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Saudi Arabia Game of Thrones Season II
Power players after King Salman’s rise to the throne
Saudi Arabia, the linchpin of regional stability and the country that 1.7 billion Muslims turn towards 5 times daily. Upon succession to the throne
King Salman’s message was an orderly transfer of power: stable, predictable and business as usual. Yet 2015 has seen rapid re-shufflings of
power, a Saudi-led intervention in Yemen and resistance to calls to cut oil output during plummeting crude prices. Coupled with an underemployed youthful population and security threats – these are hyper-turbulent times both at home and abroad.
Al-Sheikh family. 2nd only to
royal family in power. Has
religious authority and supports
the Saud family’s secular
authority. The Grand Mufti and
the speaker of the Shura are AlSheikh family members.
Specialist in SaudiIran relations.
A former journalist.
First non-royal to be
appointed as Minister
of Culture and
Information.
Saudi Ambassador to Washington replacs
long-serving Foreign Minister, Saud alFaisal. A non-Royal, so may not have the
same degree of influence as Al-Faisal. As
Foreign Minister he may have a role as a
Member of the powerful Council of Political
and Security Affairs. Supported Yemen
intervention.
Power distribution: lineage, leadership. Ministerial roles shifting away from royal appointments. Focus on defence.
2nd generation
Faisal bin Abdulaziz
(murdered 1975)
Khaled bin Abdulaziz
(died 1982)
Khaled Al-Faisal
bin Abdulaziz
Miteb bin
Abduallah bin
Abdulaziz
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz
(died 2015)
Mishaal bin Abdullah
bin Abdulaziz
Ahmed bin Abdulaziz
Salman bin Abdulaziz
(crowned King 2015)
Bandar bin Sultan
bin Abdulaziz
Salman bin Sultan
bin Abdulaziz
Khaled bin Sultan bin
Abdulaziz
Sultan bin Salman bin
Abdulaziz
Mishaal bin Abdulaziz
Mohammed bin
Salman bin Abdulaziz
Dep. Crown Prince,
April 2015
Faisal bin Salman bin
Abdulaziz
Nayef bin Abdulaziz
(died 2012)
A shift to 2nd gen. leadership
Only non-Royal serving on
both the Saudi Council of
Political and Security Affairs
and the Council of Economic
and Development Affairs.
Reputed to be one of Saudi’s
most efficient behind-thescenes players. Entrusted with
numerous missions over the
years.
Survived two power-reshuffles in
2015 to retain vital role as head of
the
Saudi Arabian National Guard
There are 33-35 critical ministries and other senior
appointments. 11 are held by members of the royal
family, and 8 by senior princes. 23 are technocrats
who will play a critical role in preserving the
continuity of power.
May 2015 – King Salman removed royal family
members from key Ministerial roles, e.g. Khalid AlFalih (CEO of Saudi Aramco) appointed as Minister
of Health, and Adel al-Jubeir appionted as Minister
of Foreign Affairs (following removal of Prince Saud
Al-Faisal who had been Minister since 1975).
King Salman & sons have
continued to assert control over
the sons of Sultan, whose influence
has waned during the illness and
subsequent death of their father
Mohammed bin
Nayef bin Abdulaziz
Crown Prince,
April 2015
Saud bin Nayef
bin Abdulaziz
Government
30/1/15 12 public bodies abolished to
Streamline decision-making. Two very important
new umbrella bodies created: the Council of
Political and Security Affairs (9 member group
headed by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman) and the Council of Economic and
Development Affairs (22 member group headed by
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef).
Control over the kingdom’s 3
security portfolios continues to
be key – Mohammed bin
Salman appointed as Minister
of Defence and heavily
involved in the Saudi led
intervention in Yemen
Egypt
Commerce
Defence
Oman
Ethiopia
The issue horizon
Somalia
Son of
King
Abdullah.
Removed
from role
as Gov. of
Mecca
January
2015.
Reportedly
distrusts
King
Salman.
Defence - Mmhd bin Salman has control over the
MoD while SANG remains under Mitib bin
Abdullah.
30/1/15: Bandar bin Sultan removed as Sec Gen
N’tl Sec Council and Council abolished. New
security body is the Council of Political and
Security Affairs led by the Deputy Crown Prince.
Khalid bin Bandar relieved as Chief of General
Intelligence Presidency replaced by General
Khalid bin Ali bin Abdullah Al-Humaidan.
Reshuffle appears aimed to unify decision
making on security matters under one body.
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Nayef remains as
Minister of the Interior. Counsidered to be Saudi’s
“counter-terrorism czar”
Gov. of Eastern Province,
heartland of Saudi’s oil
fields
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
UAE
Yemen
Majority stake in
Kingdom Holding
Co. Vocal critic of
Gov’t policy
1st of the 2nd gen. to reach Crown
Prince. Signals power shift to the 2nd
generation and may also signal longer
term consolidation of Sudairi power
Ministry of Interior
Saudi
Arabia
Eritrea
Removed as Pres. Of
Intel Agency in 2014
Chairman of the
Allegiance Council
Iran
Sudan
Former Amb. to U.K. & U.S.
Former DG Intell. Dir.
Royal Family
Defence Ministry
Syria
Iraq
Shura Council is the
Legislative body that
advises the King & Exec
Cabinet. 150 members (30
women). Expanding
mandate to propose/amend
existing laws without King’s
consultation.
Powerful family
member yet not
considered an ally of
King Salman.
Foreign Affairs
Minister since 1975.
Removed from post
in April 2015.
Stays on a special
envoy to the King
and supervisor of
Foreign Affairs
Central Power
Retained portfolio
in 2015.
Significant change in oil
production policy unlikely given
strong consultation with King’s
immediate circle. Potential
successors were either Prince
Abdulaziz or Aramco CEO Khalid
Al-Falih.
But Khalid has recently been
named Health Minister and its
unclear what his on going role at
Saudi Aramco will be.
Rapid ascension to power.
Considered to have great
influence over King Salman
(father)
Abroad, the territory looks increasingly uncharted and volatile. The historic
Sunni and Shia fault line has reopened, virulent new strains of Sunni jihadism
have emerged, Saudi-Iranian proxy struggles spread and half a dozen
conflicts rage. Saudi, under its new Minister of Defence, has led an
intervention against Houthi insurgents in Yemen. Set this against a
recalibration of the U.S.- Saudi security for oil pact, and the fight for oil
supremacy vs. shale-oil upstarts. Old status quos can no longer be counted
upon.
Reigned 21 years
Former Crown Prince
Muqrin ‘requested’ to be
relieved of his duties, April
2015
11 years
11 years
KING SAUD
’53
7 years
KING FAISAL
‘64
Reappointed as
Governor to Mecca
Province in 2015,
Advisor to King
Salman
A non-Suadairi, but has
survived two power
reshuffles to maintiain
position as Head of the
National Guard
Newly appointed
Crown Prince. 1st
member from
grandson gen. in
succession line
KING ABDUL AZIZ IBN SAUD
’32
Former Gov.
of East Prov.
Allegedly
replaced
(‘13) for
failing to
contain
sectarian
unrest
Appears
to have
been
sidelined
from
power.
Remove
d as
Gov. of
Riyadh in
2015.
Convened when Nayef
succeeded Sultan as Crown
Prince (‘11) but not when
naming King Salman to
succeed Nayef in ‘12. Prince
Talal resigned in protest.
On the home front, princely intrigue and tussles over who rises to power
following the crowing of a Sudairi King. With the appoinment of Mohammed
bin Nayef as Crown Prince a generational shift in power from the Saudi
gerontocracy has been made. Will there be competition or mutual support
between bin Nayef and the 30 year old newly appointed Deputy Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman? Outside the palace gates, the House of Saud
faces quasi-existential fault lines which it must either confront, curb or
accomodate. A restless unemployed ‘Youth Bulge’, increasingly armed with
the ‘idea’ of the Arab Spring, social media and few avenues for dissent are
faced off against devout Wahhabism that sustains jihadist ideology, stokes
sectarianism and exposes the monarchy to charges of hypocrisy. With oil
supporting 80% of the budget, cheque book diplomacy may buy social
acquiescence for a time but at a high cost to the economy.
Israel
Jordan
A well respected diplomat with significant
experience in Saudi-U.S. relations.
Pro
Al-Waleed bin Talal
bin Abdulaziz
Khalid bin Talal bin
Abdulaziz
+37~
Several top (comparative liberal)
officials removed from Justice
Ministry and Religious Police
(30/1/15)
Religion
Turki bin Abdullah
bin Abdulaziz
Muqrin bin Abdulaziz
(removed as
Crown Prince, April 2015)
Talal bin Abdulaziz
Strongest kin-based faction of 7 full brothers within the House of Saud, all children of
Hassa bint Ahmed Al Sudairi and King Abdulaziz. Following the death of non-Sudairi
King Abdullah, King Salman was quick to consolidate power back to this group;
removing Muqrin bin Abdulaziz as Crown Prince in favour of (Sudairi) Mohammed bin
Nayef, and appointing his own son, Mohammed bin Salman (30 years old), as
Deputy Crown Prince. Mohammed bin Salman also appointed as Minister of
Defence and Chair of the influential Council for Economic Development
Mohammad bin
Fahd bin Abdulaziz
Fahd bin Abdulaziz
(died 2005)
Sultan bin Abdulaziz
(died 2011)
Abdulaziz
ibn Saud
(died
1953)
Turki Al-Faisal bin
Abdulaziz
2nd generation
23 years
K. KHALED
‘75
10 years
KING FAHD
‘82
KING SALMAN
KING ABDULLAH
‘05
‘15
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June 10, 2015 | Sources: open source data mining
Saud bin Abdulaziz
(ousted 1964)
Sudairi 7
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Saud Al-Faisal bin
Abdulaziz
The Stakeholder Company 2015
1st generation