Climate change in Bucegi mountains Natura 2000 habitats sensitivity

Climate change in Bucegi mountains Natura 2000 habitats sensitivity

Climate Change and nature Conservation in Europe
an ecological, policy and economic perspective
www.habit-change.eu
Bonn 25-27th of June 2013
Climate change in Bucegi mountains
Natura 2000 habitats sensitivity
Climate scenarios
Habitats sensitivity
Climate change impact
2.HABIT-CHANGE Partner Meeting
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National Park, Illmitz
Anca SARBU - University of Bucharest (RO)
Georg JANAUER - University of Vienna (AT)
IrisWAGNER-LÜCKER - University of Vienna (AT)
www.habit-change.eu
To document the
potential sensitivity
of Natura 2000
habitats to climate
change
To evaluate the
potential impact of
climate change on
these habitats
Elements supporting the implementation of
adaptive management practices in Bucegi mountains
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
STUDY SITE
BUCEGI Natural Park – 32,497.6 ha
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
STUDY SITE
BUCEGI Natural Park
Belongs to Natura 2000
Bucegi Site
Displays a level difference
between 806 m and 2507 m
altitude
The climate is cold and
humid
Long periods of snow and
frost are common
Hosts about 30% of all taxa
known in Romanian flora
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
www.habit-change.eu
What can we expect from climate change in this century?
→ a global growth of temperature of 1.1° – 6.4°C
→ significant variation of precipitation (flood & drought)
(the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 2007)
→ a potential decrease of plant diversity
→ changes of the ecosystems
(the IUCN Report on Climate Change, 2010)
→ 50% of the plants from the current Europe’s protected areas will not
longer have suitable climatic conditions to survive
(the Araujo et al. studies, 2011)
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
What can happen in Bucegi Natural Pak?
Bucegi Natural Park (RO): Climate scenarios – Temperature and Precipitation 2010-2100 compared to 1960-1974
(source: HABIT-CHANGE outputs 3.2.3. and 3.2.7.)
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
How sensitive are the protected habitats from
Bucegi Natural Pak?
Luzulo-Fagetum beech forest
(Natura 2000 code: 9110)
Bushes with
Pinus
mugo
and
myrtifolium
Acidophilous
Picea
forests
of Rhododendron
theonmontane
alpine levels
Species
rich Nardus
grasslands
siliceoustosubstrates
in
Dacian
beech
forests
(Symphyto-Fagion)
(Natura 2000
2000areas
code: (Natura
4070*)
(Natura
code:
91V0)
(Vaccinio-Piceetaea)
(Natura
9410)
mountain
2000 2000
code:code:
6230*)
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
Siliceous alpine and boreal grasslands
(Natura 2000 code: 6150)
www.habit-change.eu
Habitat’s sensitivity
INDICATOR PARAMETERS : Temperature & Moisture
Framework for the habitat’s sensitivity assessment
Regional EXPERT KNOWLEDGE
(approach developed by Peterman et al.
2007)
Regional SENSITIVITY VALUES
(low, medium, high)
CRITERIA
SENSITIVITY
low
medium
high
Conservation status
Ability to regenerate
Altitudinal distribution
Horizontal distribution
Decrease of territorial coverage
Influence of neophytes
Dependence on ground and surface water
SPECIES COMPOSITION and
ECOLOGICAL PREFERENCES
(Ellenberg 1972, Popescu & Sanda 1998)
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
The frequency of the
categorized indicator
values per habitat was
used in the sensitivity
assessment
INDICATOR VALUES FOR
TEMPERATURE (low, medium, high)
and MOISTURE (dry, moist, wet)
Habitat’s sensitivity
www.habit-change.eu
Clouds
Urban
Waterbodies
Bare ground
Bushes vegetation - Habitat 4070*
Grassland - Habitat 6150
Grassland - Habitat 6230*
Forest - Habitat 9110
Forest - Habitat 91V0
Forest - habitat 9410
Shadows
Clouds
Clouds
Urban
Urban
Waterbodies
Waterbodies
Bare ground
ground
Bare
Bushes vegetation
vegetation -- Habitat
Habitat 4070*
4070*
Bushes
Grassland -- Habitat
Habitat 6150
6150
Grassland
Grassland -- Habitat
Habitat 6230*
6230*
Grassland
Forest -- Habitat
Habitat 9110
9110
Forest
Forest -- Habitat
Habitat 91V0
91V0
Forest
Forest -- habitat
habitat 9410
9410
Forest
Shadows
Shadows
Bucegi Natural Park (RO), distribution of the selected
habitat types (Map: Wagner, Forster, Schmidt 10.12.2012)
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
Bucegi
Natural
Park
(RO)
habitats:
Sensitivity
temperature.
Bucegi
Natural
Park
(RO)
habitats:
Sensitivity
moisture.
Medium
sensitivity
; High
sensitivity
(source:
adapted
map
Medium
sensitivity
; High
sensitivity
(source:
adapted
map
using
the map
withhabitat
currenttypes,
habitat
types, HABIT-CHANGE
output 3.1.9.)
theusing
map with
current
HABIT-CHANGE
output 3.1.9.)
www.habit-change.eu
Potential Climate
Change Impact on
Temperature
increase
Natura 2000 habitats
from Bucegi Natural Park
Moisture
decrease
Framework for the climate change
HIGH
Bushes habitats
impact
assessment
impact magnitude
Forest habitats
MEDIUM
impact magnitude
Grassland habitats
Alpine and subalpine
Temperature
increase
Clouds
Urban
Waterbodies
Bare ground
Bushes vegetation - Habitat 4070*
Grassland - Habitat 6150
Grassland - Habitat 6230*
Forest - Habitat 9110
Forest - Habitat 91V0
Forest - Habitat 9410
Shadows
Bucegi Natural Park (RO) habitats: Potential Climate Change Impact.
Medium impact
; High impact
(source: adapted map using the
map with current habitat types, HABIT-CHANGE output 3.1.9.)
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
CONCLUSIONS
 Up to the end of this century, warmer and drier conditions are projected
for Bucegi mountains and most probably for the whole Carpathian
mountains.
 In this respect, the alpine and subalpine bushes and grasslands and the
forest habitats were evaluated to be under medium and high impact of
climate change.
 Temperature increase can be considered the significant climatic pressure
for the alpine and subalpine scrubs and grasslands and the decrease in
moisture for mountain forests.
 This information which was detailed up to the species level will be use to
design good practices in adaptation management to climate change.
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
What can we lose in the future ?
Achillea oxyloba subsp. schurii
Hepatica
transsilvanica
Dianthus
glacialis
Campanula
serratasubsp. gelidus
Arnica montana
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz
www.habit-change.eu
Thank you for your Attention!
www.habit-change.eu
University
of BucharestPartner Meeting
2.HABIT-CHANGE
B-dul Mihail Kogalniceanu 36-46
Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National
Sector 5, Bucharest, Romania
Park, Illmitz