DAINAM Securities

DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
DAINAM SECURITIES JOINT
STOCK COMPANY
From 15/06/2015 To 19/06 /2015
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WEEK FROM15/06 – 19/06/2015
Recommend
investors
to
continue
holding
high
proportion of stocks in their
portfolio. May consider to lock in
profit
when
VN-Index
approaching resistance level.
Important technical indicators also show that the
rally might remain between 15-19/ June as a fact
that RSI and MFI at the closing trading session were
64.28 and 67.03 correspondingly while MACD stood
above the Signal line and above the Zero level.
EMA25 line was above MA25 line, too. We think that
in such an uptrend investors should restructure
their portfolios in correction sessions. We expect
that VNIndex will trade around 580 – 591 points in
the week from 15-19/June.
NEWS REVIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM08-12/06/2015
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Gold price fluctuated in the
bottom of 1.5 years
Copywright @ DNSE
Last week, world gold price increased back slightly
but still in the bottom of 1 and half a years. Spot
price in Asia market at the end of the week was
1,187.2 USD/oz, increasing0.6 USD/oz compared to
previous day. Gold price increase was due to
depreciation of USD compared to other main
currencies. However, experts still do not find any
significant sources to predict the future movement
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
trend.
In domestic market, on 11/06, Doji listed SJC price
for Hanoi market of 34.7 million/oz and 34.74
million/oz bid-ask price respectively. Thus, price
gap between global and domestic market is broaden
at approximately 3.5 million an ounce.
Figure 1: Gold price in the last 1.5 years
Source: Nasdaq.com
World Bank lowered global
economic outlook
Copywright @ DNSE
The World Bank trimmed its global economic
growth outlook on Wednesday, warning that
developing markets faced a raft of headwinds
ranging from lower commodity prices to the
prospect of higher borrowing costs.The Washingtonbased lender now expects the world economy to
expand 2.8 percent in 2015, down from its January
projection of 3 percent, according to its bi-annual
Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report. It
maintained its growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
at 3.3 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.
“Developing countries were an engine of global
growth following the financial crisis, but now they
face a more difficult economic environment,” Jim
Yong Kim, group president at World Bank, said in a
statement.t downgraded its 2015 and 2016 growth
outlook for developing economies to 4.4 percent and
5.2 percent, from 4.8 percent and 5.3 percent
respectively.
Lower prices of oil and other commodities have
intensified the slowdown in several developing
countries which rely heavily on resource exports,
the World Bank said.
U.S economy continue to grow
Copywright @ DNSE
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits
remained below 300,000 for a 14th straight week, a
sign of labor market strength that will help fuel U.S.
growth.Jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 279,000 in
the week ended June 6, a Labor Department report
showed Thursday in Washington. The median
forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg
called for 275,000. The four-week average of initial
applications also crept up.
The data indicate employers are retaining workers
in anticipation of a pickup in demand this quarter
after a slow start to the year. Combined with a
spring spurt in payrolls, the employment picture
bodes well for household spending, the biggest part
of the economy.
Moreover, Ministry of trade report also show that
retail sales in May increased 1.2%, which is strong
improvement compared to 0.2% of previous month.
Those figures again confirm the growth of this
biggest economy.
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
DOMESTIC NEWS
Stock market highlights
Last week, stock market experienced blossom
trading in both exchanges. Both Vn-Index and HNXindex closed at higher point than last week,
especially the significant liquidity. In HOSE, VNIndex increased from 578 points to 582.73 points,
equivalent ot 0.52%. Liquidity on exchange
increased strongly with more than 152.5 million
trading units, which is 2,356 trillion VND. HNX
showed the same trend, closing at 88 points,
increased 1.42% compared to last week. Average
liquidity is 73 million units, equivalent to 912
billion, a rising of 32% in volume and 10% in value.
World bank revised Vietnam
economic growth forecast
The World Bank has revised its 2015 growth
forecast for Vietnam to 6%, up 0.5 percentage point
from its previous projection.
Vietnam’s growth rate will accelerate to 6% in 2016
and 6.5% in 2017, the bank says in its latest report,
mostly contributed by the production and export
sectors, as well as the favourable movements of
foreign investment.
At the same time, the organisation also expressed
growth forecast for East Asia region, which will be
6.7% in 2017 and kept stable during the next 2
years.
State budget is at risk as oil According to Ministry of Finance at conference on
price fall
“State budget revenue and expenses during the first
5 years and solution to the end of 2015”, the
Ministry has projected total state budget revenue for
2015 is 911.1 trillion. In which, domestic revenue
accounts for 638.6 trillion, revenue from crude oil is
93 trillion and revenue from export-import activities
is 175 trillion. This projection is made under
assumption that oil price would be 100 USD/barrel.
Thus, with the current decline in oil price, state
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
budget face substantial risk of imbalance during the
second half of the year.
Public debt –Weakness
Vietnam ranking
in In their most recent report, credit rating agency
Standard & Poor’s predicted that government debt
of Vietnam will increase with average speed of fewer
than 5% in the next 3 year. Debt/equity ratio will fall
from 46% to 43%. This figure for Fitch Ratings and
Moody’s is 49% and 45.5% respectively. According
to experts from these organizations, debt/GDP ratio
of Vietnam is still higher than the average of 42% for
similar ranking countries. The ratio in Indonesia is
24% while that of Bangladesh – country with same
BB- rating as us is less than 29%.
Thus, Fitch has been considering public finance is
one of the weaknesses in raking profile of Vietnam,
which would prevent Vietnam moving up the chart
without substantial improvement.
FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITIES
200
150
100
50
0
HOSE
HNX
-50
-100
-150
Net sell 31.38 billion on HOSE
Net buy 77 billion on HNX
Copywright @ DNSE
Last week on HOSE, foreign investor net sold
surprisingly the amount f more than 31.48
billion. They only come back to buy on the
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
last trading session with more than 157
billion. Most interested stocks last week
include SSI, GAS, VIC, KBC and NT2 while
HHS, DPM, HPG, EVE and PVD are net sold
strongly.
In contrast, on HNX, this group of investor
net buy strongly, pushed the index to
increase 1.24 point. Petroleum and real
estate stocks are continue to be the most
interested one, for example PVS, PVC, VND,
VCG and TIG. Meanwhile, strongest net sold
stocks last week are SCR, LAS, SHB, VKC and
VIX.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Liquidity of the market between 8-12 June remained strong with VNIndex closing the week
at 580 points. It was the first time since March,VNIndex broke its resistance around the
MA200 line. Liquidity, volume and candlestick structure all indicated that cash flows are
strongly poured into the market. Profit taking pressure has been quickly absorbed and
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 15/06/2015 to 19/06/2015
correction almost has taken place in intraday sessions.
Important technical indicators also show that the rally might remain between 15-19/ June
as a fact that RSI and MFI at the closing trading session were 64.28 and 67.03
correspondingly while MACD stood above the Signal line and above the Zero level. EMA25
line was above MA25 line, too. We think that in such an uptrend investors should
restructure their portfolios in correction sessions. We expect that VNIndex will trade
around 580 – 591 points in the week from 15-19/June
For more information, please
contact:
Statement of Disclaimer
-
Phuong My Hang Pham
Department of Analysis
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (04) 7304 7304 (ext201)
DAINAM Securities joint stock
company
Head office: 12A Floor, Centre
buldingHapulico Complex, Number
01 Nguyen HuyTuong, Thanh Xuan,
Ha Noi.
Tel: (04) 7304 7304
Fax: (04) 73 073 073
Website: www.dnse.com.vn
Copywright @ DNSE
Information contained on this report
based on the resources that DNSE
believed as accurate at the time, but
maybe updated, amended or superseded
by subsequent disclosures, or may be
outdated and inaccurate over time. DNSE
does not undertake any obligation to
insure the accuracy, updating of these
information.
- Recommendations on this report are
subjective views of analysts. Investors
using this report as source of reference
take full responsibility for their
investment decisions.
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