How accurate are Northeast Ohio forecasters?

How accurate
are Northeast
Ohio forecasters?
A look at how seven area forecasters
performed on a day-to-day basis from midAugust to mid-October.
Short-term forecasts (Over the next three days)
High temperature
percent accuracy
(within 3 degrees)
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Average 40
73% 35
75%
WOIO
National
Weather
Service
Weather
Channel
Low temperature
percent accuracy
AccuWeather
74% WEWS
71% WKYC
63% WJW
Rain
percent
accuracy
(within 3 degrees)
80%
WOIO 70%
WKYC 58%
National
Weather
Service 48%
WEWS 43%
Average
52%
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
WKYC 74%
WJW 72%
57% WJW
National
Weather
Service 70%
45%
AccuWeather
Weather
39% Channel
Long-range forecasts (Days 4 and 5)
Average
72%
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
WOIO (Channel 19/43)
Low temperature
percent accuracy
(within 3 degrees)
Rain
percent
accuracy
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
(within 3 degrees)
73%
AccuWeather
Weather
Channel
WOIO 71%
WEWS 69%
National
Weather
Service 63%
Weather
Channel 57%
WJW 54%
Average
60%
69% WEWS
64% WOIO
61% WKYC
53%
AccuWeather
WOIO 59%
National
Weather
Service 46%
WKYC 43%
Average
50%
WEWS 69%
53% WEWS
51% WJW
50%
AccuWeather
Weather
45% Channel
WJW 62%
National
Weather
Service 59%
Average
63%
Weather
66% Channel
63% AccuWeather
61%
WKYC
WOIO
Top three overall long-range forecasters
Top three overall short-term forecasters
1st/ 72%
High temperature
percent accuracy
2nd/ 68%
3rd/ 66%
1st/ 64%
2nd/ 61%
3rd/ 56%
WKYC (Channel 3)
AccuWeather Inc.
WEWS (NewsChannel 5)
WOIO (Channel 19/43)
National Weather Service
About the survey:
• From mid-August through mid-October, the Akron Beacon Journal recorded forecasts as publicized for
Cleveland on the Web sites of television stations WOIO, WJW, WKYC and WEWS, the National Weather
Service, The Weather Channel and AccuWeather.
• On high and low temperatures, this study considered a successful forecast to be one that fell within 3
degrees of the actual temperature recorded at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport. (For instance, a
Research and analysis by Paula Schleis. David Knox, computer-assisted reporting manager, contributed to this report.
forecast of 60 degrees would be successful if the actual temperature fell between 57 and 63 degrees.)
• The issue of rain is more subjective, since meteorologists often associate a ‘‘percent chance’’ with any
prediction of rain. In this study, if the chance of rain was predicted to be 30 percent or greater and no trace
of rain was recorded, the forecast was considered a failure. Many Web site graphics use raindrops at 30
percent.
• Overall scores are averages of the three categories combined.
RICK STEINHAUSER/Akron Beacon Journal