Policy Assessment Tool - MCDA - The Bartlett

Comments

Transcription

Policy Assessment Tool - MCDA - The Bartlett
Stakeholder-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis:
Introduction
5th June 2013, London
Evelina Trutnevyte (UCL Energy Institute)
Zaid Chalabi (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, The Bartlett
School of Graduate Studies at UCL)
The aims of the stakeholder-based MultiCriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
• System dynamics exercise will result in a simulation
model of policy options for the UK housing
• The aims of the stakeholder-based MCDA:
– Assess the policy options
– Combine the stakeholder priorities and the modeling
outcomes
– Acknowledge the existence of multiple criteria
Example
Assessing the energy policy options for a
Swiss region
Trutnevyte, E., Stauffacher, M., Scholz, R. W. (2011). Supporting energy initiatives in small communities by linking visions with energy scenarios and
multi-criteria assessment. Energy Policy, 39, 7884-7895.
Stakeholder ideas
and knowledge
Policy option 1
Policy option 2
Future
energy
system
Policy option 3
…
“Opening-up”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
Stakeholder ideas
and knowledge
Stakeholder ideas of
the relevant criteria
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 1
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 2
Future
energy
system
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 3
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
…
Criteria 2: Emissions
Criteria 3: Employment
“Opening-up”
…
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
Stakeholder ideas
and knowledge
Stakeholder ideas of
the relevant criteria
Stakeholder preferences
for the criteria weightings
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 1
Criteria 3: Employment
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 2
Future
energy
system
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 3
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1: Costs
Individual criteria weightings
…
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 1: Costs
…
Criteria 2: Emissions
Criteria 3: Employment
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
Stakeholder ideas
and knowledge
Stakeholder ideas of
the relevant criteria
Stakeholder preferences
for the criteria weightings
Criteria 1: Costs
Policy option 1
Criteria 3: Employment
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 2
Future
energy
system
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 3
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
…
Criteria 2: Emissions
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1: Costs
Individual criteria weightings
…
Aggregation into overall weighted performance
Criteria 2: Emissions
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 3: Employment
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
Stakeholder ideas
and knowledge
Stakeholder ideas of
the relevant criteria
Stakeholder preferences
for the criteria weightings
Criteria 1: Costs
Policy option 1
Criteria 3: Employment
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 2
Future
energy
system
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
Criteria 2: Emissions
Policy option 3
Criteria 3: Employment
…
Criteria 1: Costs
…
Criteria 2: Emissions
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1: Costs
Individual criteria weightings
…
Aggregation into overall weighted performance
Criteria 2: Emissions
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 3: Employment
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
Example: performance of each policy option
against each criterion
High
performance
Low
performance
Policy option 1
Policy option 2
Policy option 3
Example: Criteria weightings
Stakeholder 2
Stakeholder 1
GHG emissions
Group (joint)
Example: Overall weighted performance
Policy performance
Criteria weightings
Individual
stakeholder
Group result
Policy option 2
Policy option 3
Policy option 5
Policy option 1
Policy option 3
Policy option 5
Policy option 1
Policy option 2
Policy option 4
Policy option 4
Overall weighted
performance
In this project
Today: the shared list
of criteria
Final project workshop
System dynamics modelling
Criteria 1
Policy option 1
Criteria 3
Criteria 2
Policy option 2
Criteria 3
…
UK
housing
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Policy option 3
Criteria 3
…
Criteria 1
…
Criteria 2
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1
Individual criteria weightings
…
Aggregation into overall weighted performance
Criteria 2
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 3
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
Interactive MCDA workshop (planned for
early 2014)
Overall weighted performance
Weighting
s
Policy performance against each criterion
Stakeholder-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis:
Developing the shared list of criteria
5th June 2013, London
Evelina Trutnevyte (UCL Energy Institute)
Zaid Chalabi (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, The Bartlett
School of Graduate Studies at UCL)
In this project
Today: the shared list
of criteria
Final project workshop
System dynamics modelling
Criteria 1
Policy option 1
Criteria 3
Criteria 2
Policy option 2
Criteria 3
…
UK
housing
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Policy option 3
Criteria 3
…
Criteria 1
…
Criteria 2
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1
Individual criteria weightings
…
Aggregation into overall weighted performance
Criteria 2
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 3
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
In this project
Today: the shared list
of criteria
Final project workshop
Today
System dynamics modelling
Criteria 1
Policy option 1
Criteria 3
Criteria 2
Policy option 2
Criteria 3
…
UK
housing
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Policy option 3
Criteria 3
…
Criteria 1
…
Criteria 2
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1
Individual criteria weightings
…
Aggregation into overall weighted performance
Criteria 2
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 3
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
The aim and the method
• Derive a list of ≤10 core criteria for assessing the
policy options
– These criteria will be used in the interactive MCDA
workshop
– After this exercise the criteria weightings will not matter
• The card game
– Based on an adapted silent negotiation (Pictet and Bollinger, 2005)
The initial list of criteria
• The criteria come from the individual interviews
• We merged and refined the list into criteria that:
– Eliminate repetition and mutual dependence
– Enable distinction between policy options
– Balanced level of aggregation
• Suggested detailed descriptions
The initial list of criteria
• In total, there are 27 criteria that were at least
once mentioned as one’s 1st or 2nd priority in the
interviews
• Among these criteria, there are 9 criteria that were
often ranked high
• These 9 criteria form our suggested initial list
(≤10)
• This list shall be revised today
Please have a look at this initial list and mark
your personal 5 most important criteria
More
important
The initial list of 9 criteria
(pre-ranked)
The list of 18 other criteria
Less
important
…
…
More
important
• Please express your
individual priorities, while
building a shared list of
criteria
• It’s a silent negotiation!
Less
important
…
…
More
important
•Please draw a card with a
number
•Please make TWO moves,
when it is your turn
•There shall not be more than 4
cards in one row
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
3. No move
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
3. No move
4-cards rule: There shall not be
more than 4 cards in on line
(use 2 moves for interchanging)
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
3. No move
4-cards rule: There shall not be
more than 4 cards in on line
(use 2 moves for interchanging)
Less
important
…
…
More
important
The list of criteria?
• Please iterate the
process twice
• We will draw a line after
up to 10 criteria
• Vote
Less
important
…
…
More
important
What counts as ONE move:
1.Move one card one line up or
down in the core list (horizontal
move is not a move!)
2.Move one card from the
second list to the bottom of the
core list
3. No move
4-cards rule: There shall not be
more than 4 cards in on line
(use 2 moves for interchanging)
Less
important
…
…
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
1. Carbon emissions
from housing
2. Community
connection
3. Fuel poverty
4. Housing adaptation to
climate change
5. Housing affordability
6. Mental & emotional
wellbeing
7. Physical
wellbeing/health
8. Policy coherence
9. Social and income
equity
1. Carbon emissions
from housing
2. Community
connection
3. Fuel poverty
4. Green space and
neighbourhood
5. Housing affordability
6. Mental
7. Physical
wellbeing/health
8. Social and income
equity
1. Carbon emissions
from housing
2. Community
connection
3. Employment
4. Fuel poverty
5. Green spaces and
neighbourhood quality
6. Housing adaptation to
climate change
7. Housing affordability
8. Physical
wellbeing/health
Next steps
• This is the revised list of criteria for the interactive
MCDA
• Next steps:
– Your inputs for developing measurable indicators for
these criteria
– The policy performance will be assessed against these
criteria in the SD simulation modelling
– Interactive MCDA workshop in early 2014
In this project
Today: the shared list
of criteria
Final project workshop
System dynamics modelling
Criteria 1
Policy option 1
Criteria 3
Criteria 2
Policy option 2
Criteria 3
…
UK
housing
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Policy option 3
Criteria 3
…
Criteria 1
…
Criteria 2
Group criteria weightings
Criteria 1
Individual criteria weightings
…
Aggregation into overall weighted performance
Criteria 2
Strengths and
weaknesses of
the different
policy options
Criteria 3
“Opening-up”
…
“Closing-down”
“Opening-up” and “closing-down” terms are of Andy Stirling (2008)
THANK YOU!

Similar documents