to view Hoppy Kercheval`s presentation to the CAWV.

Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval host of Talkline
Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio Network
The Changing Face of W t Vi i i P liti
West Virginia Politics  Dems control both WV chambers since 1930
 ‘32 election WV one of 42 states for FDR
32 election WV one of 42 states for FDR
 Dems Rule! 1932‐2004, 129 of 139 terms for statewide office won by Dems
 Exceptions: Arch Moore, Cecil Underwood, Cl B
Cleve Benedict. di t  WV is Big Blue 2000 Election George Bush
Al Gore President Herbert Herbert
Hoover The last time a h l
non‐incumbent p
Republican carried WV in a Presidential Race before 2000 was 1928. Buck Harless and George Bush The Southern West Virginia industrialist decides he wants to help Bush try to win the election. Buck’s a Pioneer
 1996 WV raises $22,000 for Bob Dole
 2000 Harless pledges to raise $100,000
2000 Harless pledges to raise $100 000
 Bush people set his goal at $35,000
 Harless raises $275,000
 “Well
Well, what do you know?
what do you know?”
 Bush starts paying attention to WV
NRA President Charleton
h l
Heston
“It gave those ‘ol
boys chills.” State Senator Shirley Love Bush Wins WV
 Bush wins Raleigh by 1,500 votes
 UMWA: “Stay home.”
UMWA: Stay home.
 Bush loses southern WV 2‐1 instead of 3‐1 or 4‐1
 Bush carries WV 52‐46, by 40,000 votes
 Bush gets WV 5 electoral votes
h
l
l
Hanging Hanging
chads
Florida vote controversy leaves 2000 election undecided WV decides the election
WV decides the election  270 electoral votes needed to win
 Bush 271 w/WV and Florida. Gore 267
 If Gore had carried WV with its 5 electoral votes he would have 272 without Florida
 The GOP nominee for President has carried WV i h f l ti
WV in each of elections since 2000
i Robert C. Byrd Live boy, dead Live boy
dead woman
•Top of the ticket leader with down‐ballot strength
•June 28, 2010
•Democratic bench weakness
•
Party registration shifts
 1994 65% of WV voters registered Democratic
 2004 58% of WV voters registered Democratic
 2012 52% of WV voters registered Democratic
 2014 49.9% of WV Voters registered Democratic
4 49 9
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 GOP Chair Conrad Lucas: “This is a really historic day for our state and our party.”  2016 46% of WV Voters registered Democratic
WV Voter Registration Trends 70%
60%
50%
40%
Dem
30%
Repub
Indep
20%
10%
0%
1994
2004
2012
2014
But wait a minute…
 Dems hold 577,000 to 379,000 advantage
 Dem majority in 43 of 55 counties
 GOP % registration has stayed the same, just below 30%
 1994 39,000 independent voters
 Today 257,576 independent voters, 21%
 Why pick a party? Epic 2012 Primary showdown Obama wins Primary, but…
 2012 Primary Election: Obama 106,000 and Keith Judd with 72 000
Keith Judd with 72,000
 “I voted against Obama,” said ,
electrician Ronnie Brown
 Obama lost to Clinton Ob
l Cli
by 41 points in 2008 Primary National Dem leftward lean
 EPA rules and mine permit rules damage coal industryy
 UMWA President Cecil Roberts: “National Democratic Party has forgotten about men and women who take a shower at the end of the workday.
the workday.”
 Obamacare unpopular in WV
WV Dems as Sisyphus in 2014
st
WV 1
Congressional District
David McKinley 64%
Glen Gainer 36%
nd
WV 2
Congressional District
Alex Mooney 47%
Nick Casey 44%
rd
WV 3
Congressional District
Evan Jenkins 55%
Nick Rahall 45%
U.S. Senate Shelley Moore Capito 62%
Natalie Tennant 35%
WV Legislature flips
 House: GOP picks up 17 seats… 47‐53 to 64‐
336
 Senate: 10‐24 to 17‐17
 Dem. Sen. Daniel Hall switches parties, Dem Sen Daniel Hall switches parties giving Dems 18‐16 advantage in Senate.  Bill Cole elected Senate President, Tim Bill C l l t d S
t P id t Ti Armstead elected House Speaker The 15 Year Transition
 GOP Presidential nominee carries WV
 GOP holds all three Congressional seats
 GOP has first U.S. Senator since 1958
 GOP controls both House and Senate for first time since 1930
 Losses put Dems
L
D
on their heals
h i h l
2012 Election Election
Results Many experts say West g
Virginia’s transition was one of the last in a series of southern states going red. Is West Virginia Really Red?
 2016 should tell us because…
 Presidential election  All three Congressional seats are up
 All House of Delegates seats, half the Senate
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 Governor  Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General, ,
y
,
y
,
Auditor
 Local races Ji J i
Bill C l
Jim Justice vs. Bill Cole
Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll (May)
Justice 52%
Cole 34%
Preference for WV Legislative Control
Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll
Not Sure, 18%
Democrat, 38%
e oc at, 38%
Republican, 44%
%
Senator Joe Manchin •47% Approve 47
pp
•37% Disapprove
•16% Not Sure
% S
•Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll
Senator Shelley Moore Capito 53% Approve
26% disapprove
21% not Sure
Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Governor Earl
Governor Earl Ray Tomblin 47% Approve
32% Disapprove 21% Not Sure
Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll President
President Barack Obama 24% Approve
71% Disapprove
5% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Right Track or Wrong Track?
Metronews West Virginia Poll by
Metronews West Virginia Poll by Repass Research  28% WV headed in right direction
 56% WV headed in wrong direction
 15% Not sure
 Better if WV has GOP or Dem as next Gov?
B tt if WV h GOP D t G ?
 34% Democrat
 37% Republican
 29% Not Sure 9% Not Su e
What does it
What does it all mean?
•Blue to red
•Leftward lean by national Dems
hurts WV Dems
•Dems need to regain g
momentum
•Republicans on short leash •Past not prologue
Tight budget budget
times in WV Gov. Tomblin: bl
“This was one of the most challenging budget years I ve dealt with I’ve dealt with in my 42 years of public service.””
st
Tobacco Tax Increase (1
plan)
 Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 45 cents up to $1 per pack.
 Fails in the House 45‐55.  All but one of 36 House Democrats vote against the bill
g
 Only 44 of the 64 House Republicans vote for the bill nd
Tobacco Tax Increase (2
plan)
 Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 65 cents to $1.20 per pack
 Passes the House 63‐35
 21 of 36 Democrats vote for the bill
 42 of 64 Republicans vote for the bill
 Two month regular session and 17 day special session to pass tobacco tax increase
Tax/fee increase difficulty
 27% of West Virginians smoke
 Let’s say 40% of them vote
 120,000 West Virginians directly affected by the cigarette tax are actual voters out of 1.2 million registered voters
 Great difficulty passing a tax increase even though i’ it’s on an unpopular activity affecting a small l i i ff i ll percentage of voters
E
b d ’
Everybody’s Driving
•1.3 million private and 3
p
commercial vehicles registered in WV. (Source: FHA)
•More vehicles than M hi l h there are registered voters.
•If 40% of vehicle owners vote that’s 520,000 voters.
•2012 Gov race Tomblin beat Maloney by 335,000 to 303,000.
•Politicians are super sensitive to any vehicle‐
iti t hi l
related tax/fee increase.
Gas price Gas price
obsession Do you know any product where the average price is $30‐40 where we compare i i h prices to the tenth of a cent? Benefits Received Principle
“As much as possible, the taxpayer s burden should reflect taxpayer’s burden should reflect the benefit received from the Government.” Source: Governor’s Commission on Fair Taxation report. December 1999.
December 1999
Increasing taxes or fees for anything
You see: “Just 80 cents a day buys ”
day buys…
They see: “My taxes are My taxes are going up…” House of Delegates
 GOP 64 seat majority is splintered.
 Social issues, Common Core, Religious Freedom Restoration Act, raw milk.
 A large chunk fundamentally opposed to ANY higher taxes or fees.  Liberty Caucus influence.
 House Whip John O’Neal voted against leadership on 45 cent cigarette tax increase. g
Yogi Berra
“When Wh you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
Who will be in charge?
Governor Bill Cole? Governor Jim Justice? Support or Oppose…
 Increase in motor vehicle sales tax 5% to 6%.
 Increase DMV fees.
 Maintaining tolls on turnpike.
 Building new state toll roads.
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 Increase in state gasoline tax.
 Statewide road bond issue.
 Empowering counties to raise taxes for roads.
 Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies. Restructure West Virginia Government
•“That’s the way we’ve always done it.” d
i ” •“Status quo” is Latin for “The mess we’re in.” Ronald Reagan.
•What government must do, What government must do what government wants to do. (infrastructure, education, protect the public)
•Decentralize authority.
•Measure performance by outcomes, not inputs and outputs. •Strive for market‐based S i f k b d solutions, not bureaucratic solutions.
•With declining revenue and rising costs government has rising costs, government has to be more efficient. Convergence of Forces
Political Economic Politics is the process by which power is distributed and d
decisions are made.
d
Questions? Thanks to the h k
h
Contractors Association of West Virginia and Mike Clowser.
Clowser