Use of Climate Information in Agricultural Risk Management Decisions

Use of Climate Information
in Agricultural Risk
Management Decisions
Tonya Haigh
Research Specialist – Rural Sociology
National Drought Mitigation Center
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Co-authors: Dr. Michael Hayes (NDMC, UNL) Dr. Karina Schoengold
(UNL), Dr. Brad Lubben (UNL), Dr. Tsegaye Tadesse (NDMC, UNL)
What have we learned about how farmers use
climate information to manage climate risks?
U2U – CAP Survey - 2012
CAFIO Survey - 2014
Farmers say they are not very
influenced by climate information
100
Percent of farmers
“moderately to strongly
influenced” by each of the
following types of
weather/climate information:
90
80
70
Historical
Past12Months
60
Currentweather
50
one_sevenDayForecast
40
eight_fourteenDayOutlook
30
Monthly_SeasonalOutlook
Annual_Longer_termOutlook
20
10
0
1
Farmers are uncertain about using
seasonal climate forecasts
in decision-making
Unwilling
20%
Question: How willing are
you to use climate forecasts
to help make decisions
about agricultural practices?
Uncertain
44%
Willing
36%
We would like climate information
to influence farm decision-making
like this:
Information
about future
climate
conditions
Farmer’s
expectations of
future weather
Farmer
decisions
But in practice, the process looks
more like this:
Yields,
Income,
Natural
Resource
Outcomes
External Factors
Social
Factors
Internal
Factors
Farmer’s past
experiences
Options
available
Farmer
decisions
Production
and Land
Use
Practices
Expectations of
future weather,
markets, input
prices etc.
Incomplete
Information
about multiple
future conditions
(weather,
markets, input
prices, policies)
Credit Risby et al.
Farmers are heterogeneous in their
concerns about climate risks
Percent of farmers concerned about flooding, extreme
rains, drought, and heat stress for their farm
63%
65%
71%
11%
19%
25%
31%
40%
59%
72%
South Dakota
77%
Nebraska
83%
Iowa
FLOODS
EXTREME RAINFALL
DROUGHT
HEAT STRESS ON CROPS
Farmers make decisions about many
types of risk management strategies
Percent of farmers using each type of risk management strategy
79%
76%
57%
53%
32%
32%
27%
7%
Farmers are heterogeneous in their
use of risk management strategies
Proportion of farmers by state using risk management
strategies
Nebraska
South Dakota
ANY IRRIGATION
49%
17%
10%
2%
9%
4%
32%
44%
48%
56%
61%
67%
Iowa
NO-TILL
NON-CONVENTIONAL
CROPS
LIVESTOCK AND CROPS
Farmers consider many factors when
making decisions about tillage
44%
No-Till
Reduced Till
Conventional Till
17%
17%
9%
8%
9%
4%
1%
1%
1%
13%
11%
23%
25%
30%
32%
28%
15%
17%
19%
26%
39%
42%
41%
Most important factors in choosing tillage system
Farmers consider many factors in
decisions about crops and rotations
Most important factors in choosing cropping system by system
Non-Conventional Crops
Drought Tolerant Varieties
Corn/Soybean/Wheat or C/S Rotation
19%
10%
8%
9%
16%
10%
10%
9%
8%
5%
8%
9%
16%
16%
18%
19%
22%
27%
24%
25%
25%
26%
5%
5%
7%
6%
9%
6%
8%
9%
17%
24%
42%
40%
44%
47%
All
Take-away
Farmers are a diverse group of stakeholders
with diverse needs for climate and weather
information
A better understanding of the needs of specific
groups, and how/when decisions are made,
should lead to more usable, and more widelyused, climate information
Thank you!
Tonya Haigh
National Drought Mitigation Center
402-472-6781
[email protected]
http://drought.unl.edu
http://http://cafio.unl.edu/prg