a year of mixed performance - Epsilon

Transcription

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Republic of France
A YEAR OF MIXED PERFORMANCE
Report on the 1991 French National accounts
English Edition
=
t,
INSTITUT NATIONAL
ECONOMIQUES
Republic of France
Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques
B BLIOTIiÉOUF
A YEAR OF MIXED PERFORMANCE
REPORT ON THE 1991 FRENCH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
ENGLISH EDITION
Directeur de la publication: Jean-Claude Milleron
© Copyright 1992 by Insee.
Ail rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by photostat,
microfilm, xerography, or any other means, or incorporated into any information retrieval
system, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose other than those defined in article 41 of the
French copyright law of March 11, 1957, without the written permission of Insee.
2 1991 NATIONAL ACCOUN'IS
Note to the English edition
At the end of June, Insee issues the Rapport sur les comptes de la Nation (report
on national accounts), which analyzes the economic developments of the
preceding year and serves as the basis for preparing the country's next budget.
The report is prepared by the Institute on behalf of the French government and in
collaboration with the Direction de la Prévision (finance ministry forecasting
office), the Comptabilité Publique (government accounting office), and the Bank
of France. The full report on the 1991 accounts, drafted under the supervision of
Laurent Caussat and Philippe Mills, contains the following sections:
•
The standard year-in-review section.
•
Three special chapters:
A summary of the determinants of employment and unemployment trends in
France in the 1980s.
- A study on the need to control social spending and on the ways of doing so:
France's social spending is now growing faster than its national product and the
compensation of employees.
A review of the latest developments in the theory of growth.
•
Twenty-six notes on individual topics, grouped under five sections:
1.Econômic activity and enterprises. Features a summary of French
government policy toward business, an analysis of the role of equity, and the
latest figures on French investment abroad and inward investment in France.
2.
Prices, wages and salaries, employment, and household income. discusses
such issues as the differentials in price movements by economic sector, and
the rising indebtedness of French households.
3.The international environment and external trade. Analyzes the structural
causes for the fall in non-energy commodity prices, the conditions for the
convergence of Europe's economies, and the role of tourism in the French
external balance.
4.Money markets and financial markets. Focuses on the improved returns on
life-insurance policies and the contraction in housing loans.
5.
General government. Reviews factors affecting the government's economic
and social programs, such as the rising budget deficit, the impact of the
decentralization program begun in 1982, and the funding of the current social
security system and unemployment insurance.
To order copies of the original French edition, please use the order form (page 27).
This English abstract of the year-in-review section was prepared by Edmonde
Naulleau (Insee) and Jonathan Mandelbaum (translator and editorial consultant).
1991 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 3
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CONTENTS
Sharp slowdow in France's real economic growth
Business investment : a sizable drop
Household income consumption : a deceleration
Export : the most dynamic component of demand
Nominal growth in aggregates broadly under control
Reduction in the nations net borrowing
Moderate financial flows and market stability
A distinct deceleration in wages, salaries, and prices
Spiraling social security expenditures
The worsening employment situation
7
7
12
15
16
19
19
22
24
25
SHARP SLOWDOWN IN FRANCE'S REAL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
The growth in domestic demand slowed sharply from mid-1990, reaching an
annual average of only 1.1% in 1991 after averaging 4.1% in the five preceding
years. Ail demand components weakened: the hardest hit was business
investment, which shrank 3.8% from its third-quarter 1990 peak to year-end
1991, but household spending was also significantly affected (table 0). Changes
in inventories were fairly erratic during the year, but their overall contribution to
growth was slightly negative as company managers responded to uncertainty by
drawing them down. In contrant, external trade provided sizable support to
economic activity in 1991. The slump in foreign demand was partly offset by
gains in market share during the second half, while the sag in domestic demand
sharply curtailed import growth (chart Q).
Business investment: a sizable drop
The business investment rate recorded its first decline in 1991 since 1985. Last
year, the investment rate of private enterprises lost one percentage point to
16.8%, just higher than in 1987 and still well above its 1984 level of 14.2%
(chart ©).
Executives scaied down their equipment expenditure plans. The adjustment was
partly due to the relative deterioration in corporate performance, already
perceptible in 1990 in the form of narrower margins and declining solvency.
Another aggravating circumstance was the persistence of a high cost of funds:
according to the Bank of France, interest rates on medium- and long-term
91.2
91.3
91.4
-0.2
1.6
0.6
-1.6
1.1
3.1
0. I
-1.7
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.6
0.6
1.0
0.9
I.I
-0.7
-0.4
0.8
-0.2
-1.4
-1.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
1.3
-0.6
2.2
3.0
1.0
-0.1
0.0
0.6
8.4
1.9
3.8
2.1
9.6
0.2
0.8
-0.0
0.1
(1.6
0.6
91.1
Applications
Market gross domestic product
Imports
Sources
Household consumption
Government consomption
Total gross fixed capital fromation
of which :
corporate and unincorporated
enterprises
Households excduding
unincorporated enterprises
orner
Exports
Change in inventories (FFbn)
Domestic demand
(incl. inventories)
Ressources
e and
uses of
market goods
and services,
1991.
Quarterly
real growth
rates at 1980
prices
Source : Quarterly accounts, detailed founh-quarter results, Insec
O Contributions
to GDP
growth I
2
0
-2
(I) In real terms ut previous year's prices.
1990
Source .• Comptes de la Nation 1991, Insee
1991
8 Investment
rate 1
(%)
22
2/
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12 '
1IIl1l1l111I
11111
I
70 7/ 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 8/ 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
(1) Ratio of gross fixed capital formation to value added.
Corporate and quasi-corporate enterprises, excluding large public-sector firms.
Source : Comptes de la Nation 1991, Insee
8 1991 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
corporate loans averaged 10.61% in 1991 compared with 10.58% in 1990.
Between 1990 and 1991, the productive capacity utilization rate slipped from
86.5% to 83.4%.
Overall corporate investment lost 4.3% in real tenus in 1991, with
particularly steep falls of 17.1% in mechanical engineering and 14.9% in the
electrical and electronics equipment industries (table ©).
The corporate self-financing ratio moved up a modest 1.3 points after a twoyear decline, as investment receded more sharply than gross saving (-2% and
-0.7% respectively) (chart ®).
The downturn in the corporate saving rate was notably due to higher labor
costs and financial charges (chart 0).
The trend in the allocation of value added between wages and profits has
been less favorable to enterprises, possibly on account of the lag shown by
employment in adjusting to slower growth-a phenomenon especially visible
in manufacturing. The rise in real wages and salaries-net of productivity
gains-accounts for nearly all the erosion of the operating margin (chart ©).
The slight increase in the share of intermediate consumption in value added
has played only a small role in that trend. The growth in the insolvency ratio
of private enterprises in 1991 confirms the worsening of corporate financial
positions over the part three years (chart O).
1983-1987
1988
1989
1990
-1.65
11.60
7.45
13.20
5.90
20.2
7.5
3.3
26.1
24.5
-4.6
10.0
5.6
8.5
9.0
5.5
13.3
12.1
13.3
7.4
-6.1
-9.7
-15.0
-2.3
-9.7
7.3
13d
6.5
10.8
-9.4
Construction
Wholesale/retail trade
Otherservices
1.30
8.90
12.00
16.1
-2.6
15.0
4.1
5.6
13.1
-2.3
1.4
1.5
-6.6
-3.7
-0.4
Total services
11.2
10.8
11.5
1.5
-1.1
8.0
10.9
9.6
3.9
-4.3
Agriculture and fonds
Iintermediate goods
Producer durables
Automotive
Consummer gonds
Total Industry
(excluding energy)
GRAND TOTAL
1991
Productive
investment by
branch
Average annual real growth rates al 1980 prices. corporate and quasi-corporate enterprises.
Source : Comptes de la Nation 1991. !nsee.
1991 NATIONALACCOUNTS 9
Self-tinancing
ratio *
(%)
110
100
Self-financing ratio
90
in the strict sense (1)
80
_
A
\ i
% I
60
Self-financing ratio
in the broad sense (2)
l~
\/
50
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
Ratio of gross saving to gross fixed capital formation.
(1)
Ratio of (gross saving + capital transfers) to (gross fixed capital formation + change in
(2)
inventories + purchases of land and intangible assets).
(*) Corporate and quasi-corporate enterprises, excluding large public-sector firms.
Source: Comptes de la Nation 1991, Insee
© Corporate
saving rate I
(%)
/9 -
/8
17 /6
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
70 71 72 73 74 75
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
(1) Ratio of gross saving to value added.
© Operating
(%)
33
margin
(profit
margin) 1
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
(1) Ratio of gross operating surplus to value added.
45
O Incidence
(%)
of finance
charges
40
35
30
25
20
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
(1) Ratio of finance charges to gross operating surplus.
1991 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS II
While the corporate borrowing requirement for operations and internai growth
(investment) diminished in 1991, external growth through shareholding
acquisitions and equity investments remained buoyant. French companies have
been handicapped in their self-financing capability by the steady decline in their
saving rate since 1989. As a result, they have financed their growth largely via
stock issues and medium-to-long-terra credit. That marks a shift from 1983-88,
when the growth in operating margins allowed firms to reduce their debt
significantly (table 0).
Household income and consumption: a deceleration
Household income did flot experience the full impact of the slackness of the
economy in 1991. Indeed, the share of household disposable income in GDP
edged up to 68.8% from 68.1% in 1990 (chart e).
There was a markeddeceleration in real household income, which gained only
1.8% compared with 3.2% in 1990 and 3.9% in 1989. The slowdown stemmed
from higher tax levies as well as the weaker growth of gross compensation of
employees, gross operating surpluses of unincorporated enterprises, and property
and entrepreneurial income (table ©).
% of value added
Private firms
sources and
applications
of funds
Average
1989
1990
1991
16,6
2,7
3,1
2,1
0,2
19,4
8,0
8,3
1,9
0,3
19,3
6,5
6,9
4,0
0,8
18,3
6,6
5,5
0,9
0,1
14,1
0,6
5,4
3,4
1,5
-0,3
17,2
0,8
7,4
7,9
4,6
0,0
16,0
0,9
6,9
6,5
6,6
0,6
15,4
1,0
7,3
7,5
0,6
-0,4
1984-1988
Sources
Investmentt
Equity purchases
Working-capital requiement2
Liquid assets an investments3
Balancing item
Applications
Gross saving
Net capital transfers
Equity issues
Long- and medium-term debt
Short-term debt
Negotiable debt4
(1)
Gross fixed capital formation and net purchases of land and intangible assets.
(2)
Change in inventories and commercial loans (including the hard-to-interpret "accounting discrepancies"
item).
(3)
Includes mutual-fund shares.
(4)
Bonds and money-market instruments.
74
(%)
O Grosshousehold
disposable
income as
share of GDP
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
70
80
75
85
89 90 91
r/
Gross wages and salaries (a)
Social security contributions actually
paid out (b)
Net wages end salaries ((a) - (b))
Social benefits received
Income and wealth taxes
Property income 2
Gross operating suplus of
unincorporated enterprises
Gross diposable income
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
0.7
2.7
2.8
3.5
1.5
6.8
-0.3
0,4
1.3
4.4
5.0
2.2
3.8
- 2.4
2.8
8.0
1.8
2.1
2.0
16.0
3.8
3.4
3.0
2.7
4.9
-0.2
1.8
3.5
14.53
3.8
0.8
0.4
3.1
3.2
7.1
3.9
2.3
3.2
0.4
1.8
Real household
O disposable
income : main
components 1
(I) Annual growth rate. The deflator applied is the consumer price using the previous year's consomption
pattern.
(2)Dividends + interest + land income + profit-sharing.
(3)Includes contribution sociale généralisée or CSG (new social security tax on total income).
Household consumption: a dip in 1991
Growth in household consumption slowed to a modest 1.3% in real terms last
year, continuing a downward trend begun the previous year, when the figure
slipped to 2.6% from 3.1% in 1989. Durable goods were principally responsible
for the slowdown. Consumption's share of GDP, however, rose slightly in 1991
(chart 0).
Saving rate: steady recovery since 1987
The household saving rate has been on an upward course since 1987, reaching
12.6% in 1991 after 12.2% in 1990 (chart O). Financial saving made a decisive
contribution to that advance, its share of household income rising from 2.8% in
1990 to 3.8% in 1991 due to the credit squeeze 1. The variation in liquid saving
was practically null, and the ratio of investment to household income was down
from the previous year. Meanwhile, the nonfinancial saving rate declined.
0Household
consumption
as share of
GDP
62
(%)
61
60
59
58
57
56
70
75
80
85
89 90 91
Source .• Comptes de la Nation 1991, lnsee
1. Thefinancial saving rate is equal to the change in assets minus the change in liabilities. In
accounting terras, a contraction in credit means an increase in financial saving.
22
21
20
19
Q Household
saving rate
(%)
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
14
10
ll
12
i
♦
10
Non-financial
saving rate
;
♦
Residential
investment rate (I)
8
Financial saving rate
6
.........
4
2
0
70
75
80
85
89 90 91
(1) Household residential investment = gross fixed capital formation of households
minus that of unincorporated enterprises.
Source: Comntes de la Nation 1991. Insee
Exports: the most dynamic component of demand
After the deterioration in the balance of trade in goods and services in 1990,
France registered an improvement in both categories last year. The contribution
of external trade to GDP growth became positive again, reaching 0.4 points as in
1989. While merchandise exports and tourism revenues performed well, the good
overall result for 1991 is also largely due to the slump in imports, which affected
goods, services, and tourism expenditures.
Exports: a nearly one-point contribution to real GDP growth
The positive trade pattern is largely due to the growth in merchandise
exports-up 4.5% in real terms-and in particular to the 4.9% real jump in
exports of industrial products. These results, made possible by the continued
firmness of global demand in 1991, reflect a distinct improvement in export
performance during the year. It should be noted, however, that the sharp
growth in tourism "exports," up 4.8% in real terms, had a fairly significant
impact on the overall result. On balance, the one-point contribution of exports
to growth was modest by comparison with its contributions of 2.0 points in
1988, 2.7 points in 1989, and 1.5 points in 1990.
Imports: a very limited negative contribution
Imports grew moderately in ail major categories-including goods (up 2.7% by
volume), services (up 1.2% by volume), and tourism expenditures (down
2.1%). This sluggishness was tied to the weakness of French domestic
demand. The overall 0.5-point negative contribution of imports to GDP
growth was well below their negative contributions of 2.4 points in 1988, 2.3
points in 1989, and 1.8 points in 1990.
NOMINAL GROWTH IN AGGREGATES BROADLY UNDER CONTROL
Further reduction in French-German interest-rate differentials
Nineteen-ninety-one saw continued tightening of monetary links in Europe,
notably between France and Germany. For the fifth year in a row, the parities
of the French franc, Deutsche mark, and several other European Monetary
System currencies underwent no realignment, thus boosting EMS credibility
at least for the low-inflation countries. This convergence was illustrated by
the further narrowing of interest-rate differentials between France and
Germany. The only increase in the German rate that the Bank of France was
obliged to match was an 0.5-point rise in December-the last one of the year.
Spectacular reduction in the external trade deficit
After a slight deficit in 1990, the balance of trade in goods and services moved
back into surplus under the effect of improvements in both the goods account and
the services account (table ©). The deterioration in the capital-income account
was offset in 1991 by one-time revenues linked to the Gulf war. In consequence,
the current account registered a significant improvement as well.
For the first time since 1984, the manufacturing trade account posted a sharp
recovery in 1991 (table O). The energy bill continued to rise despite the 9%
annual average fall in the dollar price of oil. The positive trend in energy prices
was offset by three factors. First, the dollars average level in 1991 remained
slightly higher than in 1990. Second, France imported larger quantities of oil,
particularly as a result of restocking by petroleum companies. Lastly, the price of
gas, which is set with a lagged indexation on oil prices, incorporated in 1991 the
sharp increases of year-end 1990. The total agriculture and food surplus shrank
mainly as a result of a smaller surplus on the basic agricultural products account.
FFbn (current)*
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Gonds
-34
-66
-71
-94
-101
-87
Services
86
73
75
102
99
106
Total gonds and services
52
7
4
8
-2
20
Balance
of trade
in goods
and services
(I) CIF-FOB balance : includes ship and aircraft fueling. excludes miscellaneous.
Source:
Comptes de la Nation 1991. Insee
FFbn (current)
1989
1990
1991
48.13
34.11
14.02
51.01
34.52
16.49
44.30
28.48
15.82
-83.27
-93.05
-94.64
-55.91
-39.09
-19.18
17.33
3.57
-15.57
-26.63
27.23
4.55
-57.41
-40.23
-24.87
25.15
5.55
-14.09
-31.63
28.26
3.00
-33.92
-26.06
-9.16
33.15
9.00
-12.46
-34.06
14.67
2.25
CIF-FOB balance
-86.50
-96.45
-82.01
FOB-FOB balance
-43.94
-49.57
-30.19
Agricultural and food procucts, of which:
Agricultural products
Agrifoods industrv products
Energy
Manufactured gonds. of which :
Intermediate goods
Producer durables
Land transportation equipment.
Automobiles
Consumer durables
Consumer nondurables
Militay equipment
Miscellaneous
Source :
of
which:
Balance of
merchandise
trade
French customs
Favorable effects of German reunification
In 1991, the growth in total domestic demand was flot significantly greater among
France's major partners than in France itself: French domestic demand moved up
1,0 % versus 1.5% for the eleven EC partners and 1.2% for the fourteen OECD
partners 2. The special context created by German unification, however, gave a
powerful impetus to world demand for manufactured goods weighted by French
market share.
Trade surplus with the EEC
In 1991, France made spectacular progress along the dual course first charted the
previous year-a reduction in its bilateral deficit with Germany and a narrowing of
its deficit with the European Economic Community as a whole. For the first time
since 1975, France's exports to ihe EEC exceeded its imports from that zone. The
surplus for 1991 came to FF1.8 billion (table ©).
However, the deficit with OECD excluding the EEC worsened, principally on
account of the widening deficit with the U.S.-which, at FF48 billion, became
France's biggest bilateral deficit. Meanwhile, the deficit with Japan remained
stable at FF29 billion.
Similarly, the deficits with OPEC countries and with Eastern Europe and the
former Soviet Union stayed virtually unchanged at FF13 billion and FF17 billion
respectively for 1991. France's trade surplus with non-OPEC developing countries
jumped from FF8 billion to over FF12 billion.
0
FFbn (current)
French trade
balance by
broad
geographic
area1
EEC
1989
1990
1991
-55.2
-38.5
1.8
-100.6
-82.3
-39.2
OECD excluding EEC
-54.1
-64.9
-81.5
of which
-49.8
-64.4
-75.4
-9.3
-11.4
-12.7
of which inanufacturing 7
29.8
33.0
34.8
Developing countries excluding OPEC
7.8
12.4
ofwhich
: manufacturing 1
12.9
32.8
30.8
35.1
Countries with planned economies
-8.0
-17.2
-16.8
4.3
-2.7
-4.6
of which
OPEC
of which
: manufacturing t
: manufacturing t
:
: manufacturing
t
(1) Excludes military equipement and miscellaneous.
Source : French customs
(2) OECD figures weighted by individual country shares in French exports.
Reduction in the nation's net borrowing
Positive trend in invisibles trade and recovery in the basic balance
The trade surplus in invisibles improved in 1991 but remained well below its
1989 level (table 0). The narrowing of the current-account deficit, coupled with
a reduction in debt transfers and cancellations3 , led to a improvement in the basic
balance despite smaller net inflows of long-term capital (table O). Net direct
investment, down sharply for the past few years, posted a sizable gain in 1991.
French investment abroad shrank approximately FF40 billion, while direct
inward investment returned to its 1989 level, gaining FFI2 billion on 1990.
Moderate financial flows and market stability
Nineteen-ninety-one witnessed a distinct moderation in financial and investment
flows consecutive to the slowdown in activity. Non-financial agents, notably
enterprises, improved their financial positions, while interest rates remained
relatively high. The latter phenomenon was a factor in the stagnation of new
issues on the financial market. Steep interest rates also undoubtedly contributed
to the very sharp cutback in loan growth, as credit institutions became more
selective in their response to heightened lending risk.
Sizable slowdown in credit growth
Total lending to non-financial agents expanded 5.8% in 1991 compared with
9.8% in 1990 and 9.3% in 1989. Credits to households grew 2.5% versus 7.9%
in 1990 and 7.6% in 1989. The deceleration was even more pronounced for cash
advances and related facilities: these bore the full impact of the banks restrictive
credit policy in a context marked by overindebtedness and the constraints of the
Cooke ratio requirements 4. Business loans, cash facilities in particular, also
decelerated but less significantly, expanding 7,5% as against 14.8% in 1990 and
13.1% in 1989.
FFbn (curreut)
1989
1990
1991
Services effectively traded
Tourism
Total services
63.3
38.8
102.0
56.2
42.8
99.0
55.7
50.6
106.3
Distributive transactions
-35.3
-72.4
-60.8
66.7
26.6
45.5
-27.4
-74.2
-41.2
Total invisibles
National net borrowing
© Balance
of trade
in invisibles
Source : Bank of France. Economics and Finances Ministry
(3)Debt cancellations in the public and banking sectors, as well as lusses on debt
transfertransfers in the banking sector, are booked under "distributive transactions" in the
national accounts. In the balance of pavments, thev are recorded aniong "capital transfers
while their counterparts are shown under "long-terni loans"
(4)The Cook is the prescribed ininimum ratio of equitv to debt for commercial ban fs.
Balance of
payments'
FFbn (carrent)
1990
1991
-52.9
-29.9
56.4
-32.3
-3.2
35.8
A - Commercial credits
B - Direct investment {
1. French investment abroad
2. Foreign investment in France
7.5
-98.3
-/47.6
12.4
-47.4
-108.6
C -Other investment (public sector)
-2.9
-3.9
-5.3
8.7
-9.9
-1.6
/9.6
-22.3
/56.5
-46.1
79.0
-62.6
1 - Current transactions
Il - Capital transfers
111 - Long-term capital flows
D - Loans
1.Private non-hanking .sector
2. Banking sector
3. Public sector
E - Securities transactions
1. Foreign
2. French
3. Conditional instrument
- Basic balance (I + Il + 11I)
V - Short-term capital flows of private sector and balacing
item
VI - Total balance (IV + V)
VII- Change in external monetary position
IV
A - Banks
B - Public sector
49.4
-6.5
202.5
61.1
-4.3
-
143.8
-2,3
-26.4
0.4
-64.0
-90.4
90.4
0.4
0.8
-0.8
149.4
-30.6
-58.9
29.9
(I) Provisional figures tabulated April 10. 1992.
(2)The balance of payments records the economic and financial flows between residents and nonresidents.
Its scope differs from Chat of the national accounts. as it includes both metropolitan France and its overseas
départements and territories
(3)Direct investment abroad include startups of enterprises or local units. acquisitions of equity stakes of at
least 20 % in existing foreign enterprises. and parent-company financing of subsidiaries in the form of loans
or contributions to their capital increases.
Source :
Bank of France. Economics and Finances Ministry
Contraction of monetary aggregates accentuated by the enduring success of the Plan
d'Epargne Populaire and life-insurance products
France registered a major slowdown in monetary-aggregate growth as a result of
three factors: the lesser increase in credits, the lasting success of the tax-sheltered
saving plans known as Plans d'Epargne Populaire (PEPs), and the steady flow of
short-term investments abroad by non-financial agents. M3 growth plunged from
8.1% in 1990 to 3.6% in 199l.
The overall deceleration in monetary aggregates was accentuated by the recovery in
some categories of resident non-financial agents long-term investments-such as
stock or bond mutual funds, or direct investments in the financial market-and in the
sustained success of other categories, such as life-insurance products and PEPs.
(5) M3 comprises money and near-money excluding liquid investments. Growth rates ares
expressed as twelve-month changes on. fourth-quarter averages.
Financial market stability
New bond issues came to FF330.5 billion in gross terms in 1991, down FF6.5
billion from the previous year. Net issues totaled FF189.6 billion, or FF16 billion
less than in 1990. The downward trend is linked to the fairly sizable fallback in
bond investment by non-residents on the domestic market, which sank from FF67
billion to FF19 billion, even as residents increased their borrowing on international
markets by over FF20 billion.
The contraction in bond issues is chiefly attributable to credit institutions, which
trimmed their net new domestic bond issues to FF60 million from FF84 billion in
1990. General government, on the other hand, increased its bond debt from FF80
billion to FF87 billion, a development related to the worsening central-government
deficit and the yield-curve inversion. As a result, the general government's share of
total new bond issues expanded from 38.8% in 1990 to 45.8% in 1991.
New equity issues rose to FF242 billion from FF228 in 1990. The Paris Bourse
CAC 40 index gained 16% for the year after losing 24% in 1990. The increase in
new-issue volume was solely generated by the issuance of unlisted shares reserved
for selected subscribers. Meanwhile, non-residents continued to invest in French
equities: the inflow of funds reached FF97 billion, up FF16 billion on 1990.
The year 1991 was marked by a sharp reduction in purchases of short-term (i.e.
money-market) mutual funds. Part of the explanation lies in the unusually high
level of purchases recorded in 1990, when France launched capitalized mutual
funds and greatly reduced the tax exposure on money-market instruments. The
downturn was probably amplified by the increase in management fees charged to
fund investors. By contrast, net purchases of bond and stock mutual funds became
positive again, moving from -FF17.2 billion in 1990 to FF17.8 billion in 1991. The
distinct improvement in stock- and bond-market performance stimulated
purchases.
Disintermediation of corporate financing...
As financial institutions have curtailed their loan growth and have been
increasingly obliged to pay market rates for their funds, their interest-rate margins
have remained virtually stagnant. This pattern was offset, however, by the growth
in commission income.
The financial account of enterprises shows a relative disintermediation of
corporate financing. The proportion of resources procured on capital markets rose
from 42% in 1990 to 50% in 1990, with equity funding single-handedly jumping
from 29% to 40%.
.and consolidation of households 'financial investments
The analysis of households financial investments confirms the consolidation trend
observed in 1991:
- Liquid instruments, including money-market funds, have been distinctly
reduced.
- Investment flows recorded in the PI aggregate rernain significant, particularly for
contractual saving plans-which gained FF 15 billion in 1991 compared with FF6
billion in 1990-and PEPs, whose success has endured despite a slowdown in
inflows after the startup period from FF109 billion in 1990 to FF90 billion in 1991.
- Life-insurance instruments continued to grow briskly, accounting for 60% of
households financial investment flows in 1991 compared with 41% in 1990.
- Financial-market investments have recovered slightly.
A distinct deceleration in wages, salaries, and prices
In 1990, wage and salary growth had been relatively strong in comparison with
economic expansion. In 1991, the gap narrowed significantly. Disregarding pay
adjustments implemented in the course of 1991 but agreed upon previously,
basic-wage growth appears to have returned last year to a rate roughly equivalent
to that of prices.
Slower growth in nominal wages and salaries...
From mid-1990 to early 1991, the twelve-month change in the basic monthly
wage stayed at 5% 6. In the course of 1991, it eased to 3.8%.
In the central-government civil service, pay increases applied in the course of
1991 came to 2.4% in 1991 compared with 3.9% during 19907. Assuming an
unchanged age distribution of the workforce 8, private-sector pay rose 4.3% over
the previous year, compared with 4.9% in 1990. In the central-government civil
service, increases ranged between 3.3% and 3.9% after 4.0% in 1990. Including
seniority effects, the average compensation of employees actually at work rose
6.5% in 1991 versus 6.1% in 1990 in the private sector, and 6% versus 5.4% in
central government.
...partly reflected in real wages
The decrease in wage and salary growth on a constant-workforce basis was partly
offset by price deceleration. As a result, the wage-price growth-rate differential in
constant francs narrowed from 1.5% in 1990 to 1.1% in 1991 in the private sector
and from 0.8% to 0.7% respectively in the public sector.
The rate of employee social-security contributions, which averaged 16.7% in
1989 and 1990, edged down to 16.0% in 1991. The combined total of social
security contributions and the new social security tax called contribution sociale
généralisée or CSG represented 16.9% of wages and salaries in 1991. Net real
compensation after CSG rose on average by just under one percentage point in the
private sector and remained stable in the public sector.
(6)ACEMO surveyfigurey.
(7)The civil-service pay index takes into account both the general provisions and statutory
provisions for special categories of employees, excluding allowance premiums.
(8)This statistical procedure eliminates the distortion induced by the "career effect" in yearon-year comparisons of pay raines.
French inflation rate among the lowest in 1991
In 1991, France's retail price index rose 3.1% December-over-December and
3.2% on an annual average, compared with 3.4% for both indicators in 1990 (9).
After two years of more robust increases, consumer prices have thus fallen back
to their 1987-88 growth rates. The fall in energy prices-after their 1990
surge-contributed 0.6 points to the deceleration in the overall index. France's
price performance in 1991 puts its inflation rate among the world's lowest.
Apart from the downturn in energy prices, the key development in prices was the
deceleration in private-sector services from 5.4% in 1990 to 4.8% in 1991-their
lowest level since fall 1989. In the course of the past two decades, such
moderation has hardly been matched except for the period just prior to the lifting
of price controls in 1987.
Growth in food prices stabilized at an annual 3%. Private-sector manufacturedgoods prices accelerated from 2% to 2.9%. However, after adjusting for VAT
variations, the acceleration came to only 0.2 points, from 2.6% to 2.8%. The
underlying rate of inflation, which excludes energy and food products, advanced
from 3.2% to 3.6%, but only from 3.5% to 3.6% after adjustment for VAT
effects.
Increase in the budget deficit and government net borrowing
Total government net borrowing increased by two-thirds between 1990 and 1991
despite the one-time payment of FF21.5 billion in debt cancellations to less
developed countries, which burdened the deficit in 1990 (table 1).
The accounts of the social security funds registered a shift from a net lending
position of FF8.7 billion in 1990 to a net borrowing position of FF14 billion in
1991. The FF22.7-billion deterioration was partly due to a 7% surge in
unemployment benefits.
FFbn (current)
1990
Central government
lncluding (FSC)'
Excluding FSC
% of GDP
Miscellaneous central government agencies
-117.3
-112.7
-1.7
1991
- 130.6
-131.6
-1.9
+18.2
+12.0
Local govemment
-1.4
-7.2
Social security funds
+8.7
-14.0
-87.2
-1.3
-140.8
-2.1
Total general govemment (excluding FSC)
% of GDP
(1) FSC :
Fonds de Stabilisation des Changes (foreign-exchange stablilization fund).
Source : Comptes de la Nation 1991. lnsee
Unless otherwise specified, the price changes listed in this subsection
are expessed on a twelve-rnonth basis rather than an animal average or
annualized basis.
(9)
® Generalgovernment net
borrowing (-)/
lending (+) by
subsector
Excluding the foreign-exchange stabilization fund (FSC), the central government
deficit widened by about FF20 billion from 1990 to 1991 as expendituresoutpaced
revenues by 4.1% versus 2.9% respectively.
The sharp slowdown in economic activity affected tax receipts. Taxes linked to
production rose onlyl.7%, while net VAT collection edged down 0.4%. Corporate
and individual income taxes registered contrasting patterns. Receipts from the net
tax on corporate profits shrank 16%-reflecting the poor results of 1990, provisions
for expected adverse results in 1991, and a cut in the tax on distributed earnings.
By contrast, receipts from individual income tax jumped 25.9% under the
combined effect of robust earnings in 1990, deferred taxes on 1989 income, and
the institution of the contribution sociale généralisée in 1991, which brought in
FF29.7 billion.* Excluding the CSG, a levy allocated directly to social benefits,
the growth in individual income tax revenues came to 15%.
The ratio of public spending to GDP, up 0.5 points in 1990, gained another 0.9
points last year. More than half of the increase was attributable to social benefits,
the remainder to EC transfer payments, aid to developing countries, and the public
debt service. Compensation to government employees as well as investment rose
by 0.1 points of GDP but their respective rates of increase, 5.5% and 5.9%,
remained stable compared with 1990.
The rate of compulsory contributions has been virtually static for the past three
years, totaling 43.9% of GDP in 1991 (table (D).
Spiraling social security expenditures
Social security levies measured by actual social contributions now represent over
20% of French GDP, up from only 12.7% twenty years ago. One-fifth of the
national wealth created each year is therefore channeled through the varions social
insurance funds to be distributed as social benefits. The increase in this summary
indicator gives an idea of the sustained pace of social spending in the course of
the last two decades. In the same period, the share of social benefits in gross
household disposable income has climbed from 23% to 34%. A similar trend is
observed in OECD countries as a group, although some have begun stabilizing
their social expenditures.
Compulsory
levies
FFhn (current)
Taxes (a)
of which
Central government
Local governsnent
Social contributions' (b)
Total general-government compulsory
Levies (c = a + b)
Levies for EEC (d)
Total compulsory levies (c+d)
1988
1989
1990
1991
22.9
22.7
22.6
22.3
/6.7
5.9
/6.6
6.0
/6.4
6.0
15.9
6.2
19.7
19.9
20.1
20.4
42.6
1.2
43.8
42.6
I.1
43.7
42.7
0.9
43.7
42.7
1.2
43.9
(1) Social security contributions proper + taxes for funding social security agencies.
This sharp upward spiral has major economic consequences. The 1991 figures
reflect its immediate impact on the financing of social security funds, as well as
the ensuing efforts to control spending more closely and improve financing
procedures. To meet its borrowing requirements-aggravated by the economic
slowdown-the system was obliged to increase the employee contribution to the
health insurance fund by 0.9 points as from July 1, 1991. Meanwhile, numerous
measures have been planned or enacted to tighten the control of health insurance
spending. The measures trimmed expenditures by about FF4 billion in 1991. The
government and the health insurance funds also signed a protocol on October 25,
1991, laying down guidelines to promote "control of rises in health insurance
expenditures." Within that framework, agreements have already been signed with
some medical professions that should allow a reduction of nearly FFI billion in
health spending in 1992 relative to its trend level.
The ambiguities
of local government financing
France's governmental decentralization, begun ten years ago, has largely
influenced the pattern of public revenues and expenditures. Since 1982, local
government spending has risen by an annual average 3.5% in real terms, central
government spending by only 1.3%. Capital outlays have been especially
buoyant, in particular since 1985, when local authorities were made responsible
for school facilities, for transportation infrastructure investment, and for
improving the functioning of local community facilities. The burden of debt
service has also climbed steeply for local authorities, rising from 7.6% to 8.4%
of their spending between 1980 and 1990. The surge was due to the abolition of
low-interest loans and the increase in real interest rates. The sustained growth in
spending has had as its counterpart a sharp increase in two revenue components:
first, local taxes proper, which moved from 3% of GDP in 1981 to 4% in 1991,
and now represent over half of local-government operating revenues; second,
transfers of central-government tax receipts to local communities, up from 1.% to
2.2% of GDP between 1981 and 1991
THE WORSENING EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
The slowdown in French growth since mid-1989 has affected employment with a
lag of about one year.
Layoffs resume in manufacturing and construction
The manufacturing industry, harder hit than other sectors by the cyclical
downturn, responded by cutting nearly 100,000 jobs, in contrast to the very slight
reductions of 1990. Apart from a few intermediate-goods industries such as glass,
paper, and cardboard, job fosses ranged across the entire manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, market services continued to hire in 1991, although at a slower pace.
Despite a deceleration at the start of the year, job creations in market business
services remained buoyant, gaining 4.1% in 1991 versus 6.6% the year before.
Market services to individuals, a sector that tends to be more immune to
economic cycles, registered a slight slowdown in employment growth, with a dip
from 2.7% in 1990 to 2.4% in 1991.
"Employment-solidarity contracta" stimulate the nonmarket services sector
With an employment growth rate of 1.8% in 1991, nonmarket services are the
only sector to have improved their 1990 figure. This performance is a result of
the rapid build-up in the "employment-solidarity contracts" program (contrats
emploi-solidarité or CESs). By year-end 1990, there were 170,000 CES
beneficiaries at work, plus 5,000 holders of community jobs known as travaux
d'utilité collective or TUCs. By year-end 1991, the total had risen to 245,000.
However, the slower growth in the central-govemment workforce and, possibly,
some substitution effects between CES-holders and other wage- and salaryeamers dampened the growth rate of nonmarket employment.
Nonwage and nonsalary jobs continued their rapid downward course. The
number of farmers seems to have kept falling at the came sustained pace of 4-5%
a year recorded rince 1988. Conversely, nonwage and nonsalary employment in
other sectors apparently continued to play the "cyclical shock absorber" role
observed in recent years, its rate of decrease having slowed in manufacturing and
construction.
Rising unemployment: a reflection of job losses in manufacturing
and the sharp growth in the workforce
After a three-year decline, unemployment began rising in mid-1990 and its growth
rate accelerated in 1991. By year-end, the unemployment rate had climbed 0.9
points to 9.8% of the workforce, representing 235,000 additional jobless.
The expansion of the workforce calculated from this unemployment estimate and
from the employment-level estimate seems greater than the trend increase
inferred from population changes and from shifts in economic-activity behavior.
Yet statisticians have observed no unusual influxes of new job-seekers-whether
young people or adult women-in the labor market. Furthermore, the quantitative
impact of employment policy measures on the workforce was practically neutral
in 1991. The number of unemployed eligible for training and job-finding
programs has actually diminished, whereas the retraining programs for dismissed
employees have been expanding. However, the surge in the number of
"employment-solidarity" contracts may have created pressures in the labor
market, with young people preferring to leave school for half-time jobs paid on a
minimum-wage basis.
Overall, the employment trend may have been more negative than initial
estimates suggest, and the increase in the ILO-defined unemployment rate may
also need revision.
Original 2-volume French edition of
1991 A year of mixed performance
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•French economic performance in 1991
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•Chronology of the year's main economic events in
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(paperback, 21 x 29,7 cm, 392 pp.)
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REVUE MENSUELLE DE L'INSEE
Alors que Michel Rocard a promis pour le printemps prochain
l'ouverture d'un , Grenelle » des retraites,
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Étranger
avion : 718 F
ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE
Revue centrale de l'INSEE, ses articles traitent de sujets couvrant
un vaste champ de la réalité sociale et économique de notre pays
sans oublier la dimension européenne.
Abonnement 1 an (11 numéros)
Édition sur papier .• France : 410EÉtranger avion : 628 F
Étranger :
513 F
INSEE RESULTATS
Les données détaillées des enquêtes et opera titis
statistiques de !'INSEE.
INSEE RÉSULTATS
col articulé vit 5 thèmes : • Economie générale
• Démographie- société • Consommation-modes de vie
• Système productif • Emploi-revenus.
Il est possible de s'abonner u un, plusieurs ou mus les thcnms
.
Abonnement INSEE RÉSULTATS
Économie générale (20 numéros)
France : 1 365 F - Étranger : 1 706 F - Étranger avion : 1 981 F
Démographie-Société 17 numéros!
France : 478 F - Étranger : 598 F - Étranger avion : 693 F
Consornmatian-Modes de vie (8 numéros!
France : 546 F - Étranger : 683 F - Étranger avion : 793 F
F r nc : productil (25 nger : a )
nger avion : 2 478 F
Frence : 1 706 F Étranger : 2 133 F - Étranger
Emploi-revenus (20 numéros)
France : 1 365 F - Étranger : 1 706 F - Étranger avion : 1 981 F
Ensemble des 5 - Étr s er no 8 25 F
France : 5 460 F - Evanger : 6 825 F - Étranger avion : 7 925 F
Abonnement sur microfiches INSEE RÉSULTATS
(ensemble des thémesl
France :2415 F - Etranger : 3 019 F - Etranger avion :3969 F
ANNALES D'ÉCONOMIE ET DE STATISTIQUE
Des travaux originaux de recherche théorique ou
appliquée dans les domaines de l'économie, de
l'économétrie et de la statistique.
Abonnement 1 an (4 nurnerosl
Édition sur papier: France : 400 F - Étranger : 500 F
Étranger avion . 540 F
Pour les particuliers : Abonnement 1 an (4 numérosl
France : 146 F - Étranger : 183 F
Étranger avion r 223 F
e
36. S
36.1 6
Ou
O e
INSEE
1
' ''1
mais aussi
Les publications a L'actualité économique
Les résultats du recensement de la populahon ...
INSEE IVI ETHODES
INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES
La méthodologie des travaux de l'INSEE et les modèles.
Vente exclusive au numéro dans les observatoires
économiques régionaux de l'INSEE
Veuillez noter mon abonnement aux publications suivantes
INSEE PREMIÈRE ...............................
INSEE RÉSULTATS
Economle générale
.............................
- Démographie - Société ...............................
I
- Consommation - Modes de vie ......................... -1
- Système productif .................................
- Emploi - revenus ....................................
- Tous thèmes ................................. ......
INSEE RESULTATS (sur microfiches, tous thèmes) ............. .]
ÉCONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE
......
................
ANNALES D'ÉCONOMIE ET DE STATISTIQUE ................
BULLETIN D'ABONNEMENT
A retourner à : INSEE - CNGP BP 2718 80027 AMIENS Cedex
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Activité
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.....................
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CODE INSEE
AJACCIO
ALSACE
14, rue Adolphe-Seyboth,
FRANCHE-COMTÉ
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Immeuble "L.e Major', 83, rue de Dole,
67084 STRASBOURG CEDEX
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Tél.: 88 52 40 40
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31054 TOULOUSE CEDEX
7'él.: 61 36 61 13
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69401 LYON CEDEX 03,
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93-95 me de Géale,
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Tél.: 78 63 23 33
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♦
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t
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'l'él.: 19.59091 5980
GUADELOUPE
IEIEFELEFI I IiEU'I M'1IE1EfliliIfIf kifIH[If
~. 41!_11 i l j '?
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Rue Paul Lacavé, BP 96 9710:
Tél.: 19.590 81 42 50
•., t_i
1' 7212
DEX
$M'EII
f
oral
AINTE-CLOTILDE
C. 3028u
Dép ar.......
..........................~..
T'
~7~prn~
p
18, bd Adolphe Pinard
E UW LIUEJ ES
75675 Paris Cedex 14 - FRANCE
E O~ S
acr.. fi n
/Ya ir
ou ou
Fax : (1) 41 1766 66
Télex : 204 924 P INSEE
0
In a difficult international context. French economic activity slowed in 1991.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.2% in real ternis compared with 2.2% in
1990 and 3.8% in 1989. The business investment rate declined by one
percentage point, but real household income succeeded in gaining 1.8%.
Thanks to buoyant German demand and gains in conipetitiveness, France was
able to reduce its trade deficit. This good performance reflects the efforts to
restrict nominal increases in key variables in recent years: inflation has been
kept at close to 3% since 1987; France's public debt and budget deficit are
among the lowest in the OECD; but the economic slowdown sharply
aggravated the general government deficit in 1991.
On balance, therefore, the French economy is poised to respond promptly to
an upturn in the global environment. That optimistic assessment is, however,
clouded by the surge in unemployment, which makes 1991 appear as a year of
mixed performance.
This booklet, specially prepared for English-speaking readers, provides a
convenient summary of the year-in-review section of the original 1991
Rapport sur les comptes de la Nation, issued by Insee on behalf of the French
government.
9 782110 660701
ISSN 1 140 5252 / IBSN 2-II-066070-6 / RAPCNA 91 / Price FF30
M
m
O
O
Z
—1
I
m

a year of mixed performance - Epsilon

Transcription

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