Document 6555275

Closing Grain & Soybean Comments
Kevin Riesberg Tuesday October 14 2014
CORN: Corn exploded higher when a push above the $3.50 1/2 triggered buy-stops and over 11,000 contracts of
Dec corn traded in that 1 minute. Another 13,000 contracts then traded later in the day at 1 pm as the buying
found very little farmer selling today. Country contacts report farmer selling should pick up toward the $3.75-3.80
area and then again toward $4.00. Ideas behind the buying today ranged from corn harvest running late (no
surprise there) to more possible changes to FSA acreage data in tomorrow's reports. Harvest progress tonight at
24% complete was right in line with the expected 25%. The 5 year avg for corn harvest is 43% for this week.
The weather forecast does turn drier in the 6-10 day period across the Midwest though the back end of the 11-15
day forecast has rain in it. The outside markets saw energies under pressure, except for ethanol, while US dollar
rebounded. Export news is light though with S. Korea passing on tenders last night citing prices as too high.
Dec/March corn spread did hit 13 cents but stalled there. Trade now waits for harvest and yield reports to resume
and also if reports of light test weights continue in parts of the northern Corn Belt (northern IA, MN, WI).
7/18/2014 - 10/17/2014 (CHG)
Daily 1CZ4
Cndl, 1CZ4, Trade Price
10/14/2014, 3451/ 2, 3571/ 2, 343, 357, +11, (+3.18%)
3MA, 1CZ4, Trade Price(Last), 50, 100, 200, Simple
10/14/2014, 3497/ 8+, 3841/ 8+, 4303/ 4+
SMA, 1CZ4, Trade Price(Last), 10
10/14/2014, 3361/ 2+
Price
USc
Bsh
400
Dec corn resistance band 3.60-$3.80
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
1/8
StochS, 1CZ4, Trade Price, 22, 5, Exponential, 5
10/14/2014, 76.495, 60.243
21
28
04
11
18
July 2014
August 2014
25
02
08
15
22
September 2014
29
06
13
October 2014
Value
USc
Bsh
SOY-COMPLEX: Beans and meal closed higher on continued short covering driven by friendly technicals. Lack
of US farmer selling and slower than normal US harvest also giving some support though producer selling is
expected to pick up toward the $9.80-$10.00 area in Nov beans. October meal went off the board in volatile
trade with Oct/Dec inverse trading $50. NOPA crush report is out tomorrow and estimates are wide ranging from
as low as 95 mln bu and as high as 117 mln bu with avg guess of 108 mln bu (similar to last September). Some
believe it will be on the low side since some processors had to slow down/shut down due to lack of soybeans and
the empty pipeline (recall Sept 1st stocks were a meager 92 mln bu). Estimates on the soyoil stocks range from
just 850 mln lbs to 1.250 bln lbs with avg guess of 1.0 bln lbs.
This afternoon's harvest progress number at 40% was better than the avg guess of low 30s with not too far
behind the 5 year avg of 53% harvested. Soybean basis at the Gulf is firmer as exporters work to load boats with
talk of some Western bean trains getting a premium due to better protein/oil content. Weekly export inspections
were better than expected at just over 52 mln bu, of which over 32 mln of this was shipped out of the Gulf and
less than 15 mln bu shipped from the PNW. Historically export inspections out of the US should be hitting their
peak over the next 4 weeks.
Trade is keeping eye on dryness in parts of Brazil as it slows bean planting slightly there (but it is early yet with
RJO’Brien
Service is our trade
1|Page
just 7% of the crop is planted vs 10% avg). Technically Nov beans look to find resistance toward the $9.85$10.00 area, see chart.
6/16/2014 - 10/21/2014 (CHG)
Price
USc
Bsh
Daily 1SX4
3MA, 1SX4, Trade Price(Last), 20, 50, 100, Simple
10/14/2014, 9363/ 4+, 994+, 10781/ 8+
Cndl, 1SX4, Trade Price
/2, (+2.06%)
10/14/2014, 9433/4, 9701/2, 9431/ 4, 964,
+1911116
100.0%
1/4+
1110
1080
Resistance for SX toward 9.85-9.95
1050
61.8% 1035 1/8+
1020
50.0% 1010 1/8+
990
38.2% 985+
960
23.6% 954+
930
0.0%
903 7/8+
1/8
16
23
June 2014
30
07
14
21
July 2014
28
04
11
18
August 2014
25
02
08
15
22
September 2014
29
06
13
October 2014
20
WHEAT: The wheat market closed higher following the rally in corn and soybeans though there was very little
fundamental news for wheat to trade on. Weekly export inspections were lighter than expected at just 15.5 mln
bu. US inspections are now running 34% behind last year when the USDA is projecting the US to be just 21%
behind after increasing the
number last Friday. In other
news some private forecasters
are calling for Australian wheat
crop to be as low as 22 mmt
with harvest getting underway.
This would be 3 mmt less than
the current USDA number and
would be the smallest wheat
crop then since 2009/10 for the
Land Down Under (see chart).
Russian wheat prices are
holding steady while European
wheat prices grudgingly
followed the US market higher.
This afternoon the USDA
reported that US winter wheat
plantings at 68% is right in line
with avg pace 67% (note some SRW states are behind due to the late fall harvest...IL is just 15% planted vs 41%
normally). Trade is expecting to see a drop in IL and WI SRW acres this fall thanks to a combination of wet
fall/slow planting and disappointment with last summer's net return after the high discounts on vomitoxin. Would
look for wheat to be a follower in the night session and consolidate in choppy trade.
Have a good afternoon!
RJO’Brien
Service is our trade
2|Page
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material
is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of
the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in
making trading decisions.
DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS
COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR
RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS
ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS
COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.
RJO’Brien
Service is our trade
3|Page
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable
investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading
advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not
guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment
at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
RJO’Brien
Service is our trade
4|Page