1 Toekomstonderzoek in een beleidscontext: voorbij de glazen bol?

The views expressed are purely those of the
author and may not in any circumstances be
regarded as stating an official position of the
European Commission.
Toekomstonderzoek in een beleidscontext:
voorbij de glazen bol?
Peter De Smedt
Foresight and Behavioural Insights
Unit
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
European Commission
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation
Bio
Background: environmental research on Ecological System Analyses
(KU Leuven, BE)
Professional challenge: connecting science & policy in domains such as
Integrated Water Management, Sustainable Development, Transitions
and Innovation
Experience

> 17 y on a broad range of regional and EU research projects involving
foresight, integrated and impact assessment

working together with experts and stakeholders towards achieving a common
understanding on non-sustainable trends, offering scenarios and integrated
solutions to support policy-makers.
Contact: [email protected]
1
JRC’s Mission and Role
… is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and
technical support throughout the whole policy cycle.
Direct research:
JRC is the European Commission's in-house
science service and the only DG executing direct
research and providing science advice to EU policy.
Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation
JRC in Europe
Established in 1957
7 institutes in 5 countries
1800 researchers (2800 staff)
> 1200 scientific
publications (annually)
> 200 files EU policy
support (annually)
2
Overzicht
1.
Begripsverkenning
2.
Beleidscontext
3.
Glazen bol voorbij? (methoden)
4.
Case a. Industrial Landscape Vision 2025
5.
Case b. De Lage Landen 2040
1. Begripsverkenning:
toekomstonderzoek, toekomstverkenning,
foresight, la prospective, …
6
3
2. Begripsverkenning
Toekomstverkenningen zijn een
manier om onderbouwd en
systematisch na te denken over
belangrijke nieuwe trends en
mogelijke veranderingen op lange
termijn.
http://www4dar.vlaanderen.be/sites/svr/Methoden/Pages/toekomstverkenningen.aspx
7
1. Begripsverkenning
•
A non-deterministic, participatory and multi-disciplinary approach to
anticipate mid- to long-term alternative futures.
•
Foresight provides a space to different stakeholders and expert for systemic
thinking and developing anticipatory knowledge. It explores future changes
by understanding and analysing possible future developments and challenges
and to support stakeholders to actively shape the future vision for today
strategies and actions.
•
http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.htm
8
4
2. Beleidscontext: complexiteit / schaal verandering
9
2. Beleidscontext: complexiteit / schaal verandering
"Foresight [Scenarios] are about impact, not probability. They
are about spurring creative imagination, not escaping into
false precision."
Patrick Marren, Chasing Black Swan Tails
"Thinking through stories, and talking in depth about their
implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions
about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most
powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’
about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our
creativity and resourcefulness.”
Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an
Uncertain World
10
5
2. Beleidscontext:
objectieven (n = 2200)
Source: European Union (2009) Mapping Foresight Revealing how Europe
and other world regions navigate into the future.
11
3. Glazen bol voorbij
(methoden)
FR
Prospective
Business
(Shell, GBN)
FR, BE,
NL
Technology
forecasting
(Delphi)
Scenario
planning
Planning
Forecasts
USA, Japan,
DE, FR, AT,
APEC
Technology
foresight
Futures
Outlook
UK, DE,
Nordic,
UNIDO
OECD,
UNEP, IEA
12
6
3. Glazen bol voorbij
Early
Foresight
time/future has fascinated many (incl. scientists)
1950
principles of trend extrapolation and methods of expert analysis
act of policy anticipation
(e.g. Delphi & cross-impact)
1960
technology-oriented forecasting activities
computer simulations in different domains
1970
(oil
shocks)
(probability: what is likely to happen …)
recognition of complexity and uncertainty of systems, societies and
economies
la prospective, multiple futures thinking and scenarios
1980
(business scenarios, prospective, environmental and energy assessments,
…)
1990
national foresight activities on Science and Technology
recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society
2000
emphasis on processes and products: participatory activities:
multi-scale foresight scope (globalisation)
2010
foresight capacity essential anticipating crisis
social media
13
3. Glazen bol voorbij
(methoden)
Vele benaderingen:
afhankelijk van
opzet, proces en
eindproduct.
http://www4dar.vlaanderen.be/sites/svr/Methoden/
Pages/toekomstverkenningen.aspx
14
7
15
3. Glazen bol
voorbij: bijdrage
Product
- Strategische informatie (duiding)
- Futures scenarios/ toekomstbeelden (verkenning)
- Visie (transformatie)
- Roadmaps (richting, prioriteiten en connecties)
Proces
- Testen beleidsvoorstellen (robustheid)
- Versterken netwerken (kennis transfer)
- Stimuleren communities (creativiteit, vertrouwen)
- Veerkracht (organisatie)
16
8
Case a. Industrial
Landscape Vision 2025
"How will standards facilitate new production systems in the
context of European Union innovation and competitiveness in
2025?“
Customer: European Commission - DG Enterprise and Industry
Our entry point
was to develop an
Industrial
Landscape Vision
2025 to identify
the needs and new
roles of standards
Case b De Lage Landen 2040
CROSSING INNOVATION BOUNDARIES, THE
ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF SCOPE AND SCALE
Peter De Smedt JRC (EC), Frans van der Zee TNO
(NL) & Walter Manshanden TNO (NL)
Panel Session: Regional innovation systems
5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow
Brussels, 27-28 November 2014
9
Foresight practice:
further reading
•
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, Strategic Intelligence
for an Innovative Economy. Cagnin, C., Keenan, M.,
Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., Barré, R. (Eds.) Springer, 2008.
•
Mapping Foresight Revealing how Europe and other world
regions navigate into the future. European Union, 2009.
•
The Handbook on Technology Foresight. L. Georghiou, J.
Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, R. Popper (Eds.).
Elgar, 2009.
•
Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future
Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. D. Meissner, L.
Gokhberg, A. Sokolov (Eds.). Springer, 2013
•
Participation And Interaction In Foresight. Dialogue,
Dissemination and Visions. K. Borch, S. Dingli , M. Søgaard
Jørgensen (Eds.). Elgar, 2013.
19
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
www.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Thank You!
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation
10