Christians - Lebanese Forces Official Website

Transcription

Public Opinion of
Lebanese Christians
December 2012
© 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and
may not bedisclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Content
1. Research Objectives
2. Methodology
3. Key Findings

Sample profile

Christians’ Fears & Concerns

Political Forces Assessment

Christians’ Expectations

Christians and Elections

Media Consumption Habits
4. Conclusions
2
1
Research
Objectives
Research Objectives
The main objective of this study was to better understand the opinion of the
Lebanese Christian voters regarding certain issues.
More specifically:

Identify their main concerns and fears.

Assess their perception towards political events, parties, and
people

Understand their aspirations for the future

Understand the importance of local and country issues

Understand what motivates / de-motivates them to vote or not

Identify their voting patterns
2
Methodology
Methodology

2000 interviews were conducted Face to Face.

The survey was done in 13 voting Cazas having a majority of
Christians, and not in all the Cazas.

Cazas of execution are: Aley, Beirut one, Baabda, Batroun,
Chouf, Jbeil, Jezzine, Kesrwan, Koura, Metn, Zahle & Zgharta.

The sample was representative of the Christian voters of each
Caza as per the voting registration lists, including both residents
and non residents of the Caza.

The fieldwork was done between 16th October –3rd December
by the specialized interviewers of IPSOS.

Each team of interviewers was directed by a full-time supervisor
who was responsible for the interviewers on the field.
3
Key Findings
Sample Profile
Age, Gender, Religion, Marital Status
Age
18-20
Religious/sectarian affiliation
Maronite
5%
69%
Greek Orthodox
21-34
27%
35-49
Greek Catholic
32%
50+
36%
9%
Armenian Orthodox
5%
Armenian Catholic
1%
Other Christian / Minorities
2%
Marital Status
Gender
Female
49%
14%
Divorced
1%
Widowed
3%
Male
51%
Single
34%
Married
62%
Political Activity
In the household
N = 2000
No one
84%
Myself
13%
Other family
members
12%
Myself
Other Family Member (s)
N = 262
N = 234
Lebanese
Forces
46%
Lebanese Forces
48%
Tayyar (FPM)
18%
Tayyar (FPM)
Tashnag party
17%
Kataeb
16%
Tashnag party
14%
Kataeb
12%
20%
Marada
3%
Marada
3%
Communist
party
2%
PNSS
2%
PNSS
1%
National Liberal
party
2%
Ramgavar
party
1%
Communist party
2%
Hunchak party
1%
Ramgavar party
1%
M7a. Who in your family including yourself is active in a political party? M7b. In which political party are you/they active?
Christians’
Fears &
Concerns
The Lebanese Identity
Proud
74%
Belonging
Pessimistic
Neutral
Optimistic
9%
6%
Significantly more among voters of Beirut
One more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Chouf
more than the other regions
5%
4%
Free
3%
Ashamed
3%
Lost
3%
Significantly more among voters of
Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, & Baabda
Significantly more among voters of
Zgharta more than the other regions
Q1a. How do you feel towards holding the Lebanese identity?
N = 2000
Feelings Toward Current Personal Situation
53%
Feeling significantly stronger among
female voters, and in Bcharre and Koura
N = 2000
26%
13%
6%
2%
I am happy, but
worried about
the future
I am unhappy and
worried about the
future
I am happy and
not worried about
the future
I am unhappy,
but not worried
about the future
Q2. In general, how do you feel regarding your current personal situation?
I don't know how
to feel / not sure
Current Main Concerns
Main Concerns
Security situation of the country/
weapons with individuals/ army
weakness
83%
Economic situation (expensiveness,
unemployment)
79%
47%
My personal financial / work
situation
The events in Syria & the Arab
countries
The political situation in Lebanon
(elections, leaders, government,
inter-Christians conflict
Fear for the future (migration of
youth, children's future, third age)
Significantly more in Bcharre and Beirut 1
N = 2000
My personal safety and that of my
family
My health and that of my family
Significantly more among women, and in
Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn and Jezzine
38%
35%
8%
4%
3%
First Mentioned
Main Concern
Security situation of the
country/ weapons with
individuals/ army…
Economic situation
(expensiveness,
unemployment)
22%
My health and that of my
family
My personal safety and
that of my family
My personal financial /
work situation
Q3. What are your main concerns these days?
41%
15%
10%
5%
Lebanon’s Greatest Danger Today
War: civil/ Sunni-Chia/ ME/ with Israel
16%
Significantly more among voters of Zgharta
& Baabda than the other regions
The declining economy
16%
Significantly more among young women and
voters of Chouf & Beirut 1
Hezbollah weapons
13%
The lack of the state's control on the
security situation
11%
The increased sectarian conflicts
5%
Inter-Christian divisions
5%
Lebanon getting involved in the
regional/Syrian crisis
4%
The illegitimate arms in the streets
4%
The corruption
4%
The increased presence of Salafists in
Lebanon
4%
The displacement of the Christians
Significantly more among
male voters of Bechare
Significantly more among women
3%
Q5. In your opinion, what is Lebanon’s greatest danger today?
N = 2000
Dangers on Your Future
Least dangerous
1 2 3
Most dangerous
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Chouf & Beirut 1
A declining economy
53%

1.89

2.02

1.78

2.03

2.00

2.35

2.12

2.08
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Baabda & Beirut 1
Weak Lebanese state
Weak, corrupt or inefficient
politicians
49%
Significantly more in Metn & Baabda
48%
Lebanese Christian divisions
45%
Terrorist attacks in Lebanon
33%
Hezbollah's weapons
29%
Increasing influence of Salafis in
Lebanon
20%
Salafis or Ikhwan taking over in
Syria
10%
Bachar Al Assad staying in power
6%

2.17
A civil war in Syria
6%

1.94
N = 2000
Q6. Please choose from the list the 3 statements that you consider dangerous on your future (circle in the column 1) and rank them from 1 to
3, where “1 = most dangerous” and “3 = least dangerous”, in terms of danger on your future (write in column 2)?
Christians in Lebanon
Agree with…
Interested in
Land sales present a danger on Christians
94%
Christians have a bright future in Lebanon
52%
The Lebanese Christians lost their power in Lebanon
34%
61%
Christians are in danger in Lebanon
27%
66%
82%
39%
75%
62%
58%
Christians should get closer to Shiites than to Sunnites
90% 10%
8%
89% 11%
34%
13%
18%
19%
22%
19%
56%
46%
47%
39%
17%
Yes
No
79%
21%
78%
22%
69%
64%
31%
36%
38%
76% 5%
61%
39%
61%
39%
23%
36%
25%
57%
26%
I am not sure
55%
45%
47%
53%
42%
Yes
N = 2000
25%
62%
11%
30%
20%
20%
74%
15%
80%
75%
33% 11%
19%
Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites
11%
13% 5%
12%
6%
94% 6%
51% 10%
Christians should get closer to all communities
Lebanese Christians should call for the change of the
Ta’ef agreement
Salafists are more dangerous than Hezbollah on
Christians
Lebanese Christians should protect as much as
possible Syrian Christians
Hezbollah is more dangerous than Salafists on
Christians
Lebanese Christians should work to have a state of
their own
Hezbollah should be allowed to set its own telecom
network
Christians and Druze should unite to protect each
other
94%
13%
26%
Lebanon should not interfere in what is happening in
Syria
Lebanese Christians are better off today than in 2004
4% 2%
58%
No
Q8a. I am going to read to you some statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you “agree” or “do not agree” with each of these statements? Q8b. I am
going to read to you again the same statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you are “interested” or “not interested” in each of these statements?
Christians Existence in Lebanon
Christians Existence in Lebanon is Being
Threatened?
N = 2000
Significantly more in
Zgharta, Baabda & Aley
Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn
No
34%
Yes
66%
Reasons why NOT
Reasons why YES
N = 679
N = 1321
The immigration of Christians
Christianity emerged from this region
and no one can remove us
45%
Christians are the core founders of
Lebanon
37%
They tried in 1975 and failed because
we resisted and we can do it again
The alliance between the Shiite and
Christians will protect us
14%
7%
The dramatic decrease in the
Christian population in Lebanon
The continuous struggle among
Christian political leaders
The increased power of Hezbollah in
Lebanon
The increased power of Salafists in
Lebanon
The absence of a prominent leader
to defend the Christians
The presence of illegitimate armed
forces
Salafists and Ikhwan taking over in
the neighboring countries
The Muslim majority in the
neighboring countries
The increasing growth of the Muslim
population
The Ta'ef agreement diminished the
role of Christians in Lebanon
All other sects are armed except the
Christians
The poor security situation
38%
32%
20%
20%
15%
12%
12%
8%
8%
8%
7%
5%
4%
Q9a. As a Lebanese Christian, do you feel that your existence in Lebanon is being threatened? Q9b. Why YES? Q9c. Why NOT?
Feelings Towards …
LOVE
Independence
1%
1%
99%
Freedom
98% 1%1%
Democracy
96% 3% 1%
N = 2000
Resistance
70%
Federalism
24%
Sectarianism
10%
SCARE
21%
48%
30%
2%
54%
I don’t care
3%
67% 2%
30%
I love it
9%
57%
39%
Integralism (Salafia)
1%
65% 4%
35%
Muslim Brotherhood 2%
6% 1%
19%
42%
Integrism (Oussoulia) 2%
Wilayat el Fakih
36%
24%
It scares me
Don’t know the meaning
Q13. On a scale where 1 = “love it”, 2 = “I don’t care”, and 3” It scares me”, can you please tell me how you feel regarding the following terms.
Political
Forces
Assessment
Government Performance
Government Performance
N = 2000
Zgharta & Koura
Significantly more in Bcharre,
Jbeil, Beirut 1 & Zahle
41%
41%
Identical
Worse (than previous)
18%
Better (than previous)
How Better?
N = 357
Good performance of
different ministries
How Identical?
How Worse?
N = 819
N = 824
44%
Bad security situation
Still same situation/ Unsecured
status
Worked towards the
citizens concerns and
vital needs
25%
Same economical situation
Better security situation/
stronger army/ war
avoided
Less corruption
Independent decision, no
more american control,
against international
tribunal
42%
21%
Driven to external decision
rather than to Lebanon
44%
74%
5%
Incompetent team
41%
Did not work towards the
citizens concerns and vital
needs
40%
Bad performance of
different ministries
18%
Corruption
15%
12%
11%
Corruption
4%
Bad impact on Christians
4%
Q4. How would you evaluate the performance of the actual government, compared to the previous one’s performance? Would you say that the actual government’s performance is 1. Much better, 2. A little bit better,
3. Identical, 4. A little bit worse, 5. Much worse than the previous government’s performance? Q4a. In what is it better? Q4b. In what is it identical? Q4c. In what is it worse?
Perception of Christian Political Parties
Lebanese Forces
Kataeb
Working for the best interest of
Christians
32%
Inefficient
Powerful
24%
Christians
Inefficient
24%
Struggling
Struggling
Following foreign and/or Arab
countries' instructions
Destroying/ threatening Christians
future existence in Lebanon
Followers to the alliance they
belong to
17%
19%
belong to
12%
N = 2000
14%
13%
11%
6%
11%
Inefficient
Marada
28%
Destroying/ threatening Christians
future existence in Lebanon
Followers to the alliance they belong
to
Christians
22%
22%
21%
Powerful
Struggling
26%
Powerful
Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar
32%
20%
14%
13%
Inefficient
30%
Working for the best interest
of Christians
16%
Powerful
16%
belong to
Struggling
Destroying/ threatening
Christians future existence in …
13%
10%
9%
8%
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?
Perception of the Lebanese Forces
By Caza
Zgharta
Bechare
Koura
Batroun
Jbeil
Kesrwan
Metn
Baabda
Aley
Chouf
Beirut one
Zahle
Jezzine
Place of Voting
130
109
99
123
135
206
348
173
73
138
168
203
94
N = 2000
Christians
25% 77% 23% 31% 40% 35% 28% 37% 18% 25% 26% 29% 21%
Powerful
21% 65% 26% 36% 11% 15% 17%
Inefficient
19%
Struggling
10% 14%
8%
10% 31% 23% 19% 17%
5%
19% 14% 23% 15%
24%
5%
6%
4%
27% 20% 16%
9%
1%
5%
14% 11% 12%
Destroying/ threatening the future
existence of Christians in
26%
Lebanon
2%
12%
6%
18% 17% 17% 10%
3%
5%
7%
belong to
1%
6%
5%
17% 12% 17%
3%
9%
10% 12% 10%
18%
6%
9%
10% 27% 32% 40% 21%
12% 20% 49% 34% 30% 25% 22% 16% 22% 16% 30%
6%
8%
11%
Perception of Kataeb
By Caza
Zgharta
Bechare
Koura
Batroun
Jbeil
Kesrwan
Metn
Baabda
Aley
Chouf
Beirut one
Zahle
Jezzine
Place of Voting
130
109
99
123
135
206
348
173
73
138
168
203
94
Inefficient
26%
28%
27%
24%
60%
43%
35%
28%
21%
34%
23%
26%
38%
Working for the best
interest of Christians
23%
33%
16%
20%
32%
29%
28%
30%
18%
20%
24%
31%
23%
Struggling
35%
15%
14%
15%
28%
16%
17%
15%
6%
16%
13%
27%
20%
Powerful
7%
13%
10%
19%
4%
14%
14%
14%
12%
20%
21%
19%
16%
Following foreign and/or
17%
Arab countries' instructions
6%
3%
4%
31%
16%
13%
6%
1%
6%
14%
9%
9%
Followers to the alliance
they belong to
1%
2%
2%
9%
6%
7%
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
6%
18%
N = 2000
Perception of Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar
By Caza
Zgharta
Bechare
Koura
Batroun
Jbeil
Kesrwan
Metn
Baabda
Aley
Chouf
Beirut one
Zahle
Jezzine
Place of Voting
130
109
99
123
135
206
348
173
73
138
168
203
94
Inefficient
25% 20% 14% 23% 51% 26% 27% 19% 24% 26% 29% 40% 34%
Destroying/ threatening the
future existence of Christians
in Lebanon
9%
belong to
19% 57% 26% 22% 29% 20% 22% 10% 10% 11% 15% 27% 15%
Working for the best interest
of Christians
35%
1%
17% 14% 25% 31% 27% 17% 14% 20% 18% 17% 21%
Powerful
38%
5%
19% 21% 15% 19% 23% 16% 18% 17% 21% 17% 22%
14% 18%
6%
7%
1%
8%
15% 18% 13%
Struggling
9%
15% 11% 25% 15% 12% 12%
5%
9%
12% 22% 12%
68% 17% 18% 28% 25% 20% 30%
6%
4%
32% 19% 16%
1%
12% 13% 26% 14%
N = 2000
Perception of Marada
By Caza
Zgharta
Bechare
Koura
Batroun
Jbeil
Kesrwan
Metn
Baabda
Aley
Chouf
Beirut one
Zahle
Jezzine
Place of Voting
130
109
99
123
135
206
348
173
73
138
168
203
94
Inefficient
19% 45% 34% 37% 43% 30% 31% 24% 17% 29% 24% 31% 26%
Christians
45% 11% 21% 12% 19% 18% 11% 12% 14% 16% 16% 16%
9%
Powerful
36% 11% 15% 17% 21% 15% 14% 11%
6%
14% 19%
22%
15% 15%
4%
2%
29% 16% 14%
4%
4%
7%
13% 17% 13%
belong to
20%
8%
5%
4%
10% 13% 14%
5%
-
5%
8%
14%
7%
Struggling
4%
4%
5%
5%
14%
8%
11% 10%
3%
6%
7%
16%
9%
Destroying/ threatening the future
4%
existence of Christians in Lebanon
9%
2%
4%
9%
14% 12% 16%
4%
3%
4%
11%
2%
9%
N = 2000
Perception of Hezbollah
Hezbollah is an Iranian party that works
according to the Iranian agenda
64%
Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Lebanon
56%
Since the withdrawal of Israel in 2000, Hezbollah
is no more needed and should be disarmed
48%
39%
Hezbollah weapons are an important counter
weight to Salafists
Agree
20%
50%
Hezbollah weapons are a current necessity but
should be removed on the long term
Hezbollah weapons issue should not be discussed
as it can lead to a civil war
33%
28%
N = 2000
Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Christians
Hezbollah is a Lebanese party whose main
concern is the Lebanese state
17%
11%
52%
Hezbollah is working towards changing Lebanon
into an Islamic state
Hezbollah weapons are an absolute necessity for
Lebanon’s security
19%
34%
29%
26%
23%
19%
13%
16%
28%
13%
19%
20%
Neither Agree nor Disagree
31%
39%
45%
39%
Agree: Sig. more in Koura
Disagree: Sig. more in Zgharta
58%
54%
58%
Disagree
Q14. I am going to read to you some statements concerning Hezbollah. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Strongly disagree” and 5=
“Strongly agree”, please tell me how much you agree or disagree with each of these statements?
Political Leader who Played a Positive Role in
the History of Lebanon
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn & Baabda
Bachir Gemayel
38%
Significantly more in Baabda & Jezzine
Camil Chamoun
19%
Fouad Chehab
N = 2000
6%
Sleiman Frangieh
4%
Bechara el Khoury
2%
Elias Sarkis
2%
Pierre Gemayel (Sr.)
2%
Q19. In the history of Lebanon, who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader (not necessarily late) who played a positive role in
Lebanon more than others?
Political Leader who is Playing a Positive Role in
Lebanon and How
Sig. more among women
None
How? Samir Geagea
28%
N=469
55%
Sig. more among men 18-24
Samir Geagea
23%
Sig. more among age 50+
Michel Aoun
16%
20%
Patriarch Bechara Raii
Michel sleimen
Preserves the
rights of
Christians
7%
Sleimen Frangieh
3%
Sami Gemayel
3%
Sayed Hassan Nasrallah
16%
8%
Cares about the
interests of the
Lebanese
community
2%
Maintained his
stance
11%
11%
Attempt to
unify
Christians
His speeches
call for
state-building
How? Michel Aoun
N=314
Amin Gemayel
Najib Mikati
2%
27%
27%
1%
Walid Jumblat
1%
Boutros Harb
1%
Cares about
the interests
of the
Lebanese
community
Preserves the
rights of
Christians
9%
9%
7%
6%
6%
Attempt to
unify
Christians
Prevented
major clashes
by joining in
alliance with
Hezbollah
Fought
political
corruption
Made
reconciliations
and
agreements
Does not
want to go
into war
N=2000
Q19a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a positive role in Lebanon more than others?
Q19b. How?
Political Leader who is Playing a Negative Role
in Lebanon and How
How? Michel Aoun
N=540
28%
27%
Michel Aoun
21%
16%
Samir Geagea
14%
13%
11%
12%
All of them
8%
Sayed Hassan
Nasrallah
8%
9%
7%
His alliance Works for He is stirring His alliance
Does not Because of his Instead of
His main
with
personal gain up conflicts with Syria adopt a firm association strengthening concern
Hezbollah
among
stance
with Iran the Christians' is to be
Christians
position, he appointed
weakened it
in office
6%
5%
5%
His work His speeches He is leading
and projects
are
us to
are useless provocative destruction
How? Samir Geagea
N=239
19%
15%
Saad El Hariri
15%
7%
9%
He wants to
cause a civil war
Ahmad El asir
15%
4%
He is stirring His speeches are Works for
up conflicts
provocative
personal gain
among
Christians
Instead of
strengthening
the Christians'
position, he
weakened it
9%
He does
whatever is
requested by
external
countries
6%
6%
5%
He is leading us
to destruction
Works with
Israel
His work and
projects are
useless
N=2000
Q20a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a negative role in Lebanon more than others?
Q20b. How?
March 14 vs. March 8
March 14
34%
March 8
25%
Satisfied
16%
49%
15%
Neither Dissatisfied nor Satisfied
60%
Avg.
1.85
N = 2000
Avg.
1.65
Dissatisfied
Q21. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Totally Dissatisfied” and 5= “Totally Satisfied”, please tell me in general, how much you are
satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of: March 8 alliance? March 14 alliance?
Mistakes of March 14 and March 8 since 2005
March 14
Lack of coordination and conformity
24%
Corruption, stealing and lies
17%
Failed in the government/ Could not
solve the problems/ Negative role…
16%
Unable to propose concrete
solutions to the problems in…
15%
March 8
Failed in the government/ Could not
solve the problems/ Negative role…
Dominant power of Hezbollah/
Relying on Hezbollah’s weapons
9%
Ties with Iran & Syria
Concessions they did, caring for both
parties interests rather than theirs,…
9%
Lack of coordination and conformity
8%
No political clarity/ volatile
relationship with Syria/ multi leaders
8%
Ties with Saudi Arabia
They have no vision for the future
Supporting the Syrian rebellion
Loyalty to western countries
7%
24%
N = 2000
Destruction of the country/ Turning
their weapons inward/ war/…
Electing Nabih Berri as spokesman of
the parliament despite the fact…
Protests, fighting, sit-ins, rallies
32%
22%
19%
15%
Corruption and lies
14%
Don't know
14%
None/ No mistakes
10%
6%
5%
4%
No vision for the future
4%
Failed at communicating its good
messages
4%
Attacking the other party, the Sunnite
leaders/ one-sided government
4%
Q22a. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 8th alliance since 2005? Q22b. What are in your opinion the main
mistakes done by the March 14th alliance since 2005?
Christians’
Expectations
Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the
Next Few Months
First Mentioned
Main Topics
Main Topics
Provide security
89%
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
82%
Provide security
Solve economic issues
46%
77%
Political issues
44%
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
N = 2000
Satisfy the citizens
basic needs for life
21%
40%
Education
12%
Drug problems
11%
17%
Political issues
The situation of the prisons
3%
National reconciliation
3%
Environmental issue
2%
Preserve/restore Christians' rights
1%
Better performance of ministries
1%
None
Fight corruption &
preserve people's rights
9%
4%
2%
7%
Q7a. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next few months?
Main Topics for Christian Politicians to
Tackle as a Priority
Main Topics
81%
Provide security
First Mentioned
Main Topics
78%
Provide security
37%
69%
N = 2000
Political issues
53%
Fight corruption & preserve people's
rights
41%
Education
17%
Drug problems
Political issues
11%
13%
6%
9%
7%
3%
Environmental issue
3%
None
15%
22%
rights
4%
4%
8%
Q11. What are the main topics you would like Christian politicians to tackle as a priority?
Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the
Next 3 Years
Main Topics
First Mentioned
Main Topics
87%
Provide security
82%
Provide security
39%
72%
Political issues
43%
rights
40%
Education
Satisfy the citizens basic needs
for life
28%
17%
15%
Political issues
Drug problems
12%
Environmental issue
4%
4%
2%
2%
Better performance of ministries
1%
None
8%
Fight corruption & preserve
people's rights
5%
1%
Better performance of
ministries
1%
7%
Q7b. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next 3 years?
N = 2000
Political System Best for the Lebanese
Christians
The current system, but with a
stronger state
35%
Democratic system
10% Sig. more in Bcharre, Koura, Batroun & Baabda
Federal state
9%
The current system (as it is)
4%
Secular regime
4%
Division of the country
Sig. more in Zgharta, Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn
2%
Q10. In your opinion, what political system is the best for the Lebanese Christians?
N = 2000
Improving March 8 Performance
All of
them
Tayyar /
M. Aoun
Hezbollah /
S. H. Nasrallah
Gebran
Bassil
Nabih
Berri
Marada /
S. Frangieh
734
616
510
159
77
75
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions
towards their demands/ Better economic situation/ Work
on development
23%
29%
23%
97%
26%
34%
Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians &
Muslims, politicians from different sides
26%
32%
27%
8%
37%
29%
Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war,
destruction, protestations/ Not support extremists/
Strengthen the army
27%
15%
45%
18%
29%
13%
Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries
interests
19%
16%
26%
8%
25%
21%
Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore
their rights
9%
15%
3%
6%
2%
16%
Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the
truth/ Be transparent
10%
8%
7%
7%
10%
8%
Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a
national government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair
electoral law
5%
6%
7%
3%
10%
5%
Leave the government/ Form a new government
5%
6%
6%
3%
10%
3%
Bases
Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the
alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change?
Improving March 14 Performance
All of them
Lebanese Forces /
S. Geagea
Moustakbal /
S. El Hariri
Kataeb /
A.-S. Gemayel
750
574
412
161
Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians & Muslims,
politicians from different sides
31%
42%
39%
41%
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions towards their
demands/ Better economic situation/ Work on development
15%
16%
21%
18%
Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries interests
17%
12%
23%
13%
Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war, destruction,
protestations/ Not support extremists/ Strengthen the army
16%
9%
15%
7%
Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the truth/ Be
transparent
12%
11%
11%
16%
Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore their rights
10%
15%
3%
17%
Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a national
government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair electoral law
6%
6%
6%
9%
Leave the government/ Form a new government
5%
4%
3%
3%
Bases
Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the
alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change?
Overall Wish List for Lebanon
Peace and concordance
69%
Better economy
67%
N = 2000
More security
45%
Better conditions of life
39%
Less corruption & more respect for laws
21%
Unity between its people
20%
New and competent politicians
19%
Q24. Overall, what do you wish for Lebanon?
Christians and
Elections
Electoral Law Best for Lebanese Christians
Don't Know
24%
Each community votes for its
representatives
24%
One circumscription with proportional
representation
16%
One man/ one vote
7%
Majority rules but with small electoral
districts
7%
Same as last elections /2009 (majority rules)
6%
Small constituencies
3%
Proportional representation
3%
The sixties' electoral law
3%
Significantly more among voters of Kesrwan
Significantly more among voters of Zgharta
Significantly more among voters of Metn
and Zahle more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Bechare
Q15. Which electoral law do you think is for the best benefit of the Christians?
N = 2000
Influence to Vote for a Certain Candidate
Qualifications of the candidate
38%
Previous performance of the
candidate
30%
N = 2000
18-20
21-34
35-49
50+
Family influence
Qualifications of the
candidate
37%
41%
31%
40%
40%
37%
Previous performance of
the candidate
29%
32%
30%
31%
29%
31%
Political agenda
24%
23%
25%
27%
23%
21%
Nothing, I simply like the
political party the
candidate belongs to, for
no specific reason
19%
14%
24%
18%
16%
14%
Nothing, I simply like the
candidate for no specific
reason
8%
6%
4%
7%
6%
9%
Family influence
4%
7%
5%
7%
6%
4%
23%
Nothing, I simply like the political
party the candidate belongs to, for
no specific reason
Nothing, I simply like the candidate
for no specific reason
Female
Political agenda
16%
7%
Age
Male
Gender
6%
Q16. In general, what influences you to vote for a certain candidate?
Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013
Went to the polls in 2009 elections
N = 2000
Will go to the polls in 2013 elections
N = 2000
Not sure /
undecided
11%
No
25%
Yes
75%
Yes
67%
Why didn’t you Vote
Why will you Not Vote
N = 498
I was below 21/ not the eligible age
I don't care about elections
N = 498
51%
13%
No
22%
My vote will not change anything
31%
I will still be below 21/ not the
eligible age
21%
There is no one who represents me
There is no one who represents me
16%
13%
I don't care about elections
I was convinced that my vote would
not change anything
I was outside the country
11%
6%
15%
I am disappointed with whom I voted
for before and I will not vote again
I don't believe that with the presence
of armed parties, elections are free
Q17a. Did you go to the polls in the last legislative elections in 2009? Q17c. Why not?
Q18a.Will you go to the polls in the next legislative elections in 2013? Q18c. Why not?
13%
4%
Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013
Who did you vote for in 2009?
Who will you vote for in2013?
N=1502
N=1564
FPM/Tayyar
27%
Lebanese Forces
24%
Someone from M14 coalition
Lebanese Forces
25%
I didn't decide yet
23%
19%
FPM/Tayyar
I don't want to reveal to whom
I voted
20%
14%
Kataeb
Marada
14%
8%
Kataeb
5%
4%
Tashnag party candidates
3%
No one, I voted with a white
ballot
3%
Q17b. Who did you vote for?
Marada
7%
4%
I don't want to reveal to whom
I will vote
4%
4%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?
Voting Patterns in 2009
By Caza
Koura ( N =83)
Bechare (N =84)
Zgharta (N = 101)
48%
43%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted
8%
No one, I voted with a white ballot
2%
Someone independent
Someone my religious authority
supports
89%
47%
Someone independent
11%
47%
3%
11%
1%
1%
Someone independent
3%
1%
1%
1%
Kesrwan( N =163)
Jbeil (N =104)
Batroun (N = 95)
52%
54%
47%
34%
34%
35%
14%
11%
14%
Someone independent
2%
Someone independent
4%
Someone independent
5%
2%
4%
4%
By Caza
Baabda (N =133)
Metn (N = 271)
Aley ( N =49)
50%
46%
41%
35%
14%
14%
2%
5%
Someone with the president
1%
Someone independent
3%
Beirut One (N =117)
Chouf (N = 86)
51%
41%
17%
Zahle ( N =157)
51%
55%
48%
33%
25%
31%
14%
18%
19%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot
4%
4%
5%
Someone independent
1%
Someone independent
2%
Someone independent
2%
Jezzine (N =58)
54%
19%
16%
Someone independent
14%
2%
By Caza
Zgharta (N = 108)
Bechare (N =95)
50%
39%
I didn't decide yet
7%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote
6%
2%
Someone my religious authority
supports
1%
Someone independent
1%
Koura ( N =89)
79%
I didn't decide yet
17%
Someone independent
2%
No one, I will vote with a white
ballot
1%
1%
34%
34%
I didn't decide yet
29%
3%
2%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will
vote
2%
Walid Azar
1%
Jbeil (N=102)
Batroun (N =96)
51%
I didn't decide yet
21%
21%
7%
3%
Someone independent
1%
44%
I didn't decide yet
28%
20%
4%
Georges Corm
3%
2%
2%
Someone independent
1%
By Caza
Kesrwan (N=175)
Metn (N=265)
40%
31%
I didn't decide yet
21%
Someone independent
6%
5%
Ziad Baroud
2%
2%
Nematallah Efram
1%
National Liberal party
1%
Hekmat Efram
1%
Elie Keserwani
1%
Wissam Baroudi
1%
37%
33%
I didn't decide yet
26%
3%
3%
Common electoral lists
1%
Baabda (N=130)
Aley (N=57)
38%
36%
I didn't decide yet
21%
4%
Someone independent
3%
1%
I didn't decide yet
39%
25%
23%
8%
Someone independent
3%
Anis Nasr
2%
Ziad Baroud
2%
2%
By Caza
Beirut one (N=121)
Chouf (N=99)
42%
I didn't decide yet
26%
23%
5%
Someone independent
3%
1%
48%
I didn't decide yet
26%
22%
4%
2%
Someone independent
1%
Ramgavar party
1%
Michel Chidiac
1%
Hunchak party
1%
Zahle (N=159)
Jezzine (N=68)
44%
27%
I didn't decide yet
16%
9%
4%
Someone independent
2%
1%
I didn't decide yet
37%
35%
Someone fromM14 coalition
21%
Someone independent
5%
3%
Media
Consumption
Habits
TV Station Usually Watched
65%
64%
N = 2000
37%
31%
17%
MTV
LBCI
Al Jadeed
OTV
Tele Lumiere
8%
7%
7%
Future
Tele Liban
Manar
Based on Top of Mind of the Christians interviewed in the specific Cazas of the study.
M1. Which local TV station(s) do you watch most often?
Internet Usage
Have Internet Connection at
Home
Personally Use the Internet
N = 2000
No
33%
Where do you use the Internet From
85%
N = 2000
N =1062
52%
No
47%
Yes
67%
Yes
53%
16%
At home
N = 1062
Avg. / week:
21.47
4%
3%
3%
From my In the office From an At school/ at
From
smart phone
internet cafe
the
somewhere
/ Tablet
university
else
Top 10 Political Websites
N = 324
50.2
lebaneseforces.com
Internet Activities – Avg. / Month
39.65
N =1049
36.02
tayyar.org
22.4
14.15
13.64
12.09
annahar.net
Post
comments
about
politics on
Facebook
Read
articles
about
political
news
21%
8.55
alnashra.com
E-mail
34%
22.11
16.11
Instant
Check your
messaging/ Facebook
video
account
conference
40%
Check your Watch or
Post
Read blogs Contribute
Twitter share videos comments
on forums
account
about
politics on
Twitter
14%
mtv.com.lb
12%
lbcgroup.tv
12%
kataeb.org
11%
M2. Do you have an internet connection at home? M3. Do you personally use the internet? If YES, where? M4. In general how often do you use the internet? M5. Specifically, how often do
you use the internet for each of the following activities? M6. What websites do you visit most frequently for political news? Please name maximum 10 websites
4
Conclusions
Christians Fears & Concerns

Christians mainly identify themselves as Lebanese and Christians
significantly more among the females.
They don’t see themselves as Arabs. Voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan and Metn
consider themselves “world citizens” more than other Cazas. And voters of
Jbeil, Kesrwan and Baabda identify themselves as “Pheneocian descendents”
more than other Cazas.

Despite how they identify themselves, the majority feel proud of being
Lebanese.

The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security
Situation and the Economic Situation.
Specifically the security situation is more significant among females and the
voters of Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn, and Jezzine.

To them the main dangers on their future is the “weak state” and the “corrupt
and inefficient politicians”. These factors reflect negatively on the
economic situation.

Besides the Lebanese Christians also consider the illegal weapons a great
danger on their future.

Specifically, those who mentioned that Hezbollah weapons is a dangerous
factor on their future, considered it as the 1st danger.
Christians Fears & Concerns

The Lebanese Christians are mainly interested in issues related to the
situation and presence of the Christians for example: (their future, land
selling, size of their power, leadership).

Also they are interested in living in peace with everyone around them.
they refuse any kind of war and consider the illegal weapons with the
different parties (Palestinians, Hezbollah, Salafists…) as a danger on their
future.

They want good relationships with everyone but also have a strong
leader that can defend the Christians.

To 39%, Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites.

One third of the Lebanese Christians are still optimistic about their
presence in Lebanon and don’t consider themselves threatened because
they believe that they emerged from this region and are the core
founders of Lebanon.

However the other two thirds who are afraid is because they consider that
the Islamic presence in Lebanon currently has an advantage over the
Christians in terms of increased population, powerful roles, and unified
leaders. They see that the Immigration of the Christians , the absence
of a strong leader , and the continuous disputes between the political
parties are threatening of situation of the Christians.

40% of the Lebanese Christians believe that the government performance
didn’t change from before in terms of the security and economic situations.

Also to 42% these two issues has worsened.

However, 18% see that the performance of this government was better in
some ministries that worked for the interest of citizens.

The Lebanese Christians love Freedom, Independence, Democracy, and
Resistance.

While they fear Sectarianism , Integrism, Integralism, Wilayat el Fakih,
and Muslim Brotherhood.

To the majority Lebanese Forces is still the strongest political party and
the one working for the benefits of the Christians.

On the other hand, to the majority Hezbollah works with an Iranian agenda
and its weapons are dangerous to Lebanon and the Christians in specific.
Moreover it is working towards changing Lebanon into an Islamic state.

Despite the fact that Christians refuse any type of war and they want to live
in peace with everyone, they disagree that Hezbollah weapons issue should
not be discussed as it can lead to a civil war.

After 30 years of his assassination, Bachir Gemayel is still considered the
political leader who played a positive role in the history of Lebanon
significantly among the young Christians.

Camil Chamoun comes next however he is significantly named among the
older Christians.

In general, Christians assess a political leader to be playing a positive role if
he / she:
o Works to preserve the role of the Christians
o Unifies them (significant among females)
o Cares about the interests of the Lebanese Community

For those who consider Samir Geagea to be the leader playing a positive
role, they do so because they see that he works towards preserving the
rights of the Christians.

The Majority of the Lebanese Christians are more satisfied with the
performance of March 14 more than that of March 8.

In addition, the mistakes of March 14 after 2005 are related to the
performance of the alliance (e.g. coordination, failing in the government,
unable to propose concrete solutions), whereas the mistakes of March 8
are more crucial to the stability of the country like relying on the Hezbollah
weapons, May 7th events, and the failing of the government.
Christians’ Expectations

The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security
Situation and the Economic Situation.

These two concerns are also the main topics that they want the
politicians in general and the Christian politicians in specific to tackle in
as a priority, in the short run and the long run.

As a fact, these two issues are highly related to each other. If the
security situation is not stable the economy cannot flourish. Any
security issue can cause great set-backs in the economy.

The Lebanese Christians don’t want a different kind of political system
from the current one but they want a stronger state.
Thank you for your trust
and confidence in IPSOS

Christians - Lebanese Forces Official Website

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