Statement of Work Wildfire-Terrorism Risk Assessment

Statement of Work
Wildfire-Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Study
1. Principal Investigator: Dr. Hugh Medal
2. Institution: Mississippi State University (MSU)
3. Co-Investigators: Dr. Jason Gordon (MSU); Dr. Robert Grala (MSU); Dr. Morgan Varner (MSU)
4. Brief Description:
Recent history has demonstrated that wildfires are tremendously destructive. Although wildfires have
historically been though of as natural hazards, evidence has shown that terrorists have interest in
igniting fires (Bendle, 2009; Deshpande, 2009; DHS, 2012; Inspire, 2012). This project will study
pyro-terrorism, which is defined as the use by non-state organisations of large-scale fires to attack,
intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in order to advance
political, social or religious objectives (Bendle, 2009).
We now know that terrorists recognize the high cost-benefit ratio of pyro-terrorism: a recent AlQaeda-affiliated magazine article instructed terrorists that wildfires are not only highly destructive, but
also easy to ignite (Inspire, 2012). In addition, would-be terrorists were instructed to identify wildfire
targets based on factors such as weather and elevation (Inspire, 2012). Pyro-terrorism events have been
documented in Israel, France, Spain, and Greece (Baird, 2006; Deshpande, 2009). As a result, both
DHS and the FBI are concerned about this novel threat (DHS, 2012; FBI, 2012).
Although there are enough studies of pyro-terrorism to demonstrate that the threat exists (Baird,
2006 Deshpande, 2009; Fighel 2009), not enough is known to even develop a pilot risk assessment.
This project will take a proactive approach towards mitigating against this novel threat by performing a
pilot risk assessment of pyro-terrorism in the United States. If this pilot project demonstrates that
pyro-terrorism is a significant risk, we will propose follow-on work to further investigate this risk.
5. Objectives:
This research will conduct a three-part pilot risk assessment consisting of: 1) a consequence
assessment (CA), 2) a likelihood assessment (LA), and 3) a vulnerability assessment (VA). Specifically,
this study will provide the following new analyses:
1. analysis of the consequences of wildfires with multiple-ignition sites (which is a likely
case for pyro-terrorism) (CA),
2. an analysis of pyro-terrorism-related content on the internet (LA), and
3. a survey of managers' attitudes and behaviors toward pyro-terrorism (VA).
The goal of this pilot study is to educate the homeland security community about pyro-terrorism
and generate interest, providing the groundwork for additional work. If this pilot study sufficiently
demonstrates that pyro-terrorism is an important risk, we will propose a follow-on project, which will
provide a more comprehensive risk assessment. Phase One of this follow-on work will involve creating
a dataset with geo-coded consequence, likelihood, and vulnerability assessments. Phase Two will use
optimization modeling to develop strategies for mitigating against pyro-terrorism.
6. Tasks:
Task One: Literature survey
Description and Scope: The goal of this task is survey the literature on pyro-terrorism, limiting the
survey to literature within the public domain, focusing on academic literature, governmental reports,
and periodicals.
Methods and Subtasks: We will search academic databases such as Google Scholar and EBSCO for
journal articles, reports, and periodicals using keywords and boolean operators. For each article found,
we will use its list of references to identify additional articles and also use Google Scholar to find
articles that cite the original article.
Deliverables: This task will produce a report of the literature on pyro-terrorism, written to be
understood by homeland security analysts and fire managers, giving them an accessible summary of the
existing body of research.
Task Two (Consequence Assessment): Analysis of wildfires with multiple, coordinated ignition points
Description and Scope: The goal of this task is to compare the impacts of randomly-occurring wildfires
versus wildfires caused by coordinated pyro-terrorism attacks. Focusing on a landscape area that is
adjacent to a densely-populated area, we will compare the impacts of several wildfire ignition scenarios.
Methods and Subtasks: To measure the impacts of wildfire ignition scenarios, we will use a customized
fire spread computer model that models the spread of fire, accounting for terrain, wind, precipitation,
and other geophysical and weather-related factors. In addition, the model will also account for the
interaction between simultaneous, geographically-dispersed fires.
We will examine the following wildfire ignition scenarios:
1. single-point random ignition. The ignition point and weather conditions are random.
2. multiple-point random ignition. The ignition points and corresponding weather conditions are
random.
3. single-point deliberate ignition. An adversary chooses when and where to ignite a fire. The
location and timing is chosen so as to identify the conditions that will enable the fire to cause
maximal damage.
4. multiple-point deliberate and coordinated ignition. An adversary chooses to ignite multiple
fires, either all at once over over a short span of time. The locations and timings are chosen to
maximize the fire's impact.
We will compare these four scenarios based on several metrics such as:
1. hectares lost due to fire
2. cost of suppression
3. economic losses
4. mortality and morbidity
Deliverables: This scenario analysis will result in a report that describes our findings. In addition to
presenting numerical results, the report will also contain figures to help show the differences in the
impact between the scenarios. In addition to the report, we will also distribute outreach materials such
as:
1. an internal press release / memo to distribute to DHS agencies
2. a fact sheet for homeland security analysts
3. a fact sheet for fire managers
Task Three (Likelihood Assessment): Analysis of pyro-terrorism-related content on the internet
Description and Scope: The goal of this task is to identify successful and intended instances of pyroterrorism as well as quantify the interest level of potential terrorists toward pyro-terrorism.
Methods and Subtasks: To analyze on-line data relating to pyro-terrorism, we will employ a modified
approach combining conventional and summative content analysis. Conventional content analysis is
appropriate when existing theory and literature is limited. In this method, researchers avoid using
preconceived categories, instead allowing the categories and subcategories to stem from coded data
(Morse & Field, 1995). To prepare for reporting the findings, exemplars for each code and category are
identified from the data. Depending on the purpose of the study, researchers might decide to further
identify the relationship between categories and subcategories based on their concurrence, antecedents,
or consequences (Morse & Field, 1995). As words from the texts are coded, frequency of occurrence is
noted to explore usage. For example, a terrorist discussion board would be analyzed for the number of
terms associated with fire: e.g., burn, heat, scorch, fry, etc. A summative approach to qualitative
content analysis goes beyond mere word counts to include latent content analysis whereby the focus is
on discovering underlying meanings of the words or the content (Morse & Field, 1995). Validity will
be confirmed through triangulation with subsequent project methods.
Deliverables: This task will culminate in a report on our findings. This report will include statistical
analysis and commentary. In addition, we will combine terrorism-related wildfire instances into a
dataset.
Task Four (Vulnerability Assessment): Survey of managers' attitudes toward pyro-terrorism
Description and Scope: The goal of this task is to assess the attitudes and behaviors of homeland
security and wildland managers with regard to pyro-terrorism. In particular, we will assess the
following:
1. their risk perception of pyro-terrorism
2. their preparedness for pyro-terrorism
To assess these risk attitudes, an online survey will be conducted to determine how perceptions
of potential pyro-terrorism attacks differ across various groups of stakeholders. Participants will be
selected from among academics, Department of Homeland Security analysts, fire managers and
foresters, security experts, and others.
Methods and Subtasks: To identify participants, we will start by working with our existing contacts at
agencies such as DHS and the U.S. Forest Service to identify new contacts. We will also identify an
initial list of participants through directories. To build our initial list, we will use the “snowball
sampling” method, in which we ask participants to pass along the survey to others and provide
additional contacts.
The survey questionnaire will be pretested by U.S. Forest Service, U.S. National Park Service,
and Department of Homeland Security representatives. The questions of the survey will explore topics
such as:
1. the potential link between wildfire and terrorism,
2. anecdotal evidence of wildfire terrorism events,
3. wildfire terrorism as an unknown risk,
4. wildfire terrorism as a dreaded risk,
5. contingencies for addressing wildfire terrorism events, and
6. risk mitigation options.
Responses will be aggregated and analyzed following a procedure that eliminates idiosyncratic
answers and respondent error (c.f., Schwartz et al. 2001).
The survey will be conducted online by using the software tool Qualtrics, of which Mississippi
State University has a site license.
Deliverables: This task will result in a report describing our survey findings, containing statistical
analysis and a discussion of the results.
7. Collaboration, Dissemination, and Education Plan
Collaboration: In order to create synergy with previous projects, we will attempt to use results from a
project funded by the Fire Prevention and Safety grant program at FEMA.
Education and Dissemination: To help educate practitioners about the implications of our findings, we
will disseminate fact sheets that summarize the results of our project (tasks 1—4).
We plan to disseminate our results to the academic community by presenting our work at a
technical conference. In addition, we will disseminate our project report and fact sheets to the
following agencies:
 FEMA Grants Program Directorate
 DHS Office of Strategy, Planning, Analysis, and Risk (SPAR)
 National Interagency Fire Center
 International Association of Fire Chiefs
 DHS Office of Policy (PLCY)
 Emergency Services-Sector Specific Agency withing the National Protection and Programs
Directorate, Office of Infrastructure Protection, DHS
References:
Baird, Robert A., "Pyro-Terrorism: The Threat of Arson-Induced Forest Fires as a Future Terrorist
Weapon of Mass Destruction", Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 29, 5 (2006), pp. 415—428.
Bendle, Mervyn F., "Australia's nightmare: bushfire jihad and pyroterrorism", National Observer
(Council for the National Interest, Melbourne) 79 (2009), pp. 8--22.
Department of Homeland Security, "Terrorist Interest in Using Fire as a Weapon" (2012).
Deshpande, Nick, "Pyro-Terrorism: Recent Cases and the Potential for Proliferation", Studies in
Conflict & Terrorism 32, 1 (2009), pp. 36—44.
Federal Bureau of Investigation: Denver Devision, "Al-Qaida In The Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
"Inspire" Magazine Encourages The Use Of Wildfires As A Form Of Jihad", Situational Information
Report: Criminal Activity Alert (2012).
Fighel, Jonathan, "The "Forest Jihad"", Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 32, 9 (2009), pp. 802—810.
Inspire, "It is of your freedom to ignite a firebomb", (2012) 30—36.
Morse, J. M., & Field, P. A. (1995). Qualitative research methods for health professionals (2nd ed.).
Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage.