Climate Change Science - Michigan Association for Local Public

MICHIGAN’S CLIMATE & HEALTH
PROFILE
Lorri Cameron, MPH, PhD
Michigan Climate & Health Program (MICHAP)
Division of Environmental Health, MDCH
with climate information from
The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences
+ Assessments (GLISA)
Michigan’s Premier Public Health Conference
October 7, 2015
CDC’s BRACE Framework
1. Forecasting
Climate Impacts and
Assessing
Vulnerabilities
5. Evaluating
Impact and
Improving Quality
of Activities
4. Developing and
Implementing a
Climate and Health
Adaptation Plan
Building
Resilience
Against
Climate
Effects
2. Projecting the
Disease Burden
3. Assessing Public
Health
Interventions
http://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/default.htm
Michigan’s Current and
Projected Climate
Laura Briley and
Daniel Brown
Observed MichiganTemperature
2.9°F
1.6°C
1960-2012
Michigan has warmed faster than the global
and national rates.
Source: Third National Climate Assessment, GLISA Analysis of nClimDiv climate divisional data.
Projected Temperature Changes,
1971-2000 to 2041-2070
Winter temperatures projected to increase the most in the North, and
Summer temperatures to increase the most in the South
A Migrating Climate
The climate future
generations experience
will be fundamentally
different than the
climate today.
By the end of this century,
Michigan summers will
feel more like current
summers in Arkansas.
Courtesy UCS 2009, original work by Hayhoe et al.
More Extreme Heat
by 2070:
Most of Michigan:
Modest increases in the number
of days per year over 95°F.
Some areas:
As many as 25 more days
per year over 95°F.
Northern locations and
vulnerable populations
are more sensitive to heat.
Observed Michigan Precipitation
12%
1960-2012
Precipitation is variable. Northern areas have seen declines while
Michigan has seen an overall increase.
Source: Third National Climate Assessment, Weighted averages of nClimDiv divisional data from 8 U.S. Great Lakes States.
Projected Precipitation Change
from 1971-2000 to 2041-2070
Winter
+10 to 20%
Spring
+0 to +15%
Summer
-5 to 0%
Fall
+0 to +15%
NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC
Observed Extreme Precipitation
The amount falling in the heaviest 1% of precipitation events
increased by 37% in the Midwest and by 71% in the Northeast
from 1958 to 2012.
Following methodology from Groisman et al, 2005, updated.
Predicted Change in Extreme
Precipitation, 1971-2000 to 2041-2070
The number of days per year with 1+ inches of precipitation
will likely increase by about 10% in the south and up to 40% in
the north by mid-century.
Following methodology from Groisman et al, 2005, updated.
Priority Climate-Related Health
Impacts
1. Respiratory
conditions
2. Heat Illness
3. Storm –related
Injury, CO
poisoning
4. Water – borne
diseases
5. Vector – borne
diseases
CHPR Prediction
Key Health
Outcome
Biophysical Parameter Changes
Respiratory
Diseases
Air Pollutants increase with high temps;
Pollen, Mold levels increase with longer
growing season & more moisture
Heat Morbidity,
Mortality
More frequent, longer Heat Events;
Warmer minimum temperatures
Injury, CO
Poisoning
More frequent Ice Storms, Extreme Rain
leading to more Power Outages & Cleanup;
changes in other storm types unclear
Predicted
Change
?
Waterborne
Algal blooms, other Flood-related
Diseases, Toxins contaminations more frequent
Vectorborne
Diseases
Impact on Mosquito &Tick lifecycle unclear
?
Projected Increases by Region
Northern
Michigan
• Warmer all seasons
• Winter rain &
freezing rain
Western Michigan
• Poor Air Quality
• Flooding
• Snow & Ice Storms
Central Michigan
• Poor Water Quality
• Flooding
Southeastern
Michigan
•
•
•
•
Extreme Heat Days
Poor Air Quality
Poor Water Quality
Flooding
Thank you!
[email protected]
www.michigan.gov/climateandhealth
Heat Vulnerability in Michigan
Carina Gronlund, PhD, MPH
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Center for Social Epidemiology and Population
Health, University of Michigan School of Public
Health
Relative heat mortality risk
among 105 U.S. cities, 1987-2000
Temperature-Cardiovascular Mortality
Association Among the Elderly, MaySeptember, 1990-2007
Detroit
Flint
Grand Rapids
Lansing
Ann Arbor
Kalamazoo
Who is Most Vulnerable to Heat
Neighborhood
Cardiorespiratory,
renal and
endocrine
health
Mental health or
cognitive or
physical disability
Medication
use
Housing
characteristics
Social isolation
Private air
conditioning
use
Crime and
safety
Opening
windows/
using fans
Physiologic
response to heat
Use of cool
public
spaces
Heat exposure
Adverse health
effects of heat
Heat risk
perception
Cultural/
Linguistic
isolation
Urban
heat
island
Occupation
Health of Michiganders, 2011-2013
Characteristic
U.S. (2013)
Michigan
Detroit
Fair or poor
health
16.7%
17.3%
31.5%
Disability
23.7%
26.1%
33.4%
Obese
29.4%
31.3%
39.7%
High blood
pressure
31.4%
34.4%
42.9%
Asthma
9.0%
15.6%
19.9%
COPD
6.5%
8.1%
10.3%
Cardiovascular 4.1%
disease
9.8%
11.9%
Diabetes
10.3%
14.4%
9.7%
Urban Heat Islands
Vulnerability Assessment Process
1. Identify characteristics indicating climate
vulnerabilities
a) Exposure
b) Sensitivity
2. Map vulnerability distribution
3. Collaborate, integrate with existing regional
initiatives
4. Use to support resiliency/adaptation
Wayne County Heat Vulnerability
Collaborative Vulnerability Initiatives
University of Michigan Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning
& Detroit Climate Action Collaborative (DCAC)
Heat
Flooding
Detroit Climate Action Planning Framework
Public Health Strategies to
Promote Resilience to Heat
• Monitoring conditions, informing the public
• Warnings: Extreme heat events, Air Quality Index
• Identify, map & target vulnerable groups
• Community and infrastructure planning
• Green space to reduce heat stress in urban areas
• Health Impact Assessment (HIA)
• Emergency Preparedness
• Plans for extreme heat
25
What do YOU need to build heat
resilience?
•
•
•
•
Local health effects data?
Local climate risk, vulnerability info?
‘Grab & go’ Emergency Response Toolkits?
Connection to community resources?
• www.cdc.gov/extremeheat/materials.html
Questions?
Climate Change in
Michigan: Human
Health, Equity and
Resilience
Trish Koman, MPP
University of Michigan
School of Public Health
734-764-0552 [email protected]
Denise Bryan, MPA
Health Officer
District Health Department #2
“Our increasing
understanding of
climate change is
transforming how we
view the boundaries
and determinants of
human health… The
world’s climate
system is
fundamental to our
life-support.”
World Health
Organization
2003
WHO Climate change and human health - risks and responses. Summary. WHO, 2003, ISBN 9241590815, http://www.who.int/globalchange/summary/en/
31 Michigan Cities Joined 1,060 Mayors Signing
US Council of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement
Ann Arbor
Battle Creek
Berkeley
Dearborn Hgts
Detroit
East Lansing
Ferndale
Flint
Grand Rapids
Holland
Kalamazoo
Lansing
Marquette
Meridian Twp
Muskegon
Pittsfield Twp
Portage
Roseville
Royal Oak
Saline
Southfield
Southgate
Sturgis
Suttons Bay
Taylor
W
Bloomfield
Traverse
City
Warren
Waterford
Westland
Ypsilanti
As of
3/5/2015
MI-Environment
Relative Heat
Stress
Vulnerability:
1) Temperature
2) People
3) Places
31
Climate Change Belief: “Six Americas”
Source: Edward Maibach, George Mason Center for Climate Communication, Feb 2015
Types of Questions about Climate
Change based on “Six Americas”
Source: National Park Service Climate Change Communication Guide
Different Perspectives
Pick 2 stakeholder
groups
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Parents
Businesses
Farmers
Water Infrastructure
Boards of Health
Health Care Systems
Others?
How will these groups
engage to solve the public
health problems of heat
stress vulnerability?
What will some of their
values and likely unspoken
concerns or questions be?
34
Talking About How Climate Change
Affects People’s Health
• Which type are you?
• National Climate
Assessment
• KQED/Six America’s
• IPCC summary for
Quiz
policy makers
• Uw.kqed.org/climatesur
vey/index-kqed.php
• MI-Environment Map:
• Communication Tools:
• EcoAmerica Research
booklets
http://cdb.io/1LegNUu
35
There’s Hope!