Life Cycle Analysis - Wind Farm Logistics Portal

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Life Cycle Analysis - Wind Farm Logistics Portal
Blauwdruk System Specs
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Blauwdruk Requirements
1. Wind Fish Farm analysis: hele park kan aangepast worden aan de parameters (voor
meerjarig onderhoud).
2. Analyse: voordelen kunnen bekeken worden a.d.h.v. verschillende parameters
3. Year Scenario’s LCA: verschillende settings zijn mogelijk.
4. Zichtbaar maken van kosten die voortkomen uit de jaarscenario’s.
5. LCA data: Sale Prices worden gegenereerd.
6. Prijsstijgingen [met (on)zekerheids marges] kunnen gemoduleerd worden.
7. Technische en financiële data van het park kunnen geanalyseerd worden.
Een nieuwe factor is het ‘Synergy Percentage’. Met dit % wordt aangegeven in welke
mate de O&M kosten van de Wind Farm kunnen worden gereduceerd door minder
wachttijd t.l.v. de Wind Farm te laten komen (uit publicaties (2005-2012) blijkt dit in die
tijd rond de 30% te zijn) In huidige situaties is er bijvoorbeeld sprake van 40-50%
tijdverlies door; transitkosten, slechte afstemming, wachttijden, dus een
synergievoordeel van 10% zou al een hele verbetering zijn!
Resultaat: berekenen van revenuen, system cost-effectiveness, market value, return of
investment én grafieken waarin dit wordt weergegeven.
Ref.: verschillende Blauwdruk afstemmeetings.
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LCA Data per Life Cycle Year Period
Operational
Environment
Model
Logistics/
Maintenance
Model
Q&D-LCA, per Installation:
- Period
- Total Cost (k€)
- Active Time (days)
- Availability (%)
- Reliability (%)
- Capability (%)
Asset LCM
D-LCA, per Activity:
- Actor Spec’s
- Product Sort
- Labor Cost
- Material Cost
- Other Cost
Quick LCA:
- YS Excel Sheets
Detailed LCA:
- LCC Matrix
- LCM Baseline Sheets
- Risk Matrix & Register
- Environmental Impact Sheets
- ………
Model
(AMICO2)
Operational
Utilization
Model
Year Periods ≤ 1 Year:
START
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LIFE CYCLE
D-LCA
Operational Environment Impact
Factor per Installation/Component
(PM)
- Temperature load factor
- Humidity load factor
- Dust/Salt/Chemical load factor
- Terrain/Sea/Sky load factor
- ……..
Q&D-LCA per Period:
-
Cost
System Effectiveness
Cost Drivers
Performance Killers
D-LCA Operational Utilization
Impact Factor per
Installation/Component (PM)
- Duration load factor
- Peak load factor
- Usage load factor
- Enforce load factor
- ………
LCA
Business
Model
Q-LCA
- Return of Investment
- Value of Performance
- Asset Market Value
- Total Cost of Ownership
- System Cost-Effectiveness
- (most likely, max. and min. result):
- Trend Indication of External Factors
D-LCA:
- Environmental Impact
- ………….
END
Context Diagram
LCM Team
System of Interest
External Systems
Energy Demand from
Company
Asset Owner
1.000x50.000
Wind Fish Farm
Asset Manager
Power Distribution
from Shore
Mussel Unload
factoring
Service Providers
Financial
Environment
Technical
Environment
North Sea
Eco System
Environment(s)
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Climate
System
Law &
Regulators
System Identification Diagram
1.000x50.000 Wind Fish Farm
Operations & Maintenance
System
Condition
Maintenance
Monitoring
Wind Farm
Mussel Farm
Electrical Grid and
Distribution System
Long Lines
Meteo &
Nautical Navigation
System
Wind
Turbines
Foundations
End Piles
Installations
Transport System
Vessels
Cable to
Shore
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Power
Distribution
Onshore
Mussel
Harvest &
Transport
Mussel Unload
Factoring &
Distribution
Mussel
Socks
CASE: 1.000x50.000 Cash Flow Farm
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200 MW Wind Turbine Clusters
12.500 ton Mussel Farming Clusters
Electrical Grid & Distribution System
Shipping Lanes
Wind Fish Farm Outline
The WFF exists of:
5 wind clusters of 10x4 km each, with 40x5 MW wind turbines
4 fish clusters of 10x4 km each, with 40x15x3=1.800 mussel long line systems
4 main shipping lanes of 1 km wide.
14 km
32 km
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Wind Farm including Auxiliary Systems
10 km
~ 5 x 50 km
Wind Farm Grid
Subsea Cable
1x Wind Farm
Sub Station
4 x Wind Farm
Meteorological and
Navigation Mast
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4 km
5 x 40 5MW
Wind Turbine
Incl. Foundation
Mussel Farm Cluster Outline
The Mussel Farm Cluster exists of:
• 1.800 mussel long line systems of 100m and placed in lines of 4 km
• 150 m minimum wide shipping lanes between the long lines
• 8-15 tons production of mussel per system per year
• 12.000-25.000 tons production per cluster per year
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Transport System
Offshore Wind and Fish Farming Support Ship
(capable to operate in 3 meters significant wave height)
Main Dimensions
Length
Length over all
Molded breadth
Least molded depth
Mean operating draught
Displacement
Block coefficient
Symbol
Lpp
LOA
B
D
T
Δ
Cb
Value
66.69
70.00
13.20
6.00
3.44
2365
0.78
Unit
m
m
m
m
m
m3
-
Motion Compensated Crane
Boom length
Operating luff angle
Max motion compensated lift
Max non-motion compensated lift
Overall Mass
Installed Power pack
Construction
26.0m
60°
3 t @ all
13t @ 13m
22 t
2*200 kW
Aluminum/Steel
Wilco Stavenuiter, 2009
Deck load: 12x20 ft. containers (Tools & Spares)
CARGO HOLD
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Accommodation: 50 persons.
The accommodation is applied with as much as
possible double cabins to improve the comfort
when the accommodation is not completely filled.
Dimensioning of the accommodation is guided by
the SBM accommodation standard and the NMD
and ILO C133 code. At least it should comply with
SOLAS.
Cargo (fish/mussel) Hold: 600 ton
Estimations: CAPEX: 20-30 M€, OPEX: 2,5 M€
Mussel Harvest Subsystem (to be developed)
Estimated Cost (price level 2013)
CAPEX (10 yr. depr.)
OPEX (anual)
Special equipment used in combination with MC Crane
€ 350.000,-
€ 30.000,-
Some examples of existing systems
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Tooling and Spars Container Support System
18x20 ft.
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Estimated Cost (price level 2013)
CAPEX (10 yr. depr.)
OPEX (anual)
Special equipped Tooling & Spares Container
€ 20.000,-
€ 1.000,-
Subsea Power Cable Subsystem References
Date: 2009
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/62196427-C4E4-483E-A43E-85ED4E9C0F65/39230/ODISAppendicesFinal_0110.pdf
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Operations & Maintenance Mgt System
The O&M Management System and - Process will be defined and estimated as part of the Year Scenarios.
The OPEX (including the depreciation on CAPEX) is estimated on 10 to 20 m€ per year, depending on the O&M strategy.
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Modeling System of Systems
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Modeling the Systems Structure
Function Diagram
Mgt & Control
Functions
connected to
Systems do not
have an IF!
Mgt &
Control
IF
Product/
actor
Allow
Product/Actor
connections to
Mgt & Control
functions
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Modeling the Installation Block Diagrams
Installation Diagram
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Modeling the Activity Diagrams
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N.a. for Quick LCA!
LCM Year Plan
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LCA Model Sheets
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Wind Farm Analysis & Control
Year Scenarios
Life Cycle Data Wind Farm
Life Cycle Data Long Lines
WPSP
MSP
SE Calculation
LCA Portal Design Concept
LCA Portal Design Planning 2013
Wind Farm Analysis & Control
Aqua & Wind Farm Synergy:
Combines the O&M Cost (Wind + Mussel Farm) and subtracts the Mussel Profits in order to achieve
Wind Farm O&M Cost reduction.
Fixed Calculations:
Makes the variables fixed to their average value over the Life Cycle. Variables are
MCF,OEF,WPSP,MSP,CMA,WPI.
CMCI:
Corrective Maintenance Clearance Index
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Wind Farm Analysis & Control
Price Elasticity (Wind Farm & Fish Farm)
Price Elasticity simulates the uncertainty of the sales price development over the Life Cycle, can
be adjusted individually for Wind Sales Price and Mussel Sales Price.
Select Multi Year Maintenance (Wind Farm & Fish Farm)
The MYM (Multi Year Maintenance) is the Maintenance Period in years, where in the last year a
Retrofit & Overhaul will be done. The Retrofit & Overhaul resets the SY (System Effectiveness) to
100%.
Synergy Factor
The factor at which within the O&M Offshore Wind budget, Mussel Farming activities can be done
by combining both the O&M Strategies.
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Wind Farm Analysis & Control
Analysis by:
• System Cost Effectiveness Charts
• Total O&M Cost en Synergy Benefits overview
Overview Synergy Benefits by:
• Revenues
• Market Values
• Profit’s
• Capital Loan
• Asset Control Overview
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Year Scenarios
System Declining Factor: Declining of the MTBF for increasing chance of Failure
Active Time: The required Active Time excluding planned maintenance
Operation Time: The period that the Wind Farm is active between Planned Maintenance
Mean Malfunction over one year: Average Wind Turbines\ Long Lines in malfunction per year.
Maintenance Surveys: Number of planned Maintenance Surveys
Mean Time Between Failure: Average Time between failures
Mean Time To Repair: Average time to repair a failure
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Year Scenarios
Operations:
Plan, Direct & Control Power Production
Life Cycle Management:
Plan, Direct & Control Maintenance Activities
Improvement O&M:
Modification & Refitting for improving Cost-Effectiveness
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Year Scenarios
Inspective Maintenance:
Calendar Based Surveys
Preventive Maintenance:
Calendar / Condition Based Maintenance
Corrective Maintenance:
Planned / Unplanned Repairs (Non-Critical / Critical)
Improvement O&M:
Modification & Refitting for improving Cost-Effectiveness
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LCA Model Sheets
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Wind Farm Analysis & Control
Year Scenarios
Life Cycle Data Wind Farm
Life Cycle Data Long Lines
WPSP
MSP
SE Calculation
LCA Portal Design Concept
LCA Portal Design Planning 2013
Sales Prices over the Life Cycle
With Sales Price tab the Price Elasticity can be defined:
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Trend Progression: Yr(A+1)=A+(a*sin(qx) + b*x + c)*(1-d(ASELECT-0,5))
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D = Price Elasticity:
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0 = Sales Price are predictable and have constant inflation.
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10 = Sales Price are unpredictable and market crash can occur.
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Life Cycle Data
Installation Declining Factor = Installation & Subsystem Degradation per Year
Preventive Maintenance Factor = % PM of Total Maintenance Cost
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Life Cycle Data
MCF: Management Control Factor
OEF: Operation Excellence Factor
WPSP: Wind Power Sales Price (Sales price (€) for Asset Owner per MW/h)
Corrective Maintenance Aselect (prorated failure probability factor)
Wind Power Index (prorated failure probability factor)
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Life Cycle Data
OP: Operation Time = AT/times Inspective Maintenance Surveys
MTBF: Mean Time Between Failure = MTBF=MTBF(last)*(1-(IDF+0,025*(1-PMF/0,5))*1/MCF)
MTTR: Mean Time To Repair = Set in Year Scenario
Av: Availability = Per Installation (MTBF-MTTR)/MTBF
Re: Reliability = e^- OP/MTBF/365
Cap: Capability = 100% by default
SE; System Effectiveness = f(Av,Re,Cap)
FYC: Farm Yield Coefficient = FYC= FYC(bl)*SE(actual)*WPI(actual)
URD: Use Related Degradation = F(URD)=1-(0,5-0,5*RDP/IDP)*CPY(act)/CPY(baseline)
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Life Cycle Data
Life Cycle Financial Data including:
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Life Cycle Management Cost
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Operations Cost
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Improvement O&M Cost
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Inspective Maintenance Cost
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Preventive Maintenance Cost
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Corrective Maintenance Cost
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Capital Cost
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Synergy Cost
O&M Discipline Cost:
As defined In Year Scenario (including inflation rate)
Capital Cost:
Capital Loan * Interest Rate
Synergy Cost:
O&M Offshore Wind Cost – Synergy Factor
Synergy Factor = The factor[%] that Mussel Farming activities can
take place within O&M Offshore Wind budget[€] by reducing waiting
times.
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Life Cycle Data
Life Cycle Down & Uptime:
Failure Rate = 1/MTBF
Failure Rate / Installation = Failure Rate * Nr. Of Installations per System
Failure Rate / WT = Failure Rate / Installation * Nr of Installations per Cluster
Downtime Days / Year = Failure Rate / Installation * MTTR
Wind in Malfunction = (Downtime Days / Year) / 365
Uptime = (Nr of Inst. per Cluster – (Downtime Days per Year – 365))/ Nr of Inst. per Cluster
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Life Cycle Data
Life Cycle Results:
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Wind Power Production
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Cumulative Power Yield
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Wind Power Revenues
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Cumulative Power Revenues
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Profit
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Capital Loan
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Private Equity
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System Cost Effectiveness
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Market Value
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Return of Investment
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ROI Average Interest Rate
Results can be analysed in the Wind Farm Analysis &
Control tab
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Appendix I - Charts
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Appendix I - Charts
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Appendix I - Charts
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Appendix I - Charts
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LCA Portal Design Concept
Trend Settings
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LCA Portal Design Concept
Information Maintenance Plans
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LCA Portal Design Concept
e.g. an Asset Analysis Page
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