R E S E A R C H A T T H E B A N K O F ITA LY

Transcription

Forthcoming events
Latest working papers
Latest occasional papers
Workshops and conferences
Selection of journal articles and books
Useful links
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Highlights
DIRECTORATEGENERALFORECONOMICS,STATISTICSANDRESEARCH
RESEARCHATTHEBANKOFITALY
NUMBER 37
DECEMBER 2014
Contents
Highlights
17th Central Bank Macroeconomic Modelling Workshop on
“New Perspectives on Models for Policy Analysis”
(Rome,20-21October2014)
O
n 20 and 21 October 2014 the Bank of Italy hosted the 17th annual “Central
Bank Macroeconomic Modelling Workshop”. The workshop brings together
policy-makersandacademicstodiscusscriticalissuesrelatedtotheclassofmodels
usedforpolicyanalysis.Thisyear’sedition,entitled“NewPerspectivesonModels
for Policy Analysis”, focused on the need to enrich structural models in order to
accountinparticularforthe(possiblynon-linear)interactionbetweenthe0inancial
sectorandtherealeconomy(inclosedandopeneconomiesandunderlowandhigh
uncertainty)andforsystemicrisk.
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60th Economic Policy Panel
On24and25October,theEinaudiInstituteforEconomicsandFinancehostedthe
“60th Economic Policy Panel”.Themeetingwasjointlyorganizedbytheeditorsof
EconomicPolicy,CEPRandtheBankofItaly.Paperscommissionedforthejournal
werepresentedanddiscussedbythemembersofthePanel.
Theprogrammeisavailablehere.
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Conference on "Competition, Markets and Growth in Italy: the
Long Term”
W
hat does history teach us about the relationship between competition and
growth? How has competition helped shape the Italian economy? These
issuesweredealtwithattheconference“Competition,MarketsandGrowthinItaly:
the Long Term”, held at the Bank of Italy in Rome on 29 and 30 October. After a
descriptionoftheEuropeanframeworkandcompetitionmeasures,theparticipants
focused on Italy, examining a number of areas, including cultural questions. The
evolution of competition in Italy was investigated at both aggregate and sectoral
level, in order to provide a point of departure for policy analysis, which was the
topicoftheconcludingdiscussion.
Theprogrammeandthepapersareavailablehere.
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RDEDFGHIFJJIDBFKLMNIJFOP-NDQEODJJDG
NRSTDG37,DDHDSTDG2014
Highlights
Conference on “The impact of the crisis on potential output and
households’ expenditure in Italy “
(Rome,5December2014)
O
n 5 December 2014 the Bank of Italy hosted a conference entitled “The impact of the crisis on
potential output and households’ expenditure in Italy”, presenting the 0indings of a research
project carried out by economists at the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research.
The papers describe theimpactof thecrisison key macroeconomic variablesandseek to determine
whether the cyclical downturn has caused structural changes in the behaviour of households and
0irms. This knowledge is crucial to projecting the timing and strength of the recovery and to policy
design.A0irstsetofstudiesanalyzedtherepercussionsofthecrisisintermsoflossinpotentialoutput
and lower capacity utilization, at aggregate and sectoral level. Two other papers documented the
dismalperformanceofconsumptioninthelastfewyearsandexploredhowfarthismayrepresenta
fallinpermanentincome.Freshempiricalevidenceonhowthecrisishasaffected0irms’price-setting
policies and on the increased sensitivity of consumer in0lation to cyclical slackness was presented.
Lastly,apaperassessedwhetherthesharpcyclicaldeteriorationofthelabourmarkethasgenerated
structuralunemployment.Inaconcludingroundtable,thepanelistsmovedfromtheevidenceprovided
to debate the macroeconomic and structural policies that are needed to foster a gradual recovery
towardsfastergrowth
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Workshop on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Theory and Applications
(Rome,19December2014)
O
n 19 December the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance hosted the 13th edition of the
“WorkshoponMacroeconomicDynamics:TheoryandApplications”.Researchersworkingonissues
intheoreticalandapplieddynamicmacroeconomicsdiscussedpioneeringpapersandresearchprojects.
Theprogrammeisavailablehere.
Forthcoming events
4nations cup
(Rome,8May2015)
The next edition of the “4nations cup” will be held on 8 May 2015 at the Einaudi Institute for
EconomicsandFinance.Thecupisaone-daycontestamongthemostpromisingyoungscholarsinfour
countriesinthe0ieldof0inancialeconomics.Itconsistsinaseriesof40-minute“shortseminars”.Inthe
2015 edition, the contestants will come from universities in Denmark, Italy, Sweden and the United
Kingdom
Furtherinformationisavailablehere.
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No.997: Macroeconomic effects of
simultaneous implementation of
reforms after the crisis
(November2014)
No.995: Dynasties in professions: the role
of rents (November2014)
SauroMocetti
T
hecorrelationbetweenthesocio-economic
statusofparentsandtheiroffspringhas
emergedasoneofthestylizedfactsineconomics,
thoughcross-countryandcross-occupation
variationisremarkable.However,partofthe
underlyingmechanismbehindintergenerational
persistenceremainstobeexplained.Thispaper
contributestotheexistingliteraturebyproviding
evidenceontheroleofrents–(unfair)economic
bene0itsthatindividualsobtainasadultsbecause
oftheirparents’professionalposition.Several
identi0icationstrategies,includingtheexploitation
ofdiscontinuitiesinregulation,suggestthatrents
signi0icantlyaffectchildren’spropensitytofollow
theirparents’professionalcareerpaths.Froma
policyperspective,theremovalofanti-competitive
regulationandotherpositionaladvantagesmay
increasebothsocial0luidityandlabormarket
ef0iciency.
Fulltext(pdf)
AndreaGerali,AlessandroNotarpietroand
MassimilianoPisani
T
hispaperevaluatesthemacroeconomic
effectsofsimultaneouslyimplementing0iscal
consolidationandcompetition-friendlyreformsin
acountryoftheeuroareabysimulatingalargescaledynamicgeneralequilibriummodel.We0ind,
0irst,thatthejointimplementationofreformshas
additionalexpansionaryeffectsonlong-run
economicactivity.Increasingcompetitioninthe
servicesectorfavorsahigherincometaxbase.
Giventhetargetedpublicdebt-to-GDPratio,labor
andcapitalincometaxratescanbereducedmore
thanwith0iscalconsolidationalone.Second,0iscal
consolidationhasnon-negligiblemedium-run
costs;however,theyarereducedbyjoint
implementationwiththeservicesreform.The
resultsarerobusttoalternativeassumptionsthat
capturetheimpactof0inancialcrisisonthe
0inancingconditionsofhouseholds.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.994: Trade Liberalization and
Domestic Suppliers: Evidence
from Chile (November2014)
No.996: Current account “core-periphery
dualism” in the EMU
(November2014)
AndreaLinarello
TatianaCesaroniandRobertaDeSantis
C
urrentaccount(CA)dispersionwithinEuropean
Union(EU)memberstateshasbeenincreasing
progressivelysincethe1990s.Interestingly,the
persistentde0icitsinmanyperipheralcountrieshave
notbeenaccompaniedbyasigni0icantgrowth
processabletostimulatealogrunrebalancingas
neoclassicaltheorypredicts.Toshedlightonthe
issuethispaperinvestigatesthedeterminantsof
EurozoneCAimbalances,focusingontheroleplayed
by0inancialintegration.Theanalysisconsiderstwo
samplesof22OECDand15EUcountries,threetime
horizonscorrespondingtovariousstepsinEuropean
integration,differentcontrolvariablesandseveral
paneleconometricmethods.Theresultssuggestthat
withintheOECDandEUgroups0inancialintegration
contributedtoexplainCAdeteriorationinthe
peripheralcountriesespeciallyinthepost-EMU
period.Thebusinesscycleseemstohaveplayeda
growingroleovertime,whereastheroleof
competivenessseemstohavediminishedwith
respecttothepast.Fulltext(pdf)
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I
examinetheeffectofreducingexporttariffson
theproductivityofdomesticsuppliersof
exporting0irms.UsingapanelofChilean0irms
duringaperiodoftradeliberalizationwiththe
EuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,andthe
RepublicofKorea,Ishowthattheaverage
reductionintheexporttariffofdownstream
industries(1.1percentagepoints)increasesthe
productivityofintermediateinputsuppliersby1.5
percent.Theincreaseinproductivityamong
domesticsuppliersaccountsfor22.5percentof
aggregateproductivitygains.I0indthattariffcuts
induce0irmstoacquirenewmachineryandpay
higherwagestoskilledworkers.These0indings
areconsistentwithasimplemodelinwhichlower
exporttariffsincreasethesalesofexporting0irms
andincreasethederiveddemandfor
intermediatesthroughinput-outputlinkages.
Fulltext(pdf)
fundamentals,whicharepickedasscapegoatsto
rationalizeobservedcurrency0luctuationsattimes
whenexchangeratesaredrivenbyunobservable
shocks.Usingnovelsurveydatathatdirectly
measureforeignexchangescapegoatsfor12
exchangerates,we0indempiricalevidencethat
supportsthescapegoattheory.Theresulting
modelsexplainalargefractionofthevariationand
directionalchangesinexchangeratesinsample,
althoughtheirout-of-sampleforecasting
performanceismixed.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.993: Optimal monetary policy rules
and house prices: the role of
Jinancial frictions (October2014)
AlessandroNotarpietroandStefanoSiviero
W
eprobethescopeforreactingtohouse
pricesinsimpleandimplementable
monetarypolicyrules,usingaNewKeynesian
modelwithahousingsectorand0inancialfrictions
onthehouseholdside.Weshowthatthesocial
welfaremaximizingmonetarypolicyrulefeatures
areactiontohousepricevariations,whenthe
latteraregeneratedbyhousingdemandor
0inancialshocks.Thesignandsizeofthereaction
cruciallydependonthedegreeof0inancial
frictionsintheeconomy.Whentheshareof
constrainedagentsisrelativelysmall,theoptimal
reactionisnegative,implyingthatthecentralbank
mustmovethepolicyrateintheopposite
directionwithrespecttohouseprices.However,
whentheeconomyischaracterizedbya
suf0icientlyhighaverageloan-to-valueratio,then
itbecomesoptimaltocounterhouseprice
increasesbyraisingthepolicyrate.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.990: How much of bank credit risk is
sovereign risk? Evidence from the
Eurozone (October2014)
JunyeLiandGabrieleZinna
W
edevelopamultivariatecreditriskmodel
forthetermstructuresofsovereignand
bankcreditdefaultswaps.First,weseparatethe
probabilityofjointdefaultsoflargeEurozone
sovereigns(systemicrisk)fromthatofsovereignspeci0icdefaults(countryrisk).Then,wequantify
individualbanks'exposurestoeachtypeof
sovereignrisk,aswellasbank-speci0iccreditrisk.
Banks’sovereignriskexposuresvarywithbanks’
size,theirholdingsofsovereigndebt,andexpected
governmentsupport.Onaverage,45%ofFrench
andSpanishbanks'creditriskconsistsin
sovereignrisk,comparedwithonly30%forItalian
and23%forGermanbanks.Furthermore,short-
tomedium-termcontractsareparticularly
informativeonsovereignsystemicrisk.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.992: Informed trading and stock
market efJiciency (October2014)
TaneliMäkinen
T
heinformationcontentofstockpricesis
analysedwithoutimposingstrongrestrictions
ontraders'preferencesandthedistributionof
dividends.Noiseintheinformationcontainedin
equilibriumpricesarisesfromendogenousasset
supply,whichoffsetspricemovementsdueto
informedtrading.Theinformativenessofstock
pricesincreaseswiththewealthoftheinformed
tradersanddecreaseswiththerisk-freerate,as
stockpricesrespondmorestronglytoinformation
heldbyinformedtraderswhentheytakelarger
positionsinstocks.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.989: The determinants of household
debt: a cross-country analysis (October2014)
MassimoColetta,RiccardoDeBonisandStefano
Piermattei
I
nmostcountrieshouseholddebtincreasedfrom
the1990suntilthecrisisof2007-2008before
stabilizingduetorecessionanddeleveraging.
However,therearenationaldifferencesin
householddebt/GDPratios.Thispaperstudiesthe
determinantsofhouseholddebt,usinga32countrydatasetandtakingbothdemand-sideand
supply-sidefactorsintoaccount.Theeconometric
exercises,coveringtheperiod1995-2011,yield
twomainresults.First,debtisgreaterincountries
No.991: The scapegoat theory of exchange
rates: the Jirst tests (October2014)
MarcelFratzscher,Dag.innRime,LucioSarnoand
GabrieleZinna
T
hescapegoattheoryofexchangerates
(BacchettaandvanWincoop2004,2013)
suggeststhatmarketparticipantsmayattach
excessiveweighttoindividualeconomic
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withhigherpercapitaGDPandhouseholdwealth.
Second,theef0icacyofbankruptcylawsis
correlatedwiththelevelofhouseholddebt,while
alongertimetoresolveinsolvenciesisassociated
withlowerdebt.Thesetwoinstitutionalvariables
arelinkedtohouseholddebtmorerobustlythanis
thequalityofcreditregisters.
Fulltext(pdf)
arepositivelyrelatedtothelevelofentrepreneurs’
leverage,re0lectingthefactthathigherleverage
impliesgreaterelasticityofthepolicyrateto
changesinloanrates,whichinturnincreases
banks’marketpower.Third,we0indthat
ampli0icationisstrongerthemoreaggressivethe
centralbank’sresponsetoin0lation,asmeasured
bythein0lationcoef0icientintheTaylorrule.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.988: The interest-rate sensitivity of the
demand for sovereign debt.
Evidence from OECD countries
(1995-2011) (October2014)
No.986: An estimated DSGE model with
search and matching frictions in
the credit market (October2014)
DaniloLiberati
GiuseppeGrande,SergioMasciantonioandAndrea
Tiseno
F
inancialfrictionshavebecomefundamental
forstudyingthebusinesscycleandcredit
marketdynamics.Thisworkaddstotheexisting
literaturebyintroducingasearchandmatching
schemeinthe0inancialmarketintoacashin
advanceNewKeynesianDSGEtheoreticalmodel.
Weprovideanalternativeexplanationofthe
degreeofincompletenessinthepass-throughfrom
policyratetoloanratesdependingoncredit
markettightness,thesearchcostssustainedby
banks,andtherelativepowersoftheagentsin
loaninterestratebargaining.Themodelisableto
reproducethecountercyclicalbehaviourofthe
creditspreadwithrespecttoapositivetechnology
shock.Italsoproposesascenarioinwhichacredit
shockhitstheeconomy.Themodelisestimatedby
usingtheBayesianprocedures.Finally,sincethere
isstillsomedisagreementaboutthetheoretical
mechanismbywhichtheinterestrateonloansis
derived,wesurveyandcomparethesetheoretical
deviceswiththatproposedbythispaper.
Fulltext(pdf)
P
ublicdebtlevelsinadvancedeconomieshave
increaseddramaticallyoverrecentyearsand
theycouldputconsiderableupwardpressureon
marketyields.Usinganovelidenti0ication
approachbasedon0inancialaccountsandfocusing
onpanelregressionsfor18advancedeconomies
overtheperiod1995–2011,thispaperestimates
thelong-termslopeofthedemandfunctionfor
governmentsecuritiesinareduced-formsetting.
We0indthatpublicdebtdoesmatter:each
percentagepointincreaseinthepublicdebtto
GDPratioraises10-yearratesbyabout2basis
points.Thepotentialdragonpublicdebt
sustainabilitycausedbythefeedbackloopof
publicdebtonhigherinterestratesshouldnot
thereforebeoverlooked.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.987: Large banks, loan rate markup
and monetary policy
(October2014)
VincenzoCucinielloandFedericoM.Signoretti
No.985: Dif-in-dif estimators of
multiplicative treatment effects
(October2014)
T
hispaperstudiestheimplicationsof
introducinglargemonopolisticbanks,which
canaffectmacroeconomicoutcomesandthusthe
responseofmonetarypolicytoin0lation,ina
modelwithacollateralconstraintlinkingthe
borrowers’creditcapacitytothevalueoftheir
durableassets.First,we0indthatstrategic
interactiongeneratesacountercyclicalloan
spread,whichampli0iestheimpactofmonetary
andtechnologyshocksontherealeconomy.This
typeof0inancialacceleratoraddsuptotheone
dueto0inancialfrictionsandiscruciallyrelatedto
theexistenceofnon-atomisticbanks.Second,the
levelofthespreadandthedegreeofampli0ication
EmanueleCianiandPaulFisher
W
econsideradifference-in-differences
settingwithacontinuousoutcome,suchas
wagesorexpenditure.Thestandardpracticeisto
takethelogarithmoftheoutcomeandthen
interprettheresultsasanapproximationofthe
multiplicativetreatmenteffectontheoriginal
outcome.Wearguethataresearchershould
insteadfocusontheoriginaloutcomewhen
discussingcausalinference.Furthermore,itis
preferabletouseanon-linearestimator,because
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runningOLSonthelog-linearisedmodelmight
confounddistributionalandmeanchanges.We
illustratetheargumentwithanoriginalempirical
analysisoftheimpactoftheUKEducational
MaintenanceAllowanceonhouseholds'
expenditure,andwithasimulationexercise.
Fulltext(pdf)
innovatecomparedwithexternalcounterparts.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.982: Informational effects of monetary
policy (October2014)
GiuseppeFerrero,MarcelloMiccoliandSergio
Santoro
W
No.984: Natural expectations and home
equity (October2014)
RobertoPancraziandMarioPietrunti
I
nthispaperweshowthatlong-runexpectations
aboutfuturehousingpricesofbothhouseholds
and,especially,0inancialintermediarieshada
largeimpactonhouseholds'indebtednessduring
therecentboominU.S.housingprices.We
introducethetheoryofnaturalexpectationsina
collateralizedcreditmarketmodelpopulatedby
householdsandbanksand0ind:(1)thatmild
variationsinlong-runforecastsofhousingprices
resultinlargedifferencesintheamountofhome
equityextractedduringtheboom;and(2)thatthe
equilibriumlevelofdebtandtheinterestrateare
particularlysensitiveto0inancialintermediaries'
naturalness.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.983: Science and Technology Parks in
Italy: main features and analysis
of their effects on the Jirms
(October2014)
eanalyseasimpli0iedNew-Keynesian
modelwithanunobservedaggregatecostpushshockinwhich0irmsandthecentralbank
havedifferentinformationabouttheshock.We
consideralinearpolicyrulewhereapurein0lation
targetingcentralbankdecideshowmuchtoreact
totheshockgivenitsinformation.Inthis
frameworkweshowthatmonetarypolicy
performsbothanallocationalandan
informationalrole,thelatterdueto0irms
extractinginformationontheaggregateshock
fromthemonetarypolicytool.Whenthe
informationalroleispresent,optimalmonetary
policyismorecautious,thatis,itrespondslessto
theshockthantheperfectinformationbenchmark.
Amorecautiousreactiontotheshockimpliesthat
0irmsmakemoreeffectiveuseoftheirprivate
informationandtheendogenousinformation
comingfromtheaggregatepriceinordertomake
inferencesabouttheshock.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.981: The academic and labor market
returns of university professors
(October2014)
DaniloLiberati,MarcoMarinucciandGiulia
MartinaTanzi
W
eanalysetheresultsofasurveyconducted
bytheBankofItalyinthespringof2012
onItalianscienceandtechnologyparks.Firstwe
describethemainfeaturesofscienceparksin
Italy.Thenweinvestigatewhethertheyhave
beeneffectiveinimprovingtheeconomic
performanceandinnovativecapacityofthe0irms
locatedwithinthem.We0indapronounced
heterogeneitybetweenscienceandtechnology
parks,whosecooperationwithpublicresearch
institutionsischaracterizedbyphysical
proximity.Althoughthebusinesssituationof
0irmslocatedinscienceandtechnologyparks
tendsonaveragetobebetterthanthatofsimilar
“non-park”0irms,adifference-in-differences
estimationshowsthatenteringascienceand
technologyparkdidnotgenerallyimprove0irms’
businessperformanceandtheirpropensityto
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MicheleBraga,MarcoPaccagnellaandMichele
Pellizzari
T
hispaperestimatestheimpactofuniversity
teachersontheirstudents’academic
achievementandlabormarketoutcomesusing
administrativedatafromBocconiUniversity
matchedwithItaliantaxrecords.Theestimation
exploitstherandomallocationofstudentsto
teachersina0ixedsequenceofcompulsory
courses.We0indthattheacademicandlabor
marketreturnsofteachersareonlymildly
positivelycorrelatedandthattheprofessorswho
arebestatimprovingtheacademicachievement
oftheirbeststudentsarenotalwaysalsotheones
whoboosttheirstudents’earningsthemost,
especiallyfortheleastablestudents.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.980: Sharing information on lending
decisions: an empirical
assessment (October2014)
UgoAlbertazzi,MargheritaBotteroandGabriele
Sene
W
epresentthe0irstempiricalstudyof
informationspilloverandsignallingonloan
searchanditsoutcomesinasettingwhereabank
observeswhetheraloanapplicanthasalready
beenrejectedbyotherlenders.Wedosobytaking
advantageofthefactthatItaly’sCentralCredit
Registerdisclosessuchinformation.Theresults
showthatdisclosinginformationonpast
rejectionsnegativelyaffectstheprobabilityof
continuingaloansearch.Atthesametime,the
informationonformerrejectionsisassociated
withahigherprobabilityofbeingfundedfor
borrowerswhoarenotdiscouragedandcontinue
thesearch,providedtheyarenotopaque.Withthe
aidofatheoreticalmodel,weshowthatbanks
interprettheinformationonpreviousrejectionsas
asignalofunobservablequalityfortheaverage
borrowerbutnotformoreopaqueborrowers,
whosepastrejectionsnegativelyaffectthe
outcomeoflaterapplications.Wealsoshowthat
banksdifferintheextenttowhichtheyrelyonthis
information,inawaythatatleastpartlyre0lects
thedifferentinformationalcontentthatthissignal
carriesforthem.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.979: Quantile aggregation of density
forecasts (October2014)
FabioBusetti
Quantileaggregation(or'Vincentization')isa
simpleandintuitivewayofcombining
probabilitydistributions,originallyproposedby
S.B.Vincentin1912.Incertaincases,suchas
underGaussianity,theVincentizeddistribution
belongstothesamefamilyasthatofthe
individualdistributionsandcanbeobtainedby
averagingtheindividualparameters.Thispaper
comparesthepropertiesofquantileaggregation
withthoseoftheforecastcombinationschemes
normallyadoptedintheeconometricforecasting
literature,basedonlinearorlogarithmic
averagesoftheindividualdensities.Ingeneralwe
0indthat:(i)largerdifferencesamongthe
combinationschemesoccurwhenthereare
biasesintheindividualforecasts,inwhichcase
quantileaggregationseemspreferableoverall;
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(ii)thechoiceofthecombinationweightsis
importantindeterminingtheperformanceofthe
variousmethods.MonteCarlosimulation
experimentsindicatethatthepropertiesof
quantileaggregationfallbetweenthoseofthe
linearandthelogarithmicpool,andthatquantile
averagingisparticularlyusefulforcombining
forecastdistributionswithlargedifferencesin
location.Anempiricalillustrationisprovided
withdensityforecastsfromtimeseriesand
econometricmodelsforItalianGDP.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.978: Does issuing equities help R&D
activity? Evidence from unlisted
Italian high-tech manufacturing
Jirms (October2014)
SilviaMagri
T
hispaperevaluatesthecausaleffectofissuing
equitiesontheprobabilitythata0irmwill
engageinR&Dactivity.Equityisapreferable
sourceofexternal0inanceforinnovationthan
debt.Itdoesnotrequirecollateral,doesnot
exacerbatemoralhazardproblemsconnectedwith
thesubstitutionofhigh-riskforlow-riskprojects,
quitecommonwhenusingdebt,and,unlikedebt,
doesnotincreasetheprobabilityofbankruptcy;
equityalsoallowsinvestorstoreaptheentire
bene0itofreturnsonsuccessfulinnovative
projects.Thepaperfocusesonhigh-tech0irmsfor
whichasymmetricinformationproblemsaremore
pervasive.Implementinganinstrumentalvariable
estimation,we0indthatissuingequityincreases
theprobabilityofthe0irmmakingR&D
expenditureby30-40percent.Wedetect
considerableheterogeneityacross0irms:the
impactofissuingequityissigni0icantonlyfor
small,young,andmorehighlyleveraged0irms.We
also0indinterestingevidencethatissuingequity
increasesR&Dexpenditureinrelationtosales.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.977: Financial indicators and density
forecasts for US output and
inJlation
(October2014)
PiergiorgioAlessandriandHaroonMumtaz
W
hendo0inancialmarketshelpinpredicting
economicactivity?Withincomplete
markets,thelinkbetween0inancialandreal
economyisstate-dependentand0inancial
indicatorsmayturnouttobeusefulparticularly
inforecasting"tail"macroeconomicevents.We
examinethisconjecturebystudyingBayesian
predictivedistributionsforoutputgrowthand
in0lationintheUSbetween1983and2012,
comparinglinearandnonlinearVARmodels.We
0indthat0inancialindicatorssigni0icantly
improvetheaccuracyofthedistributions.Regime
-switchingmodelsperformbetterthanlinear
modelsthankstotheirabilitytocapturechanges
inthetransmissionmechanismof0inancial
shocksbetweengoodandbadtimes.Suchmodels
couldhavesentacredibleadvancewarning
aheadoftheGreatRecession.Furthermore,the
discrepanciesbetweenmodelsarethemselves
predictable,whichallowstheforecasterto
formulatereasonablereal-timeguessesonwhich
modelislikelytobemoreaccurateinthenext
future.
Fulltext(pdf)
Other recent working papers
September 2014
July 2014
No. 976:Multidimensionalpovertyand
inequality
RolfAabergeandAndreaBrandolini
No. 975:HedonicvalueofItaliantourism
supply:comparingenvironmentaland
culturalattractiveness
ValterdiGiacintoandGiacintoMicucci
No. 974:Identi0icationandestimationof
outcomeresponsewithheterogeneous
treatmentexternalities
TizianoArduini,EleonoraPatacchiniand
EdoardoRainone
No. 973:Inequalityandtrust:newevidence
frompaneldata
GuglielmoBaroneandSauroMocetti
No. 972:Aresovereignwealthfunds
contrarianinvestors?
AlessioCiarloneandValeriaMiceli
No. 971:Randomswitchingexponential
smoothingandinventoryforecasting
GiacomoSbranaandAndreaSilvestrini
No. 970:Academicperformanceandthegreat
recession
EffrosyniAdamopoulouandGiuliaMartina
Tanzi
No. 969:Stockmarketef0iciencyinChina:
evidencefromthesplit-sharereform
AndreaBeltratti,BernardoBortolottiand
MariannaCaccavaio
No. 968:PricepressuresintheUKindexlinkedmarket:anempirical
investigation
GabrieleZinna
No. 967:Measuringspatialeffectsinpresence
ofinstitutionalconstraints:thecaseof
ItalianLocalHealthAuthorityexpenditure
VincenzoAtella,FedericoBelotti,Domenico
DepaloandAndreaPianoMortari
No. 966:Bankbonds:size,systemicrelevance
andthesovereign
AndreaZaghini
No. 965:Behindandbeyondthe
(headcount)employmentrate
AndreaBrandoliniandElianaViviano
No. 964:Foreignexchangereserve
diversi0icationandthe"exorbitant
privilege"
PietroCova,PatrizioPaganoand
MassimilianoPisani
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No.254:A feasible unemployment-based
shock absorber for the euro area
(November2014)
theseindicestoselectedcon0igurationsofthe
parameterstomakecross-countrycomparisons.
Fulltext(pdf)
AndreaBrandolini,FrancescaCartaandFrancesco
D’Amuri
No.252:DeJlationary shocks and
de-anchoring of inJlation
expectations (November2014)
T
hispapercontributestothedebateonthe
designofacentralised0iscaltoolabsorbing
country-speci0icnegativeshocksintheeuroarea.
Basedontheoreticalinsights,itidenti0iesthe
broadcharacteristicsthatashockabsorber
basedonunemploymentshouldhaveinorderto
beincentive-compatibleandpoliticallyfeasible.
Itthenderivesempiricallythecombinationof
activationthresholds,experiencerating,
eligibilitycriteria,andbene0itgenerositywhich
de0inethesystemsofferingthehighest
stabilisationforgivenlevelsofredistribution,
accountingforthelargevariationinbene0ittakeupratesacrossEuropeancountries.Theanalysis
suggeststhattheshockabsorbershould:i)give
risetomacrocross-nationaltransfers,mimicking
thosethatwouldbegeneratedbyanotional
euro-wideunemploymentbene0itschemeof
minimalcoverageandgenerosity;ii)beactivated
byatrigger;andiii)featurepartialexperience
rating.Thesimulationresults,con0irmedby
robustnesschecks,showthatevensystemsthat
donotredistributeresourcesbetweencountries
canhaveaconsiderablestabilisationimpactin
themediumrun.Lowbene0ittake-upinSouthern
Europesubstantiallyreducesthestabilisation
propertiesandthesizeofthescheme.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.253:Accounting for total work
(November2014)
AndreaBrandoliniandElianaViviano
W
eanalysehowaccountingforhousehold
productioncouldaffectlabourmarket
statistics.Thistopichasgrowninimportance
sincethereleaseofthenewSystemofNational
Accountsin2008.Becausethetraditional
headcountratiosfocussingonthenumberof
peoplecarryingoutsomehomeandsomemarket
productionmaynotbeveryinformative,we
proposeageneralclassofindicesbasedonthe
timespentoneachtypeofworkthat
encompassesheadcountindicators.Weapply
9
FabioBusetti,GiuseppeFerrero,AndreaGeraliand
AlbertoLocarno
A
prolongedperiodoflowin0lationcan
heightentheriskofin0lationexpectations
de-anchoringfromthecentralbank’sobjective,
particularlywhenmonetarypolicyratesare
nearthezerolowerbound.Thispaper
investigatestheeffectsofasequenceof
de0lationaryshocksonexpected/realized
in0lationandoutput.Todosoweconsidera
simpleNewKeynesianmodelwhereagentshave
incompleteinformationabouttheworkingof
theeconomyandformexpectationsthroughan
adaptivelearningprocess(inthesensethat
theybehavelikeeconometricians,using
regressionstoanticipatethefuturevalueofthe
variablesofinterest).Themodelissimulated
witheuroareadataovertheperiod2014-16
underassumptionsofbothrationalexpectations
andlearning.Themain0indingsarethe
following:(i)underlearning,pricedynamicsin
2015-16is0.6percentagepointsloweron
averagethaninthecaseoffullyrationalagents,
asin0lationexpectationsarestronglyaffected
byrepeatedde0lationaryshocks;(ii)the
learningprocessimpliesa(data-driven)deanchoringofin0lationexpectationsfromthe
centralbank’starget,whichwouldbeperceived
byeconomicagentstofallto0.8percentatthe
endof2016;(iii)outputexpectationswould
alsobelowerinthecaseoflearning,resultingin
aslowerrecoveryofeconomicactivity.
Fulltext(pdf)
No.251:Do Jirm-bank relationships affect
Jirms’ internationalization?
(November2014)
RiccardoDeBonis,GiovanniFerriandZenoRotondi
T
hegoalofthispaperistoinvestigatethelink
betweenthelengthofa0irm-bankrelationship
and0irm’sinternationalization.Theanalysisis
carriedoutonmatched0irm-bankmicro-datafrom
asurveyofItalianenterprisesfrom1998to2003.
Weobtaintwomainresults.First,alonger
relationshipwiththemainbankfosters0irms’
foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)whileitdoesnot
affecttheexportstatusoftheenterprisesnot
engaginginFDI.Second,theprobabilityofa0irm
undertakingFDIfurtherincreasesifitsmainbank
isitselfinternationalizedbyholdingforeign
subsidiaries.Fulltext(pdf)
ariseforItalian0irms.Projectswillbeassessedby
lookingbeyondtheinitialbidprice:qualityand
life-cyclepro0itabilitywillbemorerelevant,
representingapotentialadvantagetoItalian0irms
usedtomanaginglarge,complexprojects.Onthe
otherhand,amorewidespreaduseofnational
procurementprocedurescouldresultina
comparativedisadvantagefornon-local0irms.
Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.250:Beyond the acronyms: local
property taxation in Italy
(November2014)
No.248:Domestic and foreign sales:
complements or substitutes?
(November2014)
GiovannaMessinaandMarcoSavegnago
MatteoBugamelli,EugenioGaiottiandEliana
Viviano
T
hepapertracesrecentdevelopmentsinlocal
realestatetaxationinItaly.Weexploitarich
datasetatbothaggregateandindividuallevelto
estimatethevariationinlocaltaxeson0irsthomes
inthelastthreeyearsandtheredistributiveimpact
oftheadoptionofthetaxonindivisibleservicesin
2014.Localpropertytaxeson0irsthomesaverage
one0ifthlowerin2014thanin2012;including
wastedisposaltaxes,theoveralllocal0iscalburden
remainsbroadlystable.However,taxationbears
moreheavilyonlower-incomehouseholds,owingto
decreasedallowancefortaxdeductions.To
conclude,thepaperexaminespossiblefuturelocal
propertytaxreformmeasures(keepingtotal
revenueconstant)toenhancetransparencyand
equity.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.249:The World Bank’s procurement
competition and the Italian
construction industry
(November2014)
MicheleBenvenuti,LucaCasolaro,TindaroPaganini
andUmbertoViviani
T
heWorldBank’sprocurementsector
performsyearlyoperationsrangingfrom$20
to$40billion,halfofwhich0inancingcivilworks.
TheshareofcontractsassignedtoItalian0irms
peakedat4percentin2007-2012(6percentin
thecivilworkssector),signi0icantlyimprovingthe
leveloftheprevious2001-2006period;Italy
rankedasthefourthcountryinoverallvalue.
Theseprojectsarecarriedoutbyasmallnumber
of0irms,arelargeinsize,situatedinrelatively
closemarkets(EasternEuropeandCentralAsia)
andmainlyrelatedtotransportation.TheWorld
Bank’sprocurementproceduresarecurrently
underrevision.Bothopportunitiesandrisksmay
10
H
owarethedynamicsofforeignanddomestic
salescorrelatedatthe0irmlevel?The
questionisrelevantinthatthesignofthe
correlationshapestheinternationaltransmission
ofshocksandtheeffectsofpolicymeasures.From
atheoreticalperspective,thecorrelationcouldbe
eitherzero,asassumedbystandardinternational
trademodels,ornegativeif0irmsarecapacity
constrained,orpositiveifliquidityconstraints
dominate.Theempiricalevidence,however,is
rathermixed.UsingasampleofItalian
manufacturing0irmsintheperiod2001-12,we
showthat:i)thesignofthecorrelationchanges
overthebusinesscycle,beingnegativeinthe0irst
partofthepastdecadeandpositiveafterthe2008
crisis;ii)allthechannelssuggestedbythe
literatureareinvolvedandtheymayexplainthe
time-varyingcorrelation;iii)thedropindomestic
salesbyItalian0irmsin2012,contributed
negativelyto0irms’exports,andtogetherwith
liquidityconstraints,thefallreducedthegrowth
rateofexportsbyanaverageof0.6percentage
points.Fulltext(pdf)
No.247:How the labour market evaluates
Italian universities
(November2014)
EmanueleCianiandVincenzoMariani
W
eanalysehowthelabourmarketimplicitly
evaluatesItaly’shighereducationsystemby
estimatingdifferencesinemploymentand
earningsacrossuniversities.Weuseourestimates
toproducethreerankingsofuniversitiesbased,
respectively,onemployment,earningsand
employment-weightedearnings.Bycontrollingfor
alargesetofcovariates,weisolateeachuniversity
effectonemploymentandearningsfrom
additionalcomponentsin0luencinggraduates'
labourmarketoutcomes,namelytheuniversity’s
0ieldofspecialization,thegraduates'observable
characteristicsandtheirlocallabourmarkets.To
accountforthelatter,weincludegraduates'
employmentrateintheregionofresidenceamong
thecovariatesbutweinstrumentitwithprior
residenceinordertocorrectforendogenous
sorting.Wediscussprosandconsofour
methodologyandcompareourresultswithother
availableuniversityrankings.Fulltext(pdf)
No.246:Regional policies to foster Jirms’
innovation activity
(November2014)
FrancescaLottiandMariaLuciaStefani
F
ollowingtheconstitutionalreformof2001,
whichgaveincreasedautonomyItalian
regions,andthenewEuropeanguidelinesfrom
theLisbonAgenda,therehasbeenanupturnin
regionallegislativeactivityconcerninginnovation,
leadingtoacriticalreviewoftheinstruments
adopted,mainlytowardsgreaterselectivity.
Regionalinterventiontendstobehighly
fragmented,focusingonthefundingofapplied
researchandusinggrantsasthepreferredpolicy
tool.Intermsofsourcesoffunds,structuralfunds
havegainedimportancesincethe2007-13
programmingcycle,partlyduetotheeconomic
crisis,andinthesouthernregionsaccountfor
nearlyalltheresourcesdevotedtofostering
innovation.Thispaperpresentsasummary
indicator,consistingofthree"sub-indicators"
approximating,respectively,theinputofthe
innovationprocess,innovationoutput,anda
quantitativemeasureofregionalpoliciesfor
innovation.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly
No.245:Just round the corner? Pros, cons,
and implementation issues of a
Jiscal union for the euro area
(November2014)
FabrizioBalassone,SandroMomigliano,Marzia
RomanelliandPietroTommasino
T
heexperienceofothersuccessfulmonetary
unionsandeconomictheorysuggestthatthe
euroareawouldbene0itfromtheestablishmentof
asupranational0iscalcapacity.Institutional
reformspromptedbythecrisis(e.g.,theEuropean
11
StabilityMechanismandthebankingunion)are
introducing–thoughtoalimitedextent–
elementsofcross-countryrisksharing.
Nevertheless,furtherstepsareprobablyneeded.
Proposalstocreateasortofrainy-dayfundpresent
majorpracticaldif0iculties–associated,interalia,to
theuncertaintycharacterizingtheidenti0icationof
shocksinrealtime.Amoreappropriatesolution,
consistentwithhowrisksharingoperatesin
existingfederations,maybecentralizingspeci0ic
publicfunctions(forinstance,byintroducinga
commonunemploymentbene0itscheme).Weargue
thatconsiderationcouldalsobegiventothe
creationofaeuro-wide,notionalde0inedcontributionpensionscheme.Fulltext(pdf)
No.244:The role of leverage in Jirm
solvency: evidence from bank
loans (October2014)
EmiliaBonaccorsidiPatti,AlessioD’Ignazio,Marco
GalloandGiacintoMicucci
T
hetworecessionsthathavehitItalysincethe
endof2008haveraisedtheshareofnonperformingloanstobusinessesinbanks’
portfoliossubstantially.Inthispaperweevaluate
towhatextentthedeteriorationofcreditquality
wasduenotonlytothedeclinein0irms’sales
duringthecontractionofeconomicactivity,butalso
tothelevelof0irms’0inancialdebtattheonsetof
the0irstrecession.Ourresultsshowthat,other
thingsbeingequal,atenpercentagepointincrease
inleverageisassociatedwithahigherprobabilityof
defaultofalmostonepercentagepoint.Moreover,
theadverseimpactofafallinsalesona0irm’s
solvencyisalmostfourtimesgreaterfor0irmsin
thehighestquartileoftheleveragedistribution
thanfor0irmsinthe0irstquartile.These0indings
con0irmthat0irms’0inancialstructurecanbea
powerfulampli0ierofmacroeconomicshocks.A
higherlevelofleveragereduces0irms’resilience
duringarecession,andthisinturnweakensthe
balance-sheetsofbanksandthustheirabilityto
providecredit.Fulltext(pdf)
No.243:Foreign direct investment and
multinational Jirms (October2014)
AlessandroBorinandRiccardoCristadoro
S
incetheearly1990sinternationalizationhas
movedforwardveryrapidly.Withthe
reorganizationofproductionprocessesonaglobal
scale,theaveragegrowthrateofforeigndirect
investment(FDI)hasexceededthatofGDPand
trade,anditsgeographicalandsectoral
distributionhaschanged.In2012,forthe0irst
timeFDI0lowstodevelopingcountriesoutpaced
thosetodevelopedcountries.Italylagsbehindasa
destinationforFDIin0lowsandalsoasan
originatorofFDIout0lows.Theexpansionof
Italianmultinationalsinthe'90swaslargely
drivenbyinvestmentintraditionalindustriesand
inEasternEuropeaneconomies.Duringthelast
decadealargershareofItalianFDIhasbeen
directedtowardsthemostdynamicmarketsand
innovativesectors.Italy’sindustrialstructure,
whichlargelyconsistsofsmall0irms,isafactorin
Italy’sdelayinpursuingstableinternationalization
strategies.ComparedwithGermanyandFrance,
Italian0irmsshowasigni0icantlyhigher
propensitytomakeuseofarm'slengthandsubcontractingagreementsratherthanestablishing
productionfacilitiesabroad.
creditandoccurredbetween2010and2012.
Overall,theshareofhouseholdswithmortgage
loansdidnotchange;however,itfellamonglowincomehouseholdsandincreasedamongthosein
thethirdquartileofincome.Thedemandforloans
decreasedsharplyexceptamongyoung
households.Thereductioninindebtednesswas
duetothedrastictighteningofcreditsupply
conditionsintheperiod.Theindicatorsofdebt
sustainability,inparticulartheratioofdebtto
income,begantoworsenin2010;formortgage
creditthedeclinehasinvolvedhouseholdsheaded
byself-employedworkersandthoseinthethird
incomequartile.Forthesehouseholds,repayment
arrearshaveincreased;arrearsaremorefrequent
formortgagesgrantedbeforethecrisis.Theshare
ofhouseholdswithhighdebtserviceandbelowmedianincomeisaboutthesameasin2008,and
oursimulationssuggestthatitwillchangeonly
slightlyin2014-2015.
No.240:Energy poverty in Italy
(October2014)
No.242:InJlation, debt and the zero lower
bound (October2014)
IvanFaiellaandLucianoLavecchia
StefanoNeriandAlessandroNotarpietro
T
hispaperanalysesthemacroeconomiceffects
ofaprotractedperiodoflowandfalling
in0lationrateswhenmonetarypolicyis
constrainedbythezerolowerbound(ZLB)on
nominalinterestratesandtheprivatesectoris
indebtedinnominalterms(debt-de0lation
channel).Inthisscenario,evencost-pushshocks
thatinnormalcircumstanceswouldreduce
in0lationandstimulateoutputarefoundtohave
contractionaryeffectsoneconomicactivity,
especiallywhentheinterplayofZLBanddebt
de0lationisconsidered.Fulltext(pdf)
No.241:The household credit market after
Jive years of crisis: evidence from
the survey on income and wealth
(October2014)
SilviaMagriandRaffaellaPico
H
alfadecadeofcrisishashadasubstantial
impactonthemarketforcredittoItalian
households.From2008through2012theshareof
indebtedhouseholdsdecreasedby4percentage
points,to23percent;amongyounghouseholdsit
fellby12points.Thedeclineinvolvedconsumer
12
D
espitetheexistenceoftwotargetednational
programmes(“Bonusgas”and“Bonus
energia”)inItalythereisnoof0icialde0initionof
energypoverty(EP).Thepurposeofthisstudyis
toprovidethereaderwithasetofindicatorsto0ill
thisgap.Wepresentarangeofpovertymeasures
whichestimatethatbetween5and20percentof
householdswasinEPin2012.Aselectionbased
onqualitativecriteriasuggeststheuseofalowincome/high-costsindicatormodi0iedtoinclude
theeconomicallyvulnerablehouseholdswithno
heatingexpenses.Accordingtothisstatisticthe
proportionofhouseholdsinEPduringtheperiod
1997-2012wasbroadlystableataround8per
cent.Oursimulationsindicatethatthetools
availabletocounterEPinItalywouldhaveyielded
amodestreductioninenergyvulnerable
households.
Other recent occasional papers
September 2014
No.239:Geographyofinternationalization
statistics
ChiaraBentivogli,GiacomoOddoand
ValeriaPellegrini
No.238:Financinglong-terminvestment:
ongoinginitiativesandthemainpolicy
directions
GiuseppeGrandeandGiovanniGuazzarotti
No.237:Surprise!Euroareain0lationhas
fallen
MariannaRiggiandFabrizioVenditti
No.236:Exploring0lowstotaxhavens
throughmeansofagravitymodel:
evidencefromItaly
AlessiaCassetta,ClaudioPauselli,Lucia
RizzicaandMarcoTonello
No.229:Territories,logisticsservicesand
infrastructures:asurveyof
manufacturers
EnricoBerettaandAndreaMigliardi
No.228:EuroArea(cross-border?)banking
PierluigiBolognaandMariannaCaccavaio
No.227:Themacroprudentialmeasures
adoptedinEuropefortherealestate
sector
DanieleCiani,WandaCornacchiaand
PaoloGarofalo
No.226:Italiantradeanddirectinvestmentin
NorthAfrica
RiccardoSettimo
No.225:Amicrosimulationmodeltoevaluate
Italianhouseholds’0inancialvulnerability
ValentinaMichelangeliandMario
Pietrunti
No.235:EUbankdeleveraging
PierluigiBologna,MariannaCaccavaioand No.224:Infrastructureinvestmentsinthe
mainemergingcountries
ArianaMiglietta
LorenzoBencivelli,AnnalisaBucalossi,
No.234:Consumercreditduringthecrisis:
LuigiConcistrè,RaffaeleDeMarchi,Giorgio
evidencefromcontracts
Merlonghi,ValeriaRolliandGiorgio
PierpaoloCristaudo,SilviaMagri,Raffaella
Trebeschi
PicoandMariaGiovannaZavallone
No.223:Thesurveyoninternational
No.233:Exploringpriceandnon-price
merchandisetransportofItaly:methods
determinantsoftrade0lowsinthelargest
andresults
euro-areacountries
EnricoPastori,MiriamTagliavia,Enrico
ClaireGiordanoandFrancescoZollino
TostiandSimonettaZappa
No.232:Shocktransmissionthrough
July 2014
internationalbanks:theItaliancase
No.222:Analysing0inancialvulnerabilityby
MariannaCaccavaio,LuisaCarpinelli,
incomegroup
GiuseppeMarinelliandEnricoSette
PaoloAcciari,ElisabettaManzoli,Sauro
No.231:Thesecularstagnationhypothesis:a
MocettiandElianaViviano
reviewofthedebateandsomeinsights
No.221:Diffusionandoutlookof0irm-level
PatrizioPaganoandMassimoSbracia
bargaininginItaly
No.230:Foreigndirectinvestmentand
FrancescoD’AmuriandCristina
institutionalquality
Giorgiantonio
AlessandroBorin,RiccardoCristadoroand
No.220:InternationaltourisminItaly
ElenaMattevi
AndreaAlivernini,EmanueleBredaand
EvaIannario
13
R
B
I
-N
N
37,D
2014
Workshopsandconferences
GuglielmoBarone,GuidodeBlasioandPaoloSestito
KarstenStaehr,LivioStracca,TeresaTer-Minassian,
PietroTommasino,AlessandroTurrini,Hernando
Vargas,SergeyVlasov,FrancescoZollino
T
T
No.17: SocialCapital,theEconomyand
EconomicPolicy(November2014)
hevolumecollectstheessayspresentedatthe
conference"Socialcapital,economicsand
politicaleconomy"heldinRomeon27June2014.
The;irstsessionanalyzesde;initionand
measurementissuesaboutsocialcapital.The
secondandthirdsessionsexamineits
determinantsandeconomiceffects,respectively.
Thefourthsessionisdevotedtotherelationship
betweensocialcapitalandthepublicsectorwhile
thelastsessionconcentratesontheroleofsocial
capitalincreditmarkets.
No.16: Fiscalpolicyandmacroeconomic
imbalances(November2014)
LucaAgnello,AnaMaríaAguilar,FabioBalboni,
EmanueleBaldacci,SebastianBarnes,Antonio
Bassanetti,AdiBrender,Anne-MarieBrook,Matteo
Bugamelli,SaschaBützer,PanagiotisChronis,
CarlosCuerpo,JorgeCunha,RobertaDeStefani,
ElenaDeryugina,FrancescoDComite,Inês
Drumond,GillesDufrenot,KazuhikoEjima,Jonas
Fischer,DanieleFranco,NielsGilbert,Raffaela
Giordano,GabrieleGiudice,RaufGönenç,Andrés
González,SanjeevGupta,FuadHasanov,Sebastian
Hauptmeier,DavidHeald,deCosPabloHernández,
GarcíaCarlosHerrero,JeroenHessel,Gonzáles
PedroHinojo,IdaHjortsø,AlexandrHobza,Ana
TeresaHolandadeAlbuquerque,SerranoJuan
FranciscoJimeno,ChristinaJordan,Christophe
Kamps,RamazanKaraşahin,ChristianKastrop,
AlexanderKlemm,VincentKoen,WalpurgaKöhlerTöglhofer,RadoslavKrastev,GeertLangenus,Jean.
LePavec,NadineLeiner-Killinger,JuliaLendvai,
MirkoLicchetta,IgnacioLozano,Ranjana
Madhusudhan,RodríguezPilarMas,Sandro
Momigliano,DanielMonteiro,MarialuzMoreno
Badia,LaurentMoulin,AtriMukherjee,Carlos
Mulas-Granados,GeorgePalaiodimos,LucioPench,
MarcelloPericoli,PeterPontuch,RafalRaciborski,
BulosClaudiaRamírez,ErnestoRezk,BrazCláudia
Rodrigues,OliverRöhn,RasmusRüffer,Roberto
Sabbatini,JohannesScheubeand,AlexSeguraUbiergo,DavidSondermann,RicardoM.Sousa,
hevolumecollectstheessayspresentedatthe
15thWorkshoponPublicFinanceorganisedby
Bancad'ItaliainPerugiafrom4to6April2013.
Theworkshopfocusedonthelinkbetween;iscal
policyandmacroeconomicimbalancesand
comprisedfoursessions.The;irstsession
concentratedontheinteractionbetween;iscal
policyandmacroeconomicimbalances.The
secondsessiondealtwiththespeci;icproblemsof
theeuroarea,whereinsuf;icientattentionto
macroeconomicdevelopmentscontributedto
increase;iscaland;inancialtensions.Thethird
sessionscrutinized;iscalpolicywithaneyetothe
inequalitiesofemergingeconomiesandresourcerichcountries.Thelastsessionanalysedthe
experiencessofarandthepotentialprescriptions
abouttheuseof;iscaltoolsinaddressing
macroeconomicproblems.
Fulltext(pdf)
14
Selection of Journal articles
and books by Bank of Italy staff
Authors’ names in boldface: Bank of Italy
Fulllistsince1990
Forthcoming
AtkinsonA.andBrandolini A.,“UnveilingtheEthics
behindInequalityMeasurement:Dalton’s
ContributiontoEconomics”,EconomicJournal.
Barone G.andS. Mocetti,“NaturalDisasters,Growth
andInstitutions:aTaleofTwoEarthquakes”,
JournalofUrbanEconomics.(WPNo.949)
Brandolini A.,“TheBigChill.ItalianFamilyBudgetsafter
theGreatRecession”,inC.FusaroandA.Kreppel(eds.),
ItalianPolitics2013,NewYork,Berghahn.
Bugamelli M., S. FabianiandE. Sette,“TheAgeofthe
Dragon:TheEffectofImportsfromChinaonFirmlevelPrices”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking.
(WPNo.737)
Bulligan G.,M.MarcellinoandF. Venditti,“Forecasting
EconomicActivitywithTargetedPredictors”,
InternationalJournalofForecasting.
Dalmazzo A., P. Pin andD. Scalise,“Communitiesand
SocialInef0iciencywitheterogeneousgroups”,
JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl.
de Blasio F., D. Fantino andG. Pellegrini,
“EvaluatingtheImpactofInnovationIncentives:
EvidencefromanUnexpectedShortageofFunds”,
IndustrialandCorporateChange.(WPNo.792)
Gobbi, G. andE. Sette,“RelationshipLendingDuringa
FinancialCrisis”,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomic
Association.
Marconi D.andF.Sanna-Randaccio,“TheClean
developmentMechanismandTechnologyTransfer
toChina”,inR.vanTulderetal.(eds.),Progressin
InternationalBusinessResearch;Vol8;International
BusinessandSustainableDevelopment.Emerald
GroupPublishingLimited.(OPNo.129)
Mercatanti A., “BayesianInferenceforRandomized
ExperimentswithNoncomplianceandNonignorable
MissingData”,inA.Paganoni,P.Secchi(eds.),
Advancesincomplexdatamodellingand
computationalmethodsinstatistics,Springer.
Stacchini M. andP.Degasperi,“Trust,FamilyBusiness
andFinancialIntermediation”,JournalofCorporate
Finance.
________________________________________________________
Share-AlteringTechnicalChange”,Journalof
RegionalScience,v.54,2,pp.249-272.
Accetturo A.,G. de Blasio andL.Ricci,
“ATaleofanUnwantedOutcome:Transfersand
LocalEndowmentsofTrustandCooperation”,
JournalofEconomicBehaviorandOrganization,v.
102,pp.74-89.
Accetturo A.,F. Manaresi,S. Mocetti andE. Olivieri,
“Don'tStandSoClosetoMe:TheUrbanImpactof
Immigration”,RegionalScienceandUrban
Economics,v.45,pp.45-56.(WPNo.866)
Albertazzi U.,T. Ropele,G. Sene andF. M. Signoretti,
“TheImpactoftheSovereignDebtCrisisonthe
ActivityofItalianBanks”,JournalofBankingand
Finance,v.46,pp.387-402.
Albertazzi U.andM. Bottero,“ForeignBankLending:
EvidencefromtheGlobalFinancialCrisis”,Journalof
InternationalEconomics,v.92,1,pp.22-35.
(WPNo.926)
Andini M.andC.Andini,“Finance,GrowthandQuantile
ParameterHeterogeneity”,Journalof
Macroeconomics,v.40,pp.308-22.
Angelini P., S. Neri andF. Panetta,“TheInteraction
betweenCapitalRequirementsandMonetary
Policy”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.46,6,
pp.1073-1112.(WPNo.801)
BaduccoS.and F. Caprioli,“OptimalFiscalPolicyina
SmallOpenEconomywithLimitedCommitment”,
JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.93,2,pp.302-315.
Barbiellini Amidei, F. andC. Giordano,Theredesign
ofthebank-industry-0inancialmarkettiesintheU.S
Glass-Steagallandthe1936ItalianBankingActs,in
P.Clement,James,H.,VanderWee,H.(eds.),
FinancialInnovation,RegulationandCrisesin
History,London,Pickering&ChattoPublishers
Bardozzetti A.andD. Dottori,“ForeignCollective
ActionClauses:HowDoTheyAffectSovereignBond
Yields?”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.92,2,
pp.286-303.
BarigozziM.,A. Conti and M.Luciani,“DoEuroArea
CountriesRespondAsymmetricallytotheCommon
MonetaryPolicy?”,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsand
Statistics,v.76,5,pp.693-714.(WPNo.923)
BragaM., M. PaccagnellaandM.Pellizzari,“Evaluating
Students’EvaluationsofProfessors”,Economicsof
EducationReview,v.41,pp.71-88.(WPNo.825)
Bronzini R.andE. Iachini,“AreIncentivesforR&D
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