Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
Morning Briefing
October 6, 2014
There is a quieter start to the coming
week, with Monday seeing largely
second tier data. However there is
will be a smattering of central bank
appearances to keep traders on their
toes.
Bundesbank Vice-President Claudia
Buch and Bundesbank Board
member Andreas Dombret will take
part in a public hearing of the
Bundesbank financial committee, in
Berlin at 1100GMT.
Early data sees the release of the
German August manufacturing
orders at 0600GMT, to be followed
by the German August VDMA
machine orders at 0800GMT.
The US calendar gets underway
from 1400GMT, when the Fed
Reserve releases its first report on
Labor Market Conditions Index. Also
due at 1400GMT is the September
employment trends index and the
Canadian September IVEY PMI.
The UK calendar gets underway at
0800GMT, when the SMMT
September car registrations data is
published, followed by the BOE H1
housing equity withdrawal data at
0830GMT.
Bundesbank Board member Andreas
Dombret will give a speech on stable
monetary union, in Washington at
1600GMT.
At the same time, the EMU October
sentiment index will be published.
Global Economic Trading Calendar
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew chairs
meeting of Financial Stability
Oversight Council, with Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and
others in Washington.
At 0030GNT, Kansas City Fed
President Esther George will deliver
a speech on the economy, in
Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Sovereign bond issuance in the
Eurozone this week slows down -only Austria, Germany and Ireland
due to come to the market with
supply estimated to come in at
E6.85bln vs E28.95bln sold last
week.
Markets
FOREX: A relatively subdued
morning in Asia-Pacific FX markets
this morning as a new week gets
underway. Many countries in the
region are closed today for holidays,
including China, which is into its
second-last day of the "golden week"
holidays. Overall tone has been
profit-taking against the US dollar's
gains following last Friday's strong
US September non-farm payrolls
data. Dollar-yen was last at Y109.62
after trading a Y109.55 to Y109.87
range this morning, compared with
Friday's US close of Y109.77.
Aussie-dollar was last at $0.8696,
near the of a $0.8653 to $0.8700
range this morning. The aussie
closed at $0.8675 on Friday. Eurodollar meanwhile was last at
$1.2518, also near the top of a
$1.2504 to $1.2521 range but not
very much changed from the Friday
close of $1.2516.
US INDEX FUTURES: US stock
index futures are trading with a bid
tone during Monday's Asian session,
with gains in Hong Kong stocks
aiding the positive sentiment, despite
the ongoing protests with tensions
rising over the weekend. Currently
the Dec S&P futures are trading up
5.10 points at 1965.40, the Dec
Nasdaq is trading up 13.00 points at
4029.00, while the Dec Dow is
trading up 44 points at 16,695.
been told to evacuate due to the risk
of landslides, NHK reports. The
Nikkei 225 has closed for lunch up
1.30% or 203.89 points at 15,912.54,
while the Topix closed up 1.34% of
17.17 points at 1,299.71.
US STOCKS CLOSE: U.S. stocks
rose in response to the upbeat US
jobs report and were buoyant at
Friday's close. The DJIA closed up
209 pts at 17,009.69, the Nasdaq
Composite up 45 pts at 4,475.624
and the S&P 500 up 22 pts at
1,967.90-day moving average, at
1,975.46.
GOLD: Spot gold last down $4.25 at
$1187.10 per ounce, in a $1183.23
to $1191.70 range so far this
morning in Asia, after touching near
a 4yr low in early Asian trading.
$1180 is major support, as a double
bottom from June and December
2013. The USD is mixed today in thin
trading, but the technical picture for
gold looks for prices back to $1080
then $1000 if $1180 breaks.
JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks
have concluded Monday's AM
session sharply higher, buoyed by a
weaker yen and following Wall
Street's strong gains on Friday.
However, trading has been subdued
as Typhoon Phanfone heads
towards Tokyo, resulting in many
participants staying home.
Highlighting the risks, residents of
the central ward of Minato have also
OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Nov'14
delivery last up $0.13 at $89.87 per
barrel, after a $89.39 to $89.90
range in Asia today, on low volume
with Singapore and Australian public
holidays, as well as China's weeklong break. Prices have recovered
slightly from Friday's lower levels, but
the overall picture of increasing
supply and only moderate demand
has rallies being sold..
Technical Analysis
BUND: (Z14) Bulls Dominate While 148.78-149.21 Region Supports
*RES 4: 151.45 Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 151.24 Low Aug 28 now resistance
*RES 2: 150.76 Low Aug 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 150.40 High Oct 1
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 149.94
*SUP 1: 149.45 Low Oct 3
*SUP 2: 149.21 Low Sept 29, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 148.78 Low Sept 24
*SUP 4: 148.57 Low Sept 22
*COMMENTARY: The 149.81 support was taken out Friday
but the lack of follow through and strong bounce back above
sees bulls retain some hope. The 148.78-149.21 support
region is key this week with bears needing a close below
148.78 to end bullish hopes and shift immediate focus to the
147.63-93 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above
150.40 to reconfirm bullish pressure and retain focus on the
2014 and record highs.
EUROSTOXX: Layers Of Resistance Looking Daunting
*RES 4: 3259.2 High Sept 25
*RES 3: 3224.7 21-DMA
*RES 2: 3188.4 Low Oct 1 now resistance
*RES 1: 3158.5 200-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3133.4
*SUP 1: 3101.1 61.8% Fibonacci 2977.5-3301.1
*SUP 2: 3065.2 Low Aug 20
*SUP 3: 3056.6 Low Aug 18
*SUP 4: 3028.6 Low Aug 15
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the Sept highs continued
last week with Stoxx50 closing below 55, 100 & 200-DMAs
following a sharp lower and bearish close Thursday. Bulls
need to see a close above the 200-DMA to confirm an
easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21DMA is needed to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift
focus back to the 200-DMA. Bearish focus has now returned
to retests of the Aug monthly low and then 2014 lows5.
.
.
..
.
.
Eurex Futures Market Close
Contact MNI:
Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400, [email protected]
MNI Sales - [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Published by
Eurex Frankfurt AG
Mergenthalerallee 61
65760 Frankfurt / Main
Germany
Eurex Zürich AG
Selnaustrasse 30
8021 Zurich
Switzerland
www.eurexchange.com
ARBN Number
Eurex Frankfurt AG ARBN 100 999
764
© Eurex, January 2008-2010
Deutsche Börse AG (DBAG), Clearstream Banking AG (Clearstream), Eurex Frankfurt AG, Eurex Clearing AG (Eurex Clearing) as well as Eurex Bonds GmbH (Eurex Bonds)
and Eurex Repo GmbH (Eurex Repo) are corporate entities and are registered under German law. Eurex Zürich AG is a corporate entity and is registered under Swiss law.
Clearstream Banking S.A. is a corporate entity and is registered under Luxembourg law. U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc.
(ISE) are corporate entities and are registered under U.S. American law. Eurex Frankfurt AG (Eurex) is the administrating and operating institution of Eurex Deutschland. Eurex
Deutschland and Eurex Zürich AG are in the following referred to as the “Eurex Exchanges”.
All intellectual property, proprietary and other rights and interests in this publication and the subject matter hereof (other than certain trademarks and service marks listed below)
are owned by DBAG and its affiliates and subsidiaries including, without limitation, all patent, registered design, copyright, trademark and service mark rights. While reasonable
care has been taken in the preparation of this publication to provide details that are accurate and not misleading at the time of publication DBAG, Clearstream, Eurex, Eurex
Clearing, Eurex Bonds, Eurex Repo as well as the Eurex Exchanges and their respective servants and agents (a) do not make any representations or warranties regarding the
information contained herein, whether express or implied, including without limitation any implied warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty
with respect to the accuracy, correctness, quality, completeness or timeliness of such information, and (b) shall not be responsible or liable for any third party’s use of any
information contained herein under any circumstances, including, without limitation, in connection with actual trading or otherwise or for any errors or omissions contained in this
publication.
This publication is published for information purposes only and shall not constitute investment advice respectively does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to
acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. This publication is not intended for solicitation purposes but only for use as general information. All
descriptions, examples and calculations contained in this publication are for illustrative purposes only.
Eurex and Eurex Clearing offer services directly to members of the Eurex exchanges respectively to clearing members of Eurex Clearing. Those who desire to trade any
products available on the Eurex market or who desire to offer and sell any such products to others or who desire to possess a clearing license of Eurex Clearing in order to
participate in the clearing process provided by Eurex Clearing, should consider legal and regulatory requirements of those jurisdictions relevant to them, as well as the risks
associated with such products, before doing so.
®
®
®
Eurex derivatives (other than EURO STOXX 50 Index Futures contracts, EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 Index Futures contracts, STOXX Europe 50 Index Futures
contracts, STOXX® Europe 600 Banks/Industrial Goods & Services/Insurance/Media/Travel & Leisure/Utilities Futures contracts, Dow Jones Global Titans 50 IndexSM Futures
®
®
®
®
contracts, DAX Futures contracts, MDAX Futures contracts, TecDAX Futures contracts, SMIM Futures contracts, SLI Swiss Leader Index® Futures contracts, Eurex
inflation/commodity/weather/property and interest rate derivatives) are currently not available for offer, sale or trading in the United States or by United States persons.
®
®
®
®
®
®
®
SM
®
®
Trademarks and Service Marks Buxl , DAX , DivDAX , eb.rexx , Eurex , Eurex Bonds , Eurex Repo , Eurex Strategy Wizard , Euro GC Pooling , FDAX , FWB®, GC
Pooling®,,GCPI®, MDAX®, ODAX®, SDAX®, TecDAX®, USD GC Pooling®, VDAX®, VDAX-NEW ® and Xetra® are registered trademarks of DBAG.
Phelix Base® and Phelix Peak® are registered trademarks of European Energy Exchange AG (EEX).
The service marks MSCI Russia and MSCI Japan are the exclusive property of MSCI Barra.
iTraxx® is a registered trademark of International Index Company Limited (IIC) and has been licensed for the use by Eurex. IIC does not approve, endorse or recommend Eurex
®
®
®
or iTraxx Europe 5-year Index Futures, iTraxx Europe HiVol 5-year Index Futures and iTraxx Europe Crossover 5-year Index Futures.
®
®
Eurex is solely responsible for the creation of the Eurex iTraxx Credit Futures contracts, their trading and market surveillance. ISDA neither sponsors nor endorses the
product’s use. ISDA® is a registered trademark of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.
IPD UK Annual All Property Index is a registered trademark of Investment Property Databank Ltd. IPD and has been licensed for the use by Eurex for derivatives.
SLI®, SMI® and SMIM® are registered trademarks of SIX Swiss Exchange AG.
The STOXX® indexes, the data included therein and the trademarks used in the index names are the intellectual property of STOXX Limited and/or its licensors Eurex
derivatives based on the STOXX® indexes are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by STOXX and its licensors and neither STOXX nor its licensors shall have any
liability with respect thereto.
Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Titans 50 IndexSM and Dow Jones Sector Titans IndexesSM are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity
IndexSM and any related sub-indexes are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and UBS AG. All derivatives based on these indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold
or promoted by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. or UBS AG, and neither party makes any representation regarding the advisability of trading or of investing in such products.
All references to London Gold and Silver Fixing prices are used with the permission of The London Gold Market Fixing Limited as well as The London Silver Market Fixing
Limited, which for the avoidance of doubt has no involvement with and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for the underlying product to which the Fixing prices may be
referenced.
PCS® and Property Claim Services® are registered trademarks of ISO Services, Inc.
Korea Exchange, KRX, KOSPI and KOSPI 200 are registered trademarks of Korea Exchange Inc.
BSE and SENSEX are trademarks/service marks of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and all rights accruing from the same, statutory or otherwise, wholly vest with BSE. Any
violation of the above would constitute an offence under the laws of India and international treaties governing the same.
The names of other companies and third party products may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners.