hemisphere and beyond
depends on the success of our
ability to discover, model and
project the immediate future of
life in this new ocean.
Main Concerns
Under Climate
Change Scenarios:
Ice Cover extent & thickness
Underwater light (PAR)
Stratification (S & T changes)
Upwelling
Mixing (summer and fall)
Currents
Fronts and barriers
Acidification
We must learn the
relative importance
of:
• Microbial Processes
• Sea ice algae production
• Ice Edge blooms
• The Chl-maximum layer
• Pelagic-Benthic Coupling
• Vertical C-Flux
An Ecology of
Advection is Required
The Arctic is fully coupled to
the Atlantic & Pacific Oceans
This Entanglement must be
Taken into account.
Boundary currents follow the
shelf-basin margin % ridges
Historically, the Arctic Ocean
Has been considered to be
Net heterotrophic; this may
Change (???)
A PANARCTIC
PERSPECTIVE
IS REQUIRED!
The basic Primary
Production narrative:
Consider the three
shelf types, the two
basins & the ridges
3 Shelf Types:
With essential
differences in
biogeochemical
cycling and net
productivity
The Two Main Basins
Are Fundamentally
Different and must
Studied accordingly
The Canadian Basin holds
Much more freshwater, is
More strongly stratified, &
Is freshening faster than
The Eurasian Basin’
Comparative Studies of
Primary productivity are
Required and will provide
Novel insight of change.
Ridges are Sites
Of enhanced
Circulation &
Vertical Mixing
Vertical Diffusion
due to tides over
topography
Ice retreat over ridges
And areas of enhanced
Fluxes of nitrate may
create local regions of
Increased productivity
Harper Simmons, Pers. Comm.
Multi-scale and cross
Regional studies are
Necessary
For example, consider 4
Regions and ask, “will sea
Ice reduction will increase
or decrease productivity?”
The Answer is – of course –
Both
Increased Upwelling
Increased Nutrients
PP goes up
Increased Stratification
Reduced Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Longer Growing Season
Light Increases
PP Goes Up
Increased Runoff
Decreased Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Increased Upwelling
Increased Nutrients
PP goes up
Increased Stratification
Reduced Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Longer Growing Season
Light Increases
PP Goes Up
Increased Runoff
Decreased Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Increased Upwelling
Increased Nutrients
PP goes up
Increased Stratification
Reduced Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Longer Growing Season
Light Increases
PP Goes Up
Increased Runoff
Decreased Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Increased Upwelling
Increased Nutrients
PP goes up
Increased Stratification
Reduced Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Longer Growing Season
Light Increases
PP Goes Up
Increased Runoff
Decreased Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Increased Upwelling
Increased Nutrients
PP goes up
Increased Stratification
Reduced Nutrients
PP Goes Down
Longer Growing Season
Light Increases
PP Goes Up
Increased Runoff
Decreased Nutrients
PP Goes Down
The “future research sandwich”
• A primary production “narrative” for the 3
shelf types, the 2 basins and the ridges
• Improvement of integrative tools such as
models and remote sensing.
• Further support of essential time series.
• Experimental cross-scale studies of
biological rates and processes.
• Microbial cycling, respiration and nutrient
investigations.
Conclusion
Climate warming and sea ice retreat are moving
the Arctic system towards a new state, with both
known and unknown consequences that will have
regional and global ecosystem implications, including
changes to the lower and higher trophic processes.
A coordinated, multi-national,
Panarctic research effort is required
THANK YOU