Subsea market outlook Supply/Demand thoughts

Subsea market outlook
Supply/Demand thoughts
…and effects from the credit crisis
Rune Juliussen
Head of Research
[email protected]
+47 22 87 87 32
Kristian Diesen
[email protected]
+47 22 87 87 36
Erik Bergoo
[email protected]
+47 21 13 21 35
1
Long-term drivers intact,
•
Long-term drivers in place
–
–
–
–
Slow non-OPEC production growth, OPEC to keep prices high
despite short-term demand drop
More offshore, as onshore reserves are not accessible
….and Deeper Waters – the key driver for higher complexity
Require more and at the same time bigger offshore equipment
2
Credit crisis to impact short-term activity
•
Credit crisis to impact offshore subsea construction market
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Average planning price at USD70/bbl (Pareto E&P Survey 2008)
Majors/NOCs and deepwater fields at USD50-70/bbl
Up to 90% of SURF demand comes from this group of projects
Possible shortage of bigger subsea construction assets from 201011E
Support vessels more uncertain short-term
Credit crisis has a positive impact on long-term market balance by in
stalling speculative newbuilds
’Commited’ work different from other oil services activities
3
Demand pattern from 1970s unlikely to be repeated
False comparison on embargos, conservation, and non-OPEC supply
Global Oil Consumption change Y/Y
5.0
4.0
The big fear of the
investor market
3.0
2.0
1.0
Avg of 1.3mbpd
0.0
-1.0
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
-2.0
-3.0
Source: Pareto, BP
4
3)…stagnating production across the world
, BHI
5
2) IOCs still struggling, down 4.1% Y/Y in 2Q08
12 of the largest private producers have seen production significantly down
despite rig activity up 20-25% since 2003 and capex doubled
Source: Pareto, Company reports
6
Oil companies take a longer term view
Capex VS. Oil price
60.2
70.2
50.2
60.2
50.2
40.2
40.2
30.2
30.2
20.2
20.2
10.2
0.2
0.2
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
10.2
Oil Companies Capex
Crude Oil-Brent Dated FOB U$/BBL
Historically, short term volatility in oil price has not lead to lower capex as the capex
plans are made long term.
Oil companies: Chevron, Exxon, BP Statoil hydro and Total
7
And they have low gearing ratios (NIBD/Equity in %)
250.0
Majors *
Big Asia
Asia
200.0
NS
US GoM
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1997
-50.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
* = Exxon, Shell, BP, Total, Chevron, ConocoPhillips
Source: Pareto, Bloomberg, Company reports 8
“Will we all become Chinese?”
9
Risk to certain estimates: Pareto 2008 E&P Survey
1. Average Planning price at
USD70/bbl
•
•
•
•
Range of USD35-90
Majors around
USD60/bbl
A few small-cap and
Indies at USD75-90
Deepwater with USD5060 in ”hurdle rate”
Source: Pareto Research
10
Global E&P Spending, slower growth like 02-03
Total Spending
Offshore spending
~350
~250
More than 2/3 from NOCs/Majors
Majors
NOCs
IOCs
Others
% of total
2008E
25%
40%
25%
10%
Total spending growth
Growth
2008E
15%
20%
15%
15%
2009E
0-10%
0-10%
0%
-20%
2010E
0-10%
0-10%
0%
-10%
~15%
1-5%
2-6%
NOCs
Others
Indies
Majors
Source: Pareto Research, EnergyFiles, Douglas Westwood, Lehman
11
Some recent examples from small-caps
•
Petroquest Energy cut its third-quarter production outlook, citing the impact from
hurricanes, and its capital expenditure budget for 2008 due to the recent decline in
commodity prices and the impact from hurricane related deferred production.
–
2008 CAPEX $265 million to $285 million. Vs. $270 - 300 million
previosuly
•
The company also announced that on 2 October it closed a $300 million bank credit
facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank.
•
SandRidge Energy has slashed its capital expenditure budget from $2 billion to $1billion
…. blaming recent declines in natural gas prices.
•
Chesapeake Energy is cutting capital expenditure on drilling by 17% through 2010 due
to a plunge in natural gas prices and concerns about a US market surplus
•
Oilexco experiencing funding delays
12
SURF market in partiucular
•
SURF market outlook remains strong despite ”financial
turmoil”
– Very much driven by deepwater
•
On paper, supply growth looks aggressive
– ….but growth in ”enablers” is more limited
13
ODS-PETRODTA
CURRENT BID LIST
80% of demand from
Majors/NOCs
Operator
BHP
Location
AUS
Field
MACEDON
Bids in
Remarks
10/07: PROJECT TO BEGIN IN 2008 SUBJECT TO FEASIBILITY STUDY
BP
BP
NSNOR
NSNOR
VALHALL REDEVELP
VARIOUS
01/08: SEVERAL ISSUES DELAYING AWARD. RE-ROUTE 4 LINES
06/08: ROV SUPPORT VESSEL FOR 14 DAYS FIRM PLUS 21 DAILY OPTS
BP
BP
NSUK
NSUK
BROWN FIELDS
SKARV
11/07: IN CLARIFICATION STAGE
08/08: AWARD EXPECTED SEPT/OCT. STRUCTURE INSTALL IN 2010
BURULLUS
MEDEGY
VARIOUS
06/08: FIVE-YEAR IRM CONTRACT TENDER DUE OUT IN JULY
CHEVRON
CHEVRON
CHEVRON
AUS
SEAIND
SEATHI
GORGON
TBC
VARIOUS
08/08: TENDERS DUE OUT IN SEPT. INSTALLTION 2010/2011
03/08: PRE QUAL STARTED. BIDDERS TO REGISTER BY MARCH 19
39710 09/08: SUBMISSIONS DUE SEPT 19. AWARD OCT, WORK IN 2009
CNOOC
FECHI
PANYU
10/08: INSTALLATION TO BEGIN MID-2009
CNOOC
CNOOC
SEAIND
SEAIND
KARMILA
SES WORK
02/08: PRE-BID MEETING BEING HELD FEB 6, 2008.
07/07: SUBSEA CABLE INSTALLATION AND REPAIR
CNOOC
CONOCOPHILLIPS
SEAIND
NSNOR
VARIOUS
EKOFISK
DONG
DSVI INITIATIVE
EMP KANGEAN
EMP KANGEAN
NSNOR
NS
SEAIND
SEAIND
OSELVAR
VARIOUS
TERAN/SIRASUN/BA
TERAN/SIRASUN/BA
ENCANA
ENCANA
NAMCAN
NAMCAN
DEEP PANUKE
DEEP PANUKE
EXXONMOBIL
WANIG
BOSI
EXXONMOBIL
EXXONMOBIL
WANIG
WANIG
MPN
VARIOUS
39715 09/08: PREQUAL BIDS DUE SEPT 24, WORK TO BEGIN Q3 2009
40048 08/08: PREQUAL CLOSES AUG 23
HIBERNIA MANAGEMENT NAMCAN
ITHACA
NSUK
KODECO ENERGY
SEAIND
HIBERNIA
ATHENA
VARIOUS
01/10: EOI DUE BACK OCT 13. INSTALL JUNE TO AUG 2010 OR 2011
39741 10/08: AWARD EXPECTED IN NOV. INSTALLATION FROM AUG 2009.
39520 03/08: REGISTRATION CLOSED MARCH 13
KODECO ENERGY
SEAIND
VARIOUS
KONDUR PETROLEUM
LLOG
SEAIND
SELAT LALANG
NAMUSGM MISSISSIPPI
39654 07/08: TENDER RELEASED, INSTALLATION IN AUGUST
39720 10/08: INSTALLATION OF F/LINE & UMBILICALS. INSTALL Q2 2009
MAERSK O&G
ONGC
NSUK
IOC
DONAN
MUMBAI HIGH NRTH
39751 09/08: INSTALLATION TO TAKE PLACE DURING Q2 & Q3 2009
08/08: BIDS DUE SEPT.INSTALLATION BETWEEN APR 2011 & MAR 2012
ONGC
IOCIND
BOMBAY HIGH
PEMEX
PETROBRAS
PETROBRAS
LAMMEX
LAMBRA
LAMBRA
VARIOUS
JUBARTE
URUGUA
PETROBRAS
PETROBRAS
LAMBRA
LAMBRA
URUGUA/TAMBAU
VARIOUS
PETROBRAS
LAMBRA
VARIOUS
39625 07/08: FOUR-YEAR ROV CONTRACT FOR TWO VESSELS.
PETROBRAS
PETROBRAS
LAMBRA
NAMBRA
VARIOUS
RONCADOR
39776 10/08: TENDER RELEASED. BIDS DUE BY NOV 24
05/08: P-55 TENDER DUE OUT WITHIN SIX MONTHS. TWO PACKAGES
PETROSA
PETROSA
WASA
WASA
VARIOUS
VARIOUS
39483 03/08: AWARD DELAYED FOR TWO-YEAR CHARTER
39763 10/08: BIDS DUE NOV 11 WITH WORK TO BEGIN MARCH 09
PREMIER
PVEP
SEAIND
SEAVIE
NATUNA
DAI HUNG
39581 05/08: F/LINE REROUTE. REGN BY MAY 13. WORK BTWN JUNE-SEPT 08.
39722 10/08: BIDS SUBMITTED. INSTALLATION TO BEGIN MARCH
QATAR PETROLEUM
RWE-DEA
MIEQAT
NSUK
VARIOUS
TOPAZ
39614 04/08: BIDS DUE BY JUNE 15, AWARD EXPECTED BY OCT 13
08/08: AWARD EXPECTED DURING AUGUST. INSTALLATION Q2 2009
SANTOS PETROLEUM
SAUDI ARAMCO
SEAIND
MIESAU
OYONG
MANIFA
02/08: SANTOS YET TO AWARD CONTRACT. BIDS OVER BUDGET
39543 05/08: TECHNICAL CLARIFICATIONS ARE BEING CARIED OUT
SAUDI ARAMCO
MIESAU
VARIOUS
SHELL
SHELL
NAMUGOM PRINCESS
NAMUGOM PRINCESS
SNEPCO
SNEPCO
SNEPCO
WANIG
WANIG
WANIG
BONGA
BONGA NORTHWEST
BONGA SOUTHWEST
STAR ENERGY
SEAIND
KG GAS DEVELOP
TOTAL
TOTAL
NS
SEAIND
NS VARIOUS
HANDIL
39309 01/08: IN CLARIFICATION STAGE
39388 11/07: REGISTRATION CLOSED NOV 2, WORK TO BEGIN 2008
TOTAL
TOTAL
SEAIND
SEAIND
VARIOUS
VARIOUS
04/07: SURVEY WORK 25KM OFF BALIKPAPAN
39343 09/07: 3 YR CONTRACT FOR DSV. BID REQUIRED BY SEPTEMBER 18
TOTAL
SEAIND
VARIOUS
39352 09/07: DSV REQUIRED FOR 390 DAYS. BIDS DUE IN SEPT 27
TOTAL
TOTAL
TULLOW
WANIG
WANIG
WAGHA
OFON
VARIOUS
JUBILEE
W&T OFFSHORE
W&T OFFSHORE
NAMUSGM DANIEL BOONE
NAMUSGM DANIEL BOONE
39722 10/08: INSTALLATION FIRST HALF OF 2009
06/08: EOI RELEASED TO SUPPLY 6-IN RISER
W&T OFFSHORE
NAMUSGM DANIEL BOONE
39728 10/08: INSTALLATION DURING FIRST HALF OF 09
10/08: AWARD BY YEAR-END
39614 05/08: BIDS DUE MID-JUNE. WORK TO BEGIN DURING SEPTEMBER
08/08:
10/08:
08/07:
08/07:
TENDERS DUE ARPIL 2009. INSTALLATION IN 2011
EOI RELEASED.FULL TENDER EXPECTED YEAR END.AWARD JAN 09
PREQUALIFICATION DONE, SUBSEA PRODUCTION AND UMBILICAL
PREQUALIFICATION DONE, 16-IN RISER & 10-IN JUMPERS
06/08: FIRST PHASE BY MAY 1, 2009 & SECOND PHASE BY JULY 2009
39710 09/08: BIDS DUE SEPT 19. AWARD EXPECTED OCTOBER 10, 2008
05/07: INVITATION TO TENDER EXPECTED FIRST QUARTER 2008
12/07: PRE-QUAL BY DEC 19. SCAN & PIPELAY ROUTE SURVEYS
05/08: CLOSING DATE FOR EOI MAY 15.
39749 10/08: 1,068 DAY CONTRACT TO BEGIN JAN 12, 2009. BIDS OCT 28
01/08:: PETROBRAS EVALUATING SS7 BID AND TRYING TO LOWER
06/08: AWARD EXPECTED IN JULY/AUGUST
08/08: TENDER EXPECTED IN SEPTEMBER
08/07: PETROBRAS DELAYED OPENING COMM BIDS IN JULY -SS7 APPEAL
09/07: DP2 DSV FOR SURVEY AND DIVE SUPPORT WORK
09/08: SHELL HOLDING CLARIFICATIONS. INSTALLATION IN MAY 2009
09/08: SHELL HOLDING CLARIFICATIONS. INSTALLATION IN MAY 2009
03/08: PRE-QUAL CLOSES MAY 31, VSL REQUIRED BEFORE OCTOBER
06/08: DELAYS DUE TO NNPC REORGANISATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
38986 06/08: FURTHER DELAYS DUE TO NNPC REORGANISATION
07/08: PT ADI KARYA LOWEST BID - DEAL EXPECTED IN ONE MONTH
01/08: BIDS DUE FEB 14, CALL-OFF CONTRACT
01/08: PRE-QUAL CLOSES FEBRUARY 4, THREE-YEAR CALL OFF BASIS
09/08: POSSIBLY AWARDED DURING SEPT- FMC INTERESTED
14
Supply Growth Looks Aggressive on paper
• From end 2007 until 2011 the fleet could grow 73%
• Growth curve is falling but skewed towards 2008 and 2009.
Total Offshore Fleet Development
350
30%
327
312
25%
300
279
250
# Of Ships
235
15%
200
188
% YoY Change
20%
10%
150
5%
100
0%
<=2007
2008
2009
Total Fleet Year End
2010
YoY Growth In Fleet
2011
15
Distribution Of Fleet Growth
…but of the 139 newbuilds
on paper the segmentation
is “balanced”
Total newbuilds
139 Ships
30-45 to be pure IMR and
Well Intervention vessels
30 + 15 are ROVs and
smaller DSVs – New DSVs
not build for 20 years,
replacement is fear
10-20 could be in potential
financial squeeze
Deepwater Enablers
38 Ships
IMR/WI/Support/Shallow Water
101 Ships
=> Leaves limited new
supply of ”real”
construction assets
16
Demand Growth IMR and WI
• Market tripled since 2002
– Hurricane repair in US GoM
– Well intervention from vessels as alternative to drilling rigs
– Fields with large number of subsea wells require dedicated vessels
– IMR of pipelines and other subsea installations increase due to accumulated
installations and increased age, but efficiency is also improving
Subsea IMR market
V
e
s
s
e
l
d
a
y
s
25 000
Hurricane repair
20 000
Well intervention
15 000
Subsea well IMR
Trad. IMR
10 000
5 000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
17
Real SURF enablers are rare
Source: Pareto research, Offshore Research, Clarckson
Vessels with deepwater construction and pipe lay capabilities
• Main criteria: Crane capacity, deck space, length, breadth, DP III etc.
• Adding these criteria yields a very limited number of available units
• Existing “enabler” fleet of 68, newbuilds of 23 represents a 34% fleet increase
Vessel
Newbuilds
JASCON 34
SKANDI SALVADORE
CYGNUS
DOFCON BRAZIL OSCV 06 TBN2
DOFCON/TECHNIP DSV TBN
GDV DSV NEWBUILD 2
HOS IRON HORSE
JASCON 35
JASCON 18
CECON CONSTRUCTOR I
CECON CONSTRUCTOR II
CECON CONSTRUCTOR III
SAMSON
ACERGY HAVILA DSV
COOEC NEWBUILD DLB 2
GULMAR DA VINCI
POLYCREST TBN
SEA4 TBN1
SEA4 TBN2
SEAWAY HEAVY LIFTING NEW
SOLSTAD DSV NEWBUILD 1
SAIPEM FDS 2
SOLSTAD OSCV 06 L TBN
GLOBAL 1200
Type
LB
LAYSV
LAYSV
LAYSV
DSV1
DSV1
DSV1
DLB
LB
LAYSV
LAYSV
LAYSV
DSV1
DSV1
DLB
DSV1
LAYSV
LAYSV
LAYSV
DB
DSV1
LB
LAYSV
LB
LOA
119
106
120
141
157
120
131
147.5
150
130
130
130
180
120
204
115.4
125
110
110
183
120
175
156.9
162.3
Kode
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
Built
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2010
B/C
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2010
Operator
Contractor
SEA TRUCKS
DOF SUBSEA
DEEPOCEAN
DOF SUBSEA
DOF SUBSEA
GDV SUBSEA
HOS IRON HORSE
SEA TRUCKS
SEA TRUCKS
CECON
CECON
CECON
COASTLINE
HAVILA
COOEC
GULMAR
POLYCREST
SEA4
SEA4
ACERGY
SOLSTAD
SAIPEM
SOLSTAD
GLOBAL IND.
SEA TRUCKS
DOF SUBSEA
DEEPOCEAN
DOF SUBSEA
TECHNIP
GDV SUBSEA
HORNBECK
SEA TRUCKS
SEA TRUCKS
DEEPFLEX
DEEPLEX
CECON
COASTLINE
ACERGY
COOEC
GULMAR
POLYCREST
SEA4
SEA4
ACERGY
SOLSTAD
SAIPEM
SOLSTAD
GLOBAL IND.
18
Deepwater trend will require different SURF enablers
Vessels with deepwater construction and pipe lay capabilities
19
Deepwater key to increased global oil and gas
production
Deepwater oil production growth *)
000s of bbls of oil per day
Deepwater oil production
11,000
North America
10,000
Asia
9,000
W. Europe
8,000
Africa
7,000
Latin America
6,000
Australasia
5,000
Middle East
4,000
E. Europe & FSU
2,5x
92 vessels
Enablers
68 vessels
Enablers
3,000
2,000
1,000
,0
1985
© Energyfiles Ltd
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
*) Deepwater: >1,300ft of water (1,000ft for North America)
Source: Energyfiles (2007)
20
Deep Water Projects In Detail
2002-2007 DW projects list
Horn Mountain
Devil's Tower
Na Kika
Marlim Sul
Xikomba
Magnolia
Marco Pol
Barracuda
Kizomba B
Thunder Horse
Caratinga
Dalia
Chinguetti
Erha
Albacora
Greater Plutonio
Kikeh
Constitution / Ticonderoga
Espadarte
US
US
US
Brazil
Angola
US
US
Brazil
Angola
US
Brazil
Angola
Mauritania
Angola
Brazil
Angola
Malaysia
US
Brazil
Total Number Of Projects
19
3+ per year
2002
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008-2010 DW projects list
SPAR
SPAR
semi sub
FPSO
FPSO
TLP
TLP
FPSO
FPSO
semi sub
FPSO
FPSO
FPSO
FPSO
FPSO
FPSO
FPSO
SPAR
FPSO
Mississippi Canyon 920-A FPS Independence Hub USA
Marlim Leste P53 FPSO (Ex Settebello)
Brazil
Marlim Sul P51 FPS
Brazil
Akpo FPSO
Nigeria
KG D6 MA FPSO (Aker Smart 1)
India
Agbami FPSO
Nigeria
Mississippi Canyon 778-A FPS Thunder Horse
USA
Green Canyon 613-A TLP Neptune
USA
Mississippi Canyon 650-A FPS Blind Faith (DDS) USA
Frade FPSO (Ex Lu San)
Brazil
Mississippi Canyon 941/942-A FPS (MinDoc)
USA
Green Canyon 641-A T-Spar Tahiti
USA
Green Canyon 654-A TLP Shenzi
USA
Cachalote FPSO (Brazil BC-60) (Capixaba Ex StenBrazil
Azurite Marine FDPSO (Ex MT Europe)
Congo (Brazzaville)
Mississippi Canyon 736-A FPS Thunder Hawk
USA
Brazil BC-10 FPSO
Brazil
Brazil
Tupi FPSO BW Peace
Marlim Sul P56 FPS
Brazil
Jubilee FPSO (Mahogany/Hyedua)
Ghana
Urugua-Tambau O-FPSO Cidade de Santos MV20 Brazil
Atwater Valley 063-A TLP Telemark
USA
Walker Ridge 206 FPSOCascade/Chinook BWPion USA
Mondo + Saxi
Angola
• Demand growth >100%
• Bigger fields
• Deeper waters
• Pipelines etc also require deepwater capability
• Supply growth <35%
Æ The market should be tight going forward
2007-08
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2008
Semi-Sub
FPSO
Semi-Sub
FPSO
FPSO
FPSO
Semi-Sub
TLP
Semi-Sub
FPSO
TLP
Spar
TLP
FPSO
FPSO
Semi-Sub
FPSO
FPSO
Semi-Sub
FPSO
FPSO
TLP
FPSO
FPSO
Total Number Of Projects
24
= 8 per year
21
Strong rig backlogs and active NOCs
Deepwater rig availability
Contracted activity up 150% to 2011E
120
14
100
50
0
60
40
20
70
60
2
80
Petrobras has contracted 60% more
rigs in 2012 vs 2008
0
36
55
88
77
40
30
46
52
56
58
2010
2011
2012
36
20
0
2008
2009
Contract + option
2010
2011
Available
2008
2009
Contract
Source: Pareto, ODS
22
Rig activity leading indicator to FPSOs and Subsea
…but cont’ skewed to the right due to delays and bottlenecks
Rig vs Subsea awards
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
34
20
7
9
5
3
US GoM
Brazil
Rigs secured
Angola
Subsea contracts
• Mismatch between awarded rig contracts vs. subsea contracts in US GoM/Brazil
• Brazil and US GoM to generate USDbn5-10 in new contracts?
• More contracts in Angola and eventually Nigeria (Bonga etc)
23
Source: Pareto, ODS, Company Reports
Conclusion
•
SURF market outlook remains strong despite ”financial
turmoil”
– Very much driven by deepwater
•
On paper, supply growth looks aggressive
– ….but growth in ”enablers” is more limited
•
Some of the new and bigger assets could be for sale
(…and/or forced to)
•
There are potentially opportunities also in a bigger scale
– Attractively valued companies after share price
massacres
24
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Pareto complies with the standards for recommendations issued by the Association of Norwegian Stock broking Companies and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts. Pareto is under the
supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway.
No agreement with the issuer concerning Recommendations
Pareto has no agreements with issuers with respect to dissemination of Recommendations. Generally Pareto will however present the Recommendation for the issuer prior to dissemination to assure a
correct factual basis.
Organisation and duty of confidentiality
All employees of Pareto are subject to duty of confidentiality towards clients and with respect to handling inside information. Pareto has established “Chinese walls” and other organisational procedures for
the purpose of minimizing conflicts of interest within Pareto and in the Pareto group and between clients.
25
Disclaimers and disclosures
Compensation schemes for analysts
No part of analysts’ salaries or compensations relates directly to investment banking services or other services provided by Pareto or related companies to issuers. Analysts are however part of the
general bonus scheme.
Updating of Recommendations
Pareto has no fixed schedule for updating.
Disclosure of assignments and mandates
Please see Appendix B for an overview of (a) all financial instruments in which Pareto or related companies are market makers or liquidity providers, (b) all financial instruments where Pareto or related
companies have been lead managers or co-lead managers over the previous 12 months and (c) all issuers of financial instruments to whom Pareto or related companies have rendered investment
banking services over the previous 12 months. Please be aware that agreements and services that are still subject to confidentiality are excluded.
Previous Recommendations
For an overview of Pareto’s Recommendations in the financial instruments of the issuing company the last 12 months, including data on changes in Recommendations. Log on to www.pareto.no, type in
company name or symbol in the search field and click search. Under Reports you will find previous Recommendations. Please be aware that certain informal Recommendations may be excluded.
Statistics on Recommendations
Please see Appendix C for quarterly statistics on the overall ratio of “Strong Buy”, “Buy”, “Hold” and “Reduce” in Pareto’s Recommendations in financial instruments, including a split with respect to issuers
where Pareto have provided investment banking services the previous 12 months.
Additional provisions on Recommendations distributed in the United States
This research reports is prepared by Pareto Securities ASA (“Pareto”) and distributed in the United States by Nordic Partners Inc. (“Nordic Partners”). The research report is intended for distribution in the
United States to institutional investors only. Nordic Partners is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of FINRA & SIPC. U.S. persons seeking
more information about any of the securities discussed in this report, or wishing to execute a transaction in these securities, should contact Nordic Partners at 488 Madison Avenue, NY 10022, Tel. 212
829 4200. To the extent required by applicable U.S. laws and regulations, Nordic Partners accepts responsibility for the contents of this publication. Investment products provided by or through Nordic
Partners or Pareto are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by Nordic Partners or Pareto. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail certain risks. This document does not constitute
or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The securities of non-U.S. issuers
may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to
the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase
or sale of securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies.
Nordic Partners and/or Pareto may have material conflicts of interest related to the production or distribution of this research report which are disclosed on the following Appendix A and Appendix B.
Disclaimer
Pareto and the analyst accept no responsibility and expressively disclaim any and all liabilities for any and all losses related to investments caused by or motivated by Recommendations from Pareto. Any
person receiving a Recommendation from Pareto is deemed to have accepted this disclaimer. The disclaimer shall apply even if an Investment Recommendation is shown to be erroneous or incomplete
or based upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions by Pareto, and irrespective of whether Pareto or any person related to Pareto can be blamed for the incident.
26
Disclaimers and disclosures
- Appendix A
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Investment Recommendation Regulation § 2-4 (2) and § 2-5, letter a-b
Pareto Securities ASA does not alone or together with related companies or persons – hold a portion of the shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital – in any companies where a recommendation
has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities ASA.
Pareto Securities ASA may hold financial instruments in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities ASA in connection with rendering investment
services, including Market Making.
Please find below an overview of material interests in financial instruments held by employees in Pareto Securities ASA, in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by
Pareto Securities ASA.
By material interest is meant holdings exceeding a value of NOK 50,000.
Company name:
Analyst
Total
holding holding
Company name:
Analyst
holding
Total
holding
ACERGY S.A.
0
75 401
NORTHLAND RESOURCES
0
AKER ASA A-AKSJER
0
1 560
NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
0
782 000
10 000
AKER BIOMARINE ASA
0
1 600
OCEAN HEAVYLIFT
0
337 000
BLOM ASA
0
82 201
9 634
BONHEUR ASA
0
2 804
CAMILLO EITZEN
0
16 500
CERMAQ ASA
0
3 000
CREW GOLD
0
632 693
OCEAN RIG ASA
0
OLAV THON EIENDOM ASA
0
501
ORKLA ASA A-AKSJER
0
13 805
PROSAFE ASA
0
7 700
PROTECTOR FORSIKRING
0
499 100
51 000
DNB NOR ASA
0
26 074
QUESTERRE ENERGY CORP
0
DNO ASA
0
60 000
RENEWABLE ENERGY CORP
0
3 700
EMENTOR ASA
0
2 080
RIEBER & SØN ASA
0
2 000
EMGS ASA
0
1 000
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUI
0
202
ESTATIA RESORT AS
0
485 714
SANDNES SPAREBANK GR.FOND
0
6 970
70 001
FARSTAD SHIPPING ASA
0
2 401
FAST SEARCH AND TRANSFER
0
75 000
FRED OLSEN ENERGY
0
400
SCAN SUBSEA ASA
0
SEADRILL LTD
0
3 000
SEVAN MARINE
0
1 000
FRONTLINE LTD
0
4 895
SHIP FINANCE
0
918
GANGER ROLF ASA
0
6 604
SOFTWARE INNOVATION
0
75 000
GRENLAND GROUP ASA
0
6 500
SPAREB. NORD-NORGE GR.FOND
0
5 202
HAVILA SHIPPING ASA ORD.
0
22 450
SPAREBANK 1 SR-BANK
0
5 060
INDRE SOGN SPAREBANK
0
2 000
SPAREBANKEN MØRE GR.FOND
0
361
KLEPP SPAREBANK
0
5 100
SPAREBANKEN ØST GR.F
0
2 036
LERØY SEAFOOD GROUP
0
13 400
STATOIL ASA
0
7 672
MARITIME INDUSTRIAL SERVICES
0
1 600
TANDBERG TELEVISION ASA
0
500
NORDIAG ASA
0
42 000
TEEKAY PETROJARL ASA
0
2 000
NORDIC HEAVY LIFT ASA
0
465 000
NORMAN ASA
0
1 001
NORSE ENERGY CORP. A
0
53 000
NORSK HYDRO ASA
0
1 155
TELENOR ASA
0
9 482
TOMRA SYSTEMS
0
2 544
TGS NOPEC GEOPHYSIC.
0
7 204
YARA INTERNATIONAL
0
16 984
This overview is updated monthly (last updated 31.07.2007).
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Disclaimers and disclosures
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Investment Recommendation Regulation § 2-5, letter d-f,
ref the Securities Trading Act Section 2-10
Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities ASA have prepared or
distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities ASA or related companies have
been lead manager/co-lead manager or have rendered publicly known not immaterial investment
banking services over the previous 12 months:
-
Ability Drilling
Africa Offshore Services
Aker American Shipping
Aker ASA
Aker Biomarine
Akva Group
Altinex
Austevoll Seafood
Awilco Offshore
B+H Ocean Carriers
B2 Holding ASA
Bergen Yards Holding
Biofuel
Biotec Pharmacon
Blom
Blue Bay Club
Bluewater
BV Energi
BW Offshore
Camillo Eitzen
Cecon
Concedo
CorrOcean
Crew Gold Corp
Crew Minerals
Davie Yards
Deep Ocean
Deep Sea Bergen Invest
Deep Sea Supply
DeepOcean
DNO
DOF ASA
DOF Installer
DOF Subsea
DP Producer
Eastern Property
-
Eitzen Chemical
Ener Petroleum
EOC Ltd
Faktor Eiendom
Fjellkraft
FPS Ocean
Frigstad
Green Reefers
Grieg Seafood
Hafslund
Havila
Imarex NOS
InterOil
Kverneland
Lerøy Seafood
London Mining
LPG New Corp
Malka Oil
Maritime Industrial Services
Marracc
Miras Holding
Monitor Oil
Mosvold Supply
MPF
MPU Offshore Lift
Norchip
Nordic Heavy Lift
Noreco
Norse Energy
Nortechs FPSO
Northern Offshore
Northland Resources
Norwegian Property
Oceanteam
Odfjell Invest
On & Offshore
-
PA Resources
Pertra
Peterson
PetroJack
PetroProd Ltd
PetroRig
ProdJack
Prosafe
Protector Forsikring
Questerre
Rauma Gruppen
REM Offshore
Romania Invest
RomReal
Ross Olympic
Rubicon Offshore
RXT
Sandnes Sparebank
Scan Geophysical
Sea Production
SeaDragon
SeaDrill
SeaLift
SeaProduction
Sevan Drilling
Sevan Marine
Skeie Drilling & Production
Solstad
Standard Drilling
Tandberg Data
Terra Rig
Torm
Transeuro Energy
Viking Drilling
Vulcan Resources
Wega Mining
- Appendix B & C
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Investment Recommendation Regulation § 2-5 (4)
Column I shows the overall ratio of “Strong Buy”, “Buy”, “Hold” and “Reduce” in Pareto’s
Recommendations in financial instruments.
Column II shows the ratio of “Strong Buy”, “Buy”, “Hold” and “Reduce” in Pareto’s
Recommendations in financial instruments where Pareto Have provided investment banking
services to the issuer the previous 12 months.
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Reduce
Column I
3,0 %
70,9 %
22,1 %
4,0 %
Column II
7,5 %
88,7 %
3,8 %
0,0 %
This overview is updated quarterly (last updated 30.06.2007).
Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities ASA have prepared or
distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities ASA or related companies are
market makers or liquidity providers:
- I. M. Skaugen ASA
- TrefOil
- RomReal
This overview is updated monthly (this overview is for the period 01.08.2006 – 31.07.2007).
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