The Weather and Climate Authority

CLIMATE REVIEW
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 24, 2016
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
25 October 2016
CONTENTS
Recent ENSO Condition
Weather systems that affected the country
Climate Assessment - Rainfall and
Temperature (Sept. –Oct. 18, 2016)
Niño Region SST Departures
(oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño
Niño
Niño
Niño
4
3.4
3
1+2
Source: CPC/NCEP
-0.2ºC
-0.6ºC
-0.6ºC
-0.2ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the
Last Four Weeks
Oceanic Niño Index
for JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER = -0.5°C
Source: CPC/NCEP
SST EVOLUTION in the past 2 months
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_2mp.html
WEATHER SYSTEMS
(September – October 24, 2016)
•
•
•
•
Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
Southwest monsoon
Thunderstorms
Inter tropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ)
• Monsoon Trough
• Tropical Cyclones
 SEPTEMBER (4 TCs)
 OCTOBER (4 TCs)
SEPTEMBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Severe Tropical Storm “Enteng” (Sept. 1, 2016)
24-Hr RR Sept. 1, 2016
Basco, Batanes : 123.8 mm
Normal RR : 350.8 mm
SEPTEMBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Typhoon “Ferdie” (Sept.11 – 14, 2016)
Landfall:
Itbayat, Batanes
350
300
250
mm
200
150
100
50
0
Recorded 24-Hr Rainfall on Sept.13
Stations
CALAYAN
BASCO
VIGAN
LAOAG CITY
MMSU, BATAC
24-hr Rainfall (mm)
182.8
268.9
102.4
102.6
147.8
Estimated Cost of
Damages:
NGAs facilities –
188,753,980.00
Provincial Gov’t.
facilities –
56,048,336.00
Damage Houses:
2,238 Houses
Affected
individuals: 16,648
persons
Source: NDRRMC
SitRep #9
SEPTEMBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Typhoon “Gener” (Sept.14 – 17, 2016)
Signal No. 1 : Batanes Group
of Islands
mm
Accumulated Rainfall (mm) on Sep.14-17
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
PAGASA Basco, Batanes Radar
Damages caused by Typhoon Ferdie in the Province of Batanes
Source: Bayan mo, Ipatrol mo
SEPTEMBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Typhoon “HELEN” (Sept.24 – 28, 2016)
mb.com.ph
ucanews.com.ph
Enhancement of Southwest Monsoon brought floods
in provinces along the northern & western section of
the country
356 families in Bulacan & 2 families in Batanes were
evacuated (SitRep#05, NDRRMC)
Actual Rainfall for September 2016
Normal RR(mm)
(1981-2010)
Observed (mm)
Actual Rainfall
% Normal
OCTOBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Typhoon “IGME”
(OCT. 1-3)
Tropical Storm “JULIAN”
(OCT. 4-6)
Actual Rainfall for October 1-6, 2016
Observed (mm)
OCTOBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Typhoon “KAREN” (OCT. 12-16)
Oct. 14 : 406.5 mm
Normal: 393.7 mm
Landfall:
Aurora Province, Oct. 16
Estimated Cost of Damages:
Php 741.4 million
Affected
families: 32,871
persons: 149,634
Source: NDRRMC, SitRep #6
OCTOBER 2016 TC & Associated Rainfall
Super Typhoon “LAWIN” (OCT. 17-21)
Landfall:
Peñablanca, Oct. 19 at 11PM
Damages
• Agriculture – Php 943 .8 M
• Infrastructure – Php 1.58 B
• Houses – 46,257 (14.2% Total)
• Casualty: 8 dead, 1 injured
Affected
families: 33,183
persons: 158,363
Source: NDRRMC, SitRep #7, Oct. 24
185 Tropical Cyclones
163 Typhoon & Tropical Storm
Historical Tracks of
Tropical Cyclones
in OCTOBER
(1948-2015)
32 Tropical Cyclones
28 Typhoon & Tropical Storm
10 Tropical Cyclones
“LAWIN”
2016
1998
Super Typhoon LAWIN (Oct. 17-21) Typhoon ILIANG (Oct. 11-16)
• Max. Wind: 225 kph
• Max. Wind: 240 kph
• Min. Pressure: 922 hPa
• Min. Pressure: 968.3 hPa
• 24-hr RR: BSU – 507.0 mm (Oct. • 24-hr RRR: Tug – 220 mm
19)
(Oct. 14)
1974
Typhoon Susang (Oct. 8-12)
• Max. Wind: 231 kph
• Min. Pressure: 978.8 hPa
• 24-hr RRR: Baguio – 781
mm (Oct. 11)
Actual Rainfall for October 1-23,2016
Normal RR(mm)
(1981-2010)
Observed (mm)
Actual Rainfall
% Normal
Mean Temperature (September 2016)
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
• 0.56°C higher than the average temperature for 1981-2010
• 0.11°C higher than the previous highest value in Sept. 2015
Source: climate.copernicus.eu, 2016
Summary
• Cool ENSO-neutral condition is present in the tropical
Pacific;
• Rainfall condition:
– September: generally near to above normal rainfall in
Mindanao and Visayas, and below to near normal in
Luzon
– October : generally near to above normal rainfall in
Luzon and below normal rainfall in Panay, central
Mindanao, and Samar Island
• Slightly warmer than average temperature in Sept. 2016
• 12 tropical cyclones had entered the PAR as of Oct. 24,
2016.
The Weather and Climate Authority
MARAMING
SALAMAT!