Evaluation, Measurement and Verification of EE Programs: The EMV Challenge NGA’s Policy Academy

Evaluation, Measurement and
Verification of EE Programs:
The EMV Challenge
NGA’s Policy Academy
on State Building Efficiency Retrofit Programs
Brian T. Castelli
Executive Vice President, Programs & Development
January 2010
What is the Alliance to Save Energy? „ The Alliance to Save Energy promotes energy efficiency worldwide to achieve a healthier economy, a cleaner environment and greater energy security.
- Non‐profit organization headquartered in U.S.; operations world‐wide
- Led by Senator Mark Pryor (D‐Ark.) and Peter Darbee, President and CEO of Pacific Gas and Electric
- Includes 10 Members of Congress – Bi‐Cameral; Bi‐Partisan
- Also includes environmental, consumer, and trade associations heads, state and local policy makers, corporate executives
- More than 170 Associate Members
Need EM&V to document and ensure energy savings and associated goals (e.g., emissions avoidance).
„ Need EM&V with growing scrutiny and large amounts of money at stake.
„ EM&V challenge is how to estimate energy not consumed that would have been otherwise—the counterfactual.
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EM&V challenges
- Free riders—EE measures may be implemented even w/o program; did program cause savings?
- Spillover—program may induce EE by those not in the program (additional EE).
- Interactions of EE measures (e.g., lighting and HVAC)
- Programs may interact or indirectly induce EE.
- Baseline adjustment—did EE measures save the energy or mild weather or reduced production? Were savings “additional” or “business‐as‐usual” improvements in performance?
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EM&V challenges (continued)
- Cost of EM&V
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•
•
Cheaper to use “deemed savings” (assumed values) than actually measure energy use for standardized projects.
Should assure proper installation and maintenance of EE measures.
Customized projects more complicated.
- Varying assumptions, definitions, methodologies
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E.g., CFLs for incandescent bulbs—can assume wattage savings, hours of use, life of lamps.
But existing state manuals vary greatly in these assumptions and, thus, in savings calculated for a given project.
15W CFL installed in a living room, with a rated lifetime of 10,000 hours
CT
How equivalent incandescent wattage is calculated
PA
VT
CA
WI (ACES MA (draft as of Deemed 10/09)
Savings Review, June 2008)
Energy Star
CO
CFL W + 51.9
3.4 x CFL wattage
51.9
36
2.3
2.96
Not given
6
Not given
6482.4
3.4 x CFL wattage
Measured
CFL W + 48.7
3.53 x CFL wattage
4 x CFL wattage
Assumption that 13‐16W CFLs replace 60W incandescent
Change in Wattage
36
varies depending on individual measures
48.7
37.95
45
45
Hours/day
2.96
3
3.4
2.18
3
2.37
Life in years
5.25
6.4
6.4
6.6
9.13
7
Life in Hours
5672.1
7008
7942.4
5251.62
9997.35
6048
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EM&V challenges (continued)
- Technical issues of measurement—error, bias, sampling, …
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Some schools of thought on EM&V
- EM&V imperfect but getting better
- Unreliable, can’t be improved
- EM&V imperfect but that’s so for other program areas too (health, crime, poverty reduction, education, defense)—don’t hold to higher standard
- Imperfect, but no choice, have to do more
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Process important for transparency and credibility
- EERS compliance and performance‐based compensation creates vested interests.
- Stakeholders questioning/debating EM&V assumptions, data, methods can enhance transparency.
- Transparency can enhance credibility of EE programs if questions and criticisms addressed and EM&V improved.
- If not, credibility of EE programs may be compromised.
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Toward regional and national protocols and standards
- Growing scope of EERS and EE in RES.
- Potential trading of ESCs directly or as components of RES or as carbon credits and offsets.
- Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnership (NEEP)—
investigating regional protocol development.
- North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB)—
tech standards
- National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (NAPEE)—
evaluating if it has a role in protocol development
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To improve credibility and reliability of EM&V government and stakeholders should:
- Use processes for EM&V design and review that promote -
transparency and incite debate on methods, data, assumptions,
Improve EM&V methods, data, and assumptions,
Increase consistency of methods and assumptions between regions and program types,
Assure evaluation professional competency and integrity,*
Manage stakeholder expectations.
*Efficiency Valuation Organization and Association of Energy Engineers developed relevant training and credential based on the Int’l Performance M&V Protocol (IPMVP).
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IPMVP provides discussion and guidance on how to quantify savings, including:
- Normalizing savings
- Interactive effects
- Data sources, preparation and missing data
- Statistical bias
- Independent verification
- Building simulation
Allows flexibility, while sticking to “principles of accuracy, completeness, conservativeness, consistency, relevance and transparency”
Doesn’t give answers, but lists the questions that need to be asked
Highlight issues
„ Inform and engage key stakeholders
„ Provide technical input/support
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- On NAESB, NEEP, NAPEE workgroups
Cross fertilizations across initiatives
„ Application to policy
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Alliance to Save Energy
202‐857‐0666
www.ase.org