The Space Report 2014

2 0 1 4
The Authoritative Guide
to Global Space Activity
Overview, Table of Contents, Index of Exhibits
OVERVIEW
2 0 1 4
The dynamic nature of the universe is on display in this Hubble–Chandra composite image. Galaxy ESO 137-001 appears
to be “leaking” its gas through a process called ram pressure stripping as it plunges through the Norma galaxy cluster.
Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)
Overview
Introduction |
The past year has seen substantial growth in space technology and capabilities.
A vibrant commercial sector has led the way with compelling products that provide significant value to
customers around the globe. Despite budget constraints in some countries, governments have continued
to invest heavily in space agencies, exploration programs, and the further development of commercial
capabilities. Interest in the space industry has increased and has created a surge of young excited
talent, providing the building blocks for future success. Venture capital firms and other investors are
demonstrating interest in the potential of space to introduce world-changing technologies. For all of
these reasons, the outlook for the space sector is very bright in the years to come.
1.0 | Space Products and Services
Space products and services continue to become more readily available and integrated into daily life for billions of
people. Some technologies rely on space assets to deliver their benefits, such as communication or navigation devices,
whereas other technologies can claim a space heritage but have been spun off and no longer require space systems in
order to function properly.
Across the many fields of activity that benefit from space technology, a common theme is emerging. Customers are
demanding, and receiving, greater control over the way they interact with space products and services. This shift in
power is not unique to the space industry—it is a fundamental change that is happening across multiple technology
markets. The ability to exercise a greater element of control and input, and to create interfaces between space and
other forms of information technology, will both improve the adoption rate of space technology and provide space
companies with a wealth of data on where to focus their efforts.
EXHIBIT 1. Global Space Activity, 2013
Commercial Space Products
and Services
$32.84 B
(11%)
$41.26 B
(13%)
Commercial Infrastructure
and Support Industries
$122.58 B
(39%)
U.S. Government Space
Budgets
Non-U.S. Government
Space Budgets
$117.49 B
(37%)
Total: $314.17 Billion
Another way the public is interacting with the space
community is through government- or industrysponsored competitions to develop new applications.
By harnessing the talent from a broader community,
the space industry gains creative new techniques that
it can use and potential goods and services that it can
provide based on existing space systems. Regardless of
whether insight is gained from competitions or ongoing
interactions with current customers, the companies that
are most likely to be successful in the long term are those
that are responsive to their customers’ needs and desire
for increasingly integrated technologies.
© Space Foundation
2.0 | The Space Economy
The global space economy grew by 4% in 2013, reaching a new record of $314.17 billion. The majority of this growth,
both in absolute terms and as a percentage, took place on the commercial side of the economy. Commercial products,
services, infrastructure, and support industries all add up to slightly more than three-quarters of the space economy,
with government spending constituting the remainder. Overall government spending declined by 1.7% in 2013, as
significant cuts in the U.S. space budget were only partly offset by growth in the space budgets of other countries.
Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity declined in 2013, with 24 space-related transactions compared to 30 in 2012.
This change was in line with global defense M&A trends, as companies exercised caution in response to uncertainty
4
The Space Report 2014
Overview
in government budgets for aerospace and defense activities. As uncertainty begins to recede in the United States and
elsewhere, and as global demand for satellite services continues to increase, it is likely that M&A activity will rise again in
the near future.
Investor confidence in the outlook for publicly traded space companies is evidenced by the robust performance of the
Space Foundation Indexes in 2013. The indexes track the performance of space stocks listed on U.S. exchanges, and they
experienced gains for the year of 34–48%, which compares favorably to 30% for the S&P 500 and 38% for the NASDAQ.
EXHIBIT 2. Space Foundation Indexes Performance vs. Other Market Indexes, 2013
150
145
Space Foundation Index
Space Foundation Infrastructure Index
Space Foundation Services Index
140
NASDAQ Composite
S&P 500
Index Value (12/31/12 = Base 100)
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
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3.0 | Space Infrastructure
The majority of the 81 launch attempts in 2013 were conducted by Russia, the United States, China, and Europe. This
level of activity was slightly higher than the average rate of 79 launches per year for the past five years. New launch
vehicles made their first flights (or first successful flights) in five countries—the Antares and Minotaur V in the United
States, Soyuz 2.1v in Russia, Kuaizhou in China, Epsilon in Japan, and KSLV-1 (also called Naro-1) in Korea.
The number of satellites launched to orbit in 2013 increased by nearly two-thirds compared to 2012. This was largely due
to a significant uptick in the number of satellites with masses below 91 kilograms (200 pounds). These microsatellites
constituted more than half of the 197 satellites launched in 2013. Many of the microsatellites were short-lived technology
demonstrations, but there is a considerable degree of interest in future possibilities for constellations of small satellites
that provide valuable services on an ongoing basis.
Downward pressure on launch prices and cost-saving advances in satellite technology have combined to open the
door for small and midsize space companies to enter the market, providing new niche services and solutions to a
growing number of customers. These companies are well-positioned to serve the increasing demand for bandwidth
and services across regions that expect to see large population growth, such as Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. In
some cases, smaller companies will compete directly with existing large service providers, while in other cases they will
The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity
5
Overview
form partnerships or be acquired. The incumbents have also noted the trend in demand and are responding to the shift
in value away from infrastructure and networks and toward user equipment and content. This focus on the end-user
experience will be a major market driver in the years to come.
4.0 | Workforce and Education
Workforce trends in different countries varied significantly, as the U.S. space workforce contracted for the sixth year in
a row, in contrast with growth in Europe and Japan. The hundreds of thousands of skilled employees who make up the
space workforce continue to be drawn from a pool of highly skilled individuals who frequently have advanced levels of
education and training in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). In the United States, the space
workforce declined by 3.5% from 2011 to 2012, the most recent year for which data is available. Several factors likely
contributed to this change, including the end of the Space Shuttle Program in 2011, post-recession tightening of budgets,
and uncertainty about future federal funding for space projects.
At the government level, NASA faces challenges related to an aging workforce, which the agency is working to address
by recruiting more young workers. These efforts have been successful to the extent that the number of workers under the
age of 35 is on the rise. However, as of the start of fiscal year 2014, the number of NASA employees eligible to retire at
any moment was greater than the number of employees under 35. Although detailed demographic information on the
U.S. national security space workforce is unavailable, it is possible that there are similar issues with aging, as more than
30% of the broader Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce was eligible for retirement as of September 2011.
In Europe, space industry employment increased in 2012 for the seventh consecutive year, with growth of 1.5%. The
European workforce is concentrated in five countries—France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Spain—which
collectively account for more than 85% of European space employees. The Japanese industry workforce grew by 11%
in 2012, continuing its multiyear growth from a low point in 2008. A different trend can be seen at the Japan Aerospace
Exploration Agency (JAXA), which has shed nearly 15% of its workforce over the past 10 years. However, JAXA has a
healthy demographic profile that bodes well for the future, with only 14% of its workforce over the age of 54 and 22%
under 35.
5.0 | Perspective
In a future market with more players and lower barriers to entry, technology advancement is opening a larger number of
applications in space. The space industry is evolving rapidly to take advantage of the opportunities presented in multiple
sectors. Rather than undercutting each other by competing on price alone, space companies are emphasizing the
creation of new forms of value for their customers. By differentiating the services that are offered, and focusing on the
unique benefits that space systems provide, the industry has found ways to meet the challenges presented by terrestrial
service providers that are edging in on some markets that have been traditionally dominated by space.
As governments look to the future of space exploration, a variety of policy discussions are looming with regard to
human and robotic activities. Critical decisions regarding the International Space Station and other human spaceflight
programs are expected to be made in the next year or two, potentially shaping the path of exploration for decades
to come. The environment for robotic exploration is also in a state of flux, as emerging space powers such as India
transition away from a pure domestic focus to one that encompasses missions to Mars and other distant destinations.
Interest in space activity is expanding to levels of government below the national level, as states and regions within
countries seek to expand their space industries and develop solutions specific to local needs. The investments in
economic development agencies and space applications provide yet another illustration of the increasing accessibility
and desirability of space. When viewed in combination with the customer-oriented actions of the commercial sector, it is
clear that space is no longer the domain of a select few—space is for everyone.
6
The Space Report 2014
Table of Contents
Overview................................................................................................................................................... 3
1.0 | Space Products and Services ............................................................................................... 7
1.0 Introduction........................................................................................................................... 8
1.1 The Mars Rover Programs, Benefiting Life on Earth.................................................... 8
1.2 How Space Products and Services are Used..................................................................11
1.3 Collaboration Between Space Agencies and the Public.............................................19
2 0 1 4
The Authoritative Guide
to Global Space Activity
Copyright © 2014
Space Foundation
All rights reserved. Printed
in the United States of
America. No part of this
book may be reproduced
in any manner whatsoever
without written permission
except in the case of brief
quotations embodied in
critical articles and reviews.
For more information,
please contact:
Space Foundation
4425 Arrowswest Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80907
1655 N. Fort Myer Drive,
Suite 910
Arlington, VA 22209
www.SpaceFoundation.org
All images used in this
2.0 | The Space Economy................................................................................................................23
2.0 Introduction.........................................................................................................................24
2.1 Commercial Infrastructure and Support Industries...................................................24
2.2 Commercial Space Products and Services....................................................................29
2.3 Government Space Budgets..............................................................................................37
2.4 Summary of Data................................................................................................................55
2.5 Space Investment Outlook................................................................................................57
2.6 Space Foundation Indexes Overview.............................................................................59
3.0 | Space Infrastructure..............................................................................................................65
3.0 Introduction.........................................................................................................................66
3.1 Orbital Human Spaceflight Systems...............................................................................66
3.2 Launch Vehicles...................................................................................................................69
3.3 Space Stations.......................................................................................................................78
3.4 Satellites.................................................................................................................................80
3.5 Ground Facilities.................................................................................................................96
3.6 Space Science Systems........................................................................................................99
4.0 | Workforce and Education...................................................................................................101
4.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................................102
4.1 U.S. Space Workforce.......................................................................................................102
4.2 European Space Workforce.............................................................................................110
4.3 Japanese Space Workforce...............................................................................................111
4.4 Other Space Employment...............................................................................................111
4.5 Global Space-Related Education Trends......................................................................112
5.0 | Perspective.............................................................................................................................121
5.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................................122
5.1 An Evolving Space Industry:
Commoditization, Differentiation, and the Rise of Regional Operators..............122
5.2 Changing Context in Government Space Programs:
National, Regional, and Local........................................................................................133
5.3 Conclusion..........................................................................................................................145
their respective owners.
Authors and Contributors......................................................................................................................147
Endnotes.....................................................................................................................................................148
Index of Exhibits.......................................................................................................................................158
A Snapshot: The Global Space Economy in 2013............................................................................160
ISBN-13: 978-0-9789993-7-7
ISBN-10: 0-9789993-7-1
www.TheSpaceReport.org
publication are property of
Index of Exhibits
Overview
4
5
EXHIBIT 1. Global Space Activity, 2013
EXHIBIT 2. Space Foundation Indexes Performance vs. Other Market Indexes, 2013
1.0 | Space Products and Services
8
10
10
14
21
EXHIBIT 1a. Topics Covered in Space Products and Services
EXHIBIT 1b. Overview of Space Activity, 2013
EXHIBIT 1c. Selected NASA and ESA Spinoffs, 2013
EXHIBIT 1d. Top 10 Uses for Landsat Data During October 2013
EXHIBIT 1e. Space Hackathon Events, 2013
2.0 | The Space Economy
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24
24
25
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25
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29
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34
37
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EXHIBIT 2a. Topics Covered in The Space Economy
EXHIBIT 2b. The Global Space Economy
EXHIBIT 2c. Global Space Activity, 2013
EXHIBIT 2d. Revenues for Space Infrastructure, 2013
EXHIBIT 2e. Orbital Launch Attempts, 2013
EXHIBIT 2f. Satellite Manufacturing Revenue Estimates, 2013
EXHIBIT 2g. NASA Commercial Crew Funding
EXHIBIT 2h. Space Insurance Industry Estimates, 1994–2013
EXHIBIT 2i. Revenues for Commercial Space Products and Services, 2013
EXHIBIT 2j. North American Direct-to-Home Television Revenue, 2013
EXHIBIT 2k. Earth Observation Revenue Estimates, 2007–2013
EXHIBIT 2l. European Satellite Navigation Competition Special Award Winners, 2013
EXHIBIT 2m. Government Space Budgets, 2013
EXHIBIT 2n. Government Space Budget Growth, 2013
EXHIBIT 2o. U.S. Government Agency Space Budgets, 2013
EXHIBIT 2p. NASA Fiscal Year 2015 Budget Request
EXHIBIT 2q. Funding for Major U.S. National Security Space Programs, Fiscal Years 2011–2014
EXHIBIT 2r. Canadian Space Agency Spending Profile by Program Activity
EXHIBIT 2s. Space Spending as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Selected Countries
EXHIBIT 2t. Budget Transfers Among EC, EUMETSAT, and ESA
EXHIBIT 2u. Member States’ Contributions to the European Space Agency, 2013
EXHIBIT 2v. Comparison of ESA Contributions vs. National-only Expenditures, 2013
EXHIBIT 2w. European Space Agency Budget by Program, 2013
EXHIBIT 2x. CNES Planned Spending by Program Area, 2013 and 2014
EXHIBIT 2y. Italian Planned Space Spending by Program, National Only
EXHIBIT 2z. Indian Space Budgets
EXHIBIT 2aa. Japanese Space Spending by Agency, FY 2012–FY 2014
EXHIBIT 2bb. South Korean Planned Space Spending, by Program, 2010-2013
EXHIBIT 2cc. Space Budgets of Selected Emerging Countries, 2013
EXHIBIT 2dd. Global Space Activity Revenues and Budgets, 2013
EXHIBIT 2ee. Space-Related Transactions in 2013, Chronological Order by Announcement Date
EXHIBIT 2ff. Space Foundation Index vs. Other Market Indexes
EXHIBIT 2gg. Space Foundation Indexes vs. Other Market Indexes
EXHIBIT 2hh. Space Foundation Indexes Performance vs. Other Market Indexes, 2013
EXHIBIT 2ii. Space Foundation Index Returns vs. Benchmarks
EXHIBIT 2jj. Space Foundation Infrastructure Index Returns vs. Benchmarks
EXHIBIT 2kk. Space Foundation Services Index Returns vs. Benchmarks
EXHIBIT 2ll. Composition of the Space Foundation Indexes for 2013
3.0 | Space Infrastructure
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75
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81
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EXHIBIT 3a. Topics Covered in Space Infrastructure
EXHIBIT 3b. Milestones in Chinese Human Spaceflight
EXHIBIT 3c. Commercial Satellite and Launch Forecasts, 2014–2022
EXHIBIT 3d. Geosynchronous (GSO) and Non-geosynchronous (NGSO) Historical Commercial Launches
and Launch Forecast, 2013
EXHIBIT 3e. U.S. Orbital Launches, 2013
EXHIBIT 3f. Russian Orbital Launches, 2013
EXHIBIT 3g. Predicted Angara Performance
EXHIBIT 3h. Chinese Orbital Launches, 2013
EXHIBIT 3i. Other Orbital Launches, 2013
EXHIBIT 3j. Number of Launches Attempted and Payload Mass Aboard Attempted Launches, 2000-2013
EXHIBIT 3k. Space Stations
EXHIBIT 3l. Satellites Successfully Launched by Mission Type, 2013
EXHIBIT 3m. Payloads Successfully Launched by Mass Classification, 2013
The Space Report 2014
Index of Exhibits
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EXHIBIT 3n. Applications of Satellite Systems
EXHIBIT 3o. GEO Commercial Communications Satellite Capacity Launched, 2008–2013 (As of November 12, 2013)
EXHIBIT 3p. Top 25 Fixed Satellite Services Operators by Revenue, 2013
EXHIBIT 3q. Mobile Satellite Services Operators, 2013
EXHIBIT 3r. Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Systems, December 2013
EXHIBIT 3s. The Planned Series of Sentinel Satellites
EXHIBIT 3t. Civilian Weather Satellites
EXHIBIT 3u. Spaceports in Operation or Development, 2013
4.0 | Workforce and Education
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EXHIBIT 4a. Topics Covered in Workforce and Education
EXHIBIT 4b. Space Workforce Trends in the United States, Europe, and Japan
EXHIBIT 4c. Number of U.S. Space Employees at Selected Companies
EXHIBIT 4d. U.S. Space Industry Employment by Sector, 2002, 2007, 2011, and 2012
EXHIBIT 4e. U.S. Space Industry Core Employment, 2002–2013
EXHIBIT 4f. U.S. Space Industry Workforce and U.S. Total Workforce, 2002–2013
EXHIBIT 4g. U.S. Space Industry Salaries and Real Salary Growth by Sector, 2007–2012
EXHIBIT 4h. Top Five States by Space Industry Average Annual Salary, 2012
EXHIBIT 4i. NASA Civil Servant Workforce, FY 2004–2014
EXHIBIT 4j. NASA Civil Servant Workforce Age Profiles Over Time
EXHIBIT 4k. NASA Net Accessions (Number of Individuals Hired Minus Number Lost) by Age and Percentage Change
in NASA Workforce, FY 2009–2013
EXHIBIT 4l. NASA Civil Servant Workforce Demographics, Start of FY 2014
EXHIBIT 4m. U.S. Military and Intelligence Space Workforce, 2013
EXHIBIT 4n. U.S. Space-Related Occupations and Projected Growth Rates
EXHIBIT 4o. European Space Industry Employment, 2002–2012
EXHIBIT 4p. European Space Industry Employment by Sector, 2007–2012
EXHIBIT 4q. European Space Industry Employment by Country, 2007–2012
EXHIBIT 4r. European Space Workforce Demographics, 2012
EXHIBIT 4s. ESA Workforce Demographics, 2013
EXHIBIT 4t. Japanese Space Industry Employment, 2002–2012
EXHIBIT 4u. Japanese Space Industry Employment by Sector, 2007–2012
EXHIBIT 4v. JAXA Workforce, 2003–2013
EXHIBIT 4w. JAXA Space Workforce Demographics, 2013
EXHIBIT 4x. Global Space Agency Employment, 2013
EXHIBIT 4y. Percentage of Students at Key Levels of Proficiency, PISA 2012
EXHIBIT 4z. Average PISA Mathematics and Science Scores and Gender Differences in Selected Countries, 2012
EXHIBIT 4aa. Percentage of Eighth Grade Students Meeting TIMSS 2011 International Benchmarks, Selected Countries
EXHIBIT 4bb. Average TIMSS Eighth Grade Mathematics and Science Scores in Selected Countries, 2011
EXHIBIT 4cc. TIMSS Scores and Percentage of Eighth Grade Students Meeting Advanced Benchmark
EXHIBIT 4dd. NAEP 2011 Math and Science Performance by Race
EXHIBIT 4ee. Entry Rates in Tertiary Education by Gender and Field of Education, 2011
EXHIBIT 4ff. STEM First-Degree Graduates by Country, 2000–2010
EXHIBIT 4gg. Percentage of Overall and STEM First Degrees Earned by Women, 2010
EXHIBIT 4hh. STEM Doctoral Graduates by Country, 2000–2010
EXHIBIT 4ii. U.S. Science and Engineering Bachelor’s, Master’s, and Doctoral Degrees, 1966–2010
EXHIBIT 4jj. Percentage of All Degrees and STEM Degrees Earned by Women, 1966 and 2010
EXHIBIT 4kk. Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering Bachelor’s, Master’s, and Doctoral Degrees, 1966-2010
5.0 | Perspective
122
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EXHIBIT 5a. Topics Covered in Perspective
EXHIBIT 5b. Topics Related to an Evolving Space Industry
EXHIBIT 5c. Stages of Industry Commoditization
EXHIBIT 5d. Deployment of High Throughput Satellite (HTS) and Non-HTS Capacity, 2003–2017
EXHIBIT 5e. Installed Base of GNSS Devices by Region
EXHIBIT 5f. Price Trends in Commercial Satellite Imagery, 2004–2012
EXHIBIT 5g. Approximate Average Commercial Launch Price
EXHIBIT 5h. Cumulative Number of Nations Operating or Manufacturing First Satellites
EXHIBIT 5i. Topics Related to a Changing Context in Government Space Programs
EXHIBIT 5j. International Space Exploration Common Goals and Objectives
EXHIBIT 5k. Countries that have Participated in ISS Research and Education Activities
EXHIBIT 5l. Planned Robotic Missions to Future Human Destinations by GER Participants
EXHIBIT 5m. NASA Contract Spending by State, Fiscal Year 2012
EXHIBIT 5n. Potential State-level Impacts of Reductions in NASA Spending
EXHIBIT 5o. State-level Space Development Agencies
EXHIBIT 5p. Indian State-sponsored Space Application Centers
The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity
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