Transnational Organized Crime (TOC)

Transcription

Transnational Organized Crime (TOC):
A Perspective from the Intelligence Community
1
This briefing is intended to stimulate discussion
about the national security implications of the
threat posed by Transnational Organized Crime.
It does not reflect a coordinated position of
either the United States Government or the
Intelligence Community
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL
2
International Concerns about TOC Not New
“… An increasingly and undeniably global problem…
…internationalization of criminal activities…Organized criminal groups are,
among other things:
• taking advantage of weaknesses in national regulatory schemes;
• resorting to flexible and rapid transfers and movement of assets across
national boundaries;
• exploiting the diversity of business regulations within and between
national systems… concealing the origin of funds, ownership and control;
… Demonstrating the global nature of the phenomenon”
UN Conference Results June 1994
3
July 2011:Increasing the Focus on TOC
“A shift in U.S. Intelligence collection
priorities since September 11, 2001
attacks left significant gaps in TOCrelated Intelligence…
… Meanwhile, the TOC threat has
worsened and grown over the past 15
years.”
3
Mafia States: Organized Crime Takes Office
“…The analytic frameworks that
governments are currently applying to the
problem are primitive, based on outdated
understandings about organized crime.”
Moises Naim
Gangster’s Paradise: The Untold History of
the United States and International Crime
“… cross border crime not new…panicked
discourse and frenzied law enforcement
policies that define Washington’s current
approach are an alarmist overreaction”
Peter Andreas
OVERVIEW
• Context – why Transnational
Organized Crime is unique
• Glimpses of the Problem
• Understanding TOC through
the prism of globalization
– How TOC-related problems
play themselves out
• How will we know if we’re
making progress?
• Conclusions
5
The Uniqueness of TOC
• Broad national security threats…
• …Exacerbated by illicit
TOC activities…
$
• … That all come
down to money
Tactical and Strategic
Implications
6
Tactical Challenge: Whac-a-Mole
• TOC motivation: money
to be made
• Taking bad people off
the street is great…
• … but there will always
be someone else to
replace them.
• Demand will ensure
supply
7
Strategic Challenge: “Balloon Effect”
• And if sustained pressure
finally takes its toll on the
“moles”…
• .. The entire enterprise
simply moves somewhere
less inhospitable:
• Profit motive at work
–
–
–
Often cited for drugs
Equally true for other illicit items
being trafficked
Applicable to money laundering
• Demand and supply at work
8
Open Source Reflections of the TOC Problem
(illustrative only… NGO/think tank/gov’t/press sources… data often uncorroborated)
What does the
Globalization of
TOC look like?
9
Open Source Reflections of the TOC Problem (con’t)
Drug Cartels
• 50-70K people killed in
drug violence
• Sinaloa expanding
presence around globe
10
Drugs
• “El Chapo” Guzman, “Public
Enemy #1” in Chicago
• Mexican DTOs operate in
1286 U.S. cities/towns
11
Illicit Cargo Transport
• Growing use of container
ships for drugs
• Hide in global commerce
12
Fake Pharmaceuticals
• WHO: $430 Billion
• 30-50% of the market in
parts of the world
• Hundreds of thousands of
deaths
13
Cybercrime:
• 200 Billion spam
messages/day
• 46 malicious codes
developed/second
14
Intellectual Property Theft
• China based entities
acquiring trade secrets from
US corporations
• Loss estimates in the
$Billions
15
Syndicate Operations
• Crime considered a “national
emergency” in Italy and MAFIA
the #1 bank
• A TOC-related “bourgeoisie of
lawyers, notaries, accountants
and entrepreneurs”
16
IIlegal Gambling
• Singapore based
syndicate tied to
fixing 680 soccer
matches globally
17
Criminal Facilitation of Terror
•US Terror suspect acquires
Belize birth certificate, passport,
and drivers license… used for
travel to Mexico
18
Trafficking in Persons
• Indian NGO: 90,000
children reported missing
last year
• Up to 10X that number
allegedly trafficked
19
Environmental:
• Illegal logging
• Dumping pollutants,
exploiting energy subsidies
• Animal trafficking
20
Enabled by:
Petty Corruption
• 90% of Kenyans
view their Country
as “corrupt or
extremely corrupt”
21
Enabled by
Corruption: Illicit Money Flows
• $50 Billion illegally sent abroad
from Russia in 2012
• GFI: > $750 Billion of
inflow/outflow over 18 years
22
Enabled by:
Porosity of Borders
• Nigeria has 84 official
border crossing sites…
• … 1500+ illegal ones
23
Changing Threat
Perceptions
54% of Brazilians view
Organized Crime as the
#1 security threat
24
In the Shoes of a TOC Analyst
Assuming these
glimpses are
illustrative, what
are the
implications for
the Intelligence
Community?
• First the big picture: TOC as a downside of
globalization…
• … Then the practical issues:
– Diminished relevance of borders (money
laundering)
– “Cesspool” aspect (Illicit TOC activities are
rarely discrete problems)
– A data intensive/granular problem (movement
of people)
– A nuanced issue that defies bumper stickers
(“convergence” of crime and terror)
– Information sharing challenges
• And finally… how do we assess “progress”?
25
Priorities and Departmental
Prerogatives
TOC as a
Downside of
Globalization
“Cylinders of Excellence”
Post 9/11 TOC
lower priority
Governmental
Framework
Info
Domestic
Info
Information
Overload
Complex
Problems
Econ
Foreign
Info
• Press
• Academia
• Think Tank
Tactical may
equal strategic
Individual bad
actors
empowered
Political
Functional
TOC
Threats
Low barriers
to entry
26
Global Challenge
•
Money
diverted
to Hizb
support
Money laundering straddles the
foreign/domestic divide
–
•
•
Illicit can hide in massive licit
flows of money
Beyond trade based schemes…
even more sophisticated
techniques…
–
•
•
Lebanese Canadian Bank an
illustrative success story
Use of Online payment systems
…Techniques limited by the
launderers’ imagination.
… International enforcement
varies
27
TOC in Context: The Complexity Challenge
Illicit Activities Rarely Single Threaded
TOC in West Africa
corruption
narcotics
arms trafficking
cigarette smuggling
money laundering
kidnapping/TIP
“Transnational organized crime poses a
direct security threat to peace and stability
in West Africa…”
ethno sectarian
violence
terrorism
West Africa Commission on Drugs
A Huge Integration Challenge
28
Data Granularity Issues:
The Challenge of Tracking People
DI Design Center/MPG 463961ID/900786AI/900787AI/900788AI 7-12
29
Over the Course
of 1-2 Months…
• Countless smugglers,
some ad hoc…. some
networked together…
• All conveyances
• Eventually arriving at San
Ysidro or other Port of Entry
to the U.S.
• May cross 10+
international borders
• rarely possessing legitimate
Smuggling/Trafficking of People
(continued)
documents…
• … often no documents
• Benign… or otherwise
• Goes on all over the world
DI Design Center/MPG 463961ID/900789AI 7-12
30
Importance of Nuance: Terror/Crime “Convergence”
Terrorists using
Crime
Funding Stream:
• In support of specific
operations
• More systematic
Facilitation/logistics
Criminals using
Terrorism
Arrangements of Convenience
Shabaab/Pirates
Intimidation:
• DTO beheadings
Fellow Travelers
ASG…AQIM…Hizballah
Arbabsiar…
“Convergence” bumper sticker could suggest a single narrative that may
not adequately/accurately depict what’s going on.
31
Information Access/Sharing Challenges
(to connect TOC “dots”)
Private Sector
Dots
NOFORN
Dots
Legal
Dots
Open Source
Dots
Operational
Dots
Privacy
Dots
Classified
But
releasable
Dots
• As a global problem
TOC has no regard
for foreign, domestic
distinctions…
• … and information
sharing practices
haven’t kept pace
with that reality
• What is the “good
government”
solution?
32
Metrics: How to Assess Progress?
Lots of
Very Big,
Very
Squishy
numbers
TIP: 20-27
million people
trafficked
Drug Trade
exceeds
$350…$500
Billion annually
Cybercrime
costs a trillion
dollars
annually
Laundered money:
$800 million to $2.2
trillion… or $1.3 to
$3.3 trillion
annually
33
• 2009: Indian Home Minister
claims 100 million people
Trafficking in Persons
• Definitional and data
issues involved
• India a source, transit,
destination country
21-27 Million Individuals
Trafficked Worldwide
• 450K cases reported,
3394 convictions
ROW
India
18-22 Million
“International Labor Standards:
Quality of Information and
Measures of Combating Forced
Labor”
Kevin Bales 2004
•
•
•
•
5000-7000
Nepalese girls
age 10-14
“Baby Falak”
177,600
children
reported
missing
in 2 years
22,410 girls/
women
missing in
Karnataka past
3 years
24 school girls in
Araria kidnapped
Children/women
to Middle East
Undoubtedly a huge number in India/internationally
Definitional issues, non standard data, low quality
data, lack of data… all plague TIP estimates
• ILO, others working to refine estimates
True across the TOC arena
Meaningful metrics to assess trends and measure
progress will be a significant challenge going forward
34
Conclusions
• TOC is an age-old problem… with a 21st century spin
• Attributes of globalization enable increased agility for
TOC actors
– Cross jurisdictional challenges
– Partnerships required between/among the private sector, governments,
international institutions
• Generally a law enforcement lead…
• … But guiding principles for intelligence support:
–
–
–
–
Focus on highest priority threats
Promote information sharing
Accurately characterize the whac-a-mole and balloon effect phenomena
Help develop meaningful metrics
35
QUESTIONS?
[email protected]
36

Transnational Organized Crime (TOC)

Transcription

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