caulfield cup - Practical Punting

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CONTENTS: Sept./Oct. 2015 Vol.29, No. 274
3 Contents plus The Editor Says • Brian Blackwell
Publisher: Hugh Stanley
Editor:
Brian Blackwell
Art Design:
Draw Shoot Move
Contributing Photographer:
Steve Hart
Senior Contributing Writers
Don Matthews
Julian Mould
Clive Allcock
4 The Tips Page & NZ Tips • Brian Blackwell & Neil Franklyn
5 Systems & Angles • Philip Roy
6 Best of the Daily Race Notes
7 Educating The Punter • The Optimist
9 Plan of the Month • The Optimist
10 Pedigree Pointers • Julian Mould
11 Clive of PPM • Clive Allcock
Contributors/Columnists
Jon Hudson
Rick Roberts
Neil Franklyn
Richard Hartley Jnr
PB King
Michael Kemp
Philip Roy
Martin Dowling
Roman Kozlovski
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Our cover photo horse is
the Gai Waterhouse trained
French import Pornichet. He
could prove the star of the
spring. He returned off a break
on September 5 and ran well
for 6th/16 in Grp 2 at Randwick
1600m behind Complacent,
Kermadec and Royal Descent,
caught wide all the way. He can
improve sharply. Gai will find the
right races.
COVER PICTURE
Pornichet
Photo: STEVE HART.
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September/October 2015 –
3
The Tips Page
Check in for our weekly updates
PETITS FILOUS: Winner of all four starts to date,
this 3YO filly is shaping up as a true superstar.
She produced slick acceleration to score her fourth
win down the straight 1100m at Flemington on
September 12. Ciaron Maher seems to have landed
himself a brilliant galloper who can win more this
spring and then mature into a top-quality type
through 2016.
SNOOPY: This 3YO colt from the Team Hawkes
stable had no luck at all when unplaced in a set
weights 3YO 1400m at Flemington on September
12. She had won her first three starts and was
strongly fancied to make it four in a row but bad
luck intervened. She was held up for clear running
from early in the straight until near the 150m and
lost any chance of making it into the placings.
Forget that run. Snoopy has a touch of class and her
shrewd trainers will place her to best advantage.
UNDER THE LOUVRE: The 5YO has racked up
an excellent career record of 22 starts for 8 wins,
5 2nds and 4 3rds. He steamed home for his 2nd
to Churchill Dancer in the Lewis Quality (Grp 2)
1200m at Flemington on September 12. Back in late
March, Under The Louvre won the Hareeba Stakes
(Listed) 1200m at Mornington and then ran 2nd in
the Anniversary Case (Listed) 1400m at Caulfield,
narrowly beaten by Amorino. These are very good
formlines.
FAWKNER: The Reset 8YO showed his class and
bravery under fire to win the Grp 1 wfa Makybe
Diva Stakes 1600m at Flemington. It was his first
start since running 10th in the Melbourne Cup
2014. Fawkner ran a close 2nd to Adelaide in last
year's Cox Plate and after his Flemington win on
September 12 he was equal favorite for the great
Moonee Valley race at around 9/1. He will be hard
to beat. His connections are desperate to nail a Cox
Plate win.
RISING ROMANCE: Now with the HayesDabernig stable, this Kiwi stayer looks like a sound
chance for the Caulfield Cup and maybe the Cox
Plate. The 5YO drove to the line in grand fashion
for 2nd to Fawkner in the Makybe Diva and that
followed a luckless 6th/15 in the Grp 1 Memsie
1400m at Caulfield on August 29 when first-up
off a spell. She looks to be in great nick for a big
spring campaign.
4 – September/October 2015
• With Brian Blackwell
SET SQUARE: The Reset 4YO had little luck
when running 5th over the Flemington 1700m on
September 12. She was trapped wide all the way.
Her overall form record is highly encouraging.
Her most recent win was her VRC Oaks 2500m
triumph on November 6 last year. That shows just
what a good stayer she can be. Don't drop off her
because of that Flemington defeat. She never really
had a genuine chance once she was caught deep
with no chance of getting an inside run.
KIRRAMOSA: John Sargent's 5YO mare deserves
a lot of thought for the big races in the spring.
She was unlucky when 5th to Hooked in Grp 2
at Randwick 1400m on September 5. She won the
2013 VRC Oaks 2500m and that gives a good guide
to the level she can reach if Sargent can get her
peaking.
SCHERZOSO: Tony McEvoiy can pick up a good
race with this 4YO. He had no luck in the final
200m when unplaced in the Ranvet 1800m BM80
at Rosehill on September 12 but before that was
a strong 1600m winner at Morphettville on Aug
8 and did Ok for 6th at Moonee Valley 1600m on
August 22. There could be a nice value price about
this one.
FOUNDRY: The Irish import, owned by Lloyd
Williams and friends, ran an encouraging 3rd over
2000m at Rosehill on September 12. The Galileo
6YO is building up well and should be considered
as a Melbourne Cup prospect. The stable is always
aiming to win the big one at Flemington and this
is one of their potent chances.
STOPWATCH SPECIALS
Our sole Stopwatch Special horse to follow is
UNGRATEFUL ELLEN. She went to the line
boldly to win a trial at Cranbourne on September
11. Last time in she ran 2nd to Winx over 2200m
at Doomben. The Robert Smerdon stable will be
aiming high with her.
Continued page 5
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Neil Franklyn's NZ Specials
SACRED MASTER – Four-year-old son of
Mastercraftsman who has taken little time in
entering my blackbook. The Tony Pike-trained
gelding cleared maidens in easy fashion by two
lengths on the first day of the season at Ruakaka.
He then stepped up to 2000m four weeks later on
Premier day at Hastings and repeated the dose in
emphatic fashion with regular rider Leith Innes
astride the pigskin.
ne of the first calls of caution I received
when I took an interest in horse racing was
this: don’t expect to make money following
STRADIVARIUS – This customer will have a
tough time living up to his namesake, but is wellbred and a couple of minor placings over the past
five weeks caught my attention that indicated
talent. The 3-year-old colt ran a very close 3rd at
his most recent outing – beaten just a nose and a
long-head at Hastings on August 29. That was his
first run for 35 days where he had run 2nd in 2YO
company at Otaki, so should improve markedly
with the gallop.
jockeys.
WAWRINKA – Another 3-year-old who will
attempt to live up to his namesake and he won’t
die wondering being a member of the respected
Graeme & Debbie Rogerson stable. The Swiss Ace
gelding recently snatched 3rd prize in a 3YO race
at Ruakaka and finished 2nd in similar company
at his start prior. Samantha Collett is his regular
rider and the combination will be tough to hold out
wherever they next line up.
Of course, we cannot get away from the fact that
jockeys are an integral part of the form for any race.
They MUST be taken into account.
P.P.M.
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It’s something I’ve remembered all those years. It’s
why I have never been one for jockey fixation; that
is, backing a jockey through thick and thin, and
ignoring whether his mounts have real prospects or
next to zero.
I know some blokes who do it and claim success. I
can’t verify their claims, but they keep on making
them.
Ratings crunchers will give penalties and
bonuses for jockeys. At the moment, I know that
top professionals are rating Blake Shinn very
Continued page 6
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September/October 2015 –
5
highly. Some ratings men give him a two lengths’
advantage. He can, they say, mean the difference
between winning and losing. Much the same goes
for Hugh Bowman and James McDonald.
Imagine the situation for yourself: You have
narrowed the chances down to two. One is ridden by
a jockey best known for his country and provincial
winners, the other chance has Bowman, or perhaps
Shinn aboard. You can only back one of them. So
which will it be?
I’d say that in nine out of 10 instances you would
be wise to give the nod to the better rider. It makes
sense. Long term it will see you ahead of the game.
Now, a few final thoughts:
• Always consider the jockey when assessing
chances in a race.
• Refrain from a bet a horse based on only the
jockey factor or the trainer/jockey combination.
Other key form factors must also point to the
horse being a solid betting proposition.
• If your horse usually gets back in the field then
the importance of the jockey increases. Average
jockeys on horses that need to come from
well back to win are usually doubtful betting
propositions.
• Avoid betting on a jockey with a poor
performance record, even if they have won on
the horse. Anything less than a 12 per cent strike
rate on rides less than or equal to 10/1 raises
questions about a jockey’s winning ability..
• Average jockeys do win on well-backed horses,
but they are a losing proposition long-term.
• BEST JOCKEYS FOR THE SPRING: Hugh
Bowman, James McDonald, Blake Shinn,
Damien Oliver, Glen Boss.
P.P.M.
New systems in every issue
Best of the Daily Race Notes
AKE A NOTE OF THE HORSES
WHICH ARE LISTED...THEY ARE
LIKELY WINNERS.
Saturday, September 5
Big run down outside by KIRRAMOSA in the
Tramway 1400m at Randwick; picked up many
lengths. Suited 1600m to 2400m.
Saturday, August 29
At Caulfield, SET SQUARE was an unlucky 2nd
at 1400m first-up off a spell; looks set for a big
campaign. We liked the run of JESSY BELLE
in the Sprint Series 1200m. Keep on the trail of
RISING ROMANCE; didn't enjoy a clear passage
in the Memsie, and needs further. At Rosehill.
EXOSPHERE was an impressive winner over
1200m; classy. SONG AND LAUGHTER is one
to follow from a BM80 over 1100m.
Thursday, August 27
POUVOIR did her best work late for 4th over
1100m at Ballarat.
Wednesday, August 26
LIZARD ISLAND turned in a fine run for 3rd
over 1200m at Sandown Lakeside. In the same
race, we noted a good effort from STRIKE FORCE
(closed well).
6 – September/October 2015
Tuesday, August 25
We noted a good effort from CHIPS over 1400m
at Pakenham Synthetic. TWENTY FIVE KISSES
is worth following after a nice closing run over
1400m. Keep a close eye on PORTICI; ran well
over 1100m.
Monday, August 24
South Aussie MARANEKA ran well in a Mdn
1200m at Warrnambool. In the same race, we
noted PRINCESS LOU LING. In a BM64 over
1200m we liked the run of EPONA FURY.
Friday, August 21
Keep close tabs on SUPER HAZE from a Mdn
Plate 1400m at Mildura; this one looks OK.
Tuesday, August 18
Look out for the Mick Price trained MANOSA;
shaped well for 4th in a Mdn 1600m at Bairnsdale.
Two to follow from a Mdn 1200m are GET THE
PICTURE and HARD TO KISS.
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VALE BART
ounger people may not realise how great
Bart was. I had the great honour to do
an extensive interview with him for a
magazine called Enjoy Racing in 1995 or very
early 1996. Among other things, he told me how
excited he was by a horse called SAINTLY, later
known as the Horse from Heaven, which at 15/1
early and coupled with Arctic Scent at 40/1 in the
Caulfield Cup, gave me a huge win in the 1996
Melbourne Cup.
As a youngster and at the mercy of the teacher,
I heard Comic Court win the 1950 Cup at about
25/1. I’d been lucky as the previous teacher had
also tuned in and we all heard Foxami win. I
never struck accommodating teachers after that
and missed every live call until my final year in
1957, when we final year students were doing
our Leaving Certificate and were therefore able
to hear the race (provided we didn’t have an
exam at that time and I got lucky).
The next one I missed was 1968. We had
emigrated to Canada and I didn’t get back until
just before Piping Lane at 40/1 took the ‘72 Cup
(without me, I fear). The following year I tipped
Gala Supreme for about three months, then when
he didn’t seem to quite get the mile and a half
of the first Cup I dropped off. I learnt a valuable
lesson about sticking the course that day!!!
In ’74 Bart had a gem of a big black mare named
Leilani. Horse of the Year 1974-75. Oh the money
I won on her, including 33/1 in the Caulfield Cup
in which she ran at (from memory) 7/2 favourite.
But I had her running in a two-Cups double
for just over $20,000 – a bet at 33/1 and 66/1.
These days they cut the bet for “same horse”
dramatically, but back then you could find
helpful bookmakers. Now if you can imagine, we
had just bought our house in a lovely new Lake
Macquarie suburb, for $22,000 – thought by some
to be excessive, but we’d lived in England and we
saw what happened there, so we were prepared
to grab this home. That bet would pay it out.
Cook take off just a tad too early? Mal Johnston
had the same questions to answer after Kingston
Town lost a Cup he should have won. I really
don’t know. Cook needn’t have gone so soon,
but I’m sure he thought he had it won, and so it
seemed to us all until a big hunk of a three-miler
named Think Big nailed her. I just stood there
feeling so sad. Bart came on and said “I feel like
I’ve beaten myself!” I was reminded of Red Rum
and Crisp: the Australian wonder leaper gave the
challenger two STONE over nearly five miles,
and at one stage led by more than half a furlong.
Crisp just had to strike perhaps the best jumper
of the century (Red Rum won the next two Grand
Nationals as well) and to give him two stone
(twenty eight pounds, or 13 kilograms). Guess
who had 20/1?
Bart thought so much of Leilani that he named his
home stable at Kensington (Randwick) after her.
He had good Cups mares. Let’s Elope of course,
but also the wonderful Light Fingers which damn
near spoilt Galilee’s party in 1966 after nosing
out Ziema to win the year before. And she gave
weight. Ziema was one of those Bart horses that
ran a series of seconds and was never recognised,
yet he was a near-champion. Shiva’s Revenge was
in that class to a degree, even protesting against
Let’s Elope (another Bart quinella).
My favourite story has been much repeated. It’s
the one with the health inspector who told Bart that
Leilani Lodge had “too many flies”. In his most
laconic style and out of the corner of his mouth,
almost a mumble as it mostly was, Bart asked in
all innocence how many he was allowed to have.
When I did the major interview he took me on a
full tour of his stables and we met some lovely
beasts. Saintly wasn’t there at the time but there
were several big names, both distance horses and
sprinters. I was very moved by his trust. He told
me things I never repeated and naturally didn’t
print. I knew he was assuming I understood that
he was implicitly letting me know that he would
trust me completely. Just Once. I don’t think I let
him down and I still hold dear a couple of little
things he mentioned in conversation. It was like
we just clicked and I valued that very highly. I
always will.
So vale Bart. Not just a great trainer but a great
Australian. A man of immense talent and super
sharp wit. I count it a very great privilege to have
seen behind the curtain.
Continued page 8
There has always been conjecture: did Peter
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September/October 2015 –
7
MY USUAL CARPS
I just don’t get SKY at all. Don’t they have any
regard for the English language? Nobody expects
perfection but really, some of the lower levels
we’re treated to are unbelievable.
There’s the bloke who can’t say “three”, for
example. He’s a regular on most days. He thinks
it’s SREE. There are several who have no idea of
English – didn’t they do basic schooling? Who
employs them? Are they interviewed? If so, well,
comment is superfluous. If not, what can anyone
possibly say?
And the rubbish spoken on the way to the post
in horse races. I counted one chap tell us NINE
TIMES that “they” had come for a horse, and
another regularly repeats the “market mover”
(talk about after the horse has bolted!) ad
infinitum. Late Mail is nonsense. It mostly isn’t
at all, and usually in the case of the metropolitan
tracks it’s the tipster’s selections, the same
selections we were given on at least four or five
occasions already that day.
Oh I know I’m, well, you know, right into the
wind. It’s difficult not to form the opinion that
SKY doesn’t care.
My other gripe is the growing habit of destroying
front runners by setting up a no-hoper to disturb
the pacemaker, so that the natural front runner
reefs and tears and of course does itself in. The
no-hoper has a hit-out, “tries hard”, and nothing
can be said. But to me it stinks. I used that term
“pacemaker”. In the UK, for one, that’s a legal
ploy. You have two runners and everybody
knows one is there to set the pace for the fancied
conveyance. It’s illegal here.
SO WHY ISN’T WHAT I JUST DESCRIBED
ILLEGAL TOO?
THE CUPS
Let’s see now. Six million from the UK, a million
from Japan, a thousand from other places, and
about half a dozen locals, mostly with overseas
Mummies or Daddies (or both).
That about sums up the current Melbourne Cup
entries.
Some early questions to ponder:
1. Will the horse you fancy a bit even come?
2. Will it like Australia?
3. Will it like the conditions it finds on Tuesday
November 3?
8 – September/October 2015
Park all the usual questions here – you’ve got
over the unanswerable ones.
I told you two issues ago I’d backed Chris Waller’s
Winx and Team Hawkes’ La Amistad at (to my
mind anyway) way over their correct odds, given
that nothing was certain about the race or about
them and, as I write this, it still isn’t. I since risked
a very small amount on Gust of Wind because I
don’t think if the horse fires I’ll get the 66/1 on
offer.
Fame Game impresses me on reports. I feel the
$11 or so isn’t even half enough at this stage but
the horse looks all class. Local imports Hartnell,
Who Shot the Barman (Chris Waller is due and
he also has Junoob which is still learning) and
Protectionist all must be chances. Pornichet
maybe, I can’t catch this one. Surely Red Cadeaux
is too old…La Amistad came back with a practice
outing at Caulfield at the end of August (as I
recall her sister doing but then this current mare
has no speed at all under a mile and a half) and
those colours sent goose bumps down my spine.
The Andrew Ramsden showed she gets two miles
and gets it with some authority.
The Offer looks good when he’s winning (and
vice versa) and I LOVE mares from Brisbane that
have shown that rare turn of foot we saw from
Winx. That continues to get me in and I’m very
happy to have grabbed fifties on her (and $26
in the Caulfield Cup). True she may head to the
Cox Plate but in my humble opinion Moonee
Valley would be a senseless move – Adelaide
did it, somehow, but unless you’re Adelaide or
Kingston Town it’s a sheer impossibility to mow
down a field of top class middle distance horses
and milers on what is a delightful but (let’s face
it) tiny track.
There was a time when I thought St Jean might
have what it takes. I think the time has passed.
And that Adelaide ghost, whose name (French,
I think) eludes me… Dom Tourneur rode…
oh I can get them wrong, you see… Good luck
however you decide!
P.P.M.
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So six bets in all.
If there were only four bets for the day I might be
tempted to do this for the place:
ABCD ABC ABD ACD BCD. The yankee without
the doubles. Say all pay $2.
Get the lot and you receive $48.
What would $2 pay if only three or the four
placed? Well! What do you know?
$8. For the $5 outlaid. And you’d therefore pull in
three of your four dollars’ win outlay. One dollar
down overall.
his isn’t the first time we’ve chatted about
insurance and I have several pleasant
memories about debating the each way
and place issues of racing with my old pal
Clive Allcock. Clive was very “anti” (he may well
remain so) and was a “win only” man, while I
spent years mulling it over without ever coming
to any firm decisions.
I did have the sense that the place could be used,
but it wasn’t until the arrival of the online bookies
that the opportunities really revealed themselves
as profitable. One afternoon I was watching from
home and my top selections ran FIVE seconds in
a row. Every horse that I fancied that day was
either caught on the line, or just missed reeling in
some nuisance or other.
BUT they all ran places and here were the best
places paid across the three totes:
$2.10
Tell you why I’ve become so keen on this. Come
closer, because I’m not telling just anyone…
The horses’ form(s) are so well documented
and computerised nowadays that the bookies’
computers and whizbang assessors are rarely
very far off the mark. There’s not much in it
between what they offer and what the horses
should be. They’re very, very good.
But they don’t set the TAB place prices…
Got that? They have their fingers in every other
pie. Fist and all probably. Up to the elbows even.
But the place divvies belong to the machines and
you, you alone, will determine those offerings.
THAT is the fact of the matter. It is not speculation,
IT IS FACT.
$2.30
$2.20
$2.70
$2.50
Now you can see that not one exceeded a bit
above 6/4, and yet they all would have covered
my losing win bets- a simple addition makes
$11.80, or a profit overall of $1.80 for every dollar
each way.
At (say) $20 each way the profit was $36. Hardly
a fortune but a darn side better than a total
wipeout!
It’s 18% profit actually… so what do you
WANT??? Get that every week and you’re doing
very, very well. Of course you won’t, but on
the other hand some weeks will bring winners.
I would have taken (with the benefit of the
hindsight we all love) a fivetella (all up, all five)
and five fourtellas. Quaddies if you like. I don’t
mind what you call them but I mean four horses
as all-ups, as in:
ABCD ABCE ACDE ABDE ACDE.
Then as I mentioned we’d start with an ABCDE.
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If you feel the urge, work out the returns on the
five-horse example we started with. You’d be
way, way over $100, even perhaps $150. A rotten
day would become a great day.
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Practically every corporate bookie offers “best
place”. Be careful of one major that actually
restricts you to “middle dividend” outside
metropolitan areas and on quieter days, but you
can establish within thirty seconds which one
that is… and act accordingly.
I did try to outguess “fixed price place value”
with the bookies but I found that, by a long
margin, I was better off taking the final best tote
price. Even when I was pretty confident that a
bookie’s offered fix place price was better than
anything I’d see later, the final price from at least
one TAB was close to equal or better. Sometimes
FAR better. I stopped trying to outguess the
professionals.
By the way, they don’t like place bettors… the
bookies I mean. In the UK years ago, they limited
place bets to one fifth of the win for ordinary
events. I’ve mentioned to you over the years
that with a very weak Tote organisation, the Brit
Continued page 10
September/October 2015 –
9
betting shops, the “turf accountants” as they
liked to be known, always ruled the roost. It was
why, when you went in the door, all the exotic
tickets were there in your face like those pesky
people at the voting centres. BUT try to find an
ordinary little blank sheet! Not a chance usually.
I knew some punters who used to take their own
paper. It was simply photocopied and the ticket
handed across the counter so who cared, but it
was so obvious that you were not encouraged to
bet just the win, or worse still each way, or worst
of all PLACE and PLACE ALL-UPS.
Now I wonder why…? There’s an old saying that
the smart investor looks for what the bookmaker
is NOT spruiking. In this case it’s betting styles
and processes.
So our method? Too easy. Pick your four or five
best for the day. Just forget for the moment WHAT
you intend doing winwise, apart from how much
you’re betting at present. Just take place multis to
total the same as your win bet total. If there are
five selections you will need five multis – just as
if the bets were each way, in effect.
Four selections? OK, just take three place trebles
and a place accumulator or quaddie. Your place
outlay should equal your win outlay. IF you end
up with more than five major selections you’re
in shark-infested waters, and the costs of the
insurance will of course be greater (the same as
the win costs). Riskier too.
Remember this is not a fun thing. It’s dead serious!
It may just be the best change you’ve ever made
to your betting.
P.P.M.
Pedigree Pointers
With Julian Mould
Last season became as an unprecedented
year for Australian racing as imported
stayers from all quarters rained down upon
us to take out many of our Group 1 races
from 2000m upwards to 3200m. Some had been
recently purchased from Europe by the top stables,
and so were a kind of a half-and-half victory for
Oz and Europe; think Contributor, Hartnell and
Gran Marshal for example. Others though were of a much more overseas
nature. Horses from Japan, Germany and Ireland
had the biggest impact with Admire Rakti for
Japan taking the Caulfield Cup, Protectionist
from Germany winning the Melbourne Cup and
Ireland’s Aidan O’Brien grabbing the Cox Plate
with a sublime run by Adelaide.
This was the first time all the spring majors had
been taken offshore and remember, too, that
Britain’s Ryan Moore snared the Melbourne Cup
and Cox Plate for himself as well. Zac Purton
was the only Australian to show up in a ‘major’
winner’s enclosure, having steered Admire Rakti
to victory.
Of course, more and more foreigners have been
coming over for the last ten years to take some of
that chunky Australian prize money to fill their
free-flowing bank accounts. And now they’re
becoming extremely hard to repel.
So the writing has been on the wall for some
time, and the Australian racing committees and
breeding and industry have had time to react to
10 – September/October 2015
it – but without much luck. Perhaps, the hypnotic
lure of speed in the Australian stallion is just too
powerful.
With the ‘clean sweep’ of the spring majors by
foreigners, followed this year by the death of our
great titan, Bart Cummings, perhaps the glory
days of Australian stayers are finally eclipsed.
Should only look to the invaders for a winning bet
in the big races?
If Bart was still here, and his presence is still felt,
maybe the first thing he would say is that it was
always Australia’s great antipodean partner, New
Zealand that provided Australia with the right
kind of staying power. These people Bart respected
Continued page 11
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deeply and were the only ‘foreigners’ that were
acceptable in his mind.
Serendipity is a feature of racing and it would
certainly be a serendipitous moment if the spring
carnival could celebrate Bart’s passing with either
an Aussie-trained or Kiwi-bred victory in the great
staying races. I can certainly picture a very satisfied
look on Bart’s face if a Kiwi-bred horse fended off
all foreign invaders with a true show of stamina
and courage.
In the futures markets of the Caulfield and
Melbourne Cups we have our usual pile of
contenders looking for a win and there’s plenty in
with a shout.
Hopefully, Gai Waterhouse’s Pornichet can score a
victory. This is a horse that has plenty going for
it, as it is bred with stamina in the pedigree but
seems so classy that it can make its presence felt
in 1400-1600m races. This horse has a fantastic
record already and if you discount its one start in
the USA and a 1300 stakes effort (never going to
get close there in Oz) then his record is amazingly
consistent.
Pornichet could feature in any of the spring
Group 1s as advertised by his slashing effort in the
Warwick stakes. He’s been a leading contender in
the Cox Plate market for a while but he’ll stay in
either of the Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup. Not sure if
he’d win a Melbourne Cup but if the ground was a
Good3 or 4 then he could have a real shout.
Rising Romance has also caught the eye this spring
with an incredibly sprightly first-up effort in the
Memsie stakes, getting to within 1 ½ lengths of
Boban; an excellent effort for a mare who has done
here best work in a big field, soft ground ATC Oaks
and in an big field, high pressure Caulfield Cup.
Her Caulfield Cup was particularly good but the
field that day was not necessarily super hot. There
were probably only 5 or 6 horses in the whole field
that could’ve had a real chance and they pretty
much filled the first 6 places!
I can envisage a similar sort of field lining up for
this year’s too, and if Pornichet and the overseas
crew stay away in quantity then Rising Romance
could well win. I’m not certain Mongolian Khan,
Volkstok’n’barrell, Winx, Contributer will fully
stay a high pressure 2400m. Preferment, Fame
Game, Hauraki do look like they will stay 2400m
well and each of them also has a pedigree that will
also make them competitive in the Melbourne Cup.
Hartnell’s excellent work from the autumn should
not be forgotten either. If he appears in form
this spring then there’s no doubt he’ll stay a Cox
Plate or a Caulfield Cup. His Sydney Cup failure
suggests that he wouldn’t win a Melbourne Cup
but, in truth, that loss was more about being poorly
handicapped than having an ineffective pedigree.
He’ll have weight to carry in the Caulfield Cup,
which might be an issue, but he’s so good that he
could defy it.
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CLIVE
CLIVE
OF PPM
OF PPM
Clive Allcock
talks racing
HOPEFUL HORSES!
am off for a change of scenery which will take
me away from the Sydney scene until just after
the Epsom but am back in time to do battle for
the big ones in Melbourne so I thought I would throw
in some horses that caught my eye in recent times and
who I think will likely show up over the carnival so
someone (maybe!) benefits as I do not bet when away.
Royal Descent. Aside from the fact that I had a small
bet on her it was pleasing to see her win as she has
been so darn close so often! I liked the style of her
win and while she looked a little more forward to
my eye than some of her competitors she could go
on and take out better events. Well known in the wet
asol. She could be in the breeding barn but it seems
connections feel she can avenge those defeats and on
this run that is likely.
Complacent. In the same race this horse caught my
eye in the enclosure. When tragically Burbero broke
down Complacent, carrying a small each way bet of
mine based on his looks, was taken out of the race just
as he was revving up.
You will recall his rapid rise to glory from maiden to
Spring Championship stakes winner and the Derby
placing all in 2013. If he remains sound he could be a
solid contender this year and while a run or two will
bring out the best he may be capable of strong efforts
at pleasing prices earlier.
Hartnell. When he appears watch him in everything!
Exosphere. He looked big to me (and is a big horse
anyway!) but won well in the disappointingly small
field for the Run to the Roses. With the improvement
gained he may be better value than Vancouver when
they clash. Remember he won the Skyline by a
dominant four lengths before having heart issues in
the Slipper. If they do not recur he should make his
mark this campaign.
Continued page 12
September/October 2015 –
11
BONUS BETS
With no names given I recently went online to my
bookmaker only to find my account was zero!!
Somehow the entire amount had been laid on a multi
soccer bet three days before. SOCCER! They could
have had the decency to bet on the horses, please.
Now, to give credit the bookmaker very quickly
replaced the money which was only around $300 at
that time, and gave me some bonus bets to ease my
angst. I was assured no access to a credit card was
likely and of course the old account was closed and I
opened a new one. So it can happen.
But it led to me thinking about how bonus bets are
handled by the punter. I have no information on
this from any bookmaker so these thoughts are just
my own experience coupled with chats with fellow
recipients.
In the early days with small amounts the temptation
was to look for something at $10-20 and go for a
biggish collect. I must say that when I received these
bets as had happened with an anniversary bet the
month before I was urged to throw it on such longer
priced horses. But with one last year I played for the
place on horses paying $1.60-$2.00 (all bets must, with
my company, be on those showing $1.50 minimum)
and had small returns as opposed to losses.
I think a common attitude is that “it is free so go for
broke” but that does seem to be the end result for most
of those bets – broke- talking around the traps. So
now I have become petty and mean and am grateful
for any contribution to my coffers so small returns are
pleasing regardless as something beats nothing!
thirty days also or else they were lost. I complied and
won. This year however I was reading the conditions
and found the terms a little confusing so spoke to
the agency. The upshot appears to be that winnings
cannot be withdrawn within thirty days but there is
(with my company I stress – you may need to check
with your own) no obligation to bet the amount
of any winnings from the bonus bet singly or in
multiples within thirty days. This I was told would
be compelling people to bet and would be “against
the responsible gambling” policy. Still, the wording
around this was not clear on the email offering the bet
so take this on board and check it out. A certain court
case last year where the ACCC took action against a
bookmaker for its turnover requirements for these
free bets may have had a good influence on attitudes.
BEATEN FAVOURITES.
More of an update next time but the play on these
starters is still in the black so I will report more results
then, even if it has swung down! Some near misses at
good prices but enough collects at shorter dividends
to still keep the interest up.
THE CUP.
Just time to remind the reader of my system for this
event (Melbourne, not Caulfield, of course!). Take a
win bet on all those horses listed at $10 - $21 inclusive
in the SMH on the morning of the race. Ideally there
should be 6 or less and if there are more be cautious
as the race is likely even more of a lottery than usual!
Until next time – have fun punting.
When you play a bonus sometimes conditions apply.
One in place last year was clearly that bets must be
placed within thirty days – fair enough as it is their
“theoretical” money. But back then it was required
that winnings had to be replaced into a bet within
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