Western Canada`s Freshwater in a Changing Climate – Presentation

Western Canada`s Freshwater in a Changing Climate – Presentation

tĞƐƚĞƌŶĂŶĂĚĂ͛Ɛ&ƌĞƐŚǁĂƚĞƌŝŶĂŚĂŶŐŝŶŐůŝŵĂƚĞ D.W. Schindler E͘ŵĞƌŝĐĂŝŶĂ͞'ƌĞĞŶŚŽƵƐĞ
ŽŵŝŶĂƚĞĚ͟tŽƌůĚ͍ 2 x CO2 Current 4 x CO2 Environics Canadian Poll 28 Sept 2015 Why? Economics as a Religion? Silencing Science and Environmental Groups? Friends of Science Billboard in Calgary Contrarian Propaganda? The Myth of Abundance: Canada has a lot of water Three million lakes Several great lakes ‡ But Average precipitation only slightly exceeds evaporation, so most large water bodies are renewed very slowly. In the past, evaporation has exceeded precipitation in many periods, so that lake levels decline over time
. Table 1. Renewable water resources for five countries with large water supplies 3
Supply (km per Percentage of
year)
world supply
B razil
5,418
12.4
Russian
F ederation
4,313
10.0
C anada
2,850
6.5
United States
2,818
6.4
C hina
2,812
6.4
Schindler 2009 Limnol. Oceanogr., Modified from Sprague (2007). ¾60% of Global standing water is in Boreal regions Ave. Annual Runoff, mm unknown 100-­‐199 50-­‐99 <50 Adapted from Hydrological Atlas of Canada , 1978
Relative change in summer flow in the Peace and Oldman Rivers
At Peace River and Lethbridge, AB
200
Peace River (Peace River) - 42.1%
180
Oldman River (Lethbridge) - 57.1%
% of initial flow
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Year
Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS 1970
1980
1990
2000
Relative change in summer flow in the South
Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon, SK
160
140
% of initial flow
120
(-83.6%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS 1950
1960
Year
1970
1980
1990
2000
Irrigation Water Use by Province-­‐2010-­‐Stats Canada Water Quality-­‐ S. Sask. River 31 reaches-­‐ Alberta Environment Levels-­‐ Endorheic Prairie Lakes D. Sauchyn et al. PARC project Table 2. Historical changes in yearly persistence and maximum depth of snowpacks in the WPP
(Environment Canada CDCD database).
Days with snowpack (yr-1)
Site
Ft Smith
Ft Chipewyan
Slave Lake
Banff
Calgary
Medicine Hat
Lethbridge
Prince Albert
Saskatoon
Regina
Period
1956-2003
1963-1993
1971-2003
1956-2003
1956-2003
1956-2003
1962-2003
1956-2003
1956-2003
1956-2003
Absolute
change
-7.7
N/S
-39.0
N/S
6.3
-25.3
N/S
-16.2
-23.3
-24.0
%
Change
-3.6
-24.7
4.4
-23.1
-9.4
-14.3
-15.0
Maximum snowpack
Absolute
change (cm)
N/S
N/S
-26.8
-32.3
N/S
-9.9
-18.3
-29.8
-10.4
-32.4
%
Change
-54.1
-61.3
-38.1
-63.5
-52.4
-31.1
-54.7
Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS Žǁ'ůĂĐŝĞƌŝŶϭϴϵϳ͙ Source: John Collie, Whyte Museum, Banff AB ͙ĂŶĚŝŶϮϬϬϮ (Source: Graeme Pole, 2003) Robson Glacier Clarke et al. 2015 Nature Geosciences Modeled changes in mean annual temperature in the western
Canadian Prairie Region
(CGCM-2A; CCIS Project, University of Victoria, Canada
12
Mean annual temperature (C)
Baseline
2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Mean
10
+ 6.5ƒ C from 1961 ʹ 1990 average 8
6
4
2
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Year
Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS 2050
2070
2090
2110
2090-­‐2099 Fire Severity ʹ NRCan Greenland Ice Loss-­‐NOAA 2015 Cougar Creek flooding Canmore, AB, 20 June 2013 Cougar Creek, upstream of Canmore Engineers improve on Mother Nature. Cougar Creek , 2014. Lake Winnipeg Schindler et al. 2012. J. Gt. Lakes Res. Shortage of Water is Costly Agricultural Losses California -­‐ $1.84 billion-­‐2015 Washington -­‐ $1.2 billion -­‐ 2015 Cdn. Prairies -­‐ $1 billion -­‐2015 -­‐ $3.6 billion-­‐ 2001-­‐2002 drought Forest Fire Fighting BC-­‐ >$400 million-­‐2015 -­‐$300 million-­‐2014 -­‐$ 2.2 billion, 10 yr California-­‐$4 billion, 10 yr Floods Canmore-­‐Calgary -­‐$6 billion ʹ 2013 :ŽŚŶƐŽŶ͛Ɛ>ĂŶĚŝŶŐ-­‐ ?? -­‐2012 Red River Floods-­‐-­‐ $3 billion? Fisheries Calif-­‐ Declining coho and chinook salmon BC and AB-­‐ fishing closures, salmon and trout HEALTH-­‐ AIR QUALITY PM2.5 (24 hr) B.C. Air Quality Standard-­‐ 25 µg/M3 Golden B.C., late Aug 2015 ʹ 150-­‐200 Calgary, 25 Aug 2015 -­‐ 186 Beijing, China, 2 Oct. -­‐ 109 Los Angeles, 2 Oct. ʹ 38 New York, 2 Oct. ʹ 18 London UK, @ Oct. ʹ 76 Hannover, Germany, 2 Oct. ʹ 21 New Delhi, 2 Oct. ʹ170 Urban Canada, typical ʹ 10-­‐30 Calgary 24 Aug 2015 Calgary Herald 24 Aug Challenges-­‐ Ignorance and Science Illiteracy Complacency and Self Interest Lack of Strong Political Leadership t,d/^zKhZWZdz͛^W>EdK'd CANADA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD OFF FOSSIL FUELS AND LIVING SUSTAINABLY?