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A F F I L I AT E S
SPONSORS
CONFERENCE
REPORT
CO N F E R E N C E S
Business Preparedness for Pandemic
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Table of Contents
Summary Session Title
Speaker
Key Conference Themes
Eric McNulty
Monday, May 14
Get Grounded
1
Potential Economic Impact of Pandemic
2
Pandemic on the Horizon:
The Public Health Realities
Page
5
Managing Director, Conferences
Harvard Business School Publishing
Sherry Cooper, PhD
7
Anthony L. Komaroff, MD (moderator)
9
Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist,
BMO Capital Markets
Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School;
Editor-in-Chief, Harvard Health Publications
Aaron Desmond
Director, Licensing and New Business Development,
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
Wendy Everett, ScD
President, New England Healthcare Institute
Carter Mecher, MD
Director of Medical Preparedness Policy,
White House Homeland Security Council
David S. Rosenthal, MD
Director, Harvard University Health Services
3
Critical Response:
Beyond Functional Expertise
11
Eddie Erlandson, PhD
Senior Vice President, Work Ethic Corporation;
Co-Author, The Alpha Male Syndrome
Frances Johnston, PhD
Co-Chair and Managing Director,
Teleos Leadership Institute
4
CEO Perspective
5
Executive Preparedness:
Best Practices Briefing
George B. Abercrombie
13
Paul Hemp (moderator)
15
Chief Executive Officer, Roche North America
Senior Editor, Harvard Business Review
Steven D. Gravely
Practice Group Leader, Health Care Practice;
Troutman Sanders LLP
Scott Rosenstein
Health Analyst, Eurasia Group
Jeff Seglin
Associate Professor, Emerson College;
Syndicated Ethics Columnist, New York Times Syndicate
Richard H. Wilkins, DO, MPH, FAOCOPM
General Manager, Health and Medical Services,
Chevron Corporation
©2007 Harvard Business
School Publishing
Page 1
Produced for HBSP by:
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Summary Tuesday, May 15
6
Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Get Engaged
Page
John M. Barry
17
Author, The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the
Deadliest Plague in History
Daniel A. Sharp (moderator)
Worldwide Principal, Business Resilience Unisys
Corporation; Founding CEO/President,
Royal Institution World Science Assembly (RiSci)
7
Medical Realities: What To Expect
19
Jonathan L. Burstein, MD
Assistant Professor of Medicine,
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
Robert M. Honigberg, MD
Chief Medical Officer, GE Healthcare
Doug Quarry, MD
Medical Director, International SOS Online
Richard D. Zane, MD
Vice Chairman, Department of Emergency Medicine,
Brigham and Women’s Hospital;
Faculty, Harvard Medical School
8
A New Perspective on Risk
Michael Evangelides
21
Principal, Deloitte Consulting
Karen DeToro
Manager, Actuarial & Insurance Solutions Practice,
Deloitte Consulting
9
The Stricken Workforce:
Keeping the Business Running
Melinda Merino (moderator)
23
Senior Editor, Harvard Business School Press
Debra Cohen, PhD
SPHR, Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM)
Don Davis
Senior Vice President, Visa Corporate Services, Visa
Karen Dye, CBCP
Global Business Continuity Manager, Sun Microsystems
Randy R. Smith
Head, Critical Infrastructure Assurance Branch,
U.S. Marine Corps
10
Business Continuity and Communication
11
Team Exercise Preparation:
Meta-Leadership
Chuck Adams
25
Barry Dorn, MD
27
Global Consulting Practice Leader, Business Resiliency,
Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco
Associate Director, National Preparedness Leadership
Initiative, Harvard School of Public Health
Leonard Marcus, PhD
Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative,
Harvard School of Public Health
School Publishing
Page 2
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Summary Wednesday, May 16
12
Team Reporting: Conclusions from the
Scenario Exercise
13
Predictable Surprises:
Blind Spots in Pandemic Planning
14
The Fractured Supply Chain:
Assessing Vulnerabilities
Get Ready for Action
Page
Barry Dorn, MD
29
Leonard Marcus, PhD
Max H. Bazerman
31
Julia Kirby (moderator)
33
Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration,
Harvard Business School
Andrew Beahm
Assistant Treasurer, L.L. Bean
Edward J. Gabriel
Global Director, Crisis Management,
The Walt Disney Company
Jack McKlveen
Corporate Crisis Manager, UPS
Dr. Yossi Sheffi
Professor of Engineering Systems
Director, Center for Transportation and Logistics, MIT;
Author, The Resilient Enterprise
15
Reputation and Communication:
Connecting Your Stakeholder Community
David E. Bell, PhD (moderator)
George M. Moffett Professor of Agriculture and Business,
35
Leslie Gaines-Ross
Chief Reputation Officer, Weber-Shandwick
Thomas Hawkins, MD
Medical Director, Health Informatics,
Blue Cross Blue Shield Massachusetts
Jay McQuaide
Director of Internal Communications,
Biographies
37
Massachusetts Pandemic Event Timeline
46
THESE SUMMARIES REFLECT BULLSEYE RESOURCES, INC.’S SUBJECTIVE CONDENSED SUMMARIZATION OF THE APPLICABLE SESSIONS FROM BUSINESS PREPAREDNESS FOR
PANDEMIC. THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE SESSIONS. IN NO WAY DOES HARVARD
BUSINESS SCHOOL PUBLISHING OR BULLSEYE RESOURCES, INC. ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, OR ANY DECISIONS MADE
BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS DOCUMENT.
School Publishing
Page 3
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Key Conference Themes
Moderator: Eric McNulty, Managing Director, Conferences, Harvard Business School Publishing
Context

More than 200 corporate and government leaders came together
at Harvard Medical School in Boston from May 14-16 to learn about
the most effective practices in preparing for a pandemic. Learning
took place through keynote speakers, panel discussions, an interactive exercise, and highly participatory conversations. This report
captures the key takeaways from each session, with the key
themes from the entire conference summarized below.
Hoping that a pandemic doesn’t occur, occurs elsewhere, or isn’t
severe is not a good strategy. The human and economic risks of
a pandemic demand preparation. Virtually every session dealt in
some way with the theme of effective preparation. Among the
key takeaways related to preparation were:
` Achieving preparation requires a plan. (But having a plan does
Overview
Scientific experts concur that a future pandemic is inevitable. Economic experts concur that it will result in massive disruption. Informed government and business leaders concur that preparation is
the key to mitigating the risks and disruption, and recovering after
the pandemic.
Speakers and participants agreed that preparation—which is a
never-ending process of plan and test—must take place now. It
must link the public and private sectors, must involve the creation
of detailed plans with specific triggers, and must emphasize education and communication. It requires the commitment of leaders,
who must be educated regarding the magnitude of the risks faced
—even in a moderate, not a worst-case, pandemic.
A plan should be put in place ASAP. It was repeated that “perfect should not be the enemy of good.” Organizations should
put plans in place and then continually improve them.
sition of this team is important, with representation from all
key functions, including operations, HR, legal, and IT. A learning for many attendees was the need to include a medical
person on this team. In several sessions it was mentioned that
companies should first create general crisis response and
business continuity plans, and then tailor those plans to the
unique realities of a pandemic.
` Development of HR policies is critical. In a pandemic should
people report to work or work from home? Will they be paid?
Will they be provided with TAMIFLU? These questions can’t be
answered in the middle of a crisis; the answers must be
developed and communicated in advance.
Key Themes
` Communication is perhaps the most important component of
A future pandemic is seen as inevitable, with significant
societal and economic impacts.
any pandemic plan. In particular, fast and accurate employee
communication is essential. Communication tactics and
messages should be planned in advance. Effective messaging
communicates: 1) here is what we know; 2) here is what we
are doing; and 3) here is what you need to do. Communicating
quickly and continuously is more important than waiting to
communicate until all information is available. External communication is also important, as corporate reputations are made
or broken in crises. (Also, addressing the communication infrastructure is important. Many organizations will use satellite
phones if other means of communication don’t work.)
There is little argument among the scientific community about
whether a future pandemic will occur. What is uncertain is when
and how lethal it will be. A key takeaway from many participants
was a new recognition of how quickly a pandemic could spread
across the globe. Detection in Asia on one day could trigger
pandemic plans in the United States the following day.
The consequences of a future pandemic in terms of loss of life
and economic disruption are potentially enormous. The effect of
SARS in Toronto provided a glimpse of what could happen. While
this virus resulted in fewer than fifty deaths in Toronto, the panic
associated with SARS crippled travel, resulted in tens of thousands of lost jobs, and depressed the GDP of Canada by perhaps
three points. Dr. Sherri Cooper estimates that a severe pandemic
could cost the global economy $3 trillion.
©2007 by Harvard Business
School Publishing
not equate to preparation.) This plan must be detailed, stating
who does what in what circumstances. It should have clear
“triggers” for action, should anticipate high rates of absenteeism (40% was frequently cited), and should take succession
planning into account. It also should have a method for determining what business and personnel are essential, with processes for equipping essential personnel to work and
communicate from home.
` Creating the plan requires a crisis response team. The compo-
With investments in preparation, the risks of a pandemic can be
mitigated, and more businesses and individuals will survive and will
be able to resume their normal lives after the pandemic passes. In
addition, the benefits of achieving resiliency, flexibility, and more
effective communications will be seen beyond the pandemic.

The key action that is required: achieving preparedness.
` Improving the plan requires real-world exercises. Plans are
developed based on the best current thinking from the right
group of people. These plans must then be tested through
real-world scenarios and exercises that challenge the organization and identify gaps in the plan.
Page 4
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
` Employers and government should help individuals prepare.
in his/her own organization and industry.
Because in a pandemic people could be isolated in their homes
for weeks, they must receive information and education about
what they need to do to prepare.

Desired by participants is more specific guidance from the federal
government on pandemic planning. Participants see lots of information coming from the government, but they perceive a lack of
leadership, guidance, and consistency. It was hoped that the
creation of a new Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and
Emergency Response would help address this.
Investing to achieve preparedness requires strong
support from senior leadership.
Achieving preparedness requires a significant investment of
resources—both people and money—which only comes about
through the support of leaders. Much discussion focused on
how to secure the needed leadership. Among the approaches
discussed were:

While much of the conference focused on detailed pandemic
plans and clear trigger points, not lost was the human element
of a crisis. Plans are absolutely necessary. But also needed are
leaders who understand the emotions of a crisis and can manage
their own emotions in such a way that they can inspire others.
` Educating leaders that pandemic is a “predictable surprise.”
Predictable surprises are those where the facts show overwhelmingly the likelihood of an event, such as 9/11, but
barriers exist that impede acting. Action can occur when
leaders are exposed to the concept of “predictable surprises”
and to the consequences of not acting.
Humans are wired to respond emotionally in stressful situations.
Leaders must understand this and in stressful situations such as
a pandemic must be able to move beyond their instinctive emotional reaction to activate higher levels of their brain. A tactic for
doing this is to recognize the stress and to resort to routines and
protocols. Comfort with routines allows a leader to then engage
the parts of the brain needed for hope, compassion, and
inspiration, creativity, and effective problem solving.
` Including pandemic as part of enterprise risk management
(ERM). Increasingly ERM is a corporate function that looks at
all of the risks a company faces, quantifies them, prioritizes
them, and then takes action to mitigate them. Those with
knowledge of the magnitude of a pandemic must get pandemic
on the ERM agenda, and must quantify the exposure. This
quantification will get leadership attention and action.
` Making a compelling business case based on a mild or moder-
Other Important Points
ate pandemic. Too often, discussions about pandemic cite
statistics related to a worst-case scenario. Such statistics are
almost beyond belief. Presenting data from a mild or moderate
pandemic is more believable, more credible, and will still be
compelling enough to get leaders’ attention.
Professor Yossi Sheffi observed that companies that are well
prepared for a disaster are good at prioritizing, are flexible in
responding to changes in demand, are resilient, and work
together well as a team—all qualities that equip companies to
compete in rapidly changing market conditions. Thus, doing what
is necessary to prepare for a pandemic or for any disaster helps
build the foundation necessary to compete more effectively day
to day and creates competitive advantage.

Responding effectively in a crisis requires leaders who
are prepared to lead.

Join the conversation. Harvard Business School Publishing has
made it possible for the interaction and sharing of ideas to continue. A wealth of resources are available at
http://hbsp.ed4.net/pandemic/resources.cfm?l=&c=&e and a
blog can be found at http://pandemicprep.typepad.com/.

Mutational, temporal, special map. Dan Janies and Andrew
Hill from the University of Colorado used Google Earth to present
a multi-dimensional map they have developed that shows over
the past 100 years which host species (human, avian, etc.) have
been infected by which influenza viruses, in which geographies,
at what dates. This shows the strains and mutations of these
viruses and how they migrate from one geography to another. It
also provides public health officials with the capability to look at
which mutations are important in their region. Download the
map at: http://systbio.org/?q=taxonomy/term/1. (Google Earth,
available for free, is required for viewing it.)

Survey results. Prior to the conference about 500 people
completed a short survey about general pandemic knowledge.
Among the respondents, only 41% correctly identified the World
Health Organization’s pandemic alert as currently at phase 3.
(Because many organizations’ pandemic plans are linked to the
WHO phase, knowing its current level is critical.)
Preparedness requires connectivity.
In today’s interconnected, interdependent world, no company is
an island. Achieving preparedness requires replacing the notion
of independent silos with one of linkage and connectivity. Companies should connect with others in the same industry and
connect with government, especially local public health officials.
(The need to forge relationships with local health officials prior to
a pandemic was repeated numerous times during the conference
with the refrain, “Take a public health official to lunch.”)
Achieving this linking of silos requires meta-leaders who can lead
within their silos, lead up, and lead across silos. Meta-leaders
bring disparate groups together to act for a common purpose.
Each person at this conference needs to become a meta-leader
School Publishing
Page 5
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Potential Economic Impact of Pandemic
Speaker: Sherry Cooper, PhD, Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets
No one knows whether H5N1 will cause the next pandemic. But
the scientific community is in agreement that there will be a
future pandemic. The questions are only when it will occur and
how severe it will be. (The 1918 pandemic was severe, while the
pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were both mild.)
The Big Idea
The societal and economic impact of a pandemic will be huge, with
potentially massive levels of economic disruption. Delays in global
supply chains, absenteeism, and panic will combine to cause
shortages and price increases on necessities, while demand and
prices on everything else will plummet. Ultimately, life will go on
and the economy will rebound. Businesses are advised to do all
they can to prepare for this inevitable pandemic.
Dr. Cooper sees a future pandemic as a low-probability, high-risk
event, which is as a “predictable surprise.” In other words, the
probability that it will occur today, tomorrow, or on any specific
day is low, but the impacts when it does come will be huge.
Quick Summary:
“On any given day, the probability [of a pandemic] is low, but if it happens, the cost is enormous
in dollars, deaths, and sustained impact.”
• A future pandemic is viewed as inevitable.
• Much can be learned about the likely impacts of a pandemic
by studying the effect of SARS in Toronto in 2003.
⎯ Dr. Sherry Cooper

• A pandemic’s economic consequences will be enormous, with
major supply chain disruptions and shortages on key items.
• Asia will likely be at the center of any influenza pandemic.
Medically speaking, SARS was relatively mild compared with a
pandemic. Worldwide, there were just over 8,000 cases and just
shy of 800 deaths. In Toronto—the only city in North America
that experienced SARS cases and deaths—252 cases resulted in
just forty-four deaths. But the societal and economic disruption
from this mild medical event was enormous, not just in Toronto
but throughout Canada.
• A severe pandemic could have long-term consequences,
especially for the labor market due to the demographics of
those affected.
• The private sector needs to prepare for pandemic.
• Even in a worst-case scenario life will go on; 98% to 99% of
the population will survive, and the economy will rebound.
Some hospitals were at surge capacity, and both hospitals and
schools were closed. More than 15,000 individuals were quarantined. The WHO advised people not to travel to Toronto. This
crushed Toronto’s tourism and hospitality industries, resulting in
28,000 lost jobs and losses of $500 million. Due to bad PR, even
four years later the tourism industry has still not fully recovered.
Overall, Ontario lost an estimated $2 billion, and Canada’s GDP
for the SARS-affected quarter contracted by 1.5% (annualized),
after trending at growth rates between 2% and 3% prior to
SARS. Thus, SARS—responsible for only forty-four deaths—
apparently cost the country three percentage points of GDP
growth that quarter.
Context
Dr. Cooper presented an economist’s view of the potential threat
and consequences of a pandemic and, as a Toronto resident, drew
first-hand on the impact of SARS in Toronto in 2003.
Key Learnings

Much can be learned about the potential impact of a
pandemic by studying SARS’ effect on Toronto in 2003.
While H5N1 isn’t certain to be the next pandemic, a
next pandemic is virtually certain.
In addition to the medical and economic impact, SARS caused
massive fear, anxiety, and even irrational behavior. Some people
wouldn’t go to the dentist, and some dentists wouldn’t treat
some patients; and there was anger directed at Toronto’s Asian
community (as SARS was traced to a community member’s
recent trip to Asia).
To date, there have been 311 human cases of avian flu and 179
deaths, a death rate in excess of 50%. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Pandemic Phase Scale (below) is currently at
phase 3, which means there is a pandemic alert, that there is a
new virus (H5N1) that causes human cases, but to date this virus
has caused no or very limited human-to-human transmission.

The economic impact of the next pandemic will be far
greater than that of previous ones.
Today the world is connected as never before, with global trade
and commerce at unprecedented levels. Multinational companies
reign, and most multinationals engage in outsourcing, offshoring, and have global supply chains that operate on a “just
in time” basis with little inventory or stockpiling.
School Publishing
Page 6
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
In the event of a pandemic, especially a severe one, fear and
panic would be high, and border closures likely. Concerns exist of
unlawful behavior and inadequate first responders. Absenteeism
is estimated at 25% to 45%. This would cause immediate and
significant disruption for the interconnected global supply chain.
And, unlike a disaster such as a hurricane that affects one area
and passes in a matter of days, a pandemic would be pervasive
—affecting everyone everywhere—and prolonged.
Demand for and prices of necessities would shoot up. Expect
shortages of items ranging from health care supplies to groceries. (Grocery stores in Canada tend to carry just three days of
inventory for normal purchase patterns.) Meanwhile, demand
for all else—such as luxury goods and entertainment—would
plummet as people would be hunkered down and focused on
survival. Home sales would immediately dry up. Travel restrictions would cripple the travel and tourism industries, which
represent 10% of global GDP and 8% of all jobs. Prolonged
service disruptions could occur in areas including electricity,
clean water, waste management, and flow of information.

In the event of a Cytokine storm (á la 1918), the highest fatality
rates would be among those from fifteen to forty years of age.
Massive deaths in this demographic would have lasting impact.
Birth rates would plunge, the average age would increase, and
existing workforce shortages would become even more
pronounced, as these are the most productive people in the
workforce.

In general, people and organizations generally don’t prepare well
for low-probability, high-risk events. While even with preparation
the consequences may be significant, those who prepare are
likely to be far better off.
Overall, Dr. Cooper estimates that a mild pandemic would lead
to a loss in real GDP growth of 2% and a severe pandemic
would lead to a 6% loss in real GDP growth.
Asia is likely to play a key role in a future pandemic,
both medically and economically.
To date almost all of the reported cases of and deaths from
H5N1 have come from Asia. Dr. Cooper suggested that a future
pandemic is likely to begin in and spread from a poor country or
region. Despite the tremendous economic growth in Asia, Asia
remains incredibly poor. Currently 75% of the world’s population
has per-capita income below $10,000 per year; in China it is
about $8,000, and in India around $3,600. The average farmer
in China makes just $365 per year.
Yet the overall economic growth in Asia, and especially China, is
driving huge demands for all sorts of raw materials, including oil,
cement, iron, steel, etc. China is also a source of massive capital
inflows to the United States.
Any pandemic would dramatically slow trade with Asia. It would
decrease demand for commodities, and commodity prices would
plummet. It would cause big stock market volatility, and with a
slowing in the capital inflows from China, interest rates would
increase. All told, a pandemic could trigger a global recession,
which would lead the world’s central banks to flood the market
with money.
“China’s commodity boom could bust with a
pandemic.”

It is important to keep in mind that even in a worst-case
scenario, life will go on.
Dr. Cooper noted that, “It is hard not to be alarmist.” But she
also stated that even in a horrific pandemic similar to 1918, 98%
of the population will survive, borders will reopen, and trade will
ultimately recommence.

No “planning premium.” Dr. Cooper said that Wall Street
analysts aren’t yet paying attention to a firm’s pandemic plans.
They aren’t awarding “brownie points” to companies with good
pandemic plans and aren’t penalizing those that lack such plans.

Uncertain bandwidth. One of the major uncertainties is
whether there will be enough bandwidth to support the many
people working from home.

Second-degree effects. A pandemic is likely to have a series
of ripple effects. For example, during SARS in Toronto, the health
care system was so focused on SARS that care for all else was
backed up significantly. Dr. Cooper noted (somewhat in jest) that
shortages of anti-depressant medications could lead to an
unfathomable set of problems.

Community rationing. To prevent shortages, some communities might confiscate supplies from grocery stores and elsewhere
and ration them, if their local pandemic plans so dictate.
School Publishing
The private sector needs to make pandemic preparedness a priority.
C-level executives must be made to see the potential financial
impact of a pandemic and understand the importance of investing resources to prepare. Businesses must engage in continuity
planning and response simulations. They should plan for high
rates of absenteeism, assess which aspects of their operations
are critical, and focus on developing effective communications
plans. Firms should also consider: stockpiling essentials; enabling
key members of the workforce to telecommute; and updating
their HR policies.
“There will be a run on essentials…and little
demand for everything else.”

A worst-case scenario would have a long-term effect on
labor markets—and society generally.
Page 7
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Pandemic on the Horizon: The Public Health Realities
Moderator: Anthony L. Komaroff, MD, Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School; Editor-in-Chief, Harvard Health Publications
Speakers: Aaron Desmond, Director, Licensing and New Business Development, Center for Infectious Disease
Research and Policy
Wendy Everett, ScD, President, New England Healthcare Institute
Carter Mecher, MD, Director of Medical Preparedness Policy, White House Homeland Security Council
David S. Rosenthal, MD, Director, Harvard University Health Services
prepared to manage the population’s medical needs in a
pandemic. But a leader from a major hospital debunked this,
stating that he thinks his hospital has enough supplies for only
one week, and its leaders are simply hoping employees will be
heroic and come to work.
The Big Idea
Both the private sector and the government show gaps in their
understanding of the other’s role in a pandemic. Gaps also exist
in their comprehension of the next pandemic’s likely characteristics. Yet despite these gaps, much is known about what can and
must be done to plan for and mitigate the risks of a pandemic.
` Those from the private sector thought the federal government
would have an overarching plan for a pandemic, including
plans for border control and quarantine. But those from the
government see a pandemic as a state and local public health
issue; the federal government is focused on maintaining order.
Quick Summary:
•
Gaps exist in the federal government’s expectations of the
private sector and the private sector’s expectations of the
government. They must collaborate to address them.
•
In a pandemic the health system’s capacity is likely to be
inadequate; efforts must address demand for services.
•
While the specific characteristics of the next pandemic are
unknown, much is known that can help businesses prepare
now. Flexibility and ability to adjust are critical.
•
Pandemic planning is a continuous process that needs to
be built into a company’s risk management processes.
•
Harvard’s Emergency Response Plan illustrates a plan and a
structure that is relevant to any large, decentralized group.
The private sector and the federal government must work
together to identify the gaps that exist so each sector knows
what it needs to do. That dialogue is a necessary first step, but
in Dr. Everett’s view has not yet occurred.
“We have to figure out how working together can
bring better outcomes than working alone.”
⎯ Dr. Wendy Everett

Dr. Mecher explained the magnitude of a worst-case pandemic.
If a pandemic like 1918 were to occur, ninety million people
would become ill (30% of the population), forty-five million
would require medical care, and 10 million would need hospitalization. ICU admissions would be needed by 1.5 million people,
with only 60,000 ICU beds in the United States. An estimated
750,000 episodes would require a ventilator, but only 100,000
exist nationwide.
Context
This panel assessed the status of pandemic planning in the public
and private sectors and suggested practical steps to take.
The reality is that it is simply not possible to increase the capacity of the United States health care system enough to deal with
this level of demand. As Mr. Desmond pointed out, “We can’t
change the core system; we have to live with it and work within
it.” Therefore, the United States government’s national strategy
focuses largely on delaying a pandemic (buying time so a vaccine
can be devel-oped) and slowing its spread. (This strategy is elaborated in the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan, which provides five United States government
stages.)
Key Learnings

Big gaps exist in the federal government’s expectations
of the private sector’s pandemic plans and vice versa.
Dr. Everett’s organization orchestrates forums that bring together
stakeholders to resolve difficult issues. One such forum convened
leaders from the private sector and the federal government to
focus on pandemic preparedness. The gaps in the expectations
between these groups were stunning. Specifically:
` The federal government believed the private sector would be
far along in developing pandemic plans. But among the private
sector leaders in attendance, just five of eighty-five said their
organiza-tion had a well-developed plan.

...So curtailing demand for health services will be the
only alternative.
Since addressing the supply side is not feasible, the idea is to
address the demand side by slowing the spread of a pandemic
and mitigating the demands on the health system. Strategies
` The federal government expected that hospitals would be well
School Publishing
In a severe pandemic, expanding health care capacity
enough will be impossible...
Page 8
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
include social distancing, early closure of schools, administering
pre-pandemic vaccines while a strain-specific vaccine is developed (a process that could take twenty weeks), and administering antivirals quickly and even prophylactically. (But, while
significant antiviral stockpiles exist, it is unclear if they’ll work.)
logos, and decide independently about opening in a snowstorm.
Events such as 9/11, Katrina, and Virginia Tech were drivers to
create a university-wide EMP. In focusing on a potential pandemic, goals for the EMP were established and include: protecting
the health and safety of the university community; providing
essential services to those who must remain at the university
during a pandemic; sustaining critical research activities; protecting the university’s physical and intellectual assets; and when
the pandemic is over, returning to normal as quickly as possible.
“We just can’t increase capacity [of the health
care system] enough, so we are asking, ‘What
can we do to slow it [demand] down?”
⎯ Dr. Carter Mecher

The organization structure that was established consists of:
While the next pandemic will differ from past ones, some
generalizable learnings apply and can be used to plan.
` Crisis Management Team (CMT): This team—which is chaired
by the Provost and includes deans and vice presidents—sets
consistent crisis management policies and procedures for the
entire university.
Every pandemic is different. While the next one is unpredictable,
some learnings can be gleaned and plans developed based on
previous pandemics. These include:
` Incident Support Team (IST): This is the group that developed
` Be flexible: Because the next pandemic will be a unique and
the specific plans for responding to an incident, with several
IST subcommittees.
unpredictable event, organizations need to be flexible, able
to pivot, adjust, and improvise.
` Local Emergency Management Teams (LEMTs): Teams have
been established at each of the 28 schools to develop schoolspecific emergency response plans that are consistent with the
policies and plans of the CMT and the IST.
` Plan for early school closures: Children are at high risk, both
due to their age and due to the high density of classrooms and
school busses. Therefore, schools will close quickly. Businesses
need to consider the implications of this and plan for it.
` Medical Advisory Committee (MAC): This committee of medical
experts advises the CMT and the IST and prompts them to
take certain actions.
` High absenteeism: Absenteeism of 40% is predicted. Busi-
nesses need to anticipate this and plan for it.
` Social distancing: In any type of pandemic, social distancing
“The result is a centralized group of organizations
to respond to any type of crisis.”
will be a critical strategy. Organizations need to think through
how this can apply to their workforce and need to look at both
HR policies and technologies for telework.
⎯ Dr. David S. Rosenthal
These groups hold regular meetings and participate in ongoing
drills. Drills are highly recommended and have generated invaluable learning. A critical aspect of this process has been to
put in place systems, such as satellite phones, that allow members of these teams to communicate in the event of a crisis.
“The message is that there is lots that business
can do now to prepare.”
⎯ Dr. Carter Mecher

Pandemic planning is a continuous process.
The panel concurred that an organization is never done planning
for a pandemic; the process is continuous. They also agreed that
organizations need to move quickly to put plans in place, plans
that can be improved as more information becomes known. Dr.
Mecher stressed, “Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.” The
panel suggested putting out the best possible plan today and
then constantly evolving that plan. Mr. Desmond emphasized the
importance of making pandemic planning part of a company’s
risk management process and a recurring budget item.
“It [pandemic planning] needs to be part of the
regular planning process. If not, it will be ignored.”
⎯ Aaron Desmond

Harvard’s Emergency Management Plan (EMP) is an
example applicable to any decentralized organization.

Media inattention. Pandemic has largely dropped from the
attention of the mainstream media, though the threat level has
not declined at all. Mr. Desmond quoted CDC Director Julie
Gerberding in saying that this is “a marathon, not a sprint.”

Parent’s perspective. Dr. Mecher noted that people see the
issues surrounding a pandemic from their own perspective.
However, he believes that anyone with children will ultimately
see the threat of a pandemic from the perspective of “parent.”

Sharing information. Mr. Desmond argued that organizations
must become more open in sharing their pandemic plans so that
best practices and benchmarks can be developed.

Succession plans. A key aspect of any emergency response or
pandemic plan should be succession plans, which may be necessary if a leader becomes unable to work.
Like many corporations, Harvard is highly decentralized; it is
composed of twenty-eight independent entities with 50,000
students, faculty, and staff. They have different missions, visions,
School Publishing
Page 9
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Critical Response: Beyond Functional Expertise
Speakers: Eddie Erlandson, PhD, Senior Vice President, Work Ethic Corporation; Co-Author, The Alpha Male Syndrome
Frances Johnston, PhD, Co-Chair and Managing Director, Teleos Leadership Institute
that leaders be able to understand their own emotions and
self-manage them. By doing so, they can provide positive
emotions that inspire others. These include hope for a better
future, optimism, compassion, and possibility.
The Big Idea
In addition to planning, how leaders behave in a crisis has an
enormous effect on how an organization responds. It is important that leaders know what type of leader they will be in a crisis
and can manage their own emotions while inspiring others with
hope, optimism, and compassion.
“Great leaders are able to manage their
emotions in the moment.”
⎯ Dr. Frances Johnston
Quick Summary:
Dr. Erlandson suggested that people understand the obstacles
that keep them in the emotional part of the brain (e.g., denial
and defensiveness), and understand strategies to accelerate
moving to the prefrontal area.
• How people react in stressful situations is “hard-wired.”
• Leaders must understand their wiring and natural tendencies. They must understand what type of leader they will
be in a crisis, so they can manage their own emotions and
lead/inspire others.

Effective self-management requires self-awareness.
We all have a range of personas that emerge in various situations. To be able to manage one’s emotions in a crisis, a
leader must have a clear sense of who she “becomes” in
various situations. She should engage in self-reflection to
understand “who will show up in a crisis.” Light can be shed
on who will show up by assessing who has shown up in previous situations, looking at one’s greatest successes and at
not-so-stellar moments. This will help a person understand
how she responds under acute stress. The questions to ask:
• When leaders are self-aware, it is possible for them to
take actions to change their behaviors.
Context
Drs. Erlandson and Johnston focused on how people—especially
leaders—react in crisis situations. They discussed hard-wiring,
self-awareness, and offered suggestions for developing
behaviors to be better able to lead in a crisis.
1.
Who will show up in the pre-crisis research/immersion
phase (in which all organizations should be right now)?
Key Learnings
2.
If a crisis were to occur, who would show up during it?
3.
When the crisis has passed and the recovery phase
commences, who will show up?

Humans are hard-wired to feel before we think.
Humans are emotional creatures. Research shows we are
hard-wired to respond in self-protective ways under stress.
In a stressful situation, the thalamus and amygdala (the parts
of the brain that control fight and flight) fire first, before the
prefrontal area of the brain (that controls more cognitive,
executive functions).
Dr. Erlandson explained that in thinking about who would
show up, individuals should think about what type of leader
they are. Most leaders can be categorized as “alphas”—which
are those who are driven to create results, are impatient,
tenacious, self-confident, decisive, and take action. There are
four distinct types of alphas:
“At times the emotional brain hijacks the rational
brain, often after periods of prolonged stress.”
` Commanders: They are charismatic and persuasive, have
hope and optimism, and can inspire. The challenge for
commanders is that they not run over others, leaving space
for those with different styles to flourish.
⎯ Dr. Frances Johnston
This initial emotional reaction to stress affects how people
receive information, how they act, and how leaders lead.
Since a pandemic is likely to be highly stressful, it is essential
that leaders understand how people behave when under
stress, and how stress affects them personally.

` Visionaries: These individuals are naturally wired to see the
future and to see possibilities beyond what others can see.
But at times they ignore reality and don’t live in the present.
They lose interest in the routine. When others don’t see
their vision, they will try to sell this vision (even spinning it).
Leaders must be able to manage their emotions so
they can lead and inspire others.
` Strategists: They are focused, analytical, and data-driven;
In times of crisis, people look to leaders for guidance. They
expect strategy, guidance, and direction, but also expect and
need leadership on a human level. It is therefore essential
School Publishing
they see underlying patterns. But they can be emotionally
insensitive.
Page 10
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
` Executors: They focus on getting things done by developing
specific, detailed plans. They have clear and realistic goals,
project plans, and timelines. They keep things on track. But
they are not always flexible when changes to a plan are
required.

Applying in smaller groups. While this session focused on
the behaviors of leaders in large organizations, one participant
noted that these lessons are broadly applicable. During a pandemic communities and neighborhoods will play a critical role
in everyone’s life, as people will be quarantined at home for
long periods. Controlling stressful emotions in these environments will be important for everyone.

Wiggling works. Dr. Erlandson led conference participants
in a thirty-second exercise of moving one’s fingers, wrists,
elbows, shoulders, face, neck, feet, and pelvis. The exercise
was both fun and physiologic. It released endorphins and
changed people’s mental state. Dr. Erlandson told the group,
“You are now operating in a different part of your brain.”
This is a technique that can be deployed at any time.
It is important that leaders be aware of their own leadership
profile so they understand their personal strengths and shortcomings, and have a sense of how they will react in a crisis.
“Think about who shows up, and is that person
effective?”
⎯ Dr. Eddie Erlandson

It is possible for leaders to change their natural styles.
While everyone has hard-wired tendencies, it is possible for
leaders to overcome their natural styles. Dr. Erlandson
recommended the following steps to bring about change:
` Own it. Changing one’s natural style starts with being fully
aware of it.
` Be transparent about it. Leaders must be open about what
their natural style is.
` Commit to change. Leaders must make a firm personal
commitment to change. No change will take place without
commitment.
` Practice daily. Changing one’s natural tendencies requires
discipline and daily practice. It is possible to retrain one’s
neurological pathways by practicing strategies of compassion, hopefulness, and optimism.
“You are unlikely to change if you don’t practice.”
⎯ Dr. Eddie Erlandson
School Publishing
Page 11
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
CEO Perspective
Speaker: George B. Abercrombie, Chief Executive Officer, Roche North America
This lack of preparation comes as many business leaders don’t
think preparation will matter. In a separate survey, 40% of
business leaders said that they didn’t think there was much
their company could do to prepare for a pandemic.
The Big Idea
Roche is at the forefront of pandemic planning—both as a
leading pharmaceutical company that is sharing what it has done
to prepare and as the manufacturer of TAMIFLU®, the leading
antiviral stockpiled for preventing and treating the H5N1 virus.
While the government will do all it can to provide surveillance
and contain an outbreak, the government has been clear that
preparing the private sector is not its responsibility.
Quick Summary:
“Those [in the private sector] expecting the federal
government to ride in to the rescue will be sorely
disappointed.”
• Businesses are not prepared for a pandemic, and they must
prepare now. Waiting until a pandemic occurs is too late.
⎯ George B. Abercrombie, quoting Michael Leavitt,
Secretary, U.S. Department of Health & Human
Services
• Roche has invested significantly in its own preparation, and
is sharing what it has learned to benefit others.
• Stockpiling TAMIFLU is an important part of a pandemic
plan. Roche has made significant efforts to boost its
capacity to provide this critical drug.
Now is the time for companies to prepare, while still at the
WHO’s phase 3. Once evidence of human-to-human transmission triggers phase 4, it will be too late to begin planning.
Context
“Planning is the most important step you can take.
We can’t start planning at Phase 4; at that point it
will be too late…I encourage you to plan now.”
Mr. Abercrombie shared Roche’s views that businesses need to
formulate pandemic preparedness plans now, and he described
what Roche has learned through its own preparation efforts. He
explained the role that TAMIFLU, Roche’s antiviral, plays in a
pandemic and what Roche has done to boost TAMIFLU capacity.
⎯ George B. Abercrombie

Roche has more to offer to pandemic preparedness than just
its products. The firm takes the threat of pandemic seriously
and has developed comprehensive business continuity plans
for each functional area of the company.
Roche is a research-based pharmaceutical company focused on
discovering, developing, manufacturing, and marketing innovative medicines. In addition to TAMIFLU, Roche produces: cancer
therapies; medications that prevent organ transplant rejection;
and therapies for hepatitis B, C, osteoporosis, and HIV/AIDS.
The starting point in pandemic planning for Roche—and for
any organization—is strong commitment from the top. Mr.
Abercrombie emphasized that CEO buy-in is essential. “The
CEO must commit to a plan and must see it through.” Mr.
Abercrombie personally leads Roche’s pandemic efforts.
Key Learnings

Most U.S. businesses are not prepared for a pandemic.
In developing its plans, Roche formed a core team of executives and involved outside consultants and experts as needed.
Despite the unabated threat of a pandemic, the U.S. private
sector has been complacent in pandemic planning. It may be
that business leaders have simply grown tired of continuous
warnings, first with Y2K, then with terrorism alerts and SARS,
and now pandemic. After three years of pandemic warnings,
media coverage has dissipated, leading many to falsely believe
that the threat has decreased, which is not the case.
One step Roche took was to study how the Spanish Influenza
of 1918 moved through society. This analysis led Roche to
conclude that a pandemic will happen fast, that waves will hit
an area and last four to twelve weeks, that a significant
percentage of the population will become sick in a short time
and will inundate emergency rooms, and that the health care
system will be overwhelmed and will largely shut down.
The fact is most companies don’t have plans for continuing
their operations in the event of a pandemic. In 2006 the
Washington Post reported that of business leaders surveyed:
`
`
`
`
With these assumptions in mind, Roche’s leaders undertook
developing a pandemic plan by formulating, then working to
answer, many questions, including:
More than 50% expect a pandemic in the next two years.
67% said it would seriously disrupt their organizations.
67% also said their companies were not prepared.
33% said that no one in their organization had been
selected to lead the organization’s pandemic preparations.
School Publishing
Roche has invested significantly in pandemic preparation, and is sharing what it has learned to help others.
` Which employees do we protect?
` What are the critical components of the business?
Page 12
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
`
`
`
`
`
Who comes to work and who works from home?
Which positions are essential to keep the business running?
Who needs to be trained as understudies?
How do we service customers, run factories, sell products?
What communications capabilities are needed?
deemed TAMIFLU as the most significant defensive and preventative treatment against pandemic influenza.
In 2003, when H5N1 was seen in Asia, the CDC and the WHO
recommended stockpiling TAMIFLU. The U.S. government
wanted enough for 25% of the population, equal to eighty
million courses of therapy.
The most critical question was: “What are the core processes
essential to the operation of our business in the event of an
influenza pandemic?” The answer they came up with was:
“Getting pills to patients who need them.” They distinguished
between life-saving medicines and those just nice to have.
Before H5N1, Roche made TAMIFLU just for seasonal flu, producing only 10ten million courses of therapy each year. But
when the CDC and WHO recommended that the government
stockpile TAMIFLU, Roche went into overdrive. Since 2004,
Roche has increased its capacity more than fifteen-fold,
enabling production capacity of 400 million courses of therapy
per year. Global capacity now outstrips demand.
“Once we boiled it down like that, the overwhelming task became simpler; there were
fewer issues to debate.”
In addition, the U.S. government requested that Roche create
U.S.-based manufacturing capacity for TAMIFLU and a purely
U.S. supply chain, which Roche has done. Roche has also
created special packaging for governments around the world,
has conducted tests on TAMIFLU’s safety for children, and has
lowered the price so that governments can stockpile it. Roche
has licensed TAMIFLU in China, India, and Africa, and has
donated millions of courses of therapy to be used as a rapid
deployment stockpile when a pandemic is detected.
The plan that Roche developed has five major parts:
1.
An executive playbook: This simple guide is for managers
to navigate their way through a pandemic’s early stages.
2.
The comprehensive plan: This is the actual plan, created
for each functional area.
3.
4.
Simulations: Roche has performed multiple simulations to
pressure-test and improve their plan.
Roche has made the decision to provide TAMIFLU to all of its
employees in the event of a pandemic, and has seen similar
plans put in place by many leading multinational companies.
A recovery plan: This is the plan that kicks in following
the end of the crisis.
5.
Analysis of infrastructure needs and investments: This
“Employers should consider a cache of antivirals, especially for employees who work in
critical areas of the business.”
indi-cates the infrastructure, communications capabilities,
redun-dancies, etc. needed to execute all aspects of the
plan.
Mr. Abercrombie explained that in putting its framework and
plan together, Roche looked at the impact on operations, got
input from multiple stakeholders, and analyzed gaps. Every
department has created a pandemic plan and has completed
contingency plans, along with workshops and planning drills.

SARS learning. According to the WHO, the SARS epidemic
of 2003 offers a great template for pandemic planning. Due to
early disease recognition and rapid implementation of global
and national action, the threat was contained in short order.
This is a situation where planning, communication, data
sharing, and cooperation among global agencies worked.

Linking to phases. Mr. Abercrombie mentioned that the
Massachusetts pandemic plan provides a good model, as it
specifies activities to take place at each WHO phase. He
suggested that the plans businesses develop follow suit,
with specific actions corresponding to each WHO phase.

Employee HR policies. An important part of any pandemic
plan is consideration of HR policies. Roche has already decided
which jobs and functions need to be done on site and which
can be done at home. The company will continue to pay all
employees during a pandemic.
To help others benefit from Roche’s years of planning, multimillion-dollar investment, and learning about pandemic
planning, Roche has created www.pandemictoolkit.com.

TAMIFLU is a critical part of a pandemic plan; Roche
is doing all it can to ensure adequate quantities.
While the ultimate goal for the prevention and treatment of a
pandemic is a strain-specific vaccine, the strain of the next
pandemic is not known and won’t be known until it is already
well established among humans. And once the specific strain
is known, developing the strain-specific vaccine will take time.
Thus, when the next pandemic occurs, antivirals are the first
line of defense. According to WHO guidelines, TAMIFLU from
Roche is the only antiviral given a strong recommendation for
preventing and treating an H5N1 outbreak. The WHO has
School Publishing
Page 13
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Executive Preparedness: Best Practices Briefing
Moderator:
Speakers:
Paul Hemp, Senior Editor, Harvard Business Review
Steven D. Gravely, Practice Group Leader, Health Care Practice; Troutman Sanders LLP
Scott Rosenstein, Health Analyst, Eurasia Group
Jeff Seglin, Associate Professor, Emerson College; Syndicated Ethics Columnist, New York Times Syndicate
Richard H. Wilkins, DO, MPH, FAOCOPM, General Manager, Health and Medical Services, Chevron Corporation
Recognizing that more needed to be done, Mr. Wilkins convened a group of private-sector and public health experts to
address actions to improve preparedness. A key conclusion
of this group is that all stakeholders are connected and must
work together: the public and private sectors; customers and
suppliers; employers and employees.
The Big Idea
Pandemic planning is complex, involving a range of necessary
considerations: customers, supply chain, employees, financial,
legal, ethical, and more. Businesses must get moving in developing pandemic plans, which means (among other things) getting
the support of executives, educating employees, and forming
relationships with public health officials.
This group decided that public and private sectors should work
to educate the public in areas where certainty exists. This includes hygiene and hand-washing, symptom recognition, and
social distancing. It is necessary to educate companies on
what they need to do to prepare, as well as communities,
families, and individuals. Other recommendations included
devising response plans for managing sick people, business
continuity plans that are upstream (to vendors) and downstream (to customers), operations, HR policies dealing with
pay and benefits, and communications plans.
Quick Summary:
• Despite the availability of much information, many businesses are not adequately prepared for a pandemic.
• All stakeholders are interdependent. The public and private
sectors must form relationships and work together, particularly in areas such as education.
• Pandemic planning requires executive support. Getting it
requires convincing executives of the financial impact.
Through its dialogue, this group also became aware that
relationships are lacking between companies and local public
health officials, relationships that are essential in messaging
and education, and that will be even more essential in a pandemic. It is important to form these relationships now, not
during a pandemic.
• In planning for a pandemic, make accurate estimates, and
assume a moderate, not worst-case, scenario.
• There are significant legal and ethical considerations that
must be taken into account, including the potential liability
companies might face for failure to prepare or respond.
“Those in the private sector need to take your
local public health people out to lunch.”
⎯ Paul Hemp
Context

This panel—composed of a general manager of corporate medical services at a major multinational, an attorney, a health
analyst for emerging markets, and a professor and writer on
ethics—offered their differing perspectives on effective pandemic
planning practices and key considerations.
There was agreement that preparedness begins with senior
executives who understand the risks and support creation of
pandemic plans. In many instances, the challenge is raising
the CEO’s consciousness so that pandemic planning becomes
a priority. Recommended approaches included:
Key Learnings

` Using numbers: Executives need to understand the potential
Pandemic planning requires a change in how companies think and act.
financial impact on their company. They need to see a case
for why investing to prepare makes good business sense.
The panel concurred that, despite much general information
about the risk of and threat posed by a pandemic, little specific guidance exists for private-sector companies. As a result,
many U.S. businesses have not done enough to prepare for a
pandemic, and need to do more.
` Assume just a “mild” or “moderate” scenario: Often the data
presented regarding a pandemic’s impact is “worst-case,”
mirroring the 1918 pandemic. But the magnitude of a worstcase scenario is almost beyond belief.
“People are familiar with the worst-case scenario,
but they aren’t engaged or dealing with it.”
“It [pandemic planning] has to change from
being adjunct to a way of doing business.”
⎯ Scott Rosenstein
⎯ Richard H. Wilkins
School Publishing
Executive support is essential. Getting it requires conveying the financial impact of a moderate scenario.
Page 14
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
It will be perceived as more credible if a moderate scenario
is presented, and even the effects of a moderate scenario
present a compelling case for preparation.
Companies should realize that individuals play different roles
in their lives (e.g., employee and father). Circumstances may
force a person to choose between their roles, choices often
made based on values. Thus, employers must expect that in
a pandemic, many employees will choose their families over
their jobs.
“Don’t just frame it as 1918; that’s tough for CEOs
to wrap their head around. It doesn’t have to be
the end of the world to have a dramatic impact.”
“People often have conflicting values in different
roles in life.”
⎯ Steven D. Gravely
` Get the support of the Crisis Management Team (CMT): In
⎯ Jeff Seglin
a company with a CMT, this team usually has credibility with
management. If they can show the gaps in planning that
exist and the potential implications of these gaps, it will
alert executives of the heightened focus that is needed.

Professor Seglin strongly recommends that companies in the
planning process think through the perspectives of all stakeholders to understand how they view particular situations.
Make realistic assumptions, and engage in drills and
scenario planning.
Too often, companies develop plans using aggressive and untested assumptions. Companies need to question all assumptions (such as, for employees to work from home does the
company have adequate server capacity?). A key way to learn
about reality is to engage in business continuity drills. This is
highly valuable in identifying gaps.

Hibernating. Some companies, especially those that have
failed to develop plans, may choose to hibernate during a
pandemic. However, this isn’t an option for organizations such
as those in health care or providers of critical infrastructure.

U.S. owner. While some participants see a federal owner
for pandemic planning as lacking, it was pointed out that Dr.
Craig Vanderwagen, the new Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Emergency Response at HHS, is now the official
federal owner. There was agreement that there remains
chain-of-command uncertainty at the federal level.

Sharing, not competing. The panel has seen companies,
especially within the same industry, that are cooperating by
sharing their pandemic plans, choosing not to compete in
this area. By doing so, they can identify common industry
practices, such as HR policies or policies for sharing antivirals.

Reliance on science. Many people in developed countries
dismiss the threat of a pandemic and postpone the need to
plan, believing that modern science can solve any problem.
This thinking is inaccurate. Experts believe that developing a
vaccine for the specific virus strain that causes a pandemic
will take at least several months; the Holy Grail of a universal
vaccine is at least ten years away.

Investment considerations. Companies with operations
and investments in emerging markets where a pandemic is
likely to originate and hit hard are very focused on the risks
in these markets. Some focus on the immediate risks, while
others are more concerned about the long-term implications.

Lacking infrastructure. The lack of adequate health care
infrastructure in emerging markets means that not only will
the capacity and care delivered in a pandemic be inadequate
but that a vaccine (if/when developed) won’t be able to be
quickly distributed.

EAP infrastructure. Companies need to build an EAP
(employee assistance program) infrastructure to provide
employees with adequate emotional support in the aftermath
of a pandemic.
Pandemic planning must take legal considerations into
account.
Legal preparedness must occur on the following dimensions:
` Compliance: Most businesses have a series of processes
that ensure compliance with various laws and regulations.
Even in the event of a pandemic, it is unlikely that the
government will alter its compliance expectations. Thus,
companies need to have plans in place to comply despite
pandemic-related difficulties.
` Risk mitigation: If a pandemic is deemed to be “imminently
foreseeable,” which seems likely based on guidelines issued
by the government (including the CDC and OSHA), then
companies may have liability for either a failure to prepare
or failure to respond. (It would be hard for companies to
argue that they were not aware of H5N1 or how to
prepare.) In the aftermath of Katrina, there is litigation
alleging failure to prepare, and there are post-SARS suits
claiming failure to respond. While the outcome of these
legal actions is not yet known, companies are advised to
develop pandemic plans that mitigate these risks.
` Sustainability: Legal issues surround a company’s continuity
of operations during a pandemic (take for example, a utility
company’s) and its survivability—its ability to emerge as a
viable entity afterwards.

Those engaged in pandemic planning must wrestle
with important ethical considerations.
Among the ethical considerations a company must think
through are how much money it is willing to lose in a crisis
and who will get antivirals.
School Publishing
Page 15
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Speaker: John M. Barry, Author, The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History
Moderator: Daniel A. Sharp, Worldwide Principal, Business Resilience Unisys Corporation;
Founding CEO/President, Royal Institution World Science Assembly (RiSci)
The consensus of the scientific community is that a future
influenza pandemic is inevitable, though many scientists do
not believe the H5N1 virus will cause it. Despite advances in
medicine since 1918, the chief factor determining the death
toll of a future pandemic will be the lethality of the virus itself.
The Big Idea
The 1918 influenza pandemic—the worst in history—holds
many lessons relevant to planning for a future pandemic. These
include the facts that: pandemics occur in waves; simple nonpharmacologic interventions (like hand washing) can make a big
difference; and quarantining can work, if it’s absolute. A lesson
from Katrina: Planning doesn’t equal preparation.
“The chief determinant of the death toll is the
virus itself, not medical intervention.”
⎯ John M. Barry
Quick Summary:

• The biggest factor affecting a future pandemic’s death toll
is not modern medicine, but the lethality of the virus itself.
The evidence that the 1918 pandemic occurred in distinct
waves is overwhelming. The first wave was mild—killing only
four New Zealanders out of the 3,048 who became ill and just
four of the 10,000-plus members of the British military who
got sick. Then the virus turned rapidly and dramatically more
lethal.
• We are even more vulnerable to an influenza pandemic
today than we were in 1918.
• More attention needs to be paid to the fact that pandemics
occur in waves.
• Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) can play a key
role in combating an influenza pandemic. Companies and
individuals need to be familiar with these NPIs.
Notably, those who were exposed to the first wave had considerable protection from the deadlier second wave. However,
there’s nothing to suggest that the mild-followed-by-severe
wave pattern seen in 1918 will occur again.
• Planning does not equal preparation.
From a policy perspective, paying attention to the waves could
be crucial. For example, if a pandemic began with a mild wave
as in 1918, it might make sense to expose people to this wave
so they can recover and be able to assist others if/when a
more lethal wave ensues. This highlights the importance of
surveillance, to understand the initial wave’s characteristics.
Context
Historian and author John M. Barry—the world’s leading expert
on the 1918 influenza—shared lessons from 1918 and discussed
how they can be applied in planning for and responding to a
future pandemic. (Attendees received a copy of Mr. Barry’s book
and an article summarizing some of the book’s key points.)
If the initial wave is mild, Mr. Barry intends to immediately jet
to Asia in hopes of catching the strain and protecting himself
from a later, more deadly strain. Military leaders have also
considered exposing their members to a mild first wave.
Key Learnings

The chief determinant of a flu pandemic’s death toll
won’t be medical advances but the virus itself.

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) can work.
The CDC has developed several NPIs that sound simple, can
be effective, and that Mr. Barry supports: hand washing,
social distancing, cough etiquette, and wearing masks to prevent spreading the virus (though he doesn’t support school
closings). Data from 1918 showed that morbidity among
people who washed dishes by machine was far better than
among those who washed them by hand, evidence of the
pivotal role played by hand-to-hand transmission.
Not all influenza viruses are as lethal as in 1918; much less
lethal viruses became pandemics in 1957 and 1968. And no
influenza viruses are constant; they mutate and change from
season to season, city to city, and even neighborhood to
neighborhood. The changing of the virus results in different
rates of morbidity (those who become sick but do not die) and
mortality (those who die). In 1918 morbidity rates varied by
city in the U.S. from 15% to 53%.
“I support them [NPIs]. Washing your hands is
critical and can be effective. But some NPIs are
hard to get people to do.”
Most of the time death from influenza is not from the virus
itself, but from secondary infections. However, in 1957, 20%
to 25% of all deaths came directly from the virus, and Mr.
Barry suspects that in 1918 perhaps 50% of the deaths came
directly from the virus.
School Publishing
Insufficient attention has been paid to the fact that
pandemics occur in waves.
⎯ John M. Barry
Page 16
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Use of NPIs has applicability for businesses. Hand washing can
be encouraged, social distancing recommended, and HR policies developed and communicated so sick people stay home.

Quarantining questions. Segregating and quarantining can
work, but only if it is 100% rigid. Any leakage will render the
quarantining fruitless. So a company planning to quarantine
some subset of its workforce should ensure the quarantine is
absolute and must be prepared to continue it for at least six to
eight weeks as the influenza wave passes through a community. If a pandemic’s first wave is mild, it may not make sense
to quarantine people but rather expose as many as possible.

Tell the truth. Like many other speakers, Mr. Barry emphasized the importance of communication. But he dislikes the
commonly used term “risk communication” as it sounds to him
like communication that is being managed. During a pandemic
there shouldn’t be any “managing” of communication. Those
communicating simply need to tell the truth.

Travel restrictions. Mr. Barry opposes travel restrictions, as
he believes they will be completely ineffective. But he realizes
that because leaders will be under political pressure travel
restrictions and school closings are likely.

African attention. When asked who should be provided
with copies of his book to raise their consciousness about the
threat of a pandemic, Mr. Barry said that Western leadership
is quite aware of the situation and is trying to get ahead of
the curve. Officials in Africa, however—where so many other
health issues are pressing—have not made pandemic planning
a priority. The developed countries are working to make this a
greater priority in Africa by providing certain forms of aid useful only in planning for and monitoring a pandemic.
Planning is not the same as preparation.
Many organizations are developing plans, but the key is being
prepared. Prior to Katrina, New Orleans had plans in place for
a hurricane, but in retrospect it is hard to argue that there
was adequate preparedness. Mr. Barry encouraged attendees
not simply to settle for having plans in place but to achieve
preparedness.
“Planning doesn’t equal preparation.”
⎯ John M. Barry

Childhood fatalities. It is estimated that in a severe pandemic, over a six to eight week period there could be as many
deaths in the United States among children aged one to four
as typically occurs during twenty years. The results among
slightly older children would be nearly as severe. While in
1918 childhood death was not uncommon, today we don’t
expect children to die. The psychological impact on society
would be enormous.
Mask effectiveness. Masks don’t protect the wearer from
getting sick, but they do prevent a sick person from spreading
the virus.
School Publishing
Page 17
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Medical Realities: What to Expect
Moderator: Anthony L. Komaroff, MD, Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School; Editor-in-Chief, Harvard Health Publications
Speakers:
Jonathan L. Burstein, MD, Assistant Professor of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
Robert M. Honigberg, MD, Chief Medical Officer, GE Healthcare
Doug Quarry, MD, Medical Director, International SOS Online
Richard D. Zane, MD, Vice Chairman, Department of Emergency Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital;
Faculty, Harvard Medical School
In each scenario—1918, 1957, 1968, and the projected future
pandemic—an estimated 25% of the state’s population
becomes ill. In the plans being used, the projection is that 4%
will require hospitalization and 1% die (representing 67,200
hospitalizations and 14,400 deaths, compared to 134,400 hospitalizations and 43,200 deaths in a 1918-like event). As bad
as this would be, the majority of individuals (75%) won’t
become ill, and 99% who do become ill will quickly recover,
will then be immune, and can head back to work.
The Big Idea
Preparation must take place at all levels: state and local; by hospitals; multinationals; individuals; and through public/private
partnerships. Planning should be based on a realistic assessment
of resources and capabilities, and be customized for the particular situations of each country, city, state, company, family, etc.
Quick Summary:

• Massachusetts is planning for a pandemic that is three
times worse than 1968, but only half as bad as 1918.
The need for hospitals to plan for surge capacity in a disaster
comes in a resource- and capacity-constrained environment.
Acute care hospitals are already operating at the edge of efficiency and at maximum capacity. Over the past thirty days,
for example, hospitals in Boston have been operating at more
than 100% of capacity. And during the past decade, ER
capacity in Massachusetts has decreased by 20%.
• Most hospitals’ pandemic planning is covered by their “all
hazard” plans—but a pandemic will go on longer than other
hazards, requiring changes in standards of care.
• Multinationals need pandemic plans customized by country.
These plans must define what is critical and must provide
global training.
• Greater attention needs to be paid to educating individuals
about home-based pandemic planning.
“The health care system in Massachusetts is
already operating at full capacity…ICUs are full.”
• Successful preparation requires public/private partnerships.
⎯ Dr. Richard D. Zane
Dr. Zane explained that in planning for a disaster, 90% of
hospitals’ planning is generic; most hospitals an “all hazards”
approach, preparing for any surge, regardless of the reason—
a natural disaster, terrorism, or a pandemic. Hospitals see
influenza as just another potential disaster. And, from their
perspective, there is no ROI for emergency preparedness.
Context
This panel of medical professionals from different parts of the
health care system shared perspectives on pandemic planning.
Key Learnings

This one-plan-fits-all-hazards approach, however, overlooks
the fact that the uncertainty, scale, and duration of a pandemic will make it different. A pandemic will strain a hospital’s
resources unlike shorter-lived disasters. Typically a hospital
can surge for seventy-two hours before its surge capacity
dissipates—which will not be adequate in a pandemic. After
surge capacity is exhausted, providers will require novel
approaches such as makeshift facilities (tents, shuddered
hospitals, mobile facilities, hotels, etc.) and temporary workers (who will have limited capabilities). Inevitably, hospitals
will have to look at altering standards of care.
Public health officials in Massachusetts are planning
for a surge three times greater than in 1968.
After analyzing the previous pandemics, Massachusetts public
health officials concluded that the scale of the 1918 pandemic
was so great that they couldn’t plan for it or deal with it.
Instead, they have chosen to prepare for a pandemic requiring
a surge three times greater than in 1968, as they believe that
this is practical, they can plan for it, they can ready enough
beds, and they have the resources to execute such a plan.
“The Massachusetts Department of Public Health is
planning for three times the surge as in 1968. It is
practical; we can plan for it; we can produce enough
beds; and we can prepare with current resources.”

Planning requires assessing critical functions/services,
and customizing plans to regions of operation.
Dr. Quarry, whose organization, International SOS Online,
provides global medical assistance to companies around the
world, suggested that companies prepare for a pandemic by
⎯ Dr. Jonathan L. Burstein
School Publishing
For hospitals, surge capacity may be inadequate and
standards of care may have to be altered.
Page 18
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
defining in advance what levels of staffing can be tolerated to
sustain service. Since most employees will say that they are
critical, companies need an analytical process and a clear
methodology to determine the services, functions, and roles
that are in fact critical.
“We need a new business model for partnership…
we need encouragement from the public sector to
develop value-added products, services, solutions.”
⎯ Dr. Robert M. Honigberg
Examples of this new approach could include collaborating to:
increase public awareness; improve communication systems;
better link health information systems; improve surveillance
and diagnostic capabilities; and use technology to add flexibility and surge capacity. GE Healthcare is looking at how it
can best leverage its portfolio of technologies to help provide
needed solutions in moving this new model forward.
“You need an analytical process to define critical
staff, a methodology to assess critical functions and
services.”
⎯ Doug Quarry, MD
He suggested that companies:
1.
2.
Develop a corporate plan. The plan should have policies
that state the plan’s intent, clear triggers tied to WHO
alert phases, and detailed action steps after each trigger.
Customize the plan by region/country. Multinationals need

Incenting health workers. Hospitals are aware that some
workers, concerned for their personal safety, will not work in a
pandemic. For planning purposes, attrition rates are estimated
at 40% to 50%. To incent workers, hospitals are planning to:
1) provide information that quantifies the risks—minimizing
the uncertainty that reigned during SARS; 2) provide drugs
first to health care workers and their families, even before
patients; and 3) provide resources (daycare, pet feeding, etc.)
to help health care workers manage the personal obligations
that could keep them from coming to work.

Downstream surge effects. The implications of a surge for
the health care system will be enormous. These downstream
effects can include loss of infrastructure needed to care for
the ill and loss of workers to personal demands, such as
caring for children or elderly relatives.

“N of 3.” While everyone involved in pandemic planning tries
to learn from previous pandemics, the reality is that the base
of experience is low, with a small collection of episodes represented by the comment “an N of 3.”

Banning handshakes. Dr. Burstein said that if he could
make one change to society, it would be to ban handshakes,
as they contribute enormously to the spread of diseases.
to create plans for each country in which they operate
based on the health care environment in that country.
Factors to keep in mind include the capacity of a country’s
health system, a country’s pandemic plan, its antiviral
stockpiles, and the ability to repatriate employees.
3.

Implement their plans. Part of implementing includes
training employees around the world on the organization’s
plans, which can be done online quickly and inexpensively.
More attention is needed toward educating individuals
on preparing and responding to a pandemic.
A conference participant noted that since most people who
become ill will remain in their home, the home is actually the
primary treatment site. This being the case, more guidance is
needed to educate those individuals who will remain at home.
The panelists agreed. Dr. Burstein said that Massachusetts has
developed training materials for individuals, but they need to
be made more accessible for people of all education levels.
Dr. Zane said the simplest interventions are often the best. He
suggested that individuals have crank radios, that those who
take medications have at least one month’s worth on hand,
and that families with small children have three weeks’ of food
and water. Dr. Quarry said that preparing individuals must be
a key part of a company’s plan, and Dr. Honigberg said that
technology can play a role, such as through home monitoring.

Public/private partnerships (PPPs) can play a role in
improving pandemic preparedness.
Dr. Honigberg said that the public sector has not adequately
engaged the private sector in pandemic planning. Historically
in disasters, the public sector has had the primary responsibility to provide goods and services, and the private sector has
reactively donated money. But Dr. Honigberg sees the opportunity for a new partnership model and closer public/private
relationships. This new model requires new types of incentives
and a new approach to enlisting the private sector.
School Publishing
Page 19
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
A New Perspective on Risk
Speakers: Michael Evangelides, Principal, Deloitte Consulting
Karen DeToro, Manager, Actuarial & Insurance Solutions Practice, Deloitte Consulting
have often identified “what” needs to be done to mitigate risk
of a pandemic, few have defined exactly “how” to do things.
The Big Idea
Making pandemic planning a corporate priority requires showing
executives the financial impact of a pandemic to their firm and
the value that can be preserved through preparation. Deloitte
Consulting’s Value-Based Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
approach can help companies quantify this value.
“Most companies understand what their core operations are, but they haven’t figured out how to
sustain them. You have to get to the ‘how.’”
⎯ Michael Evangelides

Quick Summary:
• As of yet, there are few best practices or common methodologies for pandemic planning.
Corporate pandemic preparedness does not yet appear
to be a C-suite or board-level issue.
While pandemic planning seems somewhat prominent among
HR executives, surveys of risk executives and finance executives and interactions with C-level executives show that
pandemic preparedness is not yet a priority.
• Many organizations know what they need to do to mitigate
risk, but they don’t know exactly how to do it.
• Pandemic preparedness is not yet a C-level priority at most
firms. Making it one requires showing the financial impact.
Among risk executives, almost 70% see a pandemic as likely
in the next decade, but only 10% believe their company is
well prepared to cope with the supply chain effects. Financial
executives generally haven’t been part of the conversation
about a pandemic. Almost 60% don’t understand the financial
implications of a pandemic and just 30% see it as a concern
of senior management. The result is that funding and
resources for preparedness are not where they need to be.
• Firms are using ERM to assess the most significant risks
faced by the enterprise, including risk from pandemic.
• Deloitte Consulting’s Value-Based ERM approach helps
companies quantify the value to the enterprise of each
major risk and then develop plans to mitigate these risks.
Corporate boards and C-level executives would become more
concerned if one of the following occurred:
Context
Mr. Evangelides shared findings from multiple Deloitte surveys
and his first-hand observations regarding corporate pandemic
preparedness. Ms. DeToro described Deloitte’s Value-Based ERM
approach to quantifying and managing risks such as pandemic.
` Sustained media attention regarding a pandemic. However,
Key Learnings
` Shareholder demands. Shareholders could demand greater

` Financial impact projection. Gaining an understanding of a
once sustained media attention occurs, it is too late to plan.
` Legislation or regulation that drives corporate action. But
this is unlikely and would be a long, slow process.
preparation, but this is also seen as unlikely.
Companies are at different stages of preparedness,
with few best practices or common methodologies.
pandemic’s potential financial impact is a corporation’s most
likely driver of action. Imparting this understanding entails
creating a model that is specific to a corporation and based
on agreed-upon assumptions. A mild or moderate pandemic
should be assumed, not a doomsday one. The key is to
show the financial impact and how planning can mitigate it.
Corporate preparedness has improved a great deal in the past
year, but still has a long way to go. A Deloitte Consulting survey of HR executives shows that pandemic planning is more
on their radar than a year ago. In December of 2005, 43%
said they were concerned about pandemic influenza, while by
December of 2006, 68% were concerned. A year ago, only
14% said their company had adequately planned to protect
itself, but by the end of 2006, 52% felt adequately prepared.
“If a company can model the corporate-level
financial impact, it may compel action.”
⎯ Michael Evangelides
But despite this progress, companies are going about pandemic planning very differently, with different groups of
people involved and different approaches. No best practices or
common methodologies have yet emerged. Most companies
have put in place some form of HR policies for a pandemic,
communications strategies and programs, and pandemicrelated employee wellness programs. But while companies
School Publishing

ERM is a process of identifying and deciding how to
address a company’s most significant risks.
ERM is a continuing process of identifying and then managing
a company’s biggest risks. The types of risks that are dealt
with—typically around the ten most significant ones—are not
just financial risks but include strategic and operational risks.
Page 20
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
ERM looks at risk holistically across an enterprise, not just
within silos of the company.
synthesis of ERM and value-based management. It has two
components:
Deloitte Consulting sees the ERM process as having the
following steps:
` ERM: As described above, this involves identifying the com-
1.
pany’s key operational and strategic risks.
Evaluation of current state: This involves looking at all of
` Value-Based Management: This entails taking a traditional
the possible risks that need to be considered.
2.
business approach to quantifying enterprise value. This
means determining the present value of managementprojected distributable earnings, discounted by a company’s
weighted average cost of capital.
Risk identification: This involves forming the short list of
the company’s ten to fifteen key risks. It is important to
have pandemic on this list.
3.
Risk measurement: This involves using tools (such as that
“Value-Based ERM is a tool to translate the qualitative view of risk into a risk’s measurable financial
impact.”
described below) to quantify the exposure presented by
each risk. Measurement also includes quantifying the
value of strategies to mitigate risks.
4.
⎯ Karen DeToro
Risk response (mitigate or exploit): ERM doesn’t end after
The process that Deloitte uses is:
the risks are quantified in step three; it continues and
includes the actions taken to address the firm’s key risks.
5.
1.
risks, which should include pandemic.
Performance measurement/management: When actions
are taken, results need to be monitored and models
modified based on what occurs.
6.
2.
Companies often adopt ERM when driven by regulators,
ratings agencies, or shareholders to better understand and
manage their risks.
3.
Quantify the value impact: This entails thinking through
the impact of a risk financially—looking at revenues, costs,
taxes, cost of capital, etc.—and then discounting the
results to show the value to the enterprise.
Deloitte’s Value-Based ERM approach provides a
method for quantifying the risks faced.
If risks can’t be quantified, then it is hard to make a compelling business case to management to act on them. This is
where Value-Based ERM comes in. Value-Based ERM is a
School Publishing
Define risk scenarios: This entails engaging those at the
company who are most intimately familiar with a particular
risk and having them visualize what the risks actually look
like. They detail as precisely as possible what would
happen if a risk occurred (e.g., the property damage, the
effects on employees, etc.). This sounds difficult, but once
those most knowledgeable think through a risk, this
visualization and quantification is achievable.
External communications: As results are achieved, companies should communicate both internally (which is
presumed to happen) and externally with regulators,
investors, customers, and partners. This step feeds
continuously back into step one.

Identify key risks: These are the firm’s ten or so key
A real-world example was presented: For a mid-sized life
insurance company with a market value of $1.4 billion, it was
estimated that a pandemic could exact a $208 million toll,
representing one-seventh of the firm’s value. This financial
impact was determined by estimating the effects of a pandemic on the firm’s assets, new sales, fixed costs, and a
variety of other financial variables. These projections caused
the firm to consider strategies to mitigate this risk.
Page 21
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
The Stricken Workforce: Keeping the Business Running
Moderator:
Speakers:
Melinda Merino, Senior Editor, Harvard Business School Press
Debra Cohen, PhD, SPHR, Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM)
Don Davis, Senior Vice President, Visa Corporate Services, Visa
Karen Dye, CBCP, Global Business Continuity Manager, Sun Microsystems
Randy R. Smith, Head, Critical Infrastructure Assurance Branch, U.S. Marine Corps
plans are important, no plan survives contact with the enemy
(which in this case is a virus). Keenly aware of the limitations
of plans, the Marines focus on guidelines that define desired
end-states; commanders then engage in adaptive planning to
arrive at those ends.
The Big Idea
Everyone is aware that in a pandemic absenteeism may be high,
at up to 40%. The challenge employers will face is continuing to
operate without a big part of their workforce. Preparing for that
challenge requires creating detailed policies that define what’s
critical and non-critical, learning through exercises, and equipping employees to work from home.
“Our commanders are adaptive planners. We give
them guidelines, give them a goal of the end-state,
and they adapt to get there.”
⎯ Randy R. Smith
Quick Summary:

• Managing the workforce in a pandemic requires detailed
policies and plans, especially HR policies.
Most of the speakers cited the importance and complexity of
pandemic-specific HR policies. These policies need to address
such issues as who will be expected to work and from where
(a workplace or their home) in the event of a pandemic,
whether employees will continue to be compensated, and
what happens if an employee refuses to come to work.
• Employee communication is a critical component of
effective pandemic planning and response.
• Exercises are critical in refining plans and identifying gaps.
• For employees to be able to work at home, the right infrastructure and training are needed.
Dr. Cohen stressed that the HR function needs to be at the
forefront of any discussion concerning the workforce, and that
employees need to be involved in this planning process so
their views are reflected and their needs are addressed.
Context
This panel discussed how companies are planning for the important workforce issues that would accompany any pandemic.
She shared that flexibility is already a major workplace trend,
which is likely to be even more pronounced in a pandemic.
Employers are encouraged to develop policies and plans that
provide their employees with flexibility.
Key Learnings

Managing the workforce in a pandemic starts with a
documented, detailed plan.

This plan, per Mr. Davis, should be approved by management
as policy, with supporting policies for each function, business
unit, and geography. Suggested aspects of this policy include
defining which functions and roles are mission-critical, and
developing checklists that state explicitly which actions will
be performed by which functions for each WHO phase.
Employee communication is critical in planning for
and responding to a pandemic.
All panelists recognize the importance of employee communication. Communication is needed to make an organization’s
plan understood. Employees need to hear consistent
messages about the company’s policies and what will happen
if a pandemic occurs. Consistent messaging gives employees
confidence that their employer has plans in place.
“You need a documented, detailed plan with a
checklist that is communicated to all employees.”
“You need to know in advance what to say and
how to say it. You want to be consistent.”
⎯ Don Davis
Ms. Dye suggested that companies, instead of developing pandemic plans from scratch, first try to leverage their existing
business continuity plans. These plans often have already defined the company’s key business processes and what needs
to happen to keep the business running. Mr. Smith indicated
that the Marine Corps is currently conducting its own deliberate planning process. He emphasized a Marine teaching: While
School Publishing
Because HR polices are so important, HR needs to be
deeply involved in the planning process.
⎯ Dr. Deborah Cohen
Part of communication is training and education about what
the individual employee needs to do to prepare. This is taking
place via Web-based training modules, intranet sites, and all
modes of employee communications.
Page 22
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Employers generally are giving much thought to how to contact employees in real time. This entails having up-to-date
information for each employee, and being able to reach them
via cell phone, text messaging, or instant messaging. Having
systems and technologies for immediate communication in the
event of a crisis has gotten even greater attention following
the recent crisis at Virginia Tech.
“Exercises are a way to conduct training and show
gaps in communication.”
⎯ Karen Dye

Many employers are attempting to address the projection of
40% absenteeism by defining critical employees and then
equipping them to work from home. Changing the venue
where work takes place, however, won’t happen as seamlessly
as it sounds. It will require the right planning to: 1) determine who is expected to work from home and under what
circumstances; and 2) put in place the right infrastructure,
training, and testing. Notably, managing employees remotely
requires different skills and approaches than managing in
person; training should prepare managers for this.
Importantly, communication must be two-way. Employers
need vehicles not only to disseminate messages to employees
but also to monitor them. Mr. Davis described an automated
system that Visa is putting in place. If a pandemic reaches
WHO alert phase 6, the company will use an automated dialing technology to call all employees every day to check on
their health status and that of their families.
Some organizations are creating communications-focused subteams as part of the overall crisis management team to own
the tasks associated with communication.

Exercises play a valuable role honing pandemic plans.

Multiple panelists mentioned the importance of exercises in
seeing how their plans and policies really work, in identifying
gaps, and in training the organization. Exercises should test
the organization’s response to various scenarios and should
take place at least once or twice yearly. Among the key
learnings that panelists derived from exercises were gaps in
communication and an inadequacy of HR policies in different
situations. Mr. Davis pointed out that through testing, Visa has
learned much it hadn’t realized or anticipated.
School Publishing
Employers must put in place the right infrastructure
and policies for critical employees to work from home.
Page 23
Emotional assistance. EAP programs don’t necessarily
provide the types of emotional support that employees will
require following a crisis. Companies are exploring putting
crisis response resources in place to provide appropriate
emotional assistance in the aftermath of a pandemic.
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Business Continuity and Communication
Speaker: Chuck Adams, Global Consulting Practice Leader, Business Resiliency, Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco
Cisco counsels its clients that in a pandemic they need to be
prepared for absenteeism of 40%, for multiple waves lasting
six to eight weeks, and for operating in a climate of social
distancing and quarantining.
The Big Idea
A pandemic will inevitably cause a massive workforce disruption.
For companies to survive this and continue to operate, employees must be able to communicate, collaborate, and work
remotely. Having large numbers of employees working remotely
requires investing in the technology and infrastructure to make
this possible.
“Anything you say before [a pandemic] outbreak
seems alarmist; anything after seems inadequate.”
⎯ Chuck Adams, quoting Michael Leavitt, U.S. Secretary
of Health and Human Services
Quick Summary:

• Organizations that are prepared to respond to a crisis have
strong central governance and the ability to collaborate.
Because of Cisco’s significant Asian operations, it was greatly
affected by SARS. With employees’ health and safety—and
that of their families—being Cisco’s number one concern, the
company imposed a self-quarantine on its employees. Somewhat unexpectedly, the company’s technology and online
culture came into play. All of the company’s employees had
laptops; they could connect to the Internet remotely and could
communicate and collaborate using VPNs (virtual private
networks). They therefore were expected to use their technology to work from home.
• Most businesses are ill prepared for a workforce disruption.
• Cisco’s experience with SARS, which involved leveraging
technology so employees could work remotely, showed the
power and importance of technology in business continuity.
• Cisco sees its biggest opportunity to effect change as
leading the way in the adoption of remote technologies.
Context
When SARS had passed, Cisco determined that employees
who had worked from home were just as productive as they
had been before. The company learned that communication
with and monitoring of employees in such situations is critical.
Further, this experience taught Cisco the importance of leveraging mobile technologies to enable continued operations,
communication, and collaboration—and it revealed to management the business opportunity in equipping other companies
with these capabilities.
Cisco’s Chuck Adams, who consults with Cisco’s clients around
the world on effective pandemic planning, shared some of the
points he communicates to clients.
Key Learnings

The key qualities of well-prepared organizations are
central governance and collaboration.

Cisco has observed that those organizations that are well prepared tend to have a structure that provides strong central
governance. This structure has a governance mechanism with
an “all hazards” approach to crisis management.
In general, businesses are not prepared for a major
workforce disruption.
“Remote techniques and technologies are critical in
enabling people to be productive in isolation.”
A conclusion that Cisco has drawn is that traditional business
continuity plans don’t adequately take into account shortages
of people, which is a major oversight. In one survey, 88% of
companies say they are prepared to deal with a power disruption, and 70% are prepared for a technology failure, but just
13% say they are prepared for a major workforce disruption.
School Publishing
Cisco sees implementing remote technologies as its
biggest way to make a difference in a pandemic.
While government and private-sector plans advocate strategies of social distancing—seen as necessary to slow the
spread of the influenza virus—the success of both social
distancing and business continuity requires effective remote
technologies that enable people to continue to work during a
pandemic. (In a worst-case pandemic, use of social distancing
to decrease the exposure rate by even 1% could conceivably
save millions of lives.)
In addition, organizations that are able to respond effectively
in a crisis have developed an ability to collaborate. This collaboration takes place among employees, and with customers
and suppliers. Communication is a key part of collaboration.

Cisco learned valuable lessons from the company’s
own exposure and response to SARS in 2003.
⎯ Chuck Adams
Cisco advises its clients to think through which people are
critical, and which are physically required. For those who are
critical but not physically required, virtualization represents a
viable option. It is important to understand these individuals’
roles as well as their communication and collaboration needs.
Page 24
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
(It is also important to ask whether those deemed to be
physically required actually are required—perhaps new technologies can allow them to work remotely as well?)
Cisco is leveraging its knowledge and portfolio of technology
to help organizations structure effective remote solutions. As
companies consider technologies to equip their workforce to
work remotely, they should keep in mind additional benefits
beyond the ability to respond more effectively and efficiently
in a pandemic. These include:

Continuous improvement. Mr. Adams counseled organizations not to focus on developing a perfect crisis response plan.
It is better to move quickly to put a plan in place and then
continuously improve the plan by identifying and closing gaps.

Self-education. A key responsibility of companies is to give
employees the ability—the technology and resources—to educate themselves. They need to know where to go for information, so they can take care of themselves and their families
and can be prepared to self-isolate for two to three weeks in
the event of a pandemic.

First-responder collaboration. Cisco has created a “patch
panel” technology that provides interoperability to first
responders. This technology ties together the multiple
communication technologies that first responders in various
agencies and departments (e.g., fire, police) use so that they
can all cooperate and collaborate.
` Savings on real estate through decreased needs for office
space.
` Increased productivity through decreased commute time.
` Improved morale through individuals’ ability to work at
home with their family nearby.
While the benefits are many, companies need to keep in mind
that the investments required to ready a remote workforce are
significant.
School Publishing
Page 25
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Boston, MA
Team Exercise Preparation: Meta-Leadership
Speakers: Barry Dorn, MD, Associate Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, Harvard School of Public Health
Leonard Marcus, PhD, Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, Harvard School of Public Health
various federal and state agencies and with suppliers,
customers, and employees.
The Big Idea
Because the world is interconnected and organizations are interdependent, meta-leaders are required who can build connectivity
across silos. The need for meta-leadership will never be greater
than in planning for and responding to a pandemic.
“Planners are undergoing a new realization that
‘We’re interdependent.’”
⎯ Dr. Leonard Marcus

Quick Summary:
• Organizations are realizing that having their own pandemic
plans isn’t adequate. Because the world is interconnected,
they are interdependent; their plans must link with others.
1.
• Leading disparate entities requires meta-leaders who can
lead their silo, lead up, and lead across, all by connecting.
Consistency: How to create consistency of strategy and
implementation of response plans.
2.
• Meta-leaders overcome the tendency to act emotionally in
stressful situations by resorting to protocols and then by
engaging in high-level, creative problem solving.
Connectivity: How to facilitate connectivity both between
the government and private sector, and across the private
sector.
3.
Credibility: How to earn credibility, without which it is
The three leadership challenges cited were:
hard to get a population’s support for a plan. Credibility
is contingent on consistency and connectivity.
Context

In advance of having participants engage in a scenario exercise,
Drs. Dorn and Marcus shared what they have learned in studying
leaders and described meta-leadership, the type of leadership
needed in a crisis. (They gave this presentation at the White
House just days earlier.)
` Personal readiness: Are you personally ready to provide
direction and move ahead with a plan for pandemic flu?
` Plan development: Have you assembled a process and a
plan that is written down and known by all?
` Plan activators: What indicators will prompt you to activate
Corporations are tuning in to what their interdependency means in a pandemic scenario.
the plan? This focuses on the specific triggers that will
prompt action.
For corporations, Katrina served as a wake-up call on the need
for disaster preparedness. It also led corporate leaders to
conclude that they couldn’t rely on government to save them
in a disaster.
“It is important to plan, but you’ve got to be able
to pull that trigger.”
⎯ Dr. Barry Dorn
` Employee protection: Does the plan protect the well being
In the six months following Katrina, the scientific community
began discussing the threat of pandemic influenza. This led
companies to develop—over the next six to twelve months—
their own corporate pandemic plans. This led planners within
companies to generally feel confident about their plans.
of employees?
` Operational continuity: Does the plan protect the continuity
of operations?

But in just the past few months, the federal government has
come out with its pandemic implementation plan. That plan
discusses specific policies, such as school closings, that companies had not anticipated. Now, corporations that just a short
time ago felt comfortable with their plans are realizing that
they failed to account for interdependency. Companies don’t
exist in a vacuum but are linked with other companies, government agencies, and society as a whole. Having their own
plan isn’t sufficient; plans must involve coordination with
School Publishing
Preparedness requires being able to address a very
specific set of questions.
These key questions are:
Key Learnings

Preparing for and responding to a pandemic presents
unique leadership challenges.
Achieving system-wide preparedness requires connectivity through meta-leadership.
The U.S. has a silo mentality, and preparedness tends to be
thought about and acted upon in silos. Major silos include
corporations, public health, government, and philanthropic
and community organizations.
Silos are not inherently bad—they’re necessary for organizational and functional reasons. The key is not to break
Page 26
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
down or eliminate silos but to provide strong leadership within
them and to connect them. The building of connectivity across
silos and leading multiple silos in cohesive action for the same
purpose is meta-leadership. When meta-leadership takes place
it results in a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts.
4.
above them of the urgency of a situation.
5.
“Meta-leadership is building connectivity of actions
across silos; it is leading without authority in acting
for the same purpose.”

⎯ Dr. Leonard Marcus
2.
The middle: This is the part of the brain that controls
engrained, routine procedures. Developing and implementing protocols helps people avoid going to the
basement by keeping them in the middle of their brain.
3.
The higher level: This is the part of the brain that allows
people to be creative and engage in problem solving.
Situation: They must get a clear picture of an event by
Like anyone else, leaders in stressful situations gravitate to their
emotional basement. But leaders must overcome this natural
tendency and get to their higher level. This requires recognizing
the stress and having routines and protocols to resort to—which
allow an individual first to get comfortable and move to the
middle brain, then to use their creative problem-solving skills.
Lead the silo: Meta-leaders must be able to lead their own
silo. But to be a meta-leader, leading one’s own silo is
necessary but not sufficient.
School Publishing
The base: The base of the brain is where primitive emo-
tional reactions of fight or flight are controlled. In stressful
situations, people’s natural reaction comes from the base.
(Dr. Dorn termed this as “going to the basement.”)
Person: Meta-leaders must first understand themselves
gathering information from multiple sources and perspectives. They must recognize that the situation will
change continuously and therefore must constantly get
new information and adjust their view of the situation.
They also must be able to clearly articulate the situation
for others.
3.
In a stressful situation, meta-leaders move past their
initial emotional reaction by relying on protocols.
1.
and their personal strengths and weaknesses. They must
be able to remain calm under stress and must be able to
communicate effectively.
2.
Lead across: This is the most important way in which a
meta-leader leads, which is by linking multiple pieces
together without explicit authority. Meta-leaders link
and connect.
Dr. Dorn described the brain as having three levels:
There are five dimensions to how meta-leaders respond in
crisis situations:
1.
Lead up: Meta-leaders must be able to convince those
Page 27
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Team Reporting: Conclusions from the Scenario Exercise
Speakers: Barry Dorn, MD, Associate Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, Harvard School of Public Health
Leonard Marcus, PhD, Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, Harvard School of Public Health

The Big Idea
All of the teams focused on “what do we know” and “what do
we need to know” (which continued to change as the situation
unfolded). These questions illustrated the importance of
continual information gathering, and of the need to make
decisions and to act without having perfect information.
Even knowledgeable and experienced crisis managers derived
significant value from the scenario exercise. They saw how
quickly and globally a pandemic can materialize, and were
reminded of the importance of getting the right information to
make decisions, communicating quickly and accurately, knowing
in advance which services and personnel are essential, and
being able to deal with both business issues as well as
employees’ emotional concerns.
Multiple teams discussed how the military has developed expertise in quickly forming teams to gather information. It was
suggested that there be a designated person who in the midst
of a crisis owns the information-gathering process.
Quick Summary:

• A crisis can occur in the blink of an eye.
• That’s why advanced planning is critical. This should include
developing relationships with local officials, defining what
and who are essential, developing advanced communication
plans, and performing exercises.
` Response team composition: In deciding who should be on
the response team, representatives from many functions
were included (operations, HR, finance, IT, security,
communications, etc.). It was determined that there also
needs to be a medical expert involved who can interpret
medical information. In addition, legal needs to be represented, as actions taken could expose a company to liability.
Context
` Response team leadership: It was felt that someone from
operations was likely to be the best leader of this team.
Conference participants were divided into four groups and
became members of the “Acme Valve Company Crisis Response
Team.” In this scenario, after traveling in Asia, Acme’s CEO fell ill
and then became the first person in the U.S. to die from avian
flu. The response team received information at different points
and was forced to work together to make a series of decisions.
` HR representation: It was concluded that having someone
on the response team focused on the human perspective—
the perspective of employees—was important. This person’s
involvement on some teams drove the teams to continually
think about how to address employee concerns.
After this exercise, each team reflected on the exercise and presented the lessons learned to the larger group. Lessons from all
four groups have been synthesized in this summary.
` Succession planning: The fact the Acme’s CEO died showed
the importance of succession plans, so that it is clear who
takes control and who is the ultimate decision maker.
` Employee communication: Each team felt employee commu-
Key Learnings
nication was critical. One team emphasized the importance
of speed, so that employees heard first from the company,
not from media sources like CNN. Another team talked
about the need for communication plans to be developed
in advance and for consistent communications.
The crisis ramped up incredibly fast.
People often think they will have ample time to anticipate and
get ready for a pandemic. But in this scenario—which participants acknowledged as “worst case” but as having the potential to be real—the executive had been in Asia, came back, fell
ill, and then died. The CDC investigated, schools were closed,
and the WHO elevated the alert level to phase 6—all in a
matter of hours.
Communication should state: 1) what the company knows;
2) what action the company is taking; and 3) what each
employee needs to do. It is important to give employees
specific action steps. Also, even though this entire event
took place in Atlanta, most of the teams mentioned the
need to communicate with employees globally.
The exercise caused some chaos, confusion, and required
immediate decision making. Participants realized that when a
pandemic does occur, it could escalate seemingly immediately,
and could become global virtually instantaneously.
School Publishing
The scenario brought to light the criticality of multiple
“people” issues.
The key people issues identified were:
• In addressing having and executing continuity plans, companies must not overlook the human/emotional side of a
crisis. Again, this means fast, accurate communication.

Each group placed great emphasis on the need to
understand the situation.
Page 28
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA

` Having policies around TAMIFLU. One team raised the
It was essential to have a plan, and to proceed to
execute that plan.
question of whether or not to administer TAMIFLU and to
which employees. This illustrated the need for clear policies
developed in advance and defined processes for how to
prescribe and distribute the drug.
While the scenario didn’t provide a plan, most participants
assumed that the company would have a plan in place.
Several teams commented about the difficulty of getting the
team to focus on executing the plan, as team members were
pulled in different directions. Among the key aspects of the
plan that were highlighted:
` Storing food and water. Quarantining employees was a
possibility discussed by most groups, and as part of the
scenario one employee’s family didn’t want him to come
home and infect them. This illustrated the need for the plan
to have adequate stockpiles of food and water available.
` Having relationships with local officials. Some teams were
surprised when in the scenario the mayor announced that
schools were closed. They hadn’t felt it a priority to be in
touch with local officials. Another team had viewed this as a
priority, but doubted that local officials would take Acme’s
call. Both perspectives illustrated the need to forge local
relationships well in advance of a crisis.
` Conducting exercises. This exercise showed participants the
importance of conducting exercises. At times, emotions ran
high, decision-making processes were unclear, and decisions
had to be made with imperfect information. It was hoped
that organizations that aren’t engaging in scenarios will see
the value of this exercise and will begin doing so.
` Defining “essential.” Even though the scenario only
presumed the death of one person, each team realized the
magnitude of the situation and its potential to dramatically
disrupt Acme’s business. Each team discussed the need to
have clear definitions of which services and personnel were
essential. The scenario also involved a business decision
regarding whether or not to fill a new and significant contract. All of the teams prioritized serving current customers
ahead of new customers.

Several groups commented that participants seemed to
gravitate towards either the business issues—i.e., execution,
continuity, and the plan itself—or they tended to focus on the
human and emotional concerns.
It was clear to participants that a real-world pandemic would
be even more emotional than this exercise and would require
that leaders not just execute the plan but also deal with the
emotional needs of employees. They would have to sense
their employees’ emotions and be able to respond genuinely
and authentically.
` Social distancing/working from home. Several teams
wrestled with whether or not to implement social-distancing
strategies, and how to implement them. These conversations showed the importance of advance planning about
equipping key personnel to be able to communicate with
each other and work from home.
School Publishing
The scenario illustrated the need for leaders to deal
with both business and emotional needs.
Page 29
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Boston, MA
Predictable Surprises: Blind Spots in Pandemic Planning
Speaker: Max H. Bazerman, Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School
The Big Idea
“The 9/11 attacks were a shock, but they should
not have come as a surprise.”
Like Hurricane Katrina and 9/11, an influenza pandemic is a
predictable surprise—an event that ample evidence points to
but that few act upon, owing to barriers. What is needed is to
convince leaders (barriers notwithstanding) to pay attention
to and invest in addressing this inevitable event.
⎯ Max H. Bazerman

A future pandemic is a predictable surprise.
There is consensus in the scientific community that a future
pandemic is inevitable. The event is predictable and indeed
predicted, albeit with unknowns such as timing and severity.
The challenge for those with the certitude-creating knowledge
is to get people, especially leaders, to pay attention.
Quick Summary:
• “Predictable surprises” are occurrences that take most
people by surprise despite adequate data to predict them.
Examples are breached New Orleans levees and 9/11.
Examples of other looming predictable surprises include: frequent flier programs that have resulted in airlines’ owing more
in future tickets than the value of the airlines; climate change;
companies ignoring future financial obligations; and overharvested fisheries.
• A pandemic is a predictable surprise just waiting to happen.
• There are significant barriers to dealing with predictable
surprises: cognitive, organizational, and political.
• Acting on predictable surprises requires convincing leaders
of their likelihood and consequences, so that planning for
them will be made a priority.

Many barriers to addressing predictable surprises in
advance exist.
All predictable surprises are predicted by some individuals who
understand the facts and their implications. But these individuals face major barriers in getting others to see the necessary
evidence and make preparedness a priority. These barriers,
which combine to inhibit action, are:
Context
Professor Bazerman defined “predictable surprise,” gave
examples, described the barriers to identifying and acting on
them, and offered suggestions for overcoming these barriers.
1. Cognitive:
`
Positive illusions. People tend to think good things will
happen, and they underestimate bad events.
`
Overly discounting the future. Our society is not good
at investing now for an unclear benefit later. (For
example, an investment of $3 billion per year from
1996 on could have improved airline safety.)
`
The omission bias. People are generally blamed for
their actions but are not held accountable for inaction.
This creates a bias towards not acting.
`
Bounded awareness. This cognitive barrier exists when
people are so focused on what they’re doing that they
see little else. People can justify this by arguing that
looking for predictable surprises isn’t their
responsibility.
Key Learnings

When facts exist to predict an event but its arrival
nonetheless surprises, that’s a “predictable surprise.”
A predictable surprise is a known problem, whose predictability is supported by extensive data. If action isn’t taken to
mitigate its effects, they only worsen.
Following Hurricane Katrina President Bush said, “I don’t think
anybody anticipated the breach of the levees,” and after 9/11,
Condoleeza Rice said, “I don’t think anybody could have predicted that these people would take an airplane and slam it
into the World Trade Center.” Both quotes express the surprise of leaders in the aftermath of a catastrophic event.
However, both of these supposed surprises could have been
(and actually were) predicted by facts and experts. Multiple
studies anticipated the breach of the levees. In 1996, Vice
President Gore’s aviation security commission provided numerous facts citing the desire and ability of terrorists to board airplanes with small weapons, hijack planes, and use them to
target high-profile locations. It was also known that terrorists
had previously bombed the World Trade Center. Thus, while
these events were shocking, both could have been predicted
and neither should have been a surprise to our leaders.
School Publishing
Other cognitive barriers: egocentrism, the status quo, and
platitudes like “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
2. Organizational: Organizations aren’t structured with the
intent of identifying threats. They have silos that prevent
information sharing, and have dysfunctional incentives that
don’t provide any rewards for investing to fix problems not
even apparent. (For example, in 1996 had the Clinton
Administration proposed investing $3 billion per year and
asking air travelers to wait in line for fifteen minutes, they
Page 30
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
likely would have been criticized, not rewarded for working
to prevent a future act of terrorism.)
3.

Political: Sadly, the reality is that our country’s political
agenda is shaped by money. There is rarely a constituency donating money to politicians to get predictable
surprises on the political agenda.
Addressing a predictable surprise requires getting
leaders to pay attention.
By definition, a predictable surprise is able to be predicted—
and usually is by individuals attuned to the evidence. The
challenge they face is getting the right people to pay attention
and to act on this evidence. Ideas for getting leaders to pay
attention include:
`
Quantifying the impact of the predictable event: To make
a predictable surprise a priority and then to act, leaders
need to understand the impact and the likelihood of the
event. Those with deep knowledge of the subject matter
have to figure out how to make a compelling case.
`
Contrasting Y2K and 9/11: Most people would view Y2K
as a predictable surprise that garnered significant attention and investment to address it. Some people argue that
excess and unnecessary investment occurred. Yet even if
there was over-investment, contrast this with the gross
under-investment in airport security and the catastrophic
consequences of 9/11. Slightly overspending in the face
of a predictable surprise might result in criticism of
wasted funds, but ignoring or underspending on a
predictable surprise can have dire results.
Ultimately, leaders will need to be courageous to invest in
addressing predictable surprises, as the amount of investment
will be clear (for example, $50 to $100 billion per year is required for the United States to comply with the Kyoto Protocol
measures to address climate change) but the returns—in
terms of the amount and the timing of them—will not be
certain.
School Publishing
Page 31
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The Fractured Supply Chain: Assessing Vulnerabilities
Moderator:
Julia Kirby, Senior Editor, Harvard Business Review
Speakers:
Andrew Beahm, Assistant Treasurer, L.L. Bean
Edward J. Gabriel, Global Director, Crisis Management, The Walt Disney Company
Jack McKlveen, Corporate Crisis Manager, UPS
Dr. Yossi Sheffi, Professor of Engineering Systems, Director, Center for Transportation and Logistics, MIT;
Author, The Resilient Enterprise
The Big Idea
` System dependency: Supply chains today rely totally on IT
systems. If the Internet were unavailable or a brown-out
compromised electricity supply, operating IT systems would
become impossible, hampering the supply chain.
In a pandemic, supply chain disruptions are certain. Mitigating
them entails: leveraging existing disaster response structures;
extending planning to incorporate suppliers; modeling demand
to understand what needs to be supplied; and flexibility.
Accordingly, disaster planners must consider: 1) alternatives
to a domestic supply chain for some critical products; 2)
building stockpiles of critical items; and 3) developing system
redundancy and work-around communication solutions.
Quick Summary:
• Supply chains today are global, lean, and IT dependent.
This makes them efficient, but amplifies disruptions.

• The systems and structures companies have created for
business continuity need to be leveraged in a pandemic.
The panelists agreed that it doesn’t make sense to create a
separate response infrastructure just for a pandemic. Companies are thinking about enterprise risk management
broadly; and the activities related to disaster recovery,
business continuity, and crisis response all are converging.
• Dealing with the effects of a pandemic on the supply chain
requires modeling demand.
• Supply chain disaster planning must extend to a company’s
suppliers.
• Building flexibility, and processes and capabilities for quick
response to changing demand are important in a crisis, but
also create competitive advantage on a day-to-day basis.
“You want pandemic planning to be part of the
normal planning process.”
⎯ Jack McKlveen
Much of the preparation that is necessary for a pandemic
is general in nature. In Mr. Gabriel’s view, this preparation
includes: an organizational structure that connects people;
communications systems that allow key personnel to be
connected from home; information about who the key players
are in the response process; and a response structure that
includes local, national, and even international governments.
This structure and its key relationships need to be developed
and tested in advance of a crisis.
Context
This panel of supply chain experts discussed the effects of a
pandemic on the supply chain and what can be done to mitigate
these effects.
Key Learnings

The same characteristics that make supply chains
efficient make them vulnerable in a crisis.
“You never want to exchange business cards during
the emergency. You want to put the structure and
relationships in place and test them over and over.”
Professor Sheffi described several characteristics common to
most modern supply chains:
⎯ Edward J. Gabriel
` Global: Most supply chains today are global, with outsourc-

ing, off-shoring, and components made around the world.
This increases efficiency and decreases costs, but can increase risk and disruption in the event of border closures.
Understanding a pandemic’s effect on the supply chain
requires anticipating the impact on demand.
Both Mr. Beahm from L.L. Bean and Mr. McKlveen from UPS
explained that knowing what to supply in a pandemic will be
driven by what customers demand. Both companies have
invested significant time and resources to model various
scenarios on how demand could be affected.
` Lean: Companies have optimized their supply chains by just-
in-time production and lean operations. They hold minimum
inventory and have minimal slack. This lack of slack is manifested in lean manufacturing and transportation capacity,
and little redundancy. While lean works great in a stable,
predictable world, it creates vulnerability if a hiccup occurs.
School Publishing
Pandemic planning should leverage existing structures
used for disaster planning and business continuity.
At UPS, they have looked at a potential decrease in B2B shipments as business activity declines, but an increase in B2C
Page 32
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA

deliveries as consumers increase their orders for products
delivered to their homes. They also believe that in the early
stages of a pandemic demand for overnight deliveries could
increase. UPS uses these estimates of demand to plan the
resources that would be required to supply the necessary
services. UPS is comfortable with its preparation level for a
moderate pandemic, but in a severe pandemic "all bets would
be off” as the government could make unusual demands or
even commandeer its resources.
Professor Sheffi said that investing in the capabilities needed
to respond properly in a crisis is wise from a business standpoint, as those are the same capabilities to perform well in a
competitive marketplace. A crisis such as a pandemic creates
uncertainty—but so do rapidly changing market conditions
and new competitors. Companies flexible enough to respond
quickly to demand changes, whatever their cause, will fare
better in a pandemic and flourish in normal circumstances.
Professor Sheffi contended that, “Investments in security and
resiliency are good for business in general. Companies that
are run well day-to-day are also run well in a crisis.”
L.L. Bean has also modeled demand, looking at variables such
as a pandemic’s intensity, geography (is it global? just in Asia?
more heavily in the United States?), and timing. The company
—which anticipates that in a pandemic demand for its products would immediately decline by 40%—has thought about
demand on a product basis, looking at which products, sizes,
and colors would be demanded. The levels of demand that are
anticipated will drive decisions on what to market, what to
produce, where to produce it, and how much to produce. (L.L.
Bean has also modeled scenarios where a pandemic: 1) hits
Asia but not the United States—having minimal impact on
demand but a significant impact on supply—and 2) is strong
in the United States but not in Asia, hurting demand and
resulting in inventories building up.)
“The process for fast response to changing
demand is good in a pandemic and is good for
creating a sustainable competitive advantage.”
⎯ Dr. Yossi Sheffi
Professor Sheffi gave an example of how aggregating can
provide greater flexibility. For example, in a community, it is
difficult to know which hospital will need the most surgical
gloves; it is easier to estimate the total amount of gloves
needed in the community. Instead of providing some supplies
to each hospital, it might make the most sense to aggregate
the supplies and then provide them to the hospital that needs
them. This minimizes total inventory and achieves greater
system flexibility. (The example applies in a corporate setting
as well.)
“We look at demand per item and look at ‘What are
our key products?’ By just focusing on a limited
number of key products we can reduce complexity.”
⎯ Andrew Beahm
Professor Sheffi noted that in a crisis consumers’ expectations
decline. A customer who previously wanted a package delivered by 8:00 a.m. would be happy just to get it the next day;
a customer who had wanted a red shirt might be content with
any color in the right size.

Investing in capabilities for resiliency and flexibility
is good business.

Disaster planning forces a company to rethink its
supplier strategy and the readiness of suppliers.
Having multiple suppliers may seem like a safer strategy but
it raises the question, “If a supplier has limited inventory in a
crisis, which of their customers will get it?” Some companies
may prefer instead to have close partnerships with a single
area supplier who gives preferential treatment.
Look at service companies. Professor Sheffi recommended
that participants look at and learn good practices from service
companies like UPS. Since these companies don’t have a
physical product, they have to become very good at delivering
their service amidst constant disruptions.
Regardless of the supplier strategy chosen, companies need
to understand their suppliers’ level of preparedness and work
together with them to put in place clear crisis response plans.
School Publishing
Page 33
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Boston, MA
Reputation and Communication:
Moderator:
David E. Bell, PhD, George M. Moffett Professor of Agriculture and Business, Harvard Business School
Speakers:
Leslie Gaines-Ross, Chief Reputation Officer, Weber-Shandwick
Thomas Hawkins, MD, Medical Director, Health Informatics, Blue Cross Blue Shield Massachusetts
Jay McQuaide, Director of Internal Communications, Blue Cross Blue Shield Massachusetts
BCBSMA established a business continuity team, which over
a few months developed a detailed pandemic plan and timeline. This timeline (Exhibit 1 on page 46) establishes stages,
which correspond to the stages set by the federal government. The timeline describes exactly what will happen at each
stage, and the triggers that result in moving from one stage to
another. The level of specificity includes “who calls whom.”
The Big Idea
How organizations perform and communicate in a crisis can have
a long-term reputational effect. Integrating communication plans
as part of an overall pandemic plan is a necessity; it makes
communication more proactive, assures communication to all
stakeholders (i.e., employees, customers, the public, etc.), and
improves the chances of strengthening, not weakening, an
organization’s reputation.
“In creating it [the pandemic event timeline] we
realized it wasn’t possible to be too explicit.”
⎯ Dr. Thomas Hawkins
Quick Summary:

• In response to questions from its largest customers, Blue
Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts (BCBSMA) has developed a detailed pandemic plan with phases and triggers.
BCBSMA realizes that communication plays a critical role at
each stage of a pandemic, including the current planning
stage. And communication is critical to each of BCBSMA’s
stakeholders—employees, employers, consumers, providers,
investors, the community, etc. The triggers for the overall
pandemic plan also serve to trigger specific communications
for different stakeholders.
• Communication to all stakeholders is a key part of this plan.
• How communicators communicate is critical. Communication
in a crisis must be candid, credible, and transparent.
• How companies respond in a crisis can make or break their
reputation. Planning improves performance and the chances
of emerging with a positive reputation.
But communicating only reactively isn’t adequate. Even in advance of a pandemic, BCBSMA is communicating proactively
with employees; once the plan is fully approved and in place,
it will also share the information with employers and other
stakeholders as well. Among the communication already
taking place: an intranet site focused on pandemic planning;
a statement from the CEO saying that BCBSMA will definitely
stay in business and continue to operate during a pandemic;
and articles about pandemic.
Context
This panel focused on why communication in a pandemic—
both internal and external—is so important, how to prepare to
communicate effectively, and the risks of not doing so. The
panelists from BCBSMA—Massachusetts’ largest insurer—shared
their pandemic plans and the process used to develop them.
“You have to be proactive in communicating with
employees. They have to know what’s going on.”
Key Learnings

⎯ Jay McQuaide
BCBSMA has developed a detailed pandemic event
timeline to guide its actions and communications.

Beginning eighteen months ago, BCBSMA began getting questions from its large-employer customers about its pandemic
plans. BCBSMA hadn’t communicated its plans to these customers, who wanted to understand BCBSMA’s plans to
continue operations. The reality was that BCBSMA didn’t have
much to communicate, as it hadn’t fully engaged in pandemic
planning. These questions from customers spurred action.
In a crisis, communication must be candid, credible,
and transparent.
The panelists agreed that not only is it important to communicate, but the manner in which communication takes place is
vital. Any person or stakeholder realizes that a CEO or company spokesperson may not have all of the facts about a
situation. What is expected is that any communication in a
crisis be credible, which requires candor and transparency.
Ms. Gaines-Ross said that in a crisis, communicators must “
say what you know” as well as state what’s not known and
the areas of further information-gathering efforts.
“We couldn’t communicate externally until we
defined what happened at each step.”
⎯ Dr. Thomas Hawkins
School Publishing
Internal and external communications are both key
aspects of BCBSMA’s pandemic plan.
Page 34
May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA

A pandemic has the potential to dramatically alter the
reputational landscape.
How a company performs in a crisis like 9/11 or a pandemic
can have a profound effect on its reputation—among employees and the public. Mr. McQuaide said that “reputations can
change in an instant,” and Ms. Gaines-Ross raised the fact
that blogging and other Internet technologies allow rogue
employees and others to easily share information about how
a company is acting, immediately affecting its reputation.

Communications infrastructure. BCBSMA has invested in
a system that can communicate messages to all employees
via phones and email in just ten to fifteen minutes. It also has
gotten satellite phones for key employees.

Underplanned recovery. Dr. Hawkins commented that
while many organizations are focused on what they need
to do to plan for and respond to a pandemic, not enough
attention has been devoted to the recovery phase following a
pandemic, which can affect reputations as well. He said, “You
may perform well in a crisis and then fail in the recovery,
which would botch your reputation.”

CEO blogs. Ms. Gaines-Ross said that blogs may be an easy
and effective way for corporate leaders to communicate in a
crisis. Currently, about 15% of Fortune 100 CEOs have blogs.
She advises the other 85%—and CEOs of smaller companies—
to become familiar with blog technology so they can utilize
this communications vehicle in a crisis.

Investor communications. Ms. Gaines-Ross believes that
during and in the immediate aftermath of a pandemic, similar
to 9/11, there will be a short period when the interests of
shareholders will be suspended due to the gravity of the
situation. But this will pass when operations resume, and
shareholders will then be keenly interested in how companies
are recovering.

60-day supply of meds. Part of BCBSMA’s pandemic plan
involves going to a sixty-day supply of medications of some
prescriptions (as suggested in federal government guidelines).
The challenge is working to enable pharmaceutical benefit
managers and retail pharmacies to execute this plan.
“A pandemic will be like a neutron bomb for
[corporate] reputations.”
⎯ Leslie Gaines-Ross
She also noted that great companies are under greater scrutiny as they are expected to behave admirably; when they
don’t, they are crucified. At the same time, crises present an
opportunity for small companies to shine.
Companies are well served to prepare carefully for a crisis—
to think through what their reputation is and what their customers and the public expect from them, as well as to
rehearse their CEOs and spokespeople.
BCBSMA has a very strong reputation, realizes that in a pandemic expectations will be high among all stakeholders, and
that it has much at stake and much to lose. BCBSMA anticipates that a pandemic will bring much dissatisfaction among
members as the health care system is overwhelmed. The
company believes that initially its reputation will be affected
by the ability to provide customer service through answering
phones and paying claims. But as the pandemic progresses,
its reputation will be most affected by the actions of individual
employees in how they respond in human interactions that
support the community.
School Publishing
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Biographies
Session 1 - Key Conference Themes
Session 2 – Pandemic on the Horizon:
The Public Health Realities
Eric McNulty
Managing Director, Conferences
Harvard Business School Publishing
Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School;
Editor-in-Chief, Harvard Health Publications
Eric J. McNulty is Managing Director of Conferences for Harvard
Business School Publishing (HBSP). In this role he is responsible
for the company’s global conference and event business. His
primary responsibility is editorial development and he oversees
production and marketing of both virtual and in-person programs. Eric has also written for Harvard Business Review,
Harvard Management Update, Strategy & Innovation, the Boston
Business Journal, and Worthwhile magazine. He was editor of
HBSP’s Innovation Alert e-newsletter for two years and has
worked with such thought leaders as Clayton Christensen, Vijay
Govindarajan, Gary Hamel, Chan Kim, and Renée Mauborgne
through HBSP events.
Anthony Komaroff is the Steven P. Simcox/Patrick A. Clifford/
James H. Higby Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School,
Senior Physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston,
and Editor-in-Chief of Harvard Health Publications. He was Director of the Division of General Medicine and Primary Care at
Brigham and Women’s Hospital for fifteen years and is the
Founding Editor of Journal Watch, a summary medical information newsletter for physicians published by the Massachusetts
Medical Society/New England Journal of Medicine.
A practicing physician, Dr. Komaroff also teaches clinical medicine as well as clinical research methods. He currently serves as
an advisory board member for the Department of Health and
Human Services and for the Institute of Medicine of the National
Academy of Sciences. He is the author of over 200 journal
articles and book chapters and of one book. In recognition of his
accomplishments, Dr. Komaroff has been elected as a Fellow of
the American College of Physicians and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Prior to joining HBSP, Eric was principal and founder of PM
Collaborative—a marketing strategy consultancy serving clients
such as Infiniti Motor Corporation, Legal Sea Foods, Cybersmith,
and others. Previously he served in management and marketing
roles at European Travel & Life magazine, Mark Cross, and
Bloomingdale’s.
Session 1 – Potential Economic Impact of Pandemic
Aaron Desmond
Director, Licensing and New Business Development,
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist,
BMO Capital Markets
Mr. Desmond is the director of licensing and new business development at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
Dr. Sherry Cooper leads a top-ranked economics team and has
been repeatedly cited as one of the most influential women in
Canada. Sherry was named one of 25 Women to Watch in U.S.
Banker magazine’s annual ranking of the Most Powerful Women
in Banking. Among her research interests are the economic
impact of pandemic, macroeconomic forecasting, and financial
markets, and she is now writing a book regarding the aging
boomers’ influence on the global economy.
He previously worked at a marketing firm performing a variety
of functions, including managing the production and distribution
of a monthly communication to executives across more than fifty
divisions of a $19 billion company. He ran his own web marketing and consulting company, with the primary revenue stream
generated through an international sweepstakes boasting more
than 120,000 subscribers. Mr. Desmond has experience in
business planning and development, opportunity recognition,
market research, web development, marketing, and law.
Dr. Cooper has an MA and PhD in economics from the University
of Pittsburgh and began her career in the economics research
department of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.,
covering monetary policy and financial institutions. She then
joined the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)
as director of financial economics. Since 1983, she has been
chief economist of BMO Nesbitt Burns, and in February 2007
was appointed to her current role in BMO Financial Group.
School Publishing
He serves on the board of directors for two nonprofit organizations, chairing marketing and membership committees. He
graduated from the University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, Minnesota, with a BA in business administration, concentrating in
entrepreneurship and a legal studies minor.
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Boston, MA
Wendy Everett, ScD
Dr. Rosenthal has been extensively involved as a volunteer with
the American Cancer Society. He is past president and a current
representative of the New England Division Board of Directors.
At the Society’s national level, Dr. Rosenthal is a member of the
National Assembly, and serves on numerous committees.
President, New England Healthcare Institute
Dr. Everett was appointed the first president of the New England
Healthcare Institute (NEHI) in July 2002. NEHI was established
to identify realistic strategies for improving health care quality
while reducing health care costs. Dr. Everett directs a team that
conducts independent research leading to evidence-based public
and private health policy recommendations. She has held executive positions at UCSF Medical Center and Boston’s Brigham
and Women’s Hospital. She directed a national program for The
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and was the program director
for the national program in health promotion and disease prevention for the Kaiser Family Foundation. In the mid-1990s, she
became a director of the Institute for the Future, overseeing the
creation of forecasts in health/health care. She is a trustee of
many health care and philanthropic boards. Dr. Everett holds
two bachelor’s of science degrees and master’s and doctoral
degrees in health policy and management from Harvard
University.
Dr. Rosenthal has received a number of awards including the
American Cancer Society’s St. George Medal in 1988 in recognition of outstanding contributions to the control of cancer.
Session 3 – Critical Response:
Beyond Functional Expertise
Eddie Erlandson, PhD
Senior Vice President, Work Ethic Corporation;
Co-Author, The Alpha Male Syndrome
Eddie Erlandson brings a unique background as a physician and
business leader to helping executives make needed changes.
He uses his understanding of the science of stress and change,
drawing on twenty-five years’ experience as a vascular surgeon
and co-founder of a Wellness program. He uses the technique
of Resets to help people modulate their own physiology for
enhanced and sustained impact as a leader. He models his
commitment to fitness by participating in over fifty marathons
and ultra-marathons. He has worked with executive teams
across a number of industries, including high tech, pharmaceuticals, hospitals, services, government, and sports.
Carter Mecher, MD
Director of Medical Preparedness Policy,
White House Homeland Security Council
Dr. Carter Mecher is currently detailed from the Department of
Veterans Affairs to the White House Homeland Security Council
and served as a member of the White House National Strategy
for Pandemic Influenza Writing and Implementation Team.
Frances Johnston, PhD
Dr. Mecher was appointed Chief Medical Officer for the Veterans
Health Administration’s (VHA) Southeast Network in January
1996. As Chief Medical Officer, he is responsible for VA healthcare services in Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina. The VA
Southeast Network includes eight VA medical centers, state and
contract nursing homes, outpatient clinics, contracted private
sector healthcare providers, shared services with medical schools
and the military, and Vet Centers. The Network has more than
10,000 employees and an operating budget of nearly $2 billion.
Co-Chair and Managing Director, Teleos Leadership Institute
Dr. Frances Johnston co-founded the Teleos Leadership Institute
with Annie McKee in January 2001. Their vision: a values-based,
professional consulting firm that provides services in both the
private and public sectors that encourages and develops valuesbased leadership around the world.
One area of Dr. Johnston’s expertise is innovative design and
execution of workshops, long-term programs, and retreats that
support leadership development and transformation, Emotional
Intelligence, improving group dynamics, and organizational
renewal. She also works internationally with senior executives
as an advisor. Dr. Johnston serves on the faculty of the Gestalt
Institute of Cleveland and teaches at the Wharton School’s
Aresty Institute of Executive Education.
Dr. Mecher received his undergraduate degree from the University of Illinois and his medical degree from Chicago Medical
School. He completed a residency and fellowship in critical care
medicine at Los Angeles County University of Southern
California.
David S. Rosenthal, MD
Director, Harvard University Health Services
Dr. Johnston received her doctorate from Temple University in
adult and organizational development. She received her master’s
in sports psychology from Temple University. She received her
undergraduate degree in English Literature from the University
of Pennsylvania. She is associate editor of the first-ever
Encyclopedia of Women in Sport in America (1999).
David S. Rosenthal, MD, Past President, American Cancer Society, is director of Harvard University Health Services and Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School. Dr. Rosenthal also
serves as a senior physician at Brigham & Women’s Hospital,
Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital, and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston. He is the Henry K. Oliver Professor of Hygiene at
Harvard University. A graduate of Harvard College, Dr. Rosenthal
received his degree from Tufts University School of Medicine.
School Publishing
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Session 4 – CEO Perspective
the legal aspects of emergency preparedness and response
issues in the event of disasters.
George B. Abercrombie
Gravely currently serves as Special Counsel for Emergency
Preparedness & Response for the Virginia Office of Attorney
General. He also advises the Secure Commonwealth Panel,
Health & Medical Sub-Panel on legal aspects of preparedness
issues. And, in 2004, he authored the comprehensive rewrites of
Virginia laws on quarantine and isolation. Gravely has also coauthored several extensive articles on emergency preparedness.
Chief Executive Officer, Roche North America
George B. Abercrombie joined Roche in January 2001 and leads
the company’s North American Pharmaceuticals Operations,
which include Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. in Nutley, New Jersey,
and the Canadian affiliate Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. Previously,
Abercrombie was senior vice president of U.S. commercial operations at Glaxo Wellcome, with responsibilities encompassing
pharmaceutical sales and marketing, electronic commerce, the
U.S. managed care system, disease management, business
planning and development, and late-stage clinical drug studies.
He joined Glaxo as vice president and general manager of the
Glaxo Pharmaceuticals Division in 1993 following ten years at
Merck, where he held a broad range of positions in sales,
marketing, executive sales management, and business development. He began his career as a pharmacist after receiving a
bachelor’s degree in pharmacy from the University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill and then earned an MBA from Harvard
University. He has served on many boards and organizations.
Gravely is an active member of many groups dedicated to the
health care industry. Prior to becoming an attorney, Gravely
worked in hospital operations. He received his master’s of
science in health administration from the Medical College of
Virginia and earned his JD from the University of Richmond.
Scott Rosenstein
Health Analyst, Eurasia Group
Scott Rosenstein is a global health analyst in the transnational
issues practice. He specializes in the politics and management
of global health issues and their impact on economic and state
stability.
Session 5 – Executive Preparedness:
Best Practices Briefing
Prior to joining Eurasia Group, Scott served as a research associate in the global health program at the Council on Foreign
Relations where he looked at the intersection of health and
foreign policy issues such as avian influenza and HIV/AIDS.
Previous international research experience includes projects in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, and
El Salvador.
Paul Hemp (moderator)
Paul Hemp is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review, where
he edits and writes articles on a variety of topics, including
issues involving health care management. He is the author of
“Presenteeism: At Work—But Out of It” (Harvard Business
Review, October 2004), which looks at the significant hidden
drain on productivity caused by employees who are on the job
but not fully functioning because of illness or other medical
condition, including minor ailments such as allergies. Other
articles include “My Week as a Room Service Waiter at the Ritz”
(June 2002), “Avatar-Based Marketing” (June 2006), and “Are
You Ready for E-tailing 2.0?” (October 2006). He has appeared
as a commentator on business issues for CNN, CNBC, and the
BBC and as a panelist at such conferences as the Yale CEO
Leadership Summit and the SXSW Interactive Festival. Previously, Mr. Hemp was the director of publications at Mercer
Management Consulting in Boston, a writer and editor at The
Boston Globe, and a reporter at The Wall Street Journal in
London and Brussels. He is a graduate of Whitman College
and Harvard Law School.
Scott’s master’s thesis looked at post-conflict health care reconstruction in Bosnia and he has published pieces on the linkages
between HIV and National Security, the politics of the polio epidemic in Nigeria, and global governance of infectious diseases.
Scott has a Bachelor of Arts degree from Amherst College, a
Master’s Degree in Public Health from Yale University, and a
Master of Arts in International Relations from Yale University.
Jeff Seglin
Associate Professor, Emerson College;
Syndicated Ethics Columnist, New York Times Syndicate
Jeffrey L. Seglin writes “The Right Thing,” a syndicated weekly
column on ethics. He is the author of The Right Thing: Con-
science, Profit and Personal Responsibility in Today’s Business,
named as one of the “Best Business Books of 2003” by the
Library Journal. He also authored The Good, the Bad, and Your
Steven D. Gravely
Practice Group Leader, Health Care Practice;
Troutman Sanders LLP
Business: Choosing Right When Ethical Dilemmas Pull You Apart.
Seglin is an associate professor at Emerson College in Boston.
He was an ethics fellow at the Poynter Institute for Media
Studies in 2001 and a resident fellow at the Center for the Study
of Values in Public Life at Harvard in 1998-99. He lectures widely
Steven Gravely is a partner with Troutman Sanders LLP and
serves as practice group leader of its health care practice.
Gravely specializes in helping clients consider and prepare for
School Publishing
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Boston, MA
on business ethics and is the author or co-author of more than a
dozen books on business and writing, in addition to having written for numerous publications. He holds a master’s degree in
theological studies from The Divinity School at Harvard
University.
Daniel A. Sharp (moderator)
Worldwide Principal, Business Resilience Unisys Corporation;
Founding CEO/President, Royal Institution World Science
Assembly (RiSci)
Mr. Sharp is the founding CEO/President of The Royal Institution
World Science Assembly (RiSci). RiSci has focused on global
pandemic preparedness for the past three years, working with
leading international organizations, governments, businesses,
and non-profits, and including global experts in science and
policy. Mr. Sharp also consults with companies and organizations, applying his expertise in crisis preparedness and developing systems to monitor the external business environment
for risks and opportunities.
Richard H. Wilkins, DO, MPH, FAOCOPM
General Manager, Health and Medical Services,
Chevron Corporation
Dr. Richard Wilkins is General Manager, Health and Medical Services, for Chevron Corporation, and is Chevron’s chief medical
officer. He oversees the design and implementation of programs
and services to meet the health and medical needs of the company’s 53,000 employees, and addresses health and medical
services associated with operations.
For fifty years Sharp was president and CEO of The American
Assembly, a national public affairs institution. Mr. Sharp was with
Xerox Corporation for twenty years, where he directed international activities, designed and ran their external business
environment assessment, negotiated with foreign governments,
and advised on strategy.
Prior to joining Chevron, Dr. Wilkins served in a variety of positions in the ExxonMobil Corporation. Dr. Wilkins holds several
degrees: a master’s of public health degree from Medical College
of Wisconsin; a doctorate degree in osteopathic medicine from
Michigan State University College of Osteopathic Medicine; a BS
in medicine from Western Michigan University; and a BA in
biology from State University of New York in Buffalo.
He has consulted with other corporations on their global strategy
and issues management. He has a JD from Harvard Law School
and a BA in International Relations from the University of
California.
Dr. Wilkins is a Fellow of the American Osteopathic College of
Occupational and Preventive Medicine and has numerous
additional post-doctoral training and certification achievements.
Session 7 – Medical Realities: What to Expect
Session 6 – Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
For Full Bio, See Session 2
John M. Barry
Author, The Great Influenza:
The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History
Jonathan L. Burstein, MD
Assistant Professor of Medicine,
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
John M. Barry is a prize-winning and New York Times bestselling author of five books. A member of an advisory board to
the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and a
federal government Infectious Disease Board of Experts, he has
advised federal, state and World Health Organization officials on
pandemic influenza and bioterrorism. After Hurricane Katrina, he
chaired a bipartisan working group on flood control to develop
legislative proposals. He is also co-originator of Riversphere, a
$125 million research center being developed by Tulane University that will be the first facility in the world to study rivers in
a comprehensive way. He is currently Distinguished Visiting
Scholar at the Center for Bioenvironmental Research of Tulane
and Xavier Universities.
Dr. Burstein is assistant professor of medicine (emergency medicine) at Harvard Medical School. He received his BA in biochemistry from Columbia College, Columbia University and his MD
from Harvard Medical School. After completing his residency at
SUNY Stony Brook in emergency medicine where he was chief
resident, he was a fellow in clinical effectiveness at the Harvard
School of Public Health.
Since 2000, Dr. Burstein has been assistant professor of medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston. He is a
current or former member of numerous professional associations
and committees, including many dealing with disaster and emergency medicine and management. An author of a number of
peer-reviewed publications, Dr. Burstein serves as a consultant
to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Barry graduated from Brown University. Before writing his first
book, he coached major college football then spent ten years as
a journalist covering national politics and economics.
School Publishing
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Robert M. Honigberg, MD
Dr. Zane attended Temple University School of Medicine graduating in 1993 and went on to specialty training in Emergency
Medicine at The Johns Hopkins Hospital. He has been at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School since
1998.
Chief Medical Director, GE Healthcare
Dr. Honigberg is the Chief Medical Officer, Global Medical Affairs
and Clinical Strategy within the Global Technology Medical
Organization at GE Healthcare. Before joining GE Healthcare, he
was the Vice President, Worldwide Medical Affairs and Chief
Medical Officer, at Ethicon Endo-Surgery, a Johnson & Johnson
Operating Company, for seven years. He has also had the opportunity to help lead pharmaceutical research with biologics in
surgery, critical care, oncology, hepatology, and HIV at Ortho
Biotech and Schering-Plough. Bob undertook his internship and
residency in surgery at Montefiore Hospital and the Albert
Einstein College of Medicine in New York City. His educational
background includes a BA in Economics at Duke University, MD
from Northwestern University Medical School, and an MBA from
the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Business.
Session 8 – A New Perspective on Risk
Michael Evangelides
Principal, Human Capital, Deloitte Consulting LLP
As a principal in Deloitte’s Chicago consulting practice, Mike has
over eighteen years’ experience in leading large transformation
initiatives and developing specific strategies to improve people
and organizational performance for his clients. He is Deloitte’s
regional practice leader for their Organization and Change
service line, national leader of Deloitte’s Pandemic Preparedness
service offering, and leads Deloitte’s internal team developing
their own pandemic response strategies and tactics. Over the
past two years, Mike has written and presented frequently on
corporate pandemic planning and preparedness and has
conducted a great deal of research on the topic.
Doug Quarry, MD
Medical Director, International SOS Online
Dr. Quarry is an Australian-trained medical doctor with a BS
degree in medicine and surgery from Monash University in
Victoria, Australia and a MS degree in community health from
the University of Manitoba, Canada. He has been with International SOS for over ten years, previously serving as the
medical director of the International SOS Singapore region.
Mike received his BA in mathematics from Alma College and
his MBA in policy studies and finance from the University of
Chicago’s Graduate School of Business.
After losing their first son, Gus, to a malignant brain tumor, Mike
and his wife, Eleanor, founded The Gus Foundation that raises
money for pediatric brain tumor research and treatment.
Dr. Quarry currently leads the company’s effort to help its clients
make thorough pandemic preparedness plans, mainly via a
broad range of consulting services but also through detailed
websites and email. International SOS has consulted with over
100 multinational companies regarding the development of their
pandemic plans, and over 350 clients subscribe to the International SOS Pandemic Information Service.
Karen DeToro (moderator)
Manager, Actuarial & Insurance Solutions Practice,
Deloitte Consulting
Karen has thirteen years of experience in the life insurance
industry, working in consulting firms and insurance companies.
Her focus is on financial reporting, and her experience includes
financial reporting redesign, mergers and acquisitions, and
demutualizations for life insurers.
As medical director of International SOS Online Services, Dr.
Quarry’s team develops and maintains all the medical content
used on International SOS websites and in the various International SOS Online services.
Richard D. Zane, MD
At Deloitte, Karen has applied her quantitative skills as an
actuary to the problem of assessing and quantifying risk for
companies. Deloitte’s value-based Enterprise Risk Management
approach helps companies understand the financial impacts of
specific risks to their operations, and the costs and benefits of
various risk mitigation strategies, allowing management to
prioritize and address the risks their companies face.
Vice Chairman, Department of Emergency Medicine, Brigham
and Women’s Hospital; Faculty, Harvard Medical School
Dr. Richard Zane is vice chair of the department of emergency
medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and on the faculty at
Harvard Medical School. He serves as medical director for emergency preparedness and bio-defense and director of pre-hospital
care for Partners Healthcare. Dr. Zane has had extensive experience in designing systems of pre-hospital care and disaster
response and has been an advisor to the Massachusetts Deparment of Public Health, Department of Homeland Security, and
the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on issues of
hospital emergency preparedness. In his role as director of prehospital care, Dr. Zane oversees the transfer and transportation
of over 50,000 ambulance patients per year.
School Publishing
Karen holds a BA in Mathematics and English Literature from
Butler University and an MBA in Organizational Behavior and
Strategy from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at
Northwestern University. Karen is a Fellow of the Society of
Actuaries and a member of the American Academy of Actuaries.
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Boston, MA
Session 9 – The Stricken Workforce:
Keeping the Business Running
He holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Engineering from
Lafayette College, a Master of Arts in Public Administration from
Roosevelt University, and a Master of Arts in Criminal Justice
from the University of Illinois, Chicago.
Melinda Merino (moderator)
Senior Editor, Harvard Business School Press
Karen Dye, CBCP*
Global Business Continuity Manager, Sun Microsystems
Melinda Merino joined Harvard Business School Press in 2000
as a senior editor and was promoted to executive editor in 2003.
Previously she launched a new business book list at Stanfordaffiliated Consulting Psychologists Press, Davies-Black Publishing
and was a biology editor at Addison-Wesley, Benjamin
Cummings in San Francisco. She has published numerous
bestselling authors for HBS Press including Chan Kim, Renée
Mauborgne, Jeffrey Pfeffer, George Stalk, Pankaj Ghemawat,
Robert Sutton, Dave Ulrich, Sylvia Ann Hewlett, and Chris Zook.
Merino holds a BA in biology and philosophy from Colgate
University.
Karen Dye, CBCP, manages the Crisis Management, Emergency
Response, and Business Continuity Programs, based in the Risk
Management division of Sun Microsystems, Inc. She joined Sun
in July 2003, after spending the previous ten years in the corporate business continuity planning industry.
Karen is a certified business continuity planner. She earned her
undergraduate degree from the University of San Francisco and
her MBA from Pepperdine University. She is a member of the
Business Recovery Manager’s Association and previously served
on their board of directors. She is also a member of the Association of Contingency Planners and the Risk and Insurance
Management Society.
Debra Cohen, PhD
SPHR, Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM)
Debra J. Cohen, PhD, SPHR, is the Chief Knowledge Officer for
the Society for Human Resource Management where she oversees the Knowledge Development Division. Before joining SHRM
in May 2000, Dr. Cohen spent fifteen years as an academician
teaching HRM at George Washington and George Mason Universities. Dr. Cohen has published over forty articles and book
chapters and has been published in several well known journals.
Dr. Cohen remains professionally active; she is currently an
Advisory Editor for Human Resource Management journal, serves
on the editorial review boards of Human Resource Management
Review, the Journal of Management, and the Academy of
Management Learning and Education journal and does ad hoc
reviewing for Human Resource Development Quarterly. Dr.
Cohen received her PhD in Management and Human Resources
in 1987 and her Master’s Degree in Labor and Human Resources
(MLHR) in 1982, both from The Ohio State University.
Karen is a member of the editorial board for Journal of Business
Continuity and Emergency Planning and for CIDRAP (Center for
Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota)
Business Source. Since December 2005, Karen has led a crossfunctional team developing Sun’s pandemic preparedness plan.
Randy R. Smith
Head, Critical Infrastructure Assurance Branch,
U.S. Marine Corps
Randy R. Smith is a GS-15 and heads the Mission Assurance
Branch, a part of the Marine Corps’ Security Division within the
Plans, Policy and Operations Department of Headquarters, U.S.
Marine Corps. A retired Marine Officer, he served in a variety of
security and law enforcement positions with the Marine Corps.
His career included numerous tours, a deployment to the Persian
Gulf during Operations Desert Shield/Desert Storm, and a tour
as the Head of Security for the President’s Helicopter Squadron
(HMX-1). After graduating with a master’s degree from the Naval
War College, Mr. Smith reported to HQMC where he was the
Marine Corps’ Senior Law Enforcement Officer and responsible
for the Marine Corps’ antiterrorism programs. Subsequently
establishing a new Critical Infrastructure Protection program, he
incorporated these programs and others into the current Mission
Assurance Branch. His branch is currently developing pandemic
response plans for Marine Corps Bases and Installations
throughout the world.
Don Davis
Senior Vice President, Visa Corporate Services, Visa
Don Davis has been with Visa International for seven years and
is currently Senior Vice President for Visa Corporate Services. His
responsibilities include Corporate Security, Safety and Enterprise
Resiliency, as well as Real Estate, Facilities Services and Strategic Sourcing. Previously, he was Vice President of Corporate
Security.
Prior to joining Visa, Don had a twenty-eight year career in Federal Law Enforcement with the U.S. Postal Inspection Service.
When he retired in 2000, he was the Inspector in Charge of the
Northern California Field Division and was responsible for the
security of postal employees and facilities, as well as the investigation of crimes committed against the Postal Service. He served
as one of the supervisors of the Unabom Task Force.
School Publishing
Session 10 – Business Continuity and Communication
Chuck Adams
Global Consulting Practice Leader, Business Resiliency,
Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco
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May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Chuck Adams is the global leader of Cisco’s Internet Business
Solutions Group (IBSG) Business Resiliency practice. IBSG works
with the world’s leading companies and governments to help
them evolve business processes with innovative technology
adoption. The Business Resiliency practice is designed to establish thought leadership in the areas of business continuity,
security, and compliance for dual purposes. The first is the introduction of key risk-management methodologies into all IBSG
engagements. The second is continuing to mature Cisco thought
leadership to include newly evolving threats as they emerge.
Dr. Marcus is lead author of the primary text in the field,
Renegotiating Health Care: Resolving Conflict to Build Collaboration. The book was selected as co-recipient of the Center for
Public Resources Institute for Dispute Resolution 1995 Book
Prize Award for Excellence in Alternative Dispute Resolution. It
also won the Book of the Year Award from the Journal of the
American Nursing Association.
Dr. Marcus has developed a number of practical applications of
mediation and conflict resolution and has consulted to, trained,
or provided executive coaching to many leading health care
organizations.
Adams brings more than twenty years of operational risk
management and leadership experience to the organization.
Most recently, Adams has had the privilege of expanding thought
leadership in preparation for pandemic outbreak. On this topic,
he has assembled a library of lessons and preparation methods
from his direct interaction with multiple global private organizations, foreign governments, and his work with the World
Health Organization.
Session 12 – Team Reporting:
Conclusions from the Scenario Exercise
Barry Dorn, MD
For Full Bio See Session 11
Leonard Marcus, PhD
For Full Bio See Session 11
Session 11 – Team Exercise Preparation: Metaleadership
Session 13 – Predictable Surprises:
Blind Spots in Pandemic Planning
Barry Dorn, MD
Associate Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative,
Max H. Bazerman
Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration,
Barry Dorn is associate director of the Program for Health Care
Negotiation and Conflict Resolution at the Harvard School of
Public Health. He is also clinical professor of orthopedic surgery
at the Tufts University School of Medicine and has a private
orthopedic practice.
Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business
Administration at the Harvard Business School. In addition, Max
is formally affiliated with the Kennedy School of Government, the
Psychology Department, the Institute for Quantitative Social
Sciences, the Harvard University Center on the Environment, and
the Program on Negotiation. In his prior position at Kellogg, Max
was the founder and director of the Kellogg Environmental
Research Center.
Dr. Dorn is among the leaders in the development of the negotiation and conflict resolution field. He is a member of the
original faculty of the Harvard School of Public Health Program
for Health Care Negotiation and Conflict Resolution. He is a past
national co-chair of the health sector for the Society of Professionals in Dispute Resolution. A partner of Health Care Negotiation Associates, Dr. Dorn has trained many groups. He has
consulted to health systems and physician practices on acquisitions, mergers, strategic planning, and interdepartmental
facilitation. He has been able to bring together groups with
diverse interests and to build collaboration, especially in
terrorism preparedness.
Max is the author, co-author, or co-editor of sixteen books
including Negotiation Genius (with Deepak Malhotra, Bantam
Books), and Predictable Surprises (with Michael Watkins,
Harvard Business School Press, 2005), and over 180 research
articles and chapters. In 2006, Max received an honorary
doctorate from the University of London (London Business
School), the Kulp-Wright Book Award from the American Risk
and Insurance Association for Predictable Surprises, and the Life
Achievement Award from the Aspen Institute’s Business and
Society Program.
Leonard Marcus, PhD
Director, National Preparedness Leadership Initiative,
Session 14 – The Fractured Supply Chain:
Assessing Vulnerabilities
Dr. Marcus is founding director of the Program for Health Care
Negotiation and Conflict Resolution at the Harvard School of
Public Health. Nationally and internationally, he is recognized as
a pioneer and leading voice in the evolving field of negotiation
and conflict resolution as it pertains to a wide range of issues
and practical applications in health care.
School Publishing
Julia Kirby (moderator)
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May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Julia Kirby is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review, responsible for acquiring, developing, and editing articles on a monthly
basis. In her tenure at the magazine she has edited over a hundred pieces covering a wide range of topics of interest to senior
managers. She has played a particular role in shaping HBR’s
annual double issues, which appear every July and are devoted
to major business themes. In the past three years, these have
focused on the makings of a high performance organization, on
improving sales management, and on managing for the long
term. Other management topics of particular interest to Julia are
innovation and creativity, marketing strategy, supply chain operations, and the challenges facing executive women. Julia also
manages HBR’s long-standing and popular case study department, in which management experts are invited to weigh in on
fictionalized managerial dilemmas.
York City Fire Department’s Emergency Medical Service (EMS).
As Deputy Commissioner for Planning and Preparedness at the
New York City Office of Emergency Management, he served as
Commissioner for all preparedness and planning-related projects
and initiatives.
Mr. Gabriel holds a BA from the College of New Rochelle and an
MPA from Rutgers University.
Jack McKlveen
Corporate Crisis Manager, UPS
As manager of crisis management at UPS, Jack McKlveen is
responsible for the company’s global crisis prevention, preparedness, and response processes. This includes the development
and implementation of prevention programs and crisis exercises.
He is also a member of UPS’s Global Enterprise Risk Management team. McKlveen has recently coordinated UPS’s preparedness planning for a potential avian flu pandemic.
Prior to joining Harvard Business Review, Julia’s career was in
the management consulting industry. For Ernst & Young, and
later Andersen Consulting, she worked in research centers
devoted to creating next-generation consulting services and
bolstering the firm’s reputation for thought leadership. She is a
graduate of Kenyon College.
McKlveen joined UPS in 1977 as a part-time unloader while
attending Cleveland State University. Prior to his current role in
risk management, McKlveen held a number of UPS management
positions in human resources, operations, employee communications and labor relations. He worked on several acquisition
integrations while at UPS’s Supply Chain Group and led communications efforts for many of UPS’s critical initiatives. He is based
in Atlanta at UPS’s corporate headquarters.
Andrew Beahm
Assistant Treasurer, L.L. Bean
Andrew Beahm has been with L.L. Bean for nearly twenty-five
years, serving a variety of roles over that time including Vice
President, Brand Services; Director, Strategic Planning; and
(currently) Assistant Treasurer. As Assistant Treasurer, an important aspect of Andrew’s role is business contingency planning,
including Avian Flu Pandemic Preparedness. L.L. Bean has several international sourcing offices and sells, via catalogs, the
web, or retail stores to hundreds of countries across the globe.
These inter-national considerations greatly increase the complexity of avian flu pandemic planning.
Dr. Yossi Sheffi
Professor of Engineering Systems, Director, Center for Transportation and Logistics, MIT; Author of The Resilient Enterprise
Dr. Yossi Sheffi is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, where he serves as director of the MIT Center for
Transportation and Logistics. He is an expert in systems optimization, risk analysis, and supply chain management, which are
subjects he researches and teaches at MIT, at the MIT School
of Engineering, and the Sloan School of Management. He is the
author of dozens of publications and two books: a textbook on
transportation networks optimization and the recently published
Andrew holds a bachelor’s degree and an MBA from the University of Maine system. He volunteers for a number of non-profit
organizations, but also finds plenty of time to employ the gear
sold by L.L. Bean in his outdoor pursuits.
The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage. Under his leadership, the Center launched many
Edward J. Gabriel
Global Director, Crisis Management, The Walt Disney Company
new educational, research, and industry /government outreach
programs. He is the director of MIT’s Master of Engineering in
Logistics degree which he founded and launched in 1998. In
2003 he launched the MIT-Zaragoza pro-gram, building a new
logistics university in Spain. Dr. Sheffi has been recognized in
numerous ways in academic and industry forums.
Mr. Edward Gabriel is Director, Crisis Management, for The Walt
Disney Company, responsible for the development and implementation of global policy, planning, and training to manage
crisis for The Walt Disney Company. He is also responsible for
East and West Coast Medical and Emergency Medical Operations
and the Walt Disney Studio’s Fire Department. He supports and
collaborates with global business units in development and
testing of business resumption planning, and develops policies
and strategies to manage crisis.
Mr. Gabriel has been an Emergency Medical Technician since
1973 and was a twenty-seven year paramedic veteran of New
School Publishing
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May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
Session 15 – Reputation and Communication:
which provides our employer customers with population-based
reporting and data-driven suggestions for health management
and prevention interventions.
David E. Bell, PhD (moderator)
An Internist, Dr. Hawkins brings significant experience in
developing strategy and projects for comparative cost and
quality data, and extensive experience in working with accounts
and understanding their perspectives and concerns, including
six years as the New England Federal Reserve Bank’s Medical
Director.
George M. Moffett Professor of Agriculture and Business,
David E. Bell is the George M. Moffett Professor of Agriculture
and Business at Harvard Business School. During 30 years on
the faculty he has taught courses on managerial economics, risk
management, marketing, and retailing at both MBA and executive levels. Currently he is teaching the MBA agribusiness
course. He chairs the once-per-year Agribusiness Seminar that
attracts 200 food industry executives from around the world to
discuss industry trends. He also chairs the school’s marketing
department. Along with Walter J. Salmon, David has written two
books on retailing, Strategic Retail Management and
Dr. Hawkins has led corporate e-health, quality data, web, and
prevention strategies, and is a Clinical Instructor at Harvard
Medical School for Preventive Medicine and Nutrition with a
master’s in Health Policy and Management from the Harvard
School of Public Health.
Introduction to Retailing.
Jay McQuaide
Director of Internal Communications,
With Arthur Schleifer Jr., David has produced four books in a
series called “Managerial Decision Analysis” for Course Technology Inc. He was awarded the 2001 Ramsey Medal by the
Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. He is the Department
Editor for Decision Analysis for Management Science. David
received a BA from Merton College, Oxford and a PhD from MIT.
Jay is Director of Internal Communications at Blue Cross Blue
Shield of Massachusetts. In that role, Jay is responsible for all
corporate-wide communications to BCBSMA’s nearly 4,000
Massachusetts employees.
Prior to joining BCBSMA in September 2005, Jay was a news
anchor and reporter for WBZ Newsradio 1030 and CBS4, the
CBS-owned radio and television stations in Boston. Jay won
numerous journalism awards for his coverage of national political
conventions, presidential inaugurations, and state political races.
Among the honors was a national Edward R. Murrow Award that
recognizes excellence in electronic journalism.
Leslie Gaines-Ross
Chief Reputation Strategist, Weber-Shandwick
In her role as chief reputation strategist, Dr. Leslie Gaines-Ross
leads Weber Shandwick’s reputation consulting services and proprietary thought leadership development. She is the architect
behind ground-breaking, award-winning research into CEO and
corporate reputation, executive team reputation, leadership
transitions, reputation sustainability, and recovery. Dr. GainesRoss is a member of Weber Shandwick’s global senior management team.
Prior to joining WBZ in 1992, Jay worked as a reporter at WDBO
Radio in Orlando, Florida where he covered stories such as the
1992 presidential election, the William Kennedy Smith trial, and
Hurricane Andrew.
She is one of the world’s most widely recognized experts on CEO
reputation. Gaines-Ross spearheaded the first comprehensive
research on CEO reputation and its impact on corporate reputation and performance. She was the architect of “On the Minds of
CEOs,” an international survey of CEOs that was conducted with
Fortune and the creator of www.reputationRx.com. Her book,
Jay grew up in Lowell, Massachusetts. He attended the city’s
public schools and graduated from the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Recently, his alma mater recognized him as a
Distinguished Young Alumnus.
CEO Capital: A Guide to Building CEO Reputation and Company
Success, was published in 2003. Before joining Weber Shand-
wick, Dr. Gaines-Ross was chief knowledge and research officer
worldwide at Burson-Marsteller and marketing and communications director at Fortune.
Thomas Hawkins, MD
Medical Director, Health Informatics,
Thomas Hawkins is the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts
Medical Director for Health Informatics. He is responsible for
clinical development and presentation of Health Informatics,
School Publishing
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School Publishing
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May 14-16, 2007
Boston, MA
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