Railtown District Sustainable Neighbourhood

Transcription

Railtown District Sustainable Neighbourhood
RAILTOWN DISTRICT
SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD CONCEPTUAL MASTER PLAN
WORKSHOP BACKGROUNDER
Draft December 1, 2015
PREPARED BY MODUS PLANNING, DESIGN & ENGAGEMENT INC. FOR THE CITY OF NELSON
Contents
Purpose + Background Overview 4
Process Overview
6
Background Policy + Framework 7
Planning Framework
Site Conditions
9
10
Photo Essay 10
Market Overview: Summary of Findings 12
Precedents, Case Studies + Photo Essays 13
Appendix31
Inventory + Analysis Diagram
3
33
Image: Rendering Showing Potential Build-out of Waterfront
Central and West. City of Nelson Sustainable Waterfront
Downtown Master Plan
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Market Memo
32
Purpose + Background Overview
Overview
The City of Nelson is developing a Sustainable Neighbourhood Plan
for the Railtown District, with a clear framework for implementation. This plan will refine the vision for the neighbourhood that was
outlined in the Sustainable Waterfront and Downtown Master Plan
(SWDMP) and include specific projects, partnerships, programs,
funding sources along with policies, timelines and responsibilities
for action. This more detailed and implementation-focused stage
of planning for the Railtown Neighbourhood will occur through a 3
phase process and include community and stakeholder engagement,
and close collaboration with City staff to ensure the plan both honours and implements the vision established by the SWDMP process.
Aerial View: Showing 0.5m contour lines and cadastre boundaries
within and directly adjacent to the site boundary
Neighbourhood Snapshot
The Railtown District is an important and special part of the City, bordering
both the downtown core and the waterfront and home to many historically
significant landmarks. The vision for Railtown is to emphasize the neighbourhoods’ distinct character while creating better connections with adjacent neighbourhoods, and helping the City to realize established sustainability goals. New life and vitality in the neighbourhood will celebrate and
contribute to the historical context and character. Indeed, seeding for this
new life has already begun--when the Chamber of Commerce moves into
its new home in the restored CPR station at the end of this year, the neighbourhood and this historic landmark will take on additional significance and
meaning for the City.
The Power of Neighbourhoods
Downtown Nelson and Railtown are built on the sedimentary lands that were
shaped by Cottonwood Creek. Image: GeoTour Guide for the West Kootenay,
BC, Geological Survey of Canada (Railtown location identified by Modus).
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Neighbourhoods are large enough to enable a wide range of sustainable
development strategies, and small enough to understand, plan and take
action. As such, the neighbourhood is an ideal scale to implement sustainability principles in the context of local environmental and socio-economic
opportunities and constraints as well as local and regional market and financial realities. Fortunately, Railtown contains many of the ingredients that
are necessary to sustain and provide a balanced approach to development:
culture and history, business and innovation, and rich natural and human
context. The Sustainable Neighbourhood Plan will help to further reveal and
realize the tremendous potential that the Railtown neighbourhood, and by
extension other neighbourhoods in Nelson, have in realizing city-wide and
regional sustainability goals.
A Focused Vision
With some of the highest business licenses per capita in the province, along
with growing tourism, arts and cultural sectors, Nelson is well positioned
to manage growth and guide neighbourhood renewal in a practical manner rooted in market forces and in the context of the successful, diverse
and therefore resilient local business climate. Specifically, Railtown district
provides the opportunity to support anticipated market demands for new
jobs, better physical and visual connections to the downtown and adjacent
neighbourhoods, to provide additional civic space, brownfield and ecological restoration, and additional mixed-use and innovative live-work residential/ commercial opportunities. Turning the vision into action will require
identification and prioritization of strategic public investments together
with policies and guidelines to encourage and shape private development.
Collaboration with stakeholders at key stages of the process will ensure
projects, programs, policies and actions identified for the Railtown Neighbourhood respond to the unique opportunities, challenges and aspirations
of the community.
Process Overview
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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Sustainable Neighbourhood Conceptual Master Plan
A masterplan and recommendation development for The Railtown District
involves a highly collaborative and integrated process with three phases.
In each of these phases, Modus will work with the City and Stakeholders
to identify key issues and opportunities, co-create, evolve and test design
options, leading to a preferred neighbourhood plan concept detailing
actions, policies, partnerships and priorities for implementation. The
process includes review and synthesis of relevant technical information,
along with confirmation of the neighbourhood vision and goals in phase 1.
A 2 day integrated and collaborative design workshop (charrette) in
phase 2 is the key event in the process, and will result in development
and evaluation of alternative neighbourhood concepts. Phase 3 involves
selection and refinement of the preferred concept, including detailing
policy, design and implementation components of the plan.
A Project web page will be set up on the City’s Web Site and will include
regular project updates, notifications, deliverables, and questionnaires/
feedback forms (as appropriate) at key stages of the project.
Process Diagram
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
Background/
technical analysis,
vision + goals
Concept
development +
community open
house
Concept
refinement, plan
development +
recommendations
WINTER 2015
Technical Team
Meeting
Charrette Design
Brief
Charrette
Stakeholder
Workshop #3
Stakeholder Workshop
#2
Community Open
House #1
Technical Team
Meeting
Concept Options
Report
Technical Team
Meeting
Community Open
House #2
Railtown District
Conceptual
Master Plan +
Recommendations
Background Policy + Framework
PLANS AND STRATEGIES THAT INFORM THE PROCESS:
• Nelson’s Path to 2040 - Sustainability Strategy - 2010
• Sustainable Waterfront and Downtown Master Plan - 2011
• Low Carbon Path to 2040 - Community Energy and Emissions Action Plan
-2011
• Active Transportation Plan – 2010
• Nelson Affordable Housing Strategy - 2010
• The City of Nelson Official Community Plan- 2012
• Heritage Register Update - 2011
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Stakeholder
Workshop #1
SPRING 2016
Healthy Neighbourhood
Nelson’s Path to 2040 - Sustainability Strategy (2010) outlines principles
and objectives of healthy neighbourhoods. These are of particular
relevance to the Railtown District.
Guiding Principle
Healthy Neighbourhoods are safe, welcoming, connected places with
meaningful opportunities to interact with neighbours of all ages and income
levels.
Healthy Neighbourhoods have:
• Inviting parks, community gardens and informal public spaces for
gathering;
• Diverse and affordable housing opportunities in all neighbourhoods;
• Development focused in specific, pre-identified mixed use areas;
• Connected residential areas via safe, enjoyable walking and cycling
corridors and greenways; and,
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• Buildings that are sustainable in design and operation; they incorporate
green building practices and technologies when renovating existing and
constructing new buildings.
Healthy Neighbourhood Objectives
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
• ACH2: Preserve and celebrate heritage
• ECC2: Reduce energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions
• ECC4: Anticipate and plan to adapt to climate changes
• FFSA1: Ensure nutritious whole food
• FFSA3: Encourage individual and commercial food production, processing,
and distribution within city limits
• FFSA4: Build community capacity and foster ethical food consumption
• HLSW2: Foster an inclusive and respectful community
• HLSW3: Ensure public safety
• HLSW4: Maximize intergenerational connections
• HLSW6: Support socially just economic development
• LU1: Ensure bylaws support sustainability
• LU2: Promote affordable mixed use housing
• LU3: Ensure convenient access to daily needs
• LU5: Focus new growth in the downtown and waterfront
• NARL3: Establish a distributed, restored natural areas network
• NARL6: Accessible waterfront recreation areas.
• SW3: Enhance composting
• TM1: Support human powered transportation
• TM3: Improve cycling amenities
• W4: Manage stormwater onsite
Planning Framework
The following represents a synthesis of principles, goals and objectives
from previous plans and studies as relevant to the Railtown Neighbourhood.
Synthesis of Principles
• Healthy vibrant and walkable neighbourhoods that foster togetherness,
collective joy and celebration
• Prosperity to foster a diverse, value-added economy that provides good
jobs close to home and amenities
• Cultural Strength – to celebrate and embrace our rich heritage, diversity
and thriving arts scene
• Robust Ecosystems through protection, enhancement, restoration,
and connectivity of natural systems and habitats within Railtown, the
downtown, the waterfront and throughout the community
• A connected multi-modal community to link the downtown, the
waterfront , Railtown and the community as a whole
• Infill, Intensification and adaptive re-use: to create a diversity of unique
neighborhoods each with a vibrant mix of jobs, housing and other
compatible uses
• A public waterfront including parks and a continuous trail system
• Green energy and infrastructure for a low carbon and ecologically based
neighbourhoods and communities
• A higly liveable and amenity rich community where people really like to
live, work, learn and play
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
• Resiliency to maintain and enhance the economic, social, ecological, and
cultural systems that make Nelson great and strengthen our ability to
withstand future challenges.
Site Conditions
Railtown in Images
Photo Essay
(Above) CP Rail
Station - (1900).
After recent
renovations this has
become the new
home of the Chamber
of Commerce. Image
Bill Metcalfe.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
10
(Left) Cottonwood
Market.
(Left + Above) Coke and
Gasworks Heritage Building
(1900). Granite masonry
constructed from locally
sourced materials. Now
home to The Art of Brewing.
(Below) Cottonwood Bridge:
City of Nelson Art and
Infrastructure Program, work
by Brent Bukowski. Images:
Brent Bukowski http://www.
brentbukowski.ca/
Improve pedestrian / cyclist connection under Hig
The underpass which facilitates multi-user crossing of Hi
waterfront and Rosemont is decrepit, according to City p
that the underpass is unsafe, which is not uncommon
vulnerable in situations where they could be trapped i
CPTED (Crime Prevention Through Environmental De
(Below) The
underpass
is the
determine
low-cost
mitigative
measures to improve the s
pedestrian
connection
to
this underpass. Measures typically include improveme
neighbourhoods
of Railtown.
tunnel
by provision south
of adequate
lighting, maintenance (
This
route
is
also
marked
improvement of aesthetics. by a series
of stairs, and sloping sidewalks.
Image: City of Nelson, Active Transportation Plan.
Figure 13 - Underpass under Highway 3 in Nelson
Fig
(Above) CPR District Superintendent’s House (1908). This heritage
building was designed by Alexander Carrie, who was a prominant
desighner for many of Nelson’s important residences.1 It is
situated in a prominate location, next to the entry of our site over
Cottonwood Bridge. 1 City of Nelson Heritage Regiser Update, 2011. Image: waymaking.com
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There may also be a lack of education as to the existen
therefore, the link should be clearly indicated on Activ
signage.
Develop Perrier Road into a multi-user path
Based on stakeholder consultation, Nelson residents in
(Left) Cottonwood
like Perrier Road to be developed into a route with sidew
Falls Park.
any upgrades to thisImage
roadway.
The distance along the p
by Darrell Noakes.
Cottonwood Road (situated just outside of the muni
kilometres and would not serve to remedy a missing c
Road / Vancouver Street. Nelson City planners indicate
walking along Ymir Road, it still is utilized as a corrid
modes, and as development occurs, the potential for
possibility of injury or fatality, either the highway shou
users, or an alternative route that is convenient and safe
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Currently, there are initiative to
enhance the ecological value
of the creek,1 and the park
site is host to the Cottonwood
Market.
1. City of Nelson, Heritage Register Update, 2011
2. West Kootaney Geo-Tour
Source: Opus International Consultants, Ltd.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
(Below, Right) Cottonwood
Creek has continually
supported the settlement
of Nelson.1 Geologically
speaking, the creek shaped
our site and the City of Nelson.
Downtown Nelson is built on a
slope of sand and gravel that
were deposited by ancient
Cottonwood Creek. 2 Culturally,
it has held diverse and key
roles in human history. It
supported traditions of the
First Nations peoples, it was
the first location of the Chinese
Market Gardens, and it was
key to the settlement and
development of Nelson1 by it
supporting early industries.
Market Overview: Summary of Findings
A market overview and financial analysis are being conducted as a part
of the Sustainable Neighbourhood Conceptual Masterplan. The market
overview, completed by J.P. Raulout-Lapointe, has been included in the
appendix in full. Below is the summary of conclusions.
The major findings from the preliminary market analysis to support the
revisioning of the Railtown neighbourhood include:
• Population forecasts suggested in the Colliers report from 2011 are
overly optimistic. This will influence demand from all different types of
land use, not only residential.
• Residential demand is expected to average between 81 and 95 annually
over the next 10 years. At that growth rate, if Railtown can attract 20% of
projected multi-family development, it could have 80 units in 10 years.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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• Railtown could absorb up to 20,000 square feet of retail space without
negatively impacting the downtown. Railtown would be an excellent
location for service commercial retail where businesses might require
extra storage, assembly, or office space beyond pure retail space. Other
types of retailers that could be suited to Railtown include restaurants,
or destination retail that would not rely on foot traffic in downtown for
business.
• Nelson is likely to see demand for 11 acres of new light industrial space
over the next 10 years. Railtown should try to attract light industrial users
that would fit well with retail and residential neighbours.
• Office demand can be difficult to project, but the City should be open
to government office users moving into Railtown. Start-up or small
technology companies are likely to prefer renovated warehouse space,
which could be an excellent fit for Railtown.
Depending on how motivated the City of Nelson is to promote
development in Railtown, the following strategies could be used:
• Relax Zoning Regulations: Railtown’s location adjacent to industrial
waterfront lands and to the downtown makes it a viable location for
residential, light industrial, retail, and office use. Creating zoning
regulations that allow for each of these types of uses will promote
development.
• Promote Catalytic Developments: Any development that will bring
activity to Railtown will promote interest in the area.
• Provide Incentives: The City of Nelson could provide some tax incentives
to developers in Railtown if it was considered a priority.
Precedents, Case Studies + Photo Essays
The following collection of images, precedents and case studies
are intended to act as points of inspiration and to help guide the
discussion about the potential future uses, built forms, public spaces,
sustainaibilty tools, and other ammenities for the Railtown District.
Concept sketch for the new Emily Carr University
campus, located on a past industrial site.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
13
The Rail Yards District,
Victoria, BC
The Rail Yards development is
built on a former industrial site,
along the Selkirk Waterway in
Victoria’s Inner Harbour.
PRECEDENTS
It has a mix of uses with an
industrial look and feel, and
is well connected, allowing
residents to walk, boat or cycle
to downtown.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
PRECEDENTS
Mixed use retail, light industrial, residential
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Granville Island, Vancouver, BC
PRECEDENTS
The market and variety of artisans
working and displaying their work
on Granville Island make it a popular
destination among tourists and
residents of Vancouver. While it is most
widely known for these reasons, one of
the greatest lessons we can take from
Granville Island is how to incorporate
active industries (such as cement
production) with vibrant public spaces.
The design of many of the shops speak
to the historic use of Granville Island by
the railway (right).
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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Above: The Granville Island Cement Factory operates daily, providing good jobs close to downtown.
This activity adds to the visitors’ experience. Murals on the cement silos are a recent addition.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
PRECEDENTS
Below: The vibrant public realm of Granville Island.
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Railspur District, Granville Island
Vancouver, BC
The Railspur District is made up of a number of
industrial buildings that have been adapted for
use by artists and artisans. Studio activities range
from boat builders, to sake makers, and potters.
PRECEDENTS
Small changes such as covered pedestrian areas,
windows, and frequent entrances into studios
transforms the experience of these industrial
buildings.
Common to industrial areas is the ommission of
curbs, which allows for greater flexibility of use.
Studios are able to spillout into outdoor workspace. The interior space is flexible so the artist
can set it up to suit their needs, including determining the amount of space given up for the store
front.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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Parking
Section Cut Line
2 lanes shared use traffic
no curb
Covered Sidewalks
Covered
Sidewalk
Studio Front Sale
+ Display Space
Studio Front
Rear workshop
PRECEDENTS
Active work spaces are revealed, and spill out into the public realm.
Rear workshop
Outdoor work space
Parking
0
0 0.5
Outdoor Workspace in Rear
Studio activities are made visible
Shared
10 Lanes
Use
5
1
2
3
4
5
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
19
20
6
Park Stage, Granville Island
Vancouver, BC
PRECEDENTS
An audience seating area is built into the
hillside adjacent to the theatre company.
The industrial garage doors open to reveal
back stage.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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Evergreen Brickworks, Toronto, ON
The site has a restored wetland
and integrated stormwater
management, which highlights
the renewed connection
between industry and ecology.
The wetland provides a
beautiful backdrop to private
events, such as weddings.
Site Overview
Dtah: http://dtah.com/project/evergreen-brick-works/
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Farm Fridays
Nicole McIsaac Spacing Magazine: http://spacing.ca/
toronto/2010/07/23/farm-friday-evergreen-brickworks/
Joseph and Jamie Photography, Qideas: http://www.
qideas.ca/theterrace/
Cask Days: http://caskdays.com/guide, http://caskdays.com/2012
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Industrial buildings have been
adapted for use by artists as
gallery space, brewers for
production and public and
private special events, bicycle
workshops, weekly farmers
market, sustainability education
programming, and seasonal
recreational activities such as
skating.
PRECEDENTS
Evergreen Brickworks integrates
cultural, recreation, educational
and ecological on the past brick
manufacturing site outside of
Toronto, ON.
The Dell at the University of Virginia
AFTER
LANDSCAPE CASE STUDIES
BEFORE
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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• Daylights and restores a 1,200
linear foot section of piped stream
to a more naturalized profile with
meanders and vegetated stream
banks.
• Provides habitat and sources of
food for wildlife as evidenced by
the dramatic increase in wildlife
sightings that have occurred since
the completion of the project.
• Manages runoff from up to a 2-year
storm event, with excess runoff
diverted through the original
underground pipe to a storwater
treatment facility located 0.75 miles
downstream.
• Reduces and delays peak
stormwater discharge, as evidenced
by monitoring data. This results in
less flash flooding, less bank erosion,
and more opportunities for sediment
to settle.
• Reduces sediment and nutrient
loadings downstream, reducing
total suspended solids by 30-92%,
phosphate by 23-100%, and nitrate
by -50-89% according to water
sample data.
• Provides recreational opportunities
for an estimated 10,000 users each
year, including members of the
University, the adjacent residential
communities, and thousands of
visitors each year.
• Provides an educational resource and
learning laboratory for students. The
Dell has been the subject of thesis
work, individual and group grantfunded research, academic design
work, and is used as an outdoor
classroom year-round.
http://landscapeperformance.org/casestudy-briefs/the-dell-at-the-university-ofvirginia
Menomonee Valley Redevelopment and
Community Park
AFTER
LANDSCAPE CASE STUDIES
BEFORE
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RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL +
SOCIAL + ECONOMIC BENEFITS
Increased developer yield
(usable land) by 10-12% over
conventional development by
clustering development sites
and consolidating stormwater
management.
Treats water quality and manages
100-year flood volumes for 100+
acre basin.
Created public access to the
Menomonee River and over 60
acres of park/open space in a area
that had been off-limits to the
public for 50+ years.
Added 3 pedestrian/bicycle bridges
and 7 miles of regional bike and
pedestrian trails, linking greater
Milwaukee and neighborhoods to the
park, river, and valley.
Triggered the use of the Menomonee
River Valley as an outdoor science
laboratory, which receives 10,000
student visits annually.
Increased development site property
values by 1,400% between 2002 and
2009.
Added over $1 million in annual City
property tax revenues.
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
http://landscapeperformance.org/case-study-briefs/
menomonee-valley-redevelopment
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
PHOTO ESSAY: BUILDING TYPOLOGIES
Rowhouses + Townhouses
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
PHOTO ESSAY: BUILDING TYPOLOGIES
Affordable Housing
25
Modular
Cafe
PHOTO ESSAY BUILDING TYPOLOGIES
The following are examples of the
types of uses and activities that
modular structures can support.
Travelling Community Art Van
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Gallery Space
Book Store
Live/Work
Uses + Activities
Businesses supporitng outdoor recreation
PHOTO ESSAY: POSSIBLE USES
Artist and craft studios
Gyms and sports facilities
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
PHOTO ESSAY: INDUSTRIAL PAST
Celebrating Industrial Past
28
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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PHOTO ESSAY: INDUSTRIAL PAST
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
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RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Appendix
31
Gateway
Site boundary
nm
ver
o
G
Steep slope (barrier)
(0.5m contours)
Pedestrian Underpass
Key Pedestrian Route
Active Rail Corridor
(site barrier)
t
en
.
Rd
Historic C.P. Rail
Superintendents House
Airfield
Historic C.P. Rail Building.
Now The Chamber of Commerce
Historic building: Now
The Art of Brewing
Multi-Use Waterfront Trail
Rosemont
St.
Gateway
B
r
ake
Cottonwood
Creek
Cottonwood
Falls Park
Pedestrian
Bridge
Pedestrian
Gateway
Cottonwood
Market
Highways 3 &
6 (barriers
to the site)
Residential
Commercial
Core
(Downtown)
32
RAILTOWN DISTRICT: SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN
Inventory + Analysis Diagram
RAILTOWN:
Inventory and Analysis Diagram
R
a
ailw
yS
t.
MEMO To: Pam Mierau, Planner, City of Nelson From: J.P. Raulot-­‐Lapointe c/o Joaquin Karakas -­‐ Modus Date: December 1st, 2015 Subject: Market Overview for Railtown Introduction & Background This memo is intended to provide a high level overview of market environment that will influence the proposed redevelopment and revitalization of the Railtown neighbourhood in Nelson. The projections in this memo are building upon the Sustainable Waterfront and Downtown Master Plan produced by IBI. That report by IBI included a market analysis in the appendix produced by Colliers. The Colliers market analysis forms the baseline for the comments in this memo. The City of Nelson is now focusing on the Railtown neighbourhood, which was a component of the Waterfront Master Plan. Modus Planning Design Engagement is assisting the City of Nelson with creating a new vision for Railtown. This memo includes high-­‐level market analysis of the residential, light industrial, commercial, and office sectors. All of these land uses are significantly influenced by population growth. Population The 2011 report produced by Colliers for the City of Nelson included population forecasts that influenced projections for residential, light industrial, commercial and office demand. This section of the memo will take a look at how those 2011 forecasts compare to recent growth in Nelson based on population data from Statistics Canada, and BC Stats. Population The Colliers report forecasted Nelson would see population growth of 450 new residents per year over the next 10 years. That level of growth has not been met since 2011 and seems unlikely in the short term. • Since 1981 the population of Nelson saw its fastest annual growth rate between 2006 and 2011. Between these years Nelson grew at just over 2% and added just under 200 people per year. • BC Stats estimated the Nelson population in 2014 to be 10,532 – which represented an average annual growth rate of just below 1% or 302 new residents since 2011. The following table displays the population projections assuming low, medium and high growth scenarios. The high growth rate is slightly below the rate used in the Colliers report, here an annual growth rate of 3% is assumed. The medium growth forecast assumes the rate of growth over the past 8 years continues, while the low growth forecast is based on BC Stats growth forecast for the Nelson Local Health Area. The High Growth forecast is believed to be overly optimistic. Growth in Nelson will most likely lie somewhere between the Low Growth and Medium Growth forecast, but for this memo the Medium Growth forecast will be assumed. Residential The residential market analysis will include a review of recent historical housing starts as well as a look at sales of recently built homes. Housing Starts Since 2009 housing starts in Nelson have averaged 59 per year, with a high of 96 starts in 2014 and a low of 29 in 2013. A breakdown of starts by housing type was not readily available. Based on the Medium Growth forecast, Nelson would require between 80 and 95 new homes annually through to 2024. The Colliers report based future housing demand by type given the current and future age profile of Nelson’s residents. Using the proportions of demand of housing by type established in the Colliers reports, and assuming the Medium Growth scenario, creates the following housing projections: •
•
•
Single family homes: between 45 and 50 new homes per year Apartments: between 20 to 25 new units per year Townhomes: between 15 and 20 new units per year If this forecast projects the overall expected growth for Nelson, the question for Railtown is how much of this projected development can it capture. The Colliers report estimated that 70% of future apartment development and 50% of future townhome development would occur in the Waterfront neighbourhoods. If 20% of future apartment and townhome development can be directed to Railtown, it will have almost 80 residential units in 10 years. The Nelson OCP sets a target of 100 residential units in Railtown. Upcoming Projects There are some significant multifamily projects that have recently been approved or are currently under construction in Nelson, including: •
•
•
Nelson Commons: Will include 54 apartment units and is currently under construction. It is located on the east side of downtown and will be above retail. Nelson Landing: Approved for 265 units. The first phase will include an 8-­‐plex and will be started in 2016. Nelson Landing is located on the waterfront in Fairview on Sproat Drive. The Kerr apartment building, which burnt down in 2011, will be rebuilt with 40 apartment units. Construction is slated to start in 2016. Given the level of construction already taking place, Nelson looks like it will have more than enough multi-­‐family supply for the next few years based on current expected growth. It is possible that new development will produce fewer single-­‐family homes than projected. Recently Built Sales This section highlights the sale of residential units developed since 2010 that have been tracked by the MLS system. It should be noted that not all newly built units are listed by the MLS. Since 2010, there have been 11 listed single-­‐family homes built and sold in Nelson. •
The average price of newly built single-­‐family homes in Nelson was $457,000 for a home that averaged 2,000 square feet of finished space Since 2010 there have been 24 townhomes sold that were built since 2010 and tracked on MLS. A few new developments were not listed on MLS so have not been included. •
Townhome sizes range from 1-­‐bedroom units at 676 square feet to 3 bedroom units that are over 1,600 square feet. •
•
Prices for most sold units range from $250,000 to $350,000. Townhome projects mostly have not occurred in central Nelson, the projects reviewed either occurred on the western, southern, or eastern side of town. Since 2010 there have been two apartment projects that have been listed in the MLS system including an 8-­‐unit apartment project at 2001 Perrier Road in south Nelson, and a 15-­‐unit project on West Richards Road. •
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The apartments on Perrier Road unit size average 960 square feet and have averaged $260,000 in selling price. The units on West Richards Road that were listed average 940 square feet in size and sold for an average value of $270,000. Commercial A full commercial analysis of Nelson was not completed for this memo. This commercial demand forecast for Railtown is based on a review of the Colliers report, and includes an estimate geared specifically for Railtown. The Colliers report makes the critical assumption regarding the future potential for retail on the Waterfront lands, including Railtown, that retail should be primarily focused on serving local residents. Local serving retail would typically be convenience oriented. An important reason for recommending future retail be local serving is to prevent new retail clusters from competing with downtown. Protecting Nelson’s vibrant downtown should continue to be paramount in the planning of the Waterfront neighbourhoods and Railtown. However, it is believed that Railtown can include types of retail that might not be best suited for downtown, and can include a small amount of non-­‐local serving, boutique/niche retail without negatively impacting downtown. According to BC Assessment there is approximately 775,000 square feet of retail space currently in Nelson. Nelson not only serves its local population, but also is a hub for the region as the largest City in the Regional District of Central Kootenay. The majority of Nelson’s retail area is either located downtown or in the Chahko Mika Mall which is adjacent to downtown. It is understood that the vacancy rate for street-­‐front retail space is very low, and any vacancies are typically filled quickly. The most recent commercial development in Nelson is the Kootenay Co-­‐op building, which includes 10,000 square feet of new commercial space. Another upcoming commercial development includes approximately 15,000 square feet of medical space, which will be built adjacent to the hospital. The largest upcoming commercial development will occur within Nelson Landing project, which has been approved to build over 25,000 square feet. Compared to other Waterfront neighbourhoods, Railtown is directly connected to downtown through Baker Street, and it is assumed that connectivity will be improved through this visioning process for Railtown. Therefore, it is believed Railtown can be considered as a continuation of downtown, which ultimately will focus on retail commercial uses that are, for the most part, not currently located downtown. Types of uses that Railtown should look to promote include: •
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Service commercial that requires additional outdoor space Businesses that require retail space in addition to assembly, storage, manufacturing or office space Studio space for artists that would combine a retail area with studio space Brew pubs or restaurants that could potentially want a large patio o Other types of retailers, including restaurants, that would service the daytime working population in Railtown Destination retail that does not rely on foot traffic created by adjacent stores The Colliers report forecasted that total demand for local serving retail in the Waterfront area would be for 5,000 square feet. This was based on a total build out of 500 residential units. The report also allowed for an additional 5,000 square feet for two full-­‐service restaurants, for a total of 10,000 square feet of retail. If the same ratios were applied just to Railtown, only 3,000 to 5,000 square feet of retail would be allowed, assuming the OCP goal of 100 residential units and one or two restaurants. This forecast underestimates the potential for Railtown, given its close proximity to downtown, and the possibility of focusing on different types of retail uses. It is believed Railtown could allow for up to 20,000 square feet of retail space without pressuring downtown retailers. Beyond the 5,000 square feet that would include two restaurants and a local serving convenience uses, the 20,000 square feet of retail would provide commercial space to businesses that might be more comfortable in a light industrial area than downtown. This estimate assumes that retail in Railtown should not include any large format retail projects, which is unlikely given the size of the neighbourhood, or a cluster of national brands. Railtown should focus on providing creative space and associated formats for the use of local businesses and entrepreneurs. Light Industrial The Colliers report projected demand of 25 acres of light industrial land over the next 10 years. This forecast tied demand for light industrial land to population growth and the estimated proportion of the labour force that would be involved in the goods producing sector. Based on the Medium Growth population estimate used in this memo, demand for light industrial land would be reduced to 11 acres over the next 10 years. The vacant lands adjacent to the airport and within Railtown could easily meet this amount of demand. Outside of the Waterfront Neighbourhoods there is not a large supply of industrial land, and it is understood that over the long term Nelson would like to see heavy industrial uses moved away from Nelson’s Waterfront. From the perspective of Railtown, the reduced future demand for light industrial space could slow redevelopment, but Railtown is a neighbourhood that will likely see a mix of uses such as retail, residential, and potentially office. Given its proximity to the rail lines, airport, and historic industrial use, light industrial development would be a good fit in Railtown. Being located next to downtown would also likely suit businesses and their employees. Light industrial buildings can be designed to integrate with retail and residential uses. Light industrial businesses that can operate with residents close by would likely be a great addition to a redeveloped Railtown, helping to bring jobs and an interesting mix of uses to the area. From a developer perspective, any light industrial development would likely be build-­‐to-­‐
suit, implying there would already be a tenant in mind for the building. The form of light industrial buildings can be designed with different proportions of shop space, office space, height, outdoor storage / parking space, etc. In a build-­‐to-­‐suit arrangement the tenant can specify specific dimensions for the building, and the owner knows it has a tenant ready to pay rent. Speculative development, where the owner builds a light industrial building before having tenants secured, would likely be too risky in a City Nelson’s size. Therefore any light industrial development would likely have to wait for an interested business to partner with a landowner / developer. Light industrial development could also take the form of live / work space. Finding the right tenants for a live / work building in a City the size of Nelson could take time. So any developer would likely require a proportion of pre-­‐sales or tenants before beginning construction. Artist studios could also be a great fit in Railtown, and help bring activity and promote development in the area. However, given the low rents artists would require studio space should only be considered in a refurbished existing building. Office Office demand is difficult to forecast, especially for smaller cities such as Nelson. The Colliers report did not estimate future office demand. The Nelson OCP states that it wants to retain the dominance of office uses in the downtown area. However, office use would be an excellent addition to Railtown, and given Railtown’s connection to downtown, it could be considered as a continuation of downtown’s office supply. The primary tenant for downtown office space is reportedly government, and there have been suggestions that some government offices may be looking for more space. Government would be an excellent tenant for a new office building in Railtown. A new office building would likely be mixed use, combining office space with either retail or light industrial uses. Similar to light industrial, developing speculative office space in a small city such as Nelson is probably too risky for a developer. Office development will likely only occur on a very small scale by owner operators, or when a tenant, such as government, has signed on. It is possible some of the existing buildings in Railtown could be refurbished for office use. Refurbished warehouse / light industrial buildings tend to be preferred by start-­‐up technology companies. Attracting technology companies is something most communities are trying to do. The lifestyle and vibrant small town feel in Nelson is probably its largest selling feature, and Nelson anecdotally already attracts a high proportion of creative and educated young professionals. New technology companies in Nelson will most likely result from the attractive lifestyle Nelson provides. Providing funky office space in a refurbished warehouse in a revitalizing neighbourhood such as Railtown can help, but ultimately the growth of technology companies will rely on Nelson’s population. Conclusions: The major findings from the preliminary market analysis to support the revisioning of the Railtown neighbourhood include: •
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Population forecasts suggested in the Colliers report from 2011 are overly optimistic. This will influence demand from all different types of land use, not only residential. Residential demand is expected to average between 81 and 95 annually over the next 10 years. At that growth rate, if Railtown can attract 20% of projected multi-­‐
family development, it could have 80 units in 10 years. Railtown could absorb up to 20,000 square feet of retail space without negatively impacting the downtown. Railtown would be an excellent location for service commercial retail where businesses might require extra storage, assembly, or office space beyond pure retail space. Other types of retailers that could be suited to Railtown include restaurants, or destination retail that would not rely on foot traffic in downtown for business. Nelson is likely to see demand for 11 acres of new light industrial space over the next 10 years. Railtown should try to attract light industrial users that would fit well with retail and residential neighbours. Office demand can be difficult to project, but the City should be open to government office users moving into Railtown. Start-­‐up or small technology companies are likely to prefer renovated warehouse space, which could be an excellent fit for Railtown. Depending on how motivated the City of Nelson is to promote development in Railtown, the following strategies could be used. : •
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Relax Zoning Regulations: Railtown’s location adjacent to industrial waterfront lands and to the downtown makes it a viable location for residential, light industrial, retail, and office use. Creating zoning regulations that allow for each of these types of uses will promote development. Promote Catalytic Developments: Any development that will bring activity to Railtown will promote interest in the area. Provide Incentives: The City of Nelson could provide some tax incentives to developers in Railtown if it was considered a priority.