Dr. Baron`s Presentation

The Changing Face of
Automotive Manufacturing
Dr. Jay Baron
President
Center for Automotive Research (CAR)
CAR is an independent, not-for-profit organization with research activities
in manufacturing, economics, forecasting and advanced energy
CAR was formerly OSAT with a 25-year history at the Univ. of Michigan
prior to spinning off and recently becoming independent.
Economics &
Business Group
Advanced
Transportation
Energy
Conferences
Forums
Networks
Manufacturing
Systems
Forecasting
Group
Mission
“….. To assist the global automotive
industry’s competitiveness and
technological advancement through
unbiased research and support …..”
• Dr. David Cole, Chairman, Auto Industry Analyst
• Dr. Jay Baron, President, Sheet Metal Functional Build Research - 15 years
2
SME March 2005
Outline
A few Macro Observations
Low Volume Manufacturing
– Flexibility
– Tools
Broken Business Model: Tool and Die Sector
Lean is Not Good Enough
– Functional build & door study
Advanced Materials
3
SME March 2005
Three World Centers?
4
SME March 2005
1998-2003 Global Sales Change
1998-2003 Global Production Change
North
North
America America
1.6 million 230,000
Western Western
Europe Europe
162,000 1.0 million
Eastern Eastern
Europe Europe
188,000 185,000
Asia-Pacific
4.3 million
Middle Middle
East
East
413,000 699,000
Asia-Pacific
5.8 million
Source: Automotive News 2000, 2004 Market Data Books
5
SME March 2005
Vehicle Nameplates Up 37%
in Just Last 10 Years
400
350
300
300
250
200
150
100
50
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
0
Source: Ward's Automotive Yearbook 1950-2003 CSM Worldwide
6
SME March 2005
2004
Honda
Nissan
Toyota
DCX
Ford
GM
72
Capital Cost
$
7
SME March 2005
67
64
This Does Not Work . . .
1983
Chevrolet
Oldsmobile
Buick
Pontiac
8
SME March 2005
Cross Utility Vehicle (CUV)
The Old CUV
The New CUV
9
SME March 2005
Nissan Murano
Bigger and Stronger Trucks
10
SME March 2005
Powertrain Revolution
Hybrids
Fuel cells
Diesels
11
SME March 2005
Why is LVVP Important?
Fewer Platforms,
More Nameplates
More Derivatives
(lower investment)
Lower Volumes
Fewer Sales per Nameplate
(average 40,000)
More Flexibility
(to fill production)
Low Volume Tools
Strategic Suppliers
LVVP
12
SME March 2005
– Engineering
– production
Low Volume & Flexibility
Filling Plant Capacity a Key Goal!
(Can’t make money below 90% utilization)
100 9.0
92
80
5.0
60
60
40
-5.0
2004 YTD
2002
2000
Year
Cap. Util.
Profits
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
SME March 2005
-1.4 0.0
-5.4
1984
1982
1980
1978
Source: Federal Reserve, U.SDOC/BEA
14
66
-4.3
20
0
83 10.0
-10.0
Profits $ Bil.
Capacity Utilization
U.S. Automotive
Capacity Utilization and Profits
1978 – 2004
Model mix (different platforms)
Model variants (derivatives)
Capacity expandability
(& contraction)
Launch speed
Quality
Lansing Grand River, Chicago Assembly, Rouge, etc.
Ford Flexibility (Mr. Krygier)
Commitment of 75% flexible body shops by 2010
Standard cells/modules, off-the-shelf
– 300 standard components
– 16 standard cells
Chicago Assembly Plant (8/2004)
– 8 models/2 platforms
Ford Five Hundred, Freestyle, Mercury Montego
(later Mercury crossover)
Flexible processes
– Laser welding
– In-line CMMs
Lower press tooling costs: international sources
16
SME March 2005
ASC Partnership Business Model
17
SME March 2005
GM’s New Kappa Platform
Pontiac Solstice
Hydroformed rail
Sheet hydroformed panels
Flexible assembly
18
SME March 2005
Saturn Sky
Three Technology Approaches to Flexibility
Toyota Pallet Approach
Honda Robotic Tooling
Nissan Flexible Tooling
Evolved from FBL
Global Body Line can
frame from inside out
Manual for LVVP
8 derivatives possible
High accuracy robots
used for tooling with
customized “feeder lines”.
Rigorous product/process
standardization
worldwide.
Nissan Integrated
Manufacturing System
(NIMS) – fishbone
architecture
8 body styles from 4
platforms
flexible
19
SME March 2005
Japan Strategy: Flexible Plants and Derivatives
Manufacturer
Nameplate
Platform
Plant
Source
Country
Car/Truck
CY2004
Ford (Mazda)
Roadster
J07
Ujina (U)
Japan
Car
25,144
Honda
S2000
SSM
Suzuka J-Line
Japan
Car
6,954
Renault/Nissan
Fairlady Z Roadster
FR-L
Tochigi
Japan
Car
11,882
Renault/Nissan
FX35/FX45
FR-L
Nissan Shatai
Japan
Truck
36,426
Renault/Nissan
Fairlady Z
FR-L
Tochigi
Japan
Car
23,578
Toyota
IS
620N/740N
Tahara
Japan
Car
0
Toyota
LS
LS
Tahara
Japan
Car
37,904
Toyota
SC
MA
Kanto Higashi Fuji
Japan
Car
10,827
Toyota
ist
NBC-1
Takaoka
Japan
Car
0
Toyota
Succeed
NBC-1
Kyoto
Japan
Car
23,966
Toyota
Raum
NBC-1
Central Automotive
Japan
Car
40,050
Toyota
xA
NBC-1
Takaoka
Japan
Car
29,836
Toyota
bB
NBC-1
Central Automotive
Japan
Car
11,273
Toyota
bB
NBC-1
Takaoka
Japan
Car
26,938
Toyota
Boon
NBC-1
Ikeda #2
Japan
Car
13,884
Toyota
Land Cruiser 70
NU/029N/152N
Yoshiwara
Japan
Truck
31,040
Toyota
LX
NU/029N/152N
Yoshiwara
Japan
Truck
10,863
Source: CSM Worldwide, others
20
SME March 2005
1 platform, 6 nameplates, 4 plants!
Detroit Business Climate
Can’t make money below 80%-90%
utilization anymore.
Margins are low and will stay that way.
Firms will compete through cutting capital
spending.
(Expect a shake-out; current path is not
sustainable)
Strategic supply-chain relationships
increasingly important.
21
SME March 2005
Low Volume Tooling
Low Volume Challenge for Tools
Low Volume / High Volume Tradeoff
Total Cost $
Variable (piece cost)
investment cost
Volume
23
SME March 2005
Tools: Match Standard to Production Volume
May requires special production methods
“Soft”
dies
reinforced
“Heavy”
dies made
leaner
“Opportunity” for
new processes
24
SME March 2005
Some Low-Volume Technologies
Shell Tooling
Lean Dies
Liquid Impact
Forming
Direct Metal
Deposition
Tube Hydroforming
Spray Metal
Roll Forming
Flexible Assembly
Tools
Sheet Hydroforming
Aluminum Molds
Laminated Tools
25
SME March 2005
Quick Plastic Forming
Hydroforming (Sheet)
Process steps: Form – Trim/Pierce – Restrike/Flange
Cycle time in FMFS is about 45 seconds
Flexible Multi-Forming System
Station 3
Restrike/Flange
26
SME March 2005
Station 2
Trim/Pierce
Station 1
Forming
Laminate Dies
Laminate tools are built by producing and stacking two
dimensional sections of sheet metal
–
–
–
–
27
SME March 2005
Prepare math data (3D model) of mold/die
Laser cut sheet metal parts
Stack and join parts
Machine surface to net shape, if needed
Tool and Die Industry Sector
The Old Business Model is Broken
28
SME March 2005
T&D Employment Trends 1995-2002
(SIC 3544 & 3545: tooling, dies, Jigs, fixtures, gages, etc.)
E m ploym ent (thousands)
Michigan Tool and Die Industry Employment
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
1995
0
1996
12
1997
24
1998
36
1999
48
Month
29
SME March 2005
2000
60
2001
72
2002
84
2003
96
Different Points of View
T&D Suppliers
Overcapacity
Antagonistic relationship:
OEM-Supplier
On-line bidding is counter
productive, and noncollaborative
Big-3 Customers
Supplier costs are too
high
Craftsmanship oriented
instead of synchronous
Low-ball initial price and
anticipate ECOs
Not strategic - do not
know their costs
30
SME March 2005
Results
Recent On-Line Bidding
Projected prices
include profit –
roughly 7%
Avg. Projected Price = $3.0M
Projected
Price
[=100%]
100%
80%
60%
Final Bid
[in % of
Projected
Price]
40%
20%
Fe
nd
er
D
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an
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Pa
ne
ls
0%
Average
OEM's savings
is 29%.
Lowest bids are from Asian-based companies.
Lowest cost bidder does not necessary receive the job.
May source to North American shop matching price.
N.A. shops sometimes have to finalize the tools from overseas.
31
SME March 2005
Die Engineering and Construction
Program management
Product design support
EXPANDED
Prototype
Die design & engineering (CAD/CAE)
Programming (CAM)
Patterns & castings
Machining
Construction/Assembly
Tryout and Buyoff
BASIC
Functional build
Launch support
32
SME March 2005
Intellectual Content
Intellectual Content
United Tooling Coalition:
System Cost Savings Opportunities
– Workload balancing
engineering &
manufacturing
– Group purchasing
– Project management
– Functional build
– International
partnerships
– Sharing of best practices
33
SME March 2005
A New Business Model: United Tooling Coalition
(www.toolingcoalition.com)
Services
34
Company
City
Contact Name
Phone
Accu-Mold
Autodie International
Enterprise Tool & Die
Lansing Tool & Engineering
Master Precision Molds
Northwest Tool & Die
Paragon Die & Engineering
Precise Engineering
Richard Tool & Die
Schmald Tool & Die
Trimline Tool
Complete Design Service
Detail Technologies
Miller Tool & Die
Precision Mold & Engineering
Portage
Grand Rapids
Grandville
Lansing
Greenville
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
Lowell
New Hudson
Burton
Grandville
Flint
Wyoming
Jackson
Benton Harbor
Mr. David Martin
Mr. Tom Williams
Mr. John Szot
Mr. Doug Groom
Mr. Steve Drake
Mr. Tim VanderKlok
Mr. Robert Spinetto
Mr. Pat Quinlan
Mr. Steven Rowe
Ms. Laurie Moncrieff
Mr. Eric Sattler
Mr. James Murray
Mr. Bryan Herrington
Mr. Philip G. Miller
Mr. James Monroe
(269) 323-0388
(616) 356-1497
(616) 538-0920
(517) 372-2550
(616) 754-5483
(616) 453-8286
(616) 949-2220
(616) 897-8977
(248) 486-0900
(810) 743-1600
(616) 532-4800
(810) 733-3405
(616) 261-1313
(517) 782-0347
(269) 925-2460
SME March 2005
Transfer & Prog.
Line Dies Dies
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Molds
x
x
x
x
x
Prototyping Engineering
x
x
x
x
x
x
Tool design services
Machining services
Automation & integration equipment
Die cast dies and molds
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Lean (“Cheap”) Dies
How do we get cheap dies that work?
“International” Tooling Model
– Few complex tools made conventionally (mostly local).
– Engineering, say in India
(50% savings = 10% tool savings).
– 75% tools machined and assembled in LCC (60% savings).
– Tool engineering changes implemented locally.
– Tools validated and launched with local support.
Net overall savings on BIW tooling: 40% to 50%.
LCC = Low Cost Country (India, China, E. Europe, etc.)
35
SME March 2005
Lean is not good enough
You need to be lean and smart
Dimensional Build-up
Measurement Data
Good Parts
Good Assemblies
Good Performance
(customer)
37
SME March 2005
Chronic Sheet Metal Challenges
Dies are always late.
Dies are tried out twice:
at the tryout source and again at the home line.
Biggest sheet metal challenge:
Achieving Cpk > 1.33 on all major checkpoints.
(< 10% meet all original Cpk criteria !)
50% of sheet metal parts may never pass PPAP.
38
SME March 2005
Are Points in Specification
(in Stamping) Really Necessary?
Case Example:
– Only 10% of dimensions failing Cpk presented build problems
– most component problems are not identified until assembly
This is why we do
functional build !
500 Component Dimensions
False alarms
45% Fail Cpk
55% Pass Cpk
How many false alarms
were corrected?
(mean not variation problems)
90% No Build
Problem
39
SME March 2005
No alarms
10% (22)
Build Problems
40 Build
Problems Not
Identified in
Cpk Evaluations
Functional Build
Manufacturing focuses on achieving a functional
end-product (meeting all requirements).
This often means compromising several basic
engineering principles, particularly in sheet
metal processes.
Dimensionally, this often means that check
points can be accepted out of specification if it
does not adversely affect final quality.
40
SME March 2005
Good Car! Customer
Complaints
(JDP IQS)
Door
Quality
(median Cpk)
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
Trans
Eur
Eur
Trans
NA
Eur
NA
NA
NA
Eur
Trans
Trans
NA
NA
Trans
Trans
Trans
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Eur
NA
Significant Quality
Improvement
Do Good
Doors Produce High
TransCustomer Satisfaction?
Eur
0.0
1.0
1.33
2.0
3.0
Quality
Deterioration
0
5
Wind Noise
41
SME March 2005
10
Water Leak
15
20
Gaps/Poor Fit
Door Assembly Quality
Do Good Doors Produce High Customer Satisfaction ??
Best
13
Door
Rank
11
(Median
Cpk)
9
7
5
3
Worst 1
Estimated
Costs
Europe
Japan
high
13
11
Customer
Rank
9 (JDP IQS
low/med
CPK=1.33
North
America
Score)
7
5
medium
3
1
North American companies struggle to get high customer
satisfaction with low cost.
42
SME March 2005
Dimensional Build-up
Measurement Data
Good Parts
Good Assemblies
Good Performance
43
SME March 2005
Digital Body Development System
CAD
Hundreds of Tool Design & Construction Suppliers
Tools
Prototype
Tooling Tryout
at Die Source
Tooling Tryout
at Home Line
Design
Scanned Part and Tooling Data
CAD
Candidate
Changes
Digital Body
Development
System
Change Cost
Estimation
Data Preparation and
Repository Module
Solution Generation and
Evaluation
Problem Identification and
Ranking
Graphical Feedback
44
SME March 2005
Virtual Assembly and
Simulation Engine
Digital Body Development System
Participating Companies
45
SME March 2005
Altarum
Ford Motor Company
American Tooling
Center
General Motors
Atlas Tool
Riviera Tool
Autodie International
Sekely Industries
CogniTens
Thunder Bay Mfg
ComauPICO
University of Michigan
EDS
Wayne State University
Perceptron
Advanced Materials
Occupant Safety (Safety Cage)
Honda Odyssey
48
SME March 2005
Material War
Steel vs. Aluminum
Steel
Pro
– Strong
– Incumbant
– AHSS Advancements
Con
– Heavy
– Corrosive
– Image
49
SME March 2005
Aluminum
Pro
– Lightweight
– Non-corrosive
– Good for closures
Con
– Expensive
– Difficult to form
– Hard to weld
Volvo XC90 Body Structure
50
SME March 2005
Auto World — 2004+
Supply >> Demand
– Continued cost pressures
– Low volume
Consolidation Continues:
Strategic Partnerships
Smart Companies Have a Chance
– Many new technologies (materials, designs, etc.)
– Lean is not good enough: lean + smart
Global Economy
– Manufacturing
– Tooling and Engineering
The Consumer Wins
51
SME March 2005
Low Volume Body Shop = 1 ??
End
52
SME March 2005