Grocery Universe 2012

Transcription

GROCERY UNIVERSE
2014
RESULTS OF THE 52ND INVENTORY OF RETAIL
GROCERY IN BELGIUM, DRAWN UP BY NIELSEN.
Any reproduction, representation or use of one or various elements
of this report must show the full mention: Source: Nielsen
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.
Nielsen in brief
2.
Belgian Economy & Retail in 2013
3.
The Nielsen Grocery Universe
3.1 Turnover and inflation
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.
Number of stores
Market share by Shop Type
Sales surface
Discounters in Belgium
Regional characteristics
Private labels
Retailing in Europe
4.1 International Shop Types
4.2 Discounters in Europe
5.
The Nielsen Services
Nielsen Grocery Universe 2014 │ Copyright ©2014 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
2
1. NIELSEN IN BRIEF
THE NIELSEN COMPANY
For 91 years Nielsen services have been making the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer
Goods) market visible and comprehensible for manufacturers and retailers. Nielsen is
the world’s leading provider of information and market analysis in the consumer and
service sectors thanks to the quality of its data, the accessibility of its analyses, the
expertise it has built up over more than 91 years of practical experience and the rapidity
with which it communicates its findings.
•
Established in the United States in 1923 by Arthur C. Nielsen
•
Operates in over a hundred countries
•
Active in Belgium since 1954
‒
Over 200 regular clients
‒
Studies more than 400 product categories
This overview represents the results of the 52nd inventory of the world of retail grocery
sector, drawn up every year by Nielsen.
4
2. THE ECONOMY &
RETAIL IN 2013
Bali Package
↘ Trade barriers
Nuclear test in North Korea
Nuclear deal in Iran
NSA scandal over
PRISM
Crisis in Cyprus
(bailout by UE)
Civil war in Syria
Coup d’état in Egypt, Mali,
Central Africa
Building collapse in Bangladesh
 Work conditions?
Inflation food prices
Elections in Italy,
China
Typhoon in Philippines, Vietnam
Floods in US, China, India
 Impacts of climate change
6
BELGIUM: THE NIELSEN BAROMETER EVOLUTION
The last two years FMCG volumes remained flat in Belgium. Turnover is
growing by +2.2% thanks to the price inflation.
FMCG:
Food & Non Food
Sales Value
Sales Volume
Price of Package Sold
% 2013 vs 2012
+2.2%
+0.0%
+2.2%
% 2012 vs 2011
+2.2%
+0.1%
+2.1%
% 2011 vs 2010
+3.2%
+0.8%
+2.4%
% 2010 vs 2009
+1.1%
+0.9%
+0.3%
% 2009 vs 2008
+2.0%
-0.3%
+2.2%
(*) The Nielsen Barometer shows the trend as a percentage of sales of a representative group
of FMCG products in the retail sector in Belgium
7
BELGIUM: FMCG TRENDS PER YEAR AND PER QUARTER
In the last quarter of 2013, a positive volume trend is noted (which persists
beginning of 2014).
6%
5%
4%
3%
3.2%
0.8%
2%
1%
2.4%
2.8%
2.2%
0.1%
2.2%
2.1%
2.2%
4.1%
1.6%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0%
1.5%
1.1%
2.9%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
0.1%
1.5%
0.3%
1.0%
1.8%
2.9%
0.2%
2.6%
3.0%
1.1%
1.9%
-1.3%
-1%
-2.7%
-2%
2011
2012
2013
Q1'12
Average price change
Q2'12
Q3'12
Volume change
Q4'12
Q1'13
Q2'13
Q3'13
Q4'13
Nominal growth
Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter
8
3. NIELSEN GROCERY
UNIVERSE 2014
DEFINITION OF THE GROCERY UNIVERSE
The grocery sector includes the following:
1.
Retail stores in Belgium selling at least four of the following food categories:
•
•
•
•
•
•
2.
Edible fats
Canned goods
Bottled drinks
Drinks in the form of solid substances (e.g. coffee and tea)
Pasta
Confectionery
‘Food’ sales also have to represent at least 40% of total turnover
Are excluded:
1.
Stores that generate more than 50% of their turnover through the sale of meat products or fish and shellfish.
2.
Stores specialising in diet foods.
3.
Stores that are part of petrol stations (e.g. Yelloh, Shop ‘n Go, etc…)
Turnover
We take into account the total turnover generated during the course of the past year.
For stores that only opened during the course of the year, sales are extrapolated for a full year. For stores that closed
during the course of the year, Nielsen assumes that no sales at all were made in that year.
For hypermarkets, only the turnover for the food, paper products, care products and cleaning products departments is
taken into account.
10
DEVELOPMENTS IN 2013
• Domestic consumption increased slightly (+ 0.8%) while the importance of the Grocery Universe
increased by+0.2 pts. Households have spent relatively more in the Grocery Universe compared to
their total expenditure.
• The turnover of the grocery universe rose to EUR 24.5 billion in 2013. This is an increase of +2.7%
compared with the previous year. Inflation grew in 2013 with 1.1%, less than in 2012. This means
that the turnover in constant has a positive growth of 1.6%. The Nielsen Growth Reporter also
showed a stabilization of the volumes in Belgium in 2013.
• There were 7 289 stores in the universe in 2013. This is 96 stores less than in 2012.
Between 2005 and 2013, the number of points of sale fell on average by 130 stores per year.
Between 1995 and 2013, on the other hand, an average of 315 stores closed per year.
• The share of F1 declined by -0.1 points to 51.5% while opening 5 extra stores in 2013 bringing their
total to 597 stores.
• F2 and Hard Discounters, on the other hand, gained market shares. F2 has a MS of 28% which
represents an increase of +0.2 pts versus 2012. Hard Discount grew by +0.2 pts to 15.5% in
Belgium. Noteworthy is that F2 (1312 stores) grew in share with 35 extra stores while Hard
Discount (739 stores) increased their number of stores by 4 stores.
• The market share of F3 keeps on declining. In 2013 they lost -0.3 points to 5%. The number of
stores also decreased to 4 641 stores (-140 stores vs 2012).
11
3.1 TURNOVER AND INFLATION
TURNOVER GROCERY UNIVERSE IN BILLIONS OF EURO
Turnover of the Grocery Universe increased by +2.7% to 24.5 billion euro in
2013. When eliminating the effect of the inflation, evolution turnover at
constant price remains positive for the first time in four year.
7.5
10.4
9.5 10 10.1
8.9
8.3
10.8 11.3
14.8
14 14.3
13.5
13 13.1
12 12.5
16
15.3 15.6
16.7
17.4
18.2
18.9 19.5
20.3 20.9
21.7
22.4
23.9
22.8 23.2
24.5
10.1 10 10.310.3 10.210.2 10.4
9.4 9.7 9.8 9.8 10
9.2
9.1
9
9
8.8
8.7
8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.6
7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 8 8.1
'81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 13
Current Prices
Constant Prices (1981 = 100)
Current Prices: Prices including inflation
Constant Prices: Prices excluding inflation
13
INFLATION PER YEAR
Inflation rate declined again in 2013 to 1.1%.
8.2%
7.7%
6.3%
4.5%
4.9%
3.5%
3.2%
3.1%
2.7%
2.4%
2.1%
2.0%
1.6%
1.5%
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
2.6%
2.8%
2.5%
3.5%
2.9%
2.2%
2.1%
1.6%
1.1%
1.6%
1.8% 1.8%
1.1%
0.0%
'82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 13
Source: Federal Public Service for the Economy, SME’s, Self-employed and Energy
14
INFLATION PER TYPE OF PRODUCT/SERVICE
Highest inflation rate is reported in Food in the first half of 2013.
Non Food inflation, on the other hand, is decreasing and negative throughout
2013.
4.9
5.1
4.6
4.5
4
4.7
4.4
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3 3.2 3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1 3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8 2.8 2.8
2.7
2.7 2.7 2.8
2.7
2.5 2.6
2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
2.2 2.3
2.2
2
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4 1.3
2.2
2 1.1
1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4
0.2 1.1 1.3
1.1
1.1
-0.3
-0.3 -0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.8
-0.9
-1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.5
3.8
3.4
3
2.3
2.2
2
1
0.6
-0.2
-1.4
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14
Food
Non Food
Services
Rent
Source: Federal Public Service for the Economy, SME’s, Self-employed and Energy
15
EVOLUTION TURNOVER GROCERY UNIVERSE VERSUS YEAR BEFORE
Even without the effect of the inflation turnover at constant prices is
increasing by 1.6%.
Current Prices
Fixed Prices
2.8
1.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.2
2.1 2.3
4.9
4.8
2.8
2.1
1.6
4.0
3.3 3.4
2.3
2.0
2.4
3.8
3.23.2
3.0
2.2
1.3
1.0
0.8
3.3
2.7
1.8
2.7
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-1.4
-1.5
'93
2.1
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
Fixed Prices: Prices excluding inflation
16
FOOD UNIVERSE MARKET SHARES IN TOTAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
For the second year the grocery universe is becoming more important in our
total expenditure.
Source: National Bank of Belgium - Nielsen Food Universe
17
3.2 NUMBER OF STORES
DEFINITION NIELSEN SHOP TYPES
F1 : LARGE DISTRIBUTION (LIMITED PANEL)
•
GROUP CARREFOUR BELGIUM:
•
•
•
GROUP COLRUYT:
GROUP DELHAIZE:
GROUP LOUIS DELHAIZE:
Carrefour Hypermarkets, Carrefour Market Integrated ,
Carrefour Market Groupe Mestdagh
Colruyt
Supermarkets Delhaize
Cora, Match
F2 : AVERAGED SIZE DISTRIBUTION
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ALVO
GROUP CARREFOUR BELGIUM:
GROUP COLRUYT:
GROUP DELHAIZE:
GROUP INTERMARCHÉ:
GROUP LOUIS DELHAIZE:
Other Supermarkets over 400 m²
Carrefour Market Franchised
Okay, Spar Retail (supermarkets Spar)
AD Delhaize, Superettes, Proxy Delhaize, Delhaize City, Red Market
Intermarché, Ecomarché
Profi, Smatch
F3 : SMALL DISTRIBUTION
All self service shops that have a commercial surface under 400m² that aren’t mentioned above (e.g. Supra et Spar
(Lambrechts), Prima (Huyghebaert), Carrefour Express, Louis Delhaize (Group Louis Delhaize)), and all shops with a
« traditional service » (e.g. night-shops »).
HARD DISCOUNTERS Aldi & Lidl
19
NUMBER OF STORES IN THE GROCERY UNIVERSE
There are 7 289 grocery store in Belgium. The number is (steadily) declining
in the last decades due to a more intense and centralized organisation of the
universe.
Evolution vs previous year (%):
-4%
-2%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-1%
-3%
-1%
20
NUMBER OF F1 STORES: LARGE SCALE DISTRIBUTION
The large scaled distribution consists of 597 stores and is opening more
stores at a steady pace the last years (+5 stores in 2013).
534
519 517 515 523
511
507
497
481 487
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
555
'04
571 583
'05
'06
598
597
582 592 586 590 592
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
21
NUMBER OF F2 STORES: MEDIUM-SIZED DISTRIBUTION
After the closing of less profitable shops from 1995 to 2003 the number of F2
stores, mostly franchised, is increasing again in the last years bringing the
total to 1 312 stores in 2013 (+35).
1565 1570 1539
1500
1430
1385
1305
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
1273 1249
'01
'02
1169 1166 1174 1196 1179
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
1239 1250
1206 1228
'08
'09
'10
'11
1277
'12
1312
'13
22
NUMBER OF HARD DISCOUNT STORES
Hard Discounters opened stores at a rapid pace until the beginning of years
2000. Today Hard Discounters have 739 stores in Belgium but growth rate is
slowing down. This year 4 extra shops were added to their total.
693
711 719
734 735 741 735 739
662
588
510
378
310
401
429
607
536
450
333
278
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
23
NUMBER OF F3 STORES
The small distribution is primarily responsible for the declining number of
grocery stores in Belgium. F3 stores are closing less profitable stores year
after year bringing their total to 4 641 stores in 2013. Reasons for the decline
in F3 are clear: increasing competition from organized supermarkets,
inadequate sales and profit, leaving no funds to invest.
1064210585
10325
9859
9178
8343
7619
6894
6462 6338
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
6206
'04
5919
'05
5667 5529
'06
'07
5414 5266
'08
'09
5100 4988
'10
'11
4781 4641
'12
'13
24
NUMBER OF F3 STORES: SUPERETTES AND TRADITIONAL STORES
In 2013 more superettes had to close their doors than traditional stores:
-109 superettes versus -31 traditional stores. Reasons for the decline in F3
are clear: increasing competition from organized supermarkets, inadequate
sales and profit, leaving no funds to invest.
25
3.3 MARKET SHARE BY SHOP TYPE
MARKET SHARES BY SHOP TYPE
With only 597 stores (8% of the number of stores in the Grocery Universe) F1
attains a market share of 51.5%. Importance is, however, declining in favor of
Hard Discount (15.5%) and F2 (28.0%).
Share of the small distribution is declining year after year.
45.9
46.8
49.1
52.2 52.0 52.8 53.3 54.0 53.5 53.4 53.3 52.2 52.3 51.8 51.9 51.6 51.5
29.7
31.4
29.7
27.9 27.6 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 27.5 27.4 27.8
7.6
9.8
11.2 12.4 12.4 12.8 12.9 14.1 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.1 14.8
15
15.3 15.5
14.2
11.4
8.7
7.9
7.3
7.0
6.6
6.3
5.9
6.1
6.2
6
5.9
5.7
5.3
5
'90
'95
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
5.5
18.9
'85
F3
HD
F2
28
F1
27
F1: MARKET SHARES PER 100 STORES
The market share per 100 F1 stores declined slightly in the last two years.
The five extra stores in 2013 did not have a positive influence on the market
share.
10.1 10.1
'94
'95
10
'96
9.9
10
'97
'98
9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1
10
'99
'03
'00
'01
'02
9.7
9.4
9.2
8.9
9
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.6
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
The market share per store indicates the importance of one average store. So the effect of openings is neutralised and it is possible
to examine whether a given store remains equally important over time.
28
F2: MARKET SHARES PER 100 STORES
In F2, the importance of one average store is also declining after a status quo
in the last seven years.
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
The market share per store indicates the importance of one average store. So the effect of openings is neutralised and it is possible to examine
whether a given store remains equally important over time.
29
MARKET SHARES PER 100 HARD DISCOUNTERS
Unlike F1 & F2, Hard Discount is able to keep the importance of one average
store stable.
3.3
'94
3.2
'95
3.1
'96
2.8
'97
2.7
'98
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
30
MARKET SHARES PER 100 F3 STORES
The market share per 100 F3 stores remains low but stable over time.
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
31
TURNOVER PER STORE IN 1000 EUR
An average F1 store makes four times the turnover reached in F2 and Hard Discount. An average
F3 store only had a turnover of 266 000 EUR. It is not surprising that some stores have to close
as a number of points of sale are loss-making. Only those stores that offer something specific
(Sunday openings, etc.) are able to create added value and hence remain competitive.
Average
Store
F1
F2
HD
F3
2003
2 114
18 209
4 195
3 966
202
2004
2 210
18 342
4 290
4 006
200
2005
2 340
18 249
4 340
4 148
207
2006
2 489
18 572
4 519
4 098
210
2007
2 604
18 638
4 594
4 299
229
2008
2 736
19 440
4 744
4 576
249
2009
2 860
19 775
4 845
4 585
255
2010
2 971
20 122
5 045
4 595
263
2011
3 069
20 442
5 086
4 698
267
2012
3 232
20 820
5 194
4 973
263
2013
3 365
21 139
5 242
5 139
266
32
3.4 SALES SURFACE
SALES SURFACE IN 2013
The total sales surface in the grocery universe stands at 3.55 million m². The
F1 and F2 store types have the largest total sales surface. Per store, the sales
surface is however far greater at F1 than at F2.
Sales surface area
(m²)
Number of stores
Average sales surface
(m²) per store
F1 Stores
1 207 767
597
2 023
F2 Stores
1 133 699
1 312
864
Hard Discount
443 400
739
600
F3 Stores
765 483
4 641
165
Total
3 550 349
7 289
34
SALES SURFACE IN 2013
The share of the total sales surface occupied by F1 is significantly smaller than the
share of the total turnover in the grocery universe. F2 has a comparable share of the
total sales surface and the total turnover. Hard Discount weighs somewhat heavier in
the total turnover than in the sales surface. F3, on the other hand, have a far greater
share in selling surface than in turnover.
Turnover per m² is the highest in F1. Hard Discount also scores very well in turnover
per m².
Share of sales surface
area (%)
Share of total
turnover (%)
Turnover per m²
(in euro)
F1 Stores
34%
52%
10 449
F2 Stores
32%
28%
6 066
Hard Discount
12%
16%
8 565
F3
22%
5%
1 610
35
3.5 DISCOUNTERS IN BELGIUM
TYPES OF DISCOUNTERS IN BELGIUM
SOFT DISCOUNTERS
HARD DISCOUNTERS
Chains:
• Colruyt
• Profi/Smatch
• Intermarché
• Central Cash (*)
Chains:
• Aldi
• Lidl
• Dial (*)
• Eda (*)
Features:
– Low prices
– Focus on own brands, generic
products and exclusive and national
brands
– Virtually all product groups on sale
Features:
– Low prices
– Focus on own brands and exclusive
brands
– Limited range
(*) Dial, Eda and Central Cash have been closed since 1998, 2000 and 2002
37
DISCOUNT STORES
The number of discount stores increased again in 2013 to 1 132 shops.
Market share also grew to 42.6% (+0.9pt vs 2012!).
Number of Discount Stores
805
'98
843
'99
815
'00
981
874
891
881
'01
'02
'03
1020
1117 1114 1132
1086 1101
1064
1051
911
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
Market Share Discount Stores
41.0% 41.7% 42.6%
38.4% 39.3% 40.2%
36.6%
34.4% 35.2%
30.5% 31.2% 32.4%
29.5%
26.5% 27.3% 27.8%
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
38
DISCOUNT STORES PER TYPE
Both Hard & Soft Discounter opened stores and gained market share in 2013.
Number of Stores per type of Discounter
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Soft
304
319
327
340
345
352
366
376
379
393
Hard
607
662
693
711
719
734
735
741
735
739
Total
911
981
1 020
1 051
1 064
1 086
1 101
1 117
1 114
1132
Market Share (%) per type of Discounter
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Soft
19.5
20.3
21.2
22.0
23.2
24.2
25.4
26.0
26.4
27.1
Hard
12.9
14.1
14.0
14.6
15.2
15.1
14.8
15.0
15.3
15.5
Total
32.4
34.4
35.2
36.6
38.4
39.3
40.2
41.0
41.7
42.6
39
3.6 REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
NIELSEN AREA’S
II
I
I
North West:
Provinces of East & West Flanders
II
North East:
Provinces of Antwerp, Limburg & Flemish Brabant
III
Brussels Conurbation:
Anderlecht
Brussel
Drogenbos
Elsene
Etterbeek
Evere
Ganshoren
Grimbergen
Haren
Jette
Koekelberg
III
IV
V
Kraainem
Laken
Linkebeek
Machelen
Neder Over Heembeek
Oudergem
Schaarbeek
St-Agatha-Berchem
St-Genesius-Rode
St-Gillis
St-Jans-Molenbeek
St-Joost-ten-Node
St-Lambrechts-Woluwe
St-Pieters-Woluwe
Tervuren
Ukkel
Vilvoorde
Vorst
Watermaal-Bosvoorde
Wemmel
Wezembeek-Oppem
Zaventem
IV
South West:
Provinces of Hainaut & Walloon-Brabant
V
South East:
Provinces of Namur, Liège & Luxembourg
41
EVOLUTION TURNOVER FOOD UNIVERSE PER AREA IN 2013 VS 2012
Turnover is growing in all regions. Although growth in the South East is
slightly smaller.
area 1
2.9%
area 2
area 3
2.9%
1.8%
Current prices
2.8%
1.8%
area 4
2.7%
1.7%
area 5
2.3%
1.6%
1.2%
Fixed prices
Fixed Prices: Prices excluding inflation
42
EVOLUTION IN TURNOVER, NUMBER OF STORES AND POPULATION IN 2013
In the North (Area 1 and 2) the share in terms of turnover is lower than the share in
terms of population. This is in contrast to the South (Area 4 and 5) where the share of
turnover is higher than the share of the population.
In the South, consumers shop mainly in stores included in the grocery universe. In the
North, there are far more independent and specialist businesses (fishmongers,
bakeries, etc.) and consumers shop more often in stores outside the Nielsen grocery
universe.
Turnover
(mio €)
%
Number of
stores
%
Population
(in 000)
%
Total Belgium
24 527
100.0%
7 289
100.0%
11 100
100.0%
Area 1
5 771
23.5%
2 061
28.3%
2 643
23.8%
Area 2
7 291
29.7%
2 200
30.2%
3 537
31.9%
Area 3
2 783
11.3%
754
10.3%
1 349
12.1%
Area 4
4 322
17.6%
1 167
16.0%
1 721
15.5%
Area 5
4 360
17.8%
1 107
15.2%
1 850
16.7%
43
NUMBER OF STORES AND EVOLUTION PER AREA
There are strikingly more stores in the North than in the South: there are far
more F2 & F3 stores in Area 1 and Area 2. However, large distribution (F1) is
relatively more represented in Area 4 and Area 5.
Total Belgium
Area 1
Area 2
Area 3
Area 4
Area 5
7 289
2 061
2 200
754
1 167
1 107
-96
-25
-16
4
-36
-23
597
102
149
77
151
118
5
1
2
1
1
0
1 312
414
414
77
156
251
35
15
20
-1
3
-2
739
189
249
45
119
137
4
-2
5
0
1
0
4 641
1 356
1 388
555
741
601
-140
-39
-43
4
-41
-21
Total universe
F1
F2
HD
F3
44
NORTH: MARKET SHARES BY SHOP TYPE
In the North, in addition to F1 (45.2%), F2 (32.3%) is also very important. F2
& Hard Discount are gaining share at the expense of F3. More over, Hard
Discount is more important in the North than in the South.
North
33.6 33.8 34.8 36.4 36.7 37.5 39.1
40
41
42 42.5 43.4 44 44.9 45.5 45.8 45.5 45.8 46.2 45.7 46 45.4 45.5 45.2 45.2
37.4 39.6 39 37.8 37
36.3 34.7 33.8 33.5 33.1
32.9 32.7 32.1 31.9 30.9 30.9 30.7 31.2 30.1 30.6 30.8 31.7 31.5 31.9 32.3
10.1 9.7 9.8
10.6 11.3 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.7
13.6 14.8 14.7 15.2 15.4 16.6 16.3 16.9 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.4
19 16.8 16.3 15.4 15 14.5 13.7 12.9
12.2 11.6 10.9 10.3 9.3 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.2 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.2
5.6 5.2
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
F3
Hard Discounters
F2
F1
45
BRUSSELS: MARKET SHARES BY SHOP TYPE
Brussels is clearly dominated by F1 chains (69.0%) although the share is
declining in the last two years. Hard Discount (7.3%) has the smallest share in
Brussels but is gaining rapidly in 2013.
Brussels
68.6 69.5 70.9 70.8 71.5 71.7 72.2 73.2 73.4
69.0
75.1 75.0 75.2 74.7 74.7 73.8 73.5 72.6 72.1 71.5 71.2 70.8 70.0 70.3 69.7
12.5 12.1 11.5 11.4 12.3
12.4 11.9 11.6 11.1 9.7 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.0 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.5 15.3 15.2
3.6 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.6
3.6 4.0 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 6.1
6.7 7.0 7.4 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.0 7.1 6.9 7.3
15.4 14.8 14.1 13.7 12.5 12.3 11.9 11.3 10.5 10.1 9.8
8.9 8.3 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.5
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
F3
Hard Discounters
F2
F1
46
SOUTH: MARKET SHARES BY SHOP TYPE
In the South, the large scaled distribution (55.3%) is more important than in
the North. However, F1 is loosing share in Belgium due to the negative
performance in the South. Hard Discount (15.3%) and F2 (25.8%) are gaining
share.
South
55.7 55.9 55.8 55.9 55.5 55.1 54.6 54.8 55.3 55.5 56.2 56.5 55.6 56.4 57.1 58.8 58.3 58.3 57.6 55.4 55.6 55.3 55.4 55.5 55.3
27.2 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.1 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.2 24.3 24.7 24.3 24.7 24.8 25.6 25.4 25.6 25.8
5.8 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.7 11.3 11.1
11.4 11.2 12.6 12.7 13.6 15.1 15.0 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.3
11.3 10.3 9.6 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.1
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.7
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
F3
Hard Discounters
F2
F1
47
AVERAGE TURNOVER PER STORE (IN 1000 EUR)
In Brussels, F1 and F3 record the highest turnover per store. The results of F3
can be explained by the F3 convenience superettes which are highly
successful among other stores because of the early and late opening hours,
Sunday openings and ready meals.
In the South, F2 has a higher turnover per store compared to the North.
F1
HD
F2
F3
North
23 503
5 185
5 088
247
Brussels
24 949
4 490
5 500
427
South
17 842
5 175
5 505
236
48
3.7 PRIVATE LABELS
SHARE OF PRIVATE LABEL IN BELGIUM
Private labels have seen their value share triple since 1985. Especially in the last three
years PL is gaining share again. In 2013, 34% of the turnover in FMCG was realized by
private label.
24.3
13.3
14.3 14.7
15.8 16.2
16.8
17.8
19.2
20.3
25.5
26.8
27.9 27.7 28.2
29.2 29.1 29.2
31.2 31.2
29.7 30.4 29.8 30.1
31.7
33.0 33.7
34.4
21.9
'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Definition private labels = Generic brands, exclusive brands (sold at Aldi and Lidl),
brands that bear the name of the store or the retailer
50
SHARE OF PRIVATE LABEL PER PRODUCT CATEGORY
Two-thirds of the turnover for fresh products comes from private labels. In bakery &
toast and frozen products, private labels also have a high share. In alcoholic beverages
and confectionery, on the other hand, the share of private label is relatively low.
51
DEFINITIONS PRODUCT CATEGORIES
Frozen
Frozen goods
(ice cream, frozen fish,
meals, vegetables, …)
Grocery
Sugar, pasta, rize,
canned food, jam,
babyfood, cereals, …
Housekeeping
Household products and
cleaning products
Fresh Products
Fresh products (soup,
fruit juices, prepacked
fine meat (charcuterie),
fresh meals, ready to
use salads, …)
Alcoholic Beverages
Wine, spirits, beers,
premix, port, …
Health & Beauty
Hair care, body care,
shaving, dental care,
face care, make-up, …
Dairy
Dairy products (butter,
margarine, cheese, milk,
yoghurt, desserts, …)
Non Alcoholic
Beverages
Waters, juices,
lemonades, ice tea,
energy drinks, …
Pet Food
Dog and Cat food
Bakery & Toast
Prepacked bakery,
bread & toast
Hot Beverages
Coffee, tea, hot
chocolate, …
Confectionery
Chocolates and Sweets
Salted Snacks
Salted Snacks ( biscuits,
crisps)
Sweet Snacks
Sweet biscuits,
waffles, cakes,
industrial pastry, ,…
52
4. RETAILING IN EUROPE
4.1 INTERNATIONAL SHOP TYPES
DEFINITIONS
COUNTRIES
AUS = Austria
FRA = France
NOR = Norway
SWI= Switzerland
BEL = Belgium
GER = Germany
POL = Poland
UK = Great Britain
DEN = Denmark
GRE = Greece
POR = Portugal
CZE = Czech Republic
EIR = Ireland
ITA = Italy
SPA = Spain
HUN = Hungary
FIN = Finland
NED = Netherlands
SWE = Sweden
SLK = Slovakia
SHOP TYPES
• Hypermarkets
selling surface over 2500m²
• Large Supermarkets
selling surface 1000m² - 2500m²
• Small Supermarkets
selling surface 400m² - 1000m²
• Superettes & Traditional
selling surface under 400m²
55
EUROPE: FMCG DEVELOPMENT INDEX (BASE 100 = 2006)
In 2013 the value index keeps on increasing as in the previous years. At the
same time the volume index remained stable in Europe.
56
FMCG TRENDS PER YEAR AND PER QUARTER IN EUROPE
In Europe no volume growth is noted in the last two years.
6%
5%
4%
5.2%
4.3%
0.9%
0.7%
3.6%
0.0%
3%
2%
3.4%
3.6%
1%
0%
4.7%
0.2%
3.4%
3.1%
2.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.2%
2.6%
-0.1%
3.5%
2.8%
3.0%
3.3%
2012
2013
-0.2%
-0.8% -0.4%
Q4'11
Average price change
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Volume change
Q4'12
0.2%
1.2%
2.7%
3.1%
2.8%
Q1'13
Q2'13
1.7%
2.3%
-0.6%
-1.5%
-1%
2011
3.0%
0.2%
Q3'13
Q4'13
Nominal growth
57
FMCG TRENDS PER COUNTRY IN 2013 VS 2012
Only Turkey, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland noted a positive volume
evolution in 2013.
11.0%
4%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
3.0% 3.0%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
3%
3%
4%
0.0%
1%
1.0%
0% -1.0% -1.0%
0% -1.0%
0%
-1%
-1% 0.0%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-4%
0% 1.0%
1.0% 1.0%
3%
2%
0%
1%
1%
1%
3%
-2%
-3%
3%
-1%
0%
2%
1%
3%
3%
-1%
-1%
3%
0%
0%
4%
4%
7%
2%
0%
-2.0%
Unit value
Volume growth
Nominal Value Growth
58
MARKET SHARES BY SHOP TYPE IN EUROPE
Retail landscape in Europe remains stable over the last years. Since 1980 the smallest
Superettes and Traditional stores are declining especially in favour of the Hypermarkets
and Large Supermarkets. The Small Supermarkets have managed to maintain their
market share over time. The Hard Discounters (which belong to this segment) have
accounted for this maintaining of the market share.
59
MARKET SHARES BY SHOP TYPES PER COUNTRY IN 2012
France and the UK have been dominated by hypermarkets for years. Belgium and the
Netherlands have the highest share in Large Supermarkets.
60
NUMBER OF STORES PER MILLION HABITANTS IN 2012
Norway, Austria, Denmark and Germany have the highest number of stores per million habitants
of which a very large number of small supermarkets. Belgium holds the sixth place in total
number of stores per habitant
61
TOP GLOBAL FOOD RETAILERS 2012 (1)
Wal-Mart remains the world’s biggest grocery retailer. Tesco moved up from third to
second place but major growth for Costco from fifth to third place. Carrefour,
however, dropped from second place to fourth place.
Belgian retailer Delhaize Group remains in the top 25.
Retailer
Country of
Origin
Retail
Turnover in US
$ billion (2011)
Number of
countries of
operation
1
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
U.S.
469.2
28
2
Tesco plc
U.K
101.3
13
3
Costco Wholesale Crop.
U.S.
99.1
9
4
Carrefour S.A.
France
98.8
31
5
The Kroger Co.
U.S.
96.8
1
6
Schwarz Unternehmens Truehand KG
Germany
87.2
26
7
Metro AG
Germany
85.8
32
8
Aldi Einkauf GmbH & Co. oHG
Germany
73.0
17
9
Target Corp.
U.S.
72.0
1
10
Aeon CO., Ltd.
Japan
63.1
10
The table constitutes a league table of the top international grocery retailers, based on the turnover they achieved in 2012.
Source: Deloitte “2014 Global Powers of Retailing”
62
TOP GLOBAL FOOD RETAILERS 2012 (2)
Retailer
Country of
Origin
Retail
Turnover in US
$ billion (2011)
Number of
countries of
operation
France
59.0
13
Australia
58.6
2
11
Groupe Auchan SA
12
Woolworths Limited
13
Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd.
Japan
58.3
18
14
Edeka Zentrale AG & Co. KG
Germany
55.9
1
15
Wesfarmers Limited
Australia
54.2
2
16
Casino Guichard-Perrachon S.A.
France
53.4
26
17
Rewe Combine
Germany
49.0
11
18
Centres Distributeurs E. Leclerc
France
44.8
7
19
Safeway Inc.
U.S.
43.3
3
20
Koninklijk Ahold NV
Netherlands
42.2
12
21
J Sainsbury plc
U.K.
36.8
1
22
ITM Développement International
France
35.8
8
23
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
Canada
32.9
19
24
Loblaw companies Limited
Canada
31.0
2
25
Delhaize Group SA
Belgium
29.2
11
The table constitutes a league table of the top international grocery retailers, based on the turnover they achieved in 2012.
Source: Deloitte “201’ Global Powers of Retailing”
63
4.2 DISCOUNTERS IN EUROPE
MARKET SHARE DISCOUNTERS IN EUROPE
The market share of discount stores in Europe reached 20% in 2012. In
comparison to this, Discount stores are very strong in Belgium where they
account for 43% of the turnover.
19.4%19.2%18.7%19.4%20.0%
19.1%
18.5%
18.2%18.9%
18.0%
17.4%
16.2%16.0%15.8%
16.1%
15.9%
14.9%15.4%
13.8%
12.4%
11.4%
10.1%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Discounters
65
DISCOUNT SHARE BY COUNTRY
15.7%
56.9%
16.4%
Growing
Stable
Decline
7.7%
36.6%
14.0%
22.7%
19.9%
41.3%
10.9%
41.1%
18.9%
25.7%
17.7%
27.3%
18.4%
11.1%
16.4%
11.4%
15.6%
16.0%
66
5. THE NIELSEN SERVICES
RETAIL MEASUREMENT SERVICES
NIELSEN RETAIL INDEX
This service is available for the Food (ScanTrack) and Tobacco sectors. The Nielsen Retail Index offers to clients
a continuous monitoring of the distribution of products to consumers. These sales results are combined with
an analysis of the factors which explain their situation, as well as that of their competitors (price, distribution,
promotional support, etc.).
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ScanTrack Express is a “mini” version of the normal ScanTrack, developed to offer a quick, flexible and ad-hoc
supplement for the regular data. Within this weekly delivered database, clients will be able to temporarily
broaden the scope of their current tracking with extra products, extra markets and/or extra facts in order to
quickly react on market changes.
BACK DATA
When clients launch a new product, they need information on the size, development, concentration, etc. of
their specific market. The Nielsen databases contain information about more than 400 markets to answer
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TOOLS
Nielsen | i-sights and i-reports are tools available via Nielsen Answers. Nielsen | i-sights provide an easy
access to information and are easily used by professionals of the client service management for instance. They
are dynamic graphs and tables which analyze contents and all other information related to the Nielsen
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68
ANALYTIC SERVICES
Nielsen services offer a wide range of ad-hoc solutions; starting from special tracking, in depth analysis to
complete marketing models. They are a perfect supplement to clients’ ScanTrack data, enabling them to
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decisions.
• Weekend Out-Of-Stock: surveys executed during a number of key weekends (both on Friday and Saturday)
and provide a view of the stock-status, the refill percentage and facings of products at retailers.
• Store observations: service to verify or track a certain parameter (e.g. special promotion, extra shelf space,
type of displays, …) within a predefined number of retailers).
• On Trade: information about products in pubs and dancings.
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69
ANALYTIC CONSULTING SERVICES
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information, etc.)
• Assortman identifies saturated/expansion segments of a category, products that maximise performance of
the category and simulates future scenarios in terms of assortment, in line with clients’ needs and wishes.
• Assortman Promo conducts an in-depth study of promotional pressure and analyses the optimal spread of
this pressure over the various categories and segments.
• Scan*Pro Promo conducts an in-depth study of promotions and gives clients crucial information on
promotional impact and effectiveness, and on loss of market share etc., both from a reference point of view,
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• Scan*Pro Price calculates the price elasticity's at the absolute price level and the price differences between
competitor’s products and a client’s products.
• Market Forecast forecasts clients’ future sales at category and at total market level.
• Out of Stock Diagnosis conducts an in-depth study of the out of stock issue and calculates the lost sales
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• Due to analysis provides marketers with a strategic understanding of the factors which drive sales
(distribution, weather and seasonality, macro-economic changes,…)
70
REVENUE MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION (RMO)
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percent of that spending doesn’t drive the desired results.
Nielsen’s end-to-end revenue management optimization boosts the effectiveness of trade promotions by
aligning information-rich, analytic-driven decision making with the complete selling process. In short, we help
companies connect revealing sales data with the right technology and proven processes. With a
comprehensive vision across these areas, we can help you improve pricing decisions, enhance the efficiency of
trade spending and ensure product availability.
Strategic planning: Make more confident annual price and promotion strategies based on extensive scenario
planning, driven by using predictive analytics to drive precise promotion strategies and execution-oriented
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through event-level scenario planning and predictive analytics.
Integrated promotion management: Create promotion programs that effectively integrate execution,
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Post-event analytics: Perform comprehensive profit and loss analyses after each event to guide future
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71
CONSUMER RESEARCH SERVICES
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positioning of their brands and brand awareness on the Belgian market.
• The Shopper Research study helps to better understand the consumer behaviour in the Shop (behaviour in
front of the shelf, …)
• The Trade eQ satisfaction study measures the satisfaction of retailers about products or the way clients
manage certain daily issues.
• The ShopperTrends study measures how loyal a shopper is to a store, how often he visits the store, how he
perceives the Belgian retailers, … This study also provides a global vision of the shopper of today and his
preference criteria for one or more chains
• The Winning Brands study analyses the factors that drive the consumer to buy and defines the strengths
and weaknesses of a brand versus its competitors.
• Concepts@work - Packs@work - Ads@work: These three tools will help to know how a consumer perceives
a new concept, a packaging or various themes for an advertisement.
• The Price-it-Right study analyses the price perception of an existing or a new product
72
MERCHANDISING SERVICES
MERCHANDISING
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MY.SPACEMAN
my.spaceman is a software that integrates all the below merchandising applications with a unified user
interface. It works on a centralized database and enables to manage users’ profiles more easily.
•Shelf space optimization with Spaceman Suite
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73
NEXIUM
Nexium customer intelligence platform helps consumer goods companies improve account planning, trade
terms optimization, maximizing trade-promotion effectiveness. Intuitive user interfaces for a superior user
experience. A flexible and modular architecture that enables companies to effectively integrate specific
modules or the complete suite.
Nexium shopper marketing solution: covers all the functions for category managers from creating the
strategy and building the plan to monitoring real situation in the stores. Drives enormous productivity to
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74
NIELSEN INTERNATIONAL SOLUTIONS
International solutions
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· How different are market mechanisms and structures between countries?
Knowledge and Information for Decision-Making
Information is easily accessible to marketing en sales managers through the Answers technology. Our team
can also help companies to integrate solutions or data from different data sources : e.g. ex-factory data,
financial information and external market researches.
Innovation Analytics
In order to achieve breakthrough innovation success, you need to know which aspects of your products work
and which don’t, before you launch. We can help you determine through a consultative approach that
illuminates how to capitalize on features that are outstanding and fix those that aren’t.
75
DIRECT DATA SOLUTIONS
Nielsen On Shelf Availability (OSA)
Manufacturers and retailers need to manage an ever wider amount of information. Our experts can offer
them a solution for all their Direct Data issues (efficient management of the point of sale or the product
availability in the shelves)
NIELSEN STORE
In the Nielsen store clients find essential and accessible market information 24/7 to support their fast
decisions in order to let their business grow and prosper. It includes European country by
country information by category, manufacturer or cross category summaries.
www.store.nielsen.com
76
ADVERTISING INFORMATION SERVICES (AIS)
MDB ADEX
Provides clients with the software tools and data for comprehensive reliable media and marketing analysis to
help them optimize their business. Generates competitive advertising data (both creative and quantitative)
and auditing services using our own state-of-the-art capturing and monitoring systems, algorithms and
databases.
MDB ADEX provide a wide coverage of the media-mix, whilst offering personalized services tailored to exact
requirements:
•
Advertising Expenditure Monitoring (ADEX)
•
Media Monitoring & Auditing solutions
•
Media Audience Measurements & Analysis
ARIANNA
Today’s increasingly complex television environment is driving a need for more advanced software to process,
manage and interpret the growing amounts of audience data. Arianna helps our clients transform local
overnight ratings data into a marketplace advantage and more efficiently meet the daily needs of
Management, Research and Sales
77
ADVERTISING INFORMATION SERVICES (AIS)
TV EVENTS MONITORING SYSTEM
Nielsen’s system operates as a fully integrated solution encapsulating all the stages of the TV Events data
production process:
•
Capture of the broadcast content
•
Automatic search and identification of the commercial spots
•
Assists the operator to input accurate program details
•
Runs the quality control
•
Generates output file in any format required by the end users’ chosen analysis software application
78
The Nielsen Company Belgium
Avenue de Pléiades / Plejadenlaan 73
1200 Brussels
Belgium
Tel 32 (0)2 778 70 11
Fax 32 (0)2 778 70 78
www.nielsen.com

Grocery Universe 2012

Transcription

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