Weather Forecast and Warning Products

Transcription

Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Forecast
and
Warning Products
Christopher F. Perez
Weather Specialist II
Weather Forecasting Section, PAGASA
Weather Systems That Affect The Country
•Ridge of High Pressure Area
•Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
•Trough of a Low Pressure Area
•Monsoons
•Cold Front / Frontal System
•Low Pressure Area (LPA)
•Tropical Cyclone (Bagyo)
Weather System affecting the country
Ridge of High Pressure Area
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
L
TC
L
Trough
Monsoons
Cold Front / Frontal System
Low Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclone (Bagyo)
AREAS OF FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE
ANNUAL AVERAGE WORLDWIDE
Tropical Cyclone Statistics
•
•
An average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones enters or developed in the PAR
8 to 9 of Tropical cyclone made landfall
MONTHLY AVERAGE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY
MONTHLY AVERAGE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THAT MADE
LANDFALL
Forecast and Warning Products
1. Public weather forecasts
2. Shipping forecast
3. Aviation forecasts:
a) TAFOR
b) Airways and Terminal Forecast
c) Trend Forecast
d) SIGMET
4. Weather Bulletins
a) Weather Advisory
b) Tropical Cyclone Alert
c) Tropical Cyclone Warning
d) Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping
5. Special Weather Forecast/Outlook
6. Forecast for Selected Local and Asian Cities
and Tourist Destination
7. Gale Warning
PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST SAMPLE
PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST SAMPLE OUTPUT
Issuance time and forecast
validity
Synopsis is the state of the
general weather system
that directly or indirectly
affect any parts of the
country
Pressure Chart
Statement of the 24 hour
weather forecast for the
whole country
Statement of the 24 hour
wind speed and direction
with corresponding sea
condition forecast for the
entire archipelago
PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST SAMPLE OUTPUT
24
hour
Weather,
temperature
and
wind
including sea condition (if
applicable) to selected cities
Extended weather and
temperature outlook for
the next 4 days
Weather Icons
Shipping Forecast Sample
Anatomy of a Shipping Forecast
Issuance Area (RPMM for
Philippines), day and time,
title and beginning validity
Month and Year of
Issuance
Pressure Chart
Synopsis the state of
synoptic weather systems
affecting the shipping zones
and the wind and sea
condition for the forecast
Area
Forecast of wind and sea
condition for the 14 shipping
zones
Forecasters
WEATHER ADVISORY
□ General information on tropical cyclone or other
severe weather systems such as the southwest
monsoon, Low Pressure Area (LPA) and other weather
system that will cause floods/flashfloods and
landslides
□ For monsoons, low pressure area and other
severe weather systems, it describes the expected
weather condition in affected areas and its duration
WEATHER ADVISORY
□ For tropical cyclones that does not pose threat to any
part of the country for the next 3 to 4 days, it provides
additional details such as the maximum sustained
winds, movement and forecast positions in the next
72 hours.
□ Issued once a day - 11:00 AM unless significant
changes occurred in the weather scenario.
Weather Advisory sample
The statement of the
weather system
Time of issuance
The content of this
weather information is the
effect in terms of severity
of weather condition over
the stated specific areas
Statement of the advise to
the people in regards with
the weather system
The statement of the next
issuance and updates
•
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS/BULLETINS
Severe Weather Bulletin
•
•
Tropical Cyclone Alert
•
Tropical Cyclone Warning
•
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
• TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
 A tropical cyclone either enters or develops in the PAR and
has an impending threat to any part of the country.
 No public storm warning signal is in effect in any part of the
country.
 Its content is similar to an advisory, however, the frequency of
issuance of the alert bulletin shall be twice a day, at 11 AM
and 11 PM.
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT SAMPLE
Current location of the
typhoon, northern Luzon
was used as reference
point
Wind intensity of the
typhoon together with its
gustiness (bugso)
Forecast movement in speed
and direction
Forecast distance for
24, 48 & 72 hrs.
Graphical track of the
typhoon, the swat
represents deviation of
position for 24, 48 &
72 hours
Tropical Cyclone Warning
□
Upgraded from tropical cyclone alert
□ Necessary to put in effect public storm warning signal number one
over certain areas of the country
□ Tropical cyclone has a real threat to some communities, provinces
or regions in the country
□ The frequency of issuance is every six hours, at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM,
and 11PM.
Parts of Tropical Cyclone Warning
Impact statement
Storm warning signals
and the expected
impacts of the wind to
selected areas based
on forecast track of the
typhoon
Additional information
in terms of floods &
landslides and the
effects of storms surge
Sample of Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping
Anatomy of Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping
TITLE
Type of warning
based
on
wind
intensity (WARNING,
GALE, STORM AND
TYPHOON)
and
Warning Number
Warning Code (WTPH) –
warning for Tropical Cyclone
from the Philippines and
date and time of issuance
Statement of the Tropical
Cyclone initial position at the
time of issuance, forecast
speed and direction, maximum
winds, central pressure, radius
of influence and the associated
sea conditions and forecast
positions
Forecasters
Gale Warning
• provides information on
the expected surge of
strong winds associated
with monsoons or either
enhance by existence of
tropical cyclone.
Anatomy of Gale Warning
Statement of the system causing the gale force
wind
General statement on the seaboards that will be
affected by the gale force wind
Name of the seaboards and associated weather
Expected wind force, Sea Condition and Wave
Height
General advisory to fisherman and small sea crafts
and alert to larger sea vessel against big waves
Forecasters
•Warning Dissemination Flow
•Information
Packages
•Tropical
Cyclone
Advisories &
Warnings
•Office of the
President
•Office of the
Civil Defense
•Tri-Media
•Tropical Cyclone
Warnings for
Shipping and Gale
Warnings
•Aviation
Forecasts /
warnings
•End Users/
Beneficiaries
•Dissemination
Channel
•Regional Centers
•Local Government
•Disaster Response
Agencies
•General
Public
•Regional Centers
•PAGASA
Field Stations
•Local Government
•Coastguard
•Navigators
•Airline Pilots
•HOW IS THE WARNING BULLETIN DISSEMINATED ?
•RADIO STATION
•TV STATIONS
•AUTO & MANUAL FAX / PHONE
•VOICE SERVER
•DIAL-A-WEATHER +02 433 ULAN (433 8526)
•HOW IS THE WARNING BULLETIN DISSEMINATED ?
You can access PAGASA via the internet thru:
Facebook:
www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH
Twitter:
Website:
@dost_pagasa
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
•‘tracking the sky . . . helping the country!!!

Weather Forecast and Warning Products

Transcription

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