SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Statusrapport – januar 2015

SKAGEN Kon-Tiki
Statusrapport – mars 2015
Hovedtrekk – mars 2015
• SKAGEN Kon-Tiki steg 3,1 prosent i mars mens vekstmarkedsindeksen til MSCI steg med 4,2 prosent i den
samme perioden. Det meste av forskjellen skyldes sterk utvikling for kinesiske aksjer, hvor fondet har
mindre eksponering enn indeks.
• Vi følger nøye med på våre investeringer i Kina ettersom det er forventet lavere økonomisk vekst og det er
usikkerhet rundt implementeringen av reformer i landet. Resultatet av utviklingen kan bli noe svingninger i
kinesiske aksjer i tiden som kommer.
• I porteføljen fortsetter Great Wall Motor som beste bidragsyter. Selskapet kom med relativt gode tall for
februar, og disse viste videre vekst for de tre nye toppmodellene. Samsung Electronics bidro også bra etter
introduksjonen av sin nye S6 mobiltelefon. Den største negative bidragsyteren var Vale, som er under
press fra makroøkonomisk motvind i Brasil og lavere råvarepriser. State Bank of India hadde også en svak
måned på grunn av et planlagt delsalg av statens eiendel, noe som skapte et salgspress for aksjen.
• Vi økte posten i Sabanci etter et møte med selskapet hvor de bekreftet våre investeringstese. Vi brukte
også muligheten med svakere kurser i Banrisul og CBD til å øke postene.
• China (Shanghai) og Nigeria, etter valget i landet, var blant de beste markedene. Blant de dårligste
markedene var Brasil og Tyrkia.
• Verdsettelsen av vekstmarkedene mot de utviklede markedene er nå 30 prosent lavere. Det er potensiale
for en omvurdering etter fire år hvor vekstmarkedene har gjort det dårligere enn de utviklede markedene.
• Porteføljen er verdsatt til P/E 2015e på 8,2x og P/B på 1,1x. Indeksen er respektive 12,0x og 1,6x.
* Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstallene for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og er etter fradrag for gebyrer.
2
A
Avkastning, mars 2015
A
Mars
1Q
Hittil i år
1 år
3 år
5 år
10 år
Siden start*
SKAGEN Kon Tiki A
3,1%
6,2%
6,2%
21,5%
11,6%
7,9%
13,7%
16,6%
MSCI EM Index
4,2%
10,1%
10,1%
35,5%
12,6%
8,2%
11,1%
10,1%
-1,1%
-3,9%
-3,9%
-14,0%
-1,1%
-0,3%
2,6%
6,5%
Relativ avkastning
Note: Alle avkastningstall utover 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning)
* Startdato: 5. april 2002
3
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki har slått indeks i 11 av 13 år (%)
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A* (NOK)
MSCI EM Index (NOK)
103
63
59
50
49
48
32
23 22 23 21
14
21 19
21
20
6
10
6
12
6 10
2014
YTD
2015
-14 -16
-30 -33
2002
-36 -40
2003
2004
2005
Note: Alle tall i NOK, etter gebyrer
* Startdato: 5. april 2002
4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Utviklingen i vekstmarkedene i mars 2015 (i NOK)
Kina (lokal)
Nigeria
Ungarn
Sør Korea
Filippinene
Kina (Internasjonal)
Indonesia
Vekstmarkedsindeksen
Egypt
Polen
Industrialiserte markeder
USA
Malaysia
Russland
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A
Chile
Mexico
Tsjekkia
Kenya
Slovenia
Thailand
Sør Afrika
Kroatia
India
Ghana
Tyrkia
Vietnam
Pakistan
Brasil
5
20
14
10
7
7
6
6
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-7
Utviklingen i vekstmarkedene hittil i 2015 (i NOK)
Kina (lokal)
Russland
Filippinene
Ungarn
Sør Korea
India
Thailand
Kina (Internasjonal)
Kenya
Industrialiserte markeder
Vekstmarkedsindeksen
Indonesia
USA
Vietnam
Sør Afrika
Chile
Malaysia
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A
Mexico
Tsjekkia
Egypt
Polen
Pakistan
Slovenia
Kroatia
Tyrkia
Brasil
Nigeria
Ghana
6
25
21
20
19
14
11
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
2
-3
-6
-8
-8
-8
-11
Akkumulert nettoflyt til store regionale/land fond
(USD mrd) per 31. mars 2015
7
EM versus DM – innkjøpssjefenes indeks
Ved utgangen av mars 2015
8
P/E for vekstmarkedene – rabatt mot utviklede markeder
Januar 1995 – mars 2015
Emerging Markets P/E
Developed Markets P/E
45
40
35
30
25
Hist. Avg
21
20
Hist. Avg
15
14
10
5
0
Kilde: Bloomberg historiske multipler, SKAGEN research.
9
P/B for vekstmarkedene – rabatt mot utviklede markeder
Januar 1995 – mars 2015
Emerging Markets P/B
Developed Markets P/B
4,5
4
3,5
3
Hist. Avg
2,5
2,4
2
Hist. Avg
1,5
1,5
1
0,5
0
Kilde: Bloomberg historiske multipler, SKAGEN research.
10
Største bidragsytere, mars 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK Millions
Selskap
NOK Millions
Great Wall Motor
397 ##### Vale
-157
Samsung Electronics
396 ##### State Bank of India
-142
Bharti Airtel
280 ##### Banrisul
-131
Hyundai Motor
211 ##### Marfrig Global Foods
-105
X5 Retail Group
131 ##### Tullow Oil
-102
Naspers
116 ##### Hindalco
-75
AP Moeller - Maersk
92 ##### Cosan
-72
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings
68 ##### Aveng
-57
KIWOOM Securities
64 ##### Tech Mahindra
-54
ABB
56 ##### Mahindra & Mahindra
-52
Total verdiskapning i mars (NOK MM):
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
11
1456
Største bidragsytere i 1Q 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK Millions
Selskap
NOK Millions
Great Wall Motor
752
8E+08 Hyundai Motor
-346
Samsung Electronics
498
5E+08 Banrisul
-269
Bharti Airtel
360
4E+08 Marfrig Global Foods
-238
AP Moeller - Maersk
311
3E+08 Vale
-233
Naspers
255
3E+08 Sabanci
-172
Lenovo Group
189
2E+08 State Bank of India
-142
KIWOOM Securities
188
2E+08 Tullow Oil
-124
UPL
164
2E+08 Empresas ICA
-84
X5 Retail Group
162
2E+08 Cosan
-83
Shiseido
159
2E+08 Aveng
-80
Total verdiskapning i 1Q (NOK MM):
NB: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
12
3103
Kjøp og salg, mars 2015
Kjøp
Salg
CBD
Vi fortsatte å kjøpe i selskapet, som vi mener har god vekst og
er attraktivt priset til 0,3x pris/salg og 5,0x EV/EBITDA for 2015
OCI NV (Ut)
Vi solgte oss ut fordi aksjen har nådd vårt kursmål.
Sabanci
Nylig svakere aksjekurs har gitt muligheten til å øke posten.
Aksjen er billig på bokførte verdier og et mål om 15%
avkastning på egenkapitalen, noe som er innen rekkevidde.
Banrisul
Vi økte posten etter at aksjen har blitt trykket ned av
makroøkonomisk motvind i Brasil. Verdsettelsen for denne
godt kapitaliserte banken er under bokførte verdier og aksjen
har en utbytteavkastning på 7 prosent.
UIE (Ut)
Vi solgte oss ut fordi aksjen har nådd vårt kursmål.
Bharti Airtel
Vi reduserte posten fordi aksjen nærmet seg kursmål.
Great Wall Motor
Vi reduserte posten fordi aksjen nærmet seg kursmål.
Kiwoom Securities
Vi reduserte posten fordi aksjen nærmet seg kursmål.
Casino
Vi byttet ut Casino med CBD.
13
Viktigste endringer så langt i 2015
Økte poster
Q1
14
Petroleo Brasileiro
(Ny)
Cia Brasileira
(Ny)
Hitachi
Sabanci
Banrisul
Vale
Euronav
Hindalco
Knightsbridge Shipping
Cosan
Golar LNG
Reduserte poster
Q1
Heineken
OCI
Rocket Internet
UIE
Afren
Great Wall Motor
Bharti Airtel
DIA
Casino Guichard
Perrachon
Kiwoom Securities
AP Moeller - Maersk
Familymart
Tech Mahindra
Sistema
Samsung Electronics
Massmart
Apollo Tyres
Exxaro Resources
Yingli Green Energy
Harbin Electric
Lenovo Group
Mahindra & Mahindra
Kuribayashi Steamship
Avance Gas Holding
UPM-Kymmene
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
Største poster i SKAGEN Kon-Tiki, mars 2015
Postens
Kurs
størrelse, %
P/E
P/E
P/BV
Div. yield
Kurs
Oppside
2014e
2015e
siste
14e %
mål
%
Samsung Electronics
8,4 1 104 000
7,1
6,7
1,0
1,8
1 500 000
36
Hyundai Motor
7,3
111 000
3,9
3,6
0,5
2,7
250 000
125
Great Wall Motor
4,9
54,8
16,5
11,2
4,3
1,8
60
9
State Bank of India
3,7
267
10,7
8,1
1,2
1,5
450
69
Mahindra & Mahindra
3,4
1 188
14,0
11,9
3,0
1,3
1 500
26
Bharti Airtel
2,9
393
24,6
19,7
2,6
0,5
450
14
ABB
2,9
183
22,0
15,3
3,4
2,7
205
12
Sabanci Holding
2,7
9,18
9,0
7,7
1,0
1,1
14
53
AP Moller-Maersk
2,5
14 540
11,2
10,0
1,2
2,1
15 500
7
Naspers
2,4
1 859
53,1
37,2
9,8
0,3
2 100
13
Lenovo
2,2
11,3
17,4
12,6
3,9
2,9
14
24
Richter Gedeon
1,9
3 840
29,0
14,0
1,3
1,5
5 000
30
Vektet topp 12
45,3
9,2
7,8
1,2
1,8
44
Vektet topp 35
72,4
10,5
8,2
1,1
2,1
46
MSIC EM index
13,1
12,0
1,6
2,6
Topp 35 @ kursmål
16,3
12,6
1,8
1,4
15
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki er verdsatt med en betydelig rabatt mot
vekstmarkedene til tross for en høyere vekt i «dyre»
sektorer og lav vekt i «billige» sektorer.
14
13,3
12,1
12
10,5
10
8,2
8
6
4
2
1,5
1,2
0
P/E +1y
P/E +2y
Kon-Tiki
P/BV
MSCI EM Index
Note: Verdsettelsesestimater er basert på SKAGEN Kon-Tikis uavhengige analyse og kan variere fra konsensusestimatene.
16
P/B for SKAGEN Kon-Tiki versus vekstmarkedene
4
P/BV SKAGEN Kon-Tiki
3,5
P/BV MSCI EM Indeks
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Per 28. februar 2015
17
P/E for SKAGEN Kon-Tiki versus vekstmarkedene
18,0
16,0
P/E SKAGEN Kon-Tiki
P/E MSCI EM Indeks
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
-
Per 28. februar 2015
18
Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%)
Fond
Geografisk fordeling
Sektorfordeling
Indeks
3
Energi
16
7
Frontier Markets
21
4
1
9
Japan
12
Defensive forbruksvarer
5
0
8
4
2
Medisin
Kjerne EU
16
Bank og finans
28
27
26
Nord Amerika
3
0
2
0
12
Informasjonsteknologi
16
17
19
Norden
9
0
6
Telekom
19
15
16
EMEA
7
Kapitalvarer,
service og transport
Inntektsavhengige
forbruksvarer
Kontanter
62
69
5
Råvarer
Nyttetjenester
50
Asia ex Japan
8
7
7
Sør Amerika
14
0
3
4
0
Kontanter
4
0
Nyheter og annet om
porteføljeselskaper
- på engelsk
Key earnings releases and corporate news, March 2015
Hyundai Motor
(7.3% weight):
Great Wall Motor
(4.9% weight):
21
Improved governance on the horizon?
Summary: Positive news on corporate governance has surfaced recently. First, South Korea’s National Pension
Service said it will oppose the reappointment of two external board members at Kia Motors Corp. and Hyundai
Mobis Co. because they failed to fulfil their fiduciary duties over a land deal last year. The external directors had
delegated their voting rights to representative directors at Kia and Mobis without appropriately discussing the need
for the land or how the companies would fund the deal, the pension fund said in an e-mailed statement. The
companies denied this. Second, Dutch APG Asset Management proposed at the AGM to set up a corporate
governance committee to improve decision making. The committee should report its activities annually and the
company should appoint a director who looks into governance issues for shareholders, APG said. Co-CEO said
“We are actively studying ways to improve shareholder value” and “We will work to implement the proposal.”
Implications for Investment Case: It could be that the disastrous property purchase last year triggered so much
anger among external shareholders that management has finally had to pay attention. Losing face and being
attacked even by domestic investors is humiliating for a company like Hyundai. The dividend payout hike, share
buyback and now, possibly, an independent corporate governance committee are definitely steps in the right
direction.
FY14 in line with expectations and confirms launch of H8 in April
Summary: FY14 net profit of RMB 8.05bn was in line with pre-released numbers from end January and marks a
2% YoY decline. Operating profit of RMB 9.64bn was above pre-release of RMB 9.25bn and is down 3% YoY with
sales of RMB 62.6bn, up 10% YoY. 4Q14 net profit rose 13% YoY. Furthermore, the company confirmed the relaunch of its urban higher end SUV, Haval H8, which will go on sale nationwide in conjunction with the Shanghai
Auto Show 20-29 April. The H9 was called back twice in 2014 due to a knocking noise in the transmission when
running at high speed. The problem is now resolved with the help of ZF Friedrichshafen AG, and the company
states that the H9 has also been upgraded in many other respects.
Implications for Investment Case: Result is in line so neutral, but re-launch of H8 is positive if correct. Although
this will not be a volume seller (likely 2-3k per month or 2-3% of total shipment as the newly introduced H9 rural
high end SUV which sold 4,885 units in January and February combined), it proves that it is able to expand its
product portfolio to compete with foreign JV brands. Note that this is a vehicle which in size is equal to the BMW
X5 which starts from RMB 853k in China. Price-wise, it is comparable to much smaller Honda CRV, Hyundai
Tucson and VW Tiguan.
Key earnings releases and corporate news, March 2015 (cont.)
Solar sector
exposure (2.6%
weight):
X5 Retail Group
(1.0% weight):
22
China solar sector; aggressive 2015 installation target
Summary: China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) announced solar target for 2015 to be 17.8 GW,
ahead of 15 GW from draft plans from January. Installations for 2014 was 11GW missing its initial target of 14
GW. The 2015 target thus marks an increase of 62% versus actual 2014 installation. Key provisions include: 1)
China will encourage projects below 20MW, 2) China will dedicate specialised projects to high emission areas
such as Hebei, Ningxia, Qinghai and Gansu provinces, 3) Similar to 2014, restrictions have been placed on the
modification of investment terms ahead of commercial operation, 4) Unplanned projects from 2014 are
cancelled, and to ensure provinces meet their target this year, 2015 targets may be re-provisioned by the end of
April to areas which are ready for new installations and 5) Detailed targets were set by provinces.
Implications for Investment Case: Positive. Supportive policies in China should be beneficial to solar sector,
with China representing +25% of global installation in 2014. If targets are met, China alone would fuel global
installation by 15% in 2015. As for 2013 and 2014, installation might be back-end loaded, as provinces need to
come up with local development plans by end-April and roll out will also be dependent on equipment prices. Our
exposure to the sector is GCL-Poly Energy (1.0% weight), OCI Co (0.9% weight), REC Silicon (0.4% weight)
and Yingi Green Energy (0.3% weight).
4Q14 results show continuing margin expansion
Summary: X5 reported 4Q14 sales of RUB 181.6m, up 21% YoY and LFL sales up 11.6% YoY. Gross margin as
well as EBITDA margin improved 10bps YoY to 24.6% and 7.4%, respectively. Earnings were RUB 4.9bn, up 13%
YoY adjusted for a RUB 2.7bn impairment charge on land and buildings. Operating cash flow fell 40% YoY to
RUB 13.6bn on declining days payables and increased inventories.
Implications for Investment Case: The margin expansion is a positive and key to our investment case, as X5
continues its operational turnaround. The near-term focus will be on food inflation in Russia, which reached 23%
in February and the impact on food spending. Declining wages will make shoppers more cautious about food
purchases and might turn them towards smaller shops and discount stores to control spending. This should
benefit X5, which derives 68% of sales from discount stores. At 0.2x price/sales 2015e, the shares are attractively
priced compared to competitor Magnit at 1.1x and EM median at 0.6x.
The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki
Samsung Electronics is one of the world's largest producers of consumer electronics, with over
155,000 employees. The company is global #1 in mobile phones and smartphones, the world's
largest in TV and a global #1 in memory chips. Samsung also produces appliances, cameras,
printers, PCs and air-conditioning units.
Hyundai Motor is the world's 4th largest car maker, including its 39% stake in Kia Motor. Sold 4.7m
cars in 2013 and has a c. 5% global market share. Focus on smaller/less expensive cars. Strong
position in several countries and in emerging markets such as India and China.
Great Wall Motor is a Chinese car manufacturer with sales of over 752,000 units in 2013, up 24%
YoY. It has a market share of more than 3.5% in China. Volume is divided between SUVs, sedans
and pick-ups, where it is market leader. The cars are certified in the EU and Great Wall exports to
120 markets. It has its own engine and transmission production.
Largest bank in India with 17% market share (c. 25% including 5 associate banks). Also presence in
life insurance, asset management and investment banking. 15,000 branches, 32,000 ATMs, 130
million customers and over 220,000 employees. Largest Indian overseas bank with 190 offices in 34
countries.
Mahindra & Mahindra is the largest manufacturer of utility vehicles in India (50% market share) and
tractors (40% market share). It has several listed subsidiaries including Tech Mahindra and M&M
financial services (largest financier of UVs and tractors in India).
23
The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki (continued)
Bharti Airtel is India’s largest private integrated telecom company, and it is a leading global player (#4)
with operations in 20 countries across Asia and Africa. They had around 287m customers across their
operations at the end of June 2014. They separated out towers in part owned unit (passive
infrastructure). Bharti family and SingTel own 30% each.
ABB is a leader in power and automation technologies that enable utility and industrial customers to
improve performance while lowering environmental impact. The group operates in around 100
countries and employs 146,000 people. Approximately 50% of sales stem from emerging markets
and this share is rapidly increasing.
Turkey’s leading and financial conglomerate in sectors including financial services, energy, cement,
retail and industrials. The company has 10 companies currently listed on the Istanbul Stock
Exchange and operates in 18 countries across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North Africa and North
and South America. Controlled by the Sabanci family.
AP Møller-Maersk is a Danish conglomerate with four core businesses which include Maersk Line
(container shipping), APM Terminals (global terminal network in 68 countries), Maersk Oil and
Maersk Drilling. The company is going through a process of streamlining the business by terminating
non-core and underperforming assets.
South-African listed media and internet holding company incorporated in 1915. They have a strong
Pay-TV business in South-Africa and Sub-Saharan African countries and a fast growing internet
division focused on commerce, communities, content, communication and games. They hold a 34%
stake in Chinese Tencent and 29% of Russian Mail.ru.
24
Additional information
25
Market Cap as % of nominal GDP: EM vs US
26
Weekly net flows to EM as % of AUM*, by region
(as of Mar 31, 2015)
*Note: AUM at each week’s start; over past 4 weeks.
Source: EPFR, Samsung Securities.
27
Cumulative performance in USD
Dec ’12 - Mar ’15
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Emerging Markets
Source: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research.
28
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Developed Markets
Dec-14
Mar-15
EM equity volatility
MSCI EM Index 30-day implied volatility, as of Mar 31, 2015
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research.
29
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
For mer informasjon, vennligst se:
Siste Markedsrapport
Informasjon om SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A på våre nettsider
• Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av
markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen
kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap.
• SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold
for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt,
og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp
eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter
som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av
selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.