Evolution Of Mobile Handsets And The Impact Of Smartphones

Evolution Of Mobile Handsets And The Impact Of Smartphones

Lecture Document
Evolution of Mobile Handsets and
the Impact of Smartphones
February 2012
Yoko Miyashita
InfoCom Research, Inc.
Today’s Lecture Outline
Mobile handset history outlook:
Handsets have changing dramatically especially in this decade.
 Industry structure is changing after the growing smartphone
populality
 Handset development trend is also changing with the smartphone
What are the future phones like???
2
Feature Phone vs. Smartphone
OR Feature phone?
Smartphone?
3
Mobile Handset Market Overview
4
Global Mobile Subscriber Number & Penetration History
► 5.4 billion mobile phone subscribers and 77% of mobile penetration, globally
（in million）
6,000
80%
Subscriber Number
Net increase
5,000
70%
Penetration Rate
60%
50%
40%
3,000
30%
2,000
20%
1,000
10%
0
12/1995
0%
12/2000
Source: US Census Bureau, Informa and 4G Americas. As of September, 2011
12/2005
5
12/2010
Penetration
Subscribers
4,000
Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate by Region
■ As of December2010
※Source: Informa and US Cencer Bureau
6
140%
120%
89.8%
100%
80%
60%
53.1%
40%
538
287
20%
0%
アフリカ
Africa
中東
Middle
East
Penetration
Subscriber
携
帯
電
話
加
入
者
数
Penetration
MILLION
2,800
2,624
129.3%
2,700
127.0%
携帯電話加入者数
普及率
Subscriber
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
95.3%
95.2%
2,000
1,900
1,800
96.1%
1,700
1,600
64.4%
69.6%
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
859
900
800
700
569
531
511
600
500
328
400
300
121
200
100
0
アジア太平洋
（中国）
（日本）
北米
中南米
西欧
東欧
East
West
China
South
North
Japan
Asia
America America Europe Europe
Pacific
普
及
率
Subscriber Number by Technology
Technology based subscriber share: Global
UMTS
12.6%
CDMA
9.5%
Technology
Others
その他
0.9%
GSM
GSM
77.0%
【Unit: Million】
Subscriber Market
share
4,300
77.0%
UMTS(W-CDMA)-HSPA
692
12.6%
CDMA
521
9.5%
46
0.9%
Others
（Analog、iDEN、PDC、TDSCDMA、TDMA）
Data: As of March 2011
※Source: 4G Americas
7
Handset Market Structure
One of the best selling phone in history
Market Structure
Price range and its volume
High-end/
Smartphone
Nokia 1100
←Price：
$ 800～
• Low end
• Black-white display
• 86 gram
• SMS
• Color variation
Middle range
←Price：
$ 300～
Low End
including ultra low end
• Target: emerging
market
※NO Internet
NO Camera
←Price：
$ 20-50
8
Mobile Handset Share by Vendor
Mobile Handset Shipment Based Vender Share 【2011.2Q(April to June)】
Motorola
3.0%
Others
22.9%
Nokia
24.7%
Vendor
Samsung
20.7%
Nokia
Samsung
LG
Apple
ZTE
Huawei
RIM
HTC
Motorola
Others
Total
HTC
3.3%
RIM
3.5%
Huawei
3.9%
ZTE
5.5%
Apple
5.7%
LG
6.9%
9
Shipment
(Million)
88.5
74.0
24.8
20.3
19.6
13.9
12.5
11.9
10.6
81.9
358.0
Market
Share
Source: Strategy Analytics
24.7%
20.7%
6.9%
5.7%
5.5%
3.9%
3.5%
3.3%
3.0%
22.8%
100.0%
Evolution of Mobile Handset
10
Evolution of the Cell Phone
1983
1990
2000
1st generation
2007
2ndgeneration
3rd generation
Sony Ericsson
P800
smartphone
158g
Motorola
DynaTAC
Approx. 1kg
Miniaturize
Nokia 1011
495g
RIM
BlackBerry Quark 6210
smartphone
136g
Motorola
StarTAC
88g
Apple
iPhone 3G
smartphone
140g
Functionalize, Thin/High Speed
mail, camera, data
11
internet
cloud
Characteristic of the 1st Generation
Period: From 1980s to 2000
Analog based mobile network
No data communication, only SMS
Heavy and bulky handset
Extremely expensive, starting from $1,000
“Miniaturize” is the most important for
development
Targeted only for the business and for
special segment
12
Mobile Handset History:
1st Generation
Handset Trend Transition
1983
1993
Source: GigaOM and Newgrounds.com
1996
13
1999
Characteristic of the 2nd Generation
Period: From appx. 2000 to 2007
Mobile phone for the mass people
Relatively slow data connection/ Internet
usage by phone
Golden time for handset vendors:
handset vendors were the most influential and powerful
Various kinds of handsets
Handset development environment is
relatively closed
14
Mobile Handset History: 2
nd
Generation
Handset Design Trend Transition
Smaller
Multimedia
High End
Nokia 6310:
111g
Sharp
GX10:
*with
Ultra Slim
battery
110g*
Design/ Thinner
Motorola
RAZR v3:
Motorola
V600:
Samsung
SPH-V9900:
NEC L1:
11.9mm *
13.9mm*
6.9mm *
Samsung
P520 :
8.9mm *★
115g*
Motorola V60:
LG
PRADA phone:
109g
12mm*★
LG
Chocolate:
Motorola
V70:83g
Nokia 3310:
133g
15.2 mm*
Nokia 3410:
114g
Panasonic A100:
Nokia 1100:
Low End
86g
66g:
Samsung
U100:
5.9mm *
VK Mobile:
48g:
*Camera、 ★ Touch display
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2nd Generation: Handset vendors have the strongest power
15
Ｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃｅ ①：
Unique Feature phones
“Xelibri“ by Simens, was one of the most unique series of handset…
← Xelibri ５
•74 gram
•139Euro
← Xelibri 6
•Compact type
•90 gram
•179 Euro
Xelibri 7 →
•83グラム
•価格：179ﾕｰﾛ
（約23,800円）
Xelibri 8 →
•Neck less Type
•NO button
(Voice Recognition)
•179Euro
16
Commercial Image
Ｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃｅ ②：
Unique Feature phones
“Qiblah“ by LG Electronics, was one of the best selling feature phones by LG for Islamic people
Release date：July, 2004
LG F7100 Qiblah
89g
Weight
Display
Talking
time
Waiting
hour
Technology
LCD65K Color
210 mim
200 hour
GSM900/1800/
GPRS
▸ Points the direction of MECCA
(With the Compass function)
▸ Make alerts 5 times a day to pray
▸ Arabic language
▸ SMS/MMS capability
◆
▸ LG’s best selling feature phone
* LG’s s strategy to carter for the
specific needs of the Muslim people
“Phone for Muslim Community”
17
Characteristic of the 3rd Generation
Period: appx. 2007 ~
Smartphone era
Higher speed network
More internet connection
Many new entrants to mobile handset
industry, such as Google and Apple
Industry structure revolution
18
Mobile Handset History: 23rd Generation
Beginning of Smartphone Era with iPhone
Year 2007: “iPhone” released
Almost all the high-end handset “look alike” after iPhone
19
LG
「KF-700」
Sony Ericsson
「XPERIA X1」
Nokia
「N96」
What is Smartphone?
Industry Definition of “Smartphone”
 Open Operation System(OS)
 Specification is disclosed to the third party
 Broad application development environment
 Mobile network capability
e.g. Not Wi-Fi only handset
 Apple: iOS、Google; Android、RIM: BlackBerry、Nokia: Symbian、
Microsoft: Windows Phone(Windows Mobile)and Linux
Smartphone?
20
Smartphone Market Projection
【Unit: Million】
800
2015年
2010年
700
21.4%
600
500
Global
41.0%
400
300
59.0%
200
100
78.6%
0
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
2 0 【西暦（年）】
15
【単位：100万】
20
11.1%
18
50.3%
16
14
Japan
12
49.7%
10
8
6
4
88.9%
2
0
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Smartphone
Data: Strategy Analytics, MCPC
Not Smartphone
21
Smartphone Industry Structure
Smartphone has its own ecosystem
Smartphone OS providers have strong power.
“Vertical integration structure”: Smartphone OS provider controls the service,
application and even handsets.
Service
(Email, Search,
Maps…)
Network
Application
OS/
Platform
Handset
Smartphone
Market share
*Smartphone market share: Top line: 2011.2Q, bottom: 20102Q
22
Smartphone OS based handset market share
► Android and iPhone OS are becoming two most powerful players
► Nokia’s Symbian losing much market share
2011.2Q
2010.2Q to 2011.2Q
※Source：Strategy Analytics
23
Data Traffic Explosion caused by Smartphone
AT&T’s iPhone brought huge revenue with the dramatically growing traffic
However, the carriers worry to become “Dumb Pipe” only providing the network.
Source：”AT&T + T-Mobile: A World-Class Platform for the Future of Mobile Broadband”, AT&T, March 21, 2011.
http://www.att.com/Common/about_us/pdf/INV_PRES_3-21-11_FINAL.pdf
24
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
Sauce：Cisco
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf
25
Smartphone Application Store
•”Application Store” is the place to provides third party developed
application and contents
•It makes the mobile industry even much more global
App Store by App;e
Android Market by Google
26
Variation of Android Smartphone
27
Mobile Handset Vendor Profit
Year 2010
Year 2007
S on y
Eric sson
Motorola
2,225
S on y
Eric sson
-1,091
820
LG
R IM
971
R IM
HTC
754
HTC
11,381
Nokia
2,286
S a msu n g
00
-607
2,718
1,446
4,710
Nokia
3,779
S a msu n g
501
-10
-198
Motorola
LG
A pple
227
9,356
A pple
400
0
900
-1,
0
【In million US dollars】
Source：Strategy Analytics. Exchange rate as of August 2011 for both charts
00 0
【In million US dollars】
28
4, 0
00
9, 0
00
Analysis of the Mobile Phone Evolution
～ What are the futures phone like?
29
What the Future Mobile Handset Be Like?
1st Generation
Network
 Analog
Data/
Internet
 Extremely
limited
Function Voice, SMS only
Basic Phones
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
Next Generation
 Digital
 W-CDMA
(UMTS)
 4G/ LTE
 Cloud computing
 Limited
 More internet
use,
congested
 Getting huge
Multimedia
capability
Feature Phones
Application, PC
like function
Smartphones
•Cloud computing,
•handset commoditization
…
?
Handset
Category
No device
intelligence
Low device
intelligence
High device
intelligence
Handset itself getting more intelligent
30
What do you
think???
The 4th Generation Handset Factor
Half of the mobile handset will be smartphone in 2015
Mobile handsets will be more commoditized and hard to
differentiate the terminal itself
Mobile network will be getting much faster
More players flooding into mobile industry, such as
internet company, SNS, and so on…
What are the future mobile phones and
services be like???
31
InfoCom Research, Inc.
Yoko Miyashita
Chief Consultant
www.icr.co.jp
Email: [email protected]