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SunCentric Business Perspectives
A Progress Report on the Largest U.S. Solar Program
Will New Federal Certainty Accelerate the California Solar Initiative?
Glenn Harris, CEO
October 2008
A Heartfelt Foreword
Like everyone in the solar industry, on October 3, 2008 I celebrated the long awaited news that
we had achieved solar certainty. I am enormously thankful to everyone who worked with such
passion and persistence to get us here and am particularly grateful to Rhone Resch, our SEIA
Director who, after this historic victory, should be thought of as an immortal solar gladiator.
I have always viewed the Federal Investment Tax Credit as the base of a financial pyramid. Now
solidly in place, each of the 50 states can build solar programs that will benefit their citizens and
companies, expand employment and contribute to our energy independence.
For solar
businesses the work is just starting, but at last we can plan and invest with one major risk factor
removed. It’s time for us to get going and turn our potential into results. Let’s deliver the cost
reductions we talk about, deploy “billions and billions” of solar modules and create millions and
millions of jobs. To paraphrase Buzz Lightyear, ”to grid parity and beyond.” I look forward to
helping the industry achieve these objectives.
Federal Certainty - a CSI Stimulus Package?
1.75 years into the 10 year program about 90MW, or 3%, of the 3,000MW California Solar
Initiative (CSI) are completed. In today’s parlance, the U.S.’s largest solar program needs a
stimulus package. We wondered, “Will the 8 year, 30% Federal ITC accelerate the California
Solar Initiative?” The short answer – it depends.
Based on current CSI program averages, the new 30% uncapped federal residential tax credit
should add over $10,000 of incentive to a 4,500 watt system – great for a consumer that has
© SunCentric Inc.
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federal tax liability. This may give the Investor Owned Utility (IOU) residential program a much
needed boost, potentially ignite the Public Owned Utility (POU) program, give current residential
installation companies a chance to improve their bottom line and encourage new residential
market entrants.
The commercial segment is another matter. While the lack of Federal ITC certainty until October
3 caused some slowdown in sales, the rapid decline in CSI incentives along with the lack of
meaningful system cost reductions have combined to dramatically impact the program. While
the 8 year federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) keeps the existing 30% ITC in place, it does not
change the financial returns for CSI commercial system owners. We should see a spike in activity
near term as some pending contracts are signed now that there is no concern about completing
the project before the Federal ITC expires.
After that, it is an open question what market
expansion can occur given current economic and solar business conditions.
The New Solar Home Partnership (NSHP) started slowly and was further affected when the
housing downturn hit California. The ITC extension will encourage more developers and builders
to incorporate solar into their business plan, but near term no uptick is likely until economic
conditions improve.
In light of the ITC extension, and the results of the CSI, we think some things will have to
change. As we’ll show in this paper using a simple set of charts, graphs and tables, we think
you’ll agree the program is off course. The solution to getting back on course will involve the
combined efforts of the state agencies and the solar industry.
Remember, California’s former solar programs, the California Energy Commission’s (CEC)
Emerging Renewables Program and the California Public Utility Commission’s (CPUC) Self
Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) are over. They may continue to contribute some completed
MWs into 2009, but new projects now go to the three programs created by Senate Bill 1 (SB1);
the CPUC’s CSI, the CEC’s NSHP and the Publically Owned Utilities (POU).
Senate Bill 1 established three goals for the State:
1. Install 3,000 megawatts (MW) of distributed solar PV capacity in California by the end of
2016
2. Establish a self-sufficient solar industry in which solar energy systems are a viable
mainstream option in 10 years
3. Place solar energy systems on 50 percent of new homes in 13 years
© SunCentric Inc.
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We study many elements of the State’s solar programs, but we wanted to measure the results by
answering a simple question. Now that we are nearly two years into the 10 year program, how
are we doing in connecting 3,000MW to the grid and creating a self-sufficient solar industry? As
shown in Table 1, after 1.75 years of a 10 year program only about 90MW have been connected
to the grid, a little more than 3 percent of the programs goals.
Table 1 - CSI MW Objectives and Results by Program Component
CSI Program Component
CEC New Solar Home Partnership inc. Affordable Housing
Publically Owned Utilities (POU)
CPUC Low Income Residential
CPUC Investor Owned Utilities (IOU) Step 1 thru 10
Total
MW
Objective by
Dec 31, 2016
360
700
190
1,750
3,000
Actual MW
Connected
Sep 30, 2008
< 0.2
Not Reported
Not Started
89.6
~ 89.8
Results of the New Solar Home Partnership Program
The California Energy Commission’s New Solar Figure 1 – NSHP MW as of October 10, 2008
Home Partnership has been roundly criticized for its
www.newsolarhomes.org/Rebatelevels.aspx
overly complex participation requirements and has
received a critical reception from many developers,
builders and solar integrators. The downturn in the
new home construction industry has been a bad
break that made the situation much worse. Figure 1
shows that as of October 10, 2008 there are 9.2MW
of
approved
applications
and
1.1MW
of
applications currently under review. In mid July the
CEC reported that 23 systems had been completed
- we estimate less than 40kW. It is likely that today
this number is larger, but we doubt it is greater
Figure 2 – NSHP Applications as of July 25, 2008
www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/news/statistics/index.html
than 200kW. Figure 2, shows that nearly 5,000
systems are now being tracked in the program and
that there is participation across the housing
construction segments and affordable housing. As
a reference, NSHP systems are likely to average less
than 1,500 watts, so to reach 360MW, on the order
of 250,000 systems will need to be completed.
© SunCentric Inc.
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Results of the Publically Owned Utilities Program
SB1 tasks the Publically Owned Utilities (POU) throughout California with connecting 700MW to
the grid by year end 2016. As a group they are positive about solar, but are dealing with the
fact that their generally low kWh prices force very high incentives to deliver reasonable paybacks
to their customers. In an interesting legislative twist, the POU’s are required to offer a solar
program, but it does not have to be a successful solar program. SMUD, LADWP, Riverside,
Pasadena, and many of the small POUs are carrying the ball for the POU program. The CEC has
yet to publish the combined results of the program, but our research leads us to believe that
just a few MW have been connected to the grid by the POUs since January 1, 2007.
Results of the Low Income Program
The low income programs for multifamily and single family have not started yet.
Results of the CPUC’s Investor Owned Utility Program
The remainder of this paper focuses on the CPUC’s Investor Owned Utility (IOU) part of the CSI.
With about 90MW connected to the grid it is the only part of the CSI with meaningful activity.
Table 2 and 3 show the results by Step and by customer segment.
Table 2 – CPUC’s CSI IOU Results by Program Component
CPUC Investor Owned Utilities - Step 1
CPUC Investor Owned Utilities - Step 2 to 10
Total
MW
Budget
50
1,700
1,750
Actual MW
Completed
Sept 30, 2008
12.8
76.8
89.6
Results combined from:
Self Gen Data from SGIP_Statewide_Data_3Q08.xls; CSI Data from ProgramData20081001.xls
Table 3 – CPUC’s CSI IOU Results by Customer Segment
Residential
Non-Residential
Total
MW
Budget
577.5
1,172.5
1,750.0
Actual MW
Connected
Sept 30, 2008
36.2
53.4
89.6
%
Completed
6.2%
4.6%
5.1%
Results combined from
Self Gen Data from SGIP_Statewide_Data_3Q08.xls; CSI Data from ProgramData20081001.xls
© SunCentric Inc.
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There has been much discussion about the performance of the IOU program. Those charged
with keeping the program’s results, the utility program administrators (PA) from PGE, SCE and
CCSE and the staff at the CPUC are enthusiastic and want to report results in ways that make the
program appear to be a growing success. However, measuring applications received,
applications in process, etc. shows interest solar but does not show the realities of total installed
systems. Likewise, a measure like utility interconnection requests does not always indicate a
system is completed, and may include projects from former solar programs.
A further concern is a pending request by the PAs to allow CSI applicants to relocate projects
from one site to another. This will benefit those companies that have made arrangements with
franchise or big box businesses that own more than one site. Actions like this that attempt to
rescue projects, seem to favor a few large companies and in our view signal the declining health
of the program.
A Comment about the Data
The program administrators and the CPUC publish a subset of their CSI non-public database on
a fairly routine basis. Here is the link, on the PowerClerk site, and the October 1, 2008 data that
we used for much of this report: https://csi.powerclerk.com/CSIProgramData.aspx
There has been some improvement in the bookkeeping since January 1, 2007; however the data
is still riddled with errors and omissions. We can easily identify millions of dollars of errors and
millions of watts of errors. With the resources given the PAs, we are at a loss to understand why
the CPUC allows this to continue. We are concerned about what and how the PAs and CPUC
report and their reluctance to make a more complete version of their non-public database
public. To us it appears that this reluctance stems from their knowledge of the inaccuracies of
their work and possibly a desire to protect some entities interests. In sum, these behaviors and
the resulting lack of transparency are concerning. How are the industry and the legislators to
measure the results of the program without proper bookkeeping? The program audit scheduled
for 2009 will be a good catalyst to get the books in order.
Step 1 Results
We consider Step 1 of the CSI a mini program that reserved 50MW of projects before the official
start of the CSI on January 1, 2007. Figure 3, from the Trigger Tracker, shows that 50MW of
Conditional Reservations were issued from March to July 2006.
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Figure 3 - Step 1 Conditional Reservations www.csi-trigger.com/details.aspx?Administrator=PGE
We have been curious about the status of these projects. Over the past few days a data file was
released that shows a combination of the activity for SGIP and CSI projects during this time
period. http://www.sdenergy.org/ContentPage.asp?ContentID=279&SectionID=276&SectionTarget=35 takes you
to the file. All of the solar projects appear to be commercial projects and the file does not
include any solar projects that were cancelled or withdrawn. We have extracted the data that
relates to the CSI. Table 4 and 5 include summarize the activity.
Table 4 - Status of All CSI Projects in the SGIP data set
Status
Projects
Advancement
29
Completed
136
Pending Payment
39
Reserved
16
Grand Total
220
Total Eligible
Costs
$95,522,302
$209,032,817
$70,611,212
$42,387,493
$417,553,824
Incentive
Amount
($)
$29,912,744
$65,253,015
$23,474,528
$12,566,800
$131,207,086
System
Capacity
(kW)
12,985
25,036
9,063
5,036
52,121
Table 5 - All Projects by Step in the SGIP data set
Status
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Grand Total
Projects
85
117
17
1
220
Total Eligible
Costs
$149,007,704
$232,638,716
$35,074,704
$832,700
$417,553,824
Incentive
Amount
($)
$47,964,996
$69,958,284
$13,095,423
$188,383
$131,207,086
System
Capacity
(kW)
17,211
28,898
5,912
99
52,121
© SunCentric Inc.
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We have some questions about the data in this file. In Table 5 we saw that only 17.2MW
appeared in Step 1 when we expected nearly 50MW. When we asked the CPUC we learned that
the remaining 32.8MW of projects had been withdrawn. We suspect that many of these projects
were withdrawn and resubmitted to the CSI Performance Based Incentive (PBI) program as the
original Step 2, $.39/kWh incentive frequently created a more beneficial financial return than the
$2.80/Watt SGIP inventive.
Table 6 - Completed CSI Projects by Step in the SGIP data set
Step
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Grand Total
Projects
66
61
8
1
136
Total Eligible
Costs
$111,646,926
$79,675,547
$16,877,644
$832,700
$209,032,817
Incentive
Amount
($)
$35,738,295
$25,048,693
$4,277,644
$188,383
$65,253,015
System
Capacity
(kW)
12,832
10,168
1,937
99
25,036
Table 6 show that as of the end of September 2008, 25MW of completed projects booked into
the SGIP data set belong to the CSI program. Combining the above SGIP data and the CSI data
that follows in the remainder of the report, we arrive at the following summary by program Step.
Table 7 - CSI MW Target and Completed CEC PTC MW
by Step through September 30, 2008
Step
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Total
CSI MW
Target
50
70
100
130
160
510
SGIP
Data
12.83
10.17
1.94
0.10
0.00
25.04
CSI Data
0.00
57.93
4.40
2.20
0.05
64.57
Total
12.83
68.10
6.33
2.30
0.05
89.61
Results combined from:
Self Gen Data from SGIP_Statewide_Data_3Q08.xls
CSI Data from ProgramData20081001.xls
In Conclusion
The remainder of this paper is made up of about 30 tables, charts and graphs that we feel show
the progress and the trends of the program from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2008.
Again our goal is to present the data in ways that allow you to measure the program’s progress
© SunCentric Inc.
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for yourself. We also hope that this information will lead to a broad discussion about what
actions can be taken to improve the program.
The information is divided into the following sections:
Part 1, Page 9 to 13 – Results for the CPUC CSI Program from January 1, 2007 through
September 30, 2008
Part 2, Page 14 to 17 – Results for the Residential Program from January 1, 2007 through
September 30, 2008
Part 3, Page 22 to 26 – Results for the Non-Residential Program from January 1, 2007 through
September 30, 2008
Part 4, Page 32 to 38 – Other Observations
Important Note: Unless specifically noted, the following tables, charts and graphs were
generated from ProgramData20081001.xls
Before the end October, SunCentric will host a webinar to discuss in more detail these results.
Check our website at www.suncentricinc.com for details or email us at [email protected]
to received scheduling information.
____________________________
Glenn Harris, CEO of SunCentric and is a solar industry veteran. SunCentric advises an
international client base of current industry participants and others considering the solar
industry. SunCentric offers a focused group of services that include:
•
U.S. market entry issues, information and guidance
•
Business development, planning and implementation
•
Financial modeling and real world evaluations
•
Product selection, qualification and procurement
•
Key contact introduction
•
Government programs and their commercial impacts
© SunCentric Inc.
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Part 1 – Results for the Entire CPUC CSI Program from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2008
Results for the CPUC CSI Program from January 1, 2007, to September 30, 2008
From ProgramData20081001.xls
Summary of Raw Data
Project
Count
Total Cost
$ Mil
Incentive
Amount
$ Mil
CEC PTC
Rating
MW
CSI
Rating
MW
% of
CEC PTC
MW
Completed
PBI - In Payment
8,094
155
$375.4
$194.9
$88.8
$73.8
46.7
29.0
40.0
24.6
38.0
25.8
11.6%
7.1%
Total of Done
8,249
$570.4
$162.6
75.7
64.6
63.8
18.7%
Cancelled
Withdrawn
492
116
$328.3
$122.2
$133.7
$43.0
65.0
21.3
56.6
18.5
53.2
17.6
16.4%
5.4%
Total of Won't Get Done
608
$450.6
$176.7
86.3
75.1
70.8
21.8%
Confirmed Reservation
Incentive Claim Request Review
Online Incentive Claim Request Submitted
Online Proof of Project Milestones Submitted
Pending Payment
Pending RFP
Proof of Project Milestones Review
Reservation Request Review
Reservation Reserved
RFP Review (Gov't/Non-Profit only)
Suspended - Incentive Claim Request Review
Suspended - Milestone Review
Suspended - Reservation Review
Suspended - RFP Review
4,133
374
321
2
626
9
18
443
107
1
341
22
304
2
$574.3
$93.5
$14.0
$0.1
$89.8
$25.7
$14.1
$35.3
$169.4
$0.5
$167.9
$111.3
$40.2
$2.3
$257.0
$39.0
$3.0
$0.3
$29.1
$10.1
$9.2
$12.3
$65.3
$0.1
$60.3
$58.0
$12.4
$0.8
115.3
12.7
1.8
0.2
11.6
5.0
4.3
7.4
32.2
0.0
25.3
16.5
7.5
0.3
98.5
10.9
1.5
0.2
10.0
4.3
3.7
6.3
27.5
0.0
21.8
14.0
6.4
0.3
96.0
10.7
1.5
0.2
10.6
4.2
3.6
6.1
26.7
0.0
22.2
14.0
6.1
0.3
28.5%
3.2%
0.4%
0.0%
2.9%
1.2%
1.1%
1.8%
8.0%
0.0%
6.3%
4.1%
1.9%
0.1%
Total of In Process
6,703
$1,338.5
$557.0
240.2
205.4
202.3
59.5%
15,560
$2,359.4
$896.3
402.2
345.1
336.8
100.0%
Current Incentive Application Status
Nameplate
Rating
MW
Calc'ed
Done
Won't Get Done
In Process
Grand Total
Status of CSI Projects as of September 30, 2008
400
345MW
375
350
325
279MW
300
CEC PTC MW
275
250
205
225
200
177
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
75
66MW
73
28
2
36
65
28
0
Residential
Non-Residential
Done
Won't Get Done
Total
In Process
© SunCentric Inc.
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Cumulative Activity of CSI Projects - January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2008
400
Linear trendline to reach 1,750MW of completed projects by YE 2016
350
CEC PTC MW
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
In Process
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Done
Won't Get Done
Cumulative Activity of CSI Projects - January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2008
400
345MW
350
CEC PTC MW
300
250
205MW
200
150
100
75MW
50
66MW
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Done
Mar-08
Feb-08
In Process
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
All Program Requests
Won't Get Done
© SunCentric Inc.
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CEC PTC MW of Confirmed Reservations by Month
Residential and Non-Residential
25
CEC PTC MW
20
15
19
20
12
10
9
9
3
Sep-08
Dec-08
5
Nov-08
4
Oct-08
4
Aug-08
3
Jul-08
3
Mar-08
Residential
5
3
Feb-08
Nov-07
Jul-07
3
Jun-08
5
5
Oct-07
Jun-07
3
Sep-07
2
Aug-07
2
Jan-08
5
2
Dec-07
1
May-07
Apr-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Mar-07
0
1
2
3
4
4
1
1
7
May-08
5
6
7
Apr-08
5
3
10
12
13
12
Non-Residential
Cumulative CEC PTC MW of Confirmed Reservations
Residential and Non-Residential
350
300
CEC PTC MW
250
200
150
100
50
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Residential
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
All Projects
Non-Residential
© SunCentric Inc.
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CEC PTC MW Completed by Utility for each Host Customer Type
50
Target
Completed
% so far
45
40
764.8MW
35.7MW
4.7%
805.0MW
24.3MW
3.0%
180.3MW
4.6MW
2.6%
CEC PTC MW
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
PGE
SCE
CCSE
Residential
25.0
8.2
3.1
Non-Profit
1.4
0.1
0.2
Government
0.2
1.2
0.1
Commercial
9.1
14.8
1.2
MW Complete
35.7
24.3
4.6
All Completed CEC PTC MW by Utility vs Linear Forecast to Reach CSI Target
180
PGE Linear trendline to reach 764.8MW of completed projects by YE 2016
160
SCE Linear trendline to reach 805.0MW of completed projects by YE 2016
CCSE Linear trendline to reach 180.3MW of completed projects by YE 2016
140
CEC PTC MW
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
SCE
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
PGE
CCSE
© SunCentric Inc.
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CEC PTC
MW
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Cancelled and Withdrawn
© SunCentric Inc.
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8,717
6,843
15,560
$1,936.3
$423.1
$2,359.4
$783.5
$112.9
$896.3
294.5
50.6
345.1
85.3%
14.7%
100.0%
3,868
2,835
6,703
$1,145.2
$193.3
$1,338.5
$502.7
$54.3
$557.0
180.2
25.1
205.4
87.8%
12.2%
100.0%
4,449
3,800
8,249
$115.1
$47.5
$162.6
44.1
20.5
64.6
69.1%
30.9%
100.0%
400
208
608
$410.3
$40.3
$450.6
$165.7
$11.0
$176.7
70.2
4.9
75.1
93.4%
6.6%
100.0%
$380.8
$189.6
$570.4
Completed and In Payment
Total of the First 50
All Others - 51 to 810
Grand Total
Now In Process
Proj Total Cost Incentive CEC PTC % of CEC Proj Total Cost Incentive CEC PTC % of CEC Proj
Installer / Seller Company Name
Count
$ Mil
$ Mil
MW PTC MW Count
$ Mil
$ Mil
MW PTC MW Count
SunPower Corporation, Systems
112
$371.6
$158.8
54.1
15.7%
55
$223.8
$107.5
32.9
16.0%
1
SunEdison, LLC
103
$247.3
$96.8
32.4
9.4%
43
$113.9
$42.7
15.2
7.4%
36
None Listed
116
$95.5
$42.3
18.7
5.4%
42
$39.7
$16.7
6.7
3.3%
13
SPG Solar, Inc.
465
$152.5
$51.7
18.7
5.4%
205
$124.5
$43.4
15.5
7.5%
243
Chevron Energy Solutions Company
54
$56.9
$41.8
17.7
5.1%
43
$47.0
$29.2
12.6
6.1%
0
SolarCity
1,831
$99.5
$27.9
12.6
3.6% 1,000
$53.8
$16.2
7.5
3.7%
809
REC Solar, Inc.
1,252
$88.5
$29.4
12.3
3.6%
462
$50.7
$19.9
8.0
3.9%
778
Team-Solar, Inc.
36
$67.7
$31.7
10.8
3.1%
23
$37.9
$19.8
6.9
3.4%
11
Borrego Solar Systems Inc.
537
$84.9
$23.4
8.8
2.5%
184
$66.7
$18.6
6.7
3.3%
348
El Solutions, Inc.
22
$50.6
$17.5
8.3
2.4%
9
$40.9
$10.5
4.5
2.2%
0
Akeena Solar, Inc.
935
$37.6
$12.9
6.4
1.8%
515
$17.4
$6.8
3.5
1.7%
406
BP Solar International, Inc.
14
$45.3
$17.9
6.1
1.8%
8
$27.9
$11.1
3.9
1.9%
5
SunTechnics Energy Systems, Inc.
46
$39.6
$14.9
5.9
1.7%
14
$29.9
$12.3
4.7
2.3%
29
Pacific Power Management, LLC
10
$25.8
$10.3
4.9
1.4%
4
$0.2
$1.6
1.9
0.9%
1
Solar Power, Inc.
74
$21.7
$9.8
4.7
1.4%
22
$6.0
$5.4
2.6
1.3%
42
Marin Solar, Inc.
232
$35.0
$13.3
4.7
1.3%
98
$27.8
$11.5
3.9
1.9%
132
WorldWater & Power Corp.
14
$30.9
$23.0
4.3
1.3%
7
$29.5
$22.6
4.2
2.0%
6
Permacity Construction Corp
31
$26.1
$7.8
3.9
1.1%
14
$7.9
$2.2
1.1
0.5%
16
Erickson Construction Co.
8
$29.5
$7.1
3.5
1.0%
4
$22.0
$4.9
2.5
1.2%
4
Regenesis Power LLC
5
$22.9
$9.0
3.4
1.0%
1
$4.0
$1.8
0.7
0.3%
0
Premier Power Renewable Energy Inc.
184
$15.8
$6.7
3.1
0.9%
89
$11.1
$5.6
2.7
1.3%
95
TBD - Pending RFP
6
$0.0
$8.7
3.0
0.9%
6
$0.0
$8.7
3.0
1.5%
0
Sunlight Electric
29
$14.7
$5.4
2.7
0.8%
12
$7.6
$3.6
1.9
0.9%
12
REgrid Power, Inc.
408
$18.9
$5.0
2.7
0.8%
152
$6.6
$2.0
1.3
0.6%
246
Renewable Technologies, Inc.
19
$11.1
$5.5
2.6
0.8%
7
$0.6
$2.9
1.4
0.7%
7
Unlimited Energy, Inc.
131
$18.3
$7.7
2.5
0.7%
44
$14.7
$6.6
2.0
1.0%
77
Bleyco Inc
7
$16.4
$5.1
2.4
0.7%
6
$15.8
$4.9
2.4
1.1%
1
MBL and Sons, Inc
11
$1.4
$4.6
2.3
0.7%
11
$1.4
$4.6
2.3
1.1%
0
Acro Electric, Inc.
254
$13.1
$4.4
2.2
0.6%
132
$5.8
$2.1
1.1
0.5%
105
AMG Energy, Inc.
2
$7.6
$4.2
2.0
0.6%
1
$7.6
$2.1
1.0
0.5%
0
3rd Rock Systems & Technologies, Inc.
7
$7.1
$4.1
1.9
0.6%
1
$0.0
$0.5
0.2
0.1%
0
Clean Power Systems, Inc.
123
$18.6
$6.0
1.9
0.5%
115
$17.8
$5.8
1.8
0.9%
0
Sun Light and Power
173
$15.0
$3.9
1.9
0.5%
80
$9.5
$2.6
1.3
0.6%
90
MMA Renewable Ventures
2
$13.9
$3.5
1.8
0.5%
2
$13.9
$3.5
1.8
0.9%
0
GBS Industries
52
$6.7
$3.3
1.7
0.5%
16
$0.7
$2.2
1.1
0.6%
31
Advanced Solar Electric, Inc
264
$15.2
$3.8
1.6
0.5%
91
$5.4
$1.4
0.6
0.3%
151
Independent Energy Systems, Inc.
160
$12.8
$3.1
1.5
0.4%
43
$2.5
$0.8
0.4
0.2%
114
Independent Energy Solutions
28
$9.2
$3.7
1.3
0.4%
18
$6.7
$2.8
0.9
0.5%
7
SolarCraft Services, Inc.
108
$8.3
$2.5
1.3
0.4%
37
$1.4
$0.8
0.4
0.2%
70
Stellar Energy Solutions Inc.
6
$3.4
$2.4
1.2
0.4%
1
$1.4
$0.4
0.2
0.1%
1
Southern Ca. Solar dba Solar Elec. Sys.
131
$11.7
$2.9
1.2
0.4%
43
$4.9
$1.1
0.5
0.2%
84
Chico Electric
8
$0.1
$20.1
1.2
0.3%
6
$0.0
$20.1
1.2
0.6%
2
GenSelf Corporation
111
$9.8
$2.8
1.1
0.3%
20
$3.6
$1.2
0.4
0.2%
82
Heliopower, Inc.
156
$10.1
$2.5
1.1
0.3%
34
$2.5
$0.6
0.3
0.1%
111
Mohr Power Solar, Inc.
234
$11.4
$2.6
1.1
0.3%
80
$3.7
$0.8
0.4
0.2%
147
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
1
$10.0
$2.1
1.0
0.3%
1
$10.0
$2.1
1.0
0.5%
0
NextEnergy Corp.
196
$10.1
$2.0
1.0
0.3%
59
$2.2
$0.6
0.4
0.2%
136
EI Solutions
1
$0.0
$3.2
1.0
0.3%
1
$0.0
$3.2
1.0
0.5%
0
Strong Electric & Solar
7
$7.8
$2.2
1.0
0.3%
6
$7.8
$2.1
1.0
0.5%
0
Offset Electric
1
$8.6
$2.3
1.0
0.3%
1
$8.6
$2.3
1.0
0.5%
0
All Projects
Total
Cost
Incentive CEC PTC % of CEC Proj Total Cost Incentive CEC PTC % of CEC
$ Mil
$ Mil
MW PTC MW Count
$ Mil
$ Mil
MW PTC MW
$2.6
$1.0
0.3
0.5%
56
$145.2
$50.2
20.8
27.7%
$83.8
$34.8
10.2
18.1%
24
$49.6
$19.3
7.0
9.3%
$3.7
$1.1
0.5
0.8%
61
$52.1
$24.5
11.5
15.3%
$14.2
$3.9
1.6
2.4%
17
$13.8
$4.4
1.6
2.2%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
11
$10.0
$12.6
5.1
6.8%
$31.2
$7.3
3.4
4.9%
22
$14.5
$4.4
1.6
2.1%
$34.5
$8.5
3.9
5.7%
12
$3.3
$1.1
0.4
0.5%
$28.6
$11.3
3.7
5.9%
2
$1.2
$0.5
0.2
0.2%
$15.1
$3.7
1.7
2.4%
5
$3.1
$1.1
0.4
0.5%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
13
$9.6
$6.9
3.8
5.0%
$19.6
$4.4
2.0
3.0%
14
$0.7
$1.7
0.8
1.1%
$14.0
$5.5
1.8
3.0%
1
$3.3
$1.2
0.4
0.5%
$9.5
$2.6
1.2
1.8%
3
$0.2
$0.1
0.0
0.0%
$0.2
$0.1
0.0
0.0%
5
$25.3
$8.6
3.0
4.0%
$5.1
$1.4
0.7
1.0%
10
$10.6
$3.0
1.5
2.0%
$7.2
$1.7
0.8
1.2%
2
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.2
$0.1
0.0
0.0%
1
$1.2
$0.4
0.1
0.2%
$14.7
$4.6
2.0
3.2%
1
$3.6
$1.0
0.8
1.1%
$7.4
$2.2
1.0
1.5%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
4
$18.9
$7.2
2.7
3.6%
$4.7
$1.0
0.5
0.7%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$4.1
$1.1
0.5
0.7%
5
$3.0
$0.7
0.4
0.5%
$11.5
$2.5
1.1
1.7%
10
$0.8
$0.6
0.3
0.4%
$1.2
$0.3
0.1
0.2%
5
$9.2
$2.3
1.1
1.4%
$3.4
$1.0
0.5
0.7%
10
$0.2
$0.1
0.1
0.1%
$0.6
$0.1
0.1
0.1%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$6.7
$1.7
0.7
1.1%
17
$0.6
$0.6
0.4
0.5%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
1
$0.0
$2.0
1.0
1.3%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
6
$7.1
$3.6
1.7
2.3%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
8
$0.8
$0.2
0.1
0.1%
$4.5
$1.1
0.5
0.7%
3
$1.0
$0.3
0.1
0.1%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$2.2
$0.3
0.2
0.2%
5
$3.8
$0.8
0.4
0.6%
$7.1
$1.7
0.7
1.1%
22
$2.6
$0.6
0.3
0.4%
$6.2
$1.3
0.6
0.9%
3
$4.1
$1.0
0.5
0.6%
$1.6
$0.5
0.2
0.3%
3
$0.8
$0.4
0.1
0.2%
$2.9
$0.7
0.3
0.5%
1
$4.1
$1.0
0.5
0.7%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
4
$2.0
$2.0
1.1
1.4%
$4.5
$1.1
0.5
0.7%
4
$2.2
$0.7
0.2
0.3%
$0.1
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$5.7
$1.5
0.6
1.0%
9
$0.5
$0.1
0.1
0.1%
$6.6
$1.7
0.7
1.1%
11
$1.0
$0.2
0.1
0.1%
$7.4
$1.7
0.7
1.1%
7
$0.4
$0.1
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$7.9
$1.3
0.6
0.9%
1
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
1
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0%
Results by Installer / Seller from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2008
Part 2 - Results for the Residential Program from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2008
Results for the CPUC CSI Residential Program from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2008
Summary of Raw Data
Incentive Nameplate
Amount
Rating
$ Mil
MW
CEC PTC
Rating
MW
CSI
Rating
MW
Calc'ed
% of
CEC PTC
MW
Project
Count
Total Cost
$ Mil
Completed
PBI - In Payment
7,849
73
$337.3
$4.0
$79.8
$1.4
41.8
0.5
35.8
0.4
33.9
0.4
54.2%
0.6%
Total of Done
7,922
$341.3
$81.2
42.3
36.2
34.4
54.9%
Cancelled
Withdrawn
285
38
$10.3
$2.1
$3.5
$0.7
1.7
0.3
1.5
0.3
1.4
0.3
2.3%
0.4%
323
$12.4
$4.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
2.7%
Pending Payment
3,680
320
285
571
395
260
248
$145.5
$12.6
$11.8
$25.5
$12.8
$11.5
$10.2
$37.0
$3.2
$2.5
$6.0
$3.4
$3.1
$2.6
21.1
1.7
1.5
3.1
2.1
1.5
1.5
18.1
1.5
1.3
2.7
1.8
1.3
1.3
17.3
1.4
1.2
2.6
1.7
1.3
1.3
27.4%
2.3%
2.0%
4.1%
2.7%
2.0%
2.0%
Total of In Process
5,759
$229.9
$58.0
32.7
28.0
26.8
42.4%
14,004
$583.5
$143.4
77.0
66.0
62.8
100.0%
Done
Won't Get Done
In Process
Grand Total
Residential Projects Completed by Month
900
800
Completed Projects
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
EPBB Projects
PBI Projects
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 14
Cumulative Status of Residential Projects - Jan 1, 2007 to Sep 30, 2008
120
Linear trendline to reach 577.5MW of completed projects by YE 2016
110
100
90
CEC PTC MW
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
In Process
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Done
Won't Get Done
Cumulative Status of Residential Projects - Jan 1, 2007 to Sep 30, 2008
120
Linear trendline to reach 577.5MW of completed projects by YE 2016
110
100
90
CEC PTC MW
80
70
65.5MW
60
50
36.2MW
40
30
20
27.5MW
10
1.8MW
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Done
Mar-08
Feb-08
In Process
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Won't Get Done
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 15
Completed Residential EPBB Project Price Averages
Installed Price, Consumer Price after CSI Incentive and Incentive per CEC PTC Watt
$11
(Includes SunCentric's correction to the CSI database)
$10
$ per CEC PTC Watt
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
Dec-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
Consumer Price after CSI Incentive
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Installed Price
CSI Incentive
Average Residential System Size in CEC PTC Watts
5,000
4,750
CEC PTC Watts
4,500
4,250
4,000
3,750
3,500
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 16
Cost Changes to the California Residential Consumer
Program
Time Period
California Program Incentive
Federal Incentive
Residential Install Size in CEC PTC Watts
Average Installed CEC PTC $/Watt
Incentive $/Watt
Installed Cost
California Program Incentive
Installed Cost after CA Incentive
Installed $/W after CA Incentive
Federal Incentive this System
Installed Cost after CA and Fed Incentives
Installed $/W after CA & Fed Incentives
Simple payback in YEARS if the average $/kW
starts at $.20 and escalates at 3% per year
CEC ERP
(Now Over)
Jan thru Jun
2006
$2.80/Watt
CSI EPBB
Step 4
October 2008
Snapshot
$1.90/Watt
Capped at
$2,000
4,500
$9.10
Capped at
$2,000
4,500
$9.22
$2.80
$40,950
$12,600
$28,350
$6.30
$1.90
$41,490
$8,550
$32,940
$7.32
$1.90
$41,490
$8,550
$32,940
$7.32
$2,000
$2,000
$12,447
$26,350
$5.86
$30,940
$6.88
$20,493
$4.55
14
CSI EPBB
Step 4
2009
Projection
$1.90/Watt
Uncapped
30% of
System Cost
4,500
*
$9.22
16
11
* 3 month average July through September 2008. Includes SunCentric's CSI data corrections
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 17
Part 3 – Results for the Non-Residential Program from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2008
Results for the CPUC CSI Non-Residential Program from January 1, 2007 to September 2008
Summary of Raw Data
Incentive Nameplate
Amount
Rating
$ Mil
MW
CEC PTC
Rating
MW
CSI
Rating
MW
Calc'ed
% of
CEC PTC
MW
Project
Count
Total Cost
$ Mil
Completed
PBI - In Payment
245
82
$38.2
$190.9
$9.1
$72.3
5.0
28.5
4.2
24.1
4.1
25.3
1.5%
8.6%
Total of Done
327
$229.1
$81.4
33.4
28.4
29.4
10.2%
Cancelled
Withdrawn
206
78
$318.1
$120.1
$130.2
$42.3
63.3
20.9
55.1
18.2
51.8
17.3
19.8%
6.5%
284
$438.2
$172.5
84.3
73.3
69.1
26.3%
Online Proof of Project Milestones Submitted
Pending Payment
Pending RFP
Proof of Project Milestones Review
Reservation Reserved
RFP Review (Gov't/Non-Profit only)
Suspended - Milestone Review
Suspended - RFP Review
453
54
36
2
55
9
18
48
107
1
81
22
56
2
$428.9
$80.8
$2.2
$0.1
$64.3
$25.7
$14.1
$22.5
$169.4
$0.5
$156.4
$111.3
$30.0
$2.3
$220.0
$35.8
$0.5
$0.3
$23.1
$10.1
$9.2
$8.9
$65.3
$0.1
$57.2
$58.0
$9.7
$0.8
94.2
11.0
0.3
0.2
8.5
5.0
4.3
5.3
32.2
0.0
23.7
16.5
6.0
0.3
80.4
9.4
0.2
0.2
7.3
4.3
3.7
4.5
27.5
0.0
20.5
14.0
5.1
0.3
78.7
9.3
0.2
0.2
8.0
4.2
3.6
4.3
26.7
0.0
21.0
14.0
4.9
0.3
28.8%
3.4%
0.1%
0.1%
2.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.6%
9.9%
0.0%
7.3%
5.0%
1.8%
0.1%
Total of In Process
944
$1,108.6
$499.0
207.5
177.4
175.5
63.6%
1,555
$1,775.9
$752.9
325.2
279.1
274.0
100.0%
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 18
Done
Won't Get Done
In Process
Grand Total
Cumulative Activity of Non-Residential Projects - January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2008
300
Linear trendline to reach 1,172.5MW of completed projects by YE 2016
270
240
CEC PTC MW
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
In Process
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Done
Won't Get Done
Cumulative Activity of Non-Residential Projects - January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2008
300
279MW
Linear trendline to reach 1,172.5MW of completed projects by YE 2016
270
240
CEC PTC MW
210
180
174MW
150
120
90
73MW
60
30
28MW
0
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Done
Mar-08
Feb-08
In Process
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Won't Get Done
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 19
Non-Residential Projects Completed by Month
60
Completed Projects
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
EPBB Projects
PBI Projects
Non-Residential CEC PTC MW Completed by Month
18
16
14
CEC PTC MW
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
EPBB Projects
PBI Projects
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 20
Completed Non-Residential EPBB Project Price Averages
Installed Price, Owner Price after CSI Incentive and Incentive per CEC PTC Watt
$16
$15
$14
$13
$ per CEC PTC Watt
$12
$11
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
Dec-08
Dec-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
Owner Price after CSI Incentive
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Installed Price
CSI Incentive
Completed Non-Residential PBI Project Price Averages
Installed Price, Owner Price after CSI Incentive and Incentive per CEC PTC Watt
$10
$9
$ per CEC PTC Watt
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Owner Price after CSI Incentive
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Installed Price
CSI Incentive
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 21
Part 4 – Other Observations
This graph shows data from file ProgramData20081001 in an XY scatter chart. If you look along the X
axis you will see a large number of projects that have $0 projects cost. This is one example of the data
integrity issues we find with this file.
All Projects by Size in CEC PTC kW and Project Cost in $ Millions
$14
y = 6200.6x + 14093
R² = 0.7565
Total Project Price in $ Millions
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
Project Size in CEC PTC kW
Projects
Linear ( Projects)
This graph shows just completed project data from file ProgramData20081001 in an XY scatter chart.
The completed data is better kept however there are still errors which can create misleading answers.
All Completed Projects by Size in CEC PTC kW and Project Cost in $ Millions
$10
y = 7657.2x + 9204.5
R² = 0.9686
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Projects
Linear ( Projects)
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 22
Part 3
4 – Other
ResultsObservations
for the Non-Residential Program from January 1, 2007 through September 30, 2008
This graph shows SunCentric’s adjustments to completed project data from file ProgramData20081001
in an XY scatter chart. We removed significant outliers to improve the accuracy of the results.
Completed Projects with Some SunCentric Deletions and Corrections
$10
y = 7643.2x + 8590.5
R² = 0.9814
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Projects
Linear ( Projects)
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 23
Completed Projects from 1 to 20kW using Cleaned up SunCentric Data
$/CEC PTC Watt by System Size in CEC PTC kW
$22
$20
$18
$ / CEC PTC Watt
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
850
900
18
19
20
System Size in CEC PTC kW
Projects
Completed Projects using Cleaned up SunCentric Data
$/CEC PTC Watt by System Size in CEC PTC kW
$22
$20
$18
$ / PTC CEC Watt
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
950 1,000 1,050
System Size in CEC PTC kW
Projects
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 24
In October 2007 we forecast that about 25MW of Residential projects would be completed by the end of
September 2008. The actual was 36.2MW. We expect a few more MW will be completed by year end
2008. However, the change in Residential Federal ITC to 30% uncapped from a limit of $2,000 will likely
temporarily slow completions as consumers decide to take advantage of greater incentives in 2009.
In Oct 2007 we
forecast about
25MW would
be completed
by the end of
Sept 2008.
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 25
In October 2007 we forecast that about 55MW of Non-Residential projects would be completed by the
end of September 2008. The actual was 53.4MW. We now doubt that we will achieve our forecast
(yellow) at year end 2008 of about 90MW.
In Oct 2007 we
forecast about
55MW would
be completed
by the end of
Sept 2008.
© SunCentric Inc.
Page | 26

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