Employment Trends Survey - Indian Staffing Federation

Transcription

Ma Foi Randstad
Employment Trends Survey
Wave 1 - 2011
in this report...
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Indian Economy – on balanced growth path
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Data and Methodology
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Expected Employment Generation
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Banking, Financial Services and Insurance
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Education, Training and Consultancy
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Energy
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Healthcare
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Hospitality
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Information Technology & Information Technology Enabled Services
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Manufacturing - Machinery and Equipment
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Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products
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Media and Entertainment
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Pharma
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Real Estate and Construction
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Trade including Consumer, Retail and Services
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Transport, Storage and Communication
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Summary and Conclusion
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Appendix
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A1 - Increase in wage bills across Sectors
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A2 - City wise total Employment
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A3 - City wise increase in Employment
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A4 - Expected Increase in wage bills across cities
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A5 - Estimated Proportion of Fresher/Experienced across Sectors (December 2010)
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A6 - Estimated proportion of Fresher and Experienced employees across Cities (December 2010)
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A7 – Estimated proportion of Fresher/Experienced across Sectors and Ownership (December 2010)
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A8 – Estimated Percentage of Work Outsourced Across Sectors (December 2010)
The Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey (MEtS), conducted by Ma Foi Randstad, India’s No. 1 Integrated HR services company, is a
study on the Indian employment trends and opportunities. Started in November 2004, MEtS was conducted once a year, till 2008.
Considering the several dynamic shifts in employment, even within a year’s time, MEtS was therefore converted to a quarterly survey from
2010, to capture the changes in employment scenario in India from one quarter to another. The prime objective of this employment survey is
to understand the employment trends in the organized sector on a quarterly basis. The present survey has captured the employment situation
in the organized sector for the quarter of October 2010 to December 2010 and the likely scenario from January to June 2011. The study is
based on the sample survey conducted for about 650 companies across different sectors of the economy. The feedback was gathered from
the top HR personnel or from top management of the companies who could share the current and the likely scenario regarding employment
related issues. The major parameter captured in the survey is the change in hiring pattern and employee strength.
The report is divided into four sections. The first section (Section A) provides the background as well as an overview of the Indian Economy.
Section B discusses the data and methodological aspects of the study. Section C provides a picture of the changing pattern of the
employment for different sectors of the economy. This section also provides a snapshot of how the scenario is changing in select cities. The
final section (Section D) highlights key issues.
Dear Friend,
Greetings from Ma Foi Randstad!
The year 2010 saw major economies registering modest
growth and India on a balanced growth path. India story
gained primacy at the beginning of 2010, with the changing
market scenarios across the world. The growing significance of
the emerging markets like India and China, has led to many
global corporations including these countries, in their growth
and workforce strategies.
Ma Foi Randstad Employment Survey [MEtS] is an initiative to
assist the senior leaders in their workforce strategies.
At the beginning of 2010, MEtS predicted creation of 1 million
jobs in the organized sector through the year. Our year-end
METS shows creation of 1.13 million jobs across 13 industry
verticals. Healthcare, Hospitality, Real Estate, Construction, IT
and ITeS sectors played a major role in 2010 in fuelling the
growth and job creation.
For 2011, we expect the trend to continue. We estimate
creation of 1.6 million jobs across various sectors. We see a
large number of these jobs happening in the Healthcare, Nonmachinery Manufacturing, Hospitality, IT & ITeS and Real
Estate & Construction sectors.
While there is positivity in the air, we as the market leader in
the HR services industry, see the “Employability Gap” as a
challenge. I do hope that steps taken by the government and
the industry will address this issue quickly and effectively.
It is my pleasure to share with you the results of the Ma Foi
Randstad Employment Trends Survey – 1st edition of 2011.
I hope that you will find the report useful.
Look forward to your valuable feedback and inputs.
Warm Regards
E. Balaji
MD & CEO
Indian Economy
on a balanced growth path
The January 2011 update of The World Economic Outlook
by International Monitory Fund (IMF) has mentioned about
improved modest growth registered by the advanced
economies, which is also marked by high unemployment,
sovereign debt risks and the relative higher level of
economic growth with some signs of optimism. For India,
2010-11 has been a year of balanced growth. The official
overall real GDP growth rate for the first half of the year
was 8.9 per cent.
The inflation rate continues to be high; a cause for concern
for the economy. However, the year on year change in the
Wholesale Price Index was 8.4 per cent for the month of
December 2010, a single digit inflation rate for the fifth
consecutive month, after five months of double digit
inflation. The Consumer Price Index for industrial workers
had also dropped to single digit, which was a positive trend
for the economic outlook and was much below the
expected level.
Spatial distribution of rainfall at sub-division and district
levels was significantly better in 2010-11 as compared to
the previous year. A favourable overall condition and price
environment have raised the expectation of higher
production, as well as productivity for various crops in
different parts of the country. A comfortable situation has
led to small increase in the Wholesale Price Index for
cereals, pulses, edible oils and sugar as compared to double
digit growth in Wholesale Price Index for the same period
in the previous year.
The Index of Industrial production (IIP) has also registered
significant higher growth during the last quarter of 2010.
Manufacturing has improved considerably during April to
December of 2010, compared to the previous quarters,
while growth in energy sector was lower compared to the
previous year. However, it is expected that a high base is
likely to keep the IIP growth low. Also, a somewhat volatile
pattern of IIP growth exhibited in recent months is a cause
for concern. A high level of reported capacity utilization
hints towards uneven patterns in demand from large
infrastructure or development projects rather than usual
stable economic activities as the reason for fluctuations in
IIP growth.
The service sector indicators reflect continuation of growth
momentum. Though the external demand remained
relatively weak, indicators related to transportation and
financial sectors look reasonable. The external trade has
gone up to US$ 27.9 billion in first half of the 2010-11
compared to US$ 55.9 billion during the corresponding
period of 2009-10. However, the cause for concern is the
decline in gross as well as net FDI inflows. The Central
Government’s fiscal position has improved during April to
December 2010 due to unexpected bonanza from 3G
telecom spectrum sale and better collection of tax and
non-tax revenues.
Data Sources
The study has used both primary and secondary data to arrive at different estimates. Secondary data from various
sources have been used for this study. Historical data on the manufacturing sector has been culled out from various
rounds of the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) and publications of the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Apart
from these sources, the others used for the study are various surveys of the National Sample Survey Organization
(NSSO), Labour Statistics of India and Statistical outline of India.
The above sources have the advantage of almost universal coverage of the organized sector within their specific
domains. However, data from most of these secondary sources are not up-to-date. Therefore the estimation
procedure, to take care of this problem, is by using up-to-date figures on sectoral Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
and Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Once estimates of base sectoral employment was obtained, the data captured through primary survey of about 650
firms across sectors were used to arrive at estimates on different parameters. Rigorous estimation procedures were
used along with the primary survey data of the companies to estimate parameters for the fourth quarter of the year
2010 and expectations regarding the first two quarters of 2011.
Coverage of Primary Survey
Sl. No.
Sector
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)
Pharma
Healthcare
Trade including Consumer Retail Services
Energy
Hospitality
Manufacturing of Non-Machinery Products
Manufacturing of Machineries and Equipment
No. of companies covered
50
46
38
42
43
42
44
59
54
39
84
72
40
estimates of
employment
generation in
different sectors
The outlook is more or less stable across sectors over the
months. The optimism of early 2010 was further
strengthened due to a positive economic outlook, but the
recent political developments marked with scandals have
made an impact on the overall business confidence, albeit
marginal. Employment generation has remained stable and
upbeat in most of the sectors. However, continuous
inflation, price of raw materials and intermediate industrial
products, scams involving ministers and so on have created
some caution in the minds of entrepreneurs. The
movement of skilled workforce within the sector continued
during the 4th Quarter of 2010. The change in
employment across sectors is given in the table below.
The employment scenario during any specific time period
needs to be viewed from the perspective of various
activities and at several fronts, for a considerable period.
This section has presented the estimated employment
numbers with expectations for different sectors of the
Indian economy. It also lists some of the issues that might
have an impact on the employment scenario, either directly
or indirectly. This will help correlate between the trends
observed regarding employment and economic as well as
political fundamentals.
Expected Employment Increase in Different Sectors
Sectors
Banking, Financial Services & Insurance
Energy
Healthcare
Employment
Total increase in employees
Entire
2011
Per cent increase
Entire
2011
September
2010
Oct - Dec
2010
Jan - June
2011
887,200
20,760
35,500
80,700
2.34%
4.00%
8.9%
9,769,600
24,400
51,800
107,500
0.25%
0.53%
1.1%
889,100
6,400
13,300
24,900
0.72%
1.50%
2.8%
3,313,052
64,600
125,900
248,500
1.95%
3.73%
7.4%
Oct - Dec
2010
Jan - June
2011
IT & ITeS
1,866,600
52,265
100,800
183,000
2.80%
5.25%
9.5%
1,121,000
13,800
32,500
68,400
1.23%
2.90%
6.0%
Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products
4,468,200
39,800
93,800
223,400
0.89%
2.10%
5.0%
1,327,100
29,200
63,600
126,100
2.20%
4.69%
9.3%
Pharma
269,800
14,551
26,700
49,400
5.39%
9.39%
17.4%
808,412
50,900
85,700
144,700
6.30%
9.97%
16.8%
643,900
8,900
20,000
38,600
1.38%
3.10%
5.9%
2,664,700
17,900
33,800
93,300
0.67%
1.26%
3.5%
Estimated Increase in Employment
8.9%
80700
4.0%
35500
20760
October - December 2010
Banking, Financial Services
and Insurance
January - June 2011
January 2011 - December 2011
The BFSI sector is expected to add 116,240
jobs in 2011.
?
The stable and positive sentiment at the economic front continues
to help the BFSI sector to grow further during the 4th Quarter of
2010. Responses from the BFSI companies indicate that almost
similar condition will prevail during the first two quarters of 2011
as well as for the entire year. The sector is cautiously optimistic
about growth of employment numbers.
?
The raise of Repo and Reverse Repo rates by RBI on 25th January
2011 has caused an increase of Repo rate by 175 basis points and
Reverse Repo rate by 225 basis points, since March 2010. CRR has
increased by 100 basis points during the same time.
?
Inflation has remained a cause for concern over the past months
and is expected to continue for a few more months to come.
However, the response to structural causes of inflation needs to be
through reallocation of resources across sectors. Short term
measures like interest rate hikes, though manage to contain
inflation to a moderate level are not strong enough to sustain
growth. .
?
The recent RBI report on the Micro Finance sector has
recommended several checks to resolve the issues and improve
transparency. However, observations have also been made
regarding the “Recovery Culture” in the financial sector and its
adverse effects on the customers. This is an important observation
made by RBI, in view of the recent measures taken by the Andhra
Pradesh Government to regulate the recovery of loans from the
small borrowers by the MFIs. However, the drive towards financial
inclusion will certainly play a positive role in employment
generation in this sector.
?
Bank credit to commercial sector is increasing steadily, which is
one of the major driving forces for the banking sector in the
country.
?
Insurance sector, both life and general, has witnessed a positive
sentiment in the 4th Quarter as compared to the previous ones
and is expected to do better in coming months.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
907,960
943,400
988,660
1.1%
107500
0.5%
51800
24400
Education, Training
and Consulting
January - June 2011
The Education, Training and Consulting sector
is expected to add 107,500 jobs in 2011.
?
Education sector continued to contribute significantly to the
employment base of the country during the last Quarter of 2010.
?
The sector is expected to grow at similar rate during the first
couple of Quarters of 2011. However, the expectation regarding
growth for the entire calendar year of 2011 is slightly lower
compared to the first two Quarters of the year.
?
The regulatory ambiguity still remains the biggest impediment that
holds back the sector’s transformation into one of country’s
largest industry segments.
?
A study by KPMG projects an investment potential of US$ 100
billion in Education sector over the next five to six years. Going
forward, Venture Capitalists and Private Equity players will have a
role to play in the expansion of this sector.
?
A distinct shift can be observed in the approach of the students
and their parents.. The tendency to opt for job oriented education,
rather than the general educational streams, has given immense
opportunity to the private players.
?
Private players are currently targeting the student base at Tier II
and Tier III cities, in addition to the main metros. This move has
proved to be effective, since the government education
infrastructure is poor in many of these cities.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
9,794,000
9,845,800
9,901,500
2.8%
24900
1.5%
13300
6400
Energy
January - June 2011
The Energy sector is expected to add 24,900
jobs in 2011.
?
The Energy sector has remained weak during 4th quarter of 2010
though marginal improvement was noticed as compared to the
previous quarter in terms of employment generation.
?
The expectations, as reported by the companies for the next two
Quarters, as well as for the entire 2011, show us stable growth in
employment in spite of many encouraging policy announcements.
?
The IIP for Electricity and Coal has posted significantly lower growth
rates from April to December 2010, compared to the same period
of 2009-10. Amongst the energy sub-sectors, only crude oil has
registered an impressive growth of more than 11 per cent during
April to December 2010 as compared to -1.4 per cent during the
same period of 2009-10. Petro products have also posted a positive
growth of 0.8 per cent against minus 1.2 per cent of the previous
year.
?
A 61% hike proposed by the Union Budget 2011-12 for the
Renewable Energy sector should work as a booster for the Green
Energy companies. This is mainly due to the increased thrust being
given to Solar Energy utilization under the Solar Mission. The
proposal from the Government to spend Rs. 5 billion to set up Solar,
Small Hydro and Micro Power projects in the Ladakh region of
Jammu and Kashmir may also work as a boosting factor if
implemented.
?
The Central Ministry of Power has set an ambitious plan of “power
for all by 2012”. The plan requires that the installed power
generation capacity to be increased form current 147,402 MW to
200,000 MW by 2012. This should provide some impetus to the
sector, to grow at a higher level and generate new employment
opportunities.
?
Funding for renewable energy projects is expected to become easier
in India as banks and private equity investors begin to look at clean
energy projects as viable business propositions to invest in.
?
With inherent advantages such as engineering talent and low-cost
manufacturing, India has the potential to be a leader in the cleantechnology industry. Areas of opportunity include Clean Coal
Technology and Solar Technology. The efficient building of
technologies needs power designers, energy auditors, energy
engineers and green building architects. Once the sector’s growth
path looks up, employment potentially increases.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
895,500
908,800
920, 400
7.4%
248500
3.7%
125900
64600
Healthcare
January - June 2011
The Healthcare sector is expected to add
248,500 jobs in 2011.
?
Healthcare sector remains as one of the leading employment
providing sectors in the country contributing to more than 16% of
total estimated employment. The sector is poised to contribute
greatly to employment in next couple of quarters too.
?
The healthcare industry is growing at an unprecedented rate.
Indians are, of late,prone to lifestyle related diseases and are vying
for better amenities. The healthcare industry in India is anticipated
to reach US$ 75 billion by 2012, with a significant growth during
the next one year. This sector, thus, will continue as the major
employment generating sector in India.
?
Penetration of health insurance has also been providing the
organized healthcare sector the required boost.
?
Setting up new healthcare facilities in tier II and III cities in India
are opening up new avenues for employment generation in this
the sector.
?
There is no inhibiting factor regarding foreign investment in
healthcare industry unlike many other industries. The absence of
regulatory laws is also playing a positive role in the spreading of
the healthcare facilities across the states. Recognizing the need for
technological advances in this sector, Government has granted
many relaxations too. All these factors are boosting the growth of
the sector and in turn generating employment.
?
The increasing popularity of Medical tourism along with alternative
therapies such as Homoeopathy, Ayurveda and the similar kinds
are also providing new opportunities for job creation.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
3,377,652
3,503,552
3,626,152
3.6%
218200
1.9%
115200
49100
Hospitality
January - June 2011
The Hospitality sector is expected to add
218,200 jobs in 2011.
?
Hospitality sector has again shown high and stable growth during
last Quarter of 2010.
?
The expectations as reported by the hospitality companies reaffirm
the optimism felt amongst the industry players. The employment
growth by the sector is expected to be further strengthened
during coming months.
?
A large number of approvals for new hotels and a large scale
investment in hotel infrastructure in the major cities as well as tier
II and tier III cities have led to creation of significant number of
jobs at all levels.
?
Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in India during October to December
2010 was at 7.9 per cent, which was marginally lower compared
to the previous Quarter. But the sector players are optimistic about
the future.
?
Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from tourism had also increased
significantly during 4th Quarter of 2010 compared to the same
period in the previous year.
?
Increased demand for tourism activities, both in domestic and
international markets has resulted in big travel agencies and tour
operators recruiting on a large scale.
?
Substantial numbers of hospitality companies are trying to include
various tourism products within their service portfolio. This has
also accentuated hiring by these companies at all levels.
?
According to the players in the Hospitality sector, Meetings,
Incentives, Conferencing and Exhibitions (MICE) have become
major revenue generating activities for the sector. This has also
increased the need for hiring skilled manpower in this sector.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
6,111,300
6,226,500
6,329,500
9.5%
183000
5.3%
100800
52265
Information Technology
and
Information Technology
Enabled Services
The IT & ITES sector is expected to add
183,000 jobs in 2011.
?
IT & ITES sectors have remained as one of the major job providers
during the 4th Quarter of 2010. The responses from the surveyed
companies suggest that the sector will keep growing in 2011 as
well.
?
According to NASSCOM, the IT-ITeS industry is India’s one of the
largest employment generators in the organized sector creating
jobs for over 10 million people both directly and indirectly.
?
The spread of the IT-ITeS sector to the tier II and tier III cities has
further widened the growth potential of the sector thereby
generating more employment.
?
Increase in number of Rural BPOs has also contributed to the
sector’s role in increasing employment across the country.
?
However, the process of geographical dispersion of the industry is
being adversely affected by the non-extension of the STPI scheme
and attendant tax incentives. A proactive role on part of the
government will lead to increased job creation in the sector.
?
Companies in this sector are consciously moving up the value
chain in the journey of outsourcing, to stay competitive in the
global arena. This has impacted the employment trends in this
sector
?
Increase in lateral job shifts among employees within the sector
has resulted in substantial increase in the salary levels, for the new
hires, as well as for existing employees.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
January - June 2011
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
1,918,865
2,019,665
2,101,865
6.0%
68400
2.9%
32800
13800
Manufacturing Machineries and
Equipment
The Manufacturing - Machinery and
Equipment sector is expected to add 68,400
jobs in 2011.
?
This sector also has experienced significant growth in terms of
employment in the last Quarter of 2010 and also poised for
further growth in 2011.
?
All its sub-sectors have grown significantly during 2010-11 as
compared to previous year.
?
Machinery & Equipment (other than Transport Equipment) has
grown by more than 27 per cent during the first three Quarters of
2010-11, as against 15 per cent during same period of the
previous year.
?
Transport Equipment has grown by more than 35 per cent in
2010-11 as against 17 per cent during the same period of 200910.
?
However, higher inflation remains a cause for concern for a
sustained long term success.
?
Viability gap funding for the infrastructure projects by the
government can play a positive role for further growth of both this
sector as well as Non-Machinery Manufacturing sector.
?
Continuous demand for the products in the non-machinery
manufacturing sector, in 2010 has provided a boost for this sector.
However, a lower growth rate of IIP in the sector in 2011 may
result in negative impact on the employment.
?
Higher cost of fund, if continued, may also pose a threat for the
growth of this sector.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
January - June 2011
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
1,134,800
1,167,300
1,203,200
5.0%
223400
2.0%
93800
39800
Manufacturing Non-machinery Products
January - June 2011
The Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products
sector is expected to add 223,400 jobs in
2011.
?
The positive growth momentum that was witnessed during the
third Quarter continued during the fourth Quarter as well. This is
expected to continue in 2011 as reported by the companies
surveyed.
?
One of the main reasons for the early recovery of the sector in
India, compared to other emerging economies and developed
countries, is the market’s domestic demand rather than exports.
Sound macro-economic fundamentals and stimulus also played its
role in shaping the industry’s quick recovery.
?
The output of Basic Goods remained at the same level between
April and December 2010 compared to the previous year, while
intermediate goods showed a marginal decline.
?
Consumer Goods sector has again posted a high level of growth
of more than 21 per cent during April and December 2010
quarter.
?
The labour intensive industries such as Food products, Textile
products, Leather and related products, Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum
& Coal products etc. have shown significant growth during 4th
Quarter as well as during the entire year of 2010.
?
Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Metal Products & Parts (except
machineries and equipment) have also posted significantly high
growth compared to previous year.
?
All these factors together have added significant employment
numbers to the country’s employment base.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
4,508,000
4,601,800
4,731,400
9.3%
126100
4.7%
63600
29200
January - June 2011
The Media and Entertainment sector is
expected to add 126,100 jobs in 2011.
?
Strong growth path envisaged for the sector, is expected to
continue in 2011.
?
The employment growth in this sector was higher in the fourth
Quarter as compared to the previous three quarters. The responses
from the companies also indicate that it will further increase
during 2011.
?
Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI)
is of the opinion that the Media and Entertainment industry will
grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13 per cent
by 2014.
?
All positive factors such as regulations that allow foreign
investment, the impetus from the optimistic economy, the digital
lifestyle of huge urban population of the country along with
higher disposable income and spending habits coupled with
opportunities thrown open by the advancements, are providing a
big lift to the industry.
?
With the foray of 3G on the Indian shores, mobile TV and gaming
offer a great deal of promise to this industry’s growth
?
Cinema opened routes for foreign investment and the grant of an
industry status has created a significant and positive impact for
employment generation. Entry of several foreign production
houses in recent months are also a big push to the industry’s
development.
?
Advertising revenues through television are expected to gross US$
3.12 billion by 2013. In addition, digital advertising through
Internet and mobile phones is also gaining momentum. Online
advertising is projected to reach US$ 212 million in2011. All these
developments are paving way for new job generation in the
sector.
?
The animation industry is poised to expand greatly. Companies,
such as Intel, Disney, Paramount, and Cartoon Network, are
looking to tap into this industry. This is due to the growth of
gaming and the real-time 3D sector. Employment base of this
sector is likely to increase significantly in view of these activities.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
1,356,300
1,419,900
1,482,400
17.4%
40400
9.4%
26700
14551
Pharma
January - June 2011
The Pharma sector is expected to add 49,400
jobs in 2011.
Indian Pharma sector has been growing significantly and has
?
maintained the growth during the last quarter of 2010. The
expectations also show a large increase in employment generation
by this sector in 2011.
Contract research and contract manufacturing systems are paving
?
new opportunities for the Indian pharmaceutical market. Indian
players have the opportunity now to participate in the global
generics growth story and benefit from it. Contract manufacturing
is growing at a very fast pace and is estimated to grow to US
$30billion, whereas contract research is estimated to reach US$610 billion. This will definitely play a positive role in further
employment generation by the sector.
?
The factors such as growing middle class population, rapid
urbanization, increase in lifestyle related diseases and penetration
of health insurance has led to dramatic growth in the Indian
pharmaceutical industry, which is expected to show double-digit
growth in the near future. There is also a growing demand for
skilled people in this sector, which was witnessed during the past
Quarters and is likely to continue in the future too.
?
Some of the companies have expressed their concern over the
soaring inflation and high cost of borrowing in the current year.
This may affect the growth of the industry if it continues further.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
284,351
311,051
333,751
16.8%
144700
9.9%
85700
50900
Real Estate and
Construction
January - June 2011
The Real Estate and Construction sector is
expected to add 144,700 jobs in 2011.
?
The stable economic growth has put the Real Estate and
Construction sector on the high growth path again.
?
Although the sector had experienced higher growth compared to
previous couple of years, it was still lower than the expectation of
the sector players. The prime reason behind this is that the latent
demand has not entirely translated into the actual demand in the
market.
?
This has led to a stable but slightly lower growth expectation in
terms of employment generation by the sector for the next couple
of Quarters and the sentiments for the year 2011 are a bit muted.
?
However, the Construction sector remained a big booster for the
employment growth. The investment in construction sector
accounts for 11% of India’s GDP and nearly 50% of India’s Gross
Fixed Capital Formation.
?
Since Construction sector accounts for about 65% of the total
investment in Infrastructure, it is expected to be the biggest
beneficiary. Due to the infrastructure development drive that the
country is currently witnessing, this sector is expected to generate
substantial number of jobs in the country.
?
Higher level of retail and hospitality related activities are also
expected to contribute to employment generation.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
859,312
914,500
1,004,022
5.6%
38600
3.1%
20000
8900
Trade including
Consumer Retail Services
January - June 2011
The Trade including Consumer, Retail and
Services sector is expected to add 38,600 jobs
in 2011.
?
This sector was on a higher growth path during 4th quarter of
2010, compared to the previous quarters. The expectations of the
companies depict, that during next couple of quarters and as well
as during the entire year 2011 strong growth trend will be
maintained on view of higher growth in international trade and
buoyant domestic market. .
?
The total retail sale in India is estimated at US$ 392.63 billion for
2011 and is expected to reach US$ 674.37 billion by 2014. Strong
economic growth, population expansion, increasing wealth of
middle income group and rapid construction of organised retail
infrastructure are the triggers for the significant growth witnessed
by this sector. With the expanding middle and upper class
consumer base, there will be substantial opportunities for the
sector in India’s tier II and III cities.
?
Entry of global companies and expansion of their chains in
different parts of the country has also been an encouraging factor
for this upbeat sentiment. Carrefour, the world’s second-largest
retailer, has opened its first cash-and-carry store in New Delhi.
Germany-based wholesale company Metro Cash & Carry (MCC)
opened its second wholesale centre at Uppal in Hyderabad, taking
its number of stores to six in the country. All such activities are
increasing the future potential for the sector and creating
opportunities for new employment generation across regions.
?
Higher growth in world economy, especially in the developed
countries in 2010, as compared to the previous year has raised the
activity levels in this sector. India’s export has grown by more than
26 per cent between April and December 2010 and import has
grown by 24 per cent during the same period, which raises
immense hope for the sector. Increase in international trade will
further raise employment by this sector. During 2010-11 India’s
export has grown by more than 26 per cent during April to
December 2010 and import has grown by 24 per cent during the
same period which raises hope for the sector.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
652,800
672,700
691,420
3.5%
93300
1.3%
33800
17900
Transport, Storage and
Communication
January - June 2011
The Transport, Storage and Communication
sector is expected to add 93,000 jobs in 2011.
?
Led by communication, this sector has again performed strongly
during 4th Quarter of 2010.
?
As reported by the companies surveyed the expectations for the
next couple of quarters and for the entire 2011 remain optimistic.
?
New telephone connections have grown by about 13 per cent,
compared to previous year. The flexibility in terms of number
portability is expected to increase the competition further,
amongst the service providers and in turn will lead to higher
employment generation in the coming months.
?
The transportation sector has shown a mixed pattern. The revenue
earning goods traffic by railways was higher by 2.5 per cent
during the fourth quarter of 2010 as compared to previous
quarter. Total railway traffic has grown by 3.2 per cent from April
to December 2010.
?
Though railway sector has shown some improvement, the port
sector has not picked up the growth momentum yet. The volume
of Cargo traffic has grown by only 1.1% during first three
Quarters of 2010-11 compared to the previous year.
?
Road transport and Civil Aviation sectors have witnessed strong
growth momentum between April and December 2010.
?
Increased activity in logistics related industries is another big
booster for employment growth in this sector.
Estimated
Total No. of Jobs
Expected
Expected
December 2010
June 2011
December 2011
2,682,600
2,716,400
2,775,900
city-wise employment outlook
Ahmedabad
Delhi & NCR
Hiring activities continued during the fourth Quarter of 2010, but
at a lower level of less than 5%. According to the expectations of
the companies covered under the survey, during 2011, the
employment generation may be slightly lower than that of 2010.
The sectors that performed well in terms of employment generation
are Education, Machinery and Non-Machinery manufacturing,
Hospitality, Healthcare, Trade including CRS and IT&ITES.
Significant hiring has taken place during the fourth quarter of 2010
also. This is likely to continue in 2011 at further higher rate. The
total new employment expected during the current year should be
higher than compared to 2010. Almost every sector has registered
high growth regarding employment generation. Amongst them
IT&ITES, Healthcare, Real Estate & Construction, Education, Training
& Consulting and Trade including CRS are worth mentioning.
Bangalore
Hyderabad
Bangalore has witnessed continuous growth in terms of
employment generation for the fourth Quarter of 2010. A higher
level of employment generation in 2011, compared to 2010 is
expected in this city. Almost all sectors have posted good growth
contributing to the city’ employment base. The expectation as
reported by the companies suggests further growth during 2011.
Positive growth momentum in hiring activities continued during the
fourth quarter of 2010.
Chennai
Most of the sectors have shown substantial growth in employment.
Amongst those IT&ITES, Pharma, Healthcare, Trade including CRS,
Hospitality, Energy & Infrastructure, Transport, Storage &
Communication are the leading ones.
Hiring was marginally lower during the fourth Quarter of 2010 as
compared to expectations. However, a significant number of jobs
were generated during the period compared to the previous year
and the initial Quarters of 2010. Chennai is expected to experience
a higher level of recruitment activity in 2011, compared to 2010.
The major driving sectors were BFSI, Trade including CRS,
Healthcare, Real Estate and Construction, Media & Entertainment,
Manufacturing and Education, Research & Consulting sectors.
Positive momentum is expected in 2011 but at a slightly lower
growth rate. The upcoming State Assembly election might be one
reason, that has restricted the companies from speculating.
Jan - Dec 2011
102,884
42,567
Jan - Dec 2011
Kolkata
After showing a stable trend in employment growth, Kolkata is
expected to follow similar employment generation in 2011. Though
the economy is looking positive, in view of upcoming assembly
elections, the sector players are adopting a wait and watch policy
2011. Banking, IT&ITES, Pharma, Trade including CRS, Real Estate &
Construction, Transportation, Storage & Communication,
Hospitality and Manufacturing of Machinery and Equipment are the
leading sectors in terms of employment generation.
Mumbai
102,616
Mumbai also witnessed high growth in employment during the
fourth quarter of 2010. The hiring activities are expected to be
better in 2011. BFSI, IT&ITES, Transport, Storage & Communication,
Real Estate & Construction, Media & Entertainment and Education,
Training and Consulting are the leading sectors to contribute to
Mumbai’s employment base.
38,648
Pune
Jan - Dec 2011
68,134
The strong positive growth momentum in hiring activities continued
in Pune during the fourth quarter of 2010. In the year 2011, Pune is
expected to continue the same growth trajectory it exhibited during
2010.. Though hiring took place across most of the sectors, IT&ITES,
Media & Entertainment, Manufacturing of Machinery & Equipment
and Education, Training & Consulting sectors have witnessed higher
level of activitycompared to the other sectors.
30,534
60,317
Though Hyderabad has shown increasing hiring activities in the past
months, the expected employment generation in the city during
2011 may be marginally lower than that of 2010.
63,968
37,600
July - December 2011
January - June 2011
Jan - Dec 2011
31,759
16,368
Jan - Dec 2011
20,794
28,101
25,251
24,897
15,391
9,535
Jan - Dec 2011
14,720
8,278
Mumbai
Jan - Dec 2011
6,442
7,712
4,356
4,554
3,818
3,636
3,891
Bangalore
Pune
Hyderabad
9,393
Delhi & NCR
Chennai
Kolkata
13,489
5,777
11,259
25251
Jan - Dec 2011
7,527
Ahmedabad
2,178
Summary and Conclusion
This Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey (MEtS) has covered employment generation and other employment related
aspects during the 4th Quarter of 2010 and has alongside captured the expectations with regard to employment
opportunities for the first two Quarters as well as for the entire year 2011.
Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey for the 1st Quarter 2010 had presented a growing sense of optimism spreading
across sectors and cities. However, the optimism was shadowed with concerns regarding the sustainability of the growth. The
subsequent reports for 2nd and 3rd Quarters showed that with the strengthening of the economy the optimism of the initial
months of 2010 had grown further and was translated into higher level of hiring activities for most of the sectors and
locations. A stable upward growth coupled with several government stimuli to boost the economy created positive
sentiments and the industry sectors were optimistic.
The current survey report also asserts that industries are confident of a stable growth of the economy and expect the same to
continue in 2011. The inter-industry movement of manpower will gain momentum along with new hiring activities at the
entry level.
The employment base of almost every sector has grown substantially during the fourth Quarter of 2010 and is showing signs
of further stable growth in 2011. Healthcare, Hospitality, IT & ITES, Education, Training and Consulting, Manufacturing
sectors are amongst the key sectors contributing to India’s employment base.
The top sectors that are likely to generate more than 200,000 jobs in 2011 are Hospitality, Real Estate & Construction, IT &
ITeS and Media & Entertainment. In terms of growth percentage, we find that Pharma, Real Estate & Construction, IT & ITeS,
Media 7 Entertainment and BFSI sectors are likely to occupy the top slots. Energy is relatively a weak performer compared to
other sectors.
The employment has shown an increasing trend in most of the cities covered in the survey. Bangalore, Pune, Delhi & NCR and
Mumbai have shown substantial increase in their employment base. The current survey estimation suggests that a total
number of 1.6 million jobs are expected to be added to the employment base of the country during the year 2011.
Appendix
A-1: Increase in Wage Bills across Sectors
Estimated Average
Increase during
3rd Quarter of 2010
Estimated Average
Increase during
4th Quarter of 2010
Expected Average
Increase during First
Two Quarters of 2011
3.10 %
2.90 %
3.10 %
2.90 %
3.00 %
3.20 %
3.10 %
2.30 %
2.80 %
3.80 %
3.70 %
3.00 %
3.10 %
3.60 %
3.23 %
2.32 %
3.84 %
3.10 %
2.47 %
3.12 %
2.40 %
2.80 %
2.50 %
3.12 %
3.80 %
3.62 %
6.20 %
7.56 %
5.18 %
6.52 %
5.90 %
6.50 %
5.72 %
5.64 %
6.45 %
6.60 %
5.83 %
7.60 %
6.96 %
Banking, Finance Services & Insurance
Energy
Healthcare
Hospitality
Manufacturing - Non- Machinery Products
Media & Entertainment
Pharma
A-2: City-wise Total Employment
Ahmedabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Delhi & NCR
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Mumbai
Pune
Expected Average
Increase during 2011
11.20 %
10.76 %
8.82 %
10.39 %
10.00 %
12.40 %
10.16 %
10.48 %
11.19 %
11.20 %
10.32 %
12.81 %
10.99 %
Estimated
Employment
December 2009
Estimated
Employment
September 2010
Estimated
Employment
December 2010
Expected
Employment
June 2011
Expected
Employment
December 2011
37,555
103,705
308,329
491,411
71,267
140,807
558,464
50,752
44,287
117,245
347,417
561,125
85,516
161,354
627,210
62,051
46,465
121,602
372,314
586,376
89,334
170,747
655,311
66,605
50,355
132,860
409,914
650,344
97,045
186,137
715,627
73,048
53,992
142,395
440,448
688,992
102,823
202,505
758,195
81,325
Growth Rate
A-3: City-wise Increase in Employment
Jan - Sep
2010
Oct - Dec
2010
Jan - Dec
2010
Jan - June
2011
Ahmedabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Delhi & NCR
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Mumbai
Pune
6,732
13,540
39,088
69,714
14,249
20,517
68,746
11,299
2,178
4,356
24,897
25,251
3,818
9,393
28,101
4,554
8,910
17,897
63,985
94,965
18,067
29,910
96,847
15,853
3,891
11,259
37,600
63,968
7,712
15,391
60,317
6,442
A-4: Expected Increase in Wage Bills across Cities
Ahmedabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Delhi & NCR
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Mumbai
Pune
Estimated Average
Increase in
4th Quarter of 2010
3.1 %
3.7 %
3.3 %
4.1 %
3.3 %
3.7 %
3.3 %
3.7 %
A-5: Estimated Proportion of Fresher/Experienced
Manpower across Sectors, December 2010
Energy
Healthcare
Hospitality
Manufacturing – Machinery and Equipment
Pharma
Note: Fresher is considered as less than 3 years of experience
Jan - Dec
2011
7,527
20,794
68,134
102,616
13,489
31,759
102,884
14,720
Expected Average
Increase in
First Two Quarters of 2011
5.7 %
5.9 %
6.1 %
7.2 %
5.8 %
6.5 %
6.9 %
6.8 %
Proportion of Fresher (%)
47.32 %
62.54 %
44.35 %
56.70 %
70.94 %
48.07 %
57.72 %
55.53 %
63.35 %
47.72 %
57.11 %
65.70 %
67.87 %
Oct - Dec
2010 (%)
4.92
3.72
7.17
3.46
4.46
5.82
4.48
7.34
Dec 2010 During
June 2011 (%) 2011 (%)
8.79
9.60
10.82
11.40
9.02
9.54
9.62
10.38
16.20
17.10
18.30
17.50
15.10
18.60
15.70
22.10
Expected Average
Increase in 2011
10.6 %
11.1 %
10.7 %
12.1 %
10.8 %
10.6 %
10.7 %
12.4 %
Proportion of Experienced (%)
52.68 %
37.46 %
55.65 %
43.30 %
29.06 %
51.93 %
42.28 %
44.47 %
36.65 %
52.28 %
42.89 %
34.30 %
32.13 %
A-6: Estimated proportion of fresher and
Experienced Employees across Cities
Proportion of Fresher (%)
Ahmedabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Mumbai
Pune
Delhi NCR
Proportion of Experienced (%)
55.64 %
55.37 %
58.97 %
59.29 %
57.29 %
53.31 %
64.75 %
51.85 %
44.36 %
44.63 %
41.03 %
40.71 %
42.71 %
46.69 %
35.25 %
48.15 %
A-7: Estimated Proportion of Fresher/Experienced
across Cites and Ownership, December 2010
Ahmedabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Mumbai
Pune
Delhi NCR
Public Limited
Private Limited
Proportion of
Fresher (%)
Proportion of
Experienced (%)
62.31 %
54.31 %
62.77 %
59.74 %
72.50 %
40.93 %
73.96 %
40.02 %
37.7 %
45.7 %
37.2 %
40.3 %
27.5 %
59.1 %
26.0 %
60.0 %
Proportion of
Fresher (%)
53.9 %
55.5 %
57.9 %
59.1 %
54.1 %
64.4 %
63.3 %
54.6 %
A-8: Estimated Percentage of Work Outsourced Across Sectors, December 2010
Energy
Healthcare
Hospitality
Manufacturing -Machinery and Equipment
Pharma
Percentage of work outsourced
11.2 %
17.2 %
7.0 %
5.9 %
13.0 %
16.7 %
16.1 %
15.3 %
10.1 %
6.2 %
17.6 %
15.0 %
17.8 %
Proportion of
Experienced (%)
46.1 %
44.5 %
42.1 %
40.9 %
45.9 %
35.6 %
36.7 %
45.4 %
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Employment Trends Survey - Indian Staffing Federation

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