THE WEEK AHEAD - CIBC World Markets

Transcription

The Week Ahead
May 25-29, 2015
QE — Rotating, Not Accelerating Growth
by Andrew Grantham
Economics
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
[email protected]
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
[email protected]
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
[email protected]
Royce Mendes
(416) 594-7354
[email protected]
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
[email protected]
QE. At this stage of the global economic
recovery, what is it good for? Cynics would
answer “absolutely nothing”. And judging
by the impact of recent stimulus in the EZ
and Japan on global growth so far, they may
have a point.
First quarter GDP figures are in the books
for most major economies now (with
Canada to come next week). And it is
becoming more evident that the Eurozone
and Japanese economies are benefitting
from the huge stimulus measures introduced
there. Eurozone growth has been steadily
accelerating, reaching a respectable 0.4%
pace (not annualized) in Q1. Meanwhile
Japanese GDP growth earlier this week
handily beat expectations, posting a 2.4%
annualized pace.
But that growth is being aided by massive
currency depreciations, and as such appears
to have come at the expense of others. GDP
growth figures in the US and the UK—two
areas that have seen appreciations in their
trade-weighted currencies—have recently
disappointed. Even though the US’ small
proportion of exports relative to GDP and
likely weather distortions in Q1 make us
more optimistic than most for the quarter
ahead, averaging out the first half of the year
would show a deceleration (Chart 1).
Chart 1
3
Avg GDP Growth (% SAAR)
And the diminishing returns of QE can be
seen more globally as well. Initial rounds of
asset-buying, during and just after the Great
Recession, appeared to aid acceleration
in industrial production growth in both
advanced and emerging markets. But more
recent stimulus has failed to lift all boats.
While global production accelerated in the
quarters after the Fed’s QE3 announcement,
the lift was very modest and it did little for
growth in emerging markets. Since mid2014 (when the BoJ ramped up stimulus and
the ECB started hinting at QE to come), the
results have been even less decisive (Chart 2).
The stimulus measures undertaken in the
EZ and Japan haven’t done ”absolutely
nothing”. It’s just so far we are seeing a
redistribution of growth globally rather
than an acceleration. The persistence of
generally low inflation rates and pockets
of unemployment (most notably in the EZ)
suggest there is a little more room for global
growth to accelerate. But that may be a
story for 2016, as the stimulus in Europe
and Japan trickles through to boost domestic
demand, and trade with those regions’
key importers. That would support a more
sustainable pick-up in cyclical stocks and
commodities.
Chart 2
1.2
1.0
2
Acceleration/Deceleration in Industrial
Production Growth (%-pts)
Three Quarters
After Sep 2013
Since mid-2014
0.8
0.6
1
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
-0.2
2014 Avg
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
-1
2015 Q1 & Q2 (F) Avg
EZ
Jp
US
Source: Eurostat, BEA, ONS, SBJ, CIBC
UK
-0.4
World
Advanced
Emerging
Source: CPB, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
Friday
May 29
Thursday
May 28
Wednesday
May 27
Tuesday
May 26
Monday
May 25
`
8:30 AM
GDP M/M
GDP (annualized)
(Mar) (H)
(Q1) (H)
(Apr) (M)
(Apr) (M)
(Q1) (M)
(May) (H)
0.3%
0.5%
-$17.8B
0.75%
CIBC
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
8:30 AM
INDUSTRIAL PROD. PRICES M/M
RAW MATERIALS M/M
CURRENT ACCOUNT
10:00 AM
BANK OF CANADA RATE ANNOUNCE.
CANADA
0.2%
0.2%
0.75%
0.0%
2.4%
0.3%
-0.9%
-$13.9B
0.75%
Prior
(May)
(May)
(Apr)
(Apr)
(May)
(May)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US COMPOSITE PMI Preliminary
MARKIT US SERVICES PMI Preliminary
10:00 AM
NEW HOME SALES SAAR
NEW HOME SALES M/M
CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX
(M)
(May)
(May)
9:45 AM
CHICAGO PMI
10:00 AM
MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
(H)
(H)
(H)
Speaker: 2:45 PM Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)
Speaker: 2:20 AM John C Williams (San Francisco)
8:30 AM
GDP (annualized)
(Q1 P)
GDP DEFLATOR (annualized)
(Q1 P)
(L)
(L)
(M)
(May 16)
(May 23)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(M)
(L)
(L)
(M)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(Apr)
10:00 AM
PENDING HOME SALES M/M
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
AUCTION: 7-YR TREASURIES $29B
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
(May 22)
(Mar)
(Mar)
(Mar)
9:00 AM
HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M
S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX
S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y
Speaker: 8:10 PM Jeff Lacker (Richmond)
Speaker: 12:30 PM Stanley Fischer (Fed Vice Chair)
AUCTION: 52-WEEK BILLS $25B
(Apr)
(Apr)
8:30 AM
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M
Speaker: 11:30 PM Stanley Fischer (Fed Vice Chair)
Speaker: 9:10 AM Loretta Mester (Cleveland)
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $241B
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $45B (prev)
MEMORIAL DAY (Holiday) - Markets Closed
UNITED STATES
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus
-0.8%
-0.1%
515K
7.1%
93.4
-1.8%
0.3%
CIBC
90.0
53.0
-0.9%
-0.1%
1.0%
272K
508K
5.6%
95
0.0
56.8
4.6%
0.7%
-0.5%
0.5%
Consensus
88.6
52.3
0.2%
-0.1%
1.1%
2211K
274K
-1.5%
481K
-11.4%
95.2
-3.0
57.0
57.4
0.7%
173.7
5.0%
4.7%
0.3%
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 25-29, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Nick Exarhos and Andrew Grantham
The Bank of Canada has a rate decision on Wednesday, and it’s likely to stand pat at 0.75%.
We aren’t looking for Governor Poloz to provide any more easing this year, and the statement
should reflect some of his more upbeat views on the economic outlook in the back half of
the year. On Thursday we’ll get current account data for Q1, and crude’s slide should drive a
widening in the deficit to $17.8 bn—roughly four billion wider than the last quarter. Friday
should bring some (relatively) better news on the GDP front. Solid gains in manufacturing
and wholesaling, along with economic activity unleashed by the more seasonal weather point
to a 0.3% gain in March GDP, and a resulting 0.5% growth pace for the first quarter. That
would be slightly higher than both the street’s expectations, and the flat outcome forecast
by the BoC.
In the US, a holiday-shortened week will culminate with the first revision of Q1 GDP, which
is widely expected to be downgraded well into negative territory. But barring a major surprise
there, markets will likely focus more on where the economy is headed going forward. A jump
in new home sales and stabilization in the trend of core durable goods orders (both released
earlier in the week on Tuesday) would provide some assurance on that front.
3
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
National Accounts—Q1
6
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
%
Canadian Real GDP
4
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527
2
0
GDP m/m
GDP Q1
-2
CIBC MktPrior
0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
0.5% 0.2% 2.4%
13:1 13:2 13:3 13:4 14:1 14:2 14:3 14:4 15:1F
Quarter/Quarter (saar)
Year/Year
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
The first quarter will indeed come in softer than many
would have initially expected. But, the culprit will
have been as much the poor weather and a stumbling
neighbour to the south as it was the “front-loaded”
aspects of the oil shock. So though investment should
emerge as a more significant concern in the quarters
ahead, the main disappointment in Q1 will have been
tied to anemic export performance, and more restrained
consumer spending. The economy will have still grown
by an annualized 0.5% in Q1, slightly more than the flat
outcome forecast by the Bank of Canada.
latest month, and retailers saw better results. March’s
0.3% gain should also mean that the handoff to the
second quarter will allow us to see better readings in that
quarter than we would have expected otherwise.
Forecast Implications—Though Q1 will show little
growth, the full impact from oil will take longer to
materialize. Capital spending plans have been slashed in
the oil patch, and we’re already seeing output from oil
field services take a dive. Add in more severe government
restraint with new provincial budgets that came into
effect in April, and the middle of the year may not be
much better for the Canadian economy.
Part of the slight beat relative to “atrocious” expectations
will have been due to a strong monthly performance
in March. After unseasonably cold weather restrained
two-way trade, as well as hampered activity from the
Canadian consumer, the factory sector surged in the
Market Impact—We’re slightly above consensus which
could be supportive for the C$ while weighing on fixed
income.
Other Canadian Releases:
Current Account—Q1
(Thursday, 8:30 a.m.)
Oil’s slide is going to take the current account with it in
Q1. The $5 bn deterioration in the goods trade balance
is primarily driven by Canada selling its barrels of oil at
reduced prices, and will be the catalyst in seeing the
current account come in at a deficit of $17.8 bn. That
result could have been worse, but the fall in the Canadian
dollar should help narrow the services deficit, while also
giving a slight lift to the income account.
4
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
%
US Durable Goods Orders
%
Durable Goods Orders—April
25
(Tuesday, 8:30 a.m.)
20
m/m % change (L)
15
y/y % change (R)
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
15
10
-5
Durable goods, m/m
ex transportation, m/m
Prior
4.7%
0.3%
5
-10
0
-15
-5
-20
The combination of a stronger US$ and plunge in oil
price dealt a serious blow to durable goods orders during
the latter part of 2014 and into the start of this year,
with machinery orders plunging by more than $3bn.
The slight weakening of the currency recently and some
stabilisation in rig count data suggests that the worst may
now be behind us. But neither suggest a strong rebound
yet. We expect that durable goods orders ex-transport
will edge up by 0.3%, matching March’s tally.
30
20
0
CIBC
Mkt
-1.8% -0.5%
0.3% 0.5%
35
25
10
5
40
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
-10
Apr-15F
Forecast Implications—A stabilization in ex-transport
durable goods orders implies that business investment
won’t be the drag on growth in Q2 that it was in
Q1. However, it also doesn’t suggest that business
investment will be a driver of growth during the current
quarter either. A Q2 rebound remains reliant on stronger
consumer spending, signs for which have remained
underwhelming recently.
Market Impact—We are below the consensus for the
headline, but market reaction will likely be determined
by any miss in the ex-transport and core capital goods
orders readings.
As normal, the headline reading will be influenced by
a swing in transportation (specifically aircraft) orders.
Those appear to have lost altitude in April, setting total
durable goods orders up for a 1.8% decline.
5
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
Riding Market Waves on the TSX
Concentrated Risk-Adjusted Value on TSX
It’s been a choppy year for the TSX. Enough ink’s been
spilled on oil, and a squishy global growth picture has
weighed on other resource-based stocks. But many
other non-commodity sectors have also put in less than
impressive performances. Given the risks that Canadian
oriented investors have borne this year, there’s been just
a handful of sectors that have registered decent Sharpe
ratios. The health care sector is at the top of the class,
while infotech and consumer-focused stocks have also
been standouts. With the outlook for resources still
anemic for at least the medium term, investors may be
better served in taking measured risks, and focusing on
the sectors likely to provide the greatest risk-adjusted
returns.
Sharpe Ratio for TSX Sectors (Past Year)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Average for TSX
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Dimmer US Outlook Denting TSX Rails (L),
Bringing Valuations Closer to Longer-Term Average (R)
De-railed by a Softer H1 US Outlook
Better days should be ahead, but we’ll admit that the US’s
performance in the first quarter—and likely through the
first half as a whole—has underwhelmed us. That softer
backdrop has been reflected in consensus estimates of
US growth and the tamer profile for two-way trade has
weighed on rail volumes in the first quarter. The railroad
operators have recently seen their valuations tumble
toward their longer-term averages. However, with the
potential that the American economy surprises to the
upside in the second half, and with freight volumes
already pointing to a Q2 recovery, current woes may
present an attractive entry point into stocks that had been
solid performers earlier on.
3.4
Growth, %
21
3.2
20
3.0
19
2.8
18
2.6
17
2.4
2.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
16
20
19
18
TSX Rails: Forward PEs
Avg Since 2010
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
'15 US Cons. GDP (Left)
BF 12-mo PE (Right)
10
Avg 14H2
Now
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
US Consumers: They’ll be Back
Solid Income Underpins Consumers (L);
Stragglers Among S&P 500 Consumer Stocks (R)
Aggregate Wage & Salary
Income
8 YoY, %
6
16
14
4
Overall Sector
Returns
03/15, 12
3.8
10
2
0
8
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-12
2
Jul-10
4
-6
Jan-09
6
-4
Jul-07
-2
Jan-06
6
Distribution of S&P Cons Disc.
YoY % Returns
(Number of Firms)
0
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
A more active American consumer is a key reason we
expect stronger results from the US economy. Yes,
retail sales have provided serial disappointments, with
consumers deciding to pocket the windfall provided by
cheaper gas prices. But ever-longer payrolls mean that
aggregate salary income is still up around 4% from yearago levels, even if average hourly wage growth isn’t
picking up meaningfully just yet. A long left tail to the
distribution of returns for consumer discretionary stocks
suggests that there are still a few stragglers in the sector.
Those stocks could be important beneficiaries from an
acceleration in consumer spending which clocked only
a middling 1.5% advance in the first quarter. If those
laggards were to play catch up, the overall sector could
see stronger advances ahead.
Source: Bloomberg, BEA, CIBC
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes
Oil Drilling Into Rate Cut Expectations
BoC Has Less of a Reason to Cut With Oil’s Rebound
From a peak of over $100 per barrel last year to a
trough of just above $40 earlier this year, Canada’s
most important export has been on a wild ride. More
recently, however, oil prices have started to recover,
particularly Western Canada Select. We still believe the
total impact of the oil price crash will take longer to work
its way through the economy than the BoC currently
expects—putting pressure on CAD in the next couple
of quarters. However, with oil prices now higher than
those baked into the Bank’s most recent forecast, we
think the likelihood of another cut is even more remote.
We’ve recently limited our forecasted depreciation for the
loonie and now anticipate that USDCAD will hit 1.27 in
Q3 (previously 1.29).
105
Oil Price Assumptions in
Recent MPR's
90
75
60
WTI
45
WCS
30
15
0
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Current
Transitory Nature of Slowdown Widely Discussed, But the
Weather Was Not
Transitory…Hopefully
The minutes of April’s FOMC meeting highlighted a lot
of debate over just how “transitory” the slowdown in US
growth was in the first quarter of the year. “A number”
weren’t convinced. Part of the problem is that, unlike last
year, there isn’t one single factor to lay the blame on. In
2014, poor weather was widely blamed for the slowdown
in Q1, and the economy did indeed rebound thereafter.
This time there’s a combination of factors—weather
again, port strike, etc. The widely expected downgrade
of Q1 growth shouldn’t impact markets too much, but
further evidence that the slowdown was in fact temporary
(possibly starting with stronger new home sales next
Tuesday) should be US$ supportive.
14
12
Number of Mentions in Minutes of Fed Apr
Meetings
"Transitory"
"Weather"
10
8
6
4
2
0
Apr'14
Apr'15
Source: FOMC, CIBC
Shopping Across the Pond
US Retail Sales Volumes Lag The UK (L),
Despite Greater Lift to Spending Power From Gasoline (R)
Strong retail sales figures from the UK gave a little bit of a
lift to Sterling just as its post-election rally was starting to
wane. That’s a stark contrast to recent disappointments in
US retail sales. Logically it should really be the other way
around. Due to the high tax wedge, petrol (or gasoline!)
prices haven’t come down anywhere near as much as
they have in the US. And in terms of volumes, US retail
sales aren’t as far above their pre-recession level as they
are in the UK, suggesting more pent-up demand. We
remain confident that US consumer spending will pick
up in the months ahead, driving stronger GDP growth in
the US and allowing the Fed to hike well before the BoE.
That would see cable move back down close to 1.50 over
the coming 3-6 months.
12
% Chg Retail Sales
Volumes
10
8
-5
UK
US
-10
6
-15
4
-20
-25
2
0
7
0
% Chg Gasoline Price
(Jun'14-Apr'15)
-30
Since mid2014
vs 2007
-35
UK
US
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
May/June 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
18
WEDNESDAY
19
Bank of Canada
Gov. Poloz speaks in
Charlottetown @ 11:30 AM
ET, and press conference at
1:00 PM ET
VICTORIA DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
25
THURSDAY
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
26
2
27
9
4
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
22
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
JAN -1.41.4
FEB 1.52.4
MAR 0.73.1
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
FEB
0.91.0
MAR
0.71.2
APR
-0.10.8
29
NATIONAL ACCTS
8:30 AM
REAL
PRICE
GDPDEFLATOR
%ch AR
%ch AR
14:Q33.2 1.4
14:Q42.4 -2.4
15:Q1
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
JAN-0.2-0.3
FEB 0.0-0.4
MAR
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
5
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
MAR
0.20.8 6.81.9
APR
-0.10.8 6.82.4
MAY
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM
11
12
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
8:30 AM
LEVEL (%)
TOTALMANUF.
14:Q383.2 83.4
14:Q483.6 83.7
15:Q1
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
FEB
2.2-5.0
MAR 6.622.1
APR
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
FEB -2.2-2.4
MAR 2.90.3
APR
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
FEB
1.8-1.5
MAR 0.3-1.8
APR
QUARTERLY
FINANCIAL STATISTICS
8:30 AM
10
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
MAR190 52
APR182 58
MAY
15
28
BALANCE OF
INT’L PAYMENTS
8:30 AM
CURR. ACCT. BAL.
$BN(QR) $BN(AR)
14:Q3
-9.6 -38.4
14:Q4-13.9 -55.7
15:Q1
3
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
MAR 2.91377.7
APR 0.16277.8
MAY
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
FEB-2,215 -81
MAR -3,019-4,350
APR
8
21
20
Bank of Canada
Interest Rate Announcement
1
FRIDAY
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
16
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.4
MAR21.0 -5.3
6.8 22.5
APR
17
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
18
19
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
FEB 1.52.4
MAR 0.73.1
APR
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
MAR
0.71.2
APR
-0.10.8
MAY
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
May/June 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
18
WEDNESDAY
19
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
FEB 0.900-16.7
MAR0.944 4.9
APR 1.13520.2
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
21
20
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
FOMC Minutes
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
25
MEMORIAL DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
26
28
27
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
FEB -1.40.5
MAR 4.00.7
APR
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
MAR
APR
MAY
51.539.0
51.540.5
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
2
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
FEB -0.1-4.6
MAR 2.1-4.0
APR
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
MAR
17.0543.8
APR
16.4613.1
MAY
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
FEB -55.7 19.8-35.9
MAR -70.6 19.2-51.4
APR
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
Beige Book
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
11
12
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.8
APR-0.4 -1.3
MAY
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
10:00 AM
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
16
17
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
MAR0.944 4.9
APR 1.13520.2
MAY
18
CPI
M(SA)
Y
(NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.1
APR
MAY
CURRENT ACCOUNT BAL.
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
19
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
FOMC Rate Decision
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
5
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
MAR855.51.9
APR
2235.41.9
MAY
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 1.11.7
APR 0.00.9
MAY
10
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
MAR 78.6-0.3 2.3
APR 78.2-0.3 1.9
MAY
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
15
4
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
Y/Y
14:Q4 (R)
-2.1
-0.1
15:Q1 (P)
-1.9
0.6
15:Q1 (R)
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
MICHIGAN
SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
9
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
3
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
8
29
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(A)0.2 -0.1
15:Q1(P)
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
1
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
on economic outlook at
1:00 PM ET in Rhode Island
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
PERS. INC & OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
FEB0.40.25.7
MAR
0.00.45.3
APR
22
CPI
8:30 AM M(SA)
Y
(NSA)
FEB 0.20.0
MAR 0.2-0.1
APR
0.1-0.2
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
9
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia
Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, “CIBC”) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional
Investors (“MII”) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. U.S. MIIs receiving this report from CIBC World Markets Inc.
(the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer).
This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World Markets Inc. in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities
discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in
the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views expressed in this document are meant
for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited.
This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC. Before making an investment decision on the basis of any information contained
in this report, the recipient should consider whether such information is appropriate given the recipient’s particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC suggests that, prior to acting on
any information contained herein, you contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report
to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice; as with any transaction having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own tax advisors. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future results.
The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon
as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such
address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient’s convenience and information, and the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to
access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk.
© 2015 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. is prohibited by law and may result
in prosecution.
10

THE WEEK AHEAD - CIBC World Markets

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