Mega-Pastures new: farming`s technological revolution

PASTURES NEW: FARMING’S TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION
The world will have 1.5 billion more mouths to feed
in little over 30 years’ time – a daunting prospect for
an agricultural industry already battling with the
effects of climate change. But armed with a raft of new
technologies, farmers worldwide could be about to
usher in a new green revolution in food production.
There was little in its title to suggest it would haunt humanity for
more than 200 years. Yet the predictions contained in Thomas
Malthus’s An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798 have
been a persistent source of alarm.
Establishing an English tradition in grim forecast-making, the
Anglican clergyman warned that the only way our over-inhabited
planet could avoid “gigantic famine” would be through “war,
pestilence, epidemics and plague”.
The Malthusian nightmare has been the subject of fierce debate
across the agricultural industry ever since, and has recently taken
on even greater prominence as the world population approaches
the 7.5 billion mark.
Even though the rate of population growth is slowing, it’s still
predicted that there will be around 9 billion people inhabiting our
planet by 2050. But having 1.5 billion more mouths to feed will not be
the only problem. Appetites will also be more voracious. With people
in emerging markets becoming richer, their demands are sure to
exact a heavy toll on the food industry. The consultancy firm McKinsey
estimates that, in China and India alone, about 1.1 billion people will
have joined middle class income groups between 2005 and 2025.
That could lead to a huge increase in meat consumption and an
extraordinary expansion in demand for grazing pastures and animal
feedstock, which would have devastating consequences for other
parts of the food chain.
Sources: UN DESA, Oxfam, The Stern Review on the Economics of
Climate Change, International Water Management Institute, IFAD
A changing climate
Complicating matters further for the farming sector is climate change.
The US government’s Environmental Protection Agency says
that warmer temperatures may make crops grow more quickly,
and that for grains such as wheat or barley, faster growth will
reduce the time that seeds have to mature, resulting in significantly
smaller yields.
Pastureland can also be adversely affected by an increase in carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, meaning farmers would have to produce
more crops to get the same nutritional benefits for their animals. In
addition, livestock farmers are fearful of the impact of unusually hot
weather, which can reduce an animal’s ability to fight disease, threaten
fertility and cause drastic reductions in milk production. In extreme
cases, heat stress kills – several US states have reported losses of more
than 5,000 animals from a single heatwave.
No-one knows exactly how far away we are from the Malthusian
scenario, but the strains on the planet’s ability to feed its inhabitants
are already beginning to show.
As a result, there is general agreement throughout the agricultural
industry that food production is in need of a drastic overhaul.
Simple adaptation
One way farmers have responded to this challenge has been to
grow different crops. Food producers can change the types of crops
they grow, the breeds of animals they farm and the fish they catch,
or they can diversify into new products that are more tolerant of the
changing climatic conditions.
Over the past 15 years, for instance, the British wine industry has
seen consistent growth, producing a record-breaking 6.3 million
bottles in 2014, while Tregothnan in Cornwall is home to the UK’s
first tea plantation.
In the wetlands of Indonesia, meanwhile, proposals have been
submitted to change the traditional rice, livestock and fishing-based
food industry to the more profitable manufacture of organic fertilisers,
biofuels and fermented food and drink. These efforts could provide
a template for dealing with the unproductive agricultural conditions
triggered by climate change.
Nevertheless, while crop adaptation can be part of the solution
it can only go so far in placing the world’s food stocks on a more
sustainable footing. New technologies will have a key role to play.
Agrochemical innovation
The agrochemical sector is likely to be central to efforts to ensure
the world’s food supply remains abundant. Here, recent research
has focused on making more efficient use of fertilisers.
Traditional nitrogen fertilisers – which revolutionised agriculture
in the first half of the 20th century – have always tended to break
down quickly when they get wet so that instead of promoting plant
growth, much of the nitrogen that the fertiliser contains runs off
uselessly as nitrates.
Now, researchers are focusing on slow-release products using
nitrification inhibitors or polymer coatings to slow this breakdown, even
in the wettest conditions, so that the fertilisers release a consistent
supply of nitrogen.
“There’s a strong emphasis on minimising energy use in producing
fertilisers – in recycling phosphorus that’s already in the system, for
instance, rather than mining it from the ground,” explains Professor
Keith Goulding, sustainable soil research fellow at Rothamsted Research,
a UK-based agricultural research institute. “Phosphorous is stripped
out from waste water and sewage systems and reused as fertiliser
on the soil.”
There have also been big advances in the production of organic
bio-stimulants, which use naturally-occurring chemicals such as those
in seaweed to promote leaf and root growth during the first 30 days
of a crop’s life. Rather than directly providing a crop with nutrients
or protecting it from pests and disease, these substances encourage
strong growth to produce a healthy plant that is resistant to stress.
“There’s a growing realisation that the industry can’t just keep producing
more and more crop-protection products. Pests and diseases are
becoming increasingly resistant, and there are growing fears about
contamination,” says David Booty, technical development manager
for Omex, the international fertiliser and plant nutrient manufacturer.
“There is a lot more interest now – both commercially and from the
scientific community – in looking at how we can continue to develop
ways in which we can help plants to help themselves.”
Source: Compiled by mega
21st century farming – the rise of precision agriculture
But technological progress aimed at making the agricultural industry
more productive goes beyond developing hardier plants. Right
through the food production process, from soil preparation to
planting to harvesting, storage and transportation, new technologies
will dramatically improve efficiency, enabling farmers to respond
to the new challenges they face. This will go a long way towards
reducing food waste – a scourge of the agricultural industry.
According to the World Bank, the amount of edible food lost due
to poor crop management, storage, processing and transportation
amounts to about USD750 billion a year, which is more that the GDP
of Switzerland.
Aerial and satellite imagery can help. Increasingly such technology is used
to monitor changes in plant mortality and the growth of invasive species
so that farmers can move quickly and efficiently to tackle new threats.
Meanwhile, new generations of remote electronic sensors offer realtime information about the condition of crops, both in the field and in
storage, enabling producers to apply water and fertilisers with precision
as crops are growing, and monitor them as they await distribution.
Among the pioneers in this field is US firm Trimble, which has
developed a range of software applications that can provide farmers
with a detailed analysis of soil, weeds and pests.
Digital technology can also help in the breeding of livestock.
Software company Cojengo, for instance has developed a mobile app
that allows farm workers to carry out on-the-spot medical examinations
of their livestock, enabling them to diagnose and cure illnesses quickly
and prevent diseases spreading from one animal to another.
Research is also already under way into the development of agricultural
robots, or agbots, which will eventually offer complete robotic and
automated processes such as ploughing, fruit picking and harvesting.
Already, GPS technology means it is possible to plough a field without
a driver in the cab. Autonomous Tractor (autonomoustractor.com), a
US robotics and engineering company, expects to have a cab-less
robotic tractor within the next 12 months. The French company Wall-Ye
(wall-ye.com) already has agricultural robots on the market, including
a pruning robot for use in vineyards.
Sensors in farm and delivery vehicles will not only inform operators
of likely faults and maintenance requirements, but also provide fully
automated inter-vehicle communication so that delivery fleets can
operate at maximum efficiency.
By maximising the return in suboptimal conditions and improving
storage and transportation, these technologies will be an important
part of the response to climate change and population growth.
The search for sustainable crop production
Tackling agricultural problems with scientific research lies at the heart of
the approach taken by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research
Council (BBSRC), which administers sustainable crop production research
for the Sustainable Crop Production for International Development
(SCPRID) programme.
More than 40 international research organisations are involved
in the £16 million initiative, which is funded with aid from the UK
government and by the Indian government, BBSRC and The Bill
and Melinda Gates Foundation.
There are currently 11 separate projects in the SCPRID programme,
each with at least one partner in the UK and one in a developing
country. They aim to benefit the poor in developing countries,
particularly smallholders, and to enhance the scientific capabilities
of those nations.
The programme, which brings together 16 partner countries, aims
to understand and counter the effects of drought, flooding, pests
and diseases, and poor soils on major food crop production. Its work
includes projects to control virus attacks on bean crops, develop
drought-resistant rice and protect wheat from yellow and black rust
disease, which can destroy an entire crop.
“The projects focus on both the abiotic and biotic stresses that food
crops are subject to in the developing world – that’s problems such
as drought and flooding, and also living threats to crops such as pests,
weeds and diseases,” says Program Manager Amanda Read.
“They are currently about three years into a five-year programme, so
they should be reporting their results sometime in 2018. Most of them
are completing their field research now and moving into the analysis
stage of the project so they’re all very much on target.”
This is the third of four programmes of research into agriculture in
developing countries that the BBSRC has administered, and funded with
aid from donors. The second one, into combating infectious diseases in
livestock, is expected to produce its final report towards the end of 2015.
the big ideas shaping all our futures
In partnership with Pictet Asset Management
pioneers in thematic investments since 1995