1 Nanotechnology in Germany: From Forecasting to Technological

1 Nanotechnology in Germany: From Forecasting to Technological

NOTICE: This is the author’s version of a work accepted for publication
by Elsevier. Changes resulting from the publishing process, including
peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting and other quality
control mechanisms, may not be reflected in this document. Changes
may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication.
A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Cleaner Production,
[16, 8-9], May - June 2008, DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2007.04.016.
Nanotechnology in Germany: From Forecasting to Technological Assessment
to Sustainability Studies.
Axel Zweck, Gerd Bachmann, Wolfgang Luther and Christiane Ploetz
Future Technologies Division, VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, P.O. Box 10 11 39, 40002
Duesseldorf, Germany.
Corresponding author: Christiane Ploetz, [email protected], Fax: ++49-211-6214 139
Abstract
The issues of innovations and sustainability are discussed more or less separately, so that
risks and potentials of new technologies for a sustainable development often fail to be detected as early as possible.
The following article analyses this relation in the light of the development of the nanotechnology funding strategy in Germany which was guided by an integrated approach of technology
management activities. This led from technological forecasting activities, the definition of application fields and market surveys to early technological assessment activities and sustainability studies combined with communication measures. The importance of sustainability aspects grew steadily throughout this process, and the integrated approach facilitated the early
detection of relevant sustainability issues to be dealt with in the future. This underlines the
importance of accompanying innovation measures in research funding for detecting sustainability potentials of new technologies.
Keywords: Technological forecasting, innovation and technology assessment, research
funding, integrated approach, public perception
1
1. Introduction: Two Cultures: Innovation and Sustainability
Nanotechnology is seen as one of the most important fields of innovation and technology
today. At the same time, the challenge of creating wealth and human well-being without exploiting natural resources on an unsustainable basis is seen as one of the most eminent
global issues to be solved – a view which is not only held by environmentalist groups, but
becoming more and more integrated into business activities. Sustainability is increasingly
seen as a potential global market bringing opportunities to companies that manage to translate these issues into products and services (World Resources Institute [1]). Ideally, sustainability needs and criteria should be involved in the innovation process from the very beginning, so that the risks and potentials of new technologies can be detected as early as
possible facilitating the precondition for these technologies to evolve their potentials for contributing to sustainability. Hitherto, the experience in this and many other research fields
shows that the issues of innovation and sustainability usually are discussed and promoted
separately, and that different research cultures with only a little overlap make it difficult to find
synergies between these research areas – a situation reminding of the lack of communication between different research disciplines described as the two cultures of research by
Snow [2].
This challenge is also typical of German research funding. Both nanotechnology and sustainability have been on the research agenda in Germany since the early nineties. A short
overview on the organisational structure of the most important German research funding
agencies (table 1) shows that nanotechnology and environmental/sustainability research are
often based in different programmes, divisions or thematic sections, although some overlaps
exist in certain programmes, institutes or funding activities. As a consequence, links between
the research agendas of these two research fields and cultures do not form automatically but
have to be implemented actively through systematic approaches that integrate both views. In
the following, we describe the development of nanotechnology in the activities of Germany’s
Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) – the main public agency in Germany charged
2
with the promotion of pre-commercial research and development – between 1990 and 2005.
The approach includes integrated measures covering forecasting activities through market
analyses and technology assessment activities. We also trace whether and how these activities managed to establish links with sustainability issues as laid down in the national sustainability strategy (German Federal Government [3]).
Organization
General type of
Allocation of nanotech-
Allocation of sustaina-bility
research funding
nology activities within or-
activities within organiza-
ganizational structure
tional structure
German Ministry for Applied research
Division 5: Key Technolo-
Division 7: Provision for the
Education and Re-
gies – Research for Innova-
Future – Cultural, Basic and
search (BMBF)
tion
Sustainability Research
Engineering, Natural Sci-
Natural Sciences, Social
ences
Sciences
Applied Research
Key Technologies
Earth and Environment
Applied research
Section D - Mathematics,
Section E- Environmental
Natural Sciences, Engineer-
Research
German Research
Basic Research
Foundation
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
Leibniz Association
ing
Fraunhofer Associa- Applied, market-
Fraunhofer Nanotechnology
Fraunhofer-ISI, Fraunhofer-
tion
Alliance, including 1/3 of all
UMSICHT
oriented research
Fraunhofer Institutes
Max-Planck-Society Basic Research
Several research fields, e.g.
Earth Sciences and Climate
Solid State Re-
Research
search/Material Sciences
Table 1: Important German research funding organizations and their thematic structure with
respect to nanotechnology and sustainability.
2. The Evolution of Nanotechnology in Germany
Nanotechnology has been on the research agenda of the BMBF since the early nineties. Up
to now, the funding of nanotechnology projects has increased more than tenfold to 134 Mio.
Euro per year in 2006. Not only the volume of funding has increased significantly, but a sub-
3
stantial shift in the strategic orientation of the nanotechnology funding policy has also
evolved in the last decade, with sustainability aspects playing an increasing role.
The BMBF started its nanotechnology activities by funding single nanotechnology related
projects in the context of its Materials Research and Physical Technologies programmes. In
the late nineties, the BMBF recognised the importance of nanotechnology as a key crosssection leading to technological achievements in a lot of industrial fields of application, and
therefore started to fund interdisciplinary and interdivisional joint projects with industry and
academic consortia in order to facilitate the process from invention to innovation. In 2003, the
BMBF realized that an overall national strategy for the future funding and support of
nanotechnology was essential in order to remain competitive on the global market and to
solve future challenges in the areas of health, the environment, and safety issues. Therefore,
the BMBF has concentrated its nanotechnology project funding on so called “lead innovations” which are value chain oriented collaborative projects between partners from the scientific community and the commercial world with a strong focus on societal demands in the
application fields of mobility, health, energy and ICT. Meanwhile, five lead innovations have
been implemented:
• Nanofab (nanotechnology for high performance ICT components)
• NanoforLife (nanotechnology for new medical therapies and diagnostics)
• NanoMobil (nanotechnology for resource-saving automobiles)
• NanoLux (nanotechnology for energy efficient lighting)
• NanoChem (production and safety assessment of nanomaterials for industrial applications)
In addition to the funding of research projects, the BMBF has started some accompanying
measures to support the industrial development of nanotechnology applications and to fully
exploit the potential of nanotechnology for the societal progress. The objectives pursued by
these accompanying measures are:
4
• Clustering of resources and networking
• Getting people informed and enhance public understanding of nanotechnology
• Investigation of societal implications and side effects/potential risks of nanotechnology
• Establishing of adequate education and training possibilities
• Enhancing the fascination of young people and pupils for nanotechnology.
In order to achieve these goals, the BMBF has initiated several accompanying measures:
• Establishment of nanotechnology competency centers in 1998 as nation-wide, subjectspecific networks with regional clusters in the most important areas of nanotechnology
• Performance of several ITA (Innovation and Technology Analysis) studies to assess implications of nanotechnology on health, the environment and the economy
• Implementation of the touring exhibition “NanoTruck” to inform people and enhance public
understanding of nanotechnology
• Initiation of the NanoCare project to explore and assess potential health risks of nanoparticles.
The evolvement of the BMBF nanotechnology funding strategy has been strongly influenced
by an integrated approach of several technology management activities, which have been
performed from the early nineties up to now. These technology management activities can
be divided into four different phases and types of activities, with strong overlaps between
those phases. Figure 1 gives an overview on the phases giving rise to increased consideration for sustainability aspects in the innovation process:
ƒ
Technological forecasting (both general and for special innovation fields such as
nanobiotechnology)
ƒ
Market assessment and applications
ƒ
Innovation and technology analysis and
5
ƒ
Communication.
Development of Nanotechnology Funding in Germany and Integration of
Sustainability Aspects by Means of Integrated Technology Management
ITM Activities
Forecasting
Market Assessment
ITA
Communication
Technological Potential
Publications, Patents
Applications and Products
in Industrial Branches
Implications on Environment,
Society, Ethics, Health etc.
Public Awareness,
Chances and Risks
BMBF R&D Project Funding
Nanotech Joint Projects
Interdivisional and interdisciplinary
e. g. Nanobiotechnology,
Nanotech related Projects
New Materials, Laser technology,
Physics/Chemistry
Nanotech Lead Innovations
oriented to societal demands and
sustainability e. g. mobility, health, energy
BMBF Innovation Accompanying Measures
Clustering and Networking ITA Studies
Health
Competency Centers
Environment
Economy
160
Communication Risk Assessment
Nanotruck
NanoCare
1 4Nanotechnology
0
Project Funding by BMBF
€ p.a.)
1 2(Mio.
0
1 2 5 ,9
100
8 8 ,2
5 4 ,9
60
7
8
9
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
14
6
1995
13
5
1994
12
4
1993
11
2 7 ,6
1 7 ,9
3
1 5 ,9
2
1 2 ,7
1
1 1 ,5
10
40
0
9 6 ,5
7 3 ,9
80
20
1 3 4 ,4
2006
Figure 1 gives an overview over the most important steps and activities of the BMBF since
the early nineties. As the application fields of nanotechnology become clearer in the forecasting process, ITA and sustainability issues become more important.
The four phases of technology management activities are also analyzed in the light of their
relation to sustainability as being manifested in the following funding activities of the BMBF.
The following section will describe these phases of the innovation process in detail. The
phases, however, cannot be strictly separated or attributed to discrete periods, since different
fields of nanotechnology are involved at different stages in the process (e.g. forecasting for
nanobiotechnology as an issue started as late as 2001, while other fields like nanotubes
have been in focus since 1993).
6
Phase 1: Technological Forecasting
The first phase is characterized by a strong focus on classic forecasting activities. "Technological forecasting" (TF), as understood in this paper is the continuous monitoring of technological developments leading to an early identification of promising future applications and to
an assessment of their potentials (Holtmannspötter and Zweck [4]). TF is widely applied in
and for both the public sector and business (Martino [5], Coates [6], Cleeman and Peiffer [7],
Servatius [8]). A broad range of quantitative and qualitative methods is applied in forecasting
studies, e.g. expert surveys (Porter et al., [9]), Delphi studies, interviews, questionnaires,
patent and literature analyses. Reger [10] stresses the importance of a network and process
orientation in technology foresight.
In the case of nanotechnology, the BMBF has commissioned several forecasting studies between the early nineties and today. The aim of these forecasting exercises was to identify
new and promising fields for research funding, to deliver a sound and broad information basis for funding decisions in these research fields and to prepare these issues for funding activities. The results of these processes were published in so-called “technology analyses”,
which summarize the process and results of the forecasting exercise for nanotechnology in
general (Bachmann [11], [12]) and various subfields of nanotechnology, e.g. fullerenes
(Eickenbusch et al. [13]), SXM-technologies (Bachmann [14]), nanotubes (Hoffschulz et al.
[15]), nanobiology (Wevers and Wechsler [16], Wagner [17]), and XMR technologies (Mengel
[18]), providing information on the technology, reviewing its promising prospects for various
sectors of industry and society, describing possible applications, analyzing research deficits
and impediments, and submitting recommendations.
Like most TF processes, the approach in these studies comprised three steps: the identification of new technologies, the validation of these issues and the implementation of measures
to harvest the expected benefits of the technology. In practice, these steps are often overlapping and iterative. The TF sequence is usually repeated, and it becomes more focused
and specific with each round of forecasting. The forecasting process for nanotechnology in a
7
broad sense was intertwined with smaller processes centred on the various subfields mentioned above. Figure 2 portrays the TF process carried out in these studies at a glance. The
approach applied in the abovementioned studies is described in full in Holtmannspötter and
Zweck [4], which is based on earlier publications by Cleemann and Peiffer [7] and Servatius
[8].
Stages in Technological Forecasting
Physics
Biology
Experts
Monitoring
abroad
Publications
Chem istry
Congresses
Databases
Patents
Search for new scientific/ technological options
Search for solutions to stated problems
IDENTIFICATION
Structuring of Information
Approximate characterisation of technology
Funding programmes
at home
Expert hearings &
workshops
abroad
Statements
Studies
and surveys
external
internal
Technological potential
Economic, social, ecological etc. opportunities
VALIDATION
Research & funding deficits
Impediments
Pilot
projects
Recommendations
“Technology
Analysis”
IMPLEMENTATION and
INFORMATION TRANSFER
Publications
Workshops
Statements
Figure 2: Stages in technological forecasting
The following section describes the three phases identification, validation and implementation for the above mentioned TF processes. A detailed description of the methods applied
can be found in the respective technology analyses, since the focus, scope and criteria in the
studies varied:
The identification of interesting topics was done by means of systematic screening and surveying of all available information sources. For the purpose of nanotechnology studies, litera-
8
ture databases (CA, INSPEC, in later studies Science Citation Index SCI) were screened
with respect to specific keywords agreed upon with the client. Expert surveys were carried
out through questionnaires, standardized telephone interviews or personal interviews during
meetings and congresses, with emphasis placed on estimates of future applications for the
respective technology. Expert workshops were specifically organized to define the upcoming
technology field of nanotechnology (Bachmann [11]). Experts came from industry, academic
research and institutional research.
Technology Assessment Grid
Carbon Nan o Tu bes
VDI TECHNOLOGY CENTER
Future Technologies Division
D vs. South-East Asia
Technology
Science
Economy
Ecology
Social affairs
Politics
Legal system
Scientists
Politicians
Management (large comp.)
SME
Legislators
Population
Acceptance o. technology
Stage of R&D
Market potential (present)
Market pot. > 5 years
Return on investment
3
3
2
6
5
1
1
3
1
2
2
2
2
Î Î Î Ï
5
5
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3
3
6
5
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1
4
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2
3
Ð Ð Î Ï
6
6
4
3
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1
4
4
3
4
4
4
5
2
2
3
3
3
2
3
4
4
4
3
2
l
v
l
l
l
l
l
l
5
2
3
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5
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1
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Ð Ð Î Ï
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3
D vs. Europe
D vs. Japan
2
4
D vs. USA
Infrastructure
5
l
Intern. division o. labour
l
l
Education and training
l
l
Patents/ licencing
m
l
Health-related
m
l
Financial
m
v
Political
Environment
v
v
Ethical
Energy
v
v
Technological
Transportation
v
3
Materials research
Housing
1
5
Optics
Food
2
3
Mechanical engineering
Health
5
4
Information technology
Work & Soc. Affairs
5
3
Biology
Communication
5
2
Chemistry
Environment
1
1
Work & Soc. Affairs
Energy
1
2
Communication
Transportation
Che m ica l
e ngine e ring
Ma rke t
re le va nce
Housing
Ma te ria ls
Inform a tion de ficit
a m ong
Food
Hydroge n
stora ge
Ele ctronics
Im pe dim e nts in Ge rm a ny
Ex pe cte d e ffe cts of
te chnology on
2
T ime h o riz o n :
s: short- term
m: medium- term
l: long- term
v: visionary
In te rn . p o sitio n :
Ï leading
Î equal
Ð c atc h- up poss.
| way behind
Com pe titive
position D
Health
Imp o rt a n c e
1: low - 6: high
De gre e of re la tion
Contribution (im porta nce ) Contribution (tim e horizon)
w ith
D = Germany
Warning: Th e table can on ly be used adequately in association w ith the explanations in the text!
© VDI-Technologiezentrum
Figure 3: The Assessment Grid employed in the "Technology Analysis" on the technology
subfield nanotubes. (from: Hoffschulz et al. [18]).
Validation of the technologies was supplied by condensing, filtering and ameliorating the
gathered information into an aggregated form. This process was based on a set of criteria
developed in close coordination with the client of the assessment. Examples for criteria are
the novelty of a research theme, the state-of-the art of the technology envisioned (e.g. the
BMBF focuses its funding activities on technologies at the interface between basic and applied research), the international competitiveness of the German research landscape, the
economic potential and the possible contribution of the new technology to solve existing
problems. Figure 3 offers an overview on the criteria applied in the TF studies. This assessment grid contains first aspects of the sustainability potential of the technology in question:
9
The potential contribution to the field “environment” is one of the application fields mentioned
in part 1 and 2 of the grid. Under the column “Expected effects of technology on…” the classic three pillars of sustainability – ecology, economy and society – appear as assessment
criteria. The validation was carried out with the help of experts from academic circles, industry and government agencies. For this purpose, written questionnaires, telephone interviews
and personal interviews were carried out. The number of experts involved in these studies
ranged from 12 (Mengel [18]) to 40 (Eickenbusch et al. [13]). In addition, patent and publication statistics were used as indicators for the development of a technology in certain time
intervals and for international benchmarking with the USA, other EU countries and Japan.
The implementation step comprised a set of conclusions and recommendations for the client,
which in case of the BMBF led to new funding activities (Fig. 1). For example, the result of
the first technology analysis (Bachmann [11]) was a funding concept followed by the foundation of several competency centres in order to bridge the gap between science and industry
from the very beginning of R&D activities.
At this stage, sustainability aspects and considerations did not play a central role in the process, yet. The main goal of (Bachmann [11]) was to define the research field in general. Possible fields of application could still not be clearly determined. Nanotechnology research and
funding activities in the early nineties were mostly pushed by curiosity-driven research and
just a few industrial applications (e.g. ultra precision manufacturing, nanomaterials, functional
supramolecular systems, nano tools, biotechnology and ICT). Given the little information and
few data available at the time when forecasting activities are usually carried out (the aim is to
identify research gaps!) and due to the fact that potential fields of application are not necessarily clear at this stage, more ambitious aims like a quantitative assessment of sustainability
effects cannot be regarded as realistic options at this stage.
This weak relation to sustainability in the basic studies is also reflected in the calls issued by
the BMBF in the early years of nanotechnology funding. For example, the calls on functional
supramolecular sytems (BMBF [19], [20]) mention the development of environmental-friendly
10
processes and systems, albeit very generally in the section describing the thematic focus of
the calls. The 1997 call on innovative products (BMBF [21]) based on new technologies and
processes mentions environmental aspects and resource management as specifically meriting research areas. However, there is neither a reference to the concept of sustainability nor
a hint that these aspects are binding for the project proponents.
Phase 2: Market Assessment and Applications
The second phase was closely connected to the first phase of forecasting and included a
thorough and systematic analysis of possible markets and applications for nanotechnology.
Three market surveys (Bachmann [11], Bachmann [12], Luther et al. [22]) were carried out in
1994, 1998 and 2002. They applied a broad methodological setting, combining qualitative
and quantitative methods such as desk research of existing market studies, patent analyses,
and interviews with scientists, technology suppliers and prospective key users of nanotechnology with a scanning of databases.
To avoid overestimations, market figures were obtained adding up the market value of specific products containing nanotechnological components. For products that have not yet
reached market maturity yet, there were indicators pointing to the substitution potential of
existing products. If the value-added proportion of the nanotechnological component in the
end product was not quantifiable, the value of the “smallest saleable unit” containing the
nanotechnological function was assumed. However, overestimates may still occur, e.g. in the
case of double counts of the nanotechnological product itself (e.g. nanocrystalline material)
and the end product (e.g. suncream).
In the first market analysis (Bachmann [11]) the market potential was mostly characterized by
ultrathin layers (market potential: 6.7 bn Euro), ultraprecision technology (3.8 bn Euro) and
0D-3D structures (Bachmann [11]). A specific relevance for the different economy sectors
could not yet be given at that time. The numbers were gained by 67 standardized expert interviews conducted with both suppliers and (potential) users of nanotechnological products.
11
The second market analysis (Bachmann [12]) already distinguished a more differentiated
picture for five sectors of the economy (medicine/biology, optics/optomechanics/analytics,
chemistry/material science, electronics/information technology, automobile/engineering) and
for five nanotechnology subfields (ultrathin structures, lateral structures, nanomaterials/molecular architecture, ultraprecision processing). Market figures were obtained for each
subfield by scanning literature sources for single product groups and applications for 1996
(the year in which the study was carried out) and 2001. If market figures for 2001 were unavailable, they were extrapolated from the 1996 figures with an assumed annual growth rate
of 15%. If no numbers were available for 1996 (e.g. for corrosion inhibitors), no market figures were given, so that the market figures obtained for the nanotechnology market in 1996
(27 bn Euro) and 2001 (52 bn Euro) can rather be seen as low estimates of the real potential.
Indirect effects (e.g. energy savings or increased efficiencies in the manufacturing process)
are not included in these figures.
For the third market analysis, Luther et al. [22] combined literature reviews, expert interviews,
written questionnaires into German nanotechnology companies, patent analyzes and expert
workshops.
The main focus was on the economic potential in some of the most important lead markets in
Germany (chemistry, optics, automobile industry, medicine and life sciences, electronics) for
the different subfields nanomaterials, nanoelectronics, nanooptics, nanobiotechnology and
nanotools. The total market estimate was summed up to 120 bn Euro for 2004. For a comparison of this figure with other estimates of the current and future potential, see Luther et al.
[22].
What information on the sustainability potential of nanotechnology can be inferred from these
market surveys? First, the market analyses have helped in that they facilitated the identification of relevant application fields for nanotechnology: Once it becomes clear that e.g.
nanolayers with certain properties (self-cleaning, anti-fouling …) can be applied for the production of coatings and paints, the sustainability potential of these materials and for these
12
applications can be estimated. This is also reflected in the BMBF calls on nanotechnology
that were published after 1999: The calls on “nanotechnology” (BMBF [23]), nanostructured
materials (BMBF [24]) in selected key technology fields and on mangnetoelectronics (BMBF
[25]) do not only mention ecological aspects. “Relevance for society (ecological aspects,
workplace security)” or “ecological and employment impacts of the proposed project” are
even introduced as one selection criterion for proposal evaluation.
Secondly, the relative importance of market potentials in each sector can also be taken as a
first hint showing in which technology field large sustainability effects can be expected –
large markets with a huge variety of products and applications will tend to be more relevant
for sustainability issues than small markets with few products. The Identification of application fields for nano-innovations is therefore an important step for identifying areas of high
sustainability relevance.
Taking these considerations and limitations into account, a broad range of potential applications for nanotechnology which can contribute to sustainability in key sustainability issues
such as mobility, building, energy and pollution were identified. Figure 4 gives an overview
on nanotechnology applications in important sustainability fields ranging from short-term,
already available products to long-term applications that still need further R&D.
Some of these applications appear to be especially promising in their potential to contribute
to sustainability, e.g.:
ƒ
Applications in energy conversion, storage and saving (European Nanoforum Gateway [26], Sutter and Loeffler [27])
ƒ
Indirect energy savings through surfaces reflecting thermal radiation or new insulation
materials in buildings (e.g. Reim et al. [28], Schädler [29])
ƒ
Indirect material savings due to self-cleaning or anti-microbial effects (Morones et al.
[30], Frazer [31])
13
ƒ
More efficient and selective chemical reactions due to nano-catalysts (Schlögl and
Abd Hamid [32])
ƒ
New sensors and analytical devices that permit a closer monitoring of pollutants (Environmental Protection Agency [33], Takahashi et al. [34])
ƒ
Replacement of toxic substances by less noxious nanomaterials, e.g. replacement of
chromate coatings by sol-gel surface treatment (Steinfeldt et al. [35], ETAG [36])
ƒ
Remediation of contaminated sites (Tratnyek and Johnson [37]), Yavuz et al. [38]).
Short, Mid and Long Term Applications of Nanotechnology Contributing to Sustainability
Construction
Construction
Switchable Glazings
electrochromic, photochromic
OLED ligthing
Automobile
Automobile
Adaptive car body
shell for optimized
aerodynamics
Optimized
fuel cells
Environmental
Environmental
Nanosensor networks for
environmental monitoring
Solar Power Satellites
Artificial photosynthesis
Self organization processes
for manufacturing
Long Term
Exhaust
catalysts
Optimized batteries
for hybrid cars
Nanocoatings for
diesel injectors
Particle
filters
Air filters
Gas sensors
Remediation of solid
Biochemical
wastes by nanomaterials
sensors
Nanomembranes
for
(absorbers, converters) Photocatalytic air and
water treatment
water treatment
Nanomaterials for
hydrogen storage
Dye solar Cells
Thermoelectrics
Quantum dot solar cells
Engineering
Engineering
Low roll resistant
car tyres
Nanoparticles as
fuel additives
Nano-composites for
lightweight car bodies
Thin film solar cells
on car roofs for air
conditioning
Energy
Energy
Thermal Insulation (aerogels)
Optimized SOFC
Self Cleaning Facades
for heating
(Lotus-Effect, Photocatalysis)
Antibacterial surfaces
Nanobinders for renewable
Environmental benign
Antireflective Facades
construction materials
fire protection
Polymer solar cells
Antireflective coatings
for solar cells
Hard Coatings for
abrasion protection
Lubricant free bearings
Nano adhesives for
improved recycling
Mid Term
Nanocatalysis for
more efficient processes
Corrosion protection
Short Term
Present
Figure 4: Nanotechnology applications with potential contributions to sustainability. Some of
these applications are already available; others will only become relevant in the long term.
14
Some applications, e.g. nanotubes for hydrogen storage, have been questioned since storage capacities necessary for automobile applications could not be validated (Hirscher and
Becher [39]). For other applications, e.g. dye solar cells, the long-term stability of the dyes
and the electric efficiencies remain challenges (Hinsch [40]).
Phase 3: Innovation and Technology Analysis
From today’s state of knowledge, it is clear that, beside these beneficial effects nanotechnology also bears some hazards and uncertainties that have to be investigated and minimized.
Examples for such hazards are:
ƒ
The distribution of nanomaterials in the environment (e.g. ecotoxicological effects on
aquatic organisms)
ƒ
Potential hazards of nanoparticles to human health, especially through inhalable ultrafine particles
ƒ
Potential hazards of nanoproducts at the end of the life cycle (recycling and disposal)
ƒ
Environmental and health effects in connection with the production process of nanoproducts (e.g. increased energy need or noxious by-products).
The adequate instrument to deal with such questions connected with a new technology is
technology assessment (TA) or innovation and technology analysis (ITA). TA has been
widely applied for more than 30 years (Steinmüller et al. [41], Büllingen [42]) in order to assess the possible effects of technologies on society, economy and the environment. In recent
years, TA has been critizised for being focused too much on the risks of new technologies
while neglecting their potentials and chances and for being carried out without an adequate
involvement of industry (Weber et al. [43]). Thus, the BMBF has changed its TA strategy towards a new concept “Innovation and Technology Analysis (ITA)” (BMBF [44]), which investigates and weighs the positive and negative effects of new technologies with the aim of using the opportunities they offer while minimizing the hazards. This concept uses a broad
range of qualitative and quantitative methods to foresee potential risks and technologies in
15
the development process of a new technology as early as possible. The difficulty in ITA is
finding the optimal moment of time for the analysis. The earlier an ITA is carried out, the better are the chances that the ITA results can still have an influence on technological and R&D
development. A reactive ITA that only begins after completion of the R&D activities and at a
time when the technology is already broadly applied has only limited effect and is carried out
with a huge effort (Collingridge [45]). On the other hand, an early start of ITA bears the risk
that insufficient data and information are available for a profound analysis. The best starting
point for an ITA is probably the moment when the different application fields of a new technology have become clear. For example, carbon nanotubes have a broad spectrum of potential application fields that reaches from nanoelectronics to polymer-composites to products in
medicine technology. Due to their small size which allows the nanotubes to penetrate deeply
into the lung tissue and their asbestos-like geometry, toxicologists assume that they are potentially toxic for humans, and further research is needed to clarify this question. However,
the toxicity of nanotubes depends largely on the way they are used: If they are incorporated
as electron field emitters into displays etc., their potential for harmful effects is much reduced
compared to applications where nanotubes are handled in large quantities and the risk of
workplace exposure during the production process occurs (e.g. the use of nanotubes as fillers for polymers). It is quite clear that an ITA study on nanotubes in general would yield only
limited insights while a study that takes these application fields into account can furnish valuable recommendations e.g. for measures to be taken at the workplace or having detailed
studies concentrated on critical application fields.
The BMBF has managed to launch a study on ITA of nanotechnology (Malanowski [46]) very
early in the development of R&D activities. This was possible because the close interplay of
technological forecasting and ITA had provided the Ministry with the relevant information derived from the TF activities at a very early stage (Zweck [47]). The ITA study could be started
once the potential application fields of nanotechnology had been identified. The study was
focused on the dimensions technology, economy, ecology, health, politics as well as the indi-
16
vidual and social sphere. Experts from these domains were interviewed in order to sound out
the consequences of nanotechnology applications in these fields. The ITA study resulted in
recommendations for open questions to be dealt with, which were implemented by the BMBF
in more detailed studies. These ITA studies focused on the aspects health (applications of
nanotechnology in medicine, Farkas et al. [48]), environment (elements of LCA analysis, first
attempt towards quantification of environmental effects, Steinfeldt et al. [49]) and economy
(market assessment, Luther et al. [22]), thus reflecting important aspects of sustainability.
Simultaneously with the publication of Malanowski [46], the BMBF entered into a third phase
(since 2002) of introducing sustainability aspects into its calls by extending the concept of
sustainability aspects beyond ecology towards technology assessment and sustainable development, e.g. in the initiatives NanoLux, NanoMobil and NanoChance. Proponents were
now requested to provide an assessment of risks and potentials for all three pillars of sustainability (ecology, economy and society) along with their project proposal. The compliance
with this criterion was part of the evaluation process. In a paper stating ist new strategic orientation, the BMBF sees the assessment of risks and potentials as an important pillar for
future activities (BMBF [50])
Phase 4: Communication
In Germany, but also in other countries, the public discussion (indicated by media coverage)
of nanotechnology stepped up around the year 2000. Our own analyses of newspaper articles (Figure 5) show that sustainability aspects do play a role in the media coverage of the
technology, albeit their importance (with 5% of all articles) is small compared to other themes
on the subject like funding policy, business or research. Articles discussing environmental
chances and sustainability aspects of nanotechnology are nearly as frequent as articles on
potential risks.
Despite increasing media coverage of nanotechnology in the popular press, the public is not
very well informed about nanotechnology, although the situation has improved in recent
years. A 2005 study on the public perception of nanotechnology (Grobe et al. [51]) showed
17
that in the early years of the 21st century the public still felt that they do not have sufficient
information on nanotechnology. Although there is little knowledge about nanotechnology,
more people expect higher benefits than risks of nanotechnology. But this perception might
change if negative headlines about health risks of “nano” labelled products continue to occur,
as we recently noticed in Germany in the case of the “magic nano” spray which had to be
withdrawn from the market due to health damages caused to customers. Although it could be
demonstrated that these negative health impacts were not caused by the use of nanoparticles, this kind of media coverage could impair the public acceptance of nanotechnogical developments.
Nanotechnology related articles in German newspapers in 2005
4%
5%
21%
38%
32%
funding policy
business
research
risks
sustainability
Figure 5: Share of nanotechnology related articles dedicated to special topics in larger newspapers in Germany in 2005 as a percentage of all articles on nanotechnology (n=273)
Thus, the BMBF decided to initiate a series of information and communication measures in
order to provide the public with a balanced information base on both the risks and potentials
of the new technology. One prominent example is the “nanotruck”, a mobile exhibition area of
60 m2 which was launched in 2004 and provides information on nanotechnology for the general public. The campaign was designed to provide information on the current state of research and development potential in nanotechnology. It also aims at promoting the dialogue
18
between the world of science and the general public. Target groups for the campaign are
research institutes, companies, schools and the whole sector of education and training.
At the same time, the BMBF has entered a new phase of activities. In addition to funding of
research projects and competency centres, it has broadened its activities towards dissemination and innovation accompanying measures. These include (BMBF [52]): SME funding
(NanoChance), dialogues with industry sectors and the general public, especially on risks
and potentials, calls directed at young scientists (NanoFutur), supporting networks of women
scientists (nano-4-women) and entrepreneurs. Actor-orientation has been claimed as an important aspect of research and technology policies for sustainable development (Katz et al.
[53]).
3. Discussion
The contribution of nanotechnology research to sustainability
For a closer examination of the relation between the nanotechnology funding activities of the
BMBF and sustainability, it is necessary to define what exactly is meant by „sustainability“
and what the criteria for this assessment could be. Since these activities are based in a Federal ministery, they can be regarded as a contribution to the national policy and should as
such be congruent with national strategies aimed at sustainable development. Such a strategy exists in Germany: In 2001, the German government launched a national sustainability
strategy which defines four guiding principles (generational equity, quality of life, social cohesion, and international responsibility), six areas of activity and 21 indicators for monitoring
progress in these areas. An overview on the criteria of the national sustainability strategy and
how the BMBF funding activities relate to them is given in table 2.
The overview shows that nanotechnology funding activities address 11 out of the 21 criteria
of the national sustainability strategy in three of the four guiding principles. Besides contributions in ecological indicators such as resource productivity and energy efficiency, social and
economic indicators like employment and gender issues are also adressed by the programmes.
19
An analysis of the nanotechnology-related calls of the BMBF between 1995 and 2006 shows
that sustainability issues have mainly been introduced as an ex-ante selection criterion for
project proposal evaluation (see chapter 2 for details).
The national sustainability strategy and BMBF funding policy
Goals of the national sustainability strategy
Contribution of BMBF-funded nanotechnology activities
I. Generational equity
1
Increase of resource and energy efficiency
According to BMBF [53c], the typical property of nanotechnology is providing
functionality with a minimum use of material. Thus it can be considered as
principally resource- and energy saving. NanoLux and NanoMobil contribute to
this goal.
2
Protection of the climate; reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
NanoLux and NanoMobil address applications that enable a reduced use of
energy for lightning or mobility
3
Increase of renewable energy sources in
energy production
Surface technologies with nanocomponents enable the development of new
types of solar cells. However, in Germany, research for renewable energies
currently does not lie within the competency of the BMBF.
4
Reduction of land use
-
5
Halt of biodiversity loss
-
6
Consolidation of the national budget
Not applicable
7
Increase of innovation dynamics
Yes, since nanotechnology is generally accepted as one of the most important
strategic innovation fields for the international competitivity of the national
economy
8
Increase of F&E expenditures
Expenditures for nanotechnology funding by the BMBF have increased from
27,6 to 112,1 Mio Euros between 1998 and 2003 (BMBF [53c]).
9
Increase of number of highly-qualified degrees in education
-
II. Quality of life
10
Wealth: increase of gross domestic product
per inhabitant
Not applicable
11
Mobility: decrease of transport intensity
-
12
Nutrition: increase of the share of organic
farming
-
13
Air quality: decrease of pollutantsr
New sensors and membranes can improve supervision of pollutants. The
development of
14
Satisfaction with health
The initiative NanoforLife addresses health issues, e.g. tissue engineering,
medicine technology
15
Decrease of criminality
-
III Social cohesion
16
Increase of employment rate
Nanotechnology has and will have beneficial effects on employment. Luther et
al. [14] estimate that currently between 20.000 and 114.000 jobs in Germany
are in the field of nanotechnology
17
Improvement of childcare opportunities
-
18
Equality (gender)
The nanotechnology initiative nano-4-women aims at increasing the number of
women in this emerging technology field.
19
Integration of foreign citizens
-
IV International responsibility
20
Increase of official development aid
Not applicable
21
Open markets towards developing countries
Not applicable
Table 2: Goals of the German sustainability strategy [2a] and nanotechnology funding activities of the BMBF that address them.
20
Effects of the integrated approach
The integrated approach followed by the BMBF resulted in a very quick switch from a mere
technology push to a market pull strategy, since a high level of involvement of companies
(mainly SMEs but also larger companies) in the research programmes was achieved. The
focus switched from curiosity-driven research to applied research, and this development was
supported by the market assessments and patent analyses carried out in the accompanying
measures of the development of research programmes and funding activities. The early orientation towards industry interests had two (maybe adverse) effects on the role of sustainability in the development of nanotechnology:
On the one hand, the strong focus on industry interests and marketable solutions fostered a
concentration on potential future lead markets like the automobile sector, the chemical industry or ICT technologies. This did not preclude sustainable solutions, but the main focus and
the main criterion for project and funding decisions was the perspective of opening up new
emerging markets as opposed to pointing to sustainability effects produced by these technology fields. The concentration on lead innovations and lead markets has certainly neglected other fields where nanotechnology could contribute to sustainability, e.g. soil remediation, water purification or pollution control.
On the other hand, the market assessments and patent analyses served to define the application fields for the new technology at a very early stage during the process. This in turn
paved the road for an early launch of the innovation and technology analysis. The insights
gained from the technology forecasting process and the market analyses could be used directly and without time delays for a substantiated first ITA study. Thus, the relevant fields for
further ITA questions (like toxicity of nanoparticles, behaviour in the environment) could be
identified and decisions on rewarding issues for first quantitative life-cycle assessments of
nanotechnology products could be made.
The identification of relevant issues for ITA also helped to design the communication and
education process at a time when the debate was still open and fixed pro- and contra-groups
21
had not yet formed within society. From the very beginning, critical issues such as health,
toxicity and environmental effects were integrated into the communication measures such as
the NanoTruck and built a knowledge base for the discussion on the acceptance of the new
technology.
The integrated approach pursued in the accompanying measures related to nanotechnology
has been referred to as Integrated Innovation and Technology Management (ITIM, Zweck
[54]). ITIM is characterized by a moderated and coordinated connection of technologyaccompanying measures and activities. Its aim is to increase the effects of the single measures such as TF and ITA, and to optimize synergies between the measures and phases. For
the decision-maker, this approach offers the advantage that information about the status quo
of technology development is available as highly up-to-date knowledge any time in the process.
The basis for this is a permanent monitoring of the technology field of nanotechnology. It is
especially relevant in this context that the potential for shaping the field of technology development is considerably influenced by one’s own competitive position. Only those who work in
the forefront of technology development have the potential to develop manufacturing methods, product quality standards, diffusion channels and ecological requirements through market trends, safety standards, norms etc.
4. Lessons Learned – Recommendations
The description of the integrated approach in the development of nanotechnology research in
Germany has shown how a link between sustainability questions and technology development evolved over time and how it was supported by various technology accompanying
measures. Certainly, the potential of nanotechnology to contribute to sustainability has not
been fully exploited by these activities. It remains interesting to ask how this potential could
be fully exploited and used as early as possible. The activities described above – integrating
sustainability issues in technology development as early as possible – can be seen as complementary and supportive to approaches that focus more on the sustainability challenges
22
(e.g. climate change, water purification) and then derive the activities and technology developments necessary to achieve progress in these fields.
One important step in this direction can be joint research initiatives and networking activities
that require the interdisciplinary cooperation of sustainability-oriented and technologyoriented scientists in common research projects. Similarly to the timing of ITA, these programmes must be timed in a way that the technology in focus is already at a stage of maturity when application fields emerge, but when product and process developments are still underway. As a basis for such programmes, the authors recommend to step into a new round
of forecasting by analyzing nanotechnology from a sustainability perspective.
Another approach could be technology research programmes that are explicitly launched
with the aim to contribute to sustainability. One example is a recent initiative by the German
Ministry of Education and Research. Under the Framework Programme “Research for Sustainability”, the BMBF has launched the call “Innovation as a Key for Sustainability in the
Economy” (BMBF [55]). This initiative is looking for broadly applicable innovations across all
sectors of the economy, and many of the projects that are being funded include nanotechnology (e.g. surface technology, nanofiltration). In these projects, sustainability aspects are
either integrated through accompanying LCAs or other innovative sustainability assessment
tools, or become part of the central research question of the research cluster (e.g. “increased
energy efficiency through …”).
The main challenge in this context remains how to merge the different research cultures of
innovation/technology and sustainability research that have been described in the introduction to this article.
23
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