Lithuanian Transition: Theory and Practice

Lithuanian Transition: Theory
and Practice
Raimonda Miglinaite, IIRPS VU, 2014
Transition studies
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Replacing Sovietology
Focus on countries undergoing regime change
Accounting for differences
Normative implications
When does transition begin?
When does it end?
Accounting for transformation means
considering:
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Orientation of transformation
Method of transformation
Path of transformation
Result of transformation
(Norkus, 2008)
Orientation
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Continuative
Innovative
Restitutional
Imitational
(Šalkauskas, 2000)
Method
• Reform or revolution?
• Defines economic and political change
• Cases of “refolution”
(Norkus, 2008).
Path
• Assessed retrospectively
• “Crossing a mountain range without a map”
• Accounting for difference in the initial
conditions
(Norkus, 2008)
Result
• Different path may lead to similar results
• Paths can determine results
(Norkus, 2008)
Lithuania
• Restitutional and
imitational orientation
• “Coming back to
Europe”
• “Great leap”
(revolutionist
approach to economic
transformation)
• Democratizationmarketization dilemma
Democratization-Marketization
dilemma
• All encompassing economic reforms cannot be
democratically endorsed, but without it they
are meaningless.
• “Great leap” as a solution
• Difference between Latin American and
Eastern European societies
• “Time of extra-ordinary politics” (L.
Balcerowicz).
Singing revolution
• Creation of alternative
society
• October 1988 De Jure
establishment of “Sąjūdis”
• August 1989 “The Baltic
Way”
• December 1989 Lithuanian
Communist Party (LCP)
separates itself from Soviet
Union communist party
• February 1990 LCP looses
election to “Sąjūdis”
• March 1990 Independence
is restored
Path and result: Differences between
the Baltic States
• Quality of Lithuanian
democracy
• Estonia the only Baltic
country whose GDP in
2004 surpassed that of
1989
• Nature of economic
reforms: more sudden or
more incremental
Differences Between Baltic States:
Baltic Lombardy and Sicily
• Political cleavages
• Fate of communist
parties
• Cultural
explanations
(Norkus, 2006)
When does transition end?
• Quality of post-communist democracy
• Is Eastern Europe still relevant?
The Charlemagne Prize
• The “Oscar” of politics
• Previous recipients:
Robert Schuman,
Jean Monnet, Konrad
Adenauer, Bill Clinton,
Vaclav Havel, Angela
Merkel.
• D. Grybauskaite
awarded for her input
into the EU integration
Financial Crisis in Lithuania: Change in
the GDP (%)
Sources: Lithuanian Statistics Department, SEB bank.
Financial crisis in Lithuania: Average level of
unemployment, %
Source: SEB bank, Lithuanian macroeconomic review , March 2012.
Aftermath:
Unemployment:
• 2010: 17,8%
• 2011: 15,4%
• 2012: 14 %
• 2013: (expected) 12%
Growth of the GDP:
• 2011: 5,9 %
• 2012: 3,7 %
• 2013: (expected) 3%
Growth of the FDI:
• 2012: 8,1%
Emigration:
• Around 615 thousand emigrants
since 1990
• 83 thousand emigrants in 2010
• 17 thousand emigrants
returned in 2012.
Emigracija
Data of the European Migration Network
Optimism in Lithuania:
• Among top 40 countries
in the World for the
quality of life (2012)
• Vilnius - 10th place in
the World in Smart City
rankings
• 1,7 million tourists
Optimism in Lithuania
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Foreign Investors: Barclays,
Western Union, SEB, Paroc,
Moog, Mars, etc.
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IT: 1st in the EU for Internet
download and upload speed.
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IT: 1st in the World
Competitiveness Rankings for
Communication technology
IT: 5th in the World for protection
of Intellectual property rights
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Source: Invest in Lithuania
Ačiū!
Sources:
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Norkus, Zenonas (2008), Kokia demokratija, koks kapitalizmas? Vilnius: Vilniaus
Universiteto leidykla.
Norkus, Zenonas (2006), „Apie Baltijos Siciliją ir Lombardiją“, Politologija, Vol.41, No.1,
(71-119).
Ramonaitė, Ainė, Kavaliauskaitė Jūratė, et.al. (2011), Sąjūdžio ištakų beieškant.
Nepaklusniųjų tinklaveikos galia. Vilnius: Baltos lankos.
Huntington, Samuel P (1991), The Third Wave. Democratisation in Late 20th Century.
Norman and London: University of Oklahoma Press.
Lithuanian Department of Statistics (http://www.stat.gov.lt/web/lsd/home)
SEB Bank (https://www.seb.lt/eng)
European Migration Network (http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-wedo/networks/european_migration_network/index_en.htm)
Invest in Lithuania (http://www.investlithuania.com/)
Visualizations:
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http://www.joniskelis.lt/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Lietuvos-veliava.jpg
http://www.vu.lt/site_images/MoS/KNYGOS/kokia_demokr_koks_kapital.jpg
http://faithoutreach.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/which-direction-do-i-turn.jpg
http://dubemmenakaya.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/revolution_small.jpg
http://www.traveltouragency.com/website%20images/trekking-tours-10225.jpg
http://remodelingclay.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/finishline.jpg
http://www.crowncup.lt/uploads/5/9/2/0/5920114/8996572_orig.jpg
http://www.itl.rtu.lv/LVA/Praga68/jpg/4-b-1.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Baltic_states_flag_map.svg
http://selija.blogas.lt/files/2011/07/1_baltijos_kelias_px600.jpg
http://www.euro.lt/img/Stojimo%20i%20ES%20svente_3.JPG
http://gs.delfi.lt/images/pix/daliai-grybauskaitei-iteiktas-tarptautinis-karolio-didziojoapdovanojimas-61348373.jpg
http://www.inreal.lt/media/projects/VVU_bendros_2.JPG
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/11/18/business/global/18iht-srscCITIES18-inline3.html
http://www.investlithuania.com/en