Economic Impacts of Reducing Wait Times at U.S. Border Crossings

Economic Impacts of Reducing Wait
Times at U.S. Border Crossings
Bryan Roberts
Adam Rose
Nathaniel Heatwole
Dan Wei
Misak Avetisyan
Fynn Prager
Charles Baschnagel
Timothy Beggs
Oswin Chan
Isaac Maya
1
Study Objectives
• Phase I : Estimate economic impacts of
changes in wait times at U.S. border crossings
due to changes in U.S. Customs & Border
Protection staffing
- 17 land passenger, 12 land freight, 4 airports
- Impacts measured by time value opportunity costs
(non-market), Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), employment & at both regional & national
levels
• Phase II : Focus on international airports
• Combined results are presented here
2
Border Crossings
• People and vehicles come to a border
crossing, enter a wait queue, and then
undergo primary inspection of their passports
or freight documents
• Those passing this inspection then enter the
U.S.
• Those who do not are sent to secondary
inspection
• We focus on the wait time before primary
inspection
3
Land Border Crossings:
Passenger Vehicles
4
Land Border Crossings:
Trucks
5
International Airports
6
Impediments to International Trade
• Gains from free trade are well-established
(comparative advantage => global efficiency)
• Practically all research to date: explicit trade
restrictions (e.g., tariffs & quotas)
• Hardly any literature on “administrative costs”
(e.g., processing, health & security inspection)
7
Basic Analytics: Passengers
Total opportunity
cost of trip
(monetized)
P0
V: value of time
∆T: change in wait time
A
Change in consumer surplus:
Existing traffic: P0P1BA
New traffic: ABC
V*∆T
C
P1
B
D
Q0
Q1
Number of crossborder trips
8
What We Quantify
• We quantify how T changes with addition of
one inspection officer to a border crossing
• We quantify P0P1BA
• We quantify Q1-Q0 (for both passengers in
vehicles at land border crossings, and
international air passengers)
• We do not quantify ABC
– But these would be very small triangles
• We quantify GDP and employment impacts
related to Q1-Q0
9
Basic Analytics: Freight
Total cost of
freight shipment
V: trucking costs related to time
∆T: change in wait time
P0
A
P1
B
Change in transport cost:
Per shipment: P0P1
Total time cost savings: P0P1BA
V*∆T
Q0
Number of cross-border
truck shipments
10
What We Quantify
• We quantify how T changes with addition of
one inspection officer to a border crossing
• We quantify change in per-shipment transport
cost P0P1
• We quantify transport cost savings P0P1BA
• We assume a freight shipment elasticity with
respect to T equal to zero
• We quantify the GDP and employment
impacts related to the change in transport
cost change P0P1
11
Who Has Standing?
• Interesting issue for this study
– Welfare of both U.S. residents and non-U.S.
residents are affected by change in wait time
– Economies of U.S., Canada, and Mexico are all
affected by change in cross-border travel volume
– Should welfare of both groups and economic
impacts for all countries be counted from the
viewpoint of U.S. decision makers?
• Study summary focuses on results for U.S.
residents
• But study presents results for both groups
12
Should Indirect Impacts Be Counted
• Economic Consequence Analysis (ECA)
- includes all market transactions impacting GDP
- can include non-market impacts too
• Welfare Analysis—usually exclude indirects
- claims indirect effects embodied in price changes
- claims indirect effects are zero under full employment
(displace other activities)
- but if the economy operates at less than full
employment, there is a case for including them
13
Data & Methods
• Data
- CBP primary data on wait times
- travel expenditure data
• Methods
- operations research & econometric analysis of
staffing affect on wait times & travel volume
- logistical analysis of inspection process
- I-O analysis of changes in passenger travel
- CGE analysis of changes in freight costs
14
Economic Impact Components & Methods
Vehicle Wait
Time
Elasticity /
Calculation
Models
Other
Data
CBP
Data
Truck Wait
Time
Calculation
Models
Air Passenger
Wait Time
Calculation
Models
Land Passenger Wait
Time Value
Opportunity Cost
Passenger
Cost
Models
Truck
Transport
Cost
Models
InputOutput
Model
GTAP
CGE
Model
Impacts of Land
Passengers on
GDP and Jobs
Impacts of Truck
Transport Costs on
GDP and Jobs
Truck Wait Time
Value Opportunity
Cost
Airline Passenger
Wait Time Value
Opportunity Cost
Passenger
Cost
Models
GTAP
CGE
Model
Impacts of Air
Passengers on
GDP and Jobs
15
Econ Impact Components & Methods
• Passenger Impacts





change in wait time (operations research and economic analysis)
value of wait time (opportunity cost measure)
increased tourist/business travel (wait-time elasticity)
direct expenditures (adapted BEA & SANDAG data)
indirect regional/national macro impacts
 Land passengers (I-O analysis)
 Air passengers (CGE model)
• Freight Impacts




change in wait time (econometrics; queuing theory)
reduction in freight costs (logistical model)
direct change in competitiveness (CGE model)
indirect macroeconomic impacts (CGE model)
16
How Does Adding or Subtracting One
Officer Impact Wait Time at a Crossing?
• In our first study, we used two methods to evaluate
impact of adding one officer to primary inspection
during the 8 most congested hours of the day:
1) Results of July 2012 controlled experiment at San Ysidro that
increased the number of officers doing primary inspection
2) A theoretical methodology that can be applied to all border
crossings
 Results of experiment consistent with the theoretical
methodology
• We used the theoretical methodology to evaluate the
impact on wait time of one less officer for the 8 least
congested and 8 most congested hours
17
Approximate Versus Exact Analysis
• The theoretical methodology was an
approximation to the true relationship
between officers and wait time
– It was known to underestimate the impact of
adding an officer
• In our second study, we developed an exact
analysis and applied it to three border
crossings
– Results confirm the underestimate hypothesis
• All of the results we show here are from the
first study and are significant underestimates
18
How Does a Change in Wait Time Affect
the Number of Passenger Trips?
• For passenger vehicles at land border crossings, we
used two sources of information:
 Results from the July 2012 experiment at San Ysidro: the
fall in wait time caused a significant increase in trips
 Previous research on the relationship between traffic
flow/trips and travel time
 Both of these suggest a trip-wait time elasticity value of
roughly -0.5: if wait time falls by 10%, the number of trips
increases by 5%
 We adjust this elasticity for other crossings to take into
account that a lower wait time has less of a trip deterrence
impact
 Evidence also suggests that the long-run elasticity value is
twice as much as in the short run
19
(Cont.)
• For international air travelers, we used an
opportunity cost approach:
– The value of time spent in passport inspection
queues is monetized and added to the value of an
air travel ticket
– The elasticity of demand for international air travel
with respect to price is applied to change in
monetized wait time to get change in number of
trips
20
TABLE 1-1. AVERAGE WAIT TIMES AND TRIP-WAIT TIME
ELASTICITIES FOR PASSENGER VEHICLES AT LAND COEs
Port
Calexico
El Paso
Laredo
Nogales
San Ysidro
Buffalo-Niagara
Falls
Blaine
Detroit
Average wait time per vehicle in
minutes in FY 2012
SENTRI/
Lane Type Regular
READY
NEXUS
Crossing
Calexico/East
41
16
1
Calexico/West
48
4
Ysleta
26
8
2
Paso Del Norte
28
11
Bridge of the Americas
33
14
Lincoln-Juarez
23
22
1
Convent St.
21
Mariposa
20
Deconcini
23
3
0
San Ysidro
74
47
7
Rainbow Bridge
7
0
Lewiston Bridge
14
Peace Bridge
7
0
1
Peace Arch
18
1
3
Pacific Highway
17
2
Windsor Tunnel
5
4
Ambassador Bridge
4
2
4
As percentage
of San Ysidro
value
Trip-Wait Time
Elasticities
Short Run Long Run
Regular
Regular
55%
66%
35%
38%
44%
31%
28%
27%
31%
100%
9%
19%
9%
24%
23%
6%
5%
-0.28
-0.33
-0.17
-0.19
-0.22
-0.16
-0.14
-0.13
-0.16
-0.50
-0.05
-0.10
-0.05
-0.12
-0.12
-0.03
-0.03
Regular
-0.55
-0.66
-0.35
-0.38
-0.44
-0.31
-0.28
-0.27
-0.31
-1.00
-0.09
-0.19
-0.09
-0.24
-0.23
-0.06
-0.0521
WAIT TIME-OFFICER ELASTICITIES FOR PASSENGER
VEHICLES AT LAND BORDER CROSSINGS
Time Period
Lane Type
Officers Added
Port
Calexico
El Paso
Laredo
Nogales
San Ysidro
Buffalo-Niagara Falls
Blaine
Detroit
FY 2012
Regular
+1
-1
-1
Most
Least
Most
Targeted 8 hours congested congested congested
Crossing
Calexico/East
-35%
74%
64%
Calexico/West
-16%
35%
21%
Ysleta
-37%
252%
62%
Paso Del Norte
-37%
252%
60%
Bridge of the Americas
Lincoln-Juarez
Convent St.
Mariposa
Deconcini
San Ysidro
Rainbow Bridge
Lewiston Bridge
Peace Bridge
Peace Arch
Pacific Highway
Windsor Tunnel
Ambassador Bridge
-31%
-28%
-48%
-55%
-46%
-8%
-33%
-38%
-39%
-49%
-62%
-73%
-63%
176%
76%
70%
N/A
170%
25%
4%
13%
30%
6%
54%
44%
25%
24%
37%
82%
91%
89%
10%
45%
54%
55%
76%
109%
96%
82%
22
Value of Time Saved for Existing Traffic
Time Period
Lane Type
Officers Added
Change on FY 2012 Level
Regular
+1 Officer
Targeted Eight Hours
Port
Calexico
El Paso
Laredo
Nogales
San Ysidro
Buffalo-Niagara Falls
Blaine
Detroit
Value of wait time
change, million $US
Crossing
Calexico/East
Calexico/West
Ysleta
Paso Del Norte
Bridge of the
Americas
Lincoln-Juarez
Convent St.
Mariposa
Deconcini
San Ysidro
Rainbow Bridge
Lewiston Bridge
Peace Bridge
Peace Arch
Pacific Highway
Windsor Tunnel
Most congested
US
nationals
and LPRs
Mexican or
Canadian
nationals
TOTAL
$1.6
$1.3
$0.9
$1.0
$0.3
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$1.9
$1.4
$1.1
$1.2
$1.4
$1.0
$0.7
$0.8
$0.7
$2.4
$0.4
$0.8
$0.5
$1.4
$1.2
$0.5
$0.3
$0.2
$0.1
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$0.8
$1.5
$0.9
$2.3
$1.9
$0.3
$1.8
$1.2
$0.8
$1.0
$0.9
$2.5
$1.3
$2.2
$1.4
$3.7
$3.1
$0.8
23
Results Under Exact Methodology
Figure ES-1
Monetary Value of Change in Hours Waited With Extra Officers:
3 Land Passenger Vehicle Crossings
$30
$25
San Ysidro
$15
Bridge of the Americas
Peace Arch
$10
$5
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
$0
1
Million $US
$20
Extra Officer Added
24
Wait Time at Airports
• Results depend on whether or not baggage
delivery is taken into account
• We develop lower and upper bounds for
waiting at airports:
– Lower bound ignores any wait times less than 30
minutes
– Upper bound includes all positive wait times
25
Overview of Truck Freight
Transportation Cost Changes
• One additional U.S. Customs and Border
Protection (CBP) officer added:
– to each of 12 land ports of entry (N. and S. borders)
– during the 8 most congested hours of each day
– for 153 total days a year
• By how much does wait time fall for trucks?
– traditional queuing theory methods ill-suited for
‘saturated’ queues (rush hour-like traffic flows)
• Assume queue is in equilibrium, examine impact
of opening additional booth/lane algebraically
– results align with San Ysidro ‘controlled experiment’
26
Changes in Wait Time for Trucks
Port of
Entry
Calexico, CA
El Paso, TX
Laredo, TX
Nogales, AZ
Otay Mesa, CA
Blaine, WA
Buffalo-Niagara
Falls, NY
Detroit, MI
Crossing
Annual Wait Time Change in Wait Time,
Truck
in Default +1 CBP Officer Case*
Volume
Case*
(FY 2012) (minutes)
percent
minutes
Calexico/East
Ysleta
Bridge of the Americas
Columbia Solidarity
World Trade Bridge
Mariposa
Otay Mesa
320,482
360,470
290,220
215,701
1,356,418
298,730
644,925
28.8
13.1
17.5
8.6
29.0
37.5
34.2
-20.0
-9.5
-10.2
-8.2
-20.0
-20.5
-13.0
-69%
-73%
-58%
-95%
-69%
-55%
-38%
Pacific Highway
Lewiston Bridge
Peace Bridge
Windsor Tunnel
Ambassador Bridge
343,396
309,365
625,651
39,186
1,425,757
16.4
8.1
11.2
4.6
7.0
-13.6
-5.8
-5.3
-4.6
-4.3
-83%
-72%
-47%
-100%
-61%
*During the 8 most-congested hours of each day, 153 total days per year.
27
Economic Value of Reduced
Wait Times for Trucks
• What is the monetary value of reduced wait
times for trucks?
• Out-of pocket expenses (transportation costs)
– driver wages
– diesel fuel
– other truck operating costs (e.g., maintenance, repairs,
depreciation, licensing)
• Opportunity cost of time
– foregone trucking activity
28
Flow Diagram for Truck Traffic at Border
(image from: Ojah et al., 2002)
29
Truck Transportation Costs
Cost
Category
Driver wages
Diesel fuel
All vehicle
operating
costs other
than fuel
Relates
to Wait
Time?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Unit Cost
Country (average)
(2012 US$)
U.S.
$20.86/hr
Canada
$23.05/hr
Mexico
U.S.
Canada
Mexico
$4.48/hr*
$4.03/gal
$4.94/gal
$3.42/gal
U.S.
$34.72/hr
Canada
$77.60/hr
Mexico
$11.37/hr*
Canada
$100/truck
Custom’s
No
broker fees
Mexico
$25/truck
Drayage cost No
Mexico
$154/truck
*Estimated based on relative GDPs per capita.
Source(s)
ATRI (2011); BLS (2012)
Statistics Canada (2012); Transport
Canada (2005)
World Bank (2013)
MyTravelCost.com
MDOT (2003); Boyer (1997); ATRI
(2011); Schrank et al. (2011)
Transport Canada (2005)
World Bank (2013)
Tom Gould - President, Tom Gould
Customs
Haralambides & Londono-Kent (2004)
30
Changes in Transport Costs for
Truck Freight
Port of
Entry
Calexico, CA
El Paso, TX
Laredo, TX
Nogales, AZ
Otay Mesa, CA
Blaine, WA
Buffalo-Niagara
Falls, NY
Detroit, MI
Crossing
Annual
Truck
Volume
(FY 2012)
Calexico/East
Ysleta
Bridge of the Americas
Columbia Solidarity
World Trade Bridge
Mariposa
Otay Mesa
320,482
360,470
290,220
215,701
1,356,418
298,730
644,925
Pacific Highway
Lewiston Bridge
Peace Bridge
Windsor Tunnel
Ambassador Bridge
Total =
343,396
309,365
625,651
39,186
1,425,757
6,230,301
Change in Truck
Transport Costs for
+1 CBP Officer*
Total
Percent
(all trucks)
-$0.81 M
-0.131%
-$0.37 M
-0.053%
-$0.39 M
-0.070%
-$0.34 M
-0.083%
-$2.74 M
-0.105%
-$0.83 M
-0.145%
-$0.94 M
-0.076%
-$1.81 M
-$0.37 M
-$1.06 M
-$0.09 M
-$1.92 M
-$11.67 M
*Working the 8 most-congested hours of each day, 153 total days per year.
-0.252%
-0.057%
-0.181%
-0.109%
-0.065%
n.a.
31
Results: U.S. GDP and Employment
Impacts (+1 CBP Officer)*
Port of Entry
Calexico, CA
Change in
truck
transport
cost
(percent)
Crossing
Change in
U.S.
Employment
(jobs)
Change in
U.S. GDP
(2011 $US
million)
Change in
Canada
GDP
(2011 $US
million)
Change in
Mexico
GDP
(2011 $US
million)
Southern Border
Northern Border
Calexico/East
-0.13%
2.5
0.246
-0.059
0.966
Ysleta
-0.05%
1.0
0.104
-0.023
0.391
Bridge of the Americas
-0.07%
1.3
0.125
-0.032
0.515
Columbia Solidarity
-0.08%
1.5
0.152
-0.037
0.611
World Trade Bridge
-0.11%
1.9
0.193
-0.047
0.774
Nogales, AZ
Mariposa
-0.15%
2.8
0.276
-0.066
1.068
Otay Mesa, CA
Otay Mesa
-0.08%
1.5
0.152
-0.035
0.557
Blaine, WA
Pacific Highway
-0.25%
8.1
0.790
3.990
-0.030
Buffalo-Niagara
Falls, NY
Lewiston Bridge
-0.06%
1.9
0.182
0.902
-0.007
Peace Bridge
-0.08%
2.6
0.248
1.283
-0.009
Windsor Tunnel
-0.11%
3.5
0.343
1.731
-0.013
Ambassador Bridge
-0.07%
2.0
0.195
1.028
-0.008
-
30.6
3.005
8.634
4.815
El Paso, TX
Laredo, TX
Detroit, MI
Totals
*Working the 8 most-congested hours of each day, 153 total days per year.
32
CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts
of Reduced Freight Costs
• Definition of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis:
multi-market model of the behavioral response of
individual producers & consumers to changes in prices,
policies & external shocks, within the limits of capital,
labor & natural resources
• Maintains capabilities of I-O analysis (disaggregated
sectoral representation, consideration of all inputs &
economic interdependence) & overcomes limitations
• Widely used in international trade analysis
• Meets most of our modeling needs
33
The GTAP Model
• Developed by ITC and WTO
•
Multi-region, multi-sector CGE model
- Consists of 129 regions and 57 sectors
- For this study aggregate to 4 regions & 57 sectors
• Standard GTAP model does not allow for substitution
between different modes of transport
- Incorporated modal substitution for air, water & land
34
Example Results: Blaine POE -- U.S.
GDP Impacts of +1 CBP Officer
Regions
Exports
(percent)
Imports
(percent)
Trade balance
($US million)
GDP
($US million)
United States
0.0011
0.0016
-4.493
0.790
Canada
0.0026
0.0114
-10.794
3.990
Mexico
0.0002
-0.0004
0.547
-0.030
Rest of World
0.0000
-0.0002
17.400
-4.741
• +1 CBP Officer reduces Transport Costs by 0.25%
• GDP increases in the U.S. and Canada, while it declines
in Mexico and Rest of the World.
• U.S. GDP increases because imported intermediate
goods are cheaper => lowers price of U.S. exports
35
Economic Impact Results (+1 Case)
GDP Impacts of Adding One CBP Officer at Each of 17 Land Passenger POEs
(million 2011$)
Port
Calexico
El Paso
Laredo
Nogales
San Ysidro
Buffalo-Niagara Falls
Blaine
Detroit
Total
Crossing
Calexico/East
Calexico/West
Ysleta
Paso Del Norte
Bridge of the Americas
Lincoln-Juarez
Convent St.
Mariposa
Deconcini
San Ysidro*
Rainbow Bridge
Lewiston Bridge
Peace Bridge
Peace Arch
Pacific Highway
Windsor Tunnel*
Ambassador Bridge*
Port Region
$4.5
3.1
4.6
4.9
7.6
4.3
2.8
2.3
2.2
-1.1
2.1
3.8
2.2
4.4
3.8
-0.9
-0.8
$49.7
*Based on FY12 CBP data that 76% of travelers are US residents
Rest of the U.S.
$2.8
1.4
3.2
3.4
5.2
2.4
1.6
2.0
1.9
-4.3
0.6
1.1
0.6
-3.7
-3.1
-1.5
-1.4
$12.1
U.S. Total
$7.3
4.5
7.7
8.3
12.8
6.7
4.3
4.3
4.1
-5.4
2.7
4.9
2.9
0.7
0.6
-2.3
-2.3
$61.8
36
Economic Impact Results (+1 Case)
Summary of Economic Impacts from Adding One CBP Officer
at Each of 17 U.S. Passenger Land POEs
Output
Impacts
(M $)
Region
All 8 POE Regions
Rest of the U.S.
U.S. Total
Impacts of Increased Spending by
Canadians/Mexicans
Impacts of Reduced Spending by
Americans
Net Impacts
Impacts of Increased Spending by
Canadians/Mexicans
Impacts of Reduced Spending by
Americans
Net Impacts
Impacts of Increased Spending by
Canadians/Mexicans
Impacts of Reduced Spending by
Americans
Net Impacts
GDP
Employment
Impacts
Impacts
(M $)
(jobs)
145.5
79.4
1,488
-51.3
94.1
-29.7
49.7
-499
990
136.4
72.6
881
-108.9
27.5
-60.5
12.1
-818
64
281.9
152.0
2,370
-160.2
121.6
-90.2
61.8
-1,316
1,053
37
SUMMARY OF ALL ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Time value opportunity
costs for U.S. residents
Time value opportunity
for Canadian and Mexican
Ground Passenger Travel
residents
Net impact on port region
and U.S. GDP and
employment
Time value opportunity
for U.S. truckers
Time value opportunity
for Canadian and Mexican
truckers
Truck Freight
Transportation
Net impact on U.S. GDP
and employment
Net impacts on the
Canadian and Mexican
economies
Time value opportunity
for U.S. residents
Air Passenger Travel
Time value opportunity
for foreign travelers
Net impact on U.S. GDP
and employment
TOTAL NON-U.S.
TOTAL U.S.
n.a. – not applicable; n.c. – not calculatedTOTAL WORLD
GDP
(million 2011$)
Time Value
Opportunity Cost
(million 2011$)
Employment (jobs)
n.a.
$17.0
n.a.
n.a.
$10.2
n.a.
$61.8
n.a.
1,053
n.a.
n.c.
n.a.
n.a.
$29.1
n.a.
$3.0
n.a.
31
$13.4
n.a.
n.c.
n.a.
$2.5-9.0
n.a.
n.a.
$6.1-12.2
n.a.
$4.2-11.8
n.a.
37-81
n.a.
$69.0-76.6
n.a.
$45.4-51.5
$19.5-26.0
$64.9-77.5
n.a.
1,084-1,165
n.a.
38
Summary Results of Unit Staffing Changes
at 17 passenger land crossings, 12 freight crossings, and 14 passport
inspection sites at 4 major passenger airports -- total of 43 POEs
• Impacts on the U.S. economy:
- $69-77 million increase in Gross Domestic Product
- $20-26 million in time value opportunity cost savings
- 1,084-1,165 annual jobs added
• Impacts on the global economy :
- $45-52 million in time value opportunity cost savings
• Average impact per CBP staff member added:
- $1.6-1.8 million increase in U.S. GDP
- Time value opportunity cost savings:
- $0.5-0.6 million for U.S. residents
- $1.5-1.8 million for U.S. and non-U.S. residents
- 25-27 jobs in U.S.
- These results are underestimates
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Study Impacts
• Cited in successful CBP congressional
appropriation request
• Briefed to other stakeholders (e.g. Canadian
Embassy)
• Led to a phase II that focused on airports and
refined methodology
– This has just been publicly released
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Conclusions
• Conducted successful national & regional econ
impact studies of CBP officer deployment
• Developed analytical capabilities to support
economics-based decision-making on the topic
– Extensive insight into CBP data
– Close-working relationship with CBP
– Advanced SOA of OR/Econometric/Simulation Models
• Models can be a basis for future analysis of:
– Optimal staffing deployment
– Investments in personnel, infrastructure & technology
– Impact on risks & law enforcement outcomes
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Backup Slides
Additional Information
GTAP Transport Cost Reduction
Scenario
• In the GTAP model, transportation costs per unit
are endogenously determined.
• A transport cost reduction scenario can be
implemented by exogenizing and perturbing the
corresponding transportation price variables:
- Price of composite transport services by commodity,
source and destination
- Price of global transport services by mode
• Transport cost variable is exogenized by swapping
it with the variable representing the change in
technology.
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Summary of Impacts of Freight
Transportation Cost Changes
• Reduction in transport costs of U.S. imports from
Canada or Mexico makes them more competitive.
• However, most of the imported commodities are
intermediate goods used in the U.S. production
sectors, which makes U.S. exports more competitive
globally.
• The net effect on the U.S. economy is the
combination of these positive and negative impacts.
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Future Research
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Economic impact analysis of changes in border infrastructure
Risk analysis studies related to the effect of lower wait times on security
Quantification of the marginal benefits and costs of adding or subtracting
more than one primary inspection officer at a crossing.
Optimization analysis of staff deployment across crossings.
Evaluation of staffing requirements to achieve a standard of wait time never
to exceed 30 minutes at any crossing
Controlled experiments at border crossings to provide more extensive results
on wait time-booth and trip demand elasticities
More formal analysis of the July 2012 experiment at San Ysidro
Completion of methodology for analyzing processing of air travelers in terms
of all flights in a cluster, intermingling of passengers, etc.
Study of relationship between congestion, staffing & enforcement outcomes
Development of a simulation model that CBP can use to analyze scenarios
involving changes in staffing levels, traffic levels, etc.
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