Steering the world – the driving force of China

Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 0 of 33
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 1 of 33
13.7.1956 SOP of Changchun No.1 AutoAutomotive Works (light truck)
Shanghai Auto Co. (SH760 Sedan) & Beijing Auto Co. with its Beijing 212, an early SUV
雷锋 (Lei Feng)
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 2 of 33
Steering the world - the driving force of China
Automotive Business Consulting (HK) Limited
香港汽车设备商务咨询有限公司: 香港 -上海 - 维也纳 - 胡志明市
Hong Kong – Shanghai – Vienna – HCM
2004 - 2009
Michael Sikora / 施迈克博士
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 3 of 33
6 Closing the gap to mature markets: Grow – Incorporate - Export
11 Market forcasts, a tough job for industry analysts...
22 Chinese OEM to conquer the European fortress
27 Don´t blame Chinese for copying cars !
31 Biz opportunities for Austrian companies
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 4 of 33
6 Closing the gap to mature markets: Grow – Incorporate - Export
11 Market forcasts, a tough job for industry analysts...
22 Chinese OEM to conquer the European fortress
27 Don´t blame Chinese for copying cars !
31 Biz opportunities for Austrian companies
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 5 of 33
Closing the gap to mature car markets I
Rapid growth of Chinese automotive industry ...
… by the number of years it took for China to produce 1 million, 2 million and 3 million cars ?
“It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation, South Korea 20 years and I think it will take
China as little as 10 to 15 years”
Giorgio Guigiaro, Car Designer (FAW Besturn B70, Brilliance BS4, BS4, FRV)
Only one out of 20 Chinese cititzen has a car
(But
every second German has got one)
2008 car stock (mio units)
2008 car production (mio. Units)
2008 car density (car per 1000 inhab.)
60,8
9,3
38
55
6,2
599
250
10,6
750
Source: HSO Motors Europe, Prof. Hans-Ulrich Sachs
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 6 of 33
Σ CN brand origin 2008: 30,7 %
Closing the gap: rapid market growth II
China´s global car dominance
China has overtaken US in 1-8/2009 in terms of sales to become the world's largest automotive market
2008: China exported 680,100 passenger cars (+ 11,1% on the previous year)
Ranking
1
2
3
4
Ranking
1
2
3
4
Country
Japan
USA
China
Germany
Country
Japan
China
USA
Germany
Source: Automotive News Europe, CAAM
Car production 2007
11.596.327
10.610.864
8.889.894
6.199.835
Imported passenger cars
410.100
Cars
110.100
Car production 2008
11.564.000
9.345.000
8.681.000
6.041.000
SUVs
Exported
30.5%
680.000
on 2007
cars in
2008
59.3%
on 2007
57.000
3-litre or higher
sedans
17.7%
on 2007
11.1%
on 2007
Sources: China Association of Automobile Manufactures / China Car Times
H1/2009: The Chinese car market accounted for by 23% of the world car market (H1/2008: 15%)
„The German market is not ready for Chinese cars“ XING Wenlin, GWM, GM for export business
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 7 of 33
Closing the gap: rapid market growth III
Car
MPV
SUV
Microand
minibus
Total
Sales 08/09
621,110
19,241
62,467
146,558
849,376
Sales 07/09
591,841
17,518
59,148
148,408
816,915
Sales 08/08
337,232
12,610
28,526
57,865
436,233
4.9%
9.8%
5.6%
-1.2%
4.0%
84.2%
52.6%
119.0%
153.3%
94.7%
Change on prev.
Month 2009
Change same
month last year
YTD Sales 09
4,399,816
127,185
401,802
1,238,043
YTD Sales 08
3,086,314
124,124
274,886
754,490
42.6%
2.5%
46.2%
64.1%
YTD Change on
previous year
Source: Chinese Passenger Car Association, August 09
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 8 of 33
China
6,166,846 surpassed
US 1-8/09
4,239,814
45.5%
Closing the gap: incorporate mature technology
OEM acquistion and technology transfer: MG & Rover, Ssangyong (Æ SAIC)
2009: GM-Hummer (ÆTengzheng?) Volvo (Æ Geely?),
2010: Which international OEM comes next ?
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 9 of 33
6 Closing the gap to mature markets: Grow – Incorporate - Export
11 Market forcasts, a tough job for industry analysts...
22 Chinese OEM to conquer the European fortress
27 Don´t blame Chinese for copying cars !
31 Biz opportunities for Austrian companies
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 10 of 33
Market forecasts, a tough job in China I
8/09: 11,5
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 11 of 33
Market forecasts: some experts failed... II
Only trust those forcasts/statistics you have forged yourself !
1/09: „2009 passenger vehicles growth will be -1% less (≈8%) then in 2008“
J.D.Power
42 % YTD 09 vs.08 !
1/09: „ 2009 passenger vehicles growth rate in China will be only 7 %
compared with the previous year“ CSM
5/01: „China needs at another 10 years to be capable
of exporting cars to Europe“
Prof. Jürgen Stockmar, MAGNA
5/01: „Chinese OEM shall have entered Austrian
Market in 2007“, Michael Sikora, ACVR
2001 Automobilforum, Graz
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 12 of 33
Market forecasts: was there a trend? III
Y2005
Y2006
Y2007
Y2008
Y2009
2008
522433
Trend ?
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Source: CPCA, China Passenger Car Association, 6.2.09
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 13 of 33
Oct
Nov
Dec
Unit: sold passenger vehicles
Market forecasts: will the trend continue ? IV
673055
643919
605328
702818
668507
632542
522433
Y2005
Y2006
Y2007
Y2008
Y2009
472687
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Source: CPCA, China Passenger Car Association, 10.9.09
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 14 of 33
Oct
Nov
Dec
Unit: sold passenger vehicles
Market forecasts: Ups & Downs in recent years V
843 828
42.0%
700
40.0%
Total vehicle domestic demand
(Unit: 10K)
Rate of Growth (％)
577
34.0%
509
446
21.3%20.2%
333
238
210
187
152 162 164 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
14.0%13.0%
7.0%
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 15 of 33
2007
08.1-11
Source: Beijing State Information Center, Dec 08
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
2.0%
1998
1997
1996
3.0%
8.3%
Market forecasts: Strong government support V
• Car purchase subsidies boost sales
- 500 mio € subsidies to farmers who buy vehicles
with small engines (< 1.3l)
Î
- Passenger vehicles with engines < 1.6l: 50% discount on the purchase tax
- Scrapping premium plan: 450 – 900 USD for trading in old car to
special scrapping center (biz opportunity !)
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 16 of 33
Market forecasts: OEM growth analyses 2007
SUV
Growth
SAIC
MPV
(External)
Lifan
BYD
GTMC
GWM DHMC
JAC
BHMC
CA-SZK
CFMA
DPCA
DNPV
DHMC
FHMC
Dongfeng Yueda Kia
FAW Haima Motor
FAW-Toyota
Guangzhou HONDA
Guangzhou TOYOTA
Tianjin FAW
SVW
Brilliance
Fast
Medium
DYK(M)
FHMC
FTMC
GHMC
GTMC
TFC
CFMA
FAW Car
Beijing HYUNDAI
Chang’an SUZUKI
Chang´an FORD
Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen
Dongfeng NISSAN
Dongfeng HONDA Motor
Geely
FTMC
Chery
DNPV
FAW-VW
DPCA
GHMC
SGM
OEM Safety Line
Chang'an
CA-SZK
Slow
TFC
Changhe
Hafei
Week
Chinese OEM
DYKM
BHMC
Medium
Strong
Jap. & Korean JV OEM
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 17 of 33
Competence
(Internal)
EU & US JV OEM
Market forecasts: OEM growth analyses 2008
Growth
(External)
BHMC
CA-SZK
CFMA
DPCA
DNPV
DHMC
Fast
Beijing HYUNDAI
Chang’an SUZUKI
Chang´an FORD
Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen
Dongfeng NISSAN
Dongfeng HONDA Motor
Zotye
DYK
BYD
DYK(M)
FHMC
FTMC
GHMC
GTMC
TFC
SAIC
Dongfeng Yueda Kia
FAW Haima Motor
FAW-Toyota
Guangzhou HONDA
Guangzhou TOYOTA
Tianjin FAW
FAW
DHMC
Lifan
FTMC
DNPV
BHMC
SGMW
GWM
Medium
CA-SZK
CFM
BMW
FAW VW
SGM
SVW
CFMA
Changhe
Hafei
Slow
Geely
TFC
GTMC GHMC
OEM Safety Line
JAC
Chery
Chang'an
FHMC
Weak
Chinese OEM
DPCA
Brilliance
Medium
Strong
Jap. & Korean JV OEM
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 18 of 33
Competence
(Internal)
EU & US JV OEM
Market forecasts: OEM growth analyses H1/09
SEM
DYK(M)
FHMC
FTMC
GHMC
GTMC
TFC
BHMC
CA-SZK
CFMA
DPCA
DNPV
DHMC
SAIC
Lifan
Growth
(External)
BYD
GWM
BHMC
JAC
Chang'an
Fast
Changhe
DNPV
SVW
FAW
CFMA
Geely DYK Brilliance
DPCA
Medium
FAW VW
TFC
Zotye
Dongfeng Yueda Kia
FAW Haima Motor
FAW-Toyota
Guangzhou HONDA
Guangzhou TOYOTA
Tianjin FAW
Beijing HYUNDAI
Chang’an SUZUKI
Chang´an FORD
Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen
Dongfeng NISSAN
Dongfeng HONDA Motor
SGM
GHAC
DHAC
Chery
CA-SZK
Slow
Hafei
Weak
Chinese OEM
BMW
OEM Safety Line
GTMC
FHMC
FTMC
Medium
Stong
Jap. & Korean JV OEM
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Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 19 of 33
Competence
(Internal)
EU & US JV OEM
•
Axle Y: 200X production growth rate ◄► growth rate, same period last year
(based on CAAM data)
•
Axle X: company growth strength, incl. R&D capability, marketing, finance, HR
•
Pie diameter represents passenger car production data (2007, 2008, H1/09)
•
Pie color: darkest area: passenger cars, lighter: MPV, the lightest area: SUV
•
Horizontal green line: 0% growth rate, each grid line up means 10% growth more.
•
Green curve: means the safety line, OEMs below it have risks to be merged or get
out of business.
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 20 of 33
6 Closing the gap to mature markets: Grow – Incorporate - Export
11 Market forcasts, a tough job for industry analysts...
22 Chinese OEM to conquer the European fortress
27 Don´t blame Chinese for copying cars !
31 Biz opportunities for Austrian companies
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 21 of 33
Great Wall entered DACH region I
Importer for Italy: Eurasia Motor Company www.eurasiamotor.com
Products: Hover H3 SUV (2WD, 21.000 €), got Italian N1 type approval
Wingle/Steed PickUp in Italy truck got EU type approval from UK VCA
First European sales: Hover to Italy (500 units), Wingle Pickup (600 units), Florid (09: 500 units shipped to Algeria)
Current Export focus: Russia, South Africa, Central and South America, Australia and New Zealand (130 dealers)
European Marketing: 2006 Paris motor show, 2006 Bologna motor show
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 22 of 33
Brilliance entered DACH region II
EU-Importer: HSO Motors, Dt. GF (Prof. Hans-Ulrich Sachs)
150 dealers: Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Estonia, Lithuania
Products: BS4 mid-size sedan (16.000 €) & wagon (18 - 19.000€), BS6 large salon
Sales 07-09: about 4,000 cars (Germany: 1.000 units) target 2010: 10.000 units in EU
Euro NCAP: (old): ***/0 (no ESP) for BS4
Europa Marketing: Geneva motorshow, IAA Frankfurt, AMI Leipzig, Paris motorshow
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 23 of 33
BYD to entered DACH region III
Global No.1 supplier of NiCad/Li-Ion batteries for laptops (65% share), mobile phones (35% share)
Future EU-Importers: import contracts with 10 European distributors
BYD-Offices in Europe: Netherlands, Denmark, Hungary, Romania, EU Market Entry: 2011
Warren Buffet invested 230m US$ for 9.9% market share, BYD acronym for …?
Europa Marketing: Geneva motors show 2008 (ABC prepared German press release), EV e6 MPV export car
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 24 of 33
Don´t blame China for „copying“ cars...
2005 GM and its Korean subsidiary Daewoo settled a lawsuit with Chery over the design of Chery QQ
BUT GM made itself vulnerable to copying by failing to apply for formal IPR protection
2009 German BMW took legal action against China Automobile Ltd. to stop CEO model
import from OEM Shuanghuan
2009/9: Interim injunction of Daimer for EU import stop of Shuanghuan Noble denied by
EU Greek court !
But History repeats itself....
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 25 of 33
6 Closing the gap to mature markets: Grow – Incorporate - Export
11 Market forcasts, a tough job for industry analysts...
22 Chinese OEM to conquer the European fortress
27 Don´t blame Chinese for copying cars !
31 Biz opportunities for Austrian companies
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 26 of 33
... as VW Beetle has an IPR history too !
1938 – 2003: 21,529.464 VW Beetle (VW Type 1) produced Î basis for VW to become a global car maker
1932 Beetle prototypes, developed by Ferdinand Porsche [FP] , originally with a water-cooled 5-cylinder engine
1935 Adolf Hitler gave order to FP to develop the “Volkswagen” for 990 German Reichsmark
1936 Introduction of “Peoples Car” at Berlin car show
1937 Road tests on first prototypes, type VW 30
1939 Cornerstone of VW factory in Wolfsburg, producing
a handful cars until 2nd WW broke out
1940 Military version “Kübelwagen and Schwimmwagen”
52.000 KW and 14,000 SW built until 1944
1939: VW Type 1
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 27 of 33
1937: VW 30 „Beetle“
The VW Beetle, an international IPR case II
Bela Barenyi
Tatra T97
1936 Adolf Hitler called the Czech Tatra T97 “the kind of car I want on my highways (!)”
1925 Austrian born car designer Bela Barenyi published his master work at Vienna Technikum: “Kommender
Volkswagen mit optimaler Triebwerks-Kombination” describing whole Beetle design,incl. powertrain
1932 Barenyi did not patent his theses and introduced his idea to Ferdinand Porsche, when he applied for a job
1934 Ferdinand Porsche introduced “his” ideas to Chairman Adolf Hitler
1936 VW “KdF Wagen” Type 1 Beetle resemble Tatra T97, sharing streamlined design and engine technology
(four-cylinder, horizontally-opposed, air-cooled engine)
1938 Ferdinand Porsche admitted: “I have looked over the shoulders of Tatra´s Chief Engineer Hans Ledwinka”
also an Austrian
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 28 of 33
The VW Beetle, an international IPR case III
1938 Czechoslovakian Tatra launched an IPR lawsuit against VW;
Ferdinand Porsche willing to settle
1939 IPR law suit was stopped when Germany annexed
Czech Republic
1939 Car production was stopped after 508 Tatra T97
rolled of assembly line
Bela Barenyi, as Chief Engineer
for Mercedes-Benz
1951 Barenyi sued Volkswagen for IPR infringement on Beetle design and won IPR law suit at
patent court in Mannheim
1961 Volkswagen paid 3 million Deutschmark compensation to Czech OEM Tatra
Conclusion: VW as new enterprise behaved similar as emerging Chinese carmakers today !
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 29 of 33
6 Closing the gap to mature markets: Grow – Incorporate - Export
11 Market forcasts, a tough job for industry analysts...
22 Chinese OEM to conquer the European fortress
27 Don´t blame Chinese for copying cars !
31 Biz opportunities for Austrian companies
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 30 of 33
Biz opportunities for Austrian supplier I
Establish a LCC sourcing base to deal with cost pressure in Europe
Work with German OEM/Tier-1 (VW, Daimler, BMW) as local supplier
Suppport Chinese OEM/tier-1 to close EU-NCAP 09 & Euro V emission
standad to close tech gap for export of Chinese OEM
中 Pedestrian Safety: Solutions/test pads ÎRedesign of motor hood & front bumper
中 Driver assistance: ESP, seat belt reminder, cruise control with
speed limited, airbag initiator
Î MEMS for roll-over detection,..
中 Side/Back Impacts: active headrest to avoid whiplash
Î pyrotechn. actuators
中 Euro V Emission compliant engines Î powertrain engineering:design, simulation,
upgrade of petrol and diesel engines
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 31 of 33
Biz opportunities: New Energy car/EV II
Established Chinese OEM announced ambitious plans for EV market
BYD
CHERY
ZOTYE
Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery,
cooperate with Volkswagen
Group in China
Public sales in
P.R.China
export to USA and Europe
market
Export E6 and F6DMto Israeli
BYD E6 hybrid power/MPV,
200,000~300,000 RMB
CHERY S18 & WanXiang's
battery,
70,000 RMB
Chery RIICH M1-EV
<70,000 RMB
2008EV 120,000 RMB
GEELY
Geely Panda <100,000 RMB
HAFEI &
QINGYUAN cooperate since 2007
GWM
Saibao EV, export to
USA for 200,000 RMB
GW Kulla, about
600,000~700,000 yuan
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 32 of 33
New ABC-Office at 18th floor, 108m2
Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 33 of 33
Your Success in China is Our Obligation !
谢谢您
和气生财
Steering the world – the driving force of China
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Steering the world – the driving force of China
Austria Connect, September 2009, p. 35 of 33